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Florida Real Estate Market Saw a Post-Hurricane Rebound Last Month

December 29, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Hottest Florida Housing Markets in 2025: Miami and Orlando

Alright, let's dive right into the current Florida housing market. The market is showing signs of a shift, with increased listings and inventory, while prices are starting to cool off a bit. This means that for potential buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines, there are more opportunities than before, while for sellers, the market may not be as hot as it once was. Let's break it all down, shall we?

I know how stressful it can be navigating the real estate scene, and whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just keep tabs on the market, it's crucial to stay informed. That's why I'm here to give you the lowdown on what's happening in Florida right now, based on the latest data from Florida Realtors®.

Florida Real Estate Market Saw a Post-Hurricane Rebound Last Month

Home Sales

Let's talk sales numbers. In November 2024, we saw a dip in closed sales compared to the same time last year. Existing single-family home sales totaled 17,095, which is a 3.5% decrease year-over-year. Condo-townhouse sales took a bigger hit, with 6,002 units sold, down a significant 15.6%.

Now, that might sound like a lot, but it’s important to look at the bigger picture. When comparing different sized markets, it's always better to compare percentages rather than absolute sales figures, plus, these numbers can swing quite a bit from month to month.

Here is a summary:

  • Single-Family Homes: 17,095 closed sales, a 3.5% decrease year-over-year
  • Condo-Townhouse Units: 6,002 closed sales, a 15.6% decrease year-over-year

Home Prices

The good news for buyers is that home prices are showing signs of easing. The statewide median sales price for existing single-family homes in November was $410,700, which is a slight 0.6% decrease from the $413,000 we saw a year ago. For condo-townhouse units, the median price dropped more noticeably, down 5.8% to $311,000 from $330,000 in November 2023.

It's important to remember that the median price is simply the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, and half for less. So, while the median price is a useful indicator, it doesn't necessarily reflect the price of all homes. But overall, this decrease in median sales prices does suggest that home values aren't climbing as fast as they were.

Here is a summary:

  • Single-Family Homes: Median price $410,700, down 0.6% year-over-year
  • Condo-Townhouse Units: Median price $311,000, down 5.8% year-over-year
Property Type November 2024 Median Price November 2023 Median Price Percent Change Year-over-Year
Single-Family Homes $410,700 $413,000 -0.6%
Condo-Townhouses $311,000 $330,000 -5.8%

Housing Supply

One of the big stories in the current Florida market is the increase in housing supply. In November, there was a 4.8-month supply of existing single-family homes, which is a substantial 29.7% increase compared to last year. The condo-townhouse market saw an even bigger jump, with an 8.2-month supply, up a whopping 64% year-over-year.

What does this mean? Well, a higher supply means more options for buyers and less pressure from bidding wars, giving them more time to make decisions. As a result, this is a very welcome change for buyers.

Here is a summary:

  • Single-Family Homes: 4.8-month supply, up 29.7% year-over-year
  • Condo-Townhouse Units: 8.2-month supply, up 64% year-over-year

Market Trends

Here's where things get interesting. According to Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor, November saw a post-hurricane rebound in new listings and new pending sales. We saw a significant 12.6% jump in new pending sales for single-family homes year-over-year, which is a very large jump considering the recent trends. To put it in perspective, this is the most growth we’ve seen since April 2021. The increase in new listings also paints an interesting picture. For existing single-family homes, new listings were up 7.2% year-over-year, while condo-townhouse listings were up 5.4%. This is great news for buyers who have more properties to choose from.

However, O’Connor did caution that this could be a temporary rebound, with October activity shifting into November due to the hurricane. It seems we may need to wait for the December figures to see if there's true momentum.

  • New Pending Sales (Single-Family): Up 12.6% year-over-year (largest increase since April 2021)
  • New Listings (Single-Family): Up 7.2% year-over-year
  • New Listings (Condo-Townhouse): Up 5.4% year-over-year

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Now for the million-dollar question: is it a buyer's or a seller's market? Well, it's complicated. Traditionally, a market is considered balanced when there is around a 5.5-month supply of homes. Anything lower than that typically favors sellers, and anything higher favors buyers.

With a 4.8-month supply for single-family homes and a higher 8.2-month supply for condo-townhouses, it's not completely clear-cut. The single-family home market is still leaning slightly towards sellers, but it is moving towards balance. The condo-townhouse market, however, is giving more leverage to buyers. However, with the increased inventory and slight price decrease we are leaning towards a more balanced market, or even one that is slightly favoring buyers especially in the condo-townhouse sector, compared to the previous years. However, it is important to look at individual neighborhoods to get the true picture of supply and demand.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

The short answer is, not drastically, but they are easing. We've seen a small decrease in the median sale price for both single-family homes and condos/townhouses. Single family homes are down by 0.6%, while condo townhouses are down by 5.8%.

While some might be hoping for a huge drop, that's not what we're seeing. The market is adjusting, which is actually a healthy sign. It's not a crash, but more of a leveling off, and an indicator that the rapid price increases of the past few years might be slowing.

Additional Data Points to Consider

It’s not just about supply and prices. There are other metrics that give a complete picture of the housing market:

  • Median Time to Contract: This is the time it takes between a home being listed and a buyer and seller entering an agreement. It now sits at 47 days, which is a 62.1% increase year-over-year, signaling that homes are staying on the market a little bit longer compared to last year.
  • Median Time to Sale: The time between listing and actually closing the sale is now at 90 days. This is up 25% year over year, meaning the entire process from listing to closure has been elongated significantly.
  • Cash Sales: The percentage of closed sales paid fully in cash is 27.5%, down 13% year-over-year. This could indicate a reduction in investor activity.
  • Median Percent of Original List Price Received: Sellers are getting 95.8% of their original listing price. This is a 1.2% decrease year over year. This figure is useful to analyze how much negotiation is happening and whether buyers are getting a better deal on the property, which suggests more bargaining power for buyers than what they had last year.

My Thoughts and Opinions

As someone who’s been watching the Florida market for a while now, I think what we're seeing is a very welcome shift. The rapid appreciation of home values was unsustainable, and a more balanced market will benefit everyone in the long run. The increased inventory is great news for buyers, giving them more choices and less pressure.

I do think the post-hurricane rebound is something to watch. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the December numbers, and whether the momentum we saw in November continues. The market is very much still in transition.

For buyers, my advice would be: Don't rush in with unrealistic expectations. Do your homework. Don't get caught up in bidding wars and make sure to keep your long-term goals in mind. There are great opportunities out there right now but you must do your diligence and be well-informed.

For sellers: It might be time to adjust your expectations. Overpricing your home will likely result in it sitting on the market longer. Work with an experienced realtor who can provide guidance on pricing and strategy.

Conclusion

The current Florida housing market is complex and ever-changing. While we're seeing signs of a shift towards a more balanced market, the situation is still very dynamic. Home prices are easing, supply is up, and sales have cooled off, and I think these changes are great news. But remember, the real estate market is localized, so it's essential to look at what’s happening in your specific area to make the most informed decisions.

The key is to stay informed, work with knowledgeable professionals, and be prepared to adjust your strategy as the market continues to evolve. It's an interesting time to be involved in Florida real estate, and with the right approach, you can make your goals a reality!

Work with Norada, Your Trusted Source for

Turnkey Investment Properties in Florida Markets

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Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

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Recommended Read:

  • Hottest Florida Housing Markets in 2025: Miami and Orlando
  • Florida Real Estate: 9 Housing Markets Predicted to Rise in 2025
  • Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026
  • Housing Markets at Risk: California, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida
  • 3 Florida Housing Markets Are Again on the Brink of a Crash
  • Florida Housing Market Predictions 2025: Insights Across All Cities
  • Florida Housing Market 2024 & Predictions for Next 5 Years
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Florida, Housing Market, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions

Seattle Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years

December 29, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Seattle Housing Market Predictions for Next 5 Years

Thinking about the Seattle housing market predictions for the next 5 years? You're smart to be planning ahead. This city's real estate scene is a rollercoaster, and knowing where it might be headed can save you some serious stress – and maybe even some money. Let's dive in!

Seattle Housing Market Predictions

Short-Term (1-2 Years)

  • Moderate Price Growth
  • Possible Increased Inventory

Medium-Term (3-4 Years)

  • Market Stabilization
  • Continued Competition

Long-Term (5 Years)

  • Gradual Price Appreciation
  • Market Adjustment

Predictions based on current trends and market analysis. Subject to change. 

 

Current Market Snapshot: A Rollercoaster Ride Continues

Is it the right time to buy or sell? Are prices going up or down? The current Seattle housing market trends, as indicated by both Zillow and Redfin data, shows a very competitive market with prices remaining relatively stable year-over-year. While Redfin shows a slight median price of $850,000, Zillow's broader Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue data shows an average home value of $735,683. Let’s dive deeper and explore the specifics to make sense of it all.

Home Sales

Let's start with the number of homes changing hands. Redfin reports that there were 633 homes sold in Seattle during November 2024. This is a significant increase of 15.1% compared to the 550 homes sold in November the previous year. It indicates there’s activity happening. More homes are being bought and sold, so the market isn't stagnant.

While Zillow's data focuses on the broader Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area, it does point to a total inventory of 9,107 homes for sale, and 3,014 new listings in November. This suggests a healthy flow of properties entering the market, providing buyers with more options than we might have seen earlier.

Home Prices

Home prices are often the first thing people think about when discussing real estate. According to Redfin, the median sale price of a home in Seattle is $850,000 as of November 2024. What's interesting is that this represents a 0.0% change since the same time last year. That means prices have pretty much remained flat. Zillow's data, which looks at the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue region, shows a slightly different picture, with an average home value of $735,683, up 4.9% over the past year.

It's important to note the difference in the geographical data; Redfin focuses on the city of Seattle, whereas Zillow includes the surrounding areas. This difference in data scope can explain the variance in average home values reported. The median sale price per square foot in Seattle is $557, down 0.54% since last year according to Redfin.

Here’s a look at some key data points in a table format:

Metric Redfin (Seattle) Zillow (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue)
Median Sale Price $850,000 N/A
Average Home Value N/A $735,683
YoY Change in Price 0.0% +4.9%
Median Sale Price per sq ft $557 N/A
YoY Change in Price/sq ft -0.54% N/A

Housing Supply

Supply is an important factor that influences prices. Zillow notes that there is an inventory of 9,107 homes for sale in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area. There are also 3,014 new listings in November. This is good because new properties coming onto the market provide buyers with fresh choices. Even though Redfin's data focuses only on Seattle, the overall picture indicates a relatively healthy supply of available homes, but still competitive. The “days on the market” data also gives us a sense of supply.

Market Trends

One way to gauge market trends is to look at how quickly homes are selling. Redfin reports that, on average, homes in Seattle sell after 26 days on the market. This is a significant jump from 15 days last year, which shows the market has cooled slightly. Zillow's data, again for the larger Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area, shows a median of 18 days to pending – indicating the typical time between a home being listed and an offer being accepted.

What's interesting is how this impacts sales-to-list price ratios. Redfin points out that the average home sells for around the list price, and it notes that in some cases, homes can sell for about 1% above list price and go pending in around 6 days. Also, homes are seeing slightly more price drops. Redfin states that 26.5% of homes have seen a price drop, though that’s down 3.4 points year-over-year. Zillow also reports that 34.0% of sales are over list price and 41.2% are under the list price.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on all this data, it's safe to say that Seattle’s housing market is still pretty competitive. Even though some metrics might suggest a slight cooling, it's not necessarily a clear-cut buyer's market just yet. The fact that Redfin gives Seattle a “Very Competitive” Redfin Compete Score shows a competitive scenario.

Homes sell quickly, and while some are going below the list price, many still receive multiple offers, with some having contingencies waived. So if you're a buyer, you need to be prepared to act fast and be competitive. As a seller, you need to price the property correctly and make the property attractive to get the maximum potential of your home.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While the Redfin data shows a 0.0% year-over-year change in median price, Zillow’s data for the broader Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area shows a 4.9% increase in average home values. So it can be said that price has increased but at a much slower pace than before. While the market may be less frenzied than it was a year ago, prices haven't dropped in the city of Seattle in terms of median sale price.

However, one key factor to consider is the median price per square foot; Redfin states this has dropped by 0.54%. This suggests some price adjustments within the market overall. The increase in percentage of homes with price drops according to Redfin also signifies a cooling market. It's also important to note that Zillow projects 1.9% one-year market forecast.

Seattle Housing Market Trends: More Than Just Prices

Understanding Seattle housing market predictions requires looking beyond just the price tag. Several factors are at play:

1. Interest Rates: Interest rates significantly impact affordability. If rates rise, fewer people can afford to buy, potentially slowing price growth or even causing a slight dip. Conversely, lower rates could fuel demand and further increase prices.

2. Economic Conditions: A strong economy generally boosts the housing market, while economic uncertainty can lead to caution and decreased demand. Seattle's economy is heavily tied to tech. The recent layoffs in the tech sector could cause uncertainty in the housing market. As of October 2nd, 2024, the unemployment rate in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area is 4.80%, which is lower than the long-term average of 5.26%. While the unemployment rate is lower than the long term average, the recent increase in unemployment due to layoffs could negatively affect the housing market in the coming years.

3. Migration Patterns: Seattle continues to attract people from other parts of the country, but Redfin's data (July-September 2024) revealed that 20% of Seattle homebuyers were looking to move out of the city, while 80% wanted to stay within the metro area. Top inbound migration cities included San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles. Top outbound migration cities included Portland, Bellingham, and Phoenix. The significant number of outbound migrants to the Portland area may affect the housing market in the coming years. This pattern suggests that while Seattle still has draw, the intensity of that draw might be lessening.

4. Population Growth: Seattle's population growth has fluctuated in recent years. Although it experienced strong growth in 2021-2022, it slowed in 2022-2023, before picking back up again in 2023-2024. The current metro area population is 3,549,000. The population increase will certainly influence the housing market, but the effect depends on the rate of home construction.

Seattle Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years: A Balanced View

Predicting the future is never easy, and especially not the fluctuating Seattle housing market! I am basing my forecast on the current data and trends discussed above:

Short-Term (Next 1-2 Years):

  • Moderate Price Growth: I anticipate continued price growth, but at a more moderate pace than what we've seen in recent years. The increased days on the market and slightly decreased number of homes sold suggests that the market will begin to slow down and price growth will be more moderate. The current economic conditions, higher interest rates and recent increase in unemployment also indicate more moderate growth.
  • Increased Inventory (Possibly): It's possible we'll see a slow increase in the number of homes available, reducing some of the intense competition.

Medium-Term (3-4 Years):

  • Stabilization: After the initial slowdown, I predict a period of relative market stabilization, where price growth will slow down to a rate similar to inflation or even slightly lower. This means that the market is not likely to experience the same rapid increase in prices that has been experienced in previous years.
  • Continued Competition: While less intense, competition will likely still exist, especially in desirable neighborhoods.

Long-Term (5 Years):

  • Gradual Price Appreciation: Over the long haul, Seattle's fundamental strength — a desirable location, strong job market (though subject to tech sector fluctuations), and limited land — suggests that prices will continue to increase gradually. This increase is not likely to be anywhere near as significant as in the past few years, but it is important to be aware of the future potential increase.
  • Market Adjustment: The market will likely find a balance between supply and demand, leading to a more sustainable price trajectory.

Factors That Could Change the Forecast:

Several things could disrupt my predictions, so we need to keep this in mind. These factors include:

  • Major shifts in interest rates
  • Significant economic downturns (either nationally or locally)
  • Unexpected changes to city regulations and policies impacting housing supply
  • Significant changes in migration patterns

What This Means For You:

Whether you're a buyer or seller, understanding these Seattle housing market predictions can help you make informed decisions.

  • Buyers: Don't expect a huge price crash, but be prepared for a more balanced market. Be patient, do your research, and have a realistic budget.
  • Sellers: Prices are still high, but the market isn't as seller-friendly as it once was. Prepare your home well, work with a knowledgeable agent, and be prepared for negotiations.

My Thoughts and Insights

As someone who has followed the Seattle housing market, I can say that the market has become more stable than it was just a year ago. It's no longer the wild west with prices soaring each month. I think this stability is a good thing, though it means buyers will still need to be prepared. For sellers, it's important to price the home based on the data, not the hype, and focus on making your home stand out.

I think the slight price corrections and increased inventory could create opportunities for buyers, but it still requires careful planning.

In conclusion, the current Seattle housing market trends reveal a competitive market that is not as crazy as it was before. Prices remain relatively stable, sales are up, and homes are selling at a decent pace but slower than in the past. While it might not be a clear-cut buyer's or seller's market, it offers opportunities for both sides.

Recommended Read:

  • Seattle Housing Market Forecast 2025: What to Expect
  • Seattle Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Predictions
  • Seattle Housing Market: Prices Sizzle, Ranking Among Nation’s Hottest
  • Seattle Real Estate Investment: Is it a Good Place to Invest?
  • The Hottest Housing Markets in Seattle Area (2024)
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 10 Years: Will Prices Skyrocket?
  • Housing Market Predictions for Next 5 Years (2024-2028)
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Real Estate Market, Seattle

Las Vegas Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years

December 26, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Las Vegas Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

If you're eyeing the Las Vegas real estate scene, you're probably wondering what the future holds. Will prices soar, dip, or stay steady? Well, based on the latest data and my analysis, the Las Vegas housing market is likely to see a mix of minor dips and moderate growth over the next two years. While we shouldn’t expect any dramatic crashes, let’s dive deeper into what factors will likely shape the market through 2026.

Las Vegas Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

📈
Las Vegas Housing Market Insights
  • 🏠 2024-2025 Dip: -0.7% by January 2025
  • 📊 2025 Recovery: +1.1% by October 2025
  • 📅 2026 Forecast: Slow but steady growth expected
  • 💡 Key Factors: Interest rates, inventory levels, and the local economy

Current State of the Las Vegas Housing Market

Before we look into the crystal ball, let's get a snapshot of where we stand right now. As of today, Zillow reports that the average home value in the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise area is around $428,725. This is a 5.6% increase over the past year. While that may sound like a lot, it's important to note that the market has been cooling down from its pandemic peak. Homes are currently going to pending in approximately 28 days. This number used to be much lower in the past 2 to 3 years showing a slowdown in demand.

Short-Term Forecast: A Mixed Bag

Now, let's look at what the experts at Zillow are predicting. Their data gives us some valuable clues for the near future. I’ve summarized their data below for better readability.

Region October 2024 Actual Forecasted Change (Nov 2024-Jan 2025) Forecasted Change (Nov 2024 – Oct 2025)
Las Vegas, NV 0% -0.7% 1.1%
Reno, NV 0% -0.4% 0.9%
Fernley, NV -0.1% -0.7% 0.2%
Carson City, NV 0% -0.2% 0.9%
Elko, NV 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%
Pahrump, NV 0.2% 0.2% 2.3%
Gardnerville Ranchos, NV 0.1% -0.4% 0.4%

Here’s what we can gather from this:

  • Minor Dip in Early 2025: Zillow predicts a slight drop of 0.7% in Las Vegas home values between November 2024 and January 2025. This suggests that the market might experience a small correction as we head into the new year. Other areas in Nevada are predicted to see a similar trend, with most areas seeing a decline or no change in this period.
  • Moderate Growth by Late 2025: However, the forecast for the rest of 2025 is more positive. Las Vegas is expected to see an overall increase of 1.1% in home values between November 2024 and October 2025. This suggests the market will slowly recover in the latter half of the year.
  • Las Vegas vs. Other Nevada Cities: When we compare Las Vegas to other cities in Nevada, we see a similar trend of slight decline and then moderate growth, with a few exceptions like Pahrump seeing significantly higher growth. This suggests that the broader state market has similar underlying factors. Elko is also doing a bit better than other regions.

My Personal Thoughts and Analysis

Now, here's where I'll throw in my own two cents. While Zillow's data is valuable, real estate markets are influenced by a myriad of factors, and I believe the next two years will be particularly interesting in Vegas.

  • Interest Rates: The biggest factor influencing the market remains interest rates. With mortgage rates still elevated compared to the last few years, demand will be tempered. If the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates (as many expect), that could provide a boost to buyer activity and might increase demand slightly.
  • Inventory: The amount of homes available for sale also plays a crucial role. If the number of homes on the market increases significantly, it might put downward pressure on prices. If inventory remains limited, prices are less likely to decline sharply. However, from my experience and reading between the lines in data, there are chances of more supply entering the market, especially due to speculative investors who are now looking to exit.
  • Local Economy: Las Vegas is heavily reliant on tourism. A strong local economy, with a high level of employment, always supports a healthy housing market. With the strong job market recently, and new projects lined up, it should help the real estate market.
  • Population Growth: Nevada, and Las Vegas in particular, has been seeing a rise in population over the past few years. This constant demand for housing is another factor to watch out for. This demand is a supporting factor for the rise in prices.
  • Affordability: Let’s face it, Las Vegas isn’t as affordable as it once was. This is the reason why the growth in real estate has slowed down over the past year. I think this is a healthy thing as it gives real buyers time to accumulate enough down payment, and prevents speculative bubbles in the market. If the affordability issue keeps increasing, we may see the demand further cooling down in the future.

Will Home Prices Drop or Crash in Las Vegas?

Okay, the big question: Will home prices drop in Las Vegas? Or even crash? Based on my analysis, the short answer is: a dramatic crash is unlikely. While we might see a slight dip in the beginning of 2025, followed by modest growth, I don't foresee a major downturn.

Here’s my rationale:

  • No Signs of a Bubble: The rapid price increases we saw during the pandemic were unsustainable. The current cooling off is a correction, not a market collapse. There has also been a significant rise in the quality of buyers. Most new buyers are well qualified and are not over-leveraged.
  • Limited Supply: Even though more houses might be entering the market, the existing supply is not enough to trigger a huge price drop.
  • Strong Underlying Economy: The Las Vegas economy seems fairly robust at this time. And if it continues to grow, it will support the housing market.
  • Lending Standards are Tighter: Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, lending practices are stricter now. This means that there aren’t too many people with risky mortgages that could trigger a flood of foreclosures.

A Possible Housing Forecast for 2026

Predicting what will happen in 2026 is tricky, as a lot can happen in that timeframe. However, here's my best guess based on current trends and my experience:

  • Continued Moderate Growth: I expect the Las Vegas housing market to continue on a path of moderate growth. The rapid growth of the pandemic years are over for sure. We might see price gains of around 3 to 5% each year, depending on interest rate movement.
  • Increased Competition: As the market stabilizes and uncertainty reduces, I foresee more buyers entering the market. This might lead to slightly more competition for good quality houses in the best locations.
  • Focus on Affordability: The issue of affordability will likely be a major topic as we move into 2026. If interest rates do not come down in a significant way, and prices rise, then many people will get priced out of the market.
  • Shift in Buyer Preference: More people may look at different types of houses, or locations if they can't afford the more premium properties.

Factors to Watch Out For

  • Federal Reserve Actions: Pay close attention to any announcements made by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. This will have a huge impact on the mortgage rates and buyer activity.
  • Employment Data: Keep an eye on the employment data for Las Vegas. A strong job market leads to a stable housing market.
  • New Development: Watch out for new housing developments. Any large new project may impact the supply and demand in the region.
  • Inflation: This is an important factor too. High inflation will lead to high prices, which might eventually cool down demand for real estate.

Final Thoughts:

So, what's the bottom line? The Las Vegas housing market is not in a state of bubble. We are not going to see any dramatic price drops anytime soon. Over the next two years, I believe the market will experience a small correction in the beginning followed by slow and steady growth.

If you are planning to buy, don't try to time the market perfectly, but instead look at houses that you really like, and are in your comfortable budget range. If you are planning to sell, make sure to list your house in an attractive way, and be prepared for more competition. For both buyers and sellers, it's essential to stay informed, consult with professionals, and make informed decisions based on your individual situation.

Remember, real estate is a long-term game. So, don't get swayed by short-term fluctuations. I hope this analysis helps you navigate the Las Vegas housing market with more confidence.

Partner with Norada, Your Trusted Source for Turnkey Investment Properties

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns. Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio in “Nevada” with confidence.

Reach out to our investment counselors:

(949) 218-6668 | (800) 611-3060

Contact Us Today

 

Recommended Read:

  • Where to Buy Las Vegas Investment Properties in 2025: Top Neighborhoods
  • Las Vegas Real Estate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
  • Las Vegas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast
  • Las Vegas Housing Market 2024: Is It a Bubble? Is It Falling?
  • Homebuyers Are Moving to Sacramento, Las Vegas, and Orlando
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2024 to 2028
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, housing market predictions, Las Vegas, Nevada

Housing Market Trends December 2024: Prices, Inventory, and More

December 24, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Trends December 2024: Prices, Inventory, and More

The housing market in December 2024 is showing signs of a late-season uptick, but overall, it's a mixed bag. While prices are mostly flat or slightly down year-over-year, we're seeing more houses come on the market, and homes are still taking longer to sell than they did last year. It's not a crazy boom, but it's not a total bust either. It’s a time of adjustment, I would say.

I've been watching the housing market closely, and I think this late-year activity is really interesting. So, let’s break it down based on recent data from realtor.com, shall we?

Housing Market Trends December 2024: What's Happening

The Price Puzzle: What's Going On?

Let's talk about prices first, because that's usually what everyone wants to know. According to data from Realtor.com, the median listing price has decreased by 1.2% compared to last year. That makes it the 29th week in a row that prices have been flat or lower than the same week in 2023. Now, that's a pretty consistent trend if you ask me.

However, there's a bit of a twist. When you look at the median listing price per square foot, it actually increased by 1.4%. What does that mean? Basically, it could signal that the mix of homes on the market has changed. We might be seeing more smaller, less expensive homes hitting the market, which brings down the overall median listing price. But, per square foot, the underlying value might be creeping up slightly.

Here's a quick recap on how the housing prices have trended over the past few weeks:

Data Point Year-over-Year Change
Median Listing Prices -1.2%
Median Price per Sq Ft +1.4%

So, what does this mean for you? If you're a buyer, it could mean that you might find some deals. If you're a seller, you might need to be a bit more strategic with your pricing. I mean you always need to be, but now, even more so.

More Houses on the Market? Yes, Please!

Here's a trend that could be helpful for buyers: new listings are up! We're seeing a 7.9% increase in new listings compared to this time last year. In fact, the past two weeks have had the biggest jump in new listings since April. It seems like people are finally ready to put their homes on the market.

I think this late-season push could be because sellers want to get the sale done before the year ends, and maybe even grab a new place themselves, too. I’ve seen this happen a few times over the years. This uptick in listings is a good sign, as it gives buyers more choices, and helps bring a little balance back to the market.

Inventory Growth: Still Strong, But Slowing Down

The number of houses for sale is still up year over year. For the 58th consecutive week, we’re seeing an increase in active listings. Specifically, we’re looking at a 23.4% jump compared to this time last year.

However, and here's the thing, this growth is the slowest we've seen since March 2024. It's like the market is finally taking a breather. I think the lingering effects of the higher mortgage rates are definitely playing a role here and there. It's like a dampener on both seller enthusiasm and buyer urgency.

This is not like, an earth-shattering rise in inventory, but it does mean that buyers have more options to choose from than they did last year. And that can give you a bit of an edge while negotiating. Here's a quick snapshot:

Data Point Year-over-Year Change
New Listings +7.9%
Active Listings +23.4%

Time on Market: Buyers Are Taking Their Time

This is where we really see how the market has shifted. Homes are taking 7 days longer to sell than they did this time last year. Now, that’s a significant jump. It's the 25th week in a row where the time on the market has increased. It basically means buyers aren't in a rush and are taking their time to make the best decision, especially with so many options and the higher rates being a constant thought.

However, there’s a glimmer of something happening, in the last week of the data, that is; the difference has gone down from eight days to seven. So, that’s definitely an indicator that market is perhaps trying to stabilize again.

I believe this is likely due to recent, slight drops in mortgage rates, which might encourage some buyers to move forward. We need to watch out for these signals, of course, and see if they're here to stay for a longer time. Here's a table showing how the market has shifted in recent weeks when it comes to time on the market:

Data Point Year-over-Year Change
Time on Market 7 days slower

My Take on the December Housing Market

So, what's my overall take? The housing market in December 2024 is definitely not a straightforward picture. We're seeing a mix of trends that suggest a market in transition.

  • For Buyers:
    • You have more choices than you did last year.
    • Homes are staying on the market a bit longer, giving you more time to make a decision.
    • You may have a slight advantage negotiating due to market dynamics
    • Don't rush, weigh your options, and don't hesitate to negotiate
  • For Sellers:
    • Prices aren't falling off a cliff, but they're not skyrocketing either.
    • More competition means you need to be strategic with pricing and marketing.
    • Be patient because houses are staying longer on the market now.
    • Present your house in the best possible light.

I believe this late-season uptick is a result of both sellers trying to wrap things up before the year ends and buyers trying to lock in a home before the holidays. The data shows that inventory is still higher than last year but the increase is slowing down and we have to keep an eye on this, along with mortgage rates and economic indicators.

I've been tracking these trends, and I can tell you that these shifts aren't happening in a vacuum. They're shaped by the overall economy and the sentiment of both buyers and sellers. What’s happening now is also shaping what may happen early next year.

Looking Ahead

The key is to stay informed and be adaptable. Both buyers and sellers need to be aware of the current market conditions and be prepared to adjust their strategies as needed. I think we'll see more of this stabilization continue into 2025. But who knows what the future holds? The housing market is always full of surprises, right?

Here's a summary of the key trends we've discussed:

  • Median Listing Prices: Down 1.2% year-over-year
  • New Listings: Up 7.9% year-over-year
  • Active Listings: Up 23.4% year-over-year (but growth is slowing)
  • Time on Market: 7 days slower year-over-year

I believe in doing my own due diligence, and I always advise you, my reader, to do the same. Rely on credible sources, don't believe everything you see or hear, and be smart with your money. It's a big decision, and I hope this article has been helpful as you navigate the December 2024 housing market.

Work with Norada in 2025, Your Trusted Source for

Turnkey Investment Properties

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now 

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, housing market crash, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends

Housing Market Predictions 2025: Will Real Estate Boom?

December 24, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

housing market predictions

Will the housing market explode in 2025? Probably not a full-blown boom, but it's unlikely to be a complete bust either. Expect a mix of modest growth, slightly increased sales, and a bit more inventory. It will likely be a more balanced market, leaning slightly more in favor of buyers than we've seen in recent years.

I know, that's not as exciting as a ‘boom' headline, but it’s a more realistic picture based on the data I've been digging into. Let me explain why, and break it all down for you.

Housing Market 2025: Experts Predict Slower Growth, Not a Boom

2024: A Year of Twists and Turns

To understand what's coming in 2025, we first need to look back at the wild ride that was 2024. It was definitely a year that kept us on our toes, with some unexpected challenges and shifts. If you thought you had it figured out, well, the market probably threw you a curveball! Predictions made at the beginning of the year? Many just didn't pan out.

It was like trying to predict the weather in a hurricane – pretty much impossible.

Here's a quick summary of what made 2024 so unique:

  • Interest Rate Roller Coaster: Instead of the expected decline, mortgage rates unexpectedly surged, hitting new highs and making homes even less affordable. This put a damper on buyer enthusiasm. Even though there was a small dip in September, the volatility made it very tough for people to make plans.
  • Affordability Crisis: Home prices, already sky-high, combined with rising interest rates, property taxes and insurance costs, led to a major affordability crunch. It's not just that houses cost more; people are paying a bigger chunk of their income on housing compared to past years. Think Great Financial Crisis levels – but with less wage growth.
  • Inventory Lock-In: Many homeowners who refinanced at super low rates were hesitant to sell, fearing higher rates on their next purchase. This “lock-in effect” kept housing supply tight, adding to the affordability problem.
  • Creative Solutions: People started thinking outside the box. “House hacking,” like renting out rooms or units in a multi-family property to offset mortgage costs, became more popular, especially with younger buyers. This is just one sign that buyers are very adaptable and will figure out how to navigate tough markets.

What's in Store for 2025?

So, with the background of 2024, let's dive into what 2025 might bring us. This is where different experts and reports start to offer varying perspectives, but let's try and see the bigger picture.

1. Mortgage Rates: The Unpredictable Factor

Okay, let's talk about mortgage rates. They were the main villain of 2024, and they’re going to continue to be a major player in 2025. The million-dollar question is: will they come down?

  • The Optimistic View: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, is predicting that we might see rates stabilize between 5.5% to 6.5%. They are predicting a slow drop which I think is overly optimistic. This, according to them, would be the “new normal.”
  • My Take (with a dash of skepticism): While I'd love to believe in a big drop in rates, based on what I'm seeing, I'm leaning towards them being more in the 6.5% to 7.5% range, possibly higher for a while. Why am I so cautious? Well, longer-term rates, which really influence mortgages, are tied to things like the 10-year Treasury yield. These yields are determined by market forces – inflation fears, government spending, future economic expectations, etc. The Federal Reserve can influence these, but it doesn't control them completely. Right now, the market isn't showing signs that it expects inflation to disappear soon, and this means mortgage rates may stay elevated.To me it feels like the bond market is still fearful of higher inflation and continued large government deficits which leads to higher interest rates.

Here's a table of the different predictions:

Source 2025 Avg. Mortgage Rate
NAR (Lawrence Yun) 5.5% – 6.5%
Realtor.com 6.3%
My Prediction 6.5% – 7.5%

Remember these are forecasts and can change.

The most important takeaway here? Don't expect a return to the super low rates of the past. Prepare your budget for rates at these levels.

2. Home Prices: More Growth, but Slower

It's unlikely that we'll see a complete collapse in housing prices, but we may see price growth slow down. Here's the gist:

  • Realtor.com Forecast: They're predicting a 3.7% increase in home prices for 2025, which is a bit lower than the 4% they're expecting for 2024. This is mainly because while they see a small drop in mortgage rates they expect inventory to increase. This additional supply will have a downward impact on pricing.
  • NAR Forecast: Yun is forecasting a 2% increase in median home prices for both 2025 and 2026.
  • My Opinion: I do believe that prices will slow in growth, and it's possible that in some overinflated areas we could see prices even decline. I also think that condo prices will likely drop first, as we're already seeing that in places like Denver and some areas in Florida. There is already oversupply in some areas, which means prices will eventually drop due to basic economics of supply and demand.

Here’s a table summarizing the median home price appreciation:

Source 2025 Median Home Price Appreciation 2026 Median Home Price Appreciation
NAR 2% 2%
Realtor.com 3.7% Not Available
My Opinion Slower growth (possibly declines in some areas) Slower growth or stagnation

It is worth nothing here that 2024 price growth was around 4% which is a lot higher than 2023 which was 1.1%.

3. Sales Volume: A Slight Increase

Will more people be buying homes in 2025? The data suggests that a modest increase in sales is possible:

  • NAR: They predict about a 10% jump in existing-home sales in both 2025 and 2026, along with an 11% increase in new home sales in 2025 and an 8% jump in 2026.
  • Realtor.com: They are forecasting that home sales will increase by 1.5% year over year, which would lead to 4.07 million sales for the full year of 2025. This number is significantly lower than the numbers put out by NAR.
  • My thoughts: I am very skeptical about a substantial sales volume increase in 2025. High interest rates and the “lock-in effect” are going to continue to slow down movement in the market. Unless interest rates drop significantly (due to a recession or some other major event) or unemployment surges, the market is likely to remain sluggish. I think the Realtor.com forecast is more realistic. I also think that costs of homeownership like property taxes and insurance are a huge factor that the NAR numbers might be ignoring.

Let’s look at the home sales projections:

Source 2025 Sales Volume (YoY) 2026 Sales Volume (YoY)
NAR 10% 10%
Realtor.com 1.5% Not Available
My Opinion Minimal to Low Increase Stagnant or Slight Increase

4. Inventory: Slowly Unlocking

Good news! We may finally be seeing some relief from the incredibly tight housing supply:

  • The “Lock-In” Loosening: The lock-in effect is starting to show signs of easing as people move due to life events or wanting to tap into their home equity. We're seeing more listings in typically tight markets, like California, and more inventory in Texas and Florida where there's more new construction.
  • Realtor.com Forecast: They're predicting an 11.7% increase in the for-sale inventory for 2025 which is down from 15.2% growth seen in 2024.
  • My Perspective: The increase in inventory is a positive sign, but it's a gradual change. While the peak of the lock-in is likely over, it’s still going to have an impact, especially at the start of 2025. I think, on the whole, we will see a good jump in supply overall compared to the last couple of years, but we’re not going to be back to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

5. Affordability: A Continued Struggle

Even with a slower pace of price growth and the possibility of slightly lower interest rates, affordability is going to remain a key challenge.

  • Cost of Ownership: It's not just about the price of the home. Property taxes, insurance costs, and even maintenance expenses are all going up. This means a larger portion of people's income goes toward owning a home.
  • Potential Upsides: Realtor.com points out that a Trump administration might bring tax cuts and other policies which could lead to a small bump in disposable income which would make homes more affordable, however, that remains to be seen.
  • My Thoughts: I do think affordability will continue to be an issue. The good news is that the pressure is not as strong as it was in the past couple of years. The cost of housing as a percentage of income is expected to go down. However, affordability is still way off from historical norms.

6. The Political Wild Card

With a new administration taking office, there's a lot of uncertainty. Here's what's on the table:

  • Trump's Potential Policies: President Trump has talked about things like deregulation, making federal land available for homebuilding, and slashing inflation. Some of these proposals could help with housing supply and even bring down interest rates if he can successfully cut down on inflation.
  • Potential Drawbacks: However, some of his other proposed policies could work against the positive outlook. Tariffs and immigration restrictions could affect the construction industry and increase costs. It's also uncertain how tax cuts and increased government spending will play into inflation.
  • Market Reaction: The markets have already reacted to this by pushing longer-term rates higher, suggesting they are worried about inflation, larger deficits, or stronger economic growth, or even a combination of all three.As I see it, the market is definitely seeing the Trump victory as an indication that there will be a more inflationary environment which would lead to higher interest rates for much longer. How this impacts housing will be something that I'll be watching closely.

Key Takeaways for Buyers, Sellers, and Renters

Okay, after all that, here are some specific tips for you based on what I'm seeing in the data:

For Buyers:

  • Prepare your budget: Don't count on super low rates. Plan for a mid-6% range and make sure you have a good handle on your monthly expenses.
  • Be patient: The market is becoming more balanced, so you might have more time to consider your options. Don't feel pressured to rush into a purchase if something doesn't feel right.
  • Explore creative options: Consider things like house hacking, or equity-sharing if you're struggling with affordability.
  • Get financially prepared: Be ready to jump on a good opportunity if it comes up. Get pre-approved, and have all of your financial documents in order.
  • Be Aware of Realtor Changes: Real estate commissions are now negotiable. Make sure you and your buyer agent have an upfront agreement on compensation.

For Sellers:

  • Price strategically: With more inventory, you may need to be more careful about pricing your home to attract buyers. Don’t price yourself out of the market!
  • Consider incentives: In a more competitive market, offering things like closing costs or rate buy-downs could make your home stand out.
  • Flexibility is key: Be open to negotiating and adjust your strategy to the market conditions.

For Renters:

  • Renting may remain more affordable (for now): In many markets, renting may be the more cost-effective option, especially in the short term.
  • Splitting Costs: If you are trying to save for a down payment, look into splitting rental costs with roommates to build your savings quicker.
  • Consider Location: If you are looking for a cheaper option, renting further from the city center might be an option, or even looking at a less expensive city could be a solution.
  • Tools for evaluating: There are resources like the Realtor.com Rent vs Buy calculator that can help you evaluate your options.

Final Thoughts

So, will there be a housing boom in 2025? Based on all the data, my analysis, and my gut feeling? I doubt it. Instead, I'm expecting a market that's gradually normalizing, where buyers have a bit more power and inventory starts to increase, even while affordability is still an issue. It will be a year of slow change, not a rapid boom. It is going to be an interesting year, and I'll be watching closely to see how the market unfolds.

It's important to remember that real estate is local, and these trends may not apply everywhere. Always do your research and consult with local experts.

And that's where I leave it for now. I hope I've given you a realistic view of the 2025 housing market. It’s a complicated puzzle, but by staying informed, you can make better decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or renting.

Work with Norada in 2025, Your Trusted Source for

Turnkey Investment Properties

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Tagged With: Housing Market, housing market crash, housing market predictions

Most Popular Housing Markets: Unveiling Hotspots of 2024

December 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Most Popular Housing Markets: Unveiling Hotspots of 2024

If you're anything like me, you've probably been glued to real estate websites, dreaming about your next move. Well, I've got some exciting news for you! According to Zillow's analysis of 2024, Manchester, New Hampshire is the most popular housing market right now. But it doesn't stop there. This year's trends point towards a fascinating shift, with smaller cities and exurbs grabbing the spotlight, alongside surprising regional winners. So, let's dive in and explore where everyone seems to be looking to call home!

The Rise of the Exurbs: A New Trend in Housing

Forget the hustle and bustle of big cities, many of us are looking for something different. What's interesting this year is that exurbs are really taking the lead. These are smaller towns located outside of the main suburbs but still close enough for an easy commute. I've always found the idea of living in a place that balances peaceful living with the option to easily get to the city very appealing.

The increase in hybrid work setups seems to be a major factor in this trend. People aren’t tied to offices as much anymore and that opens up a whole new world of possibilities. We're realizing that we can have a lower cost of living, more space and still be able to head into the city when we need to. It’s like finding a hidden gem that was always there, but we never had a reason to explore it fully.

Zillow's Top 10 Most Popular Housing Markets of 2024

Zillow, a major name in real estate, analyzes user data like page views, home value growth, and how quickly properties sell, to figure out where people are most interested in buying. The results give a great snapshot of the current housing market. Based on their analysis, here are the top 10 most popular markets this year:

  • Manchester, New Hampshire
  • Rockford, Illinois
  • Stamford, Connecticut
  • Columbia, Maryland
  • Bridgeport, Connecticut
  • Allentown, Pennsylvania
  • Peoria, Illinois
  • New Haven, Connecticut
  • Waterbury, Connecticut
  • Sunnyvale, California

As you can see, the Northeast continues to be quite popular, taking up a majority of the top spots, which is fascinating. The Midwest also shows a lot of interest and it's notable that only one West Coast market made the list. It shows that people are looking for alternatives. The West Coast is beautiful, I agree but for a while it has been notoriously expensive.

Manchester, New Hampshire: The Most Popular Overall

Let's talk about the overall winner – Manchester, New Hampshire. I'm not surprised it’s so popular! It's the largest city in the state and has been attracting the interest of many home shoppers. What's even more interesting is that this city has seen a 7.3% jump in typical home values within the last year, now sitting at $415,000. For all its growing appeal, it's still more affordable than other cities such as Boston. Many buyers from outside of Manchester have been looking to relocate there. This tells me that it's not just locals driving the market, it's people from all over seeking a change of scenery.

Diving Deeper: Regional Favorites and Specialized Markets

Okay, so we know the most popular overall spots but what about the types of markets? Let's check out how things are trending in different categories.

Most Popular Large City: Toledo, Ohio

Toledo, Ohio, has won the top spot for most popular large city! With a typical home valued at around $121,000, it is clear that affordability is a major attraction. Located near Lake Erie, it has an appealing mix of nature and cultural attractions, such as a thriving art scene. It seems like this city has a lot of potential. San Jose, California, and Wichita, Kansas, also secured spots in the top three in this category. I can totally understand why people are finding these cities interesting, they all offer something different.

Most Popular Small Town: Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania

Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, is the most popular small town. It is a lovely town with only 12,000 residents, featuring charming streets, shops and parks. If you are looking to buy here, you have to be quick because houses are selling within five days! Small towns in the Midwest are also quite popular including Vermilion, Ohio; Roscoe, Illinois; and Twinsburg, Ohio. For someone like me who likes a smaller and quieter setting these towns sound really attractive.

Most Popular Coastal City: Milford, Connecticut

Milford, Connecticut, takes the title of most popular coastal city with its 17 miles of coastline along Long Island Sound. It has all the attractions for people who like beaches and boating. West Haven, Connecticut, and South Portland, Maine, are also popular coastal cities. It’s definitely clear that there is an enduring appeal to coastal living.

Most Popular Vacation Town: Portland, Maine

Portland, Maine is the most popular vacation town. It is located on a peninsula extending into Casco Bay and known for its art, architecture, and seafood. It is not really surprising that it’s such a hit with people who want to get away to the coast. Other East Coast towns like East Haven, Connecticut, and Newport, Rhode Island, also made it on the list, showing that the East Coast dominates the most popular vacation towns.

Most Popular Retirement City: Pahrump, Nevada

Pahrump, Nevada, 50 miles away from Las Vegas, has made it to the top as the most popular retirement city. I can see why. It has a warm climate and a significant population of people aged 65 and older. It seems to be a really good fit for retirees. Last year's number 1 retirement city, Pinehurst, North Carolina, is now in the second position.

Most Popular College Town: Normal, Illinois

Normal, Illinois, is the most popular college town. It is home to the Illinois State University Redbirds. Kent, Ohio, is in second place for the second year in a row. Other popular college towns include San Luis Obispo, California, Charlottesville, Virginia, and La Crosse, Wisconsin. It is great to see how these different types of towns attract different types of people!

Most Popular Cities by Geographic Region

Zillow's analysis also looked at the most popular cities by geographic regions. This is very interesting because it can show us what's trending in a wider geographical sense. Here are the regional winners:

  • Northeast: Manchester, New Hampshire
  • West: Sunnyvale, California
  • Midwest: Rockford, Illinois
  • Southwest: Rio Rancho, New Mexico
  • Southeast: Cary, North Carolina
  • Mountain Region: Fort Collins, Colorado

It's nice to see how popularity is spread out, and it's not all concentrated in one area.

Recommended Read:

Top 10 Most Popular Housing Markets of 2023

What Does This Mean for You? Some Final Thoughts

So, what does all this data mean for you and me? Well, it's clear that the housing market is changing, and so are people's preferences. The rise of exurbs is a signal that the work-from-home shift has had a lasting effect on where people are choosing to live. It's also interesting to see that people are looking for affordability, different types of lifestyles and experiences whether that's in coastal towns, vacation towns, retirement or college towns. I personally find this trend very encouraging. It shows that we’re more flexible, and are choosing to live in places that suit our needs rather than just being tied to major city hubs.

If you're thinking about making a move, this data can give you an idea of what's trending and some locations that are worth checking out. However, remember that the “most popular” isn't necessarily the “best” for you, so be sure to do your own research and pick a place that is suitable for your own unique preferences and circumstances! I also recommend talking to local real estate experts who know the areas very well.

In Conclusion

The most popular housing markets of 2024 are showing a clear shift towards smaller cities and exurbs. Manchester, New Hampshire is leading the charge, but there is also popularity spread across various other cities, showcasing diverse lifestyle preferences. These changing trends are driven by factors such as increased hybrid work models and a growing interest in affordability. Keep this information in mind if you're planning on making a move soon, and happy house hunting!

Work with Norada, Your Trusted Source for Turnkey Investment Properties

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns.

Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Contact our investment counselors (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

 

Recommended Read:

  • Existing Home Sales Predicted to Remain at 30-year Low in 2025
  • Lower Mortgage Rates Will Reignite the Housing Demand in 2025
  • NAR Predicts 6% Mortgage Rates in 2025 Will Boost Housing Market
  • Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2024-2026
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2028
  • Housing Market Predictions for Next Year: Prices to Rise by 4.4%
  • Housing Market Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by NAR Chief
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years: Top 5 Predictions for Future
  • 2008 Forecaster Warns: Housing Market 2024 Needs This to Survive
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Mortgage, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Home Price, home sales, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends, Real Estate Market

Home Sales Soar in November 2024 With Highest Jump Since Mid-2021

December 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Home Sales Soar in November 2024 With Highest Jump Since Mid-2021

Yes, you heard it right! Existing-home sales surged 4.8% in November, marking the most significant year-over-year increase since June 2021. This is a pretty big deal if you've been keeping an eye on the housing market, and it could indicate some exciting shifts are underway. I know I've been watching these numbers closely, and I'm here to break down exactly what this means for you, whether you're a buyer, seller, or just curious about the real estate world.

Home Sales Soar in November 2024 With Highest Jump Since Mid-2021

The Numbers Behind the Headlines

Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, jumped up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. This 4.8% rise from October is a welcome change but more importantly, it's a 6.1% climb compared to November of the previous year. That's the biggest jump we've seen in a while!

To put it into perspective, back in June 2021, we saw a whopping 23% year-over-year increase, but lately things have been much more subdued. So, this recent jump is definitely something to pay attention to.

  • November 2024 Existing Home Sales: 4.15 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • Month-over-Month Change: Increased 4.8% from October
  • Year-over-Year Change: Increased 6.1% from November 2023

Key Takeaway: Home sales are not just bouncing back, they are showing some real upward momentum.

What's Driving This Increase?

So, what’s fueling this resurgence? According to NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, a few factors are in play:

  • Job Growth: A growing economy means more people are employed, and with a steady paycheck, the dream of homeownership becomes a reality.
  • Increased Housing Inventory: The number of homes for sale is slowly ticking up, which gives buyers more options and a bit more negotiating power.
  • Mortgage Rates Stabilizing: While mortgage rates are still higher than we saw a few years back, they’ve settled into a new range between 6% and 7%, which people seem to be adjusting to.

I think it’s that “new normal” idea that's really crucial here. After the wild ride of the past few years, buyers and sellers are getting a better grasp on what's realistic in this market. We’re seeing more people jumping in because they are ready and have adjusted their expectations.

Inventory & Prices: What You Need to Know

Now let's talk about the homes themselves. While sales are up, the available inventory of homes is a bit of a mixed bag.

  • Inventory Levels: At the end of November, there were 1.33 million homes on the market. That’s a 2.9% dip from October, but a 17.7% jump compared to the same time last year. So, while there are still more choices for buyers compared to last year, the month-over-month drop could suggest that things are moving pretty quickly, and buyers may still need to act decisively.
  • Months' Supply: Currently, the market has about a 3.8-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. This is down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023. A balanced market usually sits around a 6-month supply, so we're still leaning towards a sellers' market, but the situation is less skewed now than last year.

Median Home Prices: It is hard to miss the fact that prices are up. The median existing-home price in November was $406,100, which is a 4.7% increase compared to November 2023. And get this: this marks the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. That means home values have been steadily climbing, making it a good time for some homeowners who might want to sell.

Regional Price Differences: It is also interesting to note that all four major regions in the US saw price increases. However, the Northeast experienced the highest median price jump of 9.9%, reaching $475,500, while the West’s median price was the highest at $628,200. The Midwest stood at $302,000 and the South at $361,300.

Who's Buying and How Are They Paying?

It is not just the total sales numbers that are important; we must also see who is participating in this market. Let's take a closer look:

  • First-Time Buyers: They made up 30% of sales in November, up from 27% in October. However, this is slightly down from the 31% we saw in November 2023. The real kicker is that the annual share of first-time buyers in 2024 hit a historic low of 24%. This suggests that first-time buyers might still be struggling to enter the market despite some improvements.
  • Cash Buyers: Cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions, which is a slight decrease compared to 27% in both October 2024 and November 2023. This could indicate that more people are relying on mortgages again as rates have slightly stabilized.
  • Investors and Second-Home Buyers: This group made up only 13% of sales, which is down from 17% in October and 18% in November 2023. I think this indicates that the focus is shifting back to primary homeowners rather than investors looking to scoop up properties.
  • Distressed Sales: Foreclosures and short sales accounted for a very small portion of the market, just 2%. This remains consistent with last month and the previous year.

Mortgage Rates: A Key Piece of the Puzzle

Mortgage rates play a massive role in all of this. As of December 12, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. It was 6.95% a year ago, so we are seeing rates trending down slightly, which makes buying more affordable for some.

  • Current 30-Year Fixed Rate (as of Dec 12): 6.6%
  • One Week Prior: 6.69%
  • One Year Prior: 6.95%

I feel that even the slightest dips in interest rates can give potential buyers that extra bit of confidence to take the plunge.

Regional Trends: Where Are Sales Booming?

The growth in sales wasn't uniform across the country. Here's how each region performed:

  • Northeast: Existing-home sales in the Northeast saw a big jump of 8.5% from October, reaching an annual rate of 510,000, and they're up 6.3% from November 2023.
  • Midwest: In the Midwest, sales increased by 5.3% from October to an annual rate of 1 million, and they are also up 5.3% compared to last year.
  • South: The South saw a 5.6% increase in sales from October, hitting an annual rate of 1.87 million, which is a 3.3% increase from a year ago.
  • West: The West saw no change in sales from October, remaining at an annual rate of 770,000, but they are up a whopping 14.9% from November 2023, the largest Y-o-Y jump.

Regional Sales Comparison

Region November Sales (Annual Rate) MoM Change YoY Change Median Price YoY Median Price Change
Northeast 510,000 8.5% 6.3% $475,500 9.9%
Midwest 1,000,000 5.3% 5.3% $302,000 7.3%
South 1,870,000 5.6% 3.3% $361,300 2.8%
West 770,000 0.0% 14.9% $628,200 4.0%

It is clear from these numbers that the West is experiencing the highest Y-o-Y sales growth, but the Northeast is seeing the biggest price appreciation.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you are thinking about buying or selling, all this can be a lot to take in. Here is my quick summary, based on my understanding:

  • For Buyers: While inventory is a bit tight in some places, there are definitely more homes available than there were last year, and prices are still going up. It's time to weigh your options carefully, get pre-approved for a mortgage, and be ready to move quickly when you find a place you love. Don't get discouraged by a high interest rate. If you're going to live in the home long term, you can always refinance when the rates go down.
  • For Sellers: It’s still a good time to sell, as prices continue to climb. If you have been waiting, now might be a good time to consider listing your property, especially in regions like the Northeast where prices are spiking.
  • Overall: The market is showing signs of stability and growth, but it's still a very dynamic environment. I think it's critical to stay informed and work with a qualified real estate professional who knows the market.

My Final Thoughts

Personally, I'm finding these recent housing market trends quite intriguing. The increased sales, combined with the steady price growth, suggests we're moving into a more stable phase after the turbulence of the past couple of years. The market is showing signs of balance, which could lead to a healthier and more sustainable housing environment in the long run. The slightly reduced interest rates, along with growing employment numbers, have started to play their part.

I hope this in-depth look at the latest housing market data has been insightful for you. It is so important to stay updated and to understand what these numbers mean for your personal goals.

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Filed Under: Housing Market, Mortgage, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Home Price, home sales, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends, Real Estate Market

Existing Home Sales Predicted to Remain at 30-year Low in 2025

December 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Existing Home Sales Predicted to Remain at 30-year Low in 2025

If you've been following the housing market, you know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. It feels like we’re all holding our breath, waiting for things to change, especially if you're hoping to buy or sell a house soon. I’ve been watching these trends closely, and honestly, the latest news is a bit sobering. According to Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, existing home sales are expected to stay near their 30-year lows throughout 2025. Yep, you read that right.

Now, before you panic, let’s break down what this actually means, why it’s happening, and what you can expect if you're navigating this tricky market. I'll also throw in my two cents based on what I'm seeing out there.

Existing Home Sales Predicted to Remain at 30-year Low in 2025

What Does “Near 30-Year Lows” Really Mean?

First off, let's put this into perspective. Thirty years ago, in the early to mid-1990s, the housing market was a completely different beast. Mortgage rates were higher, and home prices were considerably lower than they are today. When we say “near 30-year lows,” we’re talking about a significant slowdown in the number of existing homes being sold compared to the last three decades. Basically, fewer people are selling their homes, and fewer people are buying them.

This means less movement in the market overall. Fewer opportunities for sellers to make a quick move and fewer options for buyers looking for their dream home. It paints a picture of a housing market that's, well, stuck.

Why Are We Stuck?

So, what's causing this standstill? Well, there are a few key factors at play, and they’re all interconnected like a messy ball of yarn.

  • The “Lock-In” Effect: This is a big one. A lot of current homeowners have low mortgage rates – think 3% or even lower – from when the rates were at rock bottom. The thought of trading that in for a 6% or higher interest rate is a tough pill to swallow. This keeps people put. It’s like they are “locked-in” to their current homes, and they’re not eager to give up that low rate. This results in fewer homes hitting the market.
  • High Mortgage Rates: Even though rates are predicted to decline modestly, the fact that they are expected to stay above 6% is a major hurdle. The cost of borrowing money is still high, which means higher monthly payments for homebuyers. This immediately pushes many buyers out of the market altogether, especially first-time buyers. In my experience, I've seen many families postpone their home buying plans because of this.
  • Affordability Issues: It's not just the mortgage rates. Even if rates dipped a bit, home prices are still elevated in many areas. This combination of higher prices and high interest rates makes buying a home incredibly challenging. As Fannie Mae also notes, supply is still below pre-pandemic levels. It's a perfect storm of factors making it hard for many folks to get their foot in the door of homeownership.

Fannie Mae's 2025 Housing Market Predictions in Detail

Let's dig a little deeper into what Fannie Mae is predicting. They've laid out a few key trends to watch in 2025. Here’s a breakdown of their predictions and my take on each:

  • Modest Decline in Mortgage Rates: They predict that mortgage rates will decrease slightly, but they will stay above 6%, with periods of volatility. This volatility is key to watch. Even with average higher rates, temporary drops might offer brief windows for buyers to jump in. As a real estate watcher, I think it’s crucial for those in the market to stay vigilant and be ready to move when those dips occur.
  • Existing Home Sales Remain Near 30-Year Lows: This is the big one we’ve been talking about. The “lock-in” effect and affordability issues, they are all converging to keep activity subdued. We’re not expecting some massive wave of homes hitting the market anytime soon.
  • New Home Sales as a Bright Spot: Here's a bit of good news. New home sales are expected to be stronger. Builders are actively targeting first-time homebuyers with new offerings. If you are open to new construction, that's something you can explore. But keep in mind this is limited to areas where building is possible and affordable.
  • Decelerating National Home Price Growth: Fannie Mae predicts that national home price growth will slow down. While this doesn't mean a massive price drop, it could offer a bit of relief to buyers. I think this slow down is more of a return to normalcy and should be welcomed. It gives a bit of breathing room to the market.
  • Multifamily Housing in a Holding Pattern: The multifamily housing sector, like apartments and rentals, is expected to remain stable. This is an area I think needs more attention because with fewer options to buy, rental becomes the only choice for many.

A Closer Look at Regional Differences

It's critical to understand that the housing market is not uniform. What’s happening in one area might be totally different in another. Fannie Mae points out some big regional differences:

  • The Sun Belt: This is where construction has been active, and builders are focusing on first-time homebuyers. I've noticed more activity here with more development being built that’s creating an option to purchase new construction. You might see a little more movement in this market compared to other areas.
  • The Northeast: This area is expected to remain constrained. Supply is already low and there is less room for new construction. This means prices might be stickier and competition for existing homes will likely remain high. This is a common experience for those of us who've been watching the northeast closely.

A Glimmer of Hope: Wage Growth

One encouraging thing I am seeing is Fannie Mae's mention that nominal wage growth is expected to surpass home price growth in 2025. This hasn't happened in over a decade. This means that, slowly but surely, people might see their income finally catch up to the price of housing. This could offer some much-needed relief to potential homebuyers, but it won't be an overnight fix.

What This Means For You

So, how should you interpret this data? Here's my take on it:

If you're a potential buyer:

  • Be Patient and Vigilant: Don’t expect a drastic market change overnight. Keep an eye out for those temporary dips in mortgage rates and be prepared to act fast.
  • Consider New Construction: If your area has new construction happening, explore these options. Builders are trying to lure in first time buyers with incentives, so you could find a good deal.
  • Be Flexible on Location: If you can be flexible with your location, you might find more opportunities in areas that have more supply.
  • Budget Carefully: It's even more critical than ever to budget realistically and understand your long-term financial obligations.

If you're a potential seller:

  • Realize It's a Slower Market: Don’t expect your home to fly off the shelves immediately. You may need to be more patient.
  • Price Competitively: With a constrained market, pricing accurately is key. Don't overprice your home, or it may sit for months.
  • Consider Timing: If you can, timing your sale to coincide with periods of lower mortgage rates could help attract buyers.

For everyone else:

  • Stay Informed: It’s crucial to stay updated on the latest market trends, especially if you’re thinking about a move in the near future. Things can change quickly, and staying informed can help you make better decisions.
  • Prepare: Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, preparation is vital. Look at all your financial details and get pre-approved if you are thinking of purchasing.

My Final Thoughts

As someone who follows the housing market closely, I can tell you that these are challenging times. But, knowledge is power. Knowing what to expect can help you navigate these challenges more effectively. The housing market is complex, and it's important to look at data, consider your own local situations, and adjust your expectations. I believe that the market will eventually turn around, but it may be a while before we see a big shift.

Here’s a summary of the data we discussed:

Prediction Detail My Take
Mortgage Rates Modest decline, but above 6%, with volatility Watch for temporary dips for opportunities
Existing Home Sales Near 30-year lows Don't expect a rapid market rebound
New Home Sales Stronger than existing homes Explore new construction if possible
National Home Price Growth Decelerating A welcome return to normal
Multifamily Housing Remains in a holding pattern More attention is needed to alleviate stress for those who can't buy
Regional Differences Sun Belt stronger, Northeast constrained Understand your local market conditions
Wage Growth Expected to outpace home price growth A positive sign for potential buyers, but gradual relief

The data from Fannie Mae paints a picture of a market that's sluggish and will likely remain so through 2025. The combination of high mortgage rates, affordability issues, and the lock-in effect are all contributing to a constrained housing market. While things may change slowly over time, it's clear that we're in for more of the same for now. I hope this in-depth view of the market will help you in making a decision with your home buying and selling needs.

Partner with Norada, Your Trusted Source for Turnkey Investment Properties

Discover high-quality, ready-to-rent properties designed to deliver consistent returns. Contact us today to expand your real estate portfolio with confidence.

Reach out to our investment counselors:

(949) 218-6668 | (800) 611-3060

Contact Us Today

 

Recommended Read:

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  • NAR Predicts 6% Mortgage Rates in 2025 Will Boost Housing Market
  • Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2024-2026
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2028
  • Housing Market Predictions for Next Year: Prices to Rise by 4.4%
  • Housing Market Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by NAR Chief
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years: Top 5 Predictions for Future
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Mortgage, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Home Price, home sales, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends, Real Estate Market

Why a 2008-Style Housing Market Crash is Unlikely in 2025?

December 20, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Why a 2008-Style Housing Market Crash is Unlikely in 2025?

While headlines might paint a picture of a looming crash, a closer look at the data reveals a housing market more likely to experience a slowdown than a dramatic collapse. Let's delve into the key factors that suggest stability rather than a freefall in 2025.

Why a 2008-Style Housing Market Crash is Unlikely in 2025?

The most critical factor mitigating a crash is the stark contrast in inventory levels between 2008 and today. In the lead-up to the 2008 crisis, a glut of foreclosed properties flooded the market, creating a buyer's paradise and driving prices down. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports a national inventory of 3.8 months of supply in November 2024 [NAR], a far cry from the excessive supply that fueled the previous crash.

Imagine a scenario with ten eager homebuyers chasing only two available houses. Bidding wars naturally erupt, pushing prices upwards. This simple principle of supply and demand is precisely why a crash, fueled by an abundance of for-sale homes, is unlikely in 2025.

Data Spotlight: Inventory Levels

  • March 2024: 4.3 months of national housing supply (NAR)
  • Pre-2008 Crash: A significant surplus of foreclosed homes flooded the market

Guarding the Gates: Stricter Mortgage Lending

Another crucial safeguard against a crash is the significant tightening of mortgage lending standards since 2008. Reckless subprime lending practices, where unqualified borrowers received mortgages they couldn't afford, were a major catalyst for the previous crisis. Today, lenders have significantly stricter credit score requirements and often demand larger down payments.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports that the average credit score for a conventional mortgage in 2023 was 740, a substantial increase from the pre-crash era [FHFA]. This stricter vetting process ensures that homebuyers are financially prepared for homeownership, reducing the risk of mass defaults that could trigger a market collapse.

Data Spotlight: Mortgage Lending Standards

  • Pre-2008 Crash: Subprime lending practices were widespread.
  • 2023: The average credit score for a conventional mortgage is 740 (FHFA).

The Demographic Engine: Millennials Fuel Demand

Millennials, the largest generation in American history, are now entering their prime homebuying years. According to a report by Freddie Mac, 41% of millennials expect to buy a home in the next two years [Freddie Mac]. This surge in demand, coupled with the limited housing supply, will continue to exert upward pressure on prices. Even with rising interest rates, the sheer number of millennials seeking homeownership will act as a buffer against a significant price decline.

Data Spotlight: Millennial Homeownership

  • 41% of Millennials: Expect to buy a home in the next two years (Freddie Mac)

Location, Location, Location: A Market of Many Markets

It's important to remember that the national housing market is an umbrella term encompassing numerous regional markets, each with its own dynamics. While some areas, particularly those with stagnant job growth or overinflated housing bubbles, might experience a cooling-off period, a nationwide crash is highly improbable.

Regions with robust job markets, limited housing stock, and desirable locations are likely to see continued price stability, if not growth. For instance, Austin, Texas, with its booming tech industry and limited housing development, is expected to see continued price appreciation despite a national slowdown [MarketWatch]. So, while the national narrative might be one of caution, a closer look at your specific local market can provide a more accurate picture.

Navigating the 2025 Housing Market: Tips for Homebuyers

While the chances of a 2008-style crash are low, the current market does require a more cautious and informed approach from potential homeowners. Here are some key tips to navigate the 2024 housing market:

  • Embrace Patience: With low inventory and high competition, finding your dream home might take longer than expected. Be prepared to be flexible on your timeline and open to considering different neighborhoods or property types.
  • Get Pre-Approved: Don't waste time house hunting without a pre-approval letter from a lender. Knowing your budget upfront strengthens your offer and demonstrates seriousness to sellers.
  • Work with a Local Realtor: A knowledgeable realtor can provide invaluable insights into your specific market, including price trends, negotiation strategies, and local considerations.
  • Focus on Long-Term Value: Don't get caught up in bidding wars over every available property. prioritize homes with strong long-term value, such as good school districts or desirable locations that will retain their worth.
  • Consider All Costs: Factor in not just the mortgage payment, but also property taxes, homeowners insurance, and potential maintenance costs when determining affordability.

Beyond the Headlines: A Time for Opportunity

While some may view the current market with trepidation, it's important to acknowledge the potential opportunities. Here are a few reasons why buying in 2024 might still be a wise decision:

  • Historically Low Interest Rates (Compared to Past Decades): While interest rates have risen from recent lows, they are still historically low compared to past decades. This translates to lower monthly mortgage payments compared to what buyers faced in previous eras.
  • Long-Term Investment: Historically, real estate has proven to be a sound long-term investment. Owning a home allows you to build equity and provides a hedge against inflation.
  • Stability in a Volatile World: In an era of economic uncertainty, homeownership can provide a sense of stability and security.

The Bottom Line: Knowledge is Power

The housing market is likely to be a period of adjustment, not a crash. By understanding the key factors at play, conducting thorough research, and working with qualified professionals, prospective homebuyers can navigate the current environment and make informed decisions. Remember, buying a home is a significant financial commitment, but with the right approach, it can be a rewarding investment in your future.

Recommended Read:

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  • 3 BIG Cities Facing High Housing BUBBLE Risk: Crash Alert?
  • Will Fed's Policy Lead to a Crash in the Housing Market?
  • Will Housing Be Cheaper if the Market Crashes in 2025?
  • Will the Next HOUSING CRASH Be WORSE Than 2008?
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Home Price Decline, Housing Market, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Trends

5 High Risk Housing Markets for 2025 Buyers Should Avoid

December 18, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

5 High Risk Housing Markets Facing Crash: Avoid These Markets

Are you thinking about buying a home in 2025, or maybe you're looking to invest in real estate? If so, you're probably aware that the housing market has been going through a period of change. Some experts believe a housing market crash is looming in certain areas of the country.

This article aims to help you navigate these uncertain times by providing you with information about the 5 riskiest markets that could potentially face a major drop in home prices in 2025. Being prepared and understanding the potential risks associated with the housing market, even in specific areas can help you make sound decisions and protect your financial well-being. So, let's dive in and examine these markets in greater detail.

Housing Market Crash: 5 Riskiest Markets to Avoid in 2025

Understanding the Current Housing Market

As of November 2024, the national housing market has shown signs of slowing down. Home prices increased by 3.4% year-over-year in September 2024. However, month-over-month growth has been rather flat since late summer. In fact, home price growth is projected to decline slightly from September 2024 to October 2024 before seeing a modest year-over-year increase by 2.3% from September 2024 to September 2025. Several factors contribute to this relatively flat market.

  • Mortgage Rate Volatility: Mortgage rates have been fluctuating, causing some buyers to hesitate before making a purchase. The potential impact of the upcoming election is adding uncertainty to the overall market.
  • Economic Uncertainty: The U.S. economy showed a weak job growth number of just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in nearly four years. This kind of news can make people nervous about the economy's future and their ability to afford a home.
  • Buyer Hesitation: Many homebuyers have decided to wait and see what happens with mortgage rates and the overall economy before they commit to buying a home. They believe that there might be a better opportunity in the future.

These factors are contributing to a cautious outlook on the housing market. Now, let's see which areas are most vulnerable to a housing market crash in 2025.

CoreLogic's Market Risk Indicator (MRI)

I always like to use the resources that provide the most reliable and up-to-date information on the housing market crash. CoreLogic is a leading provider of property information and analytics. They have a very useful tool called the Market Risk Indicator (MRI). This tool provides insights into the overall health of the housing market across the country and, in my opinion, it is one of the best resources to utilize for assessing potential housing market crash risk in various locations.

The MRI considers various factors to determine the probability of a home price decline in a particular area. This includes things like job growth, affordability, inventory levels, and the overall state of the local economy. Based on the CoreLogic MRI, five metropolitan areas are at a very high risk of a home price decline over the next 12 months.

5 Riskiest Housing Markets to Avoid in

5 Riskiest Housing Markets to Avoid in
Source: CoreLogic

Now let's dive deeper into the five metropolitan areas that are facing the highest risk of a home price decline based on CoreLogic's MRI. It's important to remember that these are predictions, and actual results may vary.

1. Provo-Orem, UT

  • Risk Level: Very High
  • Probability of Price Decline: Above 70%
  • Confidence Score: 50-75%

Provo-Orem, located in the heart of Utah, experienced explosive growth during the pandemic and it is still a very popular location. This growth fueled a surge in home prices, but now the market appears to be cooling down, potentially leading to a price decline.

My thoughts: I believe that the market in Provo-Orem was simply too hot too fast. The prices were out of sync with fundamentals like local wages, which were not keeping up with price appreciation. Now, with interest rate uncertainty and the cooling economy, this market is becoming vulnerable.

2. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

  • Risk Level: Very High
  • Probability of Price Decline: Above 70%
  • Confidence Score: 50-75%

Atlanta, like many other Southern metropolitan areas, has experienced a strong housing market in recent years. However, it has become more vulnerable to a downturn due to rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and overall economic uncertainty.

My thoughts: Atlanta has a strong history as a major business hub. While the metro area might experience a pullback, I think a decline in prices would be relatively short-lived. The economy will eventually rebound, and homebuyers will return to the market. But in the short-term, I would be cautious about buying a home in Atlanta.

3. Salt Lake City, UT

  • Risk Level: Very High
  • Probability of Price Decline: Above 70%
  • Confidence Score: 50-75%

Salt Lake City was one of the fastest-growing housing markets in the United States, and during that time the median home price increased by a significant amount. However, like Provo-Orem, a rapid rise in prices and cooling economy could lead to a price correction.

My thoughts: The Salt Lake City metro area has lots of economic drivers and is a beautiful location. The concerns here are very similar to those of Provo-Orem. The market heated up too quickly and might be in for a decline over the next year.

4. Gainesville, FL

  • Risk Level: Very High
  • Probability of Price Decline: Above 70%
  • Confidence Score: 50-75%

Gainesville is a college town with a large student population. This can sometimes make housing markets more volatile. The Gainesville market is at risk due to several factors like affordability concerns and a potential slowdown in student enrollment.

My thoughts: Gainesville has historically been a reliable housing market, and the presence of the University of Florida adds stability. But, the market is still vulnerable to interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty.

5. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

  • Risk Level: Very High
  • Probability of Price Decline: Above 70%
  • Confidence Score: 50-75%

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville is a region that is reliant on the aerospace and defense industries. While the local economy is strong, it also makes the area subject to changes in federal spending. With a large supply of homes and a cooling economy, the market is vulnerable to price declines.

My thoughts: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville has a strong economy, but the high concentration of employment within a few industries means that it's vulnerable to changes in defense spending and other factors. The risks are certainly present in this area.

Understanding the Risks and Mitigating Them

While these five areas are identified as high-risk, it's crucial to remember that not all homes in these markets will necessarily experience the same level of price decline. Homes that are in excellent condition, well-located, and offer desirable features will likely hold their value better during a downturn.

Here are some tips to consider if you're looking to buy a home in these high-risk markets:

  • Do your homework: Research the local market and understand the factors that contribute to the risk of a housing market crash. Look at recent sales data, inventory levels, and economic indicators.
  • Don't overpay: Avoid getting caught up in bidding wars or paying top dollar for a home. Try to negotiate the best price possible to protect your investment.
  • Get pre-approved for a mortgage: Knowing how much you can afford will help you avoid overspending on a home.
  • Consider your personal financial situation: Make sure you can afford your mortgage payments even if home prices decline.
  • Be prepared for a possible price drop: If you are in the high-risk areas, have a strategy for how you will deal with a potential decrease in home value.
  • Be realistic about your expectations: Don't expect to get rich quick by investing in real estate, especially in a potentially volatile market.

Factors to Consider Beyond the MRI

While the CoreLogic MRI is a valuable tool, it is important to consider other factors that could influence the housing market in these areas. For example:

  • Local job market: Strong local job growth can help support home values.
  • New construction: An increase in new homes can put downward pressure on prices.
  • Interest rates: Rising interest rates will likely reduce affordability and slow down the market.
  • Inventory levels: If the number of homes for sale increases, it could lead to a price decline.

The Bottom Line

The housing market is dynamic, and prices can fluctuate based on various economic and local factors. The five markets highlighted above are at a high risk of experiencing home price declines in the next 12 months, according to CoreLogic's MRI.

It is my belief that you should proceed with caution in these markets. If you are considering buying a home, it is essential to do your research, understand the risks, and make informed decisions.

I hope this article has helped you better understand the potential risks and provided valuable information to help you make informed decisions about your real estate goals in 2025.

Recommended Read:

  • 3 BIG Cities Facing High Housing BUBBLE Risk: Crash Alert?
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Trending News Tagged With: Home Price Crash, Housing Decline, Housing Market, housing market crash, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions, Housing Market Slowdown

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    June 4, 2025Marco Santarelli
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