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Boise Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

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Wondering what's happening with the current Boise housing market trends? Here's the deal: the Boise housing market is seeing a bit of a reset this summer. Home prices are staying pretty steady, but the number of homes for sale is going up. This means buyers have more choices, and they're being a little pickier!

I've been watching the real estate scene here in Boise for a while now, and it's definitely been a wild ride. We went from a crazy seller's market to something a bit more balanced. Let's dig into the details to see what's really going on.

Current Boise Housing Market Update:

Home Sales

Good news for the market overall, the number of homes being sold has increased.

  • According to recent data (We Know Boise), in Ada County, 855 homes were sold in July, which is a 17% increase compared to last year.
  • Canyon County saw even bigger growth, with 488 homes sold, a 21% jump from the same time last year.

This tells us that people are still buying, even with everything else going on.

Home Prices

Okay, let's talk about the money. While we aren't seeing huge price jumps, they are inching up slightly.

  • The average sold price in Ada County in July was $580,000, which is almost 2% higher than a year ago.
  • In Canyon County, prices rose to $439,900, a 3.5% increase compared to last year.

So, prices aren't crashing, but they're not skyrocketing either. It’s a more stable situation than we've seen in recent years.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

In general, no. As we just covered, home prices are stable. Some sources even point to minor gains when comparing this year to last.

Housing Supply

This is where things get interesting. The number of homes available for sale is on the rise. We're seeing a change in Housing Supply.

  • Ada County now has 2.94 months of supply.
  • Canyon County isn't far behind with 2.92 months of supply.

Now, what does this mean? Basically, if no new homes came on the market, it would take about three months to sell all the houses currently listed. This increase in inventory is giving buyers more options.

Is Boise a Seller's Housing Market?

This is the million-dollar question! Technically, anything under 4 to 5 months of supply is still considered a seller's market. However, the trend is moving towards a more balanced market. Buyers have more negotiating power now than they did a year or two ago. It's not a screaming deal for buyers, but it's a much better position than they were in.

Market Trends

Let's break down some other key indicators:

Indicator Current Value Change
Median List Price $549,900 Down 1.3%
Median Sold Price $544,710 Down 2.1%
Avg. Price per Square Foot $335 Up 6%
Total Home Sales 324 Up 58
Median Days on Market 9 Unchanged
Available Homes for Sale 2.43 Month Supply Up 0.18
30-Year Mortgage Rate 6.82% Down 0.10

Here’s a peek at what’s happening in the Treasure Valley:

  • Ada County: $580,000 (up 1.8%)
  • Eagle: $899,890 (up 4%)
  • Garden City: $511,950 (down 26.8%)
  • Kuna: $472,500 (up 5%)
  • Meridian: $565,000 (up 3.2%)
  • Star: $622,727 (up 13.2%)
  • Canyon County: $439,990 (up 3.5%)
  • Caldwell: $405,000 (up 6.6%)
  • Middleton: $529,950 (down 7%)
  • Nampa: $421,782 (up 0.01%)

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

Okay, this is a big one. Mortgage rates definitely play a huge role in what's happening.

Currently, U.S. weekly averages as of 07/31/2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.72%, and the 15-Year FRM is about 5.85%, according to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® by Freddie Mac. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage showed little movement, remaining within the same narrow range for the fourth consecutive week.

These rates are definitely higher than what we saw a couple of years ago, and that makes a difference. Even so, activity tends to pick up when rates dip, purchase applications rose 25% compared to this time last year suggesting that some buyers are on the sidelines.

This is a pretty stable scenario for those looking to get a mortgage, and various forecasts predict the 30-year FRM rate will end 2025 between 6.0 to 6.5 percent. Borrowers should find comfort in the stability of mortgage rates, which have only fluctuated within a narrow 15-basis point range since mid-April.

Looking Ahead

The Boise housing market is always changing. As summer ends, things usually slow down a bit. With more homes for sale and buyers being careful because of higher rates, the next few months will show us what's coming this fall. If the number of homes for sale keeps growing without more people wanting to buy, we might see prices go down a little and homes take longer to sell.

In Conclusion: The current Boise housing market trends point to a shift towards a more balanced market. Prices are relatively stable, but inventory is increasing, giving buyers more choices. Mortgage rates are still a factor, but some buyers are finding opportunities, especially with new construction.

Boise Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

Is the Boise housing market about to change? Well, here's the short answer: Experts predict a slight dip in home values in the near future, but nothing catastrophic. The current average home value in Boise City is $495,832, showing a modest increase of 0.4% over the past year. Homes are going into pending status in about 13 days. But what does the future really hold for Boise? Let's dig into what the experts are saying.

What Does the Data Say About Boise's Housing Prospects?

According to Zillow's latest forecast, the Boise housing market is expected to experience some adjustments over the next year. Here's a breakdown:

  • July 2025: Zillow predicts a decrease of 0.5% in home values
  • September 2025: The forecast indicates a further dip of 1.7%.
  • June 2025 to June 2026: Over the next year, the anticipated decline is around 2.2%.
Timeframe Boise Real Estate Change
July 2025 -0.5%
September 2025 -1.7%
June 2025 – June 2026 -2.2%

How Does Boise Compare to Other Idaho Cities?

It's always good to see how Boise stacks up against other areas in the state. Here’s what Zillow projects for a few other Idaho metros:

City July 2025 September 2025 June 2025 – June 2026
Coeur d'Alene -0.2% -0.6% 0.1%
Idaho Falls -0.6% -1.7% -1.3%
Twin Falls -0.3% -1.3% -0.2%
Pocatello -0.4% -1.1% 0.2%
Rexburg -0.2% -1.2% -0.3%
Lewiston -0.3% -1.0% -0.5%
Boise City -0.5% -1.7% -2.2%

As you can see, Boise is forecasted to have a steeper decline when compared with other regions of Idaho.

National Outlook: Brighter Days Ahead for Housing?

Looking beyond Idaho, what's the national picture? According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there’s reason for optimism. Here are some key predictions:

  • Existing Home Sales: Expected to increase by 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
  • New Home Sales: Projected to rise by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.
  • Median Home Prices: Forecasted to increase modestly by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
  • Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and drop to 6.1% in 2026.

These are all positive signs that the overall housing market is on the path to recovery. Now the question is when?

Will Boise Home Prices Crash?

Based on the available data, a major crash in the Boise housing market seems unlikely; it's more of a modest correction. I believe the slight dip is more of a readjustment after the significant gains we've seen in recent years, rather than something to panic over.

Looking Ahead to 2026

While we only have specific projections until June 2026, if national forecasts ring positive, here's my gut feeling for the Boise housing market forecast into 2026: Once those mortgage rates decline, it could cause the market to level out. It might even cause the price to increase slightly.

The Bottom Line

It looks like Boise is adjusting. It's not going to be a wild ride, and with the nation experiencing “brighter days”, so will the Boise housing market in the future!

1. Population Growth and Trends

The first crucial factor to consider when contemplating real estate investment is the population growth and trends in Boise. As of the latest data, Boise has experienced a significant surge in population, with a growth rate well above the national average. This influx of residents is indicative of a thriving city, making it an attractive prospect for real estate investment.

2. Economy and Jobs

Boise's robust economy and job market play a pivotal role in determining the city's real estate potential. The region has seen consistent economic growth, driven by diverse industries. The presence of stable employment opportunities is a positive sign for real estate investors, as a strong job market contributes to increased housing demand.

3. Livability and Other Factors

Investors should also assess the livability of the city, considering factors such as education, healthcare, and recreational amenities. Boise consistently ranks high in livability indices, boasting quality schools, healthcare facilities, and a plethora of outdoor activities. A city with a high livability score tends to attract long-term residents, ensuring sustained demand for housing.

4. Rental Property Market Size and Growth

For real estate investors, the size and growth of the rental property market are critical considerations. Boise's rental market has expanded in tandem with its population growth, providing ample opportunities for investors. The demand for rental properties is on the rise, creating a favorable environment for those looking to capitalize on rental income.

Boise's rental market has witnessed a substantial increase in size in direct correlation with the city's population growth. As more individuals migrate to Boise, the demand for housing, particularly in the rental sector, has surged. This expansion in the market size not only signifies a robust housing demand but also presents a wealth of opportunities for investors to tap into a growing pool of tenants.

The growth trajectory of Boise's rental property market is a testament to the city's economic vitality and attractiveness. The consistent influx of residents, coupled with a thriving job market, has contributed to a sustained demand for rental properties. Investors looking for markets with a positive growth outlook will find Boise's rental sector aligning seamlessly with their objectives.

One of the key drivers of this growth is the booming local economy. Boise has become a hub for various industries, attracting professionals and individuals seeking employment opportunities. As these individuals relocate to the city, the need for rental accommodations intensifies, creating a dynamic and competitive rental property market.

Moreover, the rising demand for rental properties in Boise is not solely driven by population growth. The city's appeal as a desirable place to live, work, and raise a family contributes to a steady influx of residents. The quality of life, outdoor recreational options, and community amenities make Boise an attractive destination, enhancing the demand for rental housing options.

For investors, this scenario creates a favorable environment to capitalize on rental income. With a growing market and increasing demand, rental properties in Boise present a lucrative opportunity for both short-term and long-term returns on investment. The potential for rental appreciation and a consistent stream of tenants make Boise a strategic choice for those looking to build a robust and diversified real estate portfolio.

5. Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

Several additional factors contribute to Boise's allure for real estate investors. These include favorable real estate policies, a well-established real estate infrastructure, and a proactive local government supporting sustainable development. Investors should also keep an eye on market trends and forecasts to make informed decisions.

Today’s Mortgage Rates – August 4, 2025: Rates Drop Nearly Across the Board

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Mortgage rates today, August 4, 2025, have fallen slightly compared to last week, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.69%, down 13 basis points (0.13%) from 6.82%. Refinancing rates have similarly seen declines, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropping to 6.89%. Both mortgage and refinance rates show moderate decreases, offering potential saving opportunities for buyers and homeowners looking to refinance. These subtle rate drops come amid a Fed policy pause, signaling a market cautiously optimistic about easing borrowing costs later this year.

Today's Mortgage Rates August 4, 2025: Rates Go Down Nearly Across the Board

Key Takeaways

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.69%, down 0.13% from last week.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 5.74%.
  • 5-year ARM mortgage rate fell to 7.12%.
  • 30-year fixed refinance rate decreased to 6.89%.
  • Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady for five meetings, signaling a wait-and-see approach.
  • Possible Fed interest rate cuts later this year could push mortgage rates lower.
  • Economic data shows slower GDP growth and persistent inflation, influencing Fed decisions and mortgage rates.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview: August 4, 2025

Let's look in detail at the mortgage and refinance rates today as reported by Zillow. The data highlight drops in most loan types, with some variability in government-backed loans.

Mortgage Loan Type Rate (Aug 4) Change from Last Week APR APR Change
30-Year Fixed (Conforming) 6.69% -0.13% 7.20% -0.08%
20-Year Fixed (Conforming) 6.34% -0.12% 6.84% -0.09%
15-Year Fixed (Conforming) 5.73% -0.15% 6.07% -0.11%
10-Year Fixed (Conforming) 5.94% +0.19% 6.34% +0.22%
7-Year ARM (Adjustable) 6.88% -0.35% 7.66% -0.21%
5-Year ARM 7.07% -0.48% 7.77% -0.14%
30-Year Fixed FHA 7.46% +0.27% 8.50% +0.26%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.21% -0.08% 6.44% -0.06%
15-Year Fixed FHA 5.75% +0.23% 6.72% +0.20%
15-Year Fixed VA 5.76% -0.07% 6.13% -0.04%

 

Refinance Rates: Lower Across Most Product Types

Refinancing offers a chance for homeowners to reduce monthly payments or shorten loan terms. On August 4, 2025, refi rates broadly dropped, reflecting a slightly easier borrowing environment.

Refinance Loan Type Rate (Aug 4) Change from Last Week
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.89% -0.06%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.66% -0.12%
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.52% -0.20%

What Factors Are Driving Mortgage Rate Changes Today?

Understanding why mortgage rates fluctuate helps borrowers and investors gauge the housing market and economy better. Here are the main drivers behind today's rates:

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy:

The Federal Reserve’s actions heavily influence long-term borrowing costs such as mortgages. After aggressive rate hikes from 2022 to mid-2023 to combat inflation, the Fed paused its hikes in 2025, holding the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% for five meetings straight. The pause reflects economic uncertainty—slowed GDP growth (~1.2% annualized in H1 2025), rising unemployment (4.5%), and stubborn core inflation (~2.7% PCE).

During this pause, mortgage rates have slightly declined from their 20-year highs near 7%. The market expects possible Fed rate cuts in late 2025, which would likely push mortgage rates closer to 6% by year-end. However, Fed officials remain divided, with some dissenting votes advocating for immediate cuts to support the economy.

Bond Yields:

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which fluctuates based on investor expectations about inflation and Fed policy. Currently, the 10-year yield sits around 4.34%, reflecting investor caution amid mixed economic signals.

Comparing Fixed vs. Adjustable Mortgage Rates

Homebuyers often face the choice between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Both have pros and cons depending on one's financial plans and market outlook.

  • Fixed-rate mortgages lock in a steady interest rate and monthly payments for the loan term, offering predictability. Today, the 30-year fixed rate averages 6.69%, slightly lower than last week.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) start with lower initial rates but adjust over time based on market indices. The 5-year ARM rate fell to 7.07%, down nearly half a percentage point week over week, making ARMs potentially attractive for short-term borrowers expecting to refinance or sell within a few years.

Example Calculation: How the Rate Drop Impacts Monthly Payments

Consider a $300,000 loan amount on a 30-year fixed mortgage:

Rate Monthly Payment (Principal + Interest)
6.82% (Last Week) $1,942
6.69% (Today) $1,919

Difference: $23 less per month due to 0.13% rate drop

By refinancing or locking in a mortgage now instead of last week, a borrower could save roughly $276 annually just on principal and interest payments.

State of Government-Backed Loans

Government-backed FHA and VA loans often serve first-time homebuyers or those with lower credit scores by offering lower down payment requirements.

  • The 30-year FHA fixed rate increased slightly to 7.46%, while VA loan rates fell to 6.21%.
  • The mixed movement indicates varied demand and risk perception in these government-backed programs—FHA rates rising slightly might reflect higher insurance costs or credit considerations, whereas VA loans are a bit cheaper this week.

The Federal Reserve’s Role: Deep Dive into 2024-2025 Monetary Policy

The Fed's policy actions remain the prime force shaping mortgage markets:

  • From 2021-2023, the Fed's bond buying kept mortgage rates ultra-low.
  • From March 2022 to July 2023, aggressive rate hikes lifted rates sharply.
  • In late 2024, the Fed started cutting rates, lowering the federal funds rate by 1 percentage point across three cuts.
  • In 2025, the Fed paused rate moves for over five meetings despite mixed economic signals.
  • Market expectations for additional rate cuts later in 2025 could mean mortgage rates drop further, though timing and magnitude remain uncertain.

This Fed-induced uncertainty, combined with inflation still above target, explains the mild dips in mortgage rates—borrowers benefit from slight relief but face a cautious outlook.

Mortgage Rate Trends and the Economy: Insight from Experts

From my experience following mortgage markets, even small interest rate moves can have outsized impacts on affordability and housing demand. The current mortgage rate dip in early August 2025 is encouraging compared to last year’s highs exceeding 7%, yet the bar remains high relative to historic lows near 3%.

Homebuyers currently must weigh if locking in rates at 6.69% fits their budget and timeline, especially since the housing market adjusts slower than bond yields or Fed moves. For homeowners refinancing, saving 10-20 basis points could lower monthly payments enough to justify upfront refinancing fees.

The Fed’s hesitance to cut rates immediately despite economic weakness highlights a tricky balancing act—too quick a cut could spark inflation again, while waits risk deepening economic slowdowns. Borrowers should keep an eye on the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting, poised to provide new guidance.

Mortgage Rates Today Summary

Mortgage rates as of August 4, 2025, have generally dipped modestly across most loan types and refinancing rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 6.69%, reflecting near-term relief after months of high borrowing costs. Though still elevated compared to historic norms, the drop occurred alongside a Fed interest rate pause and markets betting on future cuts.

Both homebuyers and refinance candidates can watch for upcoming Fed signals and evolving economic data that may tip rates even lower by late 2025 or early 2026. Awareness of exact rates by loan types—including government loans and ARM offers—helps borrowers choose options aligned with their financial goals.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

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5 Florida Housing Markets At Risk of a Major Price Decline or Crash

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If you've been anywhere near the Florida housing market, you know things have been wild for the last few years. Prices shot up faster than a rocket from Cape Canaveral! But lately, the tune is changing. According to the July 2025 Insights from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), while the national housing market is slowing its growth pace, five specific Florida housing markets have been flagged with a very high risk of experiencing a major price decline. These aren't just minor dips; the data suggests a significant vulnerability in Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port, St. Petersburg, and West Palm Beach.

5 Florida Housing Markets At Risk of a Major Price Decline or Crash

For a long time, Florida felt like the place everyone wanted to be. People were moving here in droves, fueling incredible demand for homes. Whether it was folks looking for sunshine and retirement, or remote workers fleeing expensive northern cities, the influx was massive. This led to bidding wars, homes selling for well over asking price, and property values climbing at an unsustainable rate.

But real estate markets, just like everything else, go through cycles. What goes up this fast often faces pressure to come down, or at least cool off significantly. Based on the  data from Cotality, that rapid run-up in Florida seems to be entering a correction phase.

Nationally, home price growth has definitely pumped the brakes. The report highlights that the year-over-year price growth across the U.S. slowed to 2.0% in April 2025. That's a big drop from nearly 3% just two months prior, and it's the slowest pace since Spring 2012! Single-family detached homes are still seeing some growth (around 2.46% annually), but single-family attached homes (think condos and townhouses) actually posted their first annual decline since 2012, dropping by 0.08%.

While some parts of the country, particularly more affordable areas in the Northeast and Midwest, are still seeing solid price gains, states that saw massive booms are now starting to show cracks. The report specifically names Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. as states reporting negative home price growth in April 2025. Florida's statewide average appreciation dipped to -0.8%.

Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality's Chief Economist, points out that while the number of markets seeing declines hasn't exploded nationwide (only about 14 of the top 100 largest markets reported annual declines, up slightly from 12), the majority of these are concentrated in just two states: Florida and Texas. This tells me it's not just a random scattering of price drops; there are specific, regional factors at play in these boom states.

And guess what? Florida's median sales price, which had soared, actually dipped below the national median ($395,000) to $390,000 in April 2025. This caused Florida to drop out of the top 20 most expensive markets list. That's a significant shift and tells us the market is clearly reacting to pressures.

Why Florida is Feeling the Heat (or lack thereof)

I've watched the Florida market closely for years. It's always had unique dynamics – tied to tourism, seasonal residents, retirement flows, and more recently, the remote work trend. The speed of the price increases during the peak of the boom felt unsustainable to many of us who understand market cycles. When prices go up 30%, 40%, or even more in just a couple of years in many areas, you build in a significant amount of risk if the underlying demand drivers change or affordability gets stretched too thin.

Here's what I believe is contributing to Florida feeling this correction more acutely than many other places right now:

  1. Affordability Breaking Point: Even though Florida's median price dipped, remember that prices are still drastically higher than they were pre-pandemic. Combined with higher interest rates on mortgages (which make monthly payments much larger even if the price is the same), many potential buyers are simply priced out. The data shows that nationally, an income of $87,800 is required to afford the median-priced home. In Florida, even at $390,000, that income requirement is likely similar or higher in many desirable areas.
  2. Increased Inventory: As the market slows, homes sit longer. This means more houses are available for buyers to choose from – what we call increased inventory. When there are fewer buyers chasing more homes, sellers lose leverage and often have to lower their prices or offer concessions.
  3. Cooling Migration/Demand: While people are still moving to Florida, the frantic pace of the last few years seems to have slowed somewhat. The remote work trend might be stabilizing, and the sheer cost of living, including rapidly rising property taxes and especially skyrocketing homeowner's insurance costs, is making some people reconsider or look elsewhere. Insurance costs, in particular, are a major factor unique to Florida that adds a significant burden to homeownership.
  4. Investor Pullback: A significant portion of the Florida market involves investors, whether buying rental properties, flips, or second homes. Higher interest rates and the prospect of prices falling make these investments less attractive, potentially reducing a key source of demand.

These factors create a challenging environment, leading to the statewide negative growth seen in April 2025. But the risk isn't uniform across the state. This brings us to the markets Cotality has specifically flagged.

The Florida Housing Markets Flashing Major Price Decline Warnings

What's particularly striking about the Cotality report is their “Markets to Watch” list. Using their analysis of the top 100 largest CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas, which are basically major metro areas or combinations of counties), they've identified the five markets with the highest risk of price decline. And every single one of them is in Florida.

Here are the five markets Cotality flagged as having a very high risk of price decline, in order of risk level according to their data:

Risk Rank Market Name State
1. Cape Coral, FL Florida
2. Lakeland, FL Florida
3. North Port, FL Florida
4. St. Petersburg, FL Florida
5. West Palm Beach, FL Florida

Let's take a closer look at what the data tells us about these specific areas and why they might be considered high risk.

1. Cape Coral, FL

This market takes the top spot on the risk list, and it's not hard to see why when you look at the other data points. Cape Coral also appears prominently on Cotality's list of “Coolest Markets,” showing a year-over-year price decline of -6.5% in April 2025 based on their top 10 list (though the text mentions a -7% decline). The report specifically notes that prices in Cape Coral are back down to levels seen in the spring of 2022.

Looking at the price trend chart provided by Cotality, the line for Cape Coral shows a steep climb through 2021 and early 2022, peaking around mid-2022 near the $400k mark. Since then, it's shown a noticeable downward trend, fluctuating but consistently lower than its peak. By April 2025, it's hovering around the mid-$300k range.

From my perspective, Cape Coral saw explosive growth fueled by people seeking relative affordability compared to other Florida coastal areas, coupled with migration trends. This kind of rapid appreciation is often the most vulnerable when the market shifts. Add to that potential impacts from things like hurricane damage recovery (depending on the specific timing relative to the data) and soaring insurance, and you have a recipe for price pressure.

2. Lakeland, FL

Lakeland, located roughly between Tampa and Orlando in Central Florida, comes in as the second-highest risk market. The price trend line for Lakeland in the chart shows a steady, less volatile climb than some coastal areas, peaking later, around early 2024, just below the $400k mark. Since then, its line has shown a clear downward slope heading into April 2025, though it's still significantly higher than its starting point in 2021.

Lakeland also benefited greatly from the migration trend, attracting buyers looking for more affordable options within commuting distance (or remote working distance) of major hubs. It's a different profile than the coastal markets, less reliant on seasonal swings or beach appeal, but perhaps more susceptible to shifts in the general Florida economy and affordability constraints for typical homebuyers. A cooling in overall buyer demand hitting a market that saw strong, steady growth makes sense as a high-risk scenario.

3. North Port, FL

Another Southwest Florida market, North Port, ranks third for price decline risk. Like Cape Coral, North Port also appears on the “Coolest Markets” list with a -4.3% year-over-year decline in April 2025.

The price trend line for North Port in the chart shows one of the steepest ascents, particularly through 2021 and 2022, hitting a peak near the $480k mark in early 2023. It then experienced a sharp decline through mid-2023 before stabilizing and even showing a slight recovery attempt, but it still finished April 2025 well off its peak, around the $420k range.

North Port, encompassing areas like Port Charlotte and Venice, experienced tremendous demand and price surges. It's a popular spot for retirees and those seeking a slightly lower price point than Sarasota. Markets that surge this fast and then show volatility, as North Port's chart does, indicate significant price discovery is happening – sellers are having to figure out where the floor is as demand wanes. The fact that it's still considered very high risk despite some stabilization suggests ongoing headwinds.

4. St. Petersburg, FL

Moving over to the Gulf Coast across from Tampa, St. Petersburg is flagged as the fourth highest risk market. The price trend line for St. Petersburg shows a strong, consistent upward trajectory through late 2023, peaking just shy of $450k. Unlike Cape Coral or North Port, its decline appears more gradual and less steep, though still noticeable, settling around the low $400k range by April 2025.

St. Pete has been incredibly popular, transforming significantly over the past decade. Its appeal lies in its vibrant downtown, cultural scene, and proximity to beaches. While it might have a more diverse economy than some of the other flagged markets, it also saw substantial price increases, pushing affordability limits for many. Being a larger metro area, it might be more sensitive to employment trends and shifts in the buyer pool that flocked there during the boom. The risk here could stem from prices having simply gotten too high relative to local incomes and the broader market slowdown finally catching up.

5. West Palm Beach, FL

Rounding out the list at number five is West Palm Beach, on Florida's Atlantic Coast. The price trend line for West Palm Beach is perhaps the most volatile of the five, showing sharp increases, dips, a strong recovery into 2024 (peaking near $480k), and then a noticeable decline into April 2025, finishing near the $420k mark. This kind of up-and-down movement can indicate a market trying to find stable ground.

Palm Beach County is known for being relatively expensive, but West Palm Beach proper and surrounding areas saw increased interest from buyers seeking alternatives to even pricier locations further south in Broward and Miami-Dade. Like St. Pete, its appeal is broad, but the price surge was significant. The volatility in its price chart suggests a market where buyers and sellers have very different ideas about value right now, increasing the likelihood of prices having to adjust downward to meet the current reality of reduced demand and higher costs of ownership (mortgage, insurance, taxes).

Connecting the Dots: Why THESE Florida Markets?

While the Cotality report flags these five specifically, it doesn't detail why each one made the list beyond the data showing their price trends and risk factors. But based on my understanding of the Florida market and general real estate principles, it makes sense that areas which experienced the most rapid, perhaps speculative, price appreciation are now the most vulnerable.

Think of it like stretching a rubber band. The further you stretch it, the more force is pulling it back. These markets likely saw that rubber band stretched further than others. Factors like:

  • An exceptionally high influx of out-of-state buyers or investors.
  • Prices reaching levels that are far beyond what typical local wages can support.
  • Increased inventory hitting the market as demand cools.
  • Unique local pressures, such as insurance costs in coastal areas, becoming prohibitive.

These combined factors create a situation where sellers who need to sell are forced to lower prices significantly to find a buyer, dragging down the overall market value in that area.

It's important to remember that a “very high risk” of price decline doesn't guarantee a crash, but it certainly means conditions are ripe for prices to fall noticeably from their peaks. It indicates significant headwinds for price stability in these specific locations.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you are a buyer, seller, or homeowner in one of these five markets (or even just in Florida), this data is crucial.

  • For Buyers: This could present opportunities, but caution is key. Don't assume prices will simply drop to pre-pandemic levels overnight. Do your homework on specific neighborhoods, understand local inventory, and factor in the total cost of ownership (including those high insurance premiums!). Being patient and negotiating is likely smart strategy.
  • For Sellers: If you're in one of these high-risk markets, you absolutely must price your home correctly from the start based on current market conditions, not based on what your neighbor's house sold for a year or two ago. Be prepared for fewer offers, longer time on the market, and potentially needing to negotiate on price or offer concessions. The days of putting a sign in the yard and picking among multiple cash offers seem to be firmly in the rearview mirror in these areas.
  • For Homeowners (not selling): This data highlights a potential decrease in your home's market value from its peak. This is often called a “paper loss” if you don't plan to sell, but it's still something to be aware of, especially if you have a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC tied to your home's value. It also reinforces the point about needing to budget for rising expenses like insurance and taxes, which can make staying in your home more expensive even if its market value softens.

It's worth noting that Cotality's national forecast for the year ahead (April 2025 – April 2026) actually projects a 4.3% increase in home prices nationally. This might seem contradictory to the Florida risk, but it reinforces the idea that real estate is incredibly local. The national average is boosted by markets that didn't see the same kind of extreme run-up as Florida, or where supply/demand dynamics are different. These five Florida markets are outliers facing unique challenges.

Dr. Hepp's comment about potentially improved optimism nationally due to factors like tariffs, recession fears lessening, and more supply is a positive sign overall, but it doesn't erase the specific vulnerabilities created by the rapid boom-and-cool cycle happening in parts of Florida.

Looking Ahead

The path forward for these five Florida markets will depend on a mix of factors. Will migration continue at a pace that absorbs the available inventory? Will insurance costs stabilize or continue to rise? What happens with interest rates? Will local job markets remain strong?

My personal take is that a period of price correction, or at least stagnation, is likely necessary and even healthy for markets that appreciated so dramatically. It helps bring prices back closer to alignment with what local residents can afford over the long term. The key is whether these corrections are gradual adjustments or more rapid declines. Cotality flagging these markets as “very high risk” suggests they lean towards the latter possibility.

Keeping an eye on future data releases from sources like Cotality will be essential to see how these markets perform in the coming months. For now, the warning flags are up, pointing squarely at Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port, St. Petersburg, and West Palm Beach as areas facing significant headwinds in the Florida housing market.

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Will Mortgage Rates Go Down Below 6% in 2025?

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Are you dreaming of buying a home or considering refinancing, but worried about those mortgage rates? You're probably wondering, will mortgage rates go down below 6% in 2025? Based on current trends and expert predictions, the short answer is probably not. While many of us are hoping for a significant drop, the consensus leans towards rates staying in the mid-6% range throughout the year. Let's dive into the reasons why and what it means for you.

Will Mortgage Rates Go Down Below 6% in 2025? An In-Depth Analysis

Understanding Today's Mortgage Rate Reality

As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.72%. That's according to sources like Bankrate and Freddie Mac. NerdWallet even reported slightly higher figures. Sure, this is way up from the ridiculously low rates we saw in 2021 (remember that 2.65%?), but it's still below the historical average of 7.71% since 1971. So, while it might feel high, it's important to keep things in perspective. Rates have been fluctuating within this 6-7% range all year.

Graph Showing Mortgage Rate Trends

What the Experts Are Saying: Forecasts for 2025 and Beyond

To get a better idea of where things are headed, I decided to check out what the experts are predicting. Here's a snapshot of some key forecasts:

  • National Association of Realtors (NAR): They're anticipating an average of 6.4% by the end of 2025 and a further dip to 6.1% in 2026. Their chief economist, Lawrence Yun, doesn't see rates going back to the 4% or 5% range anytime soon due to the national debt.
  • Realtor.com: They're also projecting a 6.4% rate by the end of 2025.
  • Fannie Mae: Their economic team predicts 6.5% for the end of 2025, with a decrease to 6.1% in 2026.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): They're a bit more conservative, expecting rates to stay around 6.8% for a while before settling in the 6.4%-6.6% range and ending the year at 6.7%.
  • Morgan Stanley: They foresee rates potentially reaching 6.25% by 2026.

As you can see, the experts generally agree that mortgage rates aren't likely to plummet below 6% in 2025. Most forecasts hover in the mid-6% area.

Mortgage Rates Forecast 2025

Key Factors Driving Mortgage Rates

So, what's causing these rates to stay where they are? A few major factors are at play:

  • Federal Reserve Policy: This is a big one! The Fed's decisions about interest rates have a huge impact on mortgage rates. They raised rates aggressively to combat inflation.
  • Inflation: Even though inflation has cooled down a bit, it's still above the Fed's target of 2%. This makes it harder for them to cut rates significantly.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy can actually push rates higher, as investors demand better returns on their investments.
  • Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates often follow the 10-year Treasury yield.
  • Global and Domestic Policies: Unexpected global events and policies can also create uncertainty and influence rates.

A Look Back: Mortgage Rate History

To really understand where we are, it's helpful to look back at mortgage rate history:

Time Period Average Rate
1971–2025 (Average) 7.71%
January 2021 2.65%
2022 5.34%
2023 6.81%
2024 6.85%
July 2025 6.72%

As you can see, we've had quite a ride! The super-low rates of the early 2020s were an anomaly. The current rates, while higher than recent years, aren't out of line with historical averages.

How Mortgage Rates Affect the Housing Market

Mortgage rates have a huge effect on the overall housing market:

  • Affordability: Higher rates mean bigger monthly payments, making it harder for people to afford homes. Even a small difference in rate can add up to hundreds of dollars per month.
  • Demand: When rates are high, fewer people are willing to buy.
  • Supply: Some homeowners are locked into low rates. They're hesitant to sell and give up those amazing rates.
  • Home Prices: Higher rates can put downward pressure on home prices.

My Thoughts and Personal Experiences

I've been following the housing market closely for years, and I've seen firsthand how sensitive it is to changes in mortgage rates. When rates jumped in 2022 and 2023, it definitely cooled things down. I know many people who put their home-buying plans on hold.

In my opinion, the current market is a bit of a mixed bag. While rates are higher than we'd like, there are still opportunities for both buyers and sellers. The key is to be realistic about your budget and expectations. One of my family members had to postpone their plans a few years. But they are finally now able to afford a place after a few promotions and saving more money.

As for the future, I think we're unlikely to see a dramatic decline in rates anytime soon. The Fed is likely to be cautious about cutting rates too quickly. I would keep my expectations realistic.

In Conclusion: Planning for the Road Ahead

So, will mortgage rates go down below 6% in 2025? It's unlikely. The evidence points towards rates staying in the mid-6% range. It never hurts to be prepared and hope for the best. I believe it's more important to get ready for rates to stay elevated.

That being said, the housing market is adapting. There are still opportunities for those who are prepared. Do you homework. Seek professional advice. Make smart financial decisions.

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Charlotte Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

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Thinking of buying or selling a home in the Queen City? You're probably wondering about the current Charlotte housing market trends. The quick answer? While things are definitely shifting, the Charlotte housing market is showing signs of stabilization with increasing inventory and moderately rising prices. Let's dive into the details.

Charlotte Housing Market Trends: What's Happening Now?

Home Sales

Let's start with home sales. Looking at the numbers, we can see that closed sales in Charlotte are up. According to the latest data from the Canopy Realtor® Association, in June 2025, there were 3,378 closed sales, compared to 3,122 in June 2024. That's an 8.2% increase! Year-to-date, we've seen 17,316 closed sales through June 2025, compared to 16,752 in the same period last year – a 3.4% jump. This suggests that people are still buying homes in Charlotte, even with higher mortgage rates.

Here is the tabular form of the data for easy consumption:

Category June 2024 June 2025 Percent Change Year-to-Date 2024 Year-to-Date 2025 Percent Change
Closed Sales 3,122 3,378 +8.2% 16,752 17,316 +3.4%
New Listings 4,279 4,371 +2.2% 23,392 25,988 +11.1%
Pending Sales 3,159 3,330 +5.4% 18,393 19,068 +3.7%

Home Prices

Okay, let's talk about the big one: home prices. The median sales price in Charlotte for June 2025 was $435,000, up from $425,000 in June 2024. That's a modest 2.4% increase. The average sales price also saw a similar bump, going from $541,370 to $556,510 (a 2.8% increase). Year-to-date, the median sales price is $415,000 in 2025 compared to $405,000 in 2024, showing a 2.5% rise.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Charlotte?

While we saw some price corrections in the recent past, the latest data doesn't suggest prices are dropping currently. Instead, they're moderately rising. This could be due to a number of factors, including continued demand and a slightly improved economy. Keep in mind that the Charlotte region is still attractive, and people continue to move here.

Housing Supply

One of the biggest changes we're seeing is in the housing supply. The inventory of homes for sale has jumped up significantly. In June 2024, there were 6,452 homes on the market. Fast forward to June 2025, and we're looking at 8,967 homes. That's a whopping 39% increase!

This increase in inventory gives buyers more options and can ease some of the pressure in the market.

Here are the trends on inventory:

Category June 2024 June 2025 Percent Change
Inventory of Homes 6,452 8,967 +39.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.3 3.1 +34.8%

Is Charlotte a Buyer's Housing Market?

For a while, Charlotte was firmly in seller's market territory. However, with the increase in inventory, we're leaning towards a more balanced market. The months' supply of inventory is a good indicator of this. It represents how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current sales pace. In June 2024, there was only a 2.3-month supply. By June 2025, that had increased to 3.1 months, a 34.8% jump!

A balanced market typically has a 4-6 month supply. So, while we're not quite there yet, we're moving in that direction. This means buyers have a bit more leverage than they did a year ago.

Market Trends

A couple of other trends are worth noting. First, homes are staying on the market longer. The days on market until sale have increased from 29 days in June 2024 to 40 days in June 2025 – a 37.9% increase. Similarly, the cumulative days on market until sale have gone up from 32 to 43 days (a 34.4% increase). This isn't necessarily a bad thing; it just means buyers are taking their time and being more selective.

Second, the percent of original list price received has decreased slightly. Sellers are getting closer to 96.8% of their original asking price in June 2025 compared to 97.9% in June 2024. This suggests buyers have a little more room to negotiate.

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

There's no getting around it: high mortgage rates are impacting the market. Currently, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.72%, and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is about 5.85% (as of 07/31/2025). This is according to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® by Freddie Mac. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been relatively stable lately.

These higher rates make buying a home more expensive, which can slow down demand. However, it's important to remember that mortgage rates are still historically low. While higher than recent years, they're nowhere near the double-digit rates we saw in the 1980s.

Freddie Mac forecasts that 30-year FRM rate will end 2025 between 6.0 to 6.5 percent. This stability should give both buyers and sellers some comfort and predictability as they navigate the market.

Overall, what does this all mean?

In my opinion, the Charlotte housing market is undergoing a correction and moving towards a more balanced state. We're seeing more inventory, slightly rising prices, and homes staying on the market longer. Higher mortgage rates are playing a role, but the Charlotte region remains attractive.

Table: Key Charlotte Housing Market Metrics

Metric June 2024 June 2025 Change
Median Sales Price $425,000 $435,000 +2.4%
Average Sales Price $541,370 $556,510 +2.8%
New Listings 4,279 4,371 +2.2%
Closed Sales 3,122 3,378 +8.2%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 6,452 8,967 +39.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.3 3.1 +34.8%
Days on Market Until Sale 29 40 +37.9%
Percent of Original List Price Received 97.9% 96.8% -1.1%

Charlotte Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026: Will Prices Drop or Is a Crash Coming?

If you're watching the Charlotte housing market, you're probably wondering what the future holds. The short answer? While we might see some slight dips, a major crash isn't predicted. Let’s dive into what the experts are saying and what it means for you. Currently, the average home value in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia area is around $390,787, which has decreased by about 0.7% over the past year. This slight dip isn't a cause for alarm, but it does signal a shift in the market.

The Forecast: A Closer Look

According to Zillow's latest forecast, here's what we can expect for the Charlotte real estate market in the coming months:

Timeframe Expected Home Value Change
July 31, 2025 -0.3%
September 30, 2025 -1.0%
June 30, 2026 (1-Year) -0.1%

This suggests that home values may see a mild decrease in the short term, but things should stabilize within the next year. It’s more of a gentle slide rather than a steep drop.

How Does Charlotte Compare to Other North Carolina Cities?

It's important to see how Charlotte stacks up against other areas in North Carolina. Here's a quick comparison:

City Forecasted Change by Sept 2025 Forecasted Change by June 2026
Goldsboro -2.5% -4.1%
Shelby -1.8% -2.3%
Rockingham -0.4% -2.1%
Forest City -1.3% -1.7%
Raleigh -1.6% -1.4%
Marion -1.6% -1.4%
Durham -1.4% -0.8%
Roanoke Rapids 0.1% -0.8%
Asheville -1.4% -0.7%
Greensboro -0.8% -0.6%
Charlotte -1.0% -0.1%
Lumberton -0.9% -0.1%
Winston-Salem -0.7% 0%
Henderson -0.4% 0%

As you can see, while some cities are expected to see more significant declines, Charlotte's housing market forecast is comparatively stable, with only minor adjustments predicted.

What About the National Outlook?

Nationally, things are looking up, according to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR). He anticipates:

  • Existing home sales to increase by 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
  • New home sales to rise by 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
  • Median home prices to increase modestly by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
  • Mortgage rates averaging 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dropping to 6.1% in 2026.

These factors should support a healthy housing market across the country, including in Charlotte.

So, Will Home Prices Drop Significantly or Crash in Charlotte?

Based on current forecasts, a significant drop or crash seems unlikely. The Charlotte real estate market is expected to experience slight corrections, but overall, it should remain relatively stable. The factors driving this stability include:

  • Continued population growth in the Charlotte area
  • A relatively strong local economy
  • Low inventory helping to prop up prices

My Take and Possible Forecast for 2026

Personally, I believe that the Charlotte area is fairly resilient. While we might see a few more fluctuations in the short-term, the underlying factors supporting the housing market here are strong. For 2026, I think we will see a modest growth of 1-2% in home values, especially if interest rates start to come down. Inventory still needs to adjust.

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Boston Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

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The current Boston housing market trends are definitely something to talk about, especially if you're thinking about buying or selling a home in the area. Here's the deal: If you're looking at single-family homes, be prepared for some sticker shock. The median price just hit over $1 million for the first time ever! Condos, on the other hand, are holding pretty steady. Let's dive into the specifics to give you a clear picture.

Current Boston Housing Market Trends: What's Happening Right Now?

Home Sales

Okay, so let's break down what's been happening with home sales. Overall, sales are up compared to last year and the previous month. People are still buying, even with those high prices!

  • Single-Family Homes: According to the Greater Boston Association of Realtors® (GBAR), in June, 1,292 homes were sold. That's a 19.6% increase from May and a 5.8% bump from June of last year.
  • Condos: 986 condos found new owners, which is a 2.8% rise from May and a 1.8% increase from June 2024.

So, what does this tell us? People are still interested in buying, but perhaps with varying preferences for property types.

Home Prices

This is where things get interesting, especially for single-family homes. Buckle up!

  • Single-Family Homes: The median price hit $1,003,250. That's a 2.4% increase from May's $980,000 and a 4.5% jump from last June's $960,000.
  • Condos: The median price landed at $725,000. Interestingly, that's down 3.3% from both May and June of the previous year (which were both at $750,000).

I think we can see a distinct trend here: single-family homes are skyrocketing, while condos are being more stable. If you're thinking of buying, you should consider that.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Boston?

Not exactly, especially not for single-family homes. While some folks might hope for a price drop, the data doesn't really show that happening right now. Condo prices have experienced a small dip. According to Mark Triglione, President of the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS, folks have seen inventory rise in some markets, leading buyers to believe they may see some relief on prices, but the data and buying behavior continues to defy that notion.

Housing Supply

Supply is super important because it influences prices. When there are more homes available, buyers have more choices, and prices tend to stabilize or even go down. Let's see what's happening in Boston.

  • Single-Family Homes: 1,528 new single-family homes hit the market. That's down 13.4% from May but up 8.9% from June of last year.
  • Condos: 1,437 new condos became available. That's a decrease of 8.1% from May, but a pretty significant increase of 19.4% compared to last June.

The supply of single-family homes is struggling to keep pace with demand, which is likely contributing to those high prices.

Is Bostona Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Generally, a “seller's market” means there are more buyers than homes available, giving sellers the upper hand. A “buyer's market” is the opposite. Based on the data, Boston is more of a seller's market for single-family homes. The demand is high, the supply is struggling to keep up, and prices are rising. Condos seem to be more balanced.

One way to tell is how long homes stay on the market:

  • Single-Family Homes: The median number of days on the market is 19, up 18.8% from May and 11.8% from June 2024.
  • Condos: The median number of days on the market is 23, increasing 9.5% from May and 15% from June 2024.

Market Trends

So, what are some overall trends we can see in the Boston housing market?

  • High Demand for Single-Family Homes: The desire to own a single-family home in Boston is still strong, even with those high prices.
  • Condo Stability: Condo prices are more stable, which could make them an attractive option for some buyers.
  • Slightly Increasing Inventory: While still tight, there's been a small increase in the number of homes for sale compared to last year.
  • Homes Selling Quickly: When priced right, homes are still flying off the market, especially single-family homes.

I'm seeing that location, location, location still holds true. Certain neighborhoods will always be in high demand, which keeps the pressure on prices.

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

Let's not forget about mortgage rates. They play a huge role in the housing market. Right now, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.72%, and the 15-year is about 5.85% (as of 07/31/2025).

These rates are high compared to recent years, which definitely impacts affordability. It means buyers have to pay more each month, even if the price of the home stays the same. Despite these high rates, the Boston housing market has remained resilient. Some economists predict these rates may fall to around 6.0% – 6.5% by the end of 2025, but who really knows?

Mortgage Rate Comparison (as of 07/31/2025)

Mortgage Type Interest Rate
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.72%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.85%

These rates have largely stayed in this range since mid-April, which gives borrowers some stability to work with. Continued economic growth, along with moderating home prices and rising inventory, should be a good sign for buyers and sellers alike.

In Conclusion

The current Boston housing market trends show a tale of two cities (sort of!). Single-family homes are experiencing record-high prices and high demand, while the condo market is a bit more stable. High mortgage rates are a factor, but haven't stopped the market completely. As someone who has lived in the Boston area for 20 years and watched how the market has changed, I can tell you that Boston real estate has always been competitive.

Boston Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026: Will Prices Drop?

You're probably wondering what's going to happen with home prices. So, what's the scoop on the Boston housing market forecast? According to Zillow’s latest projections, the Boston housing market isn't headed for a crash, but a slight cooling is expected. Let's dive into what these forecasts actually mean for you.

Is Boston's Housing Market Cooling Down?

The Boston-Cambridge-Newton area has seen a 2.3% increase in home values over the past year, with an average home value of $733,270. Homes are moving quickly, typically going pending in around 7 days. However, recent forecasts suggest a bit of a shift. Here's a breakdown of what analysts predict:

  • July 2025: Zillow forecasts a 0.4% decrease in home values for the Boston metro area.
  • September 2025: The forecast anticipates a further dip of 1.3%.
  • Year-End (June 2026): Looking at a one-year projection, from June 2025 to June 2026, the prediction is a 1.6% decrease.

What Does This Mean for Homeowners and Buyers?

While these numbers might seem small, they suggest a slight softening in the market. For homeowners, it means that the rapid price growth we've seen in recent years might be slowing down. It's still a solid market, but pricing your home competitively will be crucial.

For buyers, this could be welcome news. A slight dip in prices could offer more opportunities and potentially ease some of the pressure in the market. Keep a close eye on interest rates, as they play a huge role in affordability.

Across Massachusetts: How Does Boston Compare?

Let's see how Boston's forecast stacks up against other areas in Massachusetts:

Region July 2025 Change September 2025 Change June 2026 Change
Boston, MA -0.4% -1.3% -1.6%
Springfield, MA -0.3% -1.0% -0.6%
Worcester, MA -0.3% -1.0% 0.1%
Pittsfield, MA -0.1% -0.8% 0.9%
Vineyard Haven, MA -0.4% -0.9% 1.1%
Barnstable Town, MA -0.3% -0.7% 1.4%

As you can see, most areas in Massachusetts are expected to see at least a short term decline, but some like Barnstable Town are expected to actually see growth in the longer one year timeframe.

National Trends and Expert Opinions

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), believes things are looking up nationally. He forecasts:

  • Existing home sales to rise by 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
  • New home sales to increase by 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
  • Median home prices to continue increasing modestly, with a projected rise of 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
  • Mortgage rates to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dip to 6.1% in 2026.

A Possible Boston Housing Market Forecast for 2026 and Beyond

Based on these trends, I believe the Boston real estate market will likely stabilize after the slight dip predicted for 2025. The demand for housing in Boston remains strong due to its universities, healthcare, and job market. If mortgage rates continue to fall as predicted by experts, the market may shift once again.

Will the Boston Housing Market Crash?

No, a crash is unlikely. A slight price decrease is not the same as a collapse. Several factors support Boston's housing market: a strong local economy, limited housing supply, and continued demand. While there might be some bumps in the road, a full-blown crash is not on the horizon.

I've seen markets go up and down over the years. Based on my experience I believe taking a long-term approach to real estate ownership is the best way to think about it. Over time real estate values tend to increase, even when there are times when we wonder if it's all going to come crashing down.

Should You Invest in the Boston Real Estate Market?

Boston, a city steeped in history, academic prestige, and a booming job market, has long been a magnet for residents and investors alike. But with a reputation for high property values, is the Boston real estate market the right fit for you? Let's delve into the pros and cons to help you make an informed decision.

Pros: A Perfect Storm for Investors

  • Steady Rental Demand: Fueled by a large student population, young professionals, and a growing population, Boston boasts a remarkably strong rental market. This translates to consistent income for investors, making it a great option for those seeking reliable cash flow. Boston's population grew 9.4% from 2010 to 2020, reaching 675,647 people, making it the 24th largest city in the United States. Boston's population is projected to grow to 710,000–724,000 by 2030, and 801,000 by 2050. More than a third of this growth is expected to occur in the South End, Downtown, East Boston, Dorchester, and the Seaport. This rising population, coupled with a limited supply of housing units, creates a situation where rental demand is likely to stay strong, benefitting investors.
  • Appreciation Potential: Historically, Boston has seen significant property value appreciation. This trend, coupled with a limited supply of housing units, suggests that investments here have the potential for high returns in the long run.
  • Rock-Solid Economy: Boston's economy has grown significantly since 2001, with the Greater Boston metro area's GDP increasing from $284.1 billion in 2001 to $504.1 billion in 2022. In 2020, per capita personal income in Metro Boston was $89,568, which is 24% higher than 2010 and 34% higher than 2000. This economic strength translates to a stable job market, which fuels rental demand and property value appreciation. With a diversified economy spanning world-renowned universities, healthcare institutions, a thriving tech sector, and a financial hub, Boston is well-positioned to weather economic downturns, minimizing risk for investors.
  • Future-Proof Growth: It's important to note that while Boston's population has seen a slight decline since the 2020 census, reaching 629,842 in 2024, this is projected to be a temporary dip. Long-term projections still suggest continued population growth, fueled by the city's strong job market and attractive qualities for young professionals and families. As the city grows, the demand for housing is likely to rise, further bolstering property values and rental rates.
  • Favorable Financing: Boston's robust financial sector translates to a wide range of lenders and banks competing for your business. This competition translates into favorable loan terms and rates for qualified investors. Additionally, many lenders in Boston specialize in real estate financing, and have a deep understanding of the local market. This expertise can be invaluable for investors, as lenders can provide guidance on property selection, financing options, and current market trends. Having access to a pool of lenders with experience in the Boston real estate market allows investors to shop around and secure the most competitive financing package for their investment property.

Cons: Challenges to Consider

  • High Entry Point: Let's be honest, Boston isn't cheap. The high cost of living translates to a high barrier to entry for real estate investors. A sizable down payment is often required, and investors need to be prepared for potentially competitive bidding situations.
  • Management Considerations: Managing a rental property can be time-consuming, especially for those unfamiliar with the process. Investors should factor in property management fees or be prepared to manage the property themselves.
  • Market Fluctuations: While historically stable, no real estate market is immune to fluctuations. Investors should have a long-term outlook and be prepared to weather any potential dips in the market.

Beyond the Numbers: Finding the Right Fit

While the data paints a promising picture, there's more to consider than just market trends. Here are some additional factors to weigh:

  • Investment Goals: Are you seeking steady rental income or long-term appreciation? Understanding your goals will help you choose the right property type and investment strategy.
  • Risk Tolerance: Real estate, like any investment, carries inherent risks. Be honest with yourself about your comfort level with market fluctuations and potential vacancies.
  • Location, Location, Location: Boston offers a diverse range of neighborhoods, each with its own unique character and market dynamics. Research different areas to find one that aligns with your investment goals and budget.

Investing in Boston Real Estate: The Final Verdict

Boston's real estate market presents a compelling opportunity for investors with a long-term perspective and a healthy risk tolerance. The strong rental market, potential for appreciation, and diversified economy make it a solid choice for those seeking a stable investment. However, the high entry cost and management considerations should be carefully evaluated before diving in.

By carefully considering your financial goals and risk tolerance, combined with thorough research into specific neighborhoods, you can make an informed decision about whether the Boston real estate market is the right fit for your investment portfolio.

Boston's Booming Neighborhoods: Top Spots for Recent Real Estate Growth

The Boston housing market continues to be a force, with property values steadily rising across the city. However, some neighborhoods have witnessed particularly impressive growth over the past five years. Let's dive into the hottest neighborhoods that have seen significant real estate appreciation (Neighborhoodscout).

  • Seaport District North: This waterfront neighborhood has seen explosive growth in recent years, with new luxury condos, offices, and shops popping up all over the place. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a trendy, walkable neighborhood with stunning views of the harbor.
  • Beacon Hill East: This historic neighborhood is known for its cobblestone streets, gaslit lamps, and charming brick row houses. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a quiet, upscale neighborhood with a strong sense of community.
  • Leather District / Downtown Crossing: This area has undergone a major transformation in recent years, from a gritty industrial district to a trendy hub of shops, restaurants, and lofts. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a lively, central neighborhood with plenty of character.
  • Shawmut East: This up-and-coming neighborhood is located just south of downtown Boston and is home to a mix of historic brownstones, new construction condos, and hip restaurants. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a vibrant, affordable neighborhood with a lot of potential.
  • Seaport District: This waterfront neighborhood is home to the Boston Convention Center, the Boston Harbor Hotel, and a number of luxury condos. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a modern, amenity-rich neighborhood with stunning views of the harbor.
  • Brighton East: This neighborhood is located just west of Boston and is home to a mix of students, young professionals, and families. It's a great place to live if you're looking for an affordable, diverse neighborhood with a lively bar scene.
  • Boston University: This neighborhood is home to Boston University and a number of other colleges and universities. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a vibrant, youthful neighborhood with plenty of bars and restaurants.
  • South End: This historic neighborhood is known for its Victorian brownstones, tree-lined streets, and diverse population. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a charming, walkable neighborhood with a strong sense of community.
  • North Allston: This neighborhood is located just west of Boston and is home to a mix of students, young professionals, and families. It's a great place to live if you're looking for an affordable, diverse neighborhood with a close-knit community.
  • Back Bay West / Berklee College of Music: This neighborhood is home to Berklee College of Music and a number of other arts institutions. It's a great place to live if you're looking for a vibrant, creative neighborhood with plenty of bars and restaurants.

These are just a few of the many great neighborhoods in Boston. When choosing a neighborhood to live in, it's important to consider your own needs and preferences. Think about how close you want to be to work or school, what kind of amenities are important to you, and what kind of atmosphere you're looking for.

Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?

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The Florida sun, beautiful beaches, and promise of a relaxed lifestyle have long drawn people to Cape Coral. Homes were selling like hotcakes, and the city seemed destined for perpetual growth. But lately, a chill wind seems to be blowing through the Cape Coral real estate market. Could a crash be on the horizon, reminiscent of the devastating events of 2008? Let's delve into the data, dissect the trends, and see what 2025 might hold.

Why is Cape Coral Housing Market in Florida Doomed to Crash in 2025?

I remember vividly the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. As someone who's closely followed the real estate market for years, seeing families lose their homes and livelihoods was truly heartbreaking. Now, observing some similar patterns emerging in Cape Coral, I feel a sense of urgency to understand what's unfolding and share that knowledge.

A Deep Dive into Cape Coral's Real Estate Woes: Echoes of the Past?

To answer the question of whether Cape Coral is heading for a crash, we need to analyze the present and also glance in the rearview mirror. Are the ghosts of 2008 stirring? Let's see how things compare.

Cape Coral wasn’t just affected by the 2008 crisis; it was arguably ground zero for the housing bubble's burst. A confluence of factors created the perfect storm:

  • Speculative Mania: Everyone was a “real estate expert”, buying homes as investments, fueled by the dream of flipping them for a quick profit. Many were naive.
  • Subprime Lending Gone Wild: Banks handed out mortgages like candy without enough due diligence. Loans with adjustable rates and balloon payments were common, setting homeowners up for future shocks. People were offered money at every turn.
  • Lack of Regulation and Oversight: The system failed to protect homeowners and the wider economy from predatory lending practices.
  • Greed and Ignorance: Financial incentives drove reckless behavior at all levels, from mortgage brokers to Wall Street executives.

When the bubble finally burst, it sent shockwaves across the nation, and Cape Coral was among the hardest hit. Foreclosure rates skyrocketed, property values plummeted, and many families found themselves underwater on their mortgages. The scars of that crisis are still visible in some parts of the city.

Cape Coral's Housing Market in 2025: Déjà Vu?

Fast forward to today, and the trends in Cape Coral are raising some serious concerns. Here's a snapshot of the current situation:

  • Plummeting Home Prices: According to multiple reports I'm seeing, the situation is precarious. Redfin stated that in May of 2025, Cape Coral home prices were down 7.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $361,000. That is not a good thing for sellers.
  • Stagnant Sales: Buyers are hesitant. Redfin claims that there were 608 homes sold in May this year, down by 5.7% from 645 last year.
  • Shift to a Buyer's Market: The upper hand has swung from sellers to buyers, empowering buyers to snag better deals.
  • Surge in Time on Market: According to Redfin the normal transaction time has dramatically increased. Homes remain available for 76 days on average compared to 59 days from last year.
  • Bottom Ranked: I came across a rather concerning report from Fox 4 Now, the news outlet ranked Cape Coral last among 123 midsize cities in the U.S. in their July 2025 hotness ratings chart.

To summarize, here's a table breaking down the important numbers:

Key Metric Value (May 2025) Change from Previous Year Source
Median Home Price $361,000 Down 7.7% Redfin
Homes Sold 608 Down 5.7% Redfin
Days on Market 76 days Up from 59 days Redfin

Decoding the Signs: Why is Cape Coral Facing This Pressure?

So, what's driving this downturn? A complex interplay of forces is at work:

  • Falling Prices: A sustained decline in prices indicates a shift in the balance of supply and demand.
  • Elevated Mortgage Rates: With interest rates hovering around 6.94% for a 30-year fixed mortgage currently, prospective buyers are getting priced out of the market. No one likes higher interest rates.
  • Economic Cloudiness: Global uncertainties, inflation worries, and fears of a potential recession are making people cautious about big investments.
  • Excess Inventory: Both new constructions and existing homes hitting the market after Hurricane Ian have resulted in a glut of supply.
  • The Perils of Nature: Cape Coral’s vulnerability to hurricanes, floods, and rising sea levels increases insurance costs and could affect property resale values.

2008 vs. 2025: Parallels and Divergences

While some similarities exist between the current situation and the 2008 crisis, there are also important differences. The 2008 crisis was driven by subprime mortgages, speculative buying, and lax regulations, whereas now, high mortgage rates, economic uncertainty, and a supply glut are the primary drivers. Foreclosures are a risk, but the scale is way smaller than what we saw at the time.

Expert Insights and Predictions

What are the experts in the real estate world saying about Cape Coral?

  • Quotes are pouring in that are concerning. Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality warns of “housing market headwinds”“. She identified that Cape Coral’s -6.5% year-over-year price decline in April 2025 stands out against the national growth of 2.0%.
  • Realtors I have spoken to are advising that sellers be realistic.

What Buyers and Sellers in Cape Coral Should Be Doing Right Now

For the Savvy Buyer:

  • This might be a prime opportunity to negotiate a better deal.
  • Thoroughly investigate the property, including potential flood risks and insurance expenses.
  • Take your time, and consult a local real estate attorney.

For the Strategic Seller:

  • Adjust your price expectations to meet the market realities.
  • Consider working with a local real estate agent who understands local conditions.
  • Highlight what makes your property stands out.

The Bottom Line: Proceed with Informed Caution

Is Cape Coral guaranteed to crash? Not necessarily. However, there is a high chance of price decline. This is a time for informed caution and strategic decision-making. By understanding the market dynamics, seeking expert advice, and carefully assessing your risk tolerance, you can navigate the Cape Coral real estate landscape with greater confidence.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates August 3, 2025: Rates Dip Almost Across the Board

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On August 3, 2025, mortgage rates today reveal a slight drop in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.67%, down 19 basis points from last week’s 6.86%, according to Zillow’s latest data. Meanwhile, 15-year fixed mortgage rates edged up slightly to 5.77%, and 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates nudged higher by 1 basis point to 7.18%.

Refinancing rates show a modest decline for 30-year fixed loans to 6.94%, but 15-year fixed refinance rates increased to 5.81%, and 5-year ARM refinance rates rose more noticeably to 7.84%. This nuanced pattern reflects ongoing economic uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy influences amid a complex housing and inflation environment.

Key Takeaways

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.67%, the lowest in a week, signaling a modest easing for homebuyers.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly to 5.77%, showing uneven movement across loan terms.
  • 5-year ARM mortgage rates increased marginally to 7.18%.
  • 30-year fixed refinance rates decreased to 6.94%, but 15-year and 5-year ARM refinancing rates both increased.
  • Fed’s hold on interest rates continues amidst economic slowdowns; future cuts may reduce mortgage rates later in 2025.
  • Borrowers should watch out for Federal Reserve decisions in September and December, which could shape mortgage trends.

Overview of Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Here is an updated glance at current mortgage and refinance rates across major loan types on August 3, 2025:

Loan Type Current Rate (%) Weekly Change (bps) APR (%) Weekly APR Change (bps)
30-Year Fixed (Mortgage) 6.67 -0.19 7.18 -0.14
15-Year Fixed (Mortgage) 5.77 +0.02 6.11 -0.10
5-Year ARM (Mortgage) 7.18 +0.01 7.79 -0.24
30-Year Fixed (Refinance) 6.94 -0.01 – –
15-Year Fixed (Refinance) 5.81 +0.08 – –
5-Year ARM (Refinance) 7.84 +0.27 – –

(Compiled from Zillow’s August 3, 2025 Rate Report)

Conforming and Government Loan Rate Details

Breaking down conforming vs. government-backed mortgage loans reveals small but important variations:

Program Rate (%) Weekly Change (%) APR (%) Weekly APR Change (%)
30-Year Fixed Conforming 6.67 -0.18 7.18 -0.14
20-Year Fixed Conforming 6.34 -0.04 6.84 +0.06
15-Year Fixed Conforming 5.77 -0.13 6.11 -0.10
10-Year Fixed Conforming 5.94 +0.19 6.34 +0.22
7-Year ARM Conforming 6.88 +0.11 7.66 +0.01
5-Year ARM Conforming 7.18 -0.55 7.79 -0.24
30-Year Fixed FHA 7.25 -0.15 8.27 -0.17
30-Year Fixed VA 6.40 +0.08 6.72 +0.19
15-Year Fixed FHA 5.75 +0.24 6.72 +0.20
15-Year Fixed VA 5.75 -0.10 6.25 +0.06

Current Refinance Rates and Trends

Refinancing shows a mixed picture with a slight decline in the 30-year fixed refinance rate and increases for shorter-term and ARM refinances:

Refinance Program Rate (%) Weekly Change (bps)
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.94 -0.01
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.81 +0.08
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.84 +0.27

The data shows the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped by 12 basis points from 7.06% last week, a small but positive shift for homeowners looking to reduce payments. However, the 15-year fixed and ARM refinance rates are trending upward, reflecting continued market volatility and risk premiums on adjustable loans.

Mortgage vs. Refinance Rate Trends: What’s Causing These Movements?

Mortgage rates and refinance rates often move together but can show divergences due to several reasons:

  • Risk Appetite and Loan Duration: Refinance borrowers tend to be more sensitive to short-term rate changes and credit factors, which can drive ARM refinancing costs higher if lenders perceive increased risk.
  • Market Demand: The demand for refinancing tends to drop when rates rise or remain high, pushing lenders to adjust pricing, especially on shorter-term products.
  • Federal Reserve Policies: The Fed’s actions influence long-term borrowing costs indirectly, as mortgage rates typically follow 10-year Treasury yields. Recent Fed rate pauses and hints of future cuts have contributed to these nuanced shifts.

Federal Reserve’s Influence on Mortgage Rates (2024-2025)

The Federal Reserve shapes mortgage rates mainly through its management of the federal funds rate and bond purchases. Here’s a detailed view of how Fed actions impacted mortgage rates from the pandemic through today:

  • Pandemic Recovery Period (2021-2022): The Fed’s bond-buying kept mortgage rates exceptionally low, boosting home buying.
  • Rate Hikes (2022-2023): To fight inflation, the Fed aggressively increased benchmark interest rates by 5.25 percentage points. Mortgage rates consequently surged to 20-year highs.
  • Late 2024 Pivot: The Fed started cutting rates three times, lowering the federal funds rate to a 4.25%-4.5% range, easing some pressure on mortgage rates.
  • 2025 Developments: Five consecutive hold meetings on interest rates reflect uncertainty; internal Fed dissent shows tension between supporting growth and controlling inflation.

Currently, mortgage rates hover near 6.8% for 30-year fixed loans, with forecasts suggesting possible declines toward 6% later in 2025 if the Fed continues cutting rates.

Economic Factors Behind Today's Mortgage Rate Movements

Understanding mortgage rate trends requires a deep dive into macroeconomic factors:

  • Inflation Persistence: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation remains stubbornly above target at around 2.7%. Rising tariffs and supply chain issues complicate inflation control.
  • Economic Growth Slows: U.S. GDP growth decelerated to about 1.2% annualized in the first half of 2025. Slower growth can reduce the Fed’s incentive to hike rates but also dampens borrowing demand.
  • Employment Trends: Unemployment creeping up toward 4.5% adds pressure on consumer confidence and housing activity.

These dynamics create a balancing act where lenders cautiously adjust mortgage rates in reaction to a complex mix of forward-looking economic data and policy signals.

Example Calculation: Impact of Rate Changes on Monthly Payments

To put today’s mortgage rates in perspective, here’s an example comparing monthly payments on a $300,000 home loan:

Loan Term & Rate Interest Rate Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
30-Year Fixed at 6.67% 6.67% $1,936
30-Year Fixed at 6.86% 6.86% $2,026
15-Year Fixed at 5.77% 5.77% $2,458

Calculation method: Monthly payment calculated using the standard mortgage formula for fixed-rate loans. The 19 basis point drop in the 30-year fixed rate from 6.86% to 6.67% saves roughly $90 per month or $1,080 annually on a $300,000 loan.

This demonstrates how even small rate fluctuations can significantly impact household budgets, emphasizing the importance of staying informed about mortgage rate changes.

What to Watch Next in Mortgage Rate Trends

Looking ahead, key Fed meetings on September 16-17 and in December 2025 are pivotal. Markets assign nearly a 50% chance of a rate cut in September, which could trigger mortgage rate declines. If those cuts materialize, borrowers may see 30-year fixed rates drop closer to or below 6% by year-end.

Conversely, persistent inflation or geopolitical shocks could push rates higher or cause volatility, especially in adjustable-rate mortgage products. Homebuyers and refinancers should keep a close eye on Treasury yields, mortgage bond prices, and Federal Reserve statements for the clearest signals.

Final Thoughts on Mortgage Rates Today – August 3, 2025

Mortgage rates today reveal a subtle easing for 30-year fixed loans alongside mixed signals for shorter-term loans and refinancing. While the average 30-year fixed rate dipped to 6.67%, refinancers face a slightly more challenging environment with some rate increases. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and ongoing economic challenges create a backdrop of uncertainty but also potential opportunity if rate cuts come later this year.

I consider this a signal that patience and timing remain crucial. Watching Fed moves and economic data closely will help borrowers and homeowners make smarter financial choices as mortgage conditions evolve.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

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20 Worst Housing Markets Facing Biggest Price Crash or Correction by 2026

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Worried about where the housing market might tank next? You’re in the right spot. The numbers don’t lie – home values in the United States are forecast to dip 1.4% nationwide, and some cities? They’re staring down steeper drops. While the national average shows a modest cooling, these 20 regions are flashing red flags. We dug into the latest forecasts to spotlight the 20 riskiest or worst housing markets where prices could tumble or crash between now and May 2026.

20 Worst Housing Markets Facing Biggest Price Crash or Correction by 2026 🏠💸

📉 What’s Going Down (and Why) Between Now and 2026

Before we jump into the list, let's talk about why some housing markets might be heading for a correction. Several factors are at play:

  • Rising Inventory: More homes on the market mean buyers have more choices, giving them leverage to negotiate lower prices. I’ve seen this firsthand in my own neighborhood – when several similar homes hit the market, prices softened quickly.
  • Elevated Mortgage Rates: High mortgage rates in 2025 are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which has led to higher borrowing costs across the board, alongside factors like ongoing economic uncertainty influenced by potential trade measures and government spending, and strong demand in the housing market coupled with limited supply. Higher rates make buying a home more expensive, sidelining some potential buyers. This reduced demand can lead to price drops, especially in areas where affordability is already stretched thin.
  • Labor Market Concerns: Economic uncertainty and potential job losses can make people hesitant to make big purchases like homes. Factors like trade policy changes, reciprocal tariffs, fluctuating interest rates, and evolving immigration policies are creating uncertainty for businesses, potentially impacting hiring and investment decisions
  • Rental Market Shifts: New construction is impacting the rental market, driving up vacancy rates and slowing rent growth. This can indirectly affect the housing market, as some potential buyers may opt to rent for longer.

Understanding the Data

The following analysis is based on Zillow's projections and focuses on Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). These are regions consisting of at least one urbanized area with a population of 50,000 or more, plus adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration with the core.

Here's a breakdown of the data used in this analysis:

  • Market: The specific Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).
  • Area Type: Metropolitan Statistical Area.
  • State: The state where the MSA is located.
  • Base Date: Represents the starting month for price level change.
  • Price Change Projection as of June 30, 2025: Projected price change.
  • Price Change Projection as of August 31, 2025: Projected price change.
  • Price Change Projection as of May 31, 2026: Projected price change.

Now, let's dive into the list. Remember, these are projections, and things can change. However, these areas are currently identified as being at higher risk of price declines.

Here is the list of the 20 Worst Housing Markets on the Verge of a Big Price Decline in one year from now:

Housing Markets Facing Price Declines

The 20 Housing Markets Facing the Biggest Price Declines

Price projections from May 2025 to May 2026

Rank Market State Jun 30, 2025 Aug 31, 2025 May 31, 2026
1 Greenville, MS MS -2.6% -5.5% -15.0%
2 Pecos, TX TX -1.5% -3.8% -14.2%
3 Clarksdale, MS MS -3.1% -7.3% -13.6%
4 Cleveland, MS MS -2.0% -5.1% -13.4%
5 Bennettsville, SC SC -3.0% -6.0% -12.9%
6 Raymondville, TX TX -2.1% -4.9% -12.1%
7 Opelousas, LA LA -1.9% -4.6% -11.6%
8 Morgan City, LA LA -2.6% -5.7% -10.6%
9 Big Spring, TX TX -0.4% -2.2% -10.5%
10 Natchez, MS LA -2.6% -5.3% -10.3%
11 Zapata, TX TX -1.8% -3.5% -10.3%
12 Helena, AR AR -1.0% -2.1% -10.2%
13 Indianola, MS MS -2.6% -4.9% -10.1%
14 Johnstown, PA PA -1.6% -4.5% -10.0%
15 Hobbs, NM NM -0.5% -1.7% -10.0%
16 Alice, TX TX -0.5% -2.0% -9.6%
17 Beeville, TX TX -1.3% -3.2% -9.6%
18 DeRidder, LA LA -0.6% -2.0% -9.5%
19 Houma, LA LA -0.9% -2.7% -9.4%
20 Bogalusa, LA LA -1.5% -3.6% -9.4%

A Closer Look at Some of These Markets

Let's take a moment to examine some of these markets more closely and understand some of the factors that might be contributing to the projected declines.

  • Greenville, MS: Located in the Mississippi Delta, Greenville's economy has historically been tied to agriculture. Declining agricultural opportunities and population shifts could be contributing to housing market weakness.
  • Pecos, TX: Pecos has seen significant growth due to the oil and gas industry. However, fluctuations in energy prices can lead to booms and busts, impacting housing demand. A sustained downturn in the energy sector could explain the projected decline.
  • Clarksdale, MS: Famous for its blues music heritage, Clarksdale faces economic challenges similar to other parts of the Mississippi Delta. Limited job opportunities and population loss are likely factors.
  • Johnstown, PA: Once a major steel production center, Johnstown has struggled with economic diversification. The decline of the steel industry has had a lasting impact on the area's economic prospects and housing market.

Why Are These Markets Particularly Vulnerable?

Several factors might make these markets more susceptible to housing price declines:

  • Economic Dependence on a Single Industry: Many of these areas rely heavily on one or two industries (like agriculture, oil and gas, or manufacturing). If those industries suffer, the entire local economy can take a hit.
  • Population Decline: Some of these areas have been losing population for years. Fewer residents mean less demand for housing.
  • Limited Job Opportunities: Lack of diverse job opportunities can make it difficult to attract and retain residents, impacting the housing market.
  • Affordability Issues: While prices might be lower compared to national averages, affordability can still be a problem for many residents in these areas, especially if wages are stagnant.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

If you're thinking of buying or selling in one of these markets, here's what you should keep in mind:

  • For Sellers: Be realistic about pricing. Overpricing your home could mean it sits on the market for longer, and you might eventually have to lower the price anyway. Consider making improvements to make your home more attractive to buyers.
  • For Buyers: You might have more negotiating power. Take your time, do your research, and don't be afraid to make a lower offer. However, be mindful of the risks involved in buying in a declining market.

National Trends in Home Values and Sales

Even though some markets are expected to decline, it's important to look at the bigger picture. Here's what Zillow projects for the national housing market:

  • Home Values: A nationwide decline of 1.4% is projected. However, this varies significantly by region.
  • Existing Home Sales: The projection is around 4.14 million sales, a 1.9% increase from 2024. Increased inventory is expected to drive sales.

The Rental Market Outlook

The rental market is also seeing some changes:

  • Single-Family Rents: Expected to rise by 2.8% in 2025.
  • Multi-Family Rents: Expected to increase by 1.6% in 2025.

These forecasts have been revised downward due to increased construction and higher vacancy rates. This suggests that renters might have more options and less pressure from rising rents in some areas.

Final Thoughts

The housing market is always changing. While these projections offer valuable insights, it's important to remember that they are not guarantees. Economic conditions, local developments, and other unforeseen events can all impact housing prices.

If you're considering making a move, do your homework, consult with real estate professionals, and make informed decisions based on your individual circumstances.

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Today’s 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Goes Down by 14 Basis Points – August 2, 2025

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Are you keeping an eye on mortgage rates? If you're thinking about buying a home or refinancing, you should be! According to Zillow, the national average 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rate has decreased to 7.16%, a 14-basis-point drop from the previous rate of 7.30%. While this might seem small, every little bit helps when you're dealing with a mortgage. Let's dive deeper into what this means for you and the broader housing market.

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Goes Down 14 Basis Points From 7.30% to 7.16% – Aug 2, 2025

A Closer Look at Today's Mortgage Rate Changes

It's not just the 5-year ARM that's been moving. Here's a snapshot of how different mortgage types are performing as of today:

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.68% down 0.17% 7.13% down 0.19%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.34% down 0.04% 6.84% up 0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.74% down 0.16% 6.03% down 0.18%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.94% up 0.19% 6.34% up 0.22%
7-year ARM 6.88% up 0.11% 7.66% up 0.01%
5-year ARM 7.16% down 0.57% 7.72% down 0.30%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Source: Zillow

As you can see, most fixed-rate mortgages have also seen a slight decrease this week, which is generally good news for potential homebuyers.

Why the Focus on ARMs? Understanding the Basics

An Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) is a type of mortgage where the interest rate is not fixed for the entire loan term. Instead, it's fixed for an initial period (in this case, five years) and then adjusts periodically based on a benchmark interest rate.

  • The Initial Fixed Period: This is when you get a predictable interest rate and monthly payment.
  • The Adjustment Period: After the initial period, your interest rate can go up or down depending on market conditions.

The 5-year ARM is a popular choice for folks who don't plan on staying in their home for more than five years, or those who believe interest rates will go down in the future. They are betting that they will sell or refinance the home before the rate adjusts upward significantly.

The Fed's Role: The Puppet Master Behind the Curtain

Mortgage rates don't just appear out of thin air. They are heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve (the Fed), which is the central bank of the United States. The Fed uses monetary policy, like adjusting the federal funds rate (the rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight), to try to keep the economy stable.

Here's a quick recap of the Fed's recent actions:

  • 2021-2023: Rate Hikes to Fight Inflation: Remember those pandemic-era low interest rates? Well, to combat rising inflation, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate by 5.25 percentage points, pushing mortgage rates up to 20-year highs.
  • Late 2024: A Glimmer of Hope (Rate Cuts): After a period of holding steady, the Fed cut rates three times at the end of 2024, reducing the federal funds rate by 1 percentage point.
  • 2025: A Year of Waiting: So far in 2025, the Fed has held rates steady, creating some uncertainty in the market.

As of July 30, 2025, there was even disagreement within the Fed, with some members pushing for immediate rate cuts due to a slowing economy.

Digging Deeper: The Economic Crosscurrents

The Fed's decisions are based on a complex mix of economic data. Here are some key factors influencing their choices:

  • Inflation: Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a measure of inflation, is still above the Fed's target. This is making them hesitant to cut rates too quickly.
  • Economic Growth: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth has slowed down, and unemployment is creeping up. This is putting pressure on the Fed to lower rates to stimulate the economy.
  • Geopolitical Tensions: Increased tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty further complicate the economic outlook.

What Does This Mean for You? Practical Implications

So, how does all of this translate into your everyday life?

  • Current Homebuyers: If you're in the market to buy a home, be aware that rates are still relatively high. However, the Fed's signals suggest that some relief may be coming later in 2025 or early 2026.
  • Refinancers: If you have a mortgage rate above 7%, keep a close eye on the Fed's upcoming meetings in September and December. These meetings could provide clues about potential rate cuts.
  • Investors: The bond market still remains volatile in lieu of the decision. Also, the 10 year treasury yield will be sensitive to the Fed rhetoric.

Basically, for the people buying now, it could be good especially the ARMs, and for the refinancers, they need to monitor the trend.

The Future: What to Expect

The Fed is expected to gradually ease monetary policy over the next few years. Their projections suggest that rates could settle near 2.25%-2.5% by 2027. But in this ever changing world, it is only projections and is subject to change due to unforeseen circumstances.

Here are some key dates to watch:

  • September 16-17 Meeting: The next critical juncture, with updated economic projections.
  • December Meeting: Likely the Fed's last realistic 2025 opportunity if September passes without action.

Why Choose a 5-Year ARM? Pros and Cons

Here's a quick breakdown of the advantages and disadvantages of a 5-year ARM:

Pros:

  • Lower Initial Interest Rate: You typically get a lower interest rate compared to a fixed-rate mortgage, which can save you money in the short term.
  • Flexibility: If you don't plan on staying in your home for more than five years, an ARM can be a good option.
  • Potential for Rate Decreases: If interest rates go down during the adjustment period, your mortgage payment could decrease.

Cons:

  • Rate Adjustments: After the initial fixed period, your interest rate can increase, leading to higher monthly payments.
  • Uncertainty: It's hard to predict where interest rates will be in the future, so you're taking a risk when you choose an ARM.
  • Complexity: ARMs can be more complicated than fixed-rate mortgages, so it's important to understand how they work.

My Take: A Cautious Optimism

While the decrease in the 5-year ARM rate is good news, it's essential to approach the situation with informed caution. The economy is still facing numerous challenges, and the Fed's actions are not always predictable.

If you're considering an ARM, do your research and understand the risks involved. Talk to a mortgage professional to get personalized advice based on your financial situation and goals.

Remember, buying a home is a big decision. Take your time, weigh your options, and make sure you're comfortable with your choice.

Capitalize on ARM Rates Before They Rise Even Higher

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

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