Welcome to the latest update on the Boise housing market for 2023. The real estate landscape in the Treasure Valley region has been a dynamic mix of shifting demands, constrained supplies, and strategic maneuvers. Let's dive into the details and explore how these factors are shaping the housing market this year.
RECOMMENDED READING: Idaho Housing Market Forecast for 2023
Boise Housing Supply and Demand Dynamics
Price Surge Despite Softened Demand: According to Weknowboise.com, in the face of softened demand, the Ada County housing market has witnessed a remarkable surge in prices. Since the beginning of the year, prices have surged by an impressive 11% in Ada County. Even sought-after neighborhoods have experienced larger gains, underlining the strength of the market despite subdued demand. In comparison, Canyon County's housing prices have increased by a more modest 3%.
Supply Scarcity and Rising Prices: One of the key driving factors behind these price surges is the limited supply of homes for sale. This year's demand might be lower than previous years, but the scarcity of available homes has created a competitive environment that's pushing prices higher.
Boise Inventory Insights
Historical Trends in Inventory: A noteworthy observation is that apart from the period spanning 2020–21, the current housing market features the lowest number of homes for sale in August over the past decade. This scarcity of available properties has been a dominant factor in driving up housing prices.
County Price Trends: As of July, the median price of a single-family home stood at $540,000 in Ada County and $404,990 in Canyon County, showing marginal changes from the previous month. This indicates a certain level of stability in the midst of changing market dynamics.
Market Shifts and Buyer Behavior
Shifting Favor: After a brief period favoring buyers in the final quarter of the previous year, the Treasure Valley housing market, which encompasses Ada and Canyon Counties, has shifted decisively towards sellers this spring. Attendance at open houses and property showings in 2023 has exceeded 2019 levels, indicating pent-up demand.
Buyers' Calculated Approach: Prospective buyers, despite having the financial means to purchase, are treading cautiously. They are closely monitoring market trends, hoping for further price drops before entering the market. Interestingly, their decision to make a move could actually lead to a further increase in prices.
Mortgage Rates and Supply Constraints
Interest Rates and Buyer Adaptation: Following a sharp rise in 2022, mortgage rates have fluctuated between 6% and 7% in 2023. Although these higher rates have somewhat reduced budgets for buyers, they have managed to adapt to this new norm.
Supply Crunch: Supply remains a significant concern for potential buyers across the Treasure Valley region. The number of newly listed homes in July plummeted by 28% compared to the previous year, leading to an over 40% reduction in total inventory. This scarcity has resulted in a mere 2.18-month supply of homes in Ada County and a 2.03-month supply in Canyon County.
Strategic Approaches
Interest-Rate Buydowns: Builders have employed strategic tactics to attract potential buyers, with “interest-rate buydowns” being a prominent strategy. By reducing interest rates and subsequently monthly mortgage payments through upfront fees to lenders, sellers are able to entice buyers, especially first-time ones.
Leveraging Home Price Increases: Builders have skillfully capitalized on recent home price increases, allowing them to offer buydowns with minimal impact on their profit margins. This creative approach benefits both buyers seeking affordability and builders aiming to maintain their margins.
Balancing Act for Buyers: Picky Buyers and Escalating Costs: While buyers are hesitant to compromise on their preferences due to escalating interest rates and home prices, they also need to contend with the added costs of major updates and renovations. This, coupled with increased borrowing costs, has led many potential homeowners to be more selective.
Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook
August: A Buyer's Window. August tends to be a favorable month for homebuyers. Peak inventory and reduced competition offer them the upper hand in securing a deal, following the frenzy of the spring selling season.
Strategic Timing for Sellers. On the flip side, sellers may find it wise to hold off on listing their properties until after Labor Day. Historically, the market experiences a dip in new listings in September, providing an excellent opportunity for well-marketed properties to stand out.
Treasure Valley Housing Market by Area
- Ada County: $540,000, down $49,990 (-8.5%)
- Eagle: $759,900, down $100,050 (-11.6%)
- Garden City: $583,500, up $1,000 (0.1%)
- Kuna: $469,990, down $1,010 (-0.2%)
- Meridian: $527,768, down $69,132 (-11.6%)
- Star: $547,385, down $57,500 (-9.5%)
- Canyon County: $404,990, down $37,005 (-8.4%)
- Caldwell: $366,276, down $58,316 (-13.7%)
- Middleton: $421,900, down $84,682 (-16.7%)
- Nampa: $412,990, down $24,117 (-5.5%)
Ada County Idaho Housing Market Trends
Here are the trends that shaped the real estate landscape in Ada County in June 2023. From affordability concerns to shifting buyer behavior, this report by Boise Regional REALTORS® provides insights into the dynamics influencing the local housing market.
Affordability Challenges Dominate June
Median Sales Price: In June 2023, the median sales price in Ada County stood at $545,000. While this represents an 8.0% decrease compared to the same month the previous year, it's important to note that it marked the third consecutive monthly increase from the preceding month.
Segment Analysis: Breaking down the data reveals interesting trends within the different housing segments. The existing/resale sector saw a cooler median price of $540,000, still showing an impressive uptick of $30,000 from May 2023. Conversely, new construction witnessed the only month-over-month decrease, with a median sales price of approximately $557,500, reflecting a drop of around $49,000.
Affordability Challenges: The ongoing struggle between supply and demand continues to cast a shadow over affordability in Ada County. Rising rent prices for two-bedroom homes have prompted consumers to explore alternatives, with tools like NAR & Apartment Therapy’s “Real [Estate] Talk” interactive hub and IHFA’s rental assistance programs helping renters transition towards homeownership.
The Value of Homeownership
Long-Term Investment: Beyond the immediate concerns of affordability, homeownership holds the promise of long-term wealth accumulation. Recent data from the NAR indicates that middle-income homeowners have seen their wealth increase by a substantial $120,000 over a decade. Homeownership is not just about shelter; it's an investment in building one's overall financial portfolio.
Market Movement and Inventory
Positive Mortgage Application Trend: The housing market has shown forward momentum, with mortgage applications experiencing three consecutive weeks of growth. As inventory continues to shrink, the pressure on prices increases. Concurrently, mortgage rates, currently at 6.81%, might stimulate a slight reprieve from the recent three-month climb.
Inventory Snapshot: There are currently 1,363 homes available in Ada County, comprising 811 existing/resale homes and 552 new builds. This marks the fourth month of positive month-over-month trends for single-family homes. However, this number falls short by 36.2% compared to the inventory available in June 2022.
Sales and Market Trends
Changing Days on Market: Single-family homes in Ada County are now spending an average of 33 days on the market before going under contract. While this represents a significant increase from the astonishingly low 10 days observed last year, it aligns more closely with the pre-COVID market conditions.
Sales Analysis: In terms of sales, all three sectors experienced growth, culminating in a total of 773 sales for the month. This breaks down into 553 resale homes and 220 new construction homes. However, June 2023 witnessed a 5.5% deficit in sales compared to the robust figures seen in June 2022.
Factors Influencing the Market
The “Great Relocation” Impact: The phenomenon known as the “Great Relocation” could be contributing to the more sluggish market conditions. With owner-occupied households increasing by an estimated 2.1 million in a single year, a longer average tenure of 13.2 years in homes might create a lag in future purchases.
Buyer-Seller Dynamics: Buyers are exhibiting patience as they await more available options, while sellers are understandably hesitant to part with their attractively low interest rates secured during the pandemic. It's worth noting that interest rates can be negotiated down with cash equity from the current home if moving is on the horizon.
Boise Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024
As inflation continues to dominate the U.S. economic outlook, a national economist forecasts that some “overvalued” regional housing markets may experience a 15 percent to 20 percent decline in home values if a recession occurs. Boise, Idaho tops the list of 40 regional housing areas that are most likely to experience similar price declines during the next year. This is according to a study published by Fortune, which utilized unique access to an updated proprietary analysis of U.S. housing markets by Moody's Analytics.
Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past year. As of June 30, 2023, the Boise housing market is showing some interesting trends and forecasts. According to Zillow, the average home value in Boise City is currently listed at $463,505. However, it's worth noting that there has been a decrease of 8.5% in home values over the past year. This decline could be attributed to various factors such as economic fluctuations, changes in demand and supply dynamics, and broader real estate market trends.
Market Value Trends:
The 8.5% decrease in average home value over the past year could have resulted from a variety of factors impacting the local real estate market. These might include shifts in economic conditions, changes in buyer preferences, fluctuations in interest rates, and other external influences.
Market Forecast:
Zillow's 1-year market forecast suggests a potential rebound for the Boise housing market. The forecast anticipates a 6.2% increase in home values over the next year. While forecasts are based on historical data and current trends, it's important to remember that they are subject to change based on evolving market conditions.
Selling Trends:
As of May 31, 2023, the median sale-to-list ratio is approximately 0.997, indicating that, on average, homes are selling for almost their full listing price. This suggests that there might be room for negotiation, but sellers are generally achieving close to their asking prices.
Demand and Supply:
The Boise housing market also displays interesting dynamics when it comes to demand and supply. About 24.6% of sales are being completed above the list price, which might indicate strong competition among buyers for available properties. On the other hand, 49.7% of sales are occurring under the list price, suggesting that there is still room for buyers to negotiate favorable deals.
Market Activity:
Another notable statistic is the median number of days a property takes to go pending, which is 9 days as of June 30, 2023. This rapid pace of sales could be a result of high demand, attractive properties, and a competitive market environment.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Boise Idaho?
Deciding whether now is a good time to buy a house in Boise, Idaho, requires considering various factors that influence the local housing market and your personal financial situation. While I can provide general guidance, it's important to conduct thorough research and potentially consult with real estate professionals before making a decision. Here are some key factors to consider:
Current Market Conditions: Based on the information you provided earlier, the Boise housing market has experienced an 8.5% decrease in average home values over the past year, but there is a forecasted 6.2% increase in home values over the next year. This suggests that there might be potential for home values to rebound in the near future. However, keep in mind that forecasts are not guaranteed and can be influenced by various factors.
Interest Rates: Consider the current interest rates for mortgages. Lower interest rates can make buying a home more affordable over the long term. If interest rates are favorable, it might be a good time to consider buying, as it could result in lower monthly mortgage payments.
Personal Financial Situation: Assess your own financial stability and readiness for homeownership. Evaluate your income, savings, credit score, and other financial commitments. Buying a home is a significant financial decision, and it's important to ensure that you're financially prepared for both the upfront costs and ongoing expenses of homeownership.
Affordability: Look at the affordability of homes in your desired area of Boise. Calculate your budget, taking into account not only the purchase price but also property taxes, homeowners insurance, maintenance costs, and potential homeowners association (HOA) fees.
Long-Term Goals: Consider your long-term goals and how buying a home aligns with them. Do you plan to stay in Boise for an extended period? Does homeownership fit into your lifestyle and future plans? Real estate is generally a long-term investment, so it's important to have a clear vision of how homeownership fits into your overall life plan.
Local Economy and Job Market: Research the local economy and job market in Boise. A stable and growing job market can positively impact housing demand and property values. If the job market is strong and diverse, it might indicate a stable real estate market.
Supply and Demand: Evaluate the supply and demand dynamics in the Boise housing market. If there is high demand and limited housing inventory, it could lead to competitive bidding and potentially higher prices. Conversely, a higher inventory might offer more options and negotiating power for buyers.
Is Boise Idaho a Good Place to Invest in Real Estate?
Should you consider Boise real estate investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Boise is a good investment. You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for real estate investors and buyers in 2023. If you want to find investment opportunities, you need to find sleeper opportunities. These are places where demand is growing but it isn’t so hot that you risk being burned by buying at the top of the market. And we found such a “sleeper” investment opportunity in Boise, Idaho.
Idaho has much more than potatoes. Boise is a full city, home to more than 200,000 people. Nor is that the entirety of the Boise housing market, since Boise has suburbs. The Boise City–Nampa, Idaho Metropolitan Statistical Area is home to over 700,000 people. Nearly 40 percent of Idaho's total population lives in the area, and it includes Idaho's three largest cities – Boise, Nampa, and Meridian.
Boise has a mixture of owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units for sale. There are more homeowners than renters. As per Neigborhoodscout.com, a real estate data provider, three and four-bedroom single-family detached home houses are the most common housing units in Boise. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Boise include duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments.
Single-family homes account for about 65% of Boise's housing units. The year 2020 began with a new record in price gains for Boise. The Boise housing market looked hotter than before with a supply hitting a two-year low. The extreme shortage of existing homes and the increasing share of new home sales drove prices up.
Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Boise real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city. We’ll address the biggest factor pulling people to the Boise housing market next.
1. Boise's Big Student Market That Rents
The Boise metro area is the largest population center in Idaho and home to the state capital, so it is the largest student market in the state. Boise State University is located here. So are satellite campuses of the University of Idaho ad Idaho State University. Boise Bible College is also located in Boise. This provides significant opportunities for those who want to invest in the Boise real estate market and cater to college students.
2. The Lure of Jobs in Boise
One factor propelling the Boise real estate market is the availability of jobs. In Boise, population and job growth triple the national average. Boise is home to far more than lumber and food processors, though it is home to the headquarters of Idaho Pacific Lumber Company. The area’s largest private employer is Micron Technology, though Hewlett Packard and Simplot employ thousands here.
There are several manufacturing facilities here providing more stable and better-paying work than you could find in the seasonal tourism and irregular agribusiness sector. The university and state governments are major employers. Boise has low unemployment overall, currently hovering around 3%. That is two points below the national average.
3. The Strong Boise Rental Market
The average wage in Boise is a dollar an hour higher than the state average, so moving there gives you a pay hike. However, Boise has generally low wages compared to other metro areas. The average pay rate is about $40,000 per person. While housing is cheaper than in states like California and Oregon, the pay is lower, too. This means many people must rent. A healthy vacancy rate is around 5%.
In Boise, it is around 2%, and in the cheapest units, 1%. This has led to a flood of new apartment construction in the Boise housing market, but higher-than-average construction costs in Idaho slow down relative to demand. It certainly didn’t help local renters when there was no apartment construction at all in 2008 while new construction lagged in the last years of the Great Recession which only ended in 2016. That is why rental rates went up 7% between 2017 and 2018.
As of August 2023, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Boise City, ID is currently $1,265. This is a 2% decrease compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Boise City, ID is currently $1,495. This is a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Boise City, ID is currently $1,995. This is a 5% decrease compared to the previous year.
- The average rent for a 4-bedroom apartment in Boise City, ID is currently $2,450. This is a 9% decrease compared to the previous year.
4. Boise's Highly Rated Schools
Boise has the top-ranked school district in the state. And you get these high-quality schools along with cheap housing, high quality of life, and short commutes. If you’re one of the many people fleeing the high crime, unemployment, and regulatory burden of California, that’s an ideal combination.
5. An Excellent Quality of Life in Boise
Any town can say they have a great atmosphere or quality of life, but Boise makes national publications lists of best places to live – repeatedly. In 2008, they were listed second in Forbes on the best places for business and careers. In 2014, Time Magazine listed Boise as the best city “getting it right”. In 2018, Boise ranked 46th in Money magazine’s best places to live list. Boise’s ranking was unusual in that it was a large city and state capital, while most cities that made this list were the suburbs of big cities or college towns. US News and World Report listed Boise as the 23rd best place to live and 66th to retire in the 125 biggest metro areas in the United States.
6. The Outdoor Recreational Opportunities in Boise
This is such a hallmark of Boise that it can’t be considered just one more aspect of the quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic presents not only a global health crisis but has also disrupted the daily lives of people around the world. From a leisure perspective, urban outdoor enthusiasts are one group particularly impacted by the pandemic and the subsequent institutional response. Boise’s location puts you in easy reach of the surrounding wilderness, while the local climate means people bike and raft in the summer and ski in the winter. Rock climbing, kayaking, hunting, golfing, horseback riding, and myriad other activities attract people as tourists (providing significant local employment) and keep residents from considering leaving.
7. Boise's Demographic Momentum
The Boise housing market is driven more by internal migration than international migration. The high price of real estate in Utah has driven a steady stream of Mormons into the Boise real estate market. Their average family consists of three children, 50% larger than the U.S. average. The state is attracting refugee families from the West Coast’s high taxes and housing costs, as well, as they seek a better place to start and raise families. That’s why many in Boise openly mock Californians, though it won’t keep them from buying in the Boise housing market. This means that the Boise market will see continual growth from demographic momentum for years to come.
8. Low Taxes in Boise
Boise has relatively low taxes compared to other areas, particularly on the West Coast. The highest marginal income tax rate in Boise is 7.4%, and the sales tax is approximately 6%. Additionally, the cost of utilities and car insurance is also relatively low. For investors, the average property tax rate of 1% is considered a good value, particularly when considering the low cost of housing. On average, the property tax bill in Boise is around $2300, which is lower than the national average of 1.2% of the home's assessed value and an annual property tax bill of $3000. However, in high-tax states such as New Jersey and New York, property taxes can exceed $10,000 per year.
9. Affordable Real Estate for Buyers Amidst Rising Pricing
One of the attractions of the Boise real estate market is the affordability of large single-family homes. A few years ago, you could find a four-bedroom home for around $200,000, roughly $100,000 below the national average. With increasing demand, homes now tend to be priced around $500,000. Positive market trends have also supported Boise's real estate investment. The Boise real estate market has not only recovered its balance, but it has started to thrive.
With strong market fundamentals in place, this trend does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. A strong local economy and sustained employment are giving buyers confidence, which is crucial for the Boise real estate market. Boise has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation, and housing inventory has never been tighter, driving home prices up. The trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as the population grows, and homes sell quickly.
10. Decent Return on Investment
Idaho (ID) has the 26th highest rent in the country out of 56 states and territories. The Fair Market Rent in Idaho is $1,310 for a 2-bedroom apartment in Boise City, ID HUD Metro FMR Area. For FY 2023, the Boise City, ID HUD Metro FMR Area (Ada County) rent for a studio or efficiency is $929 per month, and $2,159 per month to rent a house or an apartment with 4 bedrooms.
The average Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom home in Idaho is $1,310 per month. Approximately 15% of Americans qualify for some level of housing assistance. The population in Idaho is around 469,473 people. So, there are around 70,421 people in Idaho who could be receiving housing benefits from the HUD.
You could of course charge much more for a large single-family home while affordable properties and low taxes give you a decent ROI on the investment. Slow and steady demand also ensures that your investment will grow in value; the Boise housing market has seen an appreciation of around 10% year over year. We already mentioned how the high demand for rentals relative to supply is keeping rental rates elevated, and the slow rate of construction means that rental rates and property rates aren’t going to fall in the foreseeable future.
Boise, Idaho Real Estate Investment Markets
The Boise real estate market is a sleeper market, seeing slow but steady demand that the local housing market can’t quite meet. The best opportunity is in rentals catering to those who can’t pay a lot in rent but want to be close to major employers. Good cash flow from Boise investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt.
Therefore, finding a good Boise real estate investment opportunity would be key to your success. The best investment is now looking for a rental property that will generate good cash flow. The three most important factors when buying real estate anywhere are location, location, and location. The location creates desirability. Desirability brings demand. There should be a natural and upcoming high demand for rental properties.
Demand would raise the price of your Boise investment property and you should be able to get a good return on your investment over the long term. The neighborhoods in Boise must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate. The neighborhoods should be close to basic amenities, public services, schools, and shopping malls. A cheaper neighborhood in Boise might not be the best place to live in. A cheaper neighborhood should be determined by these factors – Overall Cost Of Living, Rent To Income Ratio, and Median Home Value To Income Ratio.
Some of the popular neighborhoods for buying a house or an investment property in Boise are Harris Ranch, Highlands, North End, Boise Heights, Depot Bench, Downtown Boise City, Southwest Boise City, Sunset, Warm Springs Heights, Warm Springs Mesa, Big Sky, Foothills, East Side, Southwest Ada County Alliance, Southeast Boise, and West Valley.
Boise real estate prices are well above average cost compared to national prices. It depends on how much you are looking to spend and if you are wanting smaller investment properties or larger deals such as duplexes and triplex in Class A neighborhoods. The inventory is low, but opportunities are there.
Even as Boise home prices have reached new heights, the market remains attractive to residential real estate investors. As they continue to compete for potential investment properties at the lower end of the market, the challenges for first-time homebuyers will remain. The homebuyers won’t be able to outbid real estate investors and would end up renting. Highlands has a median listing price of $775K, making it the most expensive neighborhood in Boise. Central Bench is the most affordable neighborhood in Boise, with a median listing price of $254,000.
Idaho Falls is another sizzling hot market for real estate investment in 2020. Idaho Falls, Idaho is enjoying strong but steady growth, because it has the ideal mix of affordable real estate, excellent quality of life, and great economics. People move here because they can find good-paying jobs and affordable homes while looking forward to a bright future. The influx of people from rural Idaho, fleeing Boise or the West Coast is all driving up rental rates in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Rents for small one-bedroom apartments grew nearly 20% year over year, while two-bedroom rents increased roughly 6%. Needless to say, the rents for larger Idaho Falls rental houses are rising faster than the rate of inflation, too.
On the west of Idaho lies the neighboring state of Oregon. Portland, Oregon is a also great place to invest in real estate. The Portland real estate market is booming because the economy is doing well on its own and the area is head and shoulders above California’s deteriorating situation. The Portland housing market has experienced double-digit annual price growth in recent years. Home values rose 11.4% in 2016 alone, according to a report from the real estate data company Clear Capital.
Bend is another small city in Oregon and a good place for real estate investment. Bend is arguably everything that Portland isn’t. It has lower taxes, more open space, more affordable real estate and attracts visitors from all over the country. It has seen steady population growth. However, Bend hasn’t been adding new inventory fast enough to meet the rising demand in the Bend housing market. Instead, most of the new construction has been single-family homes snapped up by buyers. It is a good place to consider investing if you’re willing to take up the challenge.
Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.
NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Boise, Idaho.
Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Boise turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Boise.
Not just limited to Boise or Idaho but you can also invest in some of the best real estate markets in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Boise turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.
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Remember, caveat emptor still applies when buying a property anywhere. Some of the information contained in this article was pulled from third-party sites mentioned under references. Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. As a general policy, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no claims or assertions about the future housing market conditions across the US.
REFERENCES
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