Current Albuquerque Housing Market Trends and 2026 Forecast

Well, let me give you the straightforward answer right up front: The current Albuquerque housing market trends and forecast show we are transitioning out of the extreme, overheated Seller’s Market of 2021-2023. Home prices are stabilizing and even showing slight month-over-month decreases, sales are slowing down, and buyers finally have a bit more breathing room.

Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, I predict a continued slow drift toward a more balanced market, provided mortgage rates hold steady or decline slightly. Buyers should expect less frenzied competition, but sellers who price their homes realistically will still do just fine.

But this summary only tells half the story. To really understand what’s happening, we need to dive deep into the numbers. We need to look at who has the power in the negotiation right now, and what that means for your pocketbook.

Current Albuquerque Housing Market Trends

The data tells a fascinating story of a market hitting a speed bump, not a wall. We have seen sustained pressure on prices and inventory since the pandemic began, but recent months suggest the pressure cooker lid is starting to hiss.

I rely on data from several sources, but the most recent numbers from Realtor.com (reflecting September 2025 figures, reported in October 2025) are particularly telling. Here is what I am seeing on the ground and what the statistics confirm:

What’s Happening with Home Prices?

One of the most important metrics to watch is the median listing price—it tells us what the typical home is going for. For a long time, this number only went up. Not anymore.

According to the latest data, the median listing price in Albuquerque settled at $386,695 in September 2025. What’s critical about this number isn't the total value, but the direction it's moving.

• Month-over-Month Drop: This figure represents a slight decrease from the month before. In my experience watching the ABQ market for years, September is usually when we see prices tick up slightly after the summer rush. A decrease, even a small one, signals that sellers are realizing they can’t push prices as high as they did in the spring and early summer.
• Price Per Square Foot: Interestingly, while the overall median price dropped slightly, the price per square foot remained practically unchanged month-over-month. Nationally, the price per square foot decreased by 0.8%. This tells me that while the most expensive homes might be pulling the median price down, the core value of Albuquerque real estate is holding firm, showing more resilience than the national market.

My Takeaway: Buyers shouldn’t expect massive price drops, but they can expect more negotiating room. The days of automatic appreciation every month are likely over for a while.

The Inventory Puzzle: More Choices, Still Not Enough

Inventory—the supply of houses available for sale—is the number one driver of competition. When inventory is low, competition is high. When it climbs, buyers get more choices.

In September, there were 1,236 homes for sale in Albuquerque. Let’s break down that number, because it’s confusing:

• Compared to Last Year: We had 18.5% more homes for sale than we did in September 2024. This is a huge win for buyers! More inventory means less desperate bidding wars.
• Compared to Last Month: Here’s the wrinkle: The number of listings actually shrank by 2.1% compared to August 2025. This decrease is unusual for late summer and shows that while overall supply is up year-over-year, new homes aren't flooding the market fast enough to keep the trend smooth.

To put this in perspective, here’s how ABQ stacks up against the rest of the country regarding supply movement:

Metric	Albuquerque (September 2025)	National Market (September 2025)
Active Inventory Change (Month-over-Month)	-2.1% Decrease	+0.2% Increase
Total Inventory Level	1,236 Homes	1,100,407 Homes
Price per Sq. Ft. Change (MoM)	Unchanged	-0.8% Decrease

While our inventory is up significantly compared to last year, the recent dip suggests we still have a supply problem relative to demand.

Speed Check: How Long Do Homes Sit?

When the market is hot, homes sell in a heartbeat. When it cools, they take a deep breath.

The time a property spends on the market (DOM, or Days on Market) is a crucial measure of market heat.

• In September 2025, homes in Albuquerque took an average of 60 days to sell.
• This is the same as the previous month, but it is eight days longer than the time homes took to sell in September 2024.

For context, the national average was 62 days on the market in September. We are selling slightly faster than the rest of the U.S., but the fact that sales are slowing down year-over-year by over a week is a definitive trend change.

Why This Matters: Sixty days is a long time in real estate. It means the seller, not the buyer, is feeling the pressure to make a deal. This shift is turning the market, slowly but surely, away from a Seller's Housing Market toward a more level playing field.

Albuquerque Housing Market Forecast 2025 to 2026

Predicting the future is tricky, especially in New Mexico, where economic factors like job growth, military base expansion, and the tech sector play a huge role. However, based on the current cooling trends and key economic indicators, here is my forecast for the Albuquerque housing market as we move deeper into 2026.

The Elephant in the Room: Mortgage Rates

Let’s be honest: Mortgage rates are the biggest variable controlling affordability and demand. When rates went sky-high, it instantly sidelined thousands of buyers, causing the slow-down we are currently observing.

• If Rates Stay High (6.5% – 7.5%): We will continue to see stabilization and slow price growth (maybe 1% to 2% annually). High rates lock out many potential first-time buyers and keep existing homeowners from moving, meaning housing supply stays tight, but demand is suppressed. This scenario favors cash buyers and people relocating with high incomes.
• If Rates Drop (5.0% – 6.0%): If the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates significantly, the market will heat back up quickly. Affordability suddenly improves, and all the sidelined buyers will rush back in. We would see increased competition, higher home sales volume, and potentially 4% to 5% annual price appreciation again, especially in desirable areas like Nob Hill and the Northeast Heights.

My Prediction: I don't see rates dropping dramatically in the near term. Therefore, the Albuquerque housing market forecast leans toward a more steady, controlled growth pattern through 2026.

Will Albuquerque Become a Buyer's Market?

A true Buyer's Housing Market is defined by having six or more months of housing inventory available. We are nowhere near that. With only 1,236 active listings, we still measure inventory in weeks, not months.

However, the trend is clear: we are heading in the right direction for buyers.

• Late 2025: I expect us to operate in a Balanced Market territory for homes priced below the median ($386k). These homes will sell, but the seller will likely cover closing costs or make repair concessions.
• 2026: If housing inventory or supply continues its year-over-year increase (the 18.5% growth we saw), by the end of 2026, we could truly see a balanced market overall. This means buyers can take their time, contingencies (like inspections) will return as the norm, and bidding wars will become rare exceptions, not the rule.

Focus Areas: Entry-Level and Luxury

Not all parts of Albuquerque will follow the same trend:

1. Entry-Level Homes (Under $300k): These are the most price-sensitive segments. Any drop in mortgage rates will instantly supercharge demand here. Because ABQ is still relatively affordable compared to Phoenix or Denver, population inflow will continue to put pressure on this sector. Expect minimal price drops and continued competition for good starter homes.
2. Luxury Homes (Over $750k): This market segment is often driven by cash purchases and is less sensitive to mortgage rates. However, with higher inventory and slower sales (remember the 60 days on market), sellers here must be very flexible and focus heavily on presentation and realistic pricing to attract the right buyer.

Table of Key Forecast Indicators

Indicator	Current Trend (Sept 2025)	Forecast for 2026	Impact on Buyers/Sellers
Home Prices	Stabilizing/Slight Drop	Modest Appreciation (1%–3%)	Buyers gain negotiating power; Sellers must price carefully.
Housing Inventory	Up 18.5% YoY	Continued Slow Increase	More options for buyers; Less pressure on prices.
Time on Market	60 Days (Slowing)	60–75 Days	Favors the Buyer: Contingencies return, less urgency.
Market Type	Transitioning Seller's	Balanced (Approaching Neutral)	Fairness returns to the transaction process.

Final Thoughts on the Duke City Market

The current Albuquerque housing market trends and forecast point toward maturity and stability. The days of chaos and irrational bidding seem to be behind us.

If you are a potential home buyer in the Duke City, patience is your best friend. With 60 days on the market becoming the norm, you have the time to find the right place without panicking. Focus on securing a good rate and making reasonable, non-emotional offers.

If you are a seller, you must shed the expectations set in 2021. You will likely still make a profit, but you must work with a knowledgeable agent to ensure your listing is priced exactly right. Overpriced homes will sit, driving that 60-day average even higher.

Ultimately, Albuquerque remains a fantastic place to live. The underlying demand is strong, driven by people looking for a great quality of life at a cost lower than many other Western metros. This inherent demand ensures our home prices remain stable, even as the market takes a necessary breather.