Thinking about buying or selling a home in Dallas? You're probably wondering what's going on with the current Dallas housing market trends. Well, in short, things are a little more balanced than they have been in the past few years. We're seeing more homes on the market, and prices aren't skyrocketing like they were during the pandemic. Let's dive deeper to understand this better.
Current Dallas Housing Market Trends: A Look at What's Happening
Home Sales
Let's start with the basics: are people actually buying homes in Dallas? According to recent data, yes, they are! In March 2025, there were 7,884 home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area. That's up slightly, about 0.68%, compared to March 2024 (7,831 homes sold). It is a good sign that home sales are still up despite high mortgage rates.
| March 2025 | March 2024 | YoY % | YTD 2025 | YTD 2024 | YTD YoY % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 7,884 | 7,831 | 0.68% | 19,668 | 19,753 | -0.43% |
| Dollar Volume | $3,942,249,141 | $3,845,098,796 | 2.53% | $9,601,310,948 | NA | 1.29% |
Home Prices
Okay, sales are up a bit, but what about the big question: how much are homes costing? Here's where things get interesting. The median close price in March 2025 was $395,528. That's just a tiny bit higher, up 0.13%, from $395,000 in March 2024.
| March 2025 | March 2024 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Close Price | $395,528 | $395,000 | 0.13% |
| Average Sales Price | $500,032 | $491,010 | 1.84% |
| Median Price per Square Foot | $193.27 | $196.74 | -1.77% |
| Average Price per Square Foot | $209.30 | $209.96 | -0.31% |
The average sale price also rose by 1.84%. It seems like, the homes being sold currently are higher-priced houses. But if you look closely, the median price per square foot actually declined by 1.77%. This suggests that while overall prices are relatively stable, you might be getting a little more for your money in terms of space.
Are Home Prices Dropping?
This is the million-dollar question, isn't it? Are Dallas home prices actually dropping? The data paints a mixed picture. Overall, median home prices are almost flat. But looking at price per square foot declining is indicating that the homes sales prices are being negotiated to a lower price.
While it's not a dramatic drop, it does show that the market isn't as hot as it was. I wouldn't say prices are crashing, but they are leveling off and even showing slight signs of decreasing in some areas.
Comparison with Current National Median Price
So, how does Dallas compare to the rest of the country? The national median home price in February 2025 was $398,400, with a year-over-year change of +3.8%. The Dallas median home price of $395,528 is slightly lower than the national median. This is interesting! Dallas used to be a more expensive market compared to the national average, but things are evening out. I think this reflects the increased housing supply in Dallas.
Housing Supply
One of the biggest shifts in the Dallas housing market has been the increase in housing supply. In March 2025, there were 29,829 active listings. That's a significant increase of 36.14% compared to March 2024, which had 21,910 active listings. More homes on the market mean more choices for buyers.
| March 2025 | March 2024 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 14,189 | 12,243 | 15.89% |
| Active Listings | 29,829 | 21,910 | 36.14% |
| Months Inventory | 3.9 | 2.9 | 32.71% |
New listings are also up, showing that more sellers are choosing to put their homes on the market. This increased supply is contributing to the more balanced market we're seeing.
Is Dallas a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
For a long time, Dallas was firmly a seller's market. That meant there were more buyers than homes, giving sellers the upper hand. But with the increase in housing supply, we're moving towards a more balanced market.
One way to measure this is by looking at the months of inventory. This tells us how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market if no new homes were listed. In March 2025, Dallas had 3.9 months of inventory. That's up significantly from 2.9 months in March 2024.
Generally, a market with less than 5 months of inventory is considered a seller's market. A market with 6 or more months of inventory is considered a buyer's market. So, we're right in the middle! I think we're now seeing a more neutral market, where neither buyers nor sellers have a significant advantage.
Market Trends
So, what are the key trends shaping the Dallas housing market right now?
- Increased Inventory: As mentioned, there are simply more homes available.
- Stabilizing Prices: Prices aren't skyrocketing, and in some cases, they are even decreasing slightly.
- Longer Time on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell. The days to sell increased from 84 in March 2024 to 96 in March 2025. That's more time for buyers to consider their options.
- Negotiating Power: Buyers have more room to negotiate price and terms.
- Slightly Lower Price per Square Foot: You're getting more for your money in terms of space than you were a year ago.
- Close to Original List Price: The data shows the the close to original list price ratio is declining, which means people are bidding less to grab the house.
| March 2025 | March 2024 | YoY % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days to Sell | 96 | 84 | 14.29% |
| Close to Original List Price | 95.21% | 96.32% | -1.15% |
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
We can't talk about the housing market without talking about mortgage rates. Currently, in April 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.83%, and the 15-year FRM is about 6.03%, according to Freddie Mac.
High mortgage rates definitely impact affordability. When rates are high, it costs more to borrow money, which can discourage some buyers. However, the Dallas market has shown some resilience.
Here's what I'm seeing:
- Some Buyers are adjusting: Buyers are getting used to the higher rates. They're adjusting their budgets and looking at smaller homes or different neighborhoods.
- Sellers are being realistic: Sellers know they can't expect the same sky-high prices they could get a couple of years ago. They're more willing to negotiate.
- The “wait-and-see” approach: As prospective buyers and sellers are not anticipating any rate decline as it was last year, they may be inclined to make a move as early as possible.
In Conclusion
The current Dallas housing market trends show a market that's becoming more balanced. We're not seeing the crazy price increases we saw during the pandemic, and buyers have more choices and more negotiating power. While high mortgage rates are a factor, the Dallas market remains relatively healthy due to the influx of population and businesses.
If you're thinking about buying or selling, now is a good time to talk to a real estate professional. I can help you navigate the market and make the best decisions for your situation.
Dallas Housing Market Predictions 2025-2026
Now, let's talk about the Dallas Housing Market Forecast. Experts are predicting a slight dip in home values over the next year. Now, let's dig into the details and see what that really means for you.
Right now, the average home value in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area is around $373,541. That's according to recent data, and it shows a decrease of about 1.3% over the past year. Homes are also staying on the market a little longer, going to pending in roughly 35 days.
What the Experts are Saying
To get a clearer picture of where things are headed, I've checked out Zillow's latest market forecast. Here's a breakdown of what they predict:
- Short-Term Forecast: Zillow predicts the Dallas housing market to drop by 0.6% by April 2025.
- Mid-Range Forecast: They expect home values to decrease by 1.7% by June 2025.
- One-Year Outlook: Looking further ahead, the forecast from March 2025 to March 2026 suggests a 2.9% decrease in home values.
Here is a summary of Zillow's forecast:
| Timeframe | Projected Change in Home Value |
|---|---|
| By April 2025 | -0.6% |
| By June 2025 | -1.7% |
| March 2025 to March 2026 | -2.9% |
How Does Dallas Compare to Other Texas Markets?
It's always good to see how Dallas stacks up against other major cities in Texas. Here's a comparison of Zillow's one-year forecast (March 2025 to March 2026) for a few key areas:
| Region | Projected Change in Home Value |
|---|---|
| Dallas, TX | -2.9% |
| Houston, TX | -3.1% |
| San Antonio, TX | -4.0% |
| Austin, TX | -4.1% |
| McAllen, TX | -0.5% |
| El Paso, TX | -0.1% |
| Killeen, TX | -1.8% |
| Corpus Christi, TX | -5.1% |
As you can see, Dallas is expected to experience a decrease, but it's not as steep as some other areas like Austin or Corpus Christi. El Paso is predicted to have the smallest change.
Will Home Prices Crash in Dallas?
Okay, let's address the big question: Is the Dallas housing market going to crash? Based on the data and my understanding of the market, a crash seems unlikely. A crash usually involves a rapid and significant drop in prices, often triggered by factors like widespread foreclosures or a major economic downturn. While we are seeing a cooling off, the predicted declines are gradual and don't point to a catastrophic collapse.
My Take and a Possible Forecast for 2026
I believe the Dallas housing market is undergoing a correction, not a crash. Interest rates, while still relatively high, have stabilized somewhat. The strong job market in Dallas continues to attract people to the area. While I don't have a crystal ball, I think we might see the market stabilize further in 2026. I would not be surprised if the house prices remain somewhat the same, or slightly go up or down.
What This Means for You
- If you're a buyer: You might have a bit more negotiating power and find more homes to choose from.
- If you're a seller: It's crucial to price your home competitively and be prepared for it to stay on the market a bit longer.
Ultimately, the Dallas Housing Market Forecast shows a moderate cooling trend. It's essential to stay informed and work with a real estate professional who can give you personalized advice based on your specific situation.
Should You Invest in the Dallas Real Estate Market?
Is Dallas a Good Place For Real Estate Investment? The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex is a booming region in Texas, consistently ranking high on lists of attractive real estate investment markets. But is it the right choice for you? Here's a detailed breakdown of key factors to consider:
City's Population Growth and Trends
- Rapid Growth: Dallas is experiencing explosive population growth. Fueled by a strong job market and affordable living costs, the metroplex is projected to add over one million residents by 2030 [Dallas Business Journal]. This translates to a constant demand for housing, benefiting both rental and sales markets for investors.
- Diverse Demographics: The DFW population is young and diverse, with a millennial-heavy demographic. This group typically fuels the rental market as they prioritize flexibility and affordability over immediate homeownership. Millennials are also known for their entrepreneurial spirit, further contributing to the area's economic dynamism.
Economy and Jobs
- Strong Job Market: Dallas boasts a diversified economy with a strong presence of healthcare, finance, and technology industries. This translates to job security and a steady influx of professionals seeking quality housing, bolstering rental markets. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area had a 6.5% job growth rate in February 2024, which was higher than the national average of 1.7%. This growth was driven by gains in manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. In 2023, the DFW metroplex added more than 154,000 new jobs, which was the second-highest number in the country after New York City.
- Corporate Relocation Hub: Major corporations are increasingly choosing Dallas for their headquarters or regional offices. This trend in corporate relocation further strengthens the job market and creates a consistent demand for housing. Companies like Toyota North America and Topgolf have recently made the move to DFW, highlighting the region's attractiveness to businesses.
Livability and Other Factors
- Business-Friendly Environment: Texas is known for its low taxes and business-friendly regulations, making it an attractive location for entrepreneurs and established companies alike. This fosters economic growth and a stable environment for real estate investment.
- Relatively Affordable Living: While home prices have risen in recent years, Dallas remains more affordable compared to other major coastal cities. The cost of living in Dallas is significantly lower than in places like San Francisco or Los Angeles. This affordability continues to attract residents and renters, creating a healthy and dynamic housing market.
- High Quality of Life: Dallas offers a high quality of life with a vibrant culture, diverse neighborhoods, and a range of entertainment options. The Dallas Arts District is a major hub for cultural attractions, while trendy neighborhoods like Deep Ellum offer a lively nightlife scene. This attracts residents and renters seeking a well-rounded lifestyle, boosting the overall demand for housing.
Rental Property Market Size and Growth
- Large and Growing Market: The Dallas rental market is vast and flourishing. With a high percentage of residents choosing to rent, investors can find a wide variety of properties with strong rental potential. The dominance of the rental market can be attributed to several factors, including the young and transient nature of the population, and the affordability advantage of renting compared to buying in a market with rising home prices.
- Favorable Rental Yields: Dallas offers competitive rental yields compared to the national average. This means investors can expect a healthy return on their investment through rental income. Yields can vary depending on property type, location, and overall market conditions, so careful research is crucial.
Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing
- Market Shift: As of May 2024, the Dallas market is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. This presents an opportunity for investors to potentially negotiate better deals and acquire properties at a more favorable price point. A buyer's market can also mean more time to conduct due diligence and research potential properties.
- Rising Interest Rates: The recent rise in interest rates can impact investor calculations. Higher interest rates can increase financing costs and potentially lower profit margins. However, Dallas' strong fundamentals and potential for appreciation, along with the possibility of a more balanced market, can still make it a worthwhile investment. Investors with strong financial reserves and long-term investment horizons may be better positioned to weather short-term fluctuations in interest rates.
Remember: Real estate investing involves inherent risks. Conduct thorough research, consider your financial goals, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By carefully weighing the factors outlined above, you can make an informed decision about whether investing in the Dallas real estate market aligns with your investment strategy.
Recommended Read:
