Is the Florida & Texas housing boom ending? Experts predict a market correction, with potential price drops. It has been approximately two years since mortgage rates surged, causing a slowdown in the previously bustling housing market. Despite a significant drop in sales, home prices have continued to rise across the nation, making housing affordability worse than it has been in decades.

Recently, however, housing experts have been predicting that the balance of supply and demand might be catching up with the market. Some foresee a correction or even a crash. Technical Traders strategist Chris Vermeulen notes that current trends in new construction are a “sign that things are really breaking down.”

What are the chances these forecasts will become reality? Upon examining the data, it's clear that the housing market is not uniform. Some areas are prospering, while others are faltering.

24 of the country's 150 largest metros have already seen year-over-year listing price declines as of May. Of those, 13 have also decreased compared to two years ago. Could this trickle of falling prices turn into a flood that drives America’s entire housing market into correction territory? Identifying where prices are likely to drop next can provide some insight.

Where Prices Are Likely to Drop?

Realtor.com® housing data was analyzed among the 150 largest metros to pinpoint housing markets with the highest growth in the number of homes for sale compared to a year ago, and lengthening time on the market. These variables were also checked against two years earlier when the COVID-19 pandemic peaked with soaring demand and record-high prices.

From this, the list was narrowed to metros where listing levels are currently above where they were at the same time in 2019, before the housing market’s rapid shift. Realtor.com senior economic analyst Hannah Jones explains, “Increasing inventory levels are a sign that the market is starting to balance out.”

Here are the areas most likely to see price declines.

Florida

Florida's housing market is showing mixed signals. In six of the 15 Florida markets that fall into the 150 largest metros in the U.S., prices are already down year over year. Miami’s median list price is down 8%, and Naples’ median list price has dropped by 13% compared to this time last year.

In five other Florida metros, prices are still rising compared to a year ago, but market conditions suggest prices may need to come down to meet buyer demand. For instance, in the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville metro, active listings have more than tripled from around 1,100 in May 2022 to over 3,600 in May 2024. Despite these changes, the median price per square foot is still up 5% year over year.

Orlando, the largest Florida metro identified, shows similar trends with the number of homes for sale more than tripling in the past two years and the average time on the market nearly doubling. The median price per square foot is up slightly year over year and flat compared to two years ago, indicating a potential correction.

Other areas like Pensacola, Ocala, and Deltona also show signs of a potential downturn. In Pensacola, the average time on the market has increased from under three weeks two years ago to nearly eight weeks now.

Jones explains, “A lot of these areas, when they’re affordable, they’re highly desirable, but as soon as they got unaffordable, they were no longer a great opportunity.”

Texas

Similar to Florida, Texas has seen rising demand for years due to its affordability compared to coastal metros. Corpus Christi tops the list, with the median price per square foot growing 8% over the past year and 14% compared to two years ago, despite the increasing housing supply and longer time on the market.

Real estate agent Hannah Husby from Keller Williams Coastal Bend in Corpus Christi notes, “There’s still the mindset of sellers to think like, ‘Oh, I can just put whatever price and I’ll get it and I’m just going to wait for the right person to come along,’ but buyers are just not there at the prices that the sellers want.”

McAllen and Killeen are other Texas markets where listing levels and time on the market indicate a tipping point. Killeen has almost twice as many homes for sale as pre-pandemic times and nearly quadruple the listings from two years ago.

Austin, a pandemic boomtown, is now experiencing a downturn. Home prices in Austin are flat year over year and down 8% compared to two years ago.

Denver, CO

Denver has seen the pace of sales slow dramatically. Two years ago, the average home sold in just 10 days; now, it takes about 29 days. Despite this, the price per square foot has continued to rise, with 2% growth year over year and 5% compared to two years ago. The number of active listings has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Jones highlights, “In Denver, 57% of homes have a price reduction. That's crazy.”

Potential Correction Markets

Corpus Christi, TX

• Median list price: $359,975
• Number of homes for sale: 2,136 (up 131% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 69 (up 31 from two years ago)

Palm Bay, FL

• Median list price: $399,000
• Number of homes for sale: 3,647 (up 243% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 50 (up 21 from two years ago)

McAllen, TX

• Median list price: $279,000
• Number of homes for sale: 2,330 (up 143% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 64 (up 25 from two years ago)

Denver, CO

• Median list price: $639,000
• Number of homes for sale: 7,539 (up 120% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 29 (up 19 from two years ago)

Deltona, FL

• Median list price: $399,900
• Number of homes for sale: 5,435 (up 219% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 62 (up 35 from two years ago)

Ocala, FL

• Median list price: $306,038
• Number of homes for sale: 2,731 (up 239% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 59 (up 29 from two years ago)

Orlando, FL

• Median list price: $440,457
• Number of homes for sale: 10,087 (up 174% from two years ago)
• Median days on the market: 51 (up 24 from two years ago)

The housing market shows signs of a potential correction, with some areas already experiencing price declines. The coming months will reveal whether these trends continue and if the broader market will follow suit.

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In a time when housing affordability is already a pressing issue, both homeowners and renters are feeling the financial strain as housing costs continue to rise. Elevated home prices, climbing interest rates, and increasing insurance and tax costs are putting potential homebuyers at a disadvantage. Simultaneously, renters are grappling with soaring rents, resulting in record levels of cost burdens. Let's break down the recent report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Housing Crisis Worsens in the US

Homeowners Face Rising Costs

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, home prices reached a new high in early 2024, continuing an upward trend that saw a 6.4 percent annual increase in February. This spike follows a 5.6 percent rise in 2023, bringing the index up 47 percent since early 2020. The increase in home prices has been particularly pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest, with more subdued growth in the South and West.

The implications of these price increases are significant. Many potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market, with higher interest rates compounding the challenge. The average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 7 percent, substantially higher than the rates many current homeowners enjoy.

This rate disparity creates a “lock-in” effect, discouraging existing homeowners from selling and further limiting the supply of homes on the market. As a result, the inventory of homes for sale remains critically low, with just 1.1 million homes available in March 2024, down from 1.7 million in March 2019. This represents only 3.2 months of supply, even with a reduced sales rate.

In addition to rising home prices, homeowners are also facing higher insurance premiums and property taxes. Between May 2022 and May 2023, home insurance premiums increased by an average of 21 percent, according to Policygenius. Property taxes have also been on the rise, further adding to the financial burden for homeowners. These increased costs are pushing more homeowners into cost-burdened status, where they spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing and utilities.

Renters Struggle with Escalating Rents

While rent growth has slowed to just 0.2 percent year-over-year in early 2024, rents have surged by 26 percent nationwide since early 2020. This has led to a significant increase in the number of cost-burdened renters, with 22.4 million households spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities in 2022. Of these, 12.1 million are severely cost-burdened, spending over half their income on housing.

The rental market has seen some cooling due to an influx of new multifamily rental units. Multifamily completions rose by 22 percent to 449,900 units in 2023, the highest annual level in over three decades.

This increase in supply has led to a slight rise in vacancy rates, which reached 5.9 percent in early 2024, more than double the record low of 2.5 percent in early 2022. However, the cooling effect on rents has been modest, and the overall affordability crisis remains severe.

Cost burdens are particularly severe for low-income renters, with 83 percent of those earning less than $30,000 annually facing significant financial strain. Racial disparities also persist, with higher cost-burden rates among Black, Hispanic, and multiracial renter households compared to their white and Asian counterparts.

More than half of Black (57 percent), Hispanic (54 percent), and multiracial (50 percent) renter households were cost-burdened in 2022. For the lowest-income renters, the median residual income—the amount left after paying for housing and utilities—is just $310 per month, barely enough to cover other basic needs.

New Construction and Market Dynamics

Despite the rising costs, single-family home construction is accelerating, and a surge of new multifamily rental units is helping to slightly cool the rental market. In 2023, multifamily completions rose by 22 percent, reaching the highest annual level in over three decades. However, the high cost of construction and financing challenges are expected to slow the pace of new unit additions.

Multifamily construction starts have plummeted from an annualized rate of 531,000 units in the first half of 2023 to just 343,000 units in the first quarter of 2024.

This decline is due to a combination of rising construction costs, higher financing costs, and tighter credit conditions. As a result, while the number of units under construction remains near record highs, the pace of new additions to the rental market is expected to slow in the coming years.

The rental market has seen some cooling due to an influx of new multifamily rental units. Multifamily completions rose by 22 percent to 449,900 units in 2023, the highest annual level in over three decades.

This increase in supply has led to a slight rise in vacancy rates, which reached 5.9 percent in early 2024, more than double the record low of 2.5 percent in early 2022. However, the cooling effect on rents has been modest, and the overall affordability crisis remains severe.

Demographic Trends and Household Growth

Despite high housing costs, household growth remained robust through last year. The nation gained 1.7 million households between 2022 and 2023, according to the Housing Vacancy Survey. Though lower than the previous year’s 1.9 million new households, this is still a significant uptick from the 1.1 million annual pace averaged in the 2010s.

This growth is driven largely by Gen Zers (born 1995—2009) benefiting from the healthy labor market and millennials (born 1980—1994) who got a late start on forming their own households because of the Great Recession. Additionally, the large population of baby boomers is increasing the number of older households.

Another major contributor to robust household growth is ballooning immigration, which peaked at 3.3 million in 2023 according to the Congressional Budget Office, after averaging 919,000 annually in the 2010s. The majority of this increase is asylum seekers facing challenges that will slow their housing trajectories. But household growth may remain strong for some time, as this population will eventually form households.

Challenges Ahead and Call to Action

As household growth continues and the housing market struggles to keep up, the urgency to address the affordability crisis becomes ever more pressing. The inadequate housing safety net, the record number of people experiencing homelessness, and the growing threat of climate change are challenges that require immediate and coordinated action.

Policymakers, developers, and community organizations must collaborate to create sustainable solutions. Expanding affordable housing options, providing support for cost-burdened households, and investing in resilient infrastructure are critical steps toward mitigating the housing crisis. Additionally, addressing racial disparities in housing and ensuring equitable access to safe and affordable homes must be prioritized.

The housing affordability crisis is a complex issue that demands a multifaceted approach. With concerted efforts from all stakeholders, it is possible to create a housing market that is fair, inclusive, and sustainable for all.

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The housing market remains a significant driver of the economy, and despite challenges such as rising unaffordability, the demand for housing continues to grow. This growth is primarily fueled by the younger generations, particularly Gen Z and millennials.

These groups are forming new households at a remarkable rate, influencing the housing market's dynamics. According to the Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, young adults, alongside the baby boomers, are pivotal in sustaining housing demand.

Housing Demand Remains Robust Due to Gen Z and Millennials

Household Formation and Growth

Despite increasing unaffordability, household growth has remained elevated. The Housing Vacancy Survey reported that 1.7 million new households were added in 2023, slightly down from the 1.9 million households formed in 2022. These numbers are significantly higher than the average of 1.1 million households added annually over the previous decade. By the end of 2023, there were 130.3 million households in the United States, with 85.9 million homeowners and 44.5 million renters.

Gen Z and Millennials Leading the Way

The bulk of recent household growth is among Gen Z (born 1995–2009) and millennials (born 1980–1994). As they enter their peak household formation years, these generations are significantly influencing the housing market. From 2017 to 2022, Gen Z formed 8.1 million households, mostly renter households. Millennials, on the other hand, added 6.9 million new households, with most becoming homeowners.

Influence of Gen X and Baby Boomers

While Gen X (born 1965–1979) added a more modest 1.1 million households during the same period, baby boomers (born 1946–1964) saw a decline, losing 850,000 households largely due to mortality. However, baby boomers remain influential in the housing market, accounting for 32 percent of all householders and 38 percent of all homeowner households. Despite the decline, the number of households headed by adults aged 65 and over increased by 16 percent over the past five years.

Demographic Shifts and Diversity

The demographic composition of new households is changing, with younger generations being more racially diverse. Among Gen Z and millennial households, 56 percent are white, 19 percent Hispanic, 13 percent Black, 6 percent Asian, and 6 percent multiracial or another race. In contrast, 72 percent of baby boomer householders are white. This diversity is further enhanced by immigration, which surged in 2023, significantly contributing to household growth. Immigrants play a vital role in sustaining housing demand, especially as natural population growth slows.

Economic Disparities

Despite rising wages, economic disparities persist, affecting housing affordability. While some benefit from substantial home equity gains, others struggle with low wealth, income, and high housing costs. This economic divide highlights the varying experiences within the housing market, even as overall demand remains strong.

Conclusion

The growth in housing demand, driven by Gen Z and millennials, is shaping the future of the real estate market. These younger generations, along with the enduring influence of baby boomers, ensure a dynamic and evolving housing landscape. As the market adapts to these demographic shifts and economic challenges, understanding the factors driving demand is crucial for stakeholders in the housing industry.

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U.S. house prices have shown a steady increase over the past year, with a significant rise of 6.3 percent from April 2023 to April 2024. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the month-to-month increase from March to April 2024 was 0.2 percent. However, this growth reflects a slight slowdown compared to previous months, influenced by rising mortgage rates and an increase in housing inventory.

US Home Prices: A Comprehensive Analysis

Regional Price Changes

When we break down the data by region, we see variations in the rate of house price increases. The East South Central division saw the highest monthly increase of 1.4 percent from March to April 2024. On the other hand, both the West South Central and Middle Atlantic divisions experienced a slight decrease of -0.2 percent during the same period.

Over the past year, all nine census divisions recorded positive growth in house prices. The New England and Middle Atlantic divisions led with the highest annual increases of 8.5 percent, while the West South Central division had the smallest annual increase at 3.0 percent.

Monthly Price Change Estimates

Let's dive deeper into the monthly price changes across different regions from March 2024 to April 2024:

• Pacific: 0.4%
• Mountain: 0.0%
• West North Central: 0.6%
• West South Central: -0.2%
• East North Central: 0.2%
• East South Central: 1.4%
• New England: 0.7%
• Middle Atlantic: -0.2%
• South Atlantic: 0.1%

Annual Price Change Estimates

The annual price changes from April 2023 to April 2024 further illustrate the regional disparities:

• U.S. Average: 6.3%
• Pacific: 5.7%
• Mountain: 5.2%
• West North Central: 6.7%
• West South Central: 3.0%
• East North Central: 7.9%
• East South Central: 6.1%
• New England: 8.5%
• Middle Atlantic: 8.5%
• South Atlantic: 6.4%

Factors Influencing the Housing Market

Several factors have contributed to the current trends in U.S. home prices. The slight rise in mortgage rates has played a role in slowing down the rapid price appreciation seen in previous months. Additionally, an increase in housing inventory has provided more options for buyers, helping to moderate price growth.

According to Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, the market is beginning to show signs of normalization. This indicates that while prices are still rising, the rate of increase is becoming more sustainable compared to the frenetic pace observed in earlier periods.

Historical Monthly Changes

Examining historical data reveals fluctuations in monthly price changes across various regions:

• February 2024 to March 2024: The U.S. average remained unchanged at 0.0 percent, with notable decreases in the Pacific (-1.1 percent) and Middle Atlantic (-0.6 percent) regions, while the New England division saw a substantial increase of 1.0 percent.
• January 2024 to February 2024: The U.S. experienced a 1.3 percent increase, led by the Pacific (1.9 percent) and New England (3.0 percent) regions.
• December 2023 to January 2024: While the overall U.S. market saw a minor decrease of -0.1 percent, the West North Central region experienced a 1.5 percent increase.
• November 2023 to December 2023: House prices rose by 0.2 percent on average, with a slight decrease in the West North Central region (-0.8 percent).
• October 2023 to November 2023: The U.S. market saw a 0.4 percent increase, with consistent growth across most regions.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing market remains robust with continued price appreciation, although at a slower pace than in previous months. Regional variations highlight the diverse nature of the market, influenced by local economic conditions, housing supply, and buyer demand. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment.

As the market shows signs of normalization, it is crucial to stay informed about the latest developments and consider regional differences when making real estate decisions. Whether you are buying or selling, being aware of these trends can help you navigate the complexities of the housing market effectively.

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In the current high-interest rate environment, many home prices across the nation have plateaued. However, some cities are bucking this trend with significant price surges. According to data from Realtor.com, the median home price in May stood at $442,500, a slight increase from $441,000 the previous year.

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale states, “The median price of homes for sale remained relatively stable compared with last year, growing by 0.3%.” The data shows that listing prices stayed unchanged year-over-year in the South but saw modest increases in other regions: the West (+0.8%), the Midwest (4.4%), and the Northeast (6.1%).

Yet, despite these modest overall gains, certain cities have experienced dramatic increases in home prices. In fact, four metro areas have seen double-digit percentage increases in home prices over the past year. Here are the 10 cities where home prices have risen the most since last year.

10 Cities Where Home Prices Are Rising Fast

1. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $300,000
Percentage change year over year: 18.6%

Buffalo leads the pack with an astounding 18.6% increase in home prices year-over-year. The median home price here is $300,000. Homes like a four-bedroom house currently on the market for $479,900 exemplify this surge.

2. Cleveland, OH

Median home price: $274,000
Percentage change year over year: 15.9%

Cleveland has also seen significant growth with a 15.9% increase. The median home price is now $274,000, with properties like a $220,000 two-story brick home highlighting this trend.

3. Pittsburgh, PA

Median home price: $264,000
Percentage change year over year: 10.8%

Pittsburgh's real estate market is heating up with a 10.8% increase in median home prices, now at $264,000. A split-level, three-bedroom home is currently listed for $349,900.

4. Philadelphia, PA

Median home price: $382,000
Percentage change year over year: 9.3%

Philadelphia's median home price has risen to $382,000, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase. Examples include a two-bedroom row home listed at $315,000.

5. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $1,248,000
Percentage change year over year: 8.5%

In Los Angeles, the median home price has climbed to $1,248,000, an 8.5% increase. Listings like a multifamily dwelling priced at $1,195,000 illustrate this growth.

6. Providence, RI

Median home price: $586,000
Percentage change year over year: 8.5%

Providence has also seen an 8.5% increase in home prices, bringing the median to $586,000. A three-bedroom home on the market for $479,000 is a typical example.

7. Riverside, CA

Median home price: $620,000
Percentage change year over year: 6.8%

Riverside’s real estate market has experienced a 6.8% increase, with the median home price now at $620,000. For instance, a four-bedroom home is listed at $899,000.

While many regions see stable or modest price changes, these 10 cities are experiencing rapid home price increases. Whether you're looking to buy or sell, staying informed about these trends can help you make better real estate decisions.

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As millions struggle with home prices, housing becomes a top issue for voters. The experience of Melissa Williams is a testament to this growing crisis. Despite having a college degree, a decent income, and no debt, Williams found herself unable to purchase a home in rural North Carolina, as reported by NPR.org.

Will Housing Crisis Become a Top Issue for Voters in Upcoming Elections?

The surge of remote workers moving into her area and the steep rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain around 7%, made homeownership unattainable. Consequently, Williams turned to rent, only to find rental costs had also skyrocketed, with even substandard options costing over $1,000 a month.

Williams’s frustration echoes a broader sentiment across the United States, as housing policy and funding, traditionally local issues, have ascended to the forefront of national concerns. In swing states and beyond, persistent record-high costs of housing have become a significant worry for many voters.

Recent surveys highlight this shift; a Gallup survey placed housing second only to inflation among Americans' financial worries, and a Harvard poll found it ranked as the third-most important issue among 18- to 29-year-olds, following inflation and healthcare.

Shamus Roller, executive director of the National Housing Law Project, emphasized the severity of the situation, stating, “This crisis is big.” He pointed out that the soaring housing costs now consume such a large portion of incomes that many people must cut back on essentials like food, medicine, and savings for future goals. The impact of these costs is not just financial but also deeply personal, affecting people's broader life aspirations.

The divergent approaches of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to this issue further underscore its importance. Despite both acknowledging the problem, their solutions differ significantly.

Biden has focused on rental assistance and incentives for new construction, advocating for building more housing as a long-term solution. During a visit to Las Vegas, he emphasized the importance of constructing new homes to lower costs permanently. Experts agree that a severe housing shortage, decades in the making, is a primary driver of high prices and homelessness.

In contrast, Trump, with his background in real estate, opposes loosening zoning laws for multifamily apartments, arguing they decrease property values. Instead, he proposes opening federal land for housing and reducing regulations, which he believes would lower costs. However, his administration's previous attempts to cut funding for affordable housing programs suggest a different approach to addressing the crisis.

The stark reality faced by many Americans, like Melissa Williams, highlights the urgency of addressing the housing crisis. Williams’s experience of being “kind of homeless” and relying on her father for affordable rent illustrates the precarious situation many find themselves in. Her dream of homeownership seems increasingly out of reach as interest rates and prices continue to climb, moving the goalpost further away each year.

What Are the Factors Contributing to the Housing Crisis?

According to a recent report by Freddie Mac, the U.S. has a staggering shortage of homes. To achieve a healthy balance in the housing market, we'd need at least 1.5 million additional homes to ease skyrocketing prices and ease the squeeze on renters and buyers – and that's likely an underestimate

The ongoing housing crisis in the United States is driven by several key factors, creating a perfect storm that has made homeownership and even renting increasingly unaffordable for millions of Americans.

1. Surging Demand and Limited Supply

The surge in demand for housing, particularly in suburban and rural areas, has been a significant driver of rising prices. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend of remote work, leading many people to relocate from urban centers to less densely populated regions. This shift has placed unprecedented pressure on housing markets that were not prepared for such an influx of buyers.

On the supply side, there has been a chronic underbuilding of new homes over the past few decades. According to housing experts, the U.S. needs millions more homes to meet the current demand. The construction industry has struggled to keep up due to a combination of factors, including high land costs, labor shortages, and stringent zoning regulations that limit the development of multifamily housing.

2. Rising Construction Costs

Construction costs have soared in recent years, contributing to the housing shortage. The prices of key building materials such as lumber, steel, and concrete have increased significantly. Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the pandemic, have further driven up costs and delayed construction projects. Additionally, the labor market for skilled construction workers is tight, with a shortage of workers pushing wages higher.

These increased costs make it more expensive to build new homes, which in turn makes them more expensive for buyers. Developers often pass these costs onto consumers, resulting in higher home prices and rents.

3. Mortgage Interest Rates

The role of mortgage interest rates in the housing crisis cannot be overstated. In 2022, mortgage rates rose sharply and have remained around 7%, a significant increase from the historically low rates of the previous decade. Higher interest rates add hundreds of dollars to monthly mortgage payments, putting homeownership out of reach for many potential buyers.

For those already paying mortgages, higher interest rates mean higher costs of refinancing and less flexibility to move or upgrade their homes. This creates a bottleneck effect, reducing the overall movement within the housing market and keeping prices high.

4. Economic Inequality and Wage Stagnation

Economic inequality and stagnant wages have exacerbated the housing crisis. While home prices and rents have soared, wages for many Americans have not kept pace. This disparity has made it increasingly difficult for low- and middle-income families to afford housing. The gap between the cost of housing and what people can afford has widened, leading to higher rates of housing insecurity and homelessness.

Economic policies that favor wealthier individuals and corporations, such as tax cuts and subsidies, have often overlooked the needs of lower-income households. As a result, many families are forced to spend a disproportionate share of their income on housing, leaving less for other essential expenses like food, healthcare, and education.

5. Speculative Investment and Real Estate Speculation

Speculative investment in real estate has also contributed to rising housing costs. Investors, both domestic and international, have been purchasing residential properties at a rapid pace, often outbidding individual homebuyers. These investors frequently buy homes with the intention of renting them out or holding them as assets, further reducing the availability of homes for owner-occupiers.

Real estate speculation drives up prices and can lead to market bubbles, as seen in the mid-2000s housing crisis. When homes are treated primarily as investment vehicles rather than places to live, it undermines the stability and affordability of housing markets.

As these factors converge, they create a daunting landscape for anyone seeking to buy or rent a home. Addressing the housing crisis requires a comprehensive approach that considers all these elements and seeks to balance the needs of current and future residents.

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The housing market can be a tumultuous landscape, but there are always regions that demonstrate resilience and stability. According to ATTOM's newly released Q1 2024 Special Housing Risk Report, certain areas in the United States are currently standing out as particularly robust against potential declines. While states like California, New Jersey, and Illinois show significant vulnerability, the South and Midwest are proving to be much less at risk.

High-Risk Regions

California, New Jersey, and Illinois have consistently shown the highest concentrations of at-risk markets. The first-quarter patterns reveal that these states accounted for 34 of the 50 U.S. counties most exposed to potential housing market declines. Notably, metropolitan areas such as New York City and Chicago, along with various inland regions of California, dominate the list of areas more prone to downturns.

The report highlighted that six counties in and around Chicago, five in the New York City metropolitan area, and 14 in various parts of California were among the 50 most vulnerable markets. These areas continue to struggle with gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment.

Stable Housing Markets

Conversely, the least vulnerable markets are predominantly found in the South and Midwest. According to ATTOM’s Q1 2024 housing impact report, 22 of the 50 least at-risk markets are located in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. Among these, four are in the Washington, DC metro area, and another four are in the Richmond, VA metro area.

In total, 24 of the counties deemed least vulnerable to housing market problems in the first-quarter report are in the South, while 19 are in the Midwest. Only four counties in the Northeast and three in the West made the list of least at-risk markets.

Top 10 Counties Least At-Risk

Here, we delve into the specifics of the ATTOM Q1 2024 Special Housing Risk Report to identify the top 10 U.S. counties that are least at risk of housing market declines:

1. Chittenden County, Vermont

Chittenden County stands out with 45.6% of income needed to buy a home, only 0.9% of properties underwater, a mere 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings, and a low 1.4% unemployment rate as of May 2024. These factors contribute to its strong market stability.

2. Shelby County, Alabama

Shelby County benefits from its proximity to Birmingham, requiring 30.0% of income to buy a home, 3.7% of properties underwater, 0.03% foreclosure filings, and a 2.3% unemployment rate in May 2024, keeping it insulated from severe downturns.

3. Davidson County, Tennessee

Home to Nashville, Davidson County requires 35.1% of income to buy a home, has 4.0% of properties underwater, 0.01% with foreclosure filings, and a 2.5% unemployment rate in May 2024, making it a stable market.

4. Albemarle County, Virginia

With Charlottesville at its heart, Albemarle County requires 42.2% of income to buy a home, has 2.8% of properties underwater, 0.01% foreclosure filings, and a 2.2% unemployment rate in May 2024, providing strong market stability.

5. Henrico County, Virginia

Henrico County, part of the Richmond metro area, requires 36.2% of income to buy a home, has 2.8% of properties underwater, 0.03% foreclosure filings, and a 2.5% unemployment rate in May 2024, shielding it from major risks.

6. Brown County, Wisconsin

Brown County, encompassing Green Bay, requires 32.3% of income to buy a home, has 3.8% of properties underwater, 0.01% foreclosure filings, and a 3.0% unemployment rate in May 2024, reducing its susceptibility to housing market declines.

7. Sullivan County, Tennessee

Located in the Tri-Cities region, Sullivan County requires 21.7% of income to buy a home, has 4.0% of properties underwater, 0.04% foreclosure filings, and a 3.1% unemployment rate in May 2024, making it one of the least vulnerable areas.

8. Knox County, Tennessee

Knox County requires 33.8% of income to buy a home, has 2.7% of properties underwater, 0.04% foreclosure filings, and a 2.5% unemployment rate in May 2024, contributing to its housing market stability.

9. Sedgwick County, Kansas

As the economic center of Kansas, Sedgwick County, which includes Wichita, requires 21.3% of income to buy a home, has 5.3% of properties underwater, 0.01% foreclosure filings, and a 3.3% unemployment rate in May 2024, maintaining its market resilience.

10. Blount County, Tennessee

Blount County requires 37.8% of income to buy a home, has 2.9% of properties underwater, 0.03% foreclosure filings, and a 2.6% unemployment rate in May 2024, ensuring its position as a stable market.
These counties exemplify regions that are well-insulated from the typical fluctuations of the housing market. Strong local economies, diverse employment opportunities, and affordable housing options are key factors that contribute to their stability.

As the housing market continues to evolve, staying informed about the least at-risk areas can provide peace of mind and smart investment opportunities. By understanding these trends, homeowners and potential buyers can make better-informed decisions about where to invest and settle.

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Housing market sees record highs but mortgage rates dip! Is it finally a good time to buy? This article explores the conflicting trends and what it means for homebuyers. The median U.S. home-sale price reached an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9.

This represents a 4.4% increase from the previous year, marking the most significant rise in approximately three months. However, there are indicators that the growth in home prices might slow down soon.

According to Redfin, asking prices have plateaued, and about 6.5% of home sellers are reducing their asking prices, the highest proportion seen since November 2022. Notably, home prices are already falling in four U.S. metropolitan areas: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX, and Portland, OR.

Declining Mortgage Rates Offer Potential Relief

In the meantime, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment has slightly decreased to $2,829, which is $30 below the record high in April. This slight reduction in monthly payments comes despite the record-high sale prices, due to a decline in weekly average mortgage rates, which have fallen to 6.99%.

Mortgage rates are expected to continue their downward trend over the summer, potentially preventing monthly housing costs from escalating again. The daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12, following a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicating that inflation is cooling.

Although the Federal Reserve projected only one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible they didn’t fully account for the latest inflation data in time for the meeting, which might lead to a revised projection in their next meeting. It is important to note that daily rates have been volatile recently; they spiked following a strong jobs report before declining again.

Expert Insight on the Market

Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, noted, “The latest inflation report is beneficial for homebuyers as it has already led to a drop in mortgage rates, though this week’s Fed meeting will likely temper further declines in mortgage rates. However, if lower mortgage rates stimulate more demand than there is supply, it could negate the potential softening of home-price growth and drive prices even higher. Ultimately, the impact of lower rates and higher prices might balance out regarding homebuyers’ monthly payments.”

Current Market Dynamics Affecting Buyers and Sellers

Currently, high costs are deterring some prospective homebuyers. Pending home sales have decreased by 3.5% year over year, marking the largest decline in over three months. Additionally, Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents, has dropped by 18%, reaching its lowest point since February.

Nevertheless, there is a positive sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications have increased by 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up by 7.8% year over year. However, these new listings remain below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices continue to rise despite the lukewarm demand.

Key Housing-Market Data

U.S. Highlights: Four Weeks Ending June 9, 2024

Redfin’s national metrics include data from over 400 U.S. metro areas, based on homes listed and/or sold during the specified period. This data provides a comprehensive look at the current state of the housing market. The following information is subject to revision.

Market Overview

• Median sale price: $393,627, a 4.4% increase year over year, reaching an all-time high. This matches the biggest increase seen during the four weeks ending April 21.
• Median asking price: $417,475, up 6% year over year.
• Median monthly mortgage payment: $2,829 at a 6.99% mortgage rate, which is an 8.6% increase year over year and $30 below the all-time high set during the four weeks ending April 28.
• Pending sales: 86,604, a 3.5% decline year over year, marking the biggest drop in over three months.
• New listings: 100,411, a 7.8% increase year over year.
• Active listings: 939,839, up 16.7% year over year.
• Months of supply: 3.2, an increase of 0.6 points. A balanced market typically has four to five months of supply; a lower number indicates seller’s market conditions.
• Share of homes off market in two weeks: 42.4%, down from 48% year over year.
• Median days on market: 31, an increase of 3 days year over year.
• Share of homes sold above list price: 32.1%, down from 35% year over year.
• Share of homes with a price drop: 6.5%, an increase of 2 points, reaching the highest level since November 2022.
• Average sale-to-list price ratio: 99.6%, a decrease of 0.3 points year over year.

Metro-Level Highlights: Four Weeks Ending June 9, 2024

The metro-level data provides insights into the housing market dynamics across the 50 most populous U.S. metros. This data highlights significant year-over-year changes in median sale prices, pending sales, and new listings, offering a detailed view of regional trends.

Metros with the Biggest Year-Over-Year Increases and Decreases

Median Sale Price

Metros with the Largest Increases:

• Anaheim, CA: 16.8%
• Newark, NJ: 16.4%
• New Brunswick, NJ: 15.5%
• Nassau County, NY: 14.6%
• San Jose, CA: 13%

Metros with the Largest Decreases:

• Austin, TX: -3.5%
• Fort Worth, TX: -2.5%
• San Antonio, TX: -1.1%
• Portland, OR: -0.9%

Note: Home prices declined in four metros.

Pending Sales

Metros with the Largest Increases:

• San Jose, CA: 12.2%
• Columbus, OH: 5.8%
• Pittsburgh, PA: 5.4%
• Milwaukee, WI: 4%
• Seattle, WA: 3.6%

Metros with the Largest Decreases:

• Houston, TX: -16.2%
• West Palm Beach, FL: -13.4%
• Fort Lauderdale, FL: -11.5%
• Atlanta, GA: -10%
• Tampa, FL: -9.9%

Note: Pending sales increased in 13 metros.

New Listings

Metros with the Largest Increases:

• San Jose, CA: 39.9%
• Phoenix, AZ: 26.1%
• San Diego, CA: 23.2%
• Miami, FL: 20.9%
• Denver, CO: 17.7%

Metros with the Largest Decreases:

• Atlanta, GA: -7.9%
• Chicago, IL: -5.1%
• Newark, NJ: -3.2%
• Indianapolis, IN: -2.8%
• Minneapolis, MN: -2.1%

Regional Insights

Rising Markets

Anaheim, CA and Newark, NJ lead with the highest year-over-year increases in median sale prices, signaling strong demand in these areas. The substantial rise in new listings in places like San Jose, CA and Phoenix, AZ indicates a growing interest among sellers to capitalize on the current market conditions.

Cooling Markets

In contrast, metros like Austin, TX and Fort Worth, TX are experiencing declines in median sale prices, suggesting a cooling market. Similarly, significant drops in pending sales in Houston, TX and West Palm Beach, FL highlight a potential slowdown in buyer activity.

Mixed Signals

While some areas see an increase in new listings, others like Atlanta, GA and Chicago, IL are witnessing declines, which could affect local inventory and pricing dynamics. The varying trends across different metros reflect the diverse conditions influencing the U.S. housing market.

The Future Outlook for Housing Market

As mortgage rates potentially decline further over the summer, this could provide some much-needed relief for homebuyers facing record-high home prices. However, the balance between demand and supply will be crucial in determining whether home-price growth will soften or if prices will continue to rise. Homebuyers should stay informed about rate changes and market trends to make well-timed decisions.

In summary, while the U.S. housing market is currently marked by record-high home prices, declining mortgage rates offer a glimmer of hope for prospective buyers. The interplay between these factors will shape the affordability and accessibility of homes in the coming months.

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