Is it a good time to sell a house? Selling a house is a big decision that requires careful consideration, especially in today's uncertain economic climate. Given the dramatic rise in mortgage rates over the past year, this is a question on the minds of many sellers who are considering selling their homes.
The housing market has been heavily impacted by the rise in mortgage rates, causing many consumers to question whether now is a good time to sell their homes. Let's take a closer look at the factors that can influence whether it's a good time to sell your house.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index is a comprehensive metric that gauges consumer perceptions about the housing market. Comprising six distinct components, this index provides a holistic view of how people view the market conditions and their outlook for the future. The index is calculated from answers to questions about whether it's a good or bad time to buy or sell a house, expectations about home prices and mortgage rates, concerns about job loss, and changes in household income.
Is It a Good Time to Sell a House?
The question of whether it's a good time to sell a house seems to have a more positive outlook, with only 37% of consumers expressing that it's a “bad time” to sell. However, the broader economic concerns and frustrations related to housing affordability highlight the complexities and challenges in the current real estate landscape.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) for October revealed a concerning trend in consumer sentiment, with 85% of respondents expressing that it's a “bad time” to buy a home. This sentiment comes in the backdrop of frustrations related to housing unaffordability and an economy grappling with inflation.
Consumer Frustration and Economic Outlook
Survey-Record 78% Believe the Economy is on the ‘Wrong Track'
The HPSI remained largely flat, but consumer frustration towards housing unaffordability and inflation-driven economic concerns persisted. A staggering 78% of respondents believe the economy is on the “wrong track,” marking a 7 percentage point increase from the previous month. The primary reason cited for this belief is the pervasive impact of inflation on household finances.
Record 85% Believe It's a ‘Bad Time' to Buy a Home
A survey-record 85% of consumers indicated that it's a “bad time” to buy a home, attributing this sentiment to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. In contrast, only 37% of respondents believe it's a “bad time” to sell a home.
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, notes, “Consumers expressed even greater pessimism toward the larger economy this month, in addition to their ongoing frustration with the housing market.”
Component Highlights of the Home Purchase Sentiment Index
Good/Bad Time to Buy
- The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 16% to 15%.
- The percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 84% to 85%.
- The net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 2 percentage points month over month.
Good/Bad Time to Sell
- The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at 63%.
- The percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell remained unchanged at 37%.
- The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell remained unchanged month over month.
Home Price Expectations
- The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 42% to 40%.
- The percentage who say home prices will go down remained unchanged at 23%.
- The net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 2 percentage points month over month.
Mortgage Rate Expectations
- The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 17% to 16%.
- The percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 46% to 47%.
- The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
Job Loss Concern
- The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 75% to 78%.
- The percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 23% to 21%.
- The net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 5 percentage points month over month.
Household Income
- The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 18% to 20%.
- The percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from 13% to 10%.
- The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 5 percentage points month over month.
Expert Analysis and Future Projections
According to Doug Duncan, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, the consistent impact of inflation on consumer purchasing power, coupled with high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, is expected to prolong affordability challenges for potential homebuyers. Despite improvements in job security and household income, the prevailing sentiment remains pessimistic about the overall economy.
Should I Sell My House Now or Wait?
So, the question remains, should you sell your house in 2023 or wait until 2024? The answer is not straightforward, as it depends on a number of factors specific to your personal situation. Some of the key considerations are discussed below. Selling a house is a major decision that requires careful consideration of various factors, including market conditions, personal circumstances, and financial goals.
Assess Current Market Conditions
The first step in deciding whether to sell your house now or wait is to evaluate the current state of the real estate market in your area. Consider the following:
- Local Housing Market: Research recent sales data for homes similar to yours in your neighborhood. Are properties selling quickly or languishing on the market? A seller's market, characterized by high demand and low inventory, might be favorable for selling now.
- Home Prices: Monitor trends in home prices in your area. If prices have been steadily increasing, it could be an advantageous time to sell.
- Interest Rates: Keep an eye on mortgage interest rates. Lower rates might attract more buyers to the market, potentially leading to a quicker sale.
Evaluate Your Financial Goals
Your personal financial goals and needs play a significant role in the decision-making process:
- Profit Margin: Consider how much equity you have in your current home. If you've built substantial equity and can sell at a profit, it might be a good time to capitalize on your investment.
- Downsizing or Upsizing: Are you planning to downsize or upsize? Your plans for your next home can influence the timing of your sale. If you're downsizing, the current market conditions might align well with your goals.
Life Circumstances
Your personal circumstances should also be factored in:
- Job Relocation: If you're moving for a new job or career opportunity, the timing of your move might be determined by external factors.
- Family Changes: Life events like marriage, divorce, or growing families can impact your housing needs. Consider how your changing family circumstances play into your decision.
Market Trends and Projections
While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, researching market trends and projections can provide insights into potential market shifts. Consult with real estate professionals who can offer expert opinions on where the market might be headed.
Real estate professionals, including real estate agents and financial advisors, can offer invaluable guidance. An experienced real estate agent can provide a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to help you understand your home's value in the current market. Financial advisors can help you evaluate the financial implications of selling now versus waiting.
Examining the current housing market trends and data provided by Realtor.com, it's essential to evaluate whether it's an opportune moment to sell a house or if waiting might be a strategic move. Let's delve into the key findings to make an informed decision:
Market Trends and Analysis:
1. Home Listing Prices: Home listing prices are on an upward trend, influenced by higher mortgage rates and an ongoing existing home inventory crunch.
2. Affordability Challenges: The combination of high mortgage rates and elevated home prices is impacting homebuyer affordability, potentially affecting the demand for buying homes.
3. New Home Sales: Affordability concerns have led to a decline in new home sales, despite some relief from new construction.
4. Rental Market Trends: Decreasing rental prices are reducing the sense of urgency for potential homebuyers, leading more households to opt for renting and saving for future home purchases.
5. Optimal Timing for Buyers: Historical data indicates that the first week of October could be an optimal time for those determined to finalize their home purchases, with potential dips in home prices and increased housing inventory compared to the busy summer months.
Key Data Points:
- Median Listing Price: The median listing price has grown by 1.1% over the last year, maintaining a steady or upward trend.
- New Listings: New listings, indicating homes for sale, have consistently declined over the past 64 weeks, with a 7.5% decrease compared to the previous year.
- Active Inventory: The number of homes available for sale has lagged by 3.7% compared to the previous year, contributing to limited inventory.
- Days on Market: Homes are spending the same number of days on the market compared to the previous year, indicating a stable market despite affordability challenges.
Expert Insights and Recommendations:
Considering the upward trend in home listing prices and the ongoing challenges of high mortgage rates and limited inventory, potential sellers might find strategic advantages in waiting for the market to stabilize further. However, for those seeking to sell this year, the indicated optimal timing in early October could be beneficial.
It's crucial for potential sellers to carefully evaluate their individual circumstances, and market conditions, and consult with real estate experts to make an informed decision that aligns with their goals and objectives.
Conclusion: A Balanced Approach
Deciding whether to sell your house now or wait involves a careful evaluation of the market data and your individual circumstances. The current real estate landscape appears to offer some advantages to sellers due to limited inventory and potential pricing power. However, it's essential to consider your financial goals, personal timeline, and local market conditions when making this decision. Consulting with a real estate professional who can interpret the data in the context of your specific situation can help you make an informed choice that aligns with your needs and objectives.
Sources
- https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey
- https://www.realtor.com/research/articles/
