Canadian Housing Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

When it comes to Canadian real estate, predicting where the market is headed can feel like trying to catch smoke. Will prices continue their upward climb, or are we looking at a cooling period? I’ve been following these trends closely, and based on the latest insights from The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), I can tell you this: expect a mixed bag for the Canadian housing market in 2025, with a noticeable rebound anticipated for 2026. While 2025 might see a slight dip in sales and a modest price adjustment, the underlying strength suggests a strong comeback is on the horizon.

Canadian Housing Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

It's easy to get caught up in the headlines, but digging into the actual data from organizations like CREA gives us a clearer picture. They provide crucial forecasts that help buyers, sellers, and investors make more informed decisions. My own experience tells me that these seasoned forecasts, grounded in real-time data, are far more reliable than gut feelings or speculative trends.

Let's unpack what CREA is projecting for the next couple of years and what it could mean for you.

The 2025 Outlook: A Slight Pause Before the Push

Looking at 2025, CREA anticipates a slight softening in the resale housing market. The projected number of residential properties expected to trade hands across Canada is around 473,090. This represents a modest decrease of 1.1% compared to what's expected for 2024.

Why this dip? CREA points to a couple of factors. Firstly, in the early part of 2025, there was some “tariff chaos and economic uncertainty” that caused many potential buyers to pause and wait on the sidelines. This hesitancy particularly impacted markets like British Columbia and Ontario, which are known for their higher price points. When sales activity slows in these major provinces, it can have a ripple effect across the entire country, even if other regions are seeing growth.

On the price front, the national average home price is forecasted to see a slight decline of 1.4%, bringing it to an estimated $676,705. Again, this is largely influenced by price adjustments in British Columbia and Ontario. However, it's important to note that many other provinces are expected to see price gains ranging from 4% to 8% in 2025. This means that while some expensive markets might cool down a bit, affordability challenges and price growth could still be a concern in other areas.

My take on this: While a dip in sales and prices might sound alarming, it's a relatively small shift. The fact that sales activity has been on a “steady upward climb” since March 2025, as CREA noted, is a very positive sign. It suggests that the initial hesitation wasn't a rejection of the market, but rather a delay. Buyers who were planning to enter the market likely just pushed their plans back, and their return is bolstering activity. This means 2025 might be a year where the market takes a breath, allowing for a more sustainable growth trajectory.

Regional Snapshot: Where the Action Might Be

While the national picture is one of slight moderation, regional variations are key. Here’s how some provinces are expected to fare:

Province/Territory	2025 Sales Forecast	2025 % Change (vs 2024)	2025 Average Price Forecast	2025 % Change (vs 2024)
Canada	473,090	-1.1%	$676,705	-1.4%
British Columbia	71,361	-4.1%	$951,154	-3.1%
Alberta	77,830	-6.8%	$511,287	3.5%
Saskatchewan	16,540	1.6%	$349,195	8.8%
Manitoba	16,269	3.2%	$396,250	7.3%
Ontario	163,074	-3.7%	$838,993	-3.4%
Quebec	98,328	9.1%	$547,058	4.6%
New Brunswick	9,657	1.9%	$348,026	6.7%
Nova Scotia	11,046	-0.3%	$467,954	4.5%
Prince Edward Island	2,142	5.8%	$398,013	2.3%
Newfoundland	5,994	5.4%	$344,329	7.7%

Key observations from the table for 2025:

• Declines in B.C. and Ontario: These provinces show anticipated drops in both sales activity and average prices, heavily influencing the national figures.
• Strong Gains Elsewhere: Provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland are projected to see healthy increases in both sales and prices. This indicates regional economic strengths and varying demand-supply dynamics.
• Alberta's Mixed Picture: While Alberta's sales are forecast to decrease, prices are expected to see a moderate rise, suggesting a potentially tighter market or increased demand for higher-priced homes within the province.

The 2026 Forecast: Rebound and Resilience

Now, let's look ahead to 2026, where CREA’s projections paint a much rosier picture. This is where that delayed demand truly seems to kick in.

National home sales are forecast to rebound significantly, with an estimated 509,479 properties trading hands. This represents a robust increase of 7.7% from 2025. CREA notes that this level of activity is the highest seen since 2021, though still below the absolute peak reached historically. It’s a welcome return to a more dynamic market, moving past the half-million mark in sales.

On the price front, the national average home price is expected to climb by 3.2% from its 2025 level, reaching an estimated $698,622. This would mark the sixth consecutive year where the average price hovers around the $700,000 mark, indicating a period of relative stability for the national average, punctuated by moderate growth.

My perspective on this: This projected rebound in 2026 is exactly what I look for to confirm the underlying health of our housing market. Periods of slight correction or stabilization are often followed by renewed growth, especially when driven by factors like pent-up demand and potentially stabilizing interest rates (though interest rates are notoriously hard to predict definitively). The fact that 2026 sales are expected to surpass 2024 levels, despite the mid-2025 dip, is a strong indicator of long-term market resilience.

Regional Roundup for 2026

Let's see how the regions are expected to perform in 2026:

Province/Territory	2026 Sales Forecast	2026 % Change (vs 2025)	2026 Average Price Forecast	2026 % Change (vs 2025)
Canada	509,479	7.7%	$698,622	3.2%
British Columbia	80,342	12.6%	$968,141	1.8%
Alberta	81,792	5.1%	$517,129	1.1%
Saskatchewan	16,786	1.5%	$360,839	3.3%
Manitoba	17,079	5.0%	$407,629	2.9%
Ontario	180,080	10.4%	$861,112	2.6%
Quebec	102,300	4.0%	$561,287	2.6%
New Brunswick	10,016	3.7%	$356,356	2.4%
Nova Scotia	11,720	6.1%	$475,402	1.6%
Prince Edward Island	2,311	7.9%	$403,983	1.5%
Newfoundland	6,154	2.7%	$354,740	3.0%

Key takeaways for 2026:

• Strong Rebound Across the Board: Most provinces are expected to see significant increases in sales activity. The 12.6% jump in British Columbia and 10.4% in Ontario are particularly noteworthy, indicating a strong return to these previously dampened markets.
• Continued Price Growth: While the pace of price increases might be more moderate than during peak years, most regions are projected to see steady growth. Saskatchewan leads with a 3.3% price increase, alongside other provinces showing gains of 1.1% to 3.2%.
• Balanced Growth: The 2026 forecast suggests a more balanced growth across the country, with strong sales figures and modest price appreciation, pointing towards a more sustainable market.

What Does This Mean for You?

For potential buyers, the 2025 forecast might offer a slight reprieve in some pricier markets, potentially creating windows of opportunity. However, with competition expected to heat up by 2026, it’s wise to be prepared. Saving for a down payment and getting pre-approved for a mortgage will be crucial steps.

For sellers, understanding these trends is vital. If you're considering selling in 2025, be realistic about pricing, especially in markets like B.C. and Ontario. However, the strong rebound anticipated for 2026 suggests that holding on might lead to a better return if you’re not in a rush. The forecast is a good reminder that timing is everything.

For investors, the regional variations are key. Provinces showing consistent growth in both sales and prices, like Quebec and Manitoba, might present attractive opportunities. Diversification is always a smart strategy.

It's crucial to remember that these are forecasts, based on current data and trends. Unexpected economic shifts, changes in government policy, or global events can always influence the market. My best advice, honed by years of seeing how markets ebb and flow, is to stay informed, consult with local real estate professionals, and make decisions that align with your personal financial goals. The Canadian housing market is dynamic, and understanding these projections from CREA is a great starting point for your real estate journey in 2025 and 2026.