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What Drives the Real Estate Market?

April 10, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

What Drives the Real Estate Market?

The real estate market is a complex and dynamic system influenced by a variety of factors. These factors can have a profound impact on property values, investment potential, and market activity. Here, we explore the primary drivers that shape the real estate landscape.

Real Estate Key Drivers and Trends

1. Demographics

Demographics represent the statistical data of a population, including age, race, gender, income, migration patterns, and population growth. These elements are crucial as they dictate housing needs. For instance, the aging baby boomer generation has influenced the market for retirement homes and downsizing trends, while millennials may drive demand for rentals and starter homes.

2. Interest Rates

The cost of borrowing is significantly affected by interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of obtaining a mortgage, thereby increasing the affordability of homes and stimulating market activity. Conversely, higher rates can constrain buyers' budgets and cool down the market.

3. Economic Indicators

The overall health of the economy, indicated by GDP growth, employment rates, and consumer spending, directly affects real estate demand. A robust economy typically encourages more real estate activity as people have more income to invest in property.

4. Government Policies and Subsidies

Legislation, tax incentives, and subsidies can either promote or discourage real estate investment. For example, tax deductions for mortgage interest can make home buying more attractive, while zoning laws can limit development and affect property prices.

In addition to these core factors, local market conditions, global economic trends, and technological advancements also play significant roles in driving the real estate market. For investors and homeowners alike, understanding these factors is essential for making informed decisions and anticipating future trends in the real estate sector.

Predicting Real Estate Market Trends

Real estate market trends are influenced by a myriad of factors that interplay to shape the future of the industry. Predicting these trends requires a deep understanding of the various forces at work and the ability to interpret data and indicators that can signal changes in the market. Here's a comprehensive guide to help you predict real estate market trends effectively.

1. Understand the Key Factors

The real estate market is driven by several key factors, including demographics, interest rates, economic indicators, and government policies. By understanding how these factors affect the market, you can begin to make educated predictions about future trends.

2. Stay Informed on Economic Indicators

Economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment rates, and consumer spending provide insight into the overall health of the economy and its impact on real estate demand. Keeping a close eye on these indicators can help you anticipate market shifts.

3. Analyze Historical Data

Historical data on property prices, market cycles, and inventory levels can reveal patterns and trends that may repeat in the future. Analyzing this data can provide a foundation for predicting market behavior.

4. Monitor Interest Rates

Interest rates have a significant impact on the affordability of real estate. Changes in interest rates can influence buyer behavior and property demand, making it a crucial factor to watch.

5. Observe Demographic Shifts

Demographic changes, such as population growth or the aging of a generation, can have long-term effects on the types of properties in demand. Paying attention to these shifts can inform predictions on which real estate segments will grow or shrink.

6. Keep an Eye on Government Policies

Government policies, subsidies, and tax incentives can either encourage or discourage real estate investment. Staying updated on policy changes can help you understand their potential impact on the market.

7. Leverage Technology and Data Analytics

Utilizing technology to analyze data can uncover trends and patterns that may not be immediately apparent. Data analytics tools can help you make more accurate predictions by processing large volumes of information.

8. Build a Network of Experts

Surrounding yourself with knowledgeable individuals in the real estate industry can provide you with insights and perspectives that enhance your ability to predict trends.

9. Consider Local Market Conditions

Real estate markets can vary greatly by location. Understanding the dynamics of your specific target market, including supply and demand, can improve the accuracy of your predictions.

10. Assess Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment can be a leading indicator of market trends. Monitoring surveys, social media, and forums can give you a sense of buyer and seller attitudes and expectations.

By combining these strategies and maintaining a vigilant eye on the market, you can develop a well-rounded approach to predicting real estate trends. Remember, while no method guarantees absolute accuracy, using a comprehensive and informed strategy increases your chances of making successful predictions.

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing

What is Cash on Cash Return in Real Estate?

May 11, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Cash on Cash Return

Cash on cash return (CoC) is a measure of the cash flow from a real estate investment, expressed as a percentage of the initial cash investment. It is used to evaluate the profitability of a rental property or other real estate investment. A high cash-on-cash return indicates that the investment is generating a good return on the initial cash investment.

Low cash on cash return indicates that the investment is not generating as much cash flow as expected. The cash-on-cash return of an investment property is a measurement of its cash flow divided by the amount of capital you initially invested. This is usually calculated on the before-tax cash flow and is typically expressed as a percentage.

Cash-on-cash returns are most accurate when calculated on the first year's expected cash flow. It becomes less accurate and less useful when used in future years because this calculation does not take into account the time value of money (the principle that your money today will be worth less in the future). Therefore, the cash-on-cash return is not a powerful measurement, but it makes for an easy and popular “quick check” on a property to compare it against other investments.

For example, a property might give you a 7% cash return in the first year versus a 2.5% return on a bank CD. It's worth noting that cash on cash return is a short-term metric, it doesn't take into account the long-term appreciation of the property, and it doesn't include tax benefits. Therefore, it should be used in conjunction with other metrics, such as the cap rate, to evaluate the overall performance of a real estate investment.

The cash-on-cash return is calculated by dividing the annual cash flow by your cash invested:

       Annual Cash Flow / Cash Invested  =  Cash-on-Cash Return

The annual cash flow is the net income from the property, which is calculated by subtracting the annual operating expenses (such as mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) from the annual rental income. The initial cash investment is the total amount of cash invested in the property, including the down payment, closing costs, and any other expenses.

Let's make sure we understand the two parts of this equation:

  1. The first-year cash flow (or annual cash flow) is the amount of money we expect the property to generate during its first year of operation. Again, this is usually cash flow before tax.

  2. The initial investment (or cash invested) is generally the down payment. However, some investors include their closing costs such as loan points, escrow and title fees, appraisal, and inspection costs.  The sum of which is also referred to as the cost of acquisition.

Let's look at an example. Let's say that your property's annual cash flow (before tax) is $3,000. And let's say that you made a 20% down payment equal to $30,000 to purchase the property. In this example, your cash-on-cash return would be 10%.

     $3,000 / $30,000  =  10%

Although the cash-on-cash return is quick and easy to calculate, it's not the best way to measure the performance and quality of a real estate investment. Future articles will introduce you to better ways to evaluate your real estate investments.

What is a Good Cash Cash Return in Real Estate?

There are no hard and fast rules for determining a specific figure that should be considered a good cash-on-cash return. Most investors, however, agree that a projected cash-on-cash return of 8% or higher is the ideal figure. It also relies on the investor, the local market, and your future value appreciation forecasts. Some real estate investors are happy with a safe and predictable CoC return of 7% – 10%, while others will only consider a property with a cash-on-cash return of at least 15%.

Cash on Cash Return Vs ROI

Cash on cash return (CoC) and return on investment (ROI) are both measures of the profitability of a real estate investment, but they are calculated differently and provide different information. Cash on cash return is a measure of the cash flow from a real estate investment, expressed as a percentage of the initial cash investment. It is used to evaluate the profitability of a rental property or other real estate investment.

Return on investment (ROI) is a measure of the overall profitability of an investment, expressed as a percentage of the total investment. It takes into account both the cash flow and the appreciation of the investment.

The formula for ROI is: (Net profit / Total investment) x 100

The net profit is the total return on the investment, which includes the cash flow, any appreciation, and any other income from the investment. The total investment is the initial cash investment plus any additional costs, such as closing costs, repairs, and improvements.

For example, if an investor purchases a property for $200,000 with a $40,000 down payment, the property generates $12,000 in annual cash flow and the investor sells the property for $220,000, the ROI would be: ($12,000 + $20,000 / $40,000) x 100 = 80%

Cash on cash return provides information on the short-term cash flow of the investment, while ROI provides information on the overall profitability of the investment, including both cash flow and appreciation. It's important to use both metrics to get a full picture of the investment's performance.

Cash on Cash Return Vs Cap Rate

Cash on cash return is a measure of the annual cash flow of a rental property as a percentage of the initial cash investment. The capitalization rate, or cap rate, is a measure of the rate of return on a real estate investment property based on the income that the property is expected to generate. While both measures are used to evaluate the performance of real estate investments, they are calculated differently and provide different information about the potential returns of a property.

Although there are many variations, the cap rate is generally calculated as the ratio between the annual rental income produced by a real estate asset to its current market value. Cap rates are measures used to estimate and compare the rates of return on multiple commercial or residential real estate properties. In contrast to the cap rate formula, which should only be used to compare similar properties in the same market, the cash-on-cash return formula can be used to compare potential cash returns across real estate markets.

To calculate the cap rate for a rental property, you will need to know the property's net operating income (NOI) and its purchase price or current market value. The formula for calculating the cap rate is:

Cap Rate = NOI / Purchase Price (or Market Value)

For example, let's say you are considering buying a rental property for $300,000 and the projected net operating income (NOI) is $30,000. To calculate the cap rate, you would divide the NOI by the purchase price:

Cap Rate = $30,000 / $300,000 = 0.1 or 10%

So in this example, the cap rate for the property is 10%. This means that the property's projected net operating income is 10% of its purchase price. A higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, so in this case, you would likely see the rental property as a good investment opportunity.

Filed Under: Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Cash on Cash Return, Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

Absorption Rate and Months of Inventory in Real Estate

December 6, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Absorption rates and months of inventory in real estate. What are they, and why are they significant? This information is useful since it represents the liquidity of a market. As a real estate investor, you can help maximize your profits by knowing the liquidity of a given real estate market. By knowing the liquidity of a market, you will better understand that market and therefore be able to take advantage of the various buying strategies afforded by it.

One of the measurements frequently used to gauge the liquidity of a given market is the absorption rate. This is basically the rate at which a specific segment of a real estate market sells in a given time frame. These segments are usually categorized by price range but may also be categorized by property type. The absorption rate can assist sellers to determine the optimal price for a property. The absorption rate is useful information for buyers as well because it indicates the extent to which a seller may be willing to lower their asking price or make other concessions.

Absorption Rate Formula

The easiest way to understand absorption is to put it in more tangible terms and measure it in “Months of Inventory”. In other words, we take the number of active listings and divide it by the total number of sold transactions within the same month to give us the months of inventory.

To calculate the months of inventory for any given market:

  • Find the total number of active listings on the market last month.
  • Find the total number of sold transactions for last month.
  • Divide the number of active listings by the number of sales to determine the number of months of inventory remaining.

Supply-DemandAs a general rule, 5 to 6 months of inventory is considered to be a normal or balanced market. Over 6 months of inventory and we have a buyer’s market. If it is less than 5 months and we have a seller’s market. The smaller the available inventory, the tighter the market is. Keep in mind that these are simply guidelines and will differ from market to market.

For example, let’s say there were 8,000 active listings last month and 1,000 closed transactions. That leaves us 8 months of inventory remaining on the market and also tells us that we are in a buyer’s market.

If you are in the market looking to buy, calculating the months of inventory can give you an indication of how negotiable sellers might be. A large number, say 12 months or more, would mean that sellers have a high level of competition and will probably be more flexible on their sales price and terms.

On the other hand, if you are a seller trying to sell your property, the months of inventory will give you an indication of the level of competition you will face. Selling in a buyer’s market will require you to put some serious thought into your pricing strategy and any incentives you may want to offer.

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market, housing supply, Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment, Real Estate Market

8 Tips To Becoming A Successful Landlord

December 31, 2018 by Marco Santarelli

How To Become A LandlordHow To Become A Landlord

The ultimate goal of investing in rental property is to turn a profit.  To ensure that you achieve that goal it is essential that you follow several critical guidelines. Most of us dream of becoming a landlord but it an easy or a difficult job? Before you start searching for a home to rent, you should think about the responsibility that comes with being a landlord to your tenants. If you’re interested in investing in real estate, the single-family rental market might be a good option. Being a landlord can be a profitable venture that provides a steady income stream while your property appreciates in value. You might also be able to enjoy certain tax advantages while you build equity in the home.

Here are 8 valuable tips for becoming a successful landlord and start a rental property business.

1. Screen Your Tenants

First, always make sure that you check tenant references. This is the first step of becoming a successful landlord. This can be a burdensome step and many landlords overlook it because they feel as though they have good instinct when they meet with the tenant.  But not checking references can lead to a number of problems later on.  You will uncover a wealth of information about potential problems before you rent to a prospective tenant. It’s also worth the time to do a background and credit check on all potential tenants. There are several online tenant-screening services available, and you should be sure to check potential tenants’ credit scores. You should also conduct an interview to make sure you’re comfortable interacting with them, and check references, especially from employers or past landlords.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Property Management, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?  (Part 2)

May 21, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

In Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now? part 1, we stated that the Federal Reserve is committed to stable, steady long-term inflation.

But what about all this talk of hyper-inflation?

There are some doom-and-gloomers out there heralding hyper-inflation.  Hyper-inflation means you wake up in the morning and a pound of coffee is $5, but when you go back that afternoon, it’s $7 and by the following morning it’s $10.  In other words, the dollar is in free fall and it takes more and more dollars to buy the same goods and services.  It’s happened many times in other countries in just the last 50 years.  It’s ugly, especially for those who don’t know how to see it coming, how to prepare and what to do when it happens.

Now we understand the argument for hyper-inflation and it’s a good one.  So let’s take a look at why real estate right now makes so much sense.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

Why are Billionaires Buffett and Trump Bullish on Real Estate Right Now?

May 15, 2012 by Marco Santarelli

When we interviewed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago, he told us that NOW is a great time to get into real estate – and he specifically pointed to houses.

Fellow billionaire, Warren Buffett, appeared on CNBC a couple of months ago and essentially said the same thing.  In fact, he said if there was an efficient way to do it, he'd like to buy 200,000 single family homes!

You may or may not agree with them at first blush, but when two billionaires (neither of whom are trying to sell you houses) both say the same thing, it's probably worth taking a closer look, don't you think?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Donald Trump, Economy, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Inflation Hedge, Investment Properties, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market, Rental Properties, Warren Buffett

New Investment Condos – 30 Month Lease-Back with Positive Cash-Flow

February 17, 2009 by Marco Santarelli

We just announced our latest real estate investment opportunity located in Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

Predicted by CNN Money to average 5% annual appreciation for the next 5 years. Forbes rated the Go Zone market as one of the Top 3 areas to invest, and Realtor.com rated the Mississippi gulf coast as the number one appreciating market of 2008.

This investment opportunity features a unique 30-month lease-back program that covers 100% of your mortgage payment, property taxes, homeowner association fees, management fees, maintenance costs, and utilities!

We also have several lending options available including some private financing options with 90% to 100% fininacing.

The investment is also Go Zone qualified for the 50% “bonus depreciation” provided by the IRS.

Visit our website and download the FREE Property Info-Pak for complete details, or just click here: Ocean Springs Investment Condos.

Filed Under: Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investments Tagged With: Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

What You Should Know About HUD Properties

November 18, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

imageHUD properties are available all over the United States, and make great investments for anybody that is interested. These homes often get a bad rap for being in bad condition, but in all actuality they are not any worse than other foreclosed homes that are available. Just like anything else, there are some HUD properties that are in good condition, and some that are in need of repairs. It is simply a matter of how well the past owner cared for the home.

HUD properties are homes that had loans which were insured by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). But when the owner fails to live up to the financial obligations that are expected, the bank then takes over the home and it becomes an HUD property. At this point, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is in charge of repaying the lender any money that they lost on the deal. So as you can see, the Department of Housing and Urban Development sticks their neck on the line when they insure the loans on these homes; if the owner doesn’t pay, they are stuck with owing money to the lender.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Foreclosures, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: HUD Properties, Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

The Perfect Storm to Buy Real Estate

October 6, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

This may be the most amazing buyer’s market in decades!

Think about it.  Interest rates are at historic lows.  Housing inventories are at 20-year highs.  Nationally, housing prices have dropped 16.3% since last year.  Sellers of every kinds (home owners, investors, builders, and developers) are motivated to sell their property to liquidate or stay liquid in these tough economic times.

I’m sure most of you have heard these stats before:  Only 2% of retirees will be financially independent by age 65, while the other 98% rely on family, the government or a job to get by financially.

If you want to make a fortune in real estate, and I’m talking about millions of dollars, then now is the time to buy!  Forget about the uncertainties of the stock market and worrying about a recession.  Now is the time to position yourself for real wealth simply by buying real estate in growth markets around the country.

If you’re not sure how to get started then call me.  I will help point you in the right direction.

Filed Under: Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

How to Get Your Investment Down Payment

September 30, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

How to Get Your Investment Down PaymentReal estate has always been the fastest and safest investment vehicle to acquire wealth and reach millionaire status.  But without a down payment your real estate investment goals will be difficult to achieve.

Every year that you don't invest will cost you money in lost opportunity.  So where do you get your down payment?  How do you do it?    [Read more…]

Filed Under: Financing, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Down Payment, Investment Properties, Investment Property, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investment

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