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Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for a Crash Like the Great Recession?

March 29, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for a Crash Like the Great Recession?

Florida Housing Market Echoes ‘Great Recession': Are We Headed for a Repeat?. Is that familiar tune playing again? You know, the one that gives you a knot in your stomach when you think about the housing market? Well, if you're in Florida, especially Southwest Florida, you might be hearing echoes of the “Great Recession” in the real estate market right now.

Yes, the Florida housing market is showing signs that remind experts of the period leading up to the economic downturn of 2008. And it's got folks wondering – are we about to go through that again?

Let me tell you, as someone who's been watching the housing market for a while now, it's hard not to notice the shifts. It feels a bit like déjà vu. We saw this incredible boom during the pandemic, with people flocking to Florida for sunshine, more space, and what seemed like a better deal. But now, things are changing, and fast.

Is the Florida Housing Market Headed for a Crash Like Great Recession?

According to a recent report by Newsweek, real estate professor Shelton Weeks from Florida Gulf Coast University is ringing alarm bells. He told WINK News that home sellers in Southwest Florida are cutting their asking prices at levels we haven't seen in over a decade – “since the recovery days coming out of the Great Recession.” That’s a pretty strong statement, and it definitely got my attention.

Why Are We Seeing These Echoes?

So, what’s causing this sense of history repeating itself? It’s not one single thing, but a mix of factors all hitting the Sunshine State at once. Let’s break it down:

  • The Pandemic Boom is Over: Remember when everyone and their brother wanted to move to Florida? Low interest rates, remote work becoming the norm, and the lure of Florida living created a perfect storm. People from colder, more expensive states piled in, driving up demand and prices. Builders couldn't keep up! Florida actually built more new homes than any other state to try and meet this crazy demand.
  • The In-Migration Slowdown: But things have cooled off. The pandemic is officially “over,” and many companies are calling employees back to the office. That remote work dream that fueled a lot of those moves? It's fading for some. Plus, let's be honest, Florida isn't the hidden gem it once was. Everyone knows about it now, and the rush of newcomers has slowed considerably.
  • Rising Costs of Homeownership: This is a big one. Even if you managed to buy a house in Florida during the boom, keeping it is getting more expensive.
    • Homeowners Association (HOA) Fees: These are going up, sometimes drastically. Nobody likes surprise HOA fee hikes!
    • Property Insurance Premiums: Florida is facing a property insurance crisis. Premiums are skyrocketing, and some homeowners are struggling to even find coverage. The risk of hurricanes and other natural disasters makes insurers nervous, and that cost gets passed down to homeowners.
    • General Cost of Living: While Florida used to be known for lower taxes and affordability, the cost of living has been creeping up in many areas.

Inventory is Surging – Buyers Have More Choices

All these factors are creating a perfect storm – but this time, for buyers. We're seeing a huge jump in the number of homes for sale in Florida. Redfin data shows that Florida ended January with the highest inventory since 2012, with over 172,000 homes on the market. And it got even higher in February, reaching over 222,000, a 17.8% jump from the year before!

To put it simply, there are a lot more houses on the market, and fewer people rushing to buy them. Basic supply and demand, right? When supply goes up and demand goes down, guess what happens to prices?

Price Cuts Are Becoming Commonplace, Especially in Southwest Florida

This is where the “Great Recession” echoes get louder. Sellers are realizing they can't get the sky-high prices they were asking just a year or two ago. To attract buyers in this new market, they're having to slash prices.

Let's look at some specific examples from Southwest Florida, because that's where the data is really showing the shifts:

City % of Homes with Price Reductions (Feb 2024) Change from Last Year Median Sale Price (Feb 2024) Change from Last Year Homes Sold (Feb 2024) Change from Last Year
Cape Coral 44.9% Up 5.6% $390,000 Down 2.5% 379 Down 14.4%
Fort Myers 41.5% Up 0.6% $382,500 Down 1.3% 112 Down 24.8%
Naples 38.7% Up 4.9% $1,200,000 Up 43% 95 Down 7.8%
Punta Gorda 39.8% Not provided $360,000 Down 35.7% 59 Up 1.7%
Tampa 32.3% Down 2.2% $450,500 Up 5.4% 428 Up 1.4%

Source: Redfin data reported in Newsweek

Look at those numbers! Nearly half the homes in Cape Coral and Fort Myers had price reductions in February. And while median sale prices are still up in some areas like Tampa and Naples (Naples significantly up, though price cuts are still happening), they are down in Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and dramatically down in Punta Gorda. Sales are also down year-over-year in most of these cities, except for Tampa and Punta Gorda. This paints a picture of a market where sellers are having to adjust to a new reality.

What the Experts Are Saying

It's not just the data talking. Real estate professionals on the ground are seeing this shift firsthand.

Adam Bartomeo, owner of Bartomeo Realty, told Fox 4 that Southwest Florida has “the highest inventory we ever had.” He predicts that both rental and home sales prices will continue to decrease until the end of the year as we work through this inventory.

Denny Grimes, president of Denny Grimes & Team at Keller Williams Realty, went even further, telling Gulf Shore Business, “We're actually now in a buyer's market, and we've been in one since the fourth quarter of 2023.” He says the market is “resetting” after praying for more inventory and finally getting it.

And Professor Shelton Weeks, the one who started this whole “Great Recession echo” conversation, thinks “it's the right time to buy” in Florida, given the market conditions. He believes there could be some “good deals out there” for buyers who are ready to jump in.

Is This a Housing Crash? Or Just a Correction?

Now, before you panic and think we're heading for another 2008-style crash, let's take a breath. Most experts, including real estate analyst Nick Gerli (CEO of Reventure App), believe that Florida is facing a correction, not a crash.

What's the difference? A crash is a sudden, dramatic, and widespread collapse of the market. A correction is more of a recalibration, a return to a more balanced market after a period of overheating.

Think of it like this: imagine a seesaw that went way too high on one side (seller's market boom). Now it's swinging back down to find a more balanced point. That's a correction. A crash would be if the whole seesaw broke and fell apart.

Why a Correction is More Likely Than a Crash (This Time)

  • Stricter Lending Standards: After the Great Recession, lending practices became much tighter. Banks aren't handing out mortgages to just anyone like they were back then. This means there are fewer risky loans in the system, which reduces the chance of a widespread mortgage meltdown.
  • Job Market Still Relatively Strong: While there are concerns about the economy, the job market is still holding up better than it was before the Great Recession. People with jobs are less likely to default on their mortgages.
  • Demand Still Exists (Just Not Frenzied): People still want to live in Florida. The desire for sunshine, lower taxes (compared to some states), and a certain lifestyle is still there. The demand isn't gone, it's just not the crazy, unsustainable level we saw during the pandemic boom.

What Does This Mean for You?

  • For Buyers: This is good news! You have more power now. You have more homes to choose from, sellers are more willing to negotiate, and you might actually find a good deal. Take your time, shop around, and don't be afraid to make offers below asking price, especially in areas with high inventory and price reductions. Just be mindful of still-elevated mortgage rates and overall housing costs.
  • For Sellers: It's time to be realistic. The days of easy over-asking-price sales are over, at least for now. You need to price your home competitively, be prepared for negotiations, and maybe even offer incentives to attract buyers. It's a buyer's market, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

My Take – A Healthy Reset

Honestly, I think this correction in the Florida housing market could be a good thing in the long run. The pandemic boom was unsustainable. Prices were getting out of control, and many people were priced out of the market. A reset is needed to bring things back to a more balanced and healthy level.

While the “Great Recession” comparison is attention-grabbing, and it’s important to be aware of market shifts, I don't believe we're headed for a repeat of 2008. This feels more like a market correction – a necessary adjustment after a period of rapid growth. It might be a bit bumpy for sellers, but for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this could be the opportunity they've been looking for. Just remember to do your homework, work with a good real estate agent, and make smart, informed decisions.

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: florida housing market, Housing Market, Housing Market 2025, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends, Real Estate Market

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2024: Will it Crash?

August 12, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2024

In the realm of real estate, the desire for mortgage rates to return to the 3% range and bidding wars for new listings may remain unfulfilled. However, experts project that in 2024, the Florida housing market is poised for strength, offering ample opportunities for real estate professionals.

Adam Grenville, a sales associate with RE/MAX Premier Group, emphasizes the importance of fostering relationships, and professionalism and providing excellent service to all involved in real estate transactions. Real estate coach Tom Ferry also advises agents to focus on taking action in today's market reality.

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, experts anticipate a strengthening Florida housing market driven by population and business growth. Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors®, notes a return to a pre-pandemic sales pattern with increasing inventory that has slowed price growth. Buyers and sellers are closely watching mortgage rates.

Diana Galavis, broker-associate at Watson Realty, highlights that it will still be a seller's market, even as inventory levels rise. To navigate this market, knowing the statistics and trends in your area is crucial for managing price point expectations.

Population Growth

Florida continues to experience in-migration, driving the demand for homes and condominiums. The state is an attractive location for remote workers, thanks to its affordability and larger housing options compared to the Northeast and West Coast.

Recent population growth has been concentrated in large metro areas, particularly Orange, Hillsborough, Lee, Polk, and Palm Beach counties. This migration is contributing to job formation and strengthening both residential and commercial sectors.

Florida is also witnessing a steady increase in household formation, especially among young adults. This is an excellent time to engage with Gen Z individuals about their housing needs.

International Market

While Florida remains a top market for international buyers, this sector is recovering more slowly than the domestic market. Factors like the strong dollar and geopolitical uncertainties are causing some international buyers to delay their purchases.

New-Home Market

On the supply side, new home production is struggling to keep up with demand. Partnering with builders is one option to expand inventory options for buyers. Lisa Hill, a broker-associate, suggests that buyers should consider new construction due to low inventory.

Residential developments are expanding to outlying areas due to the growth in hybrid work. Grenville emphasizes the importance of exploring new communities, as new-construction properties are a viable option for buyers.

Multifamily and hospitality sectors are also experiencing strong development activity, offering opportunities for real estate professionals.

Pricing and Rates

Home prices and mortgage rates will be key concerns for buyers and sellers in 2024. Pricing is unlikely to go down due to low active listings and strong demographic demand. Mortgage rates also impact institutional buyers and first-time buyers.

Higher rates have a negative impact on the move-up market, leaving a void in this segment. The luxury segment is less affected by rate changes, with many buyers making all-cash purchases.

Real Estate Professional's Role

In an uncertain mortgage environment, the role of knowledgeable real estate professionals becomes crucial. They can help buyers secure the lowest price and assist sellers in maximizing their sale proceeds. Going back to basics, such as open houses and door-knocking, can be effective strategies for generating business in 2024.

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market Tagged With: florida housing market, Florida Housing Market Predictions

Florida Housing Market Welcomes Fischer Homes as New Builder

October 27, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Florida Housing Market Welcomes Fischer Homes as New Builder

Florida Housing Market Welcomes Fischer Homes as New Builder

In a significant development for the Florida housing market, Fischer Homes, a well-established builder from Kentucky, is making its mark in the Northwest Florida region with the acquisition of Samuel Taylor Homes. This strategic move not only adds another player to the housing market but also signifies the growing appeal of the Sunshine State as a destination for real estate investment.

Fischer Homes, based in Erlanger, Kentucky, has long been recognized as a key player in the homebuilding industry. Ranked 30th on the prestigious 2023 Builder 100 list, the company has primarily focused its operations in Cincinnati, Louisville, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Columbus, Dayton, and St. Louis. However, with the recent acquisition of Samuel Taylor Homes, they are venturing into the promising Northwest Florida housing market.

According to CEO Tim McMahon, “Florida is a natural expansion for us, given the state's population growth and our presence in the Southeast. In addition to the fantastic team that Samuel Taylor has in place, we are also excited to partner with their trade and development partners—they are a huge part of our planned growth and success in Northwest Florida.”

A Win-Win Partnership: Fischer Homes and Samuel Taylor Homes

The deal, set to close in mid-December, will see Fischer Homes actively selling homes in Northwest Florida by the end of the year. As a private home builder with over 40 years of experience and more than 38,000 homes built since its inception in 1980, Fischer Homes has a strong reputation for quality and customer satisfaction.

Samuel Taylor Homes, founded in 2011 by Matt Brandman and Hunter Collins, has already made a significant mark in the Northwest Florida area by constructing over 800 homes. Known for its quality construction, the company focuses on Bay County communities in Panama City and Panama City Beach.

Matt Brandman, one of the founders of Samuel Taylor Homes, will take on the role of market president of the new Florida Gulf Coast Division for Fischer Homes. Brandman expressed his enthusiasm for the partnership, saying, “Once we met the Fischer Homes team, we knew right away that becoming part of the Fischer Homes family would be a win-win for the Samuel Taylor team and our customers. Both companies are focused on delivering the best total new-home customer solution, have a thriving company culture, and see the enormous potential of this market.”

Growth and Success: Fischer Homes' Impressive Track Record

Fischer Homes' acquisition of Samuel Taylor Homes comes on the heels of its remarkable growth in recent years. The company has doubled its home closings since 2016 and doubled its revenue since 2018. This expansion is not only within its existing markets but also into new regions that align with its portfolio of award-winning home designs and expertise in creating communities with enduring value.

Jay Smith, Fischer Homes' president and chief operating officer, highlighted the support provided to their homebuilding divisions by their corporate teams. He emphasized that now is the right time to bring their companies together to create instant scale in a market experiencing rapid growth, with a solid team already in place.

This strategic move by Fischer Homes demonstrates their commitment to delivering exceptional homes and experiences to customers. By entering the Northwest Florida housing market, they aim to become an integral part of the region's real estate landscape.

Looking Ahead: Fischer Homes in the Florida Housing Market

Fischer Homes' entry into the Northwest Florida housing market brings a fresh perspective and new opportunities for homebuyers and investors. With a history of excellence and a reputation for quality, they are poised to make a significant impact in this dynamic real estate landscape.

As the deal with Samuel Taylor Homes nears completion, the Florida housing market can anticipate a surge in homebuilding activity. Fischer Homes' unique approach and commitment to customer satisfaction will likely set new standards in the industry.

Fischer Homes' acquisition of Samuel Taylor Homes represents a milestone in the Florida housing market. This strategic move not only diversifies the options available to homebuyers but also underscores the attractiveness of Florida as a destination for real estate investment. With their impressive track record and commitment to excellence, Fischer Homes is poised for success in the Sunshine State.

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market, Trending News Tagged With: florida housing market, Housing Market News, Real Estate News

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