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On the Trail of the Housing Recovery

June 25, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One crisp fall Sunday afternoon under bright blue skies, my wife and I visited five homes up for sale. We remembered them by their street names: Big Acre, Blue Silo, Pontiac, Prairie Rose and Lamont. The lineup has a poetic ring to it, but the real music is the potential rates of return from owning them and renting them out.

This was the second weekend we went hunting. It’s been a fascinating experience so far, and what I’ve found tells me the housing recovery is not too far off, despite all the dire talk to the contrary. The investment implications are many and varied.

Being bullish on housing is a contrarian view. In a recent national survey, 37% of homeowners say they think buying a house is a “risky investment.” And 86% think prices will either stay flat or fall.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, housing recovery, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

Real Estate Cycles: Where Are We Now?

June 12, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

Real estate prices, as with most financial markets, tend to follow a pattern. For the purpose of this article, we'll call this pattern “The Real Estate Cycle.” There are many theories out there about The Real Estate Cycle, but the one I like best is called “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle.”

Back in the 1930's a real estate economist named Homer Hoyt discovered that real estate prices seemed to ebb and flow on an almost perfect 18 year schedule. Hoyt's theory was later used and refined by now famed economist Fred E. Foldvary to predict the real estate crash of 2008. I'll get into more depth about “The Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle” shortly, but to me the important part isn't necessarily the 18 year time frame, it is understanding that the real estate market operates in a fairly predictable cycle that can be seen and taken advantage of by smart investors.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Cycles, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

National Economic Outlook (June 2012)

June 4, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

The Wall Street Journal this week said, Grim Job Report Sinks Markets. The bold headline suggests an economy in retreat. After all, it's an election year. But the May job numbers look like more of the same moderate growth we've been getting in recent months.

Overall, jobs were up 1.4 percent in the past year, right in line with the growth rates of previous months. Manufacturing jobs were up 2 percent, including an 8 percent increase in cars. Retail jobs were up just 1 percent but, significantly, jobs at furniture stores were up 2.4 percent. Jobs at restaurants and bars were up 3 percent. Conclusion: consumers are buying big-ticket items and are treating themselves to small luxuries, important signs of optimism.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Market, US economy

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?  (Part 2)

May 21, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

In Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? part 1, we stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to stable, steady long-term inflation.

But what about all this talk of hyper-inflation?

There are some doom-and-gloomers out there heralding hyper-inflation.  Hyper-inflation means you wake up in the morning and a pound of coffee is $5, but when you go back that afternoon, it’s $7 and by the following morning it’s $10.  In other words, the dollar is in free fall and it takes more and more dollars to buy the same goods and services.  It’s happened many times in other countries in just the last 50 years.  It’s ugly, especially for those who don’t know how to see it coming, how to prepare and what to do when it happens.

Now we understand the argument for hyper-inflation and it’s a good one.  So let’s take a look at why real estate right now makes so much sense.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?

May 15, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

When we interviewed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago, he told us that NOW is a great time to get into real estate – and he specifically pointed to houses.

Fellow billionaire, Warren Buffett, appeared on CNBC a couple of months ago and essentially said the same thing.  In fact, he said if there was an efficient way to do it, he'd like to buy 200,000 single family homes!

You may or may not agree with them at first blush, but when two billionaires (neither of whom are trying to sell you houses) both say the same thing, it's probably worth taking a closer look, don't you think?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Could This Be the Best Real Estate Market in 5 Years?

April 23, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

I've spoken many times on my radio show about how fear is used to move us. Well, recently I spotted a great example. Just last week I wrote about how a mortgage “expert” was predicting a “death spiral” in the housing market. That was last week. This week, the National Association of Realtors is saying that the housing market in 2012 will be the strongest in five years. February was actually a 9.2 percent increase in home sales from last year.

For most people those two things wouldn't compute, especially since the “expert” I quoted last week was predicting a 6 percent reduction in housing prices in 2012. This just all goes to show you something I've said for a long time: don't believe the doom and gloom.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Appreciating Markets, Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, US economy

Median Rent Prices on the Rise as Home Values Drop

March 19, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

While homes prices continue to be on the decline, rent prices are actually on the rise and showed a 3 percent increase from January 2011 to January 2012, as opposed to home values, which dropped 4.6 percent during that same period, according to a recent Zillow Real Estate Market Report.

“While it seems that rents are rising at the expense of home values, the opposite is true. A thriving rental market will stimulate home sales as investors snap up low-priced inventory to convert to rentals,” said chief economist for Zillow Dr. Stan Humphries in a release.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, rental market

Real Estate Investors Can Profit in a Down Market

February 14, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

One of the most exciting things about being a real estate investor is knowing what markets will produce the greatest long-term returns – especially while in the middle of a challenging housing market.

In a down market, savvy real estate investors are eager to find out how they can best leverage their resources. And expert forecasts are some of the best tools they can use to back up their strategies. A good example comes from real estate consulting firm John Burns Real Estate (JBRE), which has recently predicted that homeownership will fall from 70.0 percent to 62.1 percent by 2015 due to a weak economy, weak consumer confidence, limited mortgage availability, higher rates of foreclosures and short sales, and other factors.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Bubble, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

Benefits of US Property for International Investors

January 19, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

flags_globe[1]For many individuals, the single largest “investment” of their lives will usually be their home, as opposed to investing stock, bonds, mutual funds or certificates of deposits (CD’s). This is because purchasing real estate is less risky than investing in the stock market and can be more rewarding than changing CD interest rates.

US investment property has been enticing foreign investors since the 1970s, and has become extremely attractive since 2008 based on the weakening of the US dollar.  Many financial institutions in this country are reluctant, if not somewhat skeptical, of providing mortgages to foreign investors who want to finance real property here in the US.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, USA Housing Market, USA Investment Property, USA Real Estate

The Housing Bust is Over

January 16, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

“The bursting of the global housing bubble is only halfway through,” The Economist magazine wrote recently.

I disagree…

Here in the U.S. at least, the housing bubble is completely over.

It drives me nuts when I hear commentators say, “We're halfway through,” and, “We have more pain to come.”

The fact is, right now, houses in America are the best value they've been in many generations. It's not hard to understand…

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Bubble, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, The Economist

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