Norada Real Estate Investments

How Long Will This Recession Last?

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How Long Will This Recession Last?Our economy has been in a recession for over a year. It contracted rapidly towards the end of 2008, and is likely to continue contracting through the first half of 2009 and probably beyond.

What exactly is a recession?

The generally accepted definition of a recession is a country’s drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters. The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines economic recession as: “a significant decline in the economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

United States Recessions

Since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. However, since 1980 there have been eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and only four periods considered recessions: [Read more…]

Real Estate Investing in 2009

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Real Estate Investing in 2009

Investors have clearly felt the pinch of a capital crunch and slumping U.S. economy. In fact, 60% of real estate investors cite availability of financing as their top concern in 2009 – according to a recent study conducted by Marcus & Millichap and National Real Estate Investor.

The cost and availability of capital remain top concerns for investors as illiquidity in capital markets continues to drag down investment real estate sales. Most respondents are not optimistic that access to capital will improve anytime soon. Nearly 40% of respondents expect debt financing to be more difficult to obtain a year from now, while 37% expect financing to be about the same, and 23% expect it to be easier to obtain.

Refinancing could pose some added challenges to an already cash-strapped market.

Nearly 40% of respondents say they need to refinance at least a portion of their portfolio in the coming year. The greatest hurdles to refinancing cited by respondents are underwriting terms (45%), economic factors (44%), and higher cost of capital (36%).  [Read more…]

Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2009

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The U.S. and world economies are about to suffer through some of the worst recessions in the postwar period. Most measures of economic and financial activity look like they fell off a cliff in September and October, and have been deteriorating at an alarming rate ever since. The United States is now officially in a recession that started in December 2007. Japan and many European countries are in the same boat. At the same time, growth in most emerging markets is faltering. IHS Global Insight now believes that global growth will be in the 0.0 – 0.5% range during 2009, compared with 2.7% in 2008.

  1. THE U.S. RECESSION WILL BE ONE OF THE DEEPEST — IF NOT THE DEEPEST — IN THE POSTWAR PERIOD.
    The current downturn is well on its way to becoming the longest in the past six decades. Based on the December IHS Global Insight baseline forecast for the U.S. economy, it will be the fourth deepest in the postwar period (the 1957 recession was the deepest, followed by the contractions of 1973 – 75 and 1981– 82). Nevertheless, given the very negative tone of the incoming data (including the 533,000 drop in November payrolls), the recession could well be the worst in the postwar period. At the same time, the large back-to-back declines in real GDP predicted for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 (down 5.0% and 3.8%, respectively) are the worst since the 1982 recession, and may easily be the worst in more than six decades. Overall, we expect the U.S. economy to shrink at least 1.8% in 2009.
  2. THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKS WILL KEEP CUTTING RATES.
    The race to zero is on! The Fed has already cut the federal funds rate to 1% and is likely to take it all the way to zero by the end of January. Once the overnight rate is at zero, the Fed may have to engage in “quantitative easing” (direct purchases of long-term Treasuries). It is already engaging (massively) in unorthodox measures such as buying commercial paper, mortgage-backed securities, credit card debt, and loans to small businesses, students, and car buyers. On December 4, the European Central bank joined the fray by cutting the overnight rate by 75 basis points (to 2.5%), while the Bank of England cut by 100 basis points (to 2.0%). IHS Global Insight now believes that the ECB and BoE will push rates all the way to 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively—and could cut all the way to zero. Most central banks around the world have followed suit. Notably, on November 26, the People’s Bank of China lowered rates by 108 basis points, the largest cut in 11 years and the fourth cut since mid-September.

    3. [Read more…]

Where's the Bottom of the Housing Market?

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Speaking in general terms, we may be far from a bottom in the national real estate housing market. Perhaps the government bailout plans and lower interest rates will help, but I remain skeptical that we will reach a bottom by the second quarter of 2009 – today's general consensus.  Why?

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 10% of American homeowners are either behind on payments or in foreclosure. This data has been tracked for over 29 years, and we are at an all-time high, as you might have guessed.

These high numbers suggest that loans to sub-prime borrowers, who perhaps shouldn't have gained approval, are only part of the problem. The sub-prime market got the ball rolling, but now unemployment is making that ball accelerate at a frightening speed.

The U.S. economy lost 1.55 million jobs in the last 6 months. That's the biggest loss of jobs in 30 years. To put this in a little more perspective, 1.55 million is nearly the number of jobs that were lost in the 2001 recession including the months following September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Unfortunately it gets worse.

637,000 people were not counted in the official jobless numbers because they've stopped looking for work, effectively removing themselves from the employment pool.

Another 621,000 people have apparently settled for part-time work because they can't find full-time work. These people count as employed, but it's pretty obvious they will not be contributing much to the GDP by way of spending.

Where's the bottom?

We will reach a bottom of the housing market once we have Stabilization.

Stabilization means the end is in sight. The day will come when the rate of layoffs will slow down and corporate cost-cutting has been done.  However, the latest employment numbers suggest we are a long ways off.

What should you do?

As mentioned in our blog post, “Is it a Good Time to Invest in Real Estate?“, there is an abundance of good real estate deals all over the country today. With real estate values and mortgage rates at historic lows, finding property with neutral or positive cash flow is not difficult to do.

Again, be sure to do your research and buy in markets with the strongest economic fundamentals, then hold on for the long term in order to gain the highest returns.

Is it a Good Time to Invest in Real Estate?

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As we watch the U.S. economy head for its deepest and longest recession since World War II, we ask ourselves if this is a good time to invest in real estate? Especially now as mounting job losses take their toll on consumer confidence and spending.

Last month, U.S. employers cut payrolls at the fastest pace in 34 years as the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, the highest level since 1993. The 533,000 drop brought cumulative job losses to 1.91 million this year according to the Labor Department in Washington.

Keep in mind that the actual U.S. unemployment rate may be as high as 11% to 13% since the rate published by the Labor Department excludes people who have been unemployed longer than 12 consecutive months.

Additionally, U.S. stocks fell for the fourth time in five weeks as the worsening job market added to concern the recession is deepening.

John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the jobs report suggests that the economy shrank at annual rate of 5 percent in the final three months of the year. That would be the biggest contraction since the first quarter of 1982.

So, with all the negative news about our economy is this a good time to invest in real estate?

The short answer is an absolute YES!  Why?

The answer was clearly stated by Sir John Templeton, the legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer.  He said, “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”

There is an abundance of good real estate deals all over the country today. With real estate values and mortgage rates at historic lows, finding property with neutral or positive cash flow is not difficult to do.

Be sure to do your research and buy in markets with the strongest economic fundamentals, then hold for the long term in order to gain maximum returns.

Remember that people will always need a place to live!

Investing in San Antonio, Texas

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Founded by Spanish missionaries in the early 1700s, San Antonio, Texas is now the seventh largest city in the United States and the fastest growing region of the state. It is located halfway between the nation's east and west coasts and near other major Texan cities such as Austin, Houston and Corpus Christi.

Considered a gateway of foreign trade, San Antonio is recognized by Business Facilities magazine as one of the five major logistical locations in the country for warehousing and distribution. It benefits from its proximity to Mexico and has reaped the economic rewards of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Over half of the goods moving in and out of Mexico pass through the city of San Antonio and this trade is expected to grow. Plus, thirty percent of the city's retail market demand comes from shoppers living in Mexico.

San Antonio was the nation's second fastest growing major city from 1990 to 2000 according to the US Census Bureau. During that decade, the city grew 14.5 percent to a population of 1,144,646. The reported 2007 population estimate is 1,259,735 indicating a growth rate of 1.4 percent per year over the past seven years.

[Read more…]

What You Should Know About HUD Properties

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imageHUD properties are available all over the United States, and make great investments for anybody that is interested. These homes often get a bad rap for being in bad condition, but in all actuality they are not any worse than other foreclosed homes that are available. Just like anything else, there are some HUD properties that are in good condition, and some that are in need of repairs. It is simply a matter of how well the past owner cared for the home.

HUD properties are homes that had loans which were insured by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). But when the owner fails to live up to the financial obligations that are expected, the bank then takes over the home and it becomes an HUD property. At this point, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is in charge of repaying the lender any money that they lost on the deal. So as you can see, the Department of Housing and Urban Development sticks their neck on the line when they insure the loans on these homes; if the owner doesn’t pay, they are stuck with owing money to the lender.

[Read more…]

New Ocean Springs Duplexes: $73,000 Equity

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We just announced our latest real estate investment opportunity located in Ocean Springs, Mississippi.  (Ocean Springs Investment Duplexes)

This one happens to be very unique because of the Small Rental Assistance Program (SRAP).  The SRAP program can provide you $73,000 of free government money to purchase your real estate investment.  With this investment you end up gaining over $73,000 of instant equity!  What better way to quickly increase your net worth.

Visit our website and download the free Research Report for complete details, or just click here:  Ocean Springs Investment Duplexes.

Fed Slashes Key Interest Rate to 1 Percent

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In an effort to revive the economy the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate today but a half-point (0.5%). This lowers the rate to 1 percent – the lowest rate since 2003-2004. The last time the federal funds rate was lower than 1 percent was during the Eisenhower administration in 1958.

Today’s interest rate cut was the second half-point cut this month. The last one on October 8, 2008 was in a coordinated move with foreign central banks.

This year’s economic weakness has created huge declines in the price of oil and other commodities. While many economists believe the country is in a recession, they also believe the recent rate cuts and other aggressive actions by the Fed will help prevent a prolonged downturn and help unfreeze the credit markets.

If these aggressive moves by the federal government are successful in thawing the credit markets, it will be great news for real estate investors who are having difficulty financing their real estate investments.

National Real Estate Market Analysis

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eppraisal.com released their National Market Analysis Report for the three months ending August 2008. Of the 188 market areas tracked across the U.S., 43.6 percent show a decline in median home values, which is up from 32.4 percent from the previous three months. This ends the upward trend from the last three reports where the number of markets showing an increase in median home values was on the rise.

Most markets in the report are showing signs of leveling out or increasing values, with California being an exception. California again tops the bottom of the list with 27 of the 28 markets tracked by eppraisal.com showing declining median home values. Chico, CA is the only market that is showing signs of rebounding (see figure below). For this report Chico, CA, saw an increase of 1.70 percent to a median sales price of $245,000.

Six California markets saw double digit declines: Madera down 10 percent, Bakersfield down 10.7 percent, Riverside-San Bernardino down 11.1 percent, Modesto down 11.3 percent, Salinas down 14.3 percent, and Merced down 11.5 percent.

Markets in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon continue to gain in value and continue to show signs of a changing market. For example, the Raleigh-Cary, NC, Florence, SC, and the Dayton, OH, markets all saw median home value increases of over five percent. Raleigh-Cary, NC, increased by 8.1 percent to $200,000, Florence, SC, increased by 8.7 percent to $106,000, and Dayton, OH, increased by 10.6 percent to $110,000.

Texas continues to hold on to the postitive trend while Florida starts to dip back into negative waters. In the last report 11 of the 20 areas tracked in Florida by eppraisal.com showed positive increases in median values. This month the number of Florida markets showing increases in home values is down to six: Fort Walton Beach-Destin up 9.7 percent to $203,000, Palm Coast up 8 percent to $175,000, Panama City up 6.7 percent to $176,000, Palm Bay-Melbourne up 5.7 percent to $156,000, West Palm-Boca Raton up 5.6 percent to $285,000 and Jacksonville up 1.7 percent to $183,900. Texas shows the opposite with seven of the 11 areas tracked by eppraisal.com showing increases in median values. At the top of the list sits McAllen-Edinburg with an increase of 7 percent to $115,875, Waco with an increase of 6 percent to 119,621, and Midland with an increase of 4 percent to $172,500.

See the complete list »

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