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Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 15, 2025: Rates Jump Across the Board

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On September 15, 2025, mortgage rates in the U.S. have shown mixed movement but a general upward trend, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 6.56%, up 11 basis points from last week’s 6.45%, according to Zillow. Refinancing rates followed a similar pattern: the 30-year fixed refinance rate increased to 6.75%, while the 15-year fixed refinance rate decreased to 5.50%. These shifts reflect a complex economic backdrop, including cooling labor market figures, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, and inflation trends.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 15, 2025: Rates Jump Across the Board

Key Takeaways:

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 6.56% on September 15, 2025, up 11 basis points from last week.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 5.57%; 5-year ARM also declined to 7.15%.
  • 30-year fixed refinance rates increased to 6.75%, stable but up 10 basis points from one week ago.
  • Labor market weakening and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts are key factors influencing these rates.
  • Despite recent increases, mortgage rates remain high compared to historic lows seen in the early 2020s.
  • Experts forecast modest declines later in 2025 and into 2026 but rates are expected to stay above 6% for now.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview – September 15, 2025

Mortgage rates influence homebuyers and homeowners who want to refinance their loans. Here is a snapshot of key mortgage rates nationally:

Type of Loan Current Rate (9/15/25) Change From Last Week Annual Percentage Rate (APR) APR Change
30-Year Fixed 6.56% +0.11% (11 basis points) 7.13% +0.23%
15-Year Fixed 5.57% -0.02% 5.92% +0.12%
5-Year ARM 7.15% -0.16% 7.85% +0.16%
10-Year Fixed 5.79% 0.00% 6.09% 0.00%
30-Year Fixed FHA 7.25% +1.59% 8.28% +1.62%
30-Year Fixed VA 5.99% +0.09% 6.16% +0.06%

(Source: Zillow, September 15, 2025)

Refinance Rates Today

Refinancing remains an essential opportunity for many homeowners hoping to reduce monthly payments or change loan terms. Let's see the current refinance rates:

Type of Refinance Loan Current Rate (9/15/25) Change From Last Week Annual Percentage Rate (APR) APR Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.75% +0.10% Not Specified –
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.50% -0.04% Not Specified –
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.71% 0.00% Not Specified –

Why Are Mortgage Rates Changing? The Economic Backdrop

The movement in mortgage and refinancing rates is deeply tied to various economic signals, most notably labor market performance and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

Labor Market Signals

The latest unemployment report for August 2025 showed:

  • An increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August.
  • Only 22,000 jobs added in August, marking a slowdown.

This labor market cooling can sometimes lead to lower mortgage rates as it signals a slowing economy, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. However, the current rates’ mixed movement shows that other forces are at work as well.

Federal Reserve’s Influence

The Federal Reserve’s actions and their anticipation strongly move mortgage rates because mortgage-backed securities adjust to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

  • From 2021 through mid-2023, the Fed raised rates aggressively to fight inflation, pushing mortgage rates to two-decade highs.
  • At the end of 2024, the Fed began cutting rates, but held steady through five meetings in 2025.
  • Expectations are high for at least one 25 basis-point cut in the September 16-17, 2025 meeting, with markets pricing in a 91% chance.
  • Economic data like slowing job growth encourages market optimism for rate cuts, which can lower mortgage rates.

Nevertheless, forecasts suggest mortgage rates are likely to remain above 6% for the near term, due to inflation persistence and various economic uncertainties.

Mortgage Rates Trends and Forecasts

Mortgage rates have hovered between 6.6% and 6.8% for much of 2025. Recent economic indicators, including weaker job reports and slight easing inflation, have slightly softened expectations about how high rates will go.

Economic experts and organizations provide these outlooks:

  • National Association of REALTORS®: Anticipates average mortgage rates will hover around 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and ease to about 6.1% in 2026.
  • Fannie Mae (August 2025 forecast): Predicts 30-year mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.5% and drop to 6.1% in 2026. Mortgage originations are expected to rise as rates ease.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: Projects rates at about 6.7% at the end of 2025, falling to about 6.5% by end of 2026, with periods of refinancing volume increases and limited refinancing windows due to volatility.
  • Realtor.com: Expects mortgage rates to slowly ease to about 6.4% by the end of the year, similar to the prior year.

Mortgage rates do not operate in isolation—they reflect the interplay between inflation, Federal Reserve actions, global market conditions, and government debt issuance.

How Do These Rates Affect Buyers and Refinancers?

With 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbing above 6.5%, home affordability remains a challenge for many prospective buyers. Monthly payments increase significantly even with small percentage changes in interest rates.

Example Calculation:

Imagine a borrower looking for a $400,000 mortgage:

  • At 6.45% interest (last week’s average), the monthly principal and interest payment over 30 years would be roughly $2,505.
  • At today's average 6.56%, the payment rises to about $2,538.
  • That’s a $33 monthly increase or almost $400 more annually just due to this week's rate change.

Refinancing can potentially save borrowers money if they can reduce their interest rate by a meaningful margin. For homeowners with mortgages above 7%, the current refinance window represents a chance to lock in lower payments, especially if they foresee further rate declines.

Mortgage Rate Types and Variations

Mortgage loans come in different forms, each with unique rate structures:

  • Fixed-rate mortgages: Maintain the same interest rate over the entire term. Common terms are 30-year and 15-year fixed.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): Start with a fixed rate for a period, then adjust periodically. The 5-year ARM, for example, often starts with a lower rate but can rise or fall depending on market conditions.

Current ARM rates remain somewhat higher, especially the 5-year ARM refinance rate at 7.71%, reflecting market uncertainties and expectations of future Federal Reserve moves.

Mortgage Types: Conforming vs. Government Loans

Mortgage rates differ depending on the loan type and backing entity.

  • Conforming loans follow limits set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These loans have slightly lower rates than government loans.
  • Government-backed loans like FHA and VA mortgages have their own rate dynamics, usually reflecting borrower risk.

As of September 15, 2025:

  • FHA 30-year fixed rates climbed notably to 7.25%, reflecting higher risk premiums.
  • VA 30-year fixed loans remain comparatively lower at 5.99%, reflecting VA guarantees.

The Federal Reserve’s Role: What Comes Next?

The Federal Reserve’s imminent September 2025 meeting is highly anticipated:

  • A quarter-point rate cut is expected.
  • Markets are pricing in potential for two additional cuts later in 2025.
  • The Fed’s “dot plot” (projections for interest rates) will offer signals on rate trajectories.

These moves aim to balance continuing inflation control alongside supporting slower economic growth and a weakening labor market. With inflation still persistent but cooling, the Fed must tread carefully to prevent triggering recessions while lowering borrowing costs.

In-Depth Analysis: What Drives Mortgage Rate Volatility?

Mortgage rate volatility comes from several sources:

  • Real-time economic data: Employment, inflation, and GDP reports.
  • Treasury yields: Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which recently dipped to near its lowest since October 2024 at about 4.07%.
  • Global economic conditions: Events abroad and world financial markets affect U.S. Treasury demand and rates.
  • Federal Reserve messaging: Speeches, meeting minutes, and policy changes.

The intricate dance of these variables means mortgage borrowers face uncertainty and need to monitor the environment closely.

Homebuyers and the Rate Environment

Housing affordability remains a top concern for many prospective buyers. Even small rate increases can shift monthly payments dramatically.

Persistent rates above 6% create a challenging backdrop, but with signs of potential Fed easing, buyers may find opportunities opening in the next few months.

Refinancers, especially, should watch for rate movements as opportunities to reduce long-term costs arise.

Mortgage Rate Summary Table – September 15, 2025

Loan Type Rate (%) Movement from Last Week Notes
30-Year Fixed 6.56 +0.11 Rising trend
15-Year Fixed 5.57 -0.02 Slight drop
5-Year ARM 7.15 -0.16 Declining slightly
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.75 +0.10 Stable, slightly up
15-Year Refine 5.50 -0.04 Slight decline
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.25 +1.59 Sharp rise
VA 30-Year Fixed 5.99 +0.09 Slight rise


Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

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Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

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Fed Interest Rate Predictions This Week: 25 Basis Point Cut Widely Expected

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It looks like a sure thing: the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week. After holding steady, the data suggests the central bank will likely lower its key interest rate by a quarter of a percent (0.25%) at its September 17-18, 2025, meeting. This would bring the target range down to 4.00%-4.25%. While a slightly larger cut isn't impossible, most signs point to a more cautious approach as the economy navigates a tricky path between cooling employment and stubbornly persistent inflation.

Fed Interest Rate Predictions This Week: 25 Basis Point Cut Widely Expected

The Economic Picture: A “Soft Landing” with a Few Wobbles

To really get what the Fed might do, you need to look at the two main things they watch: how many people have jobs and how much prices are going up. Think of it like trying to keep everything balanced – not too hot, not too cold.

Recently, the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tell a story of moderation. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), nudged up a bit to 2.9% for the 12 months ending in August 2025. This increase was partly due to things like housing costs going up by 0.4% in a month and food prices climbing 0.5%. Core inflation, which is what prices are like without food and energy, is sticking around at 3.1% year-over-year.

But here's where things get interesting: the job market is showing signs of slowing down. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in August, and new jobs created that month were only 22,000. That's much lower than what most economists were predicting. What makes this even more significant is that when the books were updated, it turned out the economy added nearly 911,000 fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than we previously thought. This weaker job growth, combined with unemployment inching up, suggests the Fed might be more worried about jobs than about inflation just yet.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been hinting at this. He’s said the Fed makes decisions based on the latest data, and it’s clear he’s paying attention to the struggles in the job market.

What the Markets and Experts Are Saying: A Consensus on Cutting

If you look at what people who trade financial contracts are thinking, they're almost certain a rate cut is coming. The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks these expectations, shows a 100% probability of a rate reduction this week, with about 92% of that expecting a 25 basis point cut. This sentiment really built up after that disappointing jobs report in August.

When I look at this, it’s like a snowball effect. Before the jobs report, the chances of a cut were much lower. But once that weak data came out, everyone started to believe a cut was necessary.

Economists are pretty much on the same page. A survey of 107 economists by Reuters in early September 2025 showed that 105 of them predicted a 25 basis point cut. Many of these experts also believe there will be at least one more cut before the year is out. Some are even forecasting total cuts of 50 basis points for the rest of 2025, while others lean towards 75 basis points. Major banks like J.P. Morgan are also calling for a few more quarter-point cuts after this week’s meeting.

However, it’s not all perfectly clear. Some analysts point out that the Fed is in a tough spot. They have to balance the risks of a weak job market against inflation that’s still a bit higher than their 2% target. It reminds me of trying to juggle – you have to keep things moving smoothly without dropping any balls.

Online discussions also show similar feelings. Many people on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) are talking about how a rate cut could be good for stocks and even for cryptocurrencies. Of course, some are also warning that political issues, like possible tariffs, could make things a bit unpredictable in the short term.

Here’s a quick look at what economists are generally expecting for the rest of the year:

Forecasted Action Likelihood (Estimated)
25 bps cut this week ~92%
50 bps cut this week ~8%
Additional cuts by year-end 50%-75% total

Looking Back: A Shift from Raising to Cutting Rates

The Fed’s journey to this point has been quite a ride. Starting in 2022 and into 2023, they aggressively raised interest rates to combat the high inflation that followed the pandemic. Rates went from near zero all the way up to over 5%. By early 2025, things had stabilized, and the Fed kept rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% for a few months. This upcoming cut would be the first in a while, signaling a change in their strategy to support the economy.

Historically, when the Fed starts cutting rates, it’s often to help the job market and prevent a possible recession. Think back to 2019, when they cut rates a few times amid trade tensions; that period saw a bump in stock markets. It’s a careful balancing act – they want to help the economy grow without causing prices to spiral out of control again.

What Happens Next? The Ripple Effects of a Rate Cut

So, what could a quarter-percent rate cut mean for you and for the broader economy?

  • For Investors and Stocks: Generally, lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, which can encourage businesses to invest and expand. This often leads to a boost in the stock market. Stocks, especially in sectors like technology, which are sensitive to interest rates, might see further gains. The S&P 500, which has been performing well, could continue its upward trend.
  • For Homebuyers: Mortgage rates are already reacting to the expectation of a cut. They might even dip below 6% soon. This could make buying a home more affordable and encourage more people to enter the housing market, which has been a bit slow lately due to high borrowing costs.
  • For the Economy as a Whole: Cheaper borrowing could help both consumers and businesses. It might mean lower interest payments on credit cards or loans, and it could stimulate spending. The Fed hopes this will help achieve a “soft landing”—where the economy slows down just enough to control inflation without falling into a recession. However, with inflation still hovering around 2.9%, they’ll be watching closely to make sure they don’t accidentally push prices back up too quickly.

It’s important to remember that while a cut can be good for growth, it also carries risks. If inflation starts creeping up again, maybe due to things like those potential tariffs, the Fed might have to hit the brakes on further cuts. Certain investments, like bonds, might become less attractive as rates fall, while others, like stocks, could become more appealing.

Ultimately, this week’s expected rate cut is part of the Fed’s ongoing effort to read the economic tea leaves and make decisions based on the latest information. It aims to support employment while keeping an eye on inflation, and the effects will likely be felt across many parts of our financial lives.

Position Your Portfolio Ahead of the Fed’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision could shape real estate returns through the rest of 2025. Whether or not a rate cut happens, smart investors are acting now.

Norada Real Estate helps you secure cash-flowing properties in stable markets—shielding your investments from volatility and interest rate swings.

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Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 10 Basis Points

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If you're watching the mortgage market closely, like I am, you'll want to know that the current average 30-year fixed refinance rate stands at 6.75%. Zillow reported that, as of September 15, 2025, the 30-year fixed refinance rate is up by 10 basis points from the previous week's average of 6.65%. While this might feel like a setback, let's dig deeper into what this means and where rates might be headed.

Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 10 Basis Points

Refinance Rates: A Closer Look at Today's Numbers

Here’s a quick rundown of the latest refinance rates:

  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.75% (Up 10 basis points(0.10%))
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.50% (Down 4 basis points(0.04%))
  • 5-Year ARM: 7.71% (No change)

So, what does this mean for you? The slight increase in the 30-year fixed refinance rate might give some potential refinancers pause. On the other hand, the small dip in the 15-year fixed rate could be an attractive option for those looking to pay off their mortgage faster. Ultimately, whether it's worth refinancing depends on your individual financial situation.

Is Refinancing Right for You Right Now?

Deciding whether to refinance isn’t a simple yes or no. Consider why you're thinking about refinancing in the first place. Are you hoping to lower your monthly payments? Shorten your loan term? Or tap into your home equity?

Here are some scenarios where refinancing might make sense:

  • Lowering Your Interest Rate: If you can secure a rate that’s significantly lower than your current one, refinancing could save you a lot of money over the life of the loan.
  • Shortening Your Loan Term: Switching from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage can help you pay off your home faster and save on interest, though your monthly payments will likely be higher.
  • Switching from an ARM to a Fixed-Rate Mortgage: If you're currently in an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage provides stability and protects you from potential rate increases.
  • Consolidating Debt: A cash-out refinance allows you to borrow more than your current mortgage balance and use the extra funds to pay off high-interest debt, such as credit cards.

The Fed's Role: What's Driving Mortgage Rate Trends?

To really understand what's going on with mortgage rates, you need to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The Fed's monetary policy decisions have a big influence on where interest rates go, including mortgage rates.

Here's a quick overview of what the Fed has been up to:

  • Pandemic Era (2020-2021): During the pandemic, the Fed kept rates really low to help the economy. This led to historically low mortgage rates.
  • Rate Hikes (2022-2023): To fight inflation, the Fed raised interest rates aggressively. This caused mortgage rates to jump to 20-year highs.
  • Late 2024 Rate Cuts: After holding rates steady for some time with persistent inflationary pressure, we saw incremental rate cuts.
  • 2025: A Pause and Now Impending Action: The Fed has kept rates steady for months during much of 2025, but recent economic data is now pointing in the direction of further rate cuts.

The big news is that the economy is showing some signs of slowing down. The August 2025 jobs report was weaker than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and only 22,000 jobs created. This, along with inflation is what the Fed needs to act.

Why Mortgage Rates Are Falling (Even Before the Fed Acts)

Interestingly, mortgage rates have started to drop even before the Fed makes any official moves. Here’s why:

  • Anticipation of Fed Rate Cuts: The market is already expecting the Fed to cut rates soon. Mortgage lenders often adjust their rates before the Fed's actual announcement.
  • Signs of a Cooling Economy: The weaker economic data suggests that the Fed might be more likely to cut rates to stimulate growth.
  • Declining Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has been trending downward in anticipation of Fed cuts.

The 10-year Treasury yield is right around 4.070%, which is approaching its lowest level since October 2024. It currently looks like the market also expects additional rate cuts before the end of the year.

What This Means for You

So, how does all of this affect you?

  • For Current Buyers: The recent drop in mortgage rates could be a good opportunity to lock in a lower rate. However, keep in mind that rates could potentially fall even further if the Fed continues to cut rates.
  • For Refinancers: If you have a mortgage rate above 7%, now might be a good time to explore your refinancing options. The current environment is the most favorable we've seen in a while.
  • For Investors: The bond market is anticipating a continued easing of monetary policy. Keep an eye on economic data to see if it supports the expectation of further rate cuts.

Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence

Navigating the world of mortgage rates can feel like trying to predict the weather. I've gone through the ups and downs of the market, and I know how stressful it can be.

The bottom line is this: Stay informed, do your research, and don't be afraid to ask questions. Talk to a financial advisor or a mortgage professional to get personalized advice based on your specific situation.

While rates jumped 10 basis points, it's crucial to look at the bigger picture. The recent slide in rates presents a potential window for both buyers and those looking to refinance.

Remember, whether you're buying a home or looking to refinance, understanding the factors that influence mortgage rates can help you make informed decisions and achieve your financial goals.

Maximize Your Mortgage Decisions in 2025

Thinking about whether to refinance now? Timing is critical, and having the right strategy can save you thousands over the life of your loan.

Norada's team can guide you through current market dynamics and help you position your investments wisely—whether you're looking to reduce rates, pull out equity, or expand your portfolio.

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Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale

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This news likely brings a smile to the faces of many house hunters: seven major cities have officially transitioned into buyer-friendly housing markets in 2025, a significant shift that gives ordinary folks more power when it comes to purchasing a home. If you're looking to buy, this means you might finally have the upper hand after a long period where sellers called all the shots.

For years, we've been talking about how tough it is to buy a house. Prices were through the roof, bidding wars were common, and you had to act lightning fast. But something has changed. The latest data from Realtor.com shows that the national housing market is finally finding a more balanced footing, with a five-month supply of homes for sale. This is the first summer in nine years that the market has hit this level of equilibrium.

7 Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets in 2025 With Abundant Homes for Sale

Understanding the “Months of Supply”

To really get why this news is important, we need to understand what “months of supply” means. Think of it like this: it's how long it would take to sell every single house currently listed on the market if no new homes were added and sales continued at the same speed.

  • Less than 4 months of supply: This is a seller's market. Sellers are in the driver's seat. Homes sell quickly, often with multiple offers, and prices tend to go up.
  • 4 to 6 months of supply: This is a balanced market. Both buyers and sellers have a decent amount of say. It’s not a free-for-all, but there are opportunities for negotiation from both sides.
  • More than 6 months of supply: This is a buyer's market. Buyers have more choices, more time to make decisions, and a better chance of negotiating prices and terms.

The fact that the national supply has reached five months means we're officially heading into a more neutral zone. But as is often the case with real estate, the big picture doesn't tell the whole story. When we zoom in on specific cities, a much more interesting and complex picture emerges.

Where Buyers Are Winning: The Top Buyer's Markets

While the national trend is encouraging, seven big cities are now firmly in buyer's market territory, meaning they have at least six months of supply. This is where house hunters have the most leverage, though no two markets are exactly alike.

Let's take a closer look at the cities leading this shift:

1. Miami, Florida: Nearly 10 Months of Supply

Miami takes the crown as the city with the highest months of supply among the top 50 metros, boasting nearly 10 months. This means it would take close to ten months to sell everything currently listed at the current sales pace.

Back in June, when this data was collected, the median list price was around $510,000, which was actually down 4.7% from the previous year. And the number of homes available for sale had a big jump of 35% compared to the year before. Homes were also taking longer to sell, with typical listings sitting on the market 15 days longer than the year prior. By August, this trend continued, with median prices dipping slightly and homes taking even longer to find a buyer.

Now, I've been watching the Miami market for a while, and it's always been a bit of a beast. Even with these buyer-friendly numbers, it’s important to understand what’s really going on. You see, some folks, like local real estate agent Ana Bozovic, argue that calling Miami a blanket “buyer's market” isn't the whole truth. She points out that while certain types of homes, like older condos under $500,000, might offer buyers more room to negotiate, other segments are still quite hot.

For instance, she says that single-family homes under $500,000 are almost “extinct” in Miami. So, if you're looking for one of those, you won't have much negotiating power. However, in the sub-$500,000 condo market, buyers might find more opportunities, partly because of new rules that require higher reserves for condos. This really highlights my own experience: real estate is never one-size-fits-all. You've got to know the nitty-gritty of the specific neighborhood and the type of property you're interested in.

2. Austin, Texas: Close to 8 Months of Supply

Austin, a city that experienced incredible growth during the pandemic, is now the second-biggest buyer's market. In June, it had 7.7 months of supply. This means the frenzy has cooled down, and there are significantly more homes on the market than buyers eager to snatch them up at any price.

In Austin, nearly 33% of all listed homes had price cuts in June, with the median listing price dropping by 4.5% to about $524,950. That's a huge number, meaning roughly one out of every three homes for sale came with a discount. The number of available homes also saw a massive increase, nearly 70% higher than pre-pandemic levels. By August, the typical price was just under $500,000, and that high percentage of price reductions continued.

Austin is relatively new to this buyer's market status, only crossing that six-month supply mark in June. This rapid shift is a clear indicator of how quickly market dynamics can change.

3. Orlando, Florida: 6.9 Months of Supply

Another major city in Florida, Orlando, also found itself in buyer's market territory with 6.9 months of supply in June. This aligns with the cooling trends seen in the housing market of the city famous for its theme parks.

In June, the median listing price in Orlando was $429,473, down 3.4% from the previous year. The inventory of homes for sale rose by nearly 34% year-over-year, while the pace of sales slowed. By August, prices dipped even further to $422,694, and homes were staying on the market, on average, 14 days longer. Orlando has been in a buyer's market since January, which shows a sustained shift rather than a temporary blip.

As Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel correctly points out, markets like Miami, Austin, and Orlando have been moving towards buyer-friendly conditions for a while. He notes that the rise in inventory, longer times on market, and increased price reductions are clearly visible in these areas, as well as in much of the South and West of the country. He anticipates these trends might continue, making the upcoming fall season a good time for buyers who are patient and have their finances in order.

Four More Cities Joining the Buyer's Market Club

Beyond these top three, four other major cities are also experiencing conditions that favor buyers:

  • New York City, New York: 6.7 months of supply. This might surprise some folks, considering New York's reputation for high prices and a historically tight market. However, Krimmel points out that there are signs of softness beneath the surface. Unlike other parts of the Northeast, New York hasn't seen price surges, and the price per square foot has actually decreased year-over-year recently.
  • Jacksonville, Florida: 6.3 months of supply.
  • Tampa, Florida: 6.3 months of supply.
  • Riverside, California: 6.1 months of supply.

The inclusion of New York City in this list is particularly interesting. It shows that even in traditionally strong seller's markets, economic shifts and changing buyer behavior can create opportunities.

Why Are Sellers Listing and Then Delisting?

This shift to buyer's markets isn't just about more homes being available; it's also about what sellers are doing—or not doing—with their properties. The national housing market saw something of a standstill this summer. With affordability still a concern and mortgage rates remaining elevated, many buyers are hesitant.

This has led to a couple of key behaviors from sellers:

  • Price Reductions: Over a quarter of homes for sale across the U.S. had a price cut in August. This is up slightly from the previous year, with buyers in the South and West most likely to find discounted properties.
  • Delistings: Frustrated by the lack of buyer interest at their asking prices, some sellers are simply taking their homes off the market. Instead of lowering prices, they're choosing to wait for conditions to improve. In July, the number of delisted homes nationwide jumped a significant 57% compared to the year before. Cities like Miami, Phoenix, Riverside, and Tucson saw the most homes being pulled from the market.

This delisting trend is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reduces the overall supply, which could eventually put upward pressure on prices. However, for now, it signals that sellers are either unwilling or unable to drop their prices to match current market realities, leading to a stalemate that buyers can often exploit for better deals.

Expert Opinions and My Take

As someone who has followed the housing market for years, I've seen my fair share of cycles. What I'm observing now is a necessary course correction. The post-pandemic boom was driven by a unique set of circumstances – ultra-low interest rates and a surge in demand as people looked for more space. Now, we're seeing a return to more sustainable market conditions.

The data from Realtor.com is crucial because it uses actual sales figures and inventory levels. It’s not just speculation; it’s based on what’s happening on the ground. This shift to buyer's markets in these seven cities is a tangible sign that buyers have more breathing room.

My own experience tells me that when inventory rises and homes sit longer, buyers gain significant negotiation power. They can often ask for concessions, negotiate on price, and avoid the stressful bidding wars that have characterized the market recently. However, as the Miami example shows, informed buyers are the ones who will win. Understanding the nuances of specific neighborhoods and property types is key. Just because a city is labeled a buyer's market doesn't mean every single home is a bargain.

The rise in delistings is also a strong indicator of seller sentiment. When sellers start delisting rather than discounting, it shows how much they are anchoring to previous sale prices or their own perceived value, which may no longer align with what buyers are willing or able to pay. This can, paradoxically, create more opportunities for those buyers who are still actively searching, as they might encounter less competition in the immediate term.

For aspiring homeowners, this is a moment to be strategic. Do your homework on the specific metro areas that interest you. Look at the inventory levels, the typical time on market, and recent price trends. Don't be afraid to negotiate. The days of accepting asking price without question might be fading, at least in these seven cities.

We're moving towards a more balanced housing market overall, but these seven cities are leading the charge toward buyer-friendliness. It's a great time to be a buyer, provided you’re prepared and informed. The market is signaling a change, and those who pay attention will be best positioned to take advantage of it.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 14, 2025: Slight Uptick in Purchase Rates, Refi Rates Drop

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As of September 14, 2025, mortgage rates have shown a mixed but generally optimistic trend. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.54%, slightly higher than last week's 6.50%, indicating a slight uptick in rates. Meanwhile, refinance rates for the same term have decreased slightly to 6.73% from 6.75%, offering some relief to current homeowners looking to refinance. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to 5.64%, and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remain around 7% or higher.

This current rate environment reflects a delicate balance influenced heavily by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softening labor market, and moving Treasury yields.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 14, 2025: Slight Uptick in Purchase Rates, Refinance Rates Drop

Key Takeaways

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased slightly to 6.54% as of September 14, 2025.
  • 30-year refinance rates dropped modestly to 6.73%, presenting refinancing opportunities.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage and refinance rates show small increases and decreases respectively, at 5.64% and 5.51%.
  • Labor market softness (4.3% unemployment) and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving market expectations.
  • Mortgage rates remain above 6%, with forecasts suggesting a stay above this mark until mid-2026.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates are relatively high, with the 5-year ARM averaging 7.32%.

Current Mortgage Rate Overview — September 14, 2025

Mortgage rates, particularly the 30-year fixed, are a critical indicator for homebuyers and the housing market. According to Zillow, the latest rates are as follows:

Loan Type Current Rate Change (Week-over-Week) APR APR Change
30-Year Fixed 6.54% +0.04% 7.04% +0.11%
20-Year Fixed 6.22% +0.10% 6.54% +0.04%
15-Year Fixed 5.64% +0.07% 5.86% +0.02%
10-Year Fixed 5.79% No change 6.09% No change
7-Year ARM 6.38% -0.55% 7.43% -0.23%
5-Year ARM 7.32% +0.56% 7.92% +0.38%

Government Loan Rates

Loan Type Current Rate Change (Week-over-Week) APR APR Change
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.25% +1.37% 8.28% +1.40%
VA 30-Year Fixed 5.89% -0.05% 6.11% -0.04%
FHA 15-Year Fixed 5.31% -0.07% 6.27% -0.07%
VA 15-Year Fixed 5.57% No change 5.92% +0.02%

Source: Zillow

Refinance Rates — Slight Dip Offers Homeowners a Break

Refinancing has become increasingly attractive with the small dip in mortgage refinancing rates. On September 14, 2025:

Refinance Term Current Rate Change (Week-over-Week)
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.73% -0.05%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.51% -0.02%
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.66% +0.03%

This decline is notable because it suggests an expanding window for homeowners to take advantage of lower costs, especially after periods of high refinancing rates above 7%.

Context: Why Are Mortgage Rates What They Are Today?

Understanding today’s mortgage rates requires examining the economic backdrop and Federal Reserve policies influencing them.

The Federal Reserve and Its Impact

  1. Previous Rate Hikes and Current Pause: Between 2022 and mid-2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to tackle inflation. This period pushed mortgage rates to 20-year highs (around 6.6% to 6.8%). Since then, the Fed paused rate hikes for several meetings in 2025, with internal debates on when to cut next.
  2. Labor Market Influences: The August 2025 jobs report highlighted a slowdown: unemployment rose to 4.3%, and only 22,000 new jobs were added. This cooling labor market is a key signal supporting the prospect of rate cuts.
  3. Anticipated Rate Cuts: Market expectations price in a 91% chance of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 16-17, 2025 meeting. Two additional rate cuts are anticipated by year-end, which could drive mortgage rates further down, possibly approaching or dipping slightly below 6%.
  4. Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at about 4.07%, near its lowest since October 2024. Declining yields translate into lower mortgage rates.

Forecasts and Expert Opinions on Mortgage Rates

How Low Will Rates Go?

Forecast Source 2025 H2 Rate Forecast 2026 Rate Forecast Notes
National Association of REALTORS® 6.4% 6.1% Rates seen as a “magic bullet” for market
Realtor.com ~6.4% by year-end N/A Slow easing expected
Fannie Mae 6.5% (year-end) 6.1% Modest upward revisions
Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 6.7% (year-end) 6.5% Volatile markets affect spreads

These forecasts suggest mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually but remain above 6% through at least mid-2026. This view aligns with a cautious optimism fueled by economic data and Fed policy signals.

The Economic Forces Behind Rate Movements

Mortgage rates have not just moved on a whim; their pendulum swings reflect multiple intertwined factors:

  • Inflation Trends: Inflation cooling from very high levels (core PCE inflation about 2.7%) helps ease interest rate pressure.
  • Labor Markets: As job growth slows, the pressure on wages and inflation decreases, supporting rate cuts.
  • Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Fed’s balancing act between slowing inflation and avoiding economic contraction guides mortgage rate trajectories.
  • Global Economic Factors: International market movements and Treasury supply affect Treasury yields, impacting mortgage rates.

Practical Example: How Rate Changes Affect Monthly Payments

Let's consider a $300,000 mortgage for a new home purchase.

Mortgage Rate Monthly Payment (Principal & Interest) Difference in Payment
6.54% (Current) $1,911 Baseline
6.00% (Projected) $1,799 $112 savings per month
7.00% (High) $1,995 $84 extra per month

Note: Assumes a 30-year fixed-rate loan, without taxes or insurance.

The example shows how even a half-percent drop in mortgage rates can save homeowners hundreds over a year, making buying or refinancing decisions financially impactful.

Final Thoughts on Today's Mortgage Rates

Today's mortgage rate environment reflects a market carefully interpreting economic signals and forecasting Federal Reserve moves. Slight increases in purchase mortgage rates contrast with slight decreases in refinance rates, creating an interesting dynamic for potential homebuyers and existing property owners. The labor market’s cooling trend, the bond market’s reaction, and the Fed's anticipated actions all feed into this delicate balance.

While rates seem likely to stay above 6% for most of the near future, the promise of cuts may gradually push rates downward. Still, personal circumstances—like creditworthiness and loan specifics—will significantly influence individual mortgage offers.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

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Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Goes Down to 6.73%

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Are you thinking about refinancing your home? Well, you're in luck! As of today, September 14, 2025, the national average for a 30-year fixed refinance rate has dipped, falling by 5 basis points to 6.73%. This is according to the latest data from Zillow. A drop like this could mean significant savings for homeowners, so let's dive into what's driving this change and what it means for you.

Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Drops by 5 Basis Points

I know, I know. 5 basis points doesn’t sound like much. That’s only .05%! But in the world of mortgages, every little bit counts. Over the life of a 30-year loan, even a small change in the interest rate can save you thousands of dollars. More importantly, it signals a broader trend in the market. When I see a drop like this, I start to look at why it's happening. It often means the overall economic environment is shifting, which can lead to further rate decreases in the future.

Refinance Rates Snapshot (September 14, 2025)

To give you a clearer picture, here's a quick breakdown of current refinance rates across different loan terms:

  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.73% (Down 5 basis points)
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.51% (Down 2 basis points)
  • 5-Year ARM: 7.66% (Up 3 basis points)

What's Causing Mortgage Rates to Fall? Blame it on the Fed (in a Good Way!)

The biggest player influencing mortgage rates is the Federal Reserve. Think of them as the conductors of the economic orchestra. By adjusting monetary policy, they heavily guide where interest rates go.

The Fed's Recent Actions

The Fed spent the past couple of years aggressively fighting inflation, raising interest rates multiple times. This led to mortgage rates skyrocketing, putting a damper on the housing market. However, the tide has started to turn.

Let’s recap:

  • 2021-2023: The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates aggressively to counter inflation.
  • Late 2024: The Fed shifted gears, cutting rates three times!
  • 2025: The Fed has been carefully watching the economy, remaining hesitant to cut rates until recently.

The Catalyst: A Cooler Economy and Cooling Inflation

The latest economic data is what has finally spurred the Fed into taking action. The August jobs report showed a slowdown, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and significantly less job growth than projected. Simultaneously, inflation (although still above target) has cooled down to around 2.7%.

Three Key Factors Behind the Drop

Even before the Fed officially cuts rates, several factors are already pushing mortgage rates downward:

  1. Anticipated Fed Rate Cut: The market is widely expecting a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Lenders often adjust their rates before the Fed makes its formal announcement.
  2. Signs of a Cooler Economy: As mentioned previously, slower job growth and softening inflation signal a weakening economy, which generally leads to lower rates.
  3. Falling Treasury Yields: This is the most direct connection and is the primary reason for changes in the interest rates. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has decreased significantly.
    • Current 10-Year Treasury Yield (September 8, 2025): 4.08%
    • Trend: Down 0.21 points over the past month.

Opportunities for Homeowners

The decline in mortgage rates creates opportunities for both current buyers and those looking to refinance. If you locked in a mortgage rate when rates were higher, this may be the perfect opportunity to refinance, depending on your personal circumstances.

When is the Best Time to Refinance? There is no universal perfect time to refinance. This would depend on a lot of factors, including but not limited to:

  • Current interest rates
  • How long you plan to stay in your home
  • Closing costs associated with refinancing

What's Next? Watching the Fed and the Economy

The big event to watch is the Fed's September 16-17 meeting. Not only will they likely cut rates, but they will also release updated economic projections. This will give us clues about the future, as well as what pace of future easing is expected for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

The next important date is the December meeting, which is likely an opportunity for the Fed to make a second rate cut of 2025.

What Does This Mean for You?

  • Current Buyers: This is a good time to lock in a rate before any potential volatility from the Fed's announcement.
  • Refinancers: Have your financial documents ready to explore refinancing! The environment is about as favorable as it's been in nearly a year. I always tell my clients to get pre-approved so you are ready to act when the opportunity presents itself.
  • Investors: The market has already priced in the first cut. Keep an eye on the Fed's forward guidance to gauge their appetite for continued rate cuts.

Important Considerations

While the drop in mortgage rates is encouraging, it's important to remember that rates are still higher than the record lows of 2020-2021. The specific rate you receive will depend on your individual financial circumstances, including your credit score, down payment, and debt-to-income ratio.

My Personal Perspective

As someone who has been watching the housing market for years, I believe this is a positive step in the right direction. While I can't predict the future, I'm optimistic that we'll see further rate declines as the economy continues to cool and the Fed becomes more comfortable easing monetary policy. This could finally provide some much-needed relief for both buyers and homeowners.

Maximize Your Mortgage Decisions in 2025

Thinking about whether to refinance now? Timing is critical, and having the right strategy can save you thousands over the life of your loan.

Norada's team can guide you through current market dynamics and help you position your investments wisely—whether you're looking to reduce rates, pull out equity, or expand your portfolio.

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Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points

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Are you watching mortgage rates like a hawk? You're not alone! If you're looking to refinance, you'll want to know that the national average for a 30-year fixed refinance rate has inched up slightly. As of Saturday, September 13, 2025, the rate climbed 7 basis points, rising from 6.68% to 6.75%, according to the latest data from Zillow.

Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points

Okay, so 7 basis points might not sound like a lot, but it's important to stay informed, especially when you're dealing with a big financial decision like refinancing your home. The 30-year fixed refinance rate on September 13, 2025, matched the previous week's average, holding steady at 6.75%.

Here's a quick rundown of what other refinance rates are doing:

  • 15-year fixed refinance rate: Increased by 6 basis points to 5.51%.
  • 5-year ARM refinance rate: Rose a more significant 33 basis points to 7.70%.

Is Refinancing Still a Good Idea? Navigating the Fed's Impact

Now, the big question: with these small increases, is it still worth refinancing? That's a loaded question and it really depends on your individual situation. However, to get a clearer picture, let's dive into the bigger forces at play, particularly the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy.

The Fed's Role: A Look Back and a Glimpse Ahead

Think of the Fed as the steering wheel of the economy. Their decisions on interest rates affect everything, from how much you pay for groceries to the interest rate on your mortgage. Here's a quick recap of what they've been up to:

  • Pandemic Era (2020-2021): Rates were super low because the Fed was buying bonds to boost the economy.
  • Rate Hike Frenzy (2022-2023): To fight inflation, the Fed aggressively raised rates by a total of 5.25 percentage points. This sent mortgage rates soaring to 20-year highs!
  • The Pivot to Cuts (Late 2024): After holding rates steady for over a year, the Fed finally started cutting rates. There were three cuts in late 2024, reducing the federal funds rate by 1 percentage point to 4.25%-4.5%.
  • 2025: The Pause and the Impending Action: For five consecutive meetings in 2025 (through July 30), the Fed kept rates unchanged. But there's been internal debate lately, with some members pushing for immediate cuts to stimulate a slowing economy.

Why Mortgage Rates Are (Still) Falling Now Despite the Recent Increase

Good news! Even with today's small rate bump, the overall trend leans towards lower mortgage rates. Here's why:

  1. Anticipated Fed Rate Cut: The market is expecting a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Lenders often adjust rates before the official announcement.
  2. Signs of a Weaker Economy: Recent data shows the economy is slowing down. The August 2025 jobs report was particularly weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and only 22,000 jobs added.
  3. Falling Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. As investors seek safety in bonds, the yield falls. As of September 8, 2025, the yield was at 4.08%, a significant drop of 0.21 points in the past month.
    • Current Yield: 4.08% (as of September 8, 2025)
    • Trend: Decrease of 0.21 points over the past month

Mortgage Rate Impact: What Does This Mean for You?

The expected Fed action is already having a positive ripple effect:

  • Lower mortgage and refinance rates.
  • Potential for further decreases if the Fed cuts rates more than expected.
  • A window of opportunity for homeowners with rates above 7% to consider refinancing.

Important Note: Even with the recent drop, it’s worth stating that mortgage rates are still higher than the rock-bottom levels we saw in 2020-2021. Your specific rate will depend on your credit score, down payment, and debt-to-income ratio.

The September Decision: What to Watch For

Keep your eyes peeled for the September 16-17 meeting as it will likely involve a rate cut. The focus will be on the Fed's updated economic projections, known as the “dot plot”, for hints about future rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. It is expected that the December meeting will likely provide the Fed’s second 2025 cut opportunity.

What This Means for Different People

Current Buyers: This dip is an opportunity for you! Securing your rate now might protect you from any uncertainty after the Fed's announcement. Refinancers: Get your paperwork ready, as these conditions mark the most favorable opportunity in close to a year to explore refinancing options. Investors: Given that the market is factoring in the initial cut already, future actions hinge on the Fed's inclination to persist with rate reductions should the economy maintain its cooling trajectory.

My Two Cents: Don't Wait Forever!

In my opinion, while it's tempting to wait for rates to drop even further, remember that nobody has a crystal ball. The economy can change quickly, and rates could easily turn around. If refinancing makes sense for you now, it might be worth locking in a rate sooner rather than later.

Maximize Your Mortgage Decisions in 2025

Thinking about whether to refinance now? Timing is critical, and having the right strategy can save you thousands over the life of your loan.

Norada's team can guide you through current market dynamics and help you position your investments wisely—whether you're looking to reduce rates, pull out equity, or expand your portfolio.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

Will Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% This Month: September 2025 Forecast

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Here’s the headline you’ve been waiting for: It looks like 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering on the edge, with a real shot at dipping below 6% before September 2025 is out. As of September 13, 2025, we’re seeing rates around 6.1% to 6.3%, a slight easing from earlier in the month, and the winds of change are blowing. The Federal Reserve's recent signals about potential rate cuts are definitely making lenders adjust their numbers, but it’s not a done deal just yet. The housing market is always a bit of a puzzle, and mortgage rates are a big piece of that puzzle.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% This Month: September 2025 Forecast

For many of us, that 6% mark isn't just a number; it's a gateway. It can mean the difference between affording that perfect starter home or having to keep renting, between finally making that move or waiting even longer. I’ve spent a lot of time digging into the economic reports, talking to folks who make their living in finance, and looking at how things have played out in the past, and I feel pretty good about where we’re headed. But, as always, there are some twists and turns to keep an eye on.

The Current Rate Situation: Closer Than You Think

Right now, if you're looking at a 30-year mortgage, you're likely seeing rates in that 6.1% to 6.3% range. This is according to the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac, a highly respected source for this kind of information. It’s a little lower than what we saw at the beginning of September, which is encouraging, but still not quite under 6%. It’s a bit like watching a runner approach the finish line – they’re close, but we need that final push.

It’s not just the big 30-year loans that are inching down. If you’re considering a 15-year fixed mortgage, rates are even better, around 5.45%. And for those looking at adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), like a 5/1 ARM, the starting rates are about 5.75%. These numbers are a snapshot of a market that’s trying to balance two big forces: inflation that’s starting to cool down and an economy that’s still pretty strong.

The 10-year Treasury yield is a big signal for mortgage rates, and right now it’s sitting around 3.82%. That’s down from where it was just last month, but not low enough to push mortgages firmly below 6%. Think of it this way: the 10-year Treasury is like the engine for mortgage rates, and while it’s idling nicely, it’s not quite revving at the speed we need to break that 6% barrier.

I’ve put together a little table to show you how things have been moving over the last month. It really highlights the slow but steady progress:

Date Range 30-Year Fixed Rate 15-Year Fixed Rate 10-Year Treasury Yield
Aug 15-31, 2025 6.35% 5.65% 4.05%
Sep 1-7, 2025 6.25% 5.55% 3.95%
Sep 8-13, 2025 6.15% 5.45% 3.82%

Source: Based on figures from Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

You can see the trend – rates are gently moving down. But it's good to remember that these numbers can change quite a bit day-to-day, often depending on the latest economic news.

What’s Pushing Rates Down (and What Could Stop Them)

So, what’s really making these rates tick down, and what might throw a wrench in the works? It’s all about a few key players in the economy.

1. The Federal Reserve is Key

The biggest event on the horizon is the Federal Reserve’s meeting, happening on September 17-18. This is where they decide what to do with the federal funds rate, which influences all other interest rates. They’ve kept it steady at 5.25-5.50% for a while now. But, there's a good chance they’ll announce a quarter-point (25 basis points) cut. If that happens, it could easily shave off 0.10% to 0.20% from mortgage rates pretty quickly.

However, if the upcoming economic reports show that inflation is hotter than we expect, or if wages are climbing too fast, the Fed might decide to hold off on cutting rates. That would likely keep mortgage rates stuck above 6%. Some smart people at Fannie Mae think we could see rates hitting 5.9% by the end of the year, which would mean dipping below 6% this month is definitely on the table if the Fed acts. But others, like those at the MBA, warn that if inflation in the service sector stays stubborn, we might have to wait until the last few months of the year for that sub-6% rate.

2. Inflation and Jobs: A Balancing Act

Good news on the inflation front: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.5% in August. That’s getting closer to the Fed’s goal of 2%, and it’s a big reason why people are hopeful for rate cuts. Lower inflation generally means less pressure on long-term investments, which helps keep mortgage rates down.

But then you look at the job market. The August jobs report showed that the economy added 142,000 new jobs, which was more than economists had predicted. And the unemployment rate stayed put at 4.2%. A strong job market is a sign that the economy is doing well, which can sometimes lead to higher interest rates. It’s a bit of a tug-of-war.

We also can't forget about what's happening in the world beyond our borders. Things like ongoing conflicts in the Middle East or trade tensions can affect oil prices, which in turn can impact inflation. If oil prices jump, that could push inflation up again, and that might make the Fed think twice about cutting rates or could even cause rates to go back up.

3. Housing Supply and Buyer Demand

Here’s another piece of the puzzle: the number of homes for sale. It’s gone up about 15% compared to last year, meaning there are more options out there for buyers. This usually helps to keep home prices from soaring, but it hasn't been quite enough to make lenders drastically lower mortgage rates.

Affordability is still a big hurdle. With rates around 6.15%, the monthly payment for a $400,000 loan is about $2,440 (just for the loan principal and interest). That’s a good chunk more than it was a few years ago. Because of this, a lot of people who locked in rates below 4% are happy where they are and aren’t selling their homes. This lack of existing homeowners moving can actually keep the overall supply of homes from growing as much as it could, which indirectly supports higher rates.

And it's worth mentioning that what happens in global bond markets can have an effect too. When investors around the world are buying up U.S. government bonds, it can help keep interest rates here more stable.

Looking Back to See Forward: What History Teaches Us

To get a better idea of whether rates will fall below 6% this September, it helps to look at how they’ve behaved in the past. Mortgage rates hit their peak late last year, around 7.8%, after the Fed started raising rates to fight inflation. Since then, they’ve come down by about 1.65%. We did briefly see rates dip below 6% in early 2023, but they didn't stay there for long.

Imagine a graph of 30-year mortgage rates from 2020 to today. You’d see a sharp drop in 2020 when the pandemic hit and stimulus money was flowing, bringing rates down to incredibly low levels (around 2.65%). Then, as inflation became a problem, rates started climbing, jumping significantly in early 2022 when the Fed began its hiking cycle. Since then, we’ve seen them fluctuate, with some dips but generally staying above 6%.

Here’s a simple look at how annual average rates have changed and why:

Year Average 30-Year Rate Key Event Impact on Housing Starts
2020 3.11% Pandemic stimulus Increased (Housing Boom)
2022 5.34% Inflation surge, Fed hikes begin Decreased (Market Slowdown)
2023 6.81% Peak Fed rate hikes Further Decrease (Weak Market)
2024 6.45% Hints of Fed rate cuts Stabilized
2025 (YTD) 6.25% Gradual rate easing Modest Increase

Source: Data compiled from Freddie Mac.

History tells us that these big drops often happen when the Fed makes a move, and it might take a few of those moves for rates to consistently stay below 6%. So, patience is definitely a virtue here.

What the Experts Are Saying: A Cloudy but Hopeful Forecast

When you poll economists, most are leaning towards a positive outlook, but there’s still some disagreement. Some, like Wells Fargo, are predicting we’ll see rates dip to 5.95% by the end of September, especially if the Fed cuts rates. Others, like JPMorgan, are a bit more cautious, keeping their forecast around 6.10% because they see wages rising steadily.

If you average the predictions from about 20 different economists, they’re generally expecting mortgage rates to be around 6.05% by the end of September. This means it’s really a coin-toss whether we break that 6% mark.

Here’s how you could break it down into different possibilities:

  • Things Go Well (70% Chance): The Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, and inflation continues to cool down to about 2.3%. In this scenario, we could see rates drop as low as 5.85%.
  • Things Stay About the Same (20% Chance): The Fed holds off on cutting rates, and the economy remains steady—rates might just stay put around 6.10%.
  • Things Get Worse (10% Chance): The jobs report is stronger than expected, or inflation ticks back up. This could push rates higher, maybe to 6.35%.

For those considering ARMs right now, they offer a way to get a lower initial rate (about 0.4% less than fixed rates), but remember that those rates can change after the initial period.

What This Means for You: Buyers, Sellers, and Beyond

If mortgage rates do drop below 6%, it’s not just good news for some people – it can have a ripple effect.

  • Homebuyers: If rates fall, expect more people to start looking for homes. The MBA predicts a 5-7% jump in mortgage applications. Be ready for more competition! Also, remember to budget for closing costs, which can be 2-5% of the loan amount. Using tools that help you calculate affordability can show you exactly how much a small drop in rates can save you each month – even a 0.15% decrease on a $300,000 loan could save you around $30 a month.
  • Home Sellers: With more buyers potentially entering the market, you might have an advantage. Pricing your home just a little below comparable properties could help you attract those buyers who are really sensitive to mortgage rates.
  • Those Looking to Refinance: If your current mortgage rate is higher than what’s available, a drop below 6% could make refinancing a smart move. It could save many homeowners a significant amount of money each month. Freddie Mac suggests that if rates drop by half a percent, a lot more people would become eligible to refinance.
  • Investors: People looking to invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are tied to housing might see better returns if rates ease.

On a bigger scale, when mortgage rates drop, it tends to help people who have larger mortgages more than those with smaller ones. This can sometimes widen the gap between higher and lower-income households. Policymakers are looking at ways to help more people benefit, like offering more money for down payments.

The Bottom Line: A Real Chance for a Break

So, back to the big question: will mortgage rates drop below 6% in September 2025? My take, after looking at all the data and listening to the experts, is that it's definitely possible and perhaps even likely. The momentum is leaning towards lower rates, especially if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates. It’s not a guaranteed outcome, but the conditions are looking favorable.

The best advice I can give you is to stay informed. Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s announcements and the latest economic reports. If you’re thinking about buying a home or refinancing, be ready to act if the rates dip into that desirable sub-6% range. In these times of economic change, being prepared and flexible is your strongest asset. The door to homeownership is opening wider, and staying informed will help you walk through it.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

Get Started Now

Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 13, 2025: 30-Year FRM Drops by 6 Basis Points

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Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest point in almost a year, offering a positive trend for homebuyers and those looking to refinance. As of Today, on September 13, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.44%, down from 6.50% the previous week, while the 15-year fixed rate declined to 5.51%. Refinance rates have also decreased noticeably, with the 30-year fixed refinance average dropping to 6.66%. This decrease is mainly driven by expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut, a cooling labor market, and falling Treasury yields.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 13, 2025: 30-Year FRM Drops by 6 Basis Points

Key Takeaways

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.44%, the lowest in nearly a year, signaling relief for borrowers.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rate currently at 5.51%, also trending downwards.
  • 30-year fixed refinance rate decreased to 6.66%, marking a significant opportunity for homeowners.
  • Falling rates are influenced by the expected Fed rate cut in September 2025 and weakening job market data.
  • Federal Reserve decisions and Treasury yields remain the main influencers of mortgage rate trends.
  • Experts predict that mortgage rates will likely remain above 6% through 2025 but may drop to around 6.1% in 2026.
  • Higher refinance activity, with nearly half of mortgage applications related to refinancing.

Mortgage rates on September 13, 2025 are declining but remain historically higher than the ultra-low rates seen in previous years. According to Zillow data:

Loan Type Rate Weekly Change APR Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed 6.44% ↓ 0.06% 6.96% ↑ 0.03%
20-Year Fixed 6.22% ↑ 0.10% 6.54% ↑ 0.04%
15-Year Fixed 5.51% ↓ 0.05% 5.86% ↑ 0.02%
10-Year Fixed 5.79% No Change 6.09% No Change
7-Year ARM 6.38% ↓ 0.55% 7.43% ↓ 0.23%
5-Year ARM 7.20% ↑ 0.44% 7.89% ↑ 0.35%

Source: Zillow – Mortgage Rates September 13, 2025

Government loan rates are somewhat lower, offering alternatives for qualifying borrowers:

Government Loan Type Rate Weekly Change APR Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed FHA 5.63% ↓ 0.25% 6.64% ↓ 0.25%
30-Year Fixed VA 5.91% ↓ 0.03% 6.13% ↓ 0.02%
15-Year Fixed FHA 5.31% ↓ 0.07% 6.27% ↓ 0.07%
15-Year Fixed VA 5.63% ↑ 0.05% 5.98% ↑ 0.08%

What’s Happening With Refinance Rates?

Refinancing rates have also moved down, which is welcoming news to many homeowners looking to reduce monthly payments or cash out equity on better terms than earlier in 2025. Here is the latest data:

Refinance Loan Type Rate Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.66% ↓ 0.02%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.52% ↑ 0.07%
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.66% ↑ 0.29%

The 30-year fixed refinance rate decrease from 6.75% last week to 6.66% marks the first solid break in a long period of high refinancing costs. The share of market mortgage applications for refinancing reached nearly 47%, a peak since October of the previous year, indicating strong homeowner interest fueled by these lowered rates.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Falling Now? The Fed, Labor Market, and Treasuries

Three main factors explain this recent drop in mortgage and refinance rates:

1. The Federal Reserve’s Expected Rate Cut in September 2025

Markets are pricing in a high likelihood (around 91%) of a quarter-percentage-point cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting. This is largely a reaction to signs of economic slowdown:

  • The Federal Reserve had previously raised rates aggressively to combat inflation but has now paused multiple times and seems poised to begin easing.
  • Internal Fed dissent highlights a rift, with some members pushing for earlier rate cuts to support slowing growth.

2. Cooling Jobs Market

New employment data revealed:

  • The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.
  • Only 22,000 new jobs were added, a stark slowdown compared to earlier months.

This signals a cooling labor market, reducing inflation pressure and nudging the Fed toward stimulus measures, including probable rate cuts.

3. Declining Treasury Yields

Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at 4.08% (as of early September 2025). Over the past month, this yield has dropped by 0.21 points as investors look for safer investments amid economic worries. As yields fall, mortgage rates typically decline as well.

The Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates: Context and Outlook

The Fed’s monetary decisions since the pandemic have shaped mortgage trends:

  • 2021-2023: Pandemic bond purchases kept rates historically low until tapering started.
  • 2022-mid 2023: Aggressive rate hikes pushed mortgage rates to 20-year highs.
  • Late 2024: Fed pivoted, cutting rates three times, slowing the increase.
  • 2025: A steady pause in rate changes, with a notable division among Fed governors.

This Federal Reserve backdrop explains the current dynamic: mortgage rates are sensitive to Fed actions and market anticipation.

Forecasts for Mortgage Rates: What Experts Say

Industry forecasts expect mortgage rates will hover above 6% for the rest of 2025 but gradually ease:

Organization 2025 Year-end Forecast 2026 Forecast
National Association of REALTORS® Average 6.4% Dip to 6.1%
Fannie Mae End 2025: 6.5% 6.1%
Mortgage Bankers Association End 2025: 6.7% 6.5%
Realtor.com Around 6.4% by year-end Slight dip expected

These projections reaffirm that while rates have dropped recently, they remain elevated compared to the ultra-low rates during the COVID-19 pandemic era. This floor above 6% will likely persist due to inflation and economic uncertainties.

Practical Impact of Today's Mortgage and Refinance Rates

To understand what a 6.44% mortgage rate means today, consider this example:

  • Loan amount: $300,000
  • Term: 30-year fixed
  • Interest rate: 6.44%

Using a basic mortgage calculator, the monthly principal and interest payment is approximately $1,893 (not including taxes and insurance). If the rate had been 6.75% just a week ago, that payment would be about $1,946, a difference of $53 monthly — meaningful over the life of the loan.

For refinancing, homeowners who currently pay rates above 7% now have a chance to refinance into the mid-6% range, potentially saving hundreds of dollars per month depending on loan size and term.

Market Sentiment and Borrower Behavior

After months of mortgage rates stuck in the 6.6-6.8% range, this recent decline stimulates:

  • Increased interest from potential homebuyers weighing affordability.
  • Homeowners actively seeking refinancing options to reduce payments.
  • Lenders preparing for an uptick in mortgage applications ahead of the expected Fed rate cut.

However, affordability still remains a key challenge in many housing markets, especially where home prices are elevated. The reduction in rates may provide only partial relief.

The Role of Inflation and Broader Economic Conditions

Although inflation has cooled somewhat, core inflation measures remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, at approximately 2.7%. This persistence keeps the Federal Reserve cautious even as it plans to ease monetary policy.

Investors are closely watching:

  • Inflation data releases
  • Labor market reports
  • The Fed’s language on future rate adjustments

Because mortgage rates reflect the broader economic outlook, these factors are crucial for predicting near- and medium-term housing finance costs.

Summary Table: Mortgage and Refinance Rates As of September 13, 2025

Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change Notes
30-Year Fixed Mortgage 6.44% ↓ 0.06% Lowest in nearly a year
15-Year Fixed Mortgage 5.51% ↓ 0.05% Trending downward
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.66% ↓ 0.02% Significant drop
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.52% ↑ 0.07% Slight increase
5-Year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) 7.20% ↑ 0.44% Mixed movement

This detailed outlook helps borrowers understand the mortgage environment today and how recent economic shifts impact borrowing costs. The anticipated Federal Reserve action later this month could further influence these rates, making the current period an interesting one for both homebuyers and those looking to refinance.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

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Mortgage Rates Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by Fannie Mae

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If you're like me, you've probably been refreshing your screen for months, waiting for that magical headline announcing that mortgage rates are finally coming down in a big way. Well, the latest Fannie Mae mortgage rate predictions for 2025 and 2026 give us a clearer picture, and while it’s not the dramatic drop we all hoped for, it signals a slow and steady path toward relief.

Based on their August 2025 outlook, Fannie Mae forecasts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will end 2025 at 6.5% and continue its gradual decline to 6.1% by the end of 2026. This is a slight upward revision from their previous forecast, telling us the journey back to normalcy might take a little longer than expected.

Mortgage Rates Predictions 2025 and 2026 by Fannie Mae

The Official Numbers: What Fannie Mae is Forecasting

Let's get right to the heart of it. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is one of the most respected voices in the housing industry. When they speak, I listen. Their forecasts help shape how lenders, builders, and homebuyers think about the future.

Here's a breakdown of their latest predictions compared to their previous ones. I find that looking at the change is often more telling than just looking at the new number itself.

Metric New Forecast (August) Old Forecast (July) What This Tells Us
Mortgage Rate (End of 2025) 6.5% 6.4% The path down is a bit stickier than we thought.
Mortgage Rate (End of 2026) 6.1% 6.0% The trend is still downward, just at a slower pace.
Total Home Sales (2025) 4.74 million 4.85 million Higher rates continue to put a damper on sales activity.
Total Home Sales (2026) 5.23 million 5.35 million A recovery is still expected, but it's been pushed out slightly.

Seeing these numbers in a table makes one thing clear: the overall direction is positive, but the optimism has been tempered with a dose of reality. The theme here is “higher for longer.”

But Why the Change? Digging Into the “Why”

A forecast is only as good as the economic data behind it. So, why did Fannie Mae nudge their rate predictions up? It really boils down to two key factors that I watch like a hawk: inflation and economic growth.

The Stubborn Inflation Problem

You've felt it at the grocery store and the gas pump. Inflation has been the main villain in our economic story for the past couple of years. The Federal Reserve's primary weapon against it is raising interest rates.

  • Fannie Mae's CPI Forecast: They now expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, to be at 3.3% at the end of 2025.
  • Why it Matters: As long as inflation remains “sticky” and above the Fed's 2% target, the Fed has little reason to aggressively cut its own rates. And the Fed's rate is a major driver of mortgage rates. In my experience, you can't have truly low mortgage rates without having inflation firmly under control. This new CPI forecast suggests the fight isn't over yet.

A Slower-Growing Economy

The other piece of the puzzle is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the scorecard for our entire economy. Fannie Mae slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.1%. A slowing economy can sometimes lead to lower rates, but when paired with persistent inflation, it creates a tricky situation. It means the economy isn't growing fast enough to shake off inflation, forcing the Fed to keep its foot on the brake just a little longer.

What This Forecast Means for You

Numbers on a page are one thing, but what does a 6.5% mortgage rate in 2025 actually mean for your wallet and your plans?

For Hopeful Homebuyers

If you're waiting to buy a home, this news might feel a bit frustrating. The dream of a 5% rate in 2025 seems to be fading. However, let's add some perspective. A rate of 6.5% is still significantly better than the 7-8% peaks we've seen.

My advice? Don't just focus on the rate you can't control. Focus on what you can control:

  1. Your Credit Score: A higher score can get you a better rate, even in a high-rate environment.
  2. Your Down Payment: A larger down payment reduces the size of your loan and can help you avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI).
  3. Your Debt-to-Income Ratio: Paying down other debts makes you a more attractive borrower.

The strategy of “marry the house, date the rate” still holds true. Buying a home you can afford now and refinancing later when rates eventually drop further (perhaps in 2026 or beyond) is a valid path forward.

For Homeowners Thinking of Refinancing

If you're one of the millions of homeowners sitting on a mortgage rate of 3-4%, this forecast confirms what you probably already knew: it doesn't make sense to refinance anytime soon. This phenomenon, often called the “golden handcuffs,” is a major reason why the housing market has felt so stuck. People don't want to sell and give up their fantastic rate, which keeps the supply of existing homes for sale incredibly low.

The Ripple Effect on the Housing Market

Fannie Mae's predictions for mortgage rates don't exist in a vacuum. They have a direct impact on the number of homes sold and the total volume of mortgages being written.

  • Home Sales Outlook: With higher rates sticking around, Fannie Mae now projects fewer home sales in both 2025 (down to 4.74 million) and 2026. This isn't a crash; it's a market that is slowly thawing, not boiling over.
  • Mortgage Originations: Fewer sales and fewer refinances mean fewer new mortgages. The forecast for mortgage originations was also revised down for both years.

From my perspective, this points to a housing market that will continue to favor sellers due to low inventory, but one where buyers will have slightly more breathing room than in the frenzied years of 2021-2022. Bidding wars will be less common, and homes may sit on the market for a few weeks instead of a few hours.

My Final Take: Adjusting Our Expectations

After analyzing Fannie Mae's report, my biggest takeaway is the need for a collective adjustment of our expectations. The era of ultra-low 3% mortgage rates was a historical anomaly, fueled by a global pandemic. It was not the norm.

The “new normal” for the next couple of years looks like it will be in the 6% range. While that's a tough pill to swallow for those who remember the rock-bottom rates, it's a far more historically average place to be. This forecast doesn't point to a housing market collapse. Instead, it points to stabilization. It suggests a market where prices grow more slowly, buyers have to be more disciplined, and the wild swings of the past few years finally start to calm down.

The road ahead is one of gradual improvement. The light at the end of the tunnel is there, but it seems we'll be in that tunnel for a little while longer.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

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Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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