Norada Real Estate Investments

Housing: Is It Becoming a Seller's Market?

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The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday what home buyers and real estate investors in many parts of the United States have known for months: it’s becoming a seller’s market.

The number of homes listed for sale in January fell by 4.9%, leaving 1.74 million properties on the market. That’s the lowest since December of 1999, when there were 1.71 million homes on the market. By contrast, there were 2.91 million homes on the market two years ago at this time.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, home sales rose by just 0.4% in January, to an annual rate of 4.92 million units. Still, that’s up from 9.1% one year ago.

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National Economic Outlook (February 2013)

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Home construction rarely matches the actual demand for new homes, which can change quickly – there's often too much or too little. Because the US population grows one percent per year about 1.5 million new homes are needed every year. During the boom of the mid-2000s, two million homes were built per year; at the bottom of the bust, that number was 600,000.

In 2012, construction was up to 800,000 homes. This is a clear indicator that demand is even higher and will continue higher for years. Home prices will be rising even when more construction takes place. The economic effect is self-reinforcing because most of the cost of building a new home is in the wages paid to the workers, who in turn can afford a better home for themselves or spend money on cars and other stuff.

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National Economic Outlook (December 2012)

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It's becoming clear to me that what we've been thinking of as a stage in the recovery actually is the recovery. Job growth at a 1.5 percent annual rate is well below our hopes from previous cycles but its getting hard to imagine faster growth unless the government starts spending more money (ha-ha) or consumers like their finances enough to start clamoring for new homes.

In November, jobs increased by 1.4 percent from last year and unemployment eased to 7.7 percent, basically no change from what we've seen the last six months. Jobs were up 1.4 percent in manufacturing, 1.5 percent in retail trade, 3 percent in business services, 2.2 percent in health care, and 2.7 percent at restaurants. Jobs in government and construction were flat.

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Mortgage Interest Deduction on the Chopping Block?

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A tax break that has long been untouchable could soon be in for some serious scrutiny. Many home buyers deduct their mortgage interest when assessing their tax bill, a perk that has helped bolster the income of millions of families – and the broader housing market. But as President Obama and Congress try to hash out a deal to reduce the budget deficit, the mortgage interest deduction will likely be part of the discussion.

Limits on a broad array of deductions could emerge in any budget deal.  It is likely that any caps would be structured to aim at high-income households, and would diminish or end the mortgage tax break for many of those taxpayers.

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5 Reasons Real Estate Prices Have Been Rising

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Home prices rose by 0.1% in September from the prior month and by 3.6% from one year ago, the largest gain in six years, according to a report released Monday by Lender Processing Services.

Compared with one year ago, prices are up by 17.7% in Phoenix, the largest gain among the nation’s 40 largest metro areas. Other notable year-over-year increases include Detroit (11.7%), Las Vegas (11.5%), San Jose, Calif. (11.3%), San Francisco (10%), and Sacramento (8.3%).

Among the top 40 metros, only a handful have posted year-over-year declines, led by St. Louis, which was down by 4.1%. Bridgeport, Conn., was down by 2.3%, while Chicago (-0.5%) and Cincinnati (-0.1%) also posted declines.

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The Real Estate Indicator Screaming "Buy"

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Buy Real Estate NowI just locked down a 2.875% interest rate, fixed for the 15-year term of the mortgage. No points. With rates like these, I find myself rethinking the idea that I want to pay off my mortgage.

I can do a lot better than 2.875% investing the money. If I just sock it away in gold, I bet I’ll come out way ahead. Finding investments that clear such a low hurdle is not that difficult.

Right now is a great time to do this, if looked at from a historical perspective. The 10-year Treasury rate is 1.64% as I write. That is what investors are willing to accept to lend money to the US Treasury for a 10-year term. It seems absolutely crazy. But the Treasury rate we see is something of a forced smile.

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Top US Real Estate Markets for Foreign Buyers

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Wealthy foreigners from around the globe are taking advantage of America's housing bust to snap up U.S. properties at cut-rate prices — helping local markets rebound in the process.

“We've seen foreign investors buy $10 million to $20 million worth of property in a single trip,” says Peter Loewy of Los Angeles-based Teles Properties. “They think this is a good place to park money, and it's less expensive than their real estate back home.”

A recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) study estimated that foreigners and immigrants who've lived here less than two years spent $82.5 billion on U.S. investment property in the 12 months ended March 31, 2012.  That's about 9% of the total paid for all U.S. housing purchases during the period.

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Housing Under a Second Obama Administration

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A big part of my job is helping our clients project the most likely scenarios for the housing market.  Now that we know who will be President, my job just got easier because we have four years of experience with Obama and a divided Congress, so we know what we are getting.

However, there is never a dull moment.

Here is what keeps me up at night:

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65% of Housing Markets Worse Than Four Years Ago

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Sixty-five percent of U.S. housing markets are worse off today than they were four years ago according to the California-based real estate research firm RealtyTrac.

The results of the survey arrive the same day as the final presidential debate and just weeks before the general election.

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