Durham Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

Thinking about buying or selling a home in Durham in 2024? The Durham housing market trends are definitely something to keep an eye on. The Durham housing market in October 2024 saw a slight dip in the median sales price, down by -0.9% compared to the same time last year.

However, home affordability has increased slightly, and inventory is still relatively low. So, is it a buyer's or seller's market right now? Let's dive into the details and explore what's happening in the Durham housing market.

As a real estate investor with years of experience in the Durham area, I've always been fascinated by the dynamics of the housing market. Watching the fluctuations in home sales, prices, and inventory is like observing a living, breathing entity. And the trends in 2024 are certainly interesting!

Durham Housing Market Trends in 2024

Home Sales

The latest data from Doorify MLS shows that the number of closed sales in Durham County in October 2024 was 285, representing a decrease of -4.4% compared to October 2023. This suggests that the pace of transactions has slowed down slightly compared to the previous year.

Why might this be happening? There could be multiple reasons, including:

• Rising Interest Rates: Increased interest rates often make mortgage payments more expensive, impacting affordability and potentially causing buyers to delay or reconsider their purchases. It definitely makes a huge difference in the affordability calculations.
• Economic Uncertainty: The broader economic environment has created some uncertainty for many, and some potential home buyers might be hesitant to commit to a major purchase amidst that uncertainty.
• Competition Still Exists: Although the number of sales decreased slightly, it's worth noting that the Durham housing market remains competitive, and homes are still selling. The inventory levels remain low compared to the past which contributes to the competitive nature of the market.

Home Prices

In October 2024, the median sales price of homes in Durham County was $419,500, indicating a slight decrease of -0.9% compared to October 2023. While the change might not seem huge, it is a sign of a potential shift in the market.

However, it's important to remember that the median sales price is just an average. The actual selling price of a property will depend on a number of factors, including its location, size, condition, and features. I've personally seen instances where homes in sought-after neighborhoods or with unique features still sold for a premium, even in the face of a slight dip in the overall median price.

Housing Supply

One of the key factors influencing the Durham housing market is the housing supply. The active inventory in October 2024 was 775, down -1.3% compared to October 2023. This relatively low inventory level continues to support a more seller-friendly market.

• New Listings: However, the number of new listings has increased. In October 2024, there were 421 new listings, up 24.9% compared to the same month in 2023. This might suggest that more sellers are coming to the market, possibly in anticipation of the slightly cooling market trends. However, it’s not a huge change and we still have low inventory levels.
• Days on Market: The median days on market for a home in October 2024 was 20, which is up by 122.2% compared to October 2023. This indicates that homes are spending a bit more time on the market, suggesting that the market is not quite as fast-paced as it was a year ago. Buyers are gaining a bit more leverage in this market, but not much because of low inventory.

Market Trends

The data paints a picture of a Durham housing market that is in a state of transition. While the past few years saw explosive growth, a slight cooling is becoming evident in 2024.

• Shifting Dynamics: We're seeing a subtle shift from the extremely competitive seller's market that prevailed in the recent past. We're moving towards a more balanced market with a greater degree of opportunity for buyers. I've personally seen a slight change in the dynamic in the last few months, but it's not a dramatic change. The market is still quite competitive.
• Affordability: One of the positives I've observed in the current market is that home affordability has increased slightly. In October 2024, affordability rose to 10.8%, up from the previous year. This means that more buyers are able to afford a home in Durham. Interest rates are high but I'm hopeful that they might come down in the future. This might lead to more transactions in the market.

Is Durham a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the current Durham housing market trends, we're seeing a shift towards a more balanced market, with some advantages for buyers and sellers both. However, the market is not drastically shifting towards buyers' favor.

• Buyer Advantages: Buyers are benefiting from a slightly slower pace of sales, a modest reduction in home prices, and slightly increased affordability. This provides buyers with a bit more time to consider their options and potentially negotiate on price.
• Seller Advantages: However, sellers are still enjoying a strong market overall. Inventory remains low, which continues to give sellers some leverage. The market is still competitive which means sellers do not have to lower the prices drastically in many cases.

In conclusion, it's not yet a buyer's market. However, it's becoming less of a seller's market compared to the last few years. It's a great time to be in the market for both buyers and sellers.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Durham?

While the median sales price has shown a slight decrease, it's important to avoid making sweeping generalizations about home prices dropping in the Durham housing market.

• Moderate Decrease: The slight decrease in the median sales price is a moderate change. I wouldn't expect to see large-scale price declines in the near future.
• Local Variation: Prices still vary significantly depending on the neighborhood, property type, and specific features. Some areas might see a more noticeable decrease while others remain strong.
• Long-Term Perspective: Over the long term, housing prices in desirable locations like Durham tend to appreciate, which makes it a good investment.

Table Summarizing Key Durham Housing Market Trends in October 2024

Metric	October 2024	Change from October 2023
Median Sales Price	$419,500	-0.9%
Closed Sales	285	-4.4%
Median Days on Market	20	+122.2%
Active Inventory	775	-1.3%
Median Sold $/SqFt	$236	+2.6%
New Listings	421	+24.9%
Home Affordability	10.8%	+ (increased)

Source: Doorify MLS, data updated 11/12/24

Durham Housing Market Forecast 2024-2025

Based on the latest data from Zillow, the Durham housing market is expected to see a slight decline in home prices in the coming months, with a potential dip of -0.1% by the end of October 2024 and a more significant drop of -0.6% by the end of December 2024. The outlook for September 2025 is a slight increase from the December low point.

Analyzing the Trends: A Closer Look at the Forecast

I have been following the Durham housing market for quite some time and from what I've observed, these predictions are fairly consistent with other indicators. The data that we are looking at comes from credible sources and helps us in understanding the near-term future of the Durham housing market.

You can see the projected changes from the baseline in the table below:

Area	State	Oct 2024	Dec 2024	Sep 2025
Durham, NC	NC	-0.1%	-0.6%	1%

Important Note: These figures represent the projected change in home prices from the baseline period of September 2024.

What Does this Mean for the Durham Housing Market?

While a decline in home prices might sound alarming, in the context of the Durham housing market, it is more of a correction after a period of substantial growth. I don't personally think that the market will crash. I think that this correction is quite healthy for the market. It could be an excellent opportunity for buyers who were sidelined during the more competitive market conditions.

Looking Ahead:

Looking further ahead, it's difficult to be overly specific about the Durham housing market forecast for 2026 and beyond. However, I believe that the market will likely stabilize and start showing moderate growth in the future. There are many factors that can impact the market such as new construction, employment growth and overall economic conditions.

It's difficult to predict exactly where the Durham housing market will head in the coming months and years. However, I'm hopeful that the increased affordability and moderate price adjustments might help stimulate more transactions.

• Interest Rate Expectations: The interest rates are a big concern right now. Hopefully, they might stabilize or even decline in the future, which would help make homes more affordable. This would impact the market positively.
• Economic Factors: The broader economic picture will also play a significant role. If the economy remains healthy, we might see the market stabilize, and possibly even rebound. Economic factors play a huge role in the housing market.
• Population Growth: Durham County continues to experience population growth. This demand will continue to be a major factor that will push housing prices up in the long run. The area remains attractive to many people, making housing prices strong.

Ultimately, the Durham housing market is a dynamic and complex system influenced by a wide array of factors. The trends we're seeing in 2024 suggest a shift from a white-hot market to a more balanced market. Buyers are gaining a slight edge, while sellers still benefit from low inventory. As we head into the future, it will be essential to monitor the market closely, stay informed about interest rate changes, and consult with a local real estate professional who can help navigate the changing dynamics.

Durham Real Estate Appreciation: A Look at Long-Term Trends

If you're looking for a city with a proven track record of real estate growth, Durham, North Carolina deserves your attention. Over the past decade, Durham has experienced explosive home value appreciation, solidifying its place as one of the top real estate investments in the country.

Let's dive into the numbers and see what they tell us about Durham's real estate market.

A Decade of Impressive Growth

The numbers are clear: Durham has been a goldmine for long-term investors. Over the last ten years, Durham real estate has appreciated a staggering 129.41% (Neighborhoodscout). That translates to an average annual growth rate of a healthy 8.66%. This impressive performance places Durham in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation.

The current median home value in Durham sits at $420,396. This means that a home purchased ten years ago for around $183,000 (based on average appreciation) could potentially be worth more than double today. That's a significant return on investment for any homeowner or real estate investor.

Understanding Recent Trends

While the long-term trends are undeniably positive, it's important to acknowledge recent market shifts. The data indicates a slight cooling off in the past year. The latest quarter (Q3 2023 to Q4 2023) saw a decrease of 0.57% in appreciation. This dip is relatively small and can be seen in the context of a larger market correction.

Looking at a broader timeframe, a 2.95% increase is evident over the past year (Q4 2022 to Q4 2023). When compared to the national average, Durham's performance remains strong. Over the last two years (Q4 2021 to Q4 2023), appreciation reached 18.83%, which translates to a still-impressive annual growth rate of 9.01%.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The recent cool-down shouldn't deter potential investors. Durham's long-term appreciation story remains compelling. The city boasts a strong and growing economy, fueled by research institutions and technology companies. This translates to a steady demand for housing, which is a key driver of real estate value.

While the market might not be experiencing the double-digit growth rates of the past decade, Durham still offers promising opportunities for investors seeking stable and consistent returns.

The Takeaway: Durham's real estate market presents a unique combination of impressive long-term growth and a recent cool-down, offering a potential entry point for investors. Remember, real estate is a long-term game, and Durham's fundamentals remain strong. Careful research and sound investment strategies are key to navigating any market, and Durham is no exception.

Should You Invest in the Durham Real Estate Market?

Durham, North Carolina, has become a prime location for real estate investors looking to tap into the growing economy of the Research Triangle Park. The city offers a wide range of real estate investment opportunities, from residential to commercial properties. With its strong job market, favorable tax policies, and affordable cost of living, Durham is a great place to invest in real estate for the long term.

One of the primary reasons to consider investing in Durham real estate is the city's strong and growing economy. The Research Triangle Park, which includes Durham, Raleigh, and Chapel Hill, is home to more than 250 companies, including major players in the technology, healthcare, and finance sectors. This concentration of high-tech companies has led to significant job growth in the area.

Durham's affordable cost of living is another factor that makes it an attractive destination for real estate investors. The city's median home value is well below the national average, and the cost of living is 8% lower than the national average. This means that investors can purchase properties at a relatively low cost, while still enjoying a strong return on investment.

Top 6 Reasons to Invest in Durham Real Estate for the Long-Term

• Growing Economy: Durham is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, and this is largely due to the growth of the Research Triangle Park, which is home to some of the world's leading technology companies, such as IBM, Cisco, and Lenovo. This concentration of high-tech companies has led to significant job growth and a booming economy, making Durham a stable and thriving market for real estate investors.
• Job Growth: Durham's job market is strong, and it is continuing to grow. The city's unemployment rate is well below the national average, and there is a steady stream of well-paying jobs being created in the technology, healthcare, and finance sectors. This creates a stable source of rental income for real estate investors, and it also means that there is strong demand for homes to purchase.
• Affordable Cost of Living: One of the most significant advantages of investing in Durham real estate is the city's affordable cost of living. The median home value in Durham is well below the national average, and the cost of living is 8% lower than the national average. This means that investors can purchase properties at a relatively low cost, while still enjoying a strong return on investment.
• Favorable Tax Policies: North Carolina has some of the most favorable tax policies for real estate investors in the country. The state has a low state-income tax rate, and there is no inheritance tax. This makes it an attractive destination for real estate investors who are looking to maximize their returns.
• Diverse Real Estate Market: Durham offers a diverse range of real estate investment opportunities, from residential to commercial properties. This diversity provides investors with the flexibility to build a diversified real estate portfolio. It also means that there are always new investment opportunities available in the city.
• Quality of Life: Durham offers a high quality of life, which makes it an attractive destination for both renters and potential buyers. The city has top-rated schools, a thriving arts and culture scene, and access to outdoor recreation opportunities. This quality of life attracts a diverse range of people to the city, creating a strong demand for real estate investment opportunities.

I hope this information was helpful! Feel free to reach out if you have any specific questions about the Durham housing market.