It feels like everywhere you look, finding a place to live that doesn't cost an arm and a leg is just getting harder. Whether you're hoping to buy your first home, move to a new city, or just find a decent rental, the market is… well, it’s tough. But it’s not tough in the same way everywhere. Some places are doing okay, relatively speaking, while others are heading towards what looks like a serious struggle.

Based on a recent analysis from LendingTree, when we look ahead to 2025, the Top 10 Metros With Worst Housing Crisis Outlook in 2025 are led by cities in the Pacific Northwest like Portland, Oregon, and Boise, Idaho, alongside places like Bridgeport, Connecticut, signaling that the challenges are particularly steep in these areas due to a mix of low supply and high costs relative to income.

From where I sit, watching market trends ebb and flow, it’s clear that the story of housing in America is really a collection of local stories. What's happening in Miami is wildly different from what's happening in the Midwest or the Mountain West. This idea of a “housing crisis outlook” really drills down into which of these local stories are set to get more challenging in the near future.

It's not just about prices being high today, but about how the pieces fit together – like how many empty homes there are, how many new homes are being built, and how home prices compare to what people actually earn. These factors give us clues about whether things might get better or worse for folks looking for housing.

Understanding What Makes a “Worst Outlook”

So, how do we even figure out which cities have a bad housing outlook? It’s not just a feeling; it's based on cold, hard numbers. The study I'm referencing looked at a few key things across the 100 largest U.S. metro areas. Think of these like vital signs for a city's housing health:

1. Vacancy Rate: This is simply the percentage of homes that are empty and available for sale or rent. A low vacancy rate means there aren't many options, making the market really tight for buyers and renters. Imagine trying to find a seat in a packed theater – low vacancy makes it hard to find a good spot, and you might have to pay extra for whatever’s left.
2. Housing Unit Approvals per 1,000 Existing Units: This measures how many permits are being issued for building new homes relative to the homes already there. A high number here suggests lots of construction is happening or planned, which is good! More new homes usually helps ease the pressure by adding supply. A low number means the area isn't building much, which is bad news if people keep wanting to move there.
3. Home Value-to-Income Ratio: This is a big one for affordability. It compares the median home value (the middle price of all homes) to the median household income (the middle income for families in that area). A high ratio means homes cost many times more than what the typical family earns, making buying a home feel impossible. Think of it as figuring out how many years of your entire paycheck it would take to buy a house – the fewer years, the more affordable.
4. Change in Home Value-to-Income Ratio (Year-over-Year): Is that affordability gap getting wider or narrower? If this ratio is increasing quickly, it means home values are rising much faster than incomes. This is a sign that things are getting less affordable for locals, even if prices aren't the absolute highest in the country.

When you put these four measures together, you get a picture of how much pressure the housing market is under and whether it’s likely to build or ease. Low vacancy + Low building + High cost relative to income + That cost getting even higher = A recipe for a tough situation.

The Top 10 Metros With the Toughest Road Ahead

Now, let’s look at the cities that landed on the “worst outlook” list for 2025. These are the places where those vital signs look most concerning, suggesting things might get even harder before they get easier.

Here are the top 10, according to the analysis:

(Source: LendingTree analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data)

Let's dig into why these places made the list.

1. Portland, Oregon: The Epicenter of the Storm

Portland takes the top spot, and looking at the data, it's not hard to see why. The vacancy rate is incredibly low at just 4.76%. To put that in perspective, imagine trying to find an empty apartment or house – hardly any are available. This creates huge competition among buyers and renters. On top of that, the median home value is about $526,500 with a median income around $94,573, leading to a value-to-income ratio of 5.57. That means the typical home costs over five and a half times the typical annual income. Ouch.

What makes it worse for Portland? The data on housing unit approvals. At just 8.69 per 1,000 units, it suggests the city isn't adding new homes quickly enough to keep up with demand, even if that demand slows down a bit. My take on Portland is that it's a highly desirable place to live – great food scene, access to nature, a certain vibe people love. But years of not adding enough housing inventory, combined with consistent demand (even through economic shifts), have created this perfect storm of unaffordability and scarcity. It's like everyone wants a ticket to the coolest show in town, but they're only selling a handful of tickets.

2. Boise, Idaho: Rapid Growth Outpacing Reality

Boise comes in second, and its story is slightly different but just as challenging. It has an even lower vacancy rate than Portland at 4.56%. That's practically no wiggle room in the market. While its value-to-income ratio (5.25) is slightly better than Portland's, the change in that ratio is where Boise really falls down. It saw a staggering 7.12% increase in the value-to-income ratio between 2022 and 2023. This indicates that home prices in Boise have been skyrocketing much faster than incomes, making it rapidly less affordable for people who live and work there.

Interestingly, the data points out that Boise does have a high rate of housing unit approvals (29.37 per 1,000 units). This tells me that while builders are trying to add supply, it hasn't been fast enough to catch up with the massive influx of people who moved there during and after the pandemic, lured by its perceived affordability and quality of life. The rapid growth was a double-edged sword, making it less affordable very, very quickly.

3. Bridgeport, Connecticut: Supply, Supply, Supply

Bridgeport ranks third, but for slightly different reasons than the PNW cities. Its vacancy rate (6.70%) isn't quite as terrifyingly low as Portland or Boise, and its value-to-income ratio (4.75) is lower than the top two. However, the major factor dragging Bridgeport down seems to be the incredibly low rate of new housing being approved: just 5.33 per 1,000 units.

When you aren't building new homes, the existing supply gets more pressure. Even if demand isn't exploding like in a boomtown, natural population growth and the simple aging of existing housing stock mean you need new units. A rate this low suggests significant hurdles to adding supply, whether it's strict zoning laws, high construction costs, or other factors. My experience tells me that older, established metro areas, particularly in the Northeast, often face challenges with adding density and new construction compared to sprawling Sun Belt cities. This seems to be a central issue for Bridgeport's outlook.

The Rest of the Top (or Bottom?) 10

The rest of the top 10 list shows a mix of fast-growing, desirable areas and older, established metros facing supply constraints or rapidly rising costs:

• 4. Spokane, Washington: Like Boise, Spokane seems to be battling both a moderately tight market (vacancy 6.33%, ratio 5.02) and a significant jump in unaffordability, with a 7.17% increase in its value-to-income ratio, the second highest increase on the entire list. This suggests it’s a smaller PNW city experiencing a similar, perhaps even more intense, rapid price acceleration relative to income than Portland.
• 5. Salt Lake City, Utah: Another rapidly growing Mountain West hub. Low vacancy (5.31%), high ratio (5.03), and a solid increase in that ratio (4.58%) point to a market where demand has likely outstripped the pace of new approvals (12.57), which aren't as high as Boise's despite similar growth pressures.
• 6. Denver, Colorado: A well-known expensive western city. Its metrics look similar to Salt Lake City – low vacancy (5.29%), high ratio (5.57 – tied with Portland as highest in the top 10!), and a decent ratio increase (4.09%). Approvals (12.53) aren't keeping pace with years of sustained demand and migration.
• 7. Washington, D.C.: The nation's capital makes the list. While its value-to-income ratio (4.46) and vacancy rate (5.36%) aren't the absolute worst on the list, its very low approvals rate (8.83) looks similar to Portland's and Bridgeport's. Building in a dense, established city like D.C. is notoriously challenging, and insufficient supply is clearly a major contributor to its housing stress.
• 8. New Haven, Connecticut: Another Connecticut city with a poor outlook. While its vacancy rate (7.88%) is higher and its value-to-income ratio (3.81) is lower than some others, New Haven faces the lowest rate of housing unit approvals among all the top 10 cities at just 4.28 per 1,000 units. Combine this with a notable increase in its value-to-income ratio (6.31%), and you see a market struggling with both limited new supply and rising relative costs.
• 9. Worcester, Massachusetts: Similar to other Northeast cities on the list. Worcester shows a pattern of low vacancy (5.70%), a moderate but challenging value-to-income ratio (4.18), and low housing unit approvals (6.49). Like Bridgeport and New Haven, the difficulty in adding new homes in this New England city seems to be a primary driver of its poor outlook.
• 10. Colorado Springs, Colorado: The second Colorado city on the list, just south of Denver. Looks like it's following a similar pattern: low vacancy (5.11%), a high value-to-income ratio (4.95), and a decent increase in that ratio (4.25%). Approvals (13.07) are slightly better than Denver's but perhaps still insufficient for a growing metro area.

Looking at this list, I see a few common threads: either you have cities experiencing massive, rapid population growth that supply hasn't caught up with (Boise, Spokane, Salt Lake City, Denver, Colorado Springs), or you have established, desirable metro areas with significant obstacles to building enough new housing to keep up with even moderate demand (Portland, Bridgeport, Washington D.C., New Haven, Worcester). In many cases, it's a combination of both. The low vacancy rates across the board in this top 10 are particularly telling – it means finding a place, any place, is just plain hard.

The Other Side of the Coin: Where the Outlook is Brighter

It's not all doom and gloom across the country. The same study points out that Southern metros, in general, seem to have a better housing crisis outlook. Metros like McAllen, Texas, Wilmington, North Carolina, and Winston-Salem, North Carolina, top the list for the best outlook.

Why? They tend to have higher vacancy rates (more options!), much lower home value-to-income ratios (homes cost less relative to typical salaries), and importantly, much higher rates of housing unit approvals (they are building a lot more homes!).

For example, McAllen, TX, has a home value-to-income ratio of just 2.37. That means a typical home costs less than two and a half times the typical income. Compare that to Portland's 5.57 or Denver's 5.57! McAllen also has a high approval rate (24.42 per 1,000 units). This suggests plenty of supply is entering the market, keeping prices and rents more in check.

But Wait, Unaffordability is Growing in Some Southern Spots Too

Now, here’s a crucial nuance. While the South might look better overall, the study also highlighted that affordability is decreasing rapidly in some Southern metros. Durham, NC, and Charlotte, NC, show some of the highest increases in their home value-to-income ratios (Durham was 8.60%, Charlotte was 7.20%). Spokane, WA, also had a very high increase at 7.17%.

What does this tell me? That rapid growth isn't exclusive to the West. Places experiencing significant economic development and population influx, even in the South where housing starts cheaper, are seeing prices climb faster than incomes. So, while they might have a better absolute outlook than Portland or Boise right now, they are quickly becoming less affordable than they were just a year ago. This reinforces the idea that while new supply is a key factor, overwhelming demand can still strain affordability, no matter the region.

A Note on Florida's High Vacancy

The study also pointed out that Florida has some of the highest vacancy rates – Cape Coral and North Port top that specific list with over 21% and 25% vacancy, respectively, followed by Wilmington, NC. These also happen to be places with very high housing unit approvals.

High vacancy sounds like a great sign for someone looking for a place, and it often means more options and potentially less competitive pricing. However, I also know that incredibly high vacancy rates, especially in places popular with retirees or investors, can sometimes indicate a large number of seasonal homes, vacation rentals, or properties held purely for investment rather than occupied by year-round residents.

While still adding to the overall supply numbers, this type of vacancy might not ease the pressure on the local long-term housing market as effectively as a low vacancy rate in a less touristy area might suggest. It can also mean less upward pressure on prices, which is great if you're buying today, but perhaps less exciting for someone hoping for rapid appreciation on their investment.

Navigating the Tough Markets: Tips for Homebuyers

Okay, seeing your city on the “worst outlook” list or just feeling the squeeze of the current market can be discouraging. But does it mean you should give up on your housing goals? Not necessarily. It means you need to be smart, patient, and strategic.

Here’s some advice, echoing what LendingTree’s expert Matt Schulz suggests, and adding my own perspective:

• Shop Around – For EVERYTHING: This goes beyond just comparing houses. Yes, view multiple properties and don't jump on the first one unless it's truly perfect and fits your budget. But also shop around for your mortgage lender and loan terms! Getting multiple loan estimates could save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. And think about shopping around locations, too. Maybe the absolute center of your target city is too expensive, but a nearby suburb or even a smaller town within commuting distance offers better value. I know it sounds simple, but comparing options across properties, financing, and geography is your best tool in a competitive market.
• Get Your Credit Score in Shape: This is non-negotiable. Your credit score is basically your financial handshake; it tells lenders how risky it is to lend you money. A higher score gets you access to better interest rates, and even a small difference in the interest rate can mean massive savings on a mortgage over 15 or 30 years. Pay bills on time, keep credit usage low, and check your report for errors. It takes discipline, but the payoff is huge, especially when borrowing a large amount for a home.
• Build a Solid Emergency Fund: Buying a home isn't just about the mortgage payment. There are taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs (and stuff will break!), potential HOA fees, and utilities that might cost more than you expect. Having a cushion of several months' worth of living expenses saved up is crucial. It prevents you from going into debt when the unexpected plumbing issue pops up or the roof needs emergency repairs. Homeownership is rewarding, but it comes with financial responsibility, and an emergency fund is your safety net.

My Final Thoughts

Looking at the data for 2025, it’s clear the housing challenges many people are facing aren't going away overnight, especially in the 10 metros identified with the worst outlook. The issues are complex – a mix of insufficient building for years, rapid population shifts, local regulations, and rising construction costs all play a role.

But understanding why these markets are struggling gives us a clearer picture. It’s not just random high prices; it’s a lack of supply meeting varying levels of demand, often amplified by homes becoming less affordable relative to local paychecks.

For someone in one of these areas – like Portland, Boise, or Bridgeport – it means being even more strategic and patient. It might mean saving longer for a down payment, potentially adjusting expectations about the size or location of a starter home, or being ready to act quickly when the right opportunity arises. It probably also means renting might be the more financially sensible option for longer than you initially hoped.

While the national headlines talk about the housing market generally, the real story is in the local markets like these top 10. They are facing unique pressures that will likely make the housing journey particularly difficult in the coming year compared to other parts of the country. Keeping informed and flexible is key to navigating whatever comes next.