Norada Real Estate Investments

Absorption Rate and Months of Inventory in Real Estate

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Absorption rates and months of inventory in real estate. What are they, and why are they significant? This information is useful since it represents the liquidity of a market. As a real estate investor, you can help maximize your profits by knowing the liquidity of a given real estate market. By knowing the liquidity of a market, you will better understand that market and therefore be able to take advantage of the various buying strategies afforded by it.

One of the measurements frequently used to gauge the liquidity of a given market is the absorption rate. This is basically the rate at which a specific segment of a real estate market sells in a given time frame. These segments are usually categorized by price range but may also be categorized by property type. The absorption rate can assist sellers to determine the optimal price for a property. The absorption rate is useful information for buyers as well because it indicates the extent to which a seller may be willing to lower their asking price or make other concessions.

Absorption Rate Formula

The easiest way to understand absorption is to put it in more tangible terms and measure it in “Months of Inventory”. In other words, we take the number of active listings and divide it by the total number of sold transactions within the same month to give us the months of inventory.

To calculate the months of inventory for any given market:

  • Find the total number of active listings on the market last month.
  • Find the total number of sold transactions for last month.
  • Divide the number of active listings by the number of sales to determine the number of months of inventory remaining.

Supply-DemandAs a general rule, 5 to 6 months of inventory is considered to be a normal or balanced market. Over 6 months of inventory and we have a buyer’s market. If it is less than 5 months and we have a seller’s market. The smaller the available inventory, the tighter the market is. Keep in mind that these are simply guidelines and will differ from market to market.

For example, let’s say there were 8,000 active listings last month and 1,000 closed transactions. That leaves us 8 months of inventory remaining on the market and also tells us that we are in a buyer’s market.

If you are in the market looking to buy, calculating the months of inventory can give you an indication of how negotiable sellers might be. A large number, say 12 months or more, would mean that sellers have a high level of competition and will probably be more flexible on their sales price and terms.

On the other hand, if you are a seller trying to sell your property, the months of inventory will give you an indication of the level of competition you will face. Selling in a buyer’s market will require you to put some serious thought into your pricing strategy and any incentives you may want to offer.

National Economic Outlook (September 2013)

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The rate of annual job growth in August, 1.7 percent, was basically the same as in previous months. We had better get used to the idea that this is the new normal, because there probably won't be much help from the lagging government and construction sectors.

Budget difficulties will prevent any meaningful increase in government spending, even though local and state revenues are now in better shape. The recession revealed the extent of unfunded pension liabilities for public employees, which will absorb any extra dollars.

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National Economic Outlook (August 2013)

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The pace of job growth in July was unchanged from the 1.7 percent annual rate of previous months, but the details suggest an economy that will do modestly better for the rest of the year. Most importantly, jobs in business services were up 3.5 percent from last year.

Business services is one of the largest sectors of the economy, on a par with health care and government, and bigger than retail or manufacturing. Earlier this year it was growing at a 3 percent rate, in the last few months around 3.5 percent; it seems only a small increase but it means that businesses are expanding again.

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National Economic Outlook (June 2013)

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The economic recession only lasted a year, but there wasn't a recovery for homes because prices had climbed much too high and builders had built way too many of them. Prices had to fall, not just back to a “normal” level, but to an even lower level so that the large inventory of excess homes could be moved – a sort of clearance sale. We're not yet done with that sale – see the large number of mortgages still delinquent – but enough has been cleared out so that prices can drift up to a more normal level.

 

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20 Best Markets for Buying Single Family Rentals

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Best-of-the-BestWhile buying single family rental properties has become the darling investment strategy of Wall Street, it may not always make sense for individual real estate investors — particularly in some markets already picked over by the large institutional investors. But there are still markets where the numbers work for the conservative, individual investor looking to purchase foreclosures and other homes as single family investment properties.

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California Counties Top The List In The US Foreclosure Statistics

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california foreclosure statisticsCalifornia Foreclosure Statistics

With Inland Empire foreclosures at pre-recession lows, Riverside County's foreclosure rate dropped to No. 21 statewide in April. A total 1,403 mortgage default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions were recorded in April, meaning 1 in 566 households was in some stage of foreclosure, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac.

Of those, 45 were from Palm Desert, according to data provided by the organization to Palm Desert Patch. In Palm Desert:

  • One out of every 538 households received a foreclosure filing in April
  • That number was down by about 25% from March 2013, and down 55% from last April.
  • In April 2012, 100 households had been in default.

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U.S. Population Shifts

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People were on the move in 2012 and apparently the most popular place for them to move to was Pittsburgh, PA., according to the 2012 Top US Growth Cities Report recently released by U-Haul International.  The Steel City topped the list of 30 metro areas selected with a 9.04% population growth, based on data collected by U-Haul from over 1.6 million one-way truck rentals during a recent 12 month period.

The cities chosen for the list had more than 5,000 families moving in or out of the area during that time.   “Growth cities were then determined by calculating the percentage of inbound moves vs. outbound moves for each area,” said John Taylor, president of U-Haul International, Inc.   Other cities in the U-Haul top 10 included:
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Tennessee Foreclosures Down

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In Shelby County, there were 1,030 total foreclosures in the first quarter this year, according to real estate information company Chandler Reports.  That’s down from 1,252 foreclosures during the same period in 2012 – a drop of 17%.  Pull back one year before that, though, and the number of foreclosures had spiked to 1,235 in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 964 in the first quarter of 2011. At this time last year, in other words, the area was in the midst of a 30% gain in foreclosures.  Pointing to the recent drop, some local brokers and Realtors say a combination of forces is at work. There’s been a small improvement in the economy, which helps. Banks also are increasingly pursuing workouts, loan modifications and short sales.

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Phoenix is Facing a Housing Shortage

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A Phoenix home with 95 bids is just one example of a housing market entering a new and unprecedented phase.  Experts at Arizona State University School of Business say Phoenix is headed for a major housing shortage.

Long gone are the days when Phoenix was riddled with available, well-built single-family homes in the wake of the 2008 housing market bust.

Five years after the crash, the desert metro is facing lagging home construction, predictions of population growth and rising land prices, according to real estate experts with ASU.

The end result could be a significant housing shortage in the near future, experts contend.

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Zombie Foreclosures

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Hundreds of thousands of homes in the US are now labeled as “zombie” foreclosures. That's when the owner of a foreclosed home leaves only to find out years later that he or she still legally owns the home and is on the hook for property taxes and other fees. Such cases occur in more than a third of foreclosures, industry figures show.

Although it's hard to quantify exactly how many homes fall into the category, real estate information company RealtyTrac says that, in the first three months of the year, roughly 302,000 homes qualified as “zombie” properties because the owner has moved out, but the bank has not yet taken possession.

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