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Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year FRM Drops to 6.73%, 15-Year FRM Dips to 5.71%

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If you're looking for the mortgage rates today, July 1, 2025, the news is cautiously optimistic. While national average rates show a slight downward trend, it's important to understand what's driving these changes and what the experts predict for the near future. According to Zillow, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is around 6.74%. Let's dive into the details and see what's happening.

Mortgage Rates Today: 30-Year FRM Drops to 6.73%, 15-Year FRM Dips to 5.71%

Key Takeaways:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates: Averaging around 6.74%, a slight decrease from the prior week. This is the most common type of mortgage, so its movement is particularly significant.
  • Refinance Rates: Also seeing a minor dip, offering potential opportunities for homeowners. If you've been waiting for a chance to lower your monthly payments, now might be the time to investigate.
  • Expert Predictions: Most experts are forecasting relatively stable rates in the mid-6% range for the coming months. While there's no guarantee, this suggests a period of relative predictability.
  • Federal Reserve (The Fed): Their actions on July 30th could influence rates, but significant cuts are unlikely due to inflation. All eyes are on this upcoming meeting.
  • Inflation: Rising inflation is a wild card that could prevent large rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Keeping an eye on inflation data is essential for understanding the bigger picture.

Current Mortgage Rates on July 1, 2025: A Closer Look at Loan Types

Let's break down exactly where mortgage rates stand as of today, July 1, 2025. According to Zillow data, we're seeing some movement across different loan types. Understanding these nuances can help you choose the right mortgage for your specific needs.

Here's a table summarizing the current rates for conforming loans:

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.74% down 0.05% 7.18% down 0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.01% down 0.25% 6.36% down 0.27%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.71% down 0.10% 5.99% down 0.12%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.62% down 0.07% 5.77% down 0.23%
7-year ARM 7.00% down 0.14% 7.91% up 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.59% up 0.13% 7.98% up 0.05%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%
  • 30-Year Fixed Rate: This is the most popular option because it offers a predictable monthly payment over a long period.
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate: While the monthly payments are higher, you'll pay off your mortgage much faster and save a significant amount on interest over the life of the loan.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): These loans have interest rates that can change over time, based on market conditions. They can be attractive if you expect rates to fall, but they also carry more risk.

And here's a look at government-backed loans:

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.75% down 0.50% 7.78% down 0.50%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.19% down 0.08% 6.35% down 0.13%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.50% down 0.77% 6.46% down 0.78%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.68% down 0.09% 5.95% down 0.17%
  • FHA Loans: These loans are insured by the Federal Housing Administration and are often a good choice for first-time homebuyers or those with lower credit scores.
  • VA Loans: These loans are guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and are available to eligible veterans, active-duty military personnel, and surviving spouses.
  • Comparing Conforming and Government Loans: When deciding between conforming and government loans, make sure the loan requirements fit your financial situation!

You'll notice that government loans, especially FHA and VA options, often offer attractive rates. This makes them a great choice for first-time homebuyers or those who qualify for these programs. Understanding the differences between these loan types is essential for making an informed decision.

Refinance Rates Today: July 1, 2025 – Is It Time to Refinance Your Mortgage?

For homeowners looking to refinance, there's some good news. Refinance rates are also showing a slight downward trend. This could be an opportunity to lower your monthly payments or shorten your loan term. Let's explore the potential benefits of refinancing.

Here's a snapshot of current refinance rates for conforming loans:

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 7.03% down 0.03% 7.18% down 0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.02% down 0.25% 6.37% down 0.27%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.71% down 0.10% 6.00% down 0.12%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.63% down 0.07% 5.78% down 0.23%
7-year ARM 7.01% down 0.14% 7.90% up 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.59% up 0.13% 7.97% up 0.05%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%
  • Lower Monthly Payments: Refinancing to a lower interest rate can significantly reduce your monthly mortgage payments, freeing up cash for other expenses.
  • Shorten Your Loan Term: Refinancing to a shorter loan term, such as from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage, can help you pay off your mortgage faster and save on interest over the long run. This is a tough decision as monthly commitments drastically change.
  • Switching Loan Types: You can also refinance to switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) to a fixed-rate mortgage, providing more stability and predictability in your monthly payments.
  • Cash-Out Refinance: If you have equity in your home, you can refinance for more than you currently owe and use the extra cash for home improvements, debt consolidation, or other needs. This can be useful in times of need.

So, Will Mortgage Rates Drop Further in July 2025?

The big question everyone is asking is: Will mortgage rates drop in July 2025? Well, according to top financial experts it is unlikely to see any major rate drops in coming weeks. Most forecasts show mortgage rates staying in approximately the same place. But it's also important to consider other factors that may indirectly affect mortgage rates, such as The Federal Reserve.

Here's a look at predictions from different sources:

  • Long Forecast: Expects an average rate of around 6.71% in July 2025, potentially dipping to 6.68% by the end of the month.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Anticipates rates hovering around 6.7% for the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, September).
  • Other Experts: Major players like Fannie Mae are suggesting rates could fall to around 6.1% by the end of 2025. Wells Fargo anticipates rate dropping to 6.5% by the end of 2025.
Source Mortgage Rate Prediction for July 2025 (30-year fixed)
Long Forecast 6.71% average, closing at 6.68%
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 6.7% average in Q3 2025
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Mid-6% range by end of 2025
Fannie Mae 6.1% by end of 2025
Wells Fargo ~6.5% by end of 2025

It's important to remember that these are just predictions, and actual mortgage rates can be influenced by a variety of factors.

The Federal Reserve's Impact on Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) plays a huge part in how mortgage rates move. They manage the federal funds rate, which influences all sorts of interest rates. Understanding the Fed's actions and policies is crucial for predicting future mortgage rate trends.

The Fed's most recent meeting in June 2025 concluded with no changes to the federal funds rate, remaining between 4.25% and 4.50%. But they might make two rate decreases to bring down rates by the end of 2025. Others think rates might stay unchanged. These differing perspectives highlight the uncertainty surrounding future rate movements.

Pay attention to the next meeting (July 30, 2025). If the Fed cuts rates, that might lower mortgage rates a bit in late July or early August. If the Fed is still worried about inflation, any rate cuts might not be that big. The Fed's decisions are driven by a complex interplay of economic factors, including inflation, employment, and economic growth.

Inflation: A Key Driver of Mortgage Rates

Inflation can really influence mortgage rates. Usually, higher inflation means higher interest rates. In May 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% over the past year. This might make it less likely that the Fed will give us big rate cuts. Keeping an eye on inflation data is critical.

The Fed expects PCE inflation to be around 3.0% for 2025, and core PCE inflation at 3.1%. Both are still higher than the Fed's 2% goal. This inflationary pressure could limit the Fed's ability to lower rates significantly.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

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Will Mortgage Rates Drop or Increase in July 2025: Key Predictions

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Will mortgage rates drop in July 2025? The short answer is probably not by much. Based on what experts are saying right now, it looks like we can expect rates to stay pretty close to where they are currently, hovering in the mid-6% range. So, lower than what we have seen. But, let's dig deeper into what's driving these predictions and what it all means for you if you're thinking of buying a home.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop or Increase in July 2025: Key Predictions

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now

As we roll towards July 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting around 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. We've seen a tiny dip in the past few weeks, which is good news. For the four weeks leading up to that date. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that will continue.

What the Experts Think: July 2025 Mortgage Rate Forecasts

I have been checking out a few different sources to get a better sense of where things might be heading. Here's a quick rundown:

  • Long Forecast: These guys are thinking the average rate in July 2025 will be around 6.71%, bouncing between 6.48% and 6.88%. They predict we'll end the month at 6.68%. The general outlook is a mild decline from where we are right now.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): The MBA chimes in which similar predications, expecting rates to hover around 6.7% for the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, September). So roughly the same as what Long term forecast is.
  • Other Experts: Some major players like Fannie Mae, Wells Fargo, and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) are all saying the same thing: rates are likely to stay in the mid-6% range throughout 2025. Fannie Mae thinks we might see 6.1% by the end of 2025, while Wells Fargo predicts that rates will fall to approximately 6.5%.

What do I take away from all of this? Don't expect any huge changes. Most experts think mortgage rates will stay pretty steady, maybe dipping a little bit, but we're not talking about a dramatic drop.

The Federal Reserve's Playbook

The Federal Reserve (often called the Fed) has a massive impact on mortgage rates. The policies the Fed puts in place can have lasting effects on not just mortgage rates, but all interest rates. Their decisions about the federal funds rate (the rate banks charge each other for overnight lending) influence the whole interest rate environment.

In their June 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. According to their “dot plot” (which is basically a chart showing what each Fed member thinks will happen with interest rates), most members expect two rate decreases at some point in 2025. But, some think there will be no rate cut, while others imagine three rate cuts. As you can see, there's a lot of disagreement on the board.

Keep an eye on the next FOMC meeting (July 30, 2025). If the Federal Reserve decides to lower rates then, we could see a slight drop in mortgage rates by late July or early August. Since they are concerned about inflation, they are probably going to tread cautiously, which means any rate cuts may not be that big!

Inflation: The Wild Card

Inflation is one of the biggest factors that determine where mortgage rates are headed. High inflation generally leads to higher interest rates. Here's what the data is showing:

  • May 2025 CPI Data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how much prices have changed, rose 2.4% over the past year in May 2025. This is up from 2.3% in April. This is not good news because President Trump's tariff policies could push inflation even higher.
  • Federal Reserve Expectations: The Fed think PCE inflation is looking at 3.0% for 2025, with core PCE inflation at 3.1%. Both are higher than the Fed's 2% inflationary target.

What does this all mean? It tells me that rising tariffs and inflation may prevent the Fed from making large rate cuts. Also, inflation could potentially leave rates stagnant or even increased. On the other hand, if inflation gets under control, we could see rate cuts that could help people buying homes.

Market Uncertainty: What it Means for You

Based on what I have been reading, it's clear not everyone agrees on when and how much the Fed will cut rates. The Fed's “dot plot” proves this, as it indicates that views range from no cuts to potentially three cuts. I am also monitoring slower GDP growth and rising unemployment because they could influence the Fed's decision making as well.

What This Means if You're Thinking of Buying a Home

For people who want to buy a home, these facts suggest the following: rates are probably not going to change much anytime soon.

  • Timing: Waiting until after the July 30 Fed meeting could give you a clearer idea of where rates are headed. If there's a rate cut, you might see lower mortgage rates in early August.
  • Shop Around Extensively: Shopping around is always a good idea, but as Forbes Advisor reports, rates can vary from lender to lender.
  • Keep an Eye on the Economic Indicators: Be sure to keep an eye on important indicators like the June 2025 CPI data, due in July, because this will influence Fed decisions.

Mortgage Rate Predictions Table

This following is a summary of predictions for 30-year fixed mortgages during the month of July this year.

Source Mortgage Rate Prediction for July 2025 (30-year fixed)
Long Forecast 6.71% average, closing at 6.68%
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 6.7% average in Q3 2025
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Mid-6% range by end of 2025
Fannie Mae 6.1% by end of 2025
Wells Fargo ~6.5% by end of 2025
J.P. Morgan Above 6.5% in 2025, eases to 6.7% by year-end

Final Thoughts

So, will mortgage rates drop in July 2025? It is not expected for rates to increase, but there's likely going to be only a slight lowering of rates. This is contingent on what the Federal Reserve does on July 30th. Rising tariffs and inflation concerns make it seem less likely that any rate cuts will be substantial. So keep your eye on both Fed announcements and economic changes: This will help ensure that you get the best possible interest rate on a house. Be sure to talk to different lenders about their mortgage options!

Plan Ahead with These Mortgage Projections

Mortgage rate predictions suggest continued fluctuations—now is the time to lock in smart investment moves.

Norada helps you secure turnkey, cash-flowing properties today to ride the wave of tomorrow’s rate cycles.

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2 Florida Housing Markets Flagged for a Major Price Decline Risk

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Thinking of buying a slice of paradise in Florida? While the Sunshine State has been a magnet for new residents and investors, pushing home prices to dizzying heights, the music might be slowing down in some popular spots. If you've been watching the Florida property scene, you might be wondering if the party's over for some areas.

Well, May 2025 insights by Cotality suggest that at least 2 Florida Housing markets are bracing for a high risk of a price crash: Winter Haven and Tampa. These aren't just minor dips we're talking about, but significant warning signs that potential buyers and current homeowners need to understand.

Now, when I say “price crash,” I know it sounds dramatic. But the information we're looking at, including a report from Cotality with data insights looking at trends through March 2025, points to some serious vulnerabilities. So, let's dive into what's going on.

2 Florida Housing Markets Flagged for a Major Price Decline Risk

The Bigger Picture: What's Happening with US Home Prices?

Before we zoom into Florida, it's helpful to get a feel for the national housing scene. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, right? We saw a brief spark of hope in spring (around March of the previous year from the report's perspective, so March 2024) when lower mortgage rates led to a jump in pending sales – about 12% more than the year before. But that burst of energy didn't last long.

According to the figures (up to March 2025), year-over-year national home price growth has cooled a bit, down to 2.5%. That's a slowdown from 2.9% the month before. The national median home price is still a hefty $389,000, and you'd need an income of around $86,500 to comfortably afford it. So, affordability is still a big hurdle for many folks across the country.

Interestingly, while some areas are cooling, others are still hot. The Northeast, for example, is seeing strong price growth in places like Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey (all up 7% or more year-over-year). This, as Cotality's Chief Economist Selma Hepp points out, is partly due to a severe lack of homes for sale in those regions, which helps keep prices up, especially since homes there are often more affordable to begin with, around $230,000.

However, the national forecast does predict a 4.9% increase in home prices from March 2025 to March 2026. This tells me that while the overall market might still grow, some specific areas, particularly those that saw massive run-ups, could be in for a rude awakening. And Florida seems to be one of those places.

Why Florida? The Sunshine State's Shaky Ground

Florida has been the golden child of the housing market for a few years. People flocked there for the sun, the lifestyle, and, during the pandemic, for more space and fewer restrictions. This demand sent prices soaring. The Cotality report highlights that cumulative price increases in Florida (and Texas) since the pandemic have averaged a staggering 70% to 90%!

Think about that for a second. If a house was $300,000 before the pandemic, it could have shot up to $510,000 or even $570,000. That kind of rapid growth is often unsustainable. And now, we're seeing the consequences:

  • Affordability Crisis: With the median home price in Florida at $395,000 (making it the 12th most expensive state), many everyday Floridians and potential newcomers are simply priced out.
  • Rising Inventory: The report mentions “rapidly rising inventories” in Florida. When there are more homes for sale than buyers, prices tend to drop. This is a classic supply and demand situation.
  • Negative Price Changes: Florida as a whole actually saw a slight price decrease of -0.3% in March 2025. Even more telling, eight out of eleven major markets in Florida recorded negative annual price changes. This isn't just a blip; it's a trend.
  • Insurance Woes: While not detailed in this specific dataset, as someone who follows the Florida market closely, I can tell you that the escalating cost of homeowners insurance (and in some cases, the inability to get it at all) is a massive factor. This adds a huge, unpredictable cost to owning a home, making Florida less attractive for some.

It seems the very things that made Florida hot – its popularity and rapid growth – might be the seeds of its current correction.

Zooming In: Winter Haven, FL – A Closer Look at the Risk

The Cotality report specifically flags Winter Haven, FL as one of the top five most at-risk markets in the country for price declines. Located in Central Florida between Tampa and Orlando, Winter Haven was attractive for its relative affordability compared to the bigger cities. But it seems prices there got ahead of themselves.

Looking at the “High-risk market home price trends” graph provided in the report (which tracks prices up to March 2025), Winter Haven's price journey has been bumpy:

  • It saw a peak around $330,000 in mid-2022.
  • Then, prices fell back to around $300,000.
  • There was another, smaller peak near $320,000 in mid-2023.
  • Since then, the trend has been mostly downwards, with prices hovering around $310,000 by March 2025.

What this tells me is that after the initial boom, Winter Haven's market has struggled to maintain those peak prices and is showing signs of weakening. While a $310,000 median price might still seem reasonable to some, if it represents a significant overvaluation based on local incomes and fundamentals, further drops are likely. The risk here is that those who bought at the peak could find themselves owing more than their home is worth if prices continue to fall sharply.

Zooming In: Tampa, FL – Big City, Big Concerns?

Next up on the high-risk list is Tampa, FL. This one might surprise some folks, as Tampa has been a very popular destination, known for its job growth, vibrant culture, and beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. It's currently ranked as the #4 most at-risk market by Cotality.

Let's look at Tampa's price trend from the same graph:

  • Tampa's prices peaked higher than Winter Haven, hitting around $385,000 in mid-2022.
  • It then saw a noticeable dip to about $345,000 in early 2023.
  • Prices did recover, climbing back up to $380,000 by mid-2023.
  • After that, there was a general softening, with prices around $360,000 in early 2024.
  • The data leading up to March 2025 shows a slight uptick, with Tampa's median price around $371,000.

Now, that slight uptick at the very end of the graph for Tampa might make you wonder why it's on the “high-risk” list. This is where I believe we need to look beyond just the line on the graph. The Cotality report's risk assessment likely includes other critical factors like:

  • Pace of inventory increase: Is supply rapidly outpacing demand in Tampa?
  • Valuation metrics: How do current prices compare to historical norms or local incomes? It could be severely overvalued despite the recent small bump.
  • Affordability stress: Even at $371,000, if wages haven't kept pace, the market is on thin ice.

Tampa's story is a reminder that even a slight price increase in one month doesn't negate underlying risks, especially after such a massive run-up (remember that 70-90% statewide figure!). The concern is that the foundations supporting these prices might be weaker than they appear.

What's Driving the Risk in These Florida Markets?

So, we have Winter Haven and Tampa in the spotlight, but other Florida markets are also cooling. The “Top 10 Coolest Markets” list from the report includes:

  • Fort Myers, FL: Down -5.3%
  • Punta Gorda, FL: Down -4.1%
  • Sarasota, FL: Down -3.6%

These are not insignificant drops. It shows a broader trend of softening in parts of Florida. The key drivers, in my opinion, boil down to a few things:

  1. The Affordability Squeeze: This is the big one. When home prices rise much faster than wages, something has to give. Florida’s median home price of $395,000 is a tough pill to swallow for many.
  2. Mortgage Rates: While rates dipped briefly, they've remained relatively high. This directly impacts how much house someone can afford. The report notes that consumer concerns about finances are putting a damper on things.
  3. Skyrocketing Ownership Costs: It's not just the mortgage. As I mentioned, insurance costs in Florida have become a huge burden. Add property taxes and HOA fees, and the total cost of owning a home can be eye-watering.
  4. Inventory Rebound: For a long time, there just weren't enough homes for sale. That's changing. “Rapidly rising inventories,” as the report states, mean buyers have more choices and less pressure to bid prices up. Sellers might have to compete more on price.
  5. The “Good Times” Rolled Back: The unique conditions of the pandemic (remote work, stimulus money, a desire for more space) fueled a buying frenzy. As life returns to a new normal, that artificial boost is fading. The 70-90% price gains were an anomaly, not a new standard.

My Take: Is It a Crash or a Correction? And What Does It Mean?

As someone who's been watching housing markets for years, I tend to be cautious with the word “crash.” It implies a sudden, catastrophic drop like we saw in 2008. What I believe is more likely for markets like Winter Haven and Tampa is a significant price correction. This means prices could fall noticeably, perhaps by 10%, 15%, or even more in some localized pockets, to better align with local incomes and historical trends.

Here’s what I think this means:

  • For Buyers: If you're looking to buy in these areas, this could be good news in the medium term. Lower prices and more inventory could bring opportunities. However, don't try to catch a falling knife. Be patient, do your homework, and make sure the numbers truly work for your budget, factoring in all costs. A pre-approval for a mortgage is a must.
  • For Sellers: If you're thinking of selling in Winter Haven or Tampa, you need to be realistic. The days of naming your price and getting multiple offers in a weekend are likely over. Price your home competitively from the start, make sure it’s in top condition, and be prepared for it to sit on the market longer.
  • For Homeowners: If you bought recently at a peak price and don't plan to move, the best advice is usually to ride it out. Markets are cyclical. As long as you can afford your payments, a drop in paper value isn't ideal, but it's not a realized loss unless you sell.
  • For Investors: Speculators who bought hoping for quick appreciation might get burned. Long-term investors who focus on cash flow might still find opportunities, but due diligence is more critical than ever.

It's crucial to remember that real estate is hyper-local. Even within Tampa or Winter Haven, some neighborhoods might hold up better than others. That's why getting advice from a trusted, local real estate professional who understands the specific dynamics of your target area is invaluable.

Navigating a High-Risk Market: What Can You Do?

If you're in one of these potentially risky Florida markets, or considering entering one, here's my straightforward advice:

  • Buyers, Be Cautious:
    • Don't rush: The fear of missing out (FOMO) is a dangerous motivator. Take your time.
    • Research, research, research: Understand local price trends, inventory levels, and average days on market.
    • Get pre-approved: Know exactly what you can afford before you start looking.
    • Negotiate: With more inventory, sellers might be more willing to negotiate on price or offer concessions.
    • Think long-term: If you're not planning to stay in the home for at least 5-7 years, buying in a correcting market could be risky.
  • Sellers, Be Realistic:
    • Price it right: Overpricing your home in a cooling market is a recipe for frustration. Look at recent comparable sales (comps).
    • Presentation matters: Make your home shine. First impressions are critical when buyers have more choices.
    • Be patient and flexible: Sales might take longer, and you might not get your dream price.

The Sun May Still Shine, But with a Few More Clouds

Florida's allure isn't going away. People will still want to live and retire there. However, the housing market, particularly in places like Winter Haven and Tampa, appears to be entering a necessary correction phase after years of unsustainable growth. The risk of a significant price decline in these 2 Florida Housing markets is real, according to the latest analyses.

This isn't a reason to panic, but it is a reason to be informed, cautious, and strategic. Whether you're buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines, understanding these dynamics is key to making smart decisions in a changing market.

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Mortgage Rates Today June 30, 2025: 30-Year Fixed Rate Rises on Monday

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Are you looking to buy a home or refinance your existing mortgage? Knowing today's mortgage rates is the first step. As of June 30, 2025, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.79%. Let's dive into a more detailed look at current mortgage rates, how they've changed, and what options are available.

Mortgage Rates Today June 30, 2025: 30-Year Fixed Rate Rises on Monday

Key Takeaways

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.79%.
  • Refinance Rates Increased: The national average for a 30-year fixed refinance rate is 7.04%.
  • Government Loans Mixed: FHA rates increased, while VA rates showed slight increases.
  • Jumbo Loans Varied: Jumbo loan rates experienced a mix of increases and decreases across different terms.

Breaking Down Today's Mortgage Rates

Understanding mortgage rates can feel like trying to decipher a secret code. But don't worry, it's not as complicated as it seems. Mortgage rates represent the cost you pay to borrow money to buy a home, and they're influenced by many factors, including the economy, inflation, and even global events. Let's explore the mortgage rates today and how they compare to last week;

According to Zillow, as of June 30, 2025, here's a snapshot of the current mortgage rates for various loan types:

Conforming Loans

Conforming loans meet specific standards set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, making them more accessible for many borrowers.

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.79% 0.00% 7.20% down 0.04%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.05% down 0.21% 6.31% down 0.32%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.76% down 0.05% 6.03% down 0.08%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% up 0.09% 6.04% up 0.04%
7-year ARM 7.00% down 0.14% 7.91% up 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.59% up 0.13% 7.92% 0.00%
3-year ARM – 0.00% – 0.00%

As you can see, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains unchanged at 6.79%. But other conforming loans saw both increases and decreases. For instance, the 20-year fixed rate dropped by 0.21%, while the 10-year fixed rate rose by 0.09%. This demonstrates that different loan terms can react uniquely to market conditions.

Government Loans

Government-backed loans, like FHA and VA loans, offer different terms and requirements, often making them appealing to first-time homebuyers or veterans.

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.75% up 0.51% 8.79% up 0.51%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.35% up 0.08% 6.57% up 0.09%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.56% down 0.71% 6.53% down 0.71%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.70% down 0.08% 6.06% down 0.06%

Looking at government loans, we see the 30-year fixed rate FHA increased. VA loans saw minor increases, while the 15-year fixed rate for FHA loans saw a significant decrease of 0.71%. These fluctuations highlight the specific dynamics within government-backed lending.

Jumbo Loans

Jumbo loans apply to mortgages that exceed the conforming loan limits set by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.03% down 0.12% 7.58% up 0.02%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.27% down 0.28% 6.64% down 0.17%
7-year ARM Jumbo 7.42% 0.00% 8.00% 0.00%
5-year ARM Jumbo 6.62% down 0.86% 7.56% down 0.38%
3-year ARM Jumbo – 0.00% – 0.00%

If you're in the market for a jumbo loan, the 30-year fixed rate is at 7.03%, which decreased by 0.12% compared to last week. The 5-year ARM Jumbo saw the most significant decrease, dropping by 0.86%. These changes provide insights for those seeking larger loan amounts.

Today's Refinance Rates: A Closer Look

Refinancing means replacing your current mortgage with a new one, ideally with better terms. Let's examine today's refinance rates to see if it's a viable option for you.

Here's the latest on refinance rates:

  • 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: 7.04% (up 0.01% from the previous day)
  • The 30-year fixed refinance rate on June 30, 2025, is down 2 basis points from the previous week’s average rate of 7.06%.
  • 15-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: 5.86% (up 0.04% from the previous day)
  • 5-Year ARM Refinance Rate: 7.85% (up 0.06% from the previous day)

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.79% 0.00% 7.20% down 0.04%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.05% down 0.21% 6.31% down 0.32%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.76% down 0.05% 6.03% down 0.08%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% up 0.09% 6.04% up 0.04%
7-year ARM 7.00% down 0.14% 7.91% up 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.59% up 0.13% 7.92% 0.00%
3-year ARM – 0.00% – 0.00%

As the rates show, refinancing can be a strategic move if you find a rate lower than your current one.

FRM (Fixed-Rate Mortgage) vs Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): Which to Choose?

When choosing a mortgage, one of the most important decisions is whether to opt for a fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) or an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). Each has its own set of advantages and disadvantages, depending on your financial situation and risk tolerance.

  • Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM): With a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rate remains the same throughout the life of the loan, typically 15, 20, or 30 years.
    • Pros: Predictable monthly payments, protection against rising interest rates, and easier budgeting.
    • Cons: Higher initial interest rates compared to ARMs, and you might miss out on potential savings if the interest rates go down.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): An adjustable-rate mortgage has an interest rate that can change periodically based on market conditions. Typically, ARMs have an initial fixed-rate period, after which the rate adjusts.
    • Pros: Lower initial interest rates, potential for lower payments if interest rates decrease, and can be beneficial for those planning to move or refinance in a few years.
    • Cons: Unpredictable monthly payments, risk of higher payments if interest rates increase, and can be complex to understand.

Let's illustrate with an example. Suppose you're considering a $300,000 mortgage. If you choose a 30-year FRM at 6.79%, your monthly payment for principal and interest would be around $1,954. But, if you opt for a 5-year ARM starting at 5.79%, your initial payment may be lower, but it could increase after the fixed-rate period ends.

Choosing between an FRM and an ARM is a personal decision. Before making the leap, make sure you understand the ins and outs of each; the risk involved and talk to a financial advisor.

Mortgage Rates in 2025: What to Expect

Predicting the future of mortgage rates is never a certainty, but here's the current outlook for 2025:

  • Goodbye Ultra-Low Rates: Don't anticipate a return to the historically low mortgage rates (2-3%) seen during the pandemic era.
  • “Higher-for-Longer” Scenario: Experts largely agree that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period.
  • Gradual Rate Adjustments: While the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts, these are projected to be gradual and measured.
  • Fed's Influence: Mortgage rates typically follow the Federal Reserve's lead. Therefore, any rate cuts by the Fed are likely to result in a subsequent decrease in mortgage rates.
  • Bond Market Impact: The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds significantly affects mortgage rates; the slight upward trend that these bonds currently show may impact said rates.

The Bottom Line: There is a possibility of slight mortgage rate decreases in 2025. However, this is contingent on economic conditions, Federal Reserve policy, and global economic factors. Vigilance and awareness of market dynamics are paramount.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What factors influence mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are influenced by economic indicators like inflation, employment rates, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Global events and investor confidence also play a role.

How do I get the best mortgage rate?

Improve your credit score, save for a larger down payment, compare offers from multiple lenders, and consider different loan types.

What is APR?

APR (Annual Percentage Rate) measures the total cost of your loan annually, including the interest rate, fees, and other charges. It gives a more complete picture of the loan's true cost.

Should I choose a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage?

It depends on your risk tolerance, financial situation, and how long you plan to stay in the home. Fixed-rate mortgages offer stability, while adjustable-rate mortgages may start lower but can fluctuate.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates: 5-Year ARM Surges by 2 Basis Points to 7.62%

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Are you keeping a close eye on mortgage rates? You should be, especially if you're planning to buy a home or refinance soon! As of June 30, 2025, today's mortgage rates show some interesting movement, particularly with the 5-year ARM (Adjustable-Rate Mortgage), which has seen an increase. According to the latest data from Zillow, the national average for a 5-year ARM has risen 2 basis points to 7.62%. Let's dive into what this means for you and the broader housing market.

Today's Mortgage Rates: 5-Year ARM Surges to 7.62% on June 30, 2025

Navigating the world of mortgage rates can feel like trying to solve a complex puzzle. There are so many numbers, terms, and factors that influence where rates are headed. What's a basis point and why should I care that it's “up” or “down”? Let's break it down. A basis point is just one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). So really it's not too complicated once you put it in perspective. Even small changes can add up when you're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.

Fixed vs. Adjustable: Understanding Your Options

The most common types of mortgages are fixed-rate and adjustable-rate.

  • Fixed-rate mortgages have an interest rate that stays the same for the entire loan term, which could be 15, 20, or 30 years. This provides stability and predictability in your monthly payments. If you like certainty, or you plan on staying in your new home for a long time, a fixed rate might be right for you.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), on the other hand, have an interest rate that is fixed for an initial period (e.g., 3, 5, 7, or 10 years), and then adjusts periodically based on a benchmark index, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus a margin (a fixed spread).

The 5-year ARM is just one of many options, and it's crucial to understand the nuances of each to make an informed decision.

The 5-Year ARM: Why the Jump?

Okay, so the 5-year ARM went up slightly. Why? There are a number of influencing factors that can cause mortgage rates to move.

  • Economic Data: Strong economic data, such as robust job growth or unexpectedly high inflation, can push rates higher. This is because a strong economy can signal higher demand for credit and potentially lead to the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy.
  • Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve plays a huge role in setting the overall tone for interest rates. Their decisions on the federal funds rate directly impact short-term borrowing costs, which can then influence mortgage rates.
  • Inflation Expectations: If investors expect inflation to rise, they typically demand higher yields on bonds to compensate for the eroding purchasing power of their investment. This, in turn, can lead to higher mortgage rates.
  • Global Events: Unforeseen events – wars, geopolitical issues, even natural disasters can affect global financial markets by raising uncertainty causing rates to fluctuate.

While I can't pinpoint the exact reason for the increase on June 30, 2025, it's likely a combination of these factors at play. Even small news items can move the market enough that you will see the change in mortgage rates.

Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot (June 30, 2025)

Let's take a look at a table summarizing the current mortgage rates from ZIllow as of June 30, 2025:

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.75% down 0.03% 7.21% down 0.02%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.05% down 0.21% 6.31% down 0.32%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.74% down 0.07% 6.05% down 0.06%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% up 0.09% 6.04% up 0.04%
7-year ARM 7.00% down 0.14% 7.91% up 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.62% up 0.16% 8.01% up 0.08%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Note: APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes other costs of the loan expressed as a yearly rate.

Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.25% up 0.01% 8.29% up 0.01%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.29% up 0.02% 6.50% up 0.02%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.72% down 0.55% 6.68% down 0.56%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.79% up 0.01% 6.13% up 0.02%

Jumbo Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.10% down 0.05% 7.58% up 0.02%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.45% down 0.09% 6.74% down 0.06%
7-year ARM Jumbo 7.42% 0.00% 8.00% 0.00%
5-year ARM Jumbo 7.22% down 0.25% 7.81% down 0.13%
3-year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

Key Takeaways from the Table

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates are slightly down at 6.75%, which is good news for those seeking stability.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rates are at 5.74%, making them an attractive option for those looking to pay off their mortgage faster.
  • The 5-year ARM is sitting at 7.62%, with an increase of 0.16% from the previous week.
  • Notice how Government loans such as FHA and VA loans still have a high demand – this is mostly due to their low down payment options making them accessible to many first-time home buyers giving a leg up to entering the housing market.

Is a 5-Year ARM Right for You?

With the 5-year ARM seeing an uptick, you might be wondering if it's still a viable option. Here are few things to consider. I think these are good pointers to keep in mind which I will share with you:

  • Lower Initial Interest Rate: ARMs often start with a lower interest rate than fixed-rate mortgages, making your initial monthly payments more affordable. The question I would ask myself is “Is this a true reflection of affordability?”
  • Short-Term Homeownership: If you plan to move or refinance before the adjustment period begins, you could benefit from the lower initial rate. This is especially true if you're only planning on living in the home for the next five or less years.
  • Risk Tolerance: Are you comfortable with the possibility of your interest rate increasing after the fixed period? If you can stomach the risk, an ARM might be worth considering.
  • Consider the “Worst Case” Scenario: This means evaluating the loan documents and seeing what the maximum interest rate is. Could you afford it?

Personally, I would suggest running different scenarios and talking to a financial advisor before committing to an ARM.

Fixed-Rate vs. ARM: A Detailed Comparison

To help you make a more informed decision, let's compare fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages:

Feature Fixed-Rate Mortgage Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
Interest Rate Remains constant throughout the loan term. Initial rate is fixed for a period, then adjusts based on a benchmark index.
Monthly Payments Predictable and consistent. Can fluctuate after the initial fixed period.
Risk Level Low; no surprises with interest rate changes. Higher; interest rate can increase or decrease.
Best Suited For Homeowners who value stability and plan to stay in their home for the long term. Homeowners who plan to move or refinance within the fixed period, or who are comfortable with interest rate risk.
Initial Interest Rate Higher compared to ARMs. Lower than fixed-rate mortgages.

Tips for Navigating the Mortgage Market

The mortgage market can be daunting, but with the right approach, you can find the best loan for your needs:

  • Shop Around: Don't settle for the first offer you receive. Get quotes from multiple lenders to compare rates and fees.
  • Check Your Credit Score: A good credit score can help you qualify for a lower interest rate. Check your credit report for errors and take steps to improve your score if necessary.
  • Get Pre-Approved: Pre-approval gives you a clear idea of how much you can borrow and makes you a more attractive buyer to sellers.
  • Understand the Fine Print: Read all loan documents carefully and ask questions about anything you don't understand.

The Bottom Line

While the rise in the 5-year ARM rate on June 30, 2025, might cause some pause, it's important to put it into perspective. Mortgage rates fluctuate constantly, and a slight increase in one type of loan shouldn't necessarily derail your plans of purchasing a home.

Focus on:

  • Your individual financial situation
  • Long-term goals
  • Working with trusted professionals
  • Staying informed

By taking a well-informed and pragmatic approach, you can navigate the mortgage market with confidence on your journey towards homeownership.

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5 Least Affordable Housing Markets for Buyers to Buy a House in 2025

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Finding an affordable place to live can feel like a Herculean task these days. With home prices stubbornly high, especially when viewed in comparison to incomes, the dream of homeownership is becoming increasingly elusive for many. Based on a recent report from Realtor.com, the 5 least affordable housing markets in 2025, where the typical home costs an overwhelming portion of the median household income, are Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, New York and Boston.

I felt compelled to dive deeper into this issue, providing you with more insights in a way that's easier to grasp. So, let’s explore why these markets are so expensive and what factors contribute to this growing affordability crisis.

5 Least Affordable Housing Markets for Buyers to Buy a House in 2025

Let's take a detailed look at the five markets where the squeeze is the most intense. The data is based on Realtor.com's May 2025 report, which considered median home prices, mortgage rates (6.82%), a 20% down payment, and estimated taxes and insurance.

1. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

  • Median List Price: $1,195,000
  • Annual Mortgage Payment + Tax & Ins.: $95,496
  • 2025 Median Household Income: $91,380
  • Share of Income Required: 104.5%

Los Angeles takes the top spot as the least affordable market, with a staggering 104.5% of the median household income needed to cover housing costs. That means the typical homeowner in LA is spending more than they make on their home and the expense is greater than the income! The housing crisis in LA is driven by a severe supply shortage, high demand, and a strong economy that attracts high-income earners.

In fact, owning versus renting is almost parity due to this high expense, with 51% of homes rented and 49% owned.

2. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

  • Median List Price: $995,000
  • Annual Mortgage Payment + Tax & Ins.: $79,513
  • 2025 Median Household Income: $103,066
  • Share of Income Required: 77.1%

San Diego's idyllic climate and strong job market make it a desirable place to live. As a result, housing costs are astronomical. Nearly 77.1% of the median household income is required to afford a median-priced home. The home prices are almost 10X of the median income.

3. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

  • Median List Price: $1,419,500
  • Annual Mortgage Payment + Tax & Ins.: $113,436
  • 2025 Median Household Income: $156,664
  • Share of Income Required: 72.4%

Despite having the highest median household income among the 50 largest U.S. metros, San Jose residents face immense housing affordability challenges. With world-class technology jobs, that drive up the cost of homes, the median list price is nearly $1.5M! Approximately $113k would be the yearly expense to afford the typical home that consumes 72.4% of the median income.

4. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

  • Median List Price: $795,000
  • Annual Mortgage Payment + Tax & Ins.: $63,531
  • 2025 Median Household Income: $94,960
  • Share of Income Required: 66.9%

New York City remains a global hub, but its high cost of living (particularly housing) is a major burden for many residents. The market is very competitive! Nearly $64k would be the yearly expense to afford the typical home that consumes 66.9% of the median income. That's almost 4/5 of their income!

5. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

  • Median List Price: $879,000
  • Annual Mortgage Payment + Tax & Ins.: $70,243
  • 2025 Median Household Income: $109,295
  • Share of Income Required: 64.3%

Boston is another expensive market due to having robust industry for healthcare and for education. These industries drive high earnings and demand. Nearly $70k would be the yearly expense to afford the typical home that consumes 64.3% of the median income.

Understanding the 30% Affordability Rule (And Why It's Often a Myth)

The traditional benchmark for housing affordability is the 30% rule: the idea that you shouldn't spend more than 30% of your pre-tax income on housing costs (including mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance). This rule is based on the premise that it leaves enough money for other essential expenses like food, transportation, and healthcare, as well as saving for the future.

However, in many major U.S. cities, sticking to the 30% rule has become virtually impossible for the average household. This affordability crunch doesn't just affect lower-income families; it increasingly squeezes the middle class, delaying homeownership and making it harder to build wealth.

The Dire State of Home Affordability in 2025

As of May 2025, a shocking 47 out of the 50 largest U.S. metros require households to spend more than 30% of their income on housing to afford the median-priced home. This underscores a systemic problem: home prices have risen far faster than wages, creating a significant affordability gap.

Nationally, the typical home priced at $440,000 would require 44.6% of the median household income to afford. This paints a grim picture for prospective homebuyers across the nation.

Why Are These Markets So Expensive?

Several factors contribute to the extreme unaffordability of these markets:

  • Limited Housing Supply: Restrictive zoning regulations, geographical constraints (e.g., being surrounded by water or mountains), and lengthy permitting processes can limit the construction of new homes, exacerbating supply shortages.
  • High Demand: Strong local economies, desirable lifestyles, and proximity to job centers attract large numbers of people, driving up demand for housing.
  • High Land Costs: The scarcity of land in desirable locations pushes up property values, making it more expensive to build and buy homes.
  • Rising Construction Costs: The cost of labor, materials, and regulatory compliance can make new construction more expensive, further limiting the supply of affordable options.
  • Mortgage Rates: When mortgages are cheaper, homes get more expensive because they can be afforded by the masses, and vice-versa.

The Ripple Effect of Unaffordable Housing

The unaffordability crisis has far-reaching consequences:

  • Delayed Homeownership: Young adults and families are forced to delay buying homes, putting off important life milestones like starting families.
  • Increased Renting: More people are stuck renting for longer periods, which can make it harder to save for a down payment on a home.
  • Longer Commutes: People may be forced to move further away from job centers to find affordable housing, resulting in longer and more expensive commutes.
  • Economic Inequality: The growing gap between home prices and wages exacerbates income inequality, making it harder for lower- and middle-income families to build wealth.
  • Brain Drain: Some talented individuals and businesses may choose to relocate to more affordable regions, potentially stifling economic growth in the expensive markets.

What Can Be Done? Potential Solutions

Addressing the housing affordability crisis requires a multi-faceted approach:

  • Increase Housing Supply: Streamlining zoning regulations, incentivizing the construction of affordable housing, and encouraging density can help increase the supply of homes.
  • Reduce Construction Costs: Streamlining permitting processes, cutting red tape, and exploring innovative building technologies can help lower construction costs.
  • Promote Mixed-Income Housing: Encouraging the development of mixed-income communities can help prevent the concentration of poverty and promote economic diversity.
  • Increase Wages: Policies that support wage growth, such as raising the minimum wage and strengthening unions, can help make housing more affordable relative to income.
  • Offer Financial Assistance: Providing down payment assistance, tax credits, and other forms of financial support can help first-time homebuyers overcome the affordability barrier.

Potential Positive Impact

Fortunately, there are a couple of levers that authorities could move to make home ownership more feasible. This includes rapid wage growth, lowering mortgage rates, increasing supply and new construction. Each of these levers, including increased supply, will make housing prices more reasonable.

Concluding Thoughts

The reality is harsh: housing affordability is a growing crisis in many major U.S. metros. Although home prices stay high and incomes do not rise congruently, the dream of owning a home will sadly become an unachievable aspiration for many families. By understanding the underlying causes and implementing effective solutions, we can work towards a future where housing is more accessible and affordable for everyone.

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Housing Market Boom Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by NAR

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Are you keeping a close eye on the housing market? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently shared their forecast, and it looks like they're predicting a 3% growth in national median home prices in 2025. In short, while the market has seen some ups and downs lately, experts at NAR believe home prices will see a modest increase next year.

Housing Market Boom Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by NAR

Now, I know what you might be thinking. We've seen some pretty wild swings in the housing market over the past few years. Interest rates have gone up, and for a bit, it felt like things might really cool down. But according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, a “nuclear crash” in home prices isn't on the horizon. Speaking at a recent Realtors Legislative Meetings event, Yun pointed to a few key reasons why he expects this moderate growth.

Why the Optimism? Digging Deeper into the NAR Forecast

It's never enough to just hear a number, right? We want to know the “why” behind it. Yun's forecast for this 3% median home price increase in 2025 isn't pulled out of thin air. It's based on a combination of factors that he anticipates will shape the market in the coming year. Let's break down some of the key elements of his prediction:

  • Anticipated Rebound in Home Sales: Despite a slower start to 2025 than initially expected, Yun believes that both existing-home sales and new-home sales will pick up steam. His forecast suggests a 6% increase in existing-home sales and a significant 10% jump in new-home sales compared to 2024. This increase in activity can naturally put some upward pressure on prices.
  • Easing Mortgage Rates: This is a big one. For many potential homebuyers, mortgage rates are the make-or-break factor. Yun is predicting that mortgage rates will ease to around 6.4% by the end of 2025. This slight decrease from the higher rates we've seen could make buying a home more affordable for some, drawing more buyers into the market. As someone who remembers the impact of fluctuating interest rates firsthand, even a small dip can make a real difference in monthly payments.
  • Continued Job Growth: A healthy economy often translates to a healthy housing market. NAR's forecast also includes an expectation of 1.6 million new jobs being added to the economy in 2025. More people with jobs generally means more people with the financial stability to consider buying a home.
  • Low Levels of Distressed Sales: One of the biggest fears after a housing downturn is a flood of foreclosures driving down prices. However, Yun highlights that serious mortgage delinquencies remain low. This suggests that most homeowners are in a good position to continue paying their mortgages, reducing the likelihood of a large number of distressed properties hitting the market and significantly impacting prices negatively.

The Missing Piece: The Mortgage Rate Puzzle

As Yun himself pointed out, “The mortgage rate is the magic bullet, and we are just waiting and waiting as to when that could come down.” This really resonates with me. We've seen that even though other economic factors might be in place, higher mortgage rates can act as a significant barrier for potential buyers. The pace and extent to which these rates actually decrease will be crucial in determining if NAR's sales forecast, and consequently the price growth, materializes.

Inventory Still a Key Factor

While the NAR forecast focuses on price growth, it's impossible to ignore the ongoing issue of housing inventory. Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale, speaking at the same event, highlighted that the nation faces a housing shortage of nearly 4 million homes. In my opinion, this persistent undersupply is a fundamental factor supporting price stability and even modest growth in many markets. If there aren't enough homes to meet demand, prices are less likely to plummet.

Hale also brought up an interesting point about newly built homes often having slightly lower interest rates due to builder incentives. This is something potential buyers should definitely keep in mind. Sometimes exploring new construction can offer a bit of an edge when it comes to financing.

My Two Cents: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

Based on the NAR data and my own observations of the market, a 3% price growth in 2025 seems like a reasonable and cautiously optimistic prediction. The anticipated easing of mortgage rates and continued job growth are definitely positive indicators. However, the actual trajectory of mortgage rates remains the biggest uncertainty. If rates stay stubbornly high, the predicted rebound in sales might not be as strong, which could temper price growth.

Furthermore, the housing market is hyper-local. What's happening nationally might not perfectly reflect what's going on in your specific city or town. Local economic conditions, inventory levels, and buyer demand will all play a significant role in determining price movements at the local level.

What Does This Mean for You?

  • For Potential Buyers: Don't panic about a sudden price surge, but also don't necessarily expect significant price drops. Keep a close eye on mortgage rate trends. If rates do start to come down, it could be a good time to jump into the market, but be prepared for potential increased competition. Explore all your options, including new constructions that might offer rate incentives. And as Danielle Hale wisely advised, shop around for a mortgage – it can really save you money in the long run.
  • For Current Homeowners: A modest price increase is generally good news for your home equity. However, remember that real estate is a long-term investment. Don't make rash decisions based on short-term forecasts.
  • For Sellers: If you're planning to sell in 2025, the forecast suggests a potentially more active market with modest price growth. However, it's still crucial to price your home competitively based on local market conditions.

Final Thoughts

Predicting the future of the housing market is never an exact science. There are so many interconnected factors at play. However, the latest forecast from the National Association of Realtors provides a valuable insight into what the experts are expecting. While a 3% price growth in 2025 might not be earth-shattering, it suggests a degree of stability and continued moderate appreciation in the housing market. As always, staying informed about your local market and understanding the broader economic trends will be key to making informed decisions.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates: 5-Year ARM Jumps to 7.59% on June 29, 2025

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Buying a home is a huge decision! When interest rates start moving, especially on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), it can feel like navigating a maze. So, let's cut to the chase: According to Zillow, as of June 29, 2025, the average national rate for a 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage has increased from 7.54% to 7.59%.

Today's Mortgage Rates: 5-Year ARM Jumps to 7.59% on June 29, 2025

Mortgage rates are constantly changing. It feels like you need a crystal ball to predict where they're headed next! These fluctuations are based on various economic factors, including inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and overall market sentiment. It is important to keep an eye out for the changes so as to reap the benefits.

What's Happening with Mortgage Rates on June 29, 2025?

Let's take a look at the mortgage rates from Zillow as of today.

Loan Program Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change
Conforming Loans
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.76% Down 0.16% 7.19% Down 0.18%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.32% Down 0.26% 6.67% Down 0.29%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.75% Down 0.21% 6.04% Down 0.22%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% Down 0.15% 6.04% Down 0.03%
7-Year ARM 7.29% Down 0.15% 7.80% Down 0.01%
5-Year ARM 7.59% Up 0.39% 7.96% Up 0.17%
3-Year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%
Government Loans
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.25% Down 0.07% 8.30% Down 0.06%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.26% Down 0.15% 6.44% Down 0.16%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.58% Down 0.01% 6.55% Down 0.02%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.73% Down 0.19% 6.02% Down 0.22%
Jumbo Loans
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.09% Down 0.18% 7.50% Down 0.17%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.46% Down 0.14% 6.71% Down 0.14%
7-Year ARM Jumbo 7.42% Down 0.10% 8.00% Down 0.06%
5-Year ARM Jumbo 7.55% Down 0.17% 7.94% Down 0.15%
3-Year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

Key Takeaways from Today's Mortgage Rate Update:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates: The most popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate saw a slight increase of 1 basis point, climbing to 6.76%. This is still lower than the previous week’s average of 6.91%.
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates: The 15-year fixed mortgage rate remained stable at 5.75%.
  • 5-Year ARM: This is the focus! The rate increased by 5 basis points, moving from 7.54% to 7.59%.

Diving Deeper: What is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?

An ARM is a type of mortgage where the interest rate is fixed for an initial period, then adjusts periodically based on a benchmark index. The 5-year ARM has a fixed rate for the first five years. After that, the rate can change, typically annually, based on the market's performance, usually tied to indexes like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, SOFR.

Why Are ARMs Attractive?

  • Lower Initial Interest Rates: ARMs often start with lower interest rates than fixed-rate mortgages. This can result in lower monthly payments during the initial fixed-rate period.
  • Ideal for Short-Term Homeownership: If you plan to move or refinance within the first five years, an ARM can be a smart choice. Since you're in the fixed-rate period, you benefit from the lower rate without worrying about adjustments.
  • Potential Savings: If interest rates stay low or decrease after the fixed-rate period, you could save money over the life of the loan.

The Risks of ARMs

  • Interest Rate Risk: The biggest risk is that interest rates could rise after the fixed-rate period. This would increase your monthly payments, potentially straining your budget.
  • Payment Shock: If rates rise significantly, you could face a “payment shock” when your mortgage payment jumps substantially.
  • Complexity: ARMs can be more complex than fixed-rate mortgages, making it harder to understand the terms and conditions.

Why Did the 5-Year ARM Rate Go Up?

Several factors could contribute to this increase:

  • Economic Conditions: Positive economic data such as strong employment numbers or rising consumer confidence can indicate inflationary pressures, causing interest rates to rise.
  • Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates greatly influence mortgage rates. Any signals of tightening monetary policy usually lead to higher mortgage rates.
  • Market Sentiment: Investor confidence and expectations about future economic conditions play a role. If investors anticipate higher inflation, they may demand higher yields on mortgage-backed securities, pushing mortgage rates up.

My Take: Weighing the Pros and Cons

I've seen many people benefit from ARMs over the years, but it's essential to be realistic about your financial situation and risk tolerance. A 5-year ARM can be a good option if the initial rate is substantially lower than a comparable fixed-rate mortgage and if you don't plan to stay in the home for more than five years.

However, I always advise people to consider the worst-case scenario. Can you afford higher monthly payments if interest rates go up significantly? Do you have a plan to refinance or sell the home before the rate adjusts? If you're unsure or uncomfortable with these risks, a fixed-rate mortgage might be a better choice.

Fixed vs. Adjustable: Choosing What's Right for You

Here is a comparison between Fixed Rate Mortgages and ARM

Feature Fixed-Rate Mortgage Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
Interest Rate Remains constant throughout the loan term. Fixed for an initial period, then adjusts periodically.
Payment Stability Predictable, consistent monthly payments. Payments can change after the initial fixed-rate period.
Risk Level Lower risk due to stable payments. Higher risk due to potential rate increases.
Ideal For Long-term homeowners who value stability and predictability. Short-term homeowners or those expecting income growth.
Initial Rate Can be higher than ARM's initial rate. Often starts with a lower rate compared to fixed-rate mortgages.
Complexity Simpler to understand. More complex due to variable interest rates.

Other Mortgage Rate Trends

While the 5-year ARM saw an increase, it's worth noting that most other mortgage rates experienced slight decreases over the past week:

  • 30-Year Fixed Rate: Decreased to 6.76%.
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate: Remained steady at 5.75%.

This mixed bag of movements underscores the complexity of the current mortgage market.

The Bottom Line:

The slight increase in the 5-year ARM rate on June 29, 2025, is a snapshot of the ever-changing mortgage market. Stay informed, consider your personal circumstances, and seek expert advice to make smart choices whether you already have a mortgage or are looking to have one. Although the economy may feel like a game of chess, with careful planning and research you can strategically checkmate the perfect deal for you.

Capitalize on ARM Rates Before They Rise Even Higher

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

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Fed Projects Two Interest Rate Cuts Later in 2025

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Today's news from the Federal Reserve (also known as the Fed) might sound a little complicated, but let's break it down. On June 18, 2025, the Fed did not cut interest rates. They left them where they were, in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, the central bank's updated forecast, or their projections, is the real headline-grabber. They're expecting to cut rates twice by the end of 2025. This means that while things seem status quo right now, the Fed is hinting strongly that relief for consumers and businesses is on the horizon.

As someone who's been following economic trends for quite some time now, I can tell you that this is a delicate balancing act. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control while also encouraging economic growth. This is always a tightrope walk, and these projections show they're trying to find the right balance.

Fed Projects Two Interest Rate Cuts Later in 2025

A Steady Hand Today, A Cautious Hope for Tomorrow

The decision to hold rates steady wasn't exactly a surprise. It's the fourth meeting in a row they've kept things the same, following a series of cuts in late 2024 that knocked rates down by 1%. The Fed is all about following the data, and this time, it's telling them to hold steady. The big news, though, is what they think will happen later. They're estimating the benchmark rate could drop to about 3.75%–4% by the end of 2025, which pencils out to two quarter-point cuts.

Now, it's not like everyone on the Fed board is singing the same tune. Here's a quick look at how the Fed's policymakers are leaning:

  • 7 officials: Think there won't be any cuts in 2025.
  • 2 officials: Expect only one cut.
  • 8 officials: Are looking for two cuts.
  • 2 officials: Envision three cuts.

As you can see, there's some disagreement. This shows the complexity of the situation and how the Fed is trying to gauge the future. The majority are playing it safe, signaling they'll ease up gradually in 2025.

What's Driving These Projections? The Economic Outlook

The Fed's forecasts give us some clues as to why they're leaning towards rate cuts. Here’s a brief rundown:

  • Core PCE Inflation: The Fed thinks this will hit 3.1% by the end of 2025 (up from 2.8% in March) before cooling to 2.4% in 2026. This means inflation is still a worry.
  • GDP Growth: They're forecasting 1.4% growth for 2025, slightly lower than their previous prediction of 1.7%. The economy might be slowing down a bit.
  • Unemployment Rate: The Fed projects that it will rise to 4.5% by the end of 2025, from the current 4.2%. This suggests that the labor market might cool off.

These numbers paint a picture. The Fed sees inflation sticking around for a while, which means holding rates steady now. However, with slower growth and a slight uptick in unemployment, they think they can afford to lower rates later without letting inflation get out of control.

Why the Wait? Unpacking the Fed's Reasoning

Why the delay in cutting rates? Several factors are influencing the Fed's patience:

  1. Persistent Inflation: There are ongoing price pressures. Tariffs, especially from measures such as the ones implemented by President Trump on goods from China, drive up the cost of things like electronics. Although the Fed expects this to peak over the summer, additional pressure is possible as a tariff pause expires.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and the war between Russia and Ukraine, continue to impact commodities markets, especially oil. They push up prices and complicate the situation regarding inflation regulation.
  3. Balanced Labor Market: According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the labor market generally is stable. It isn’t particularly adding to inflation at the moment, which reduces the urgent need to lower rates.

Essentially, the Fed is trying to be proactive. By projecting cuts for later in 2025, they acknowledge that the underlying inflationary pressures are likely to ease, allowing them to shift to a more accommodating stance without triggering a fresh wave of inflation.

When Might the Cuts Actually Happen?

The Fed didn't give specific dates, but markets are offering some predictions. Experts believe a cut is unlikely at the late-July meeting, with a better chance at the September meeting, around September 17. A second cut could arrive in November or December.

The fact that the Fed is being so cautious is crucial. They’re showing they want to be sure before making any major moves.

Two Cuts: What It Means for You

The expectation of two interest rate cuts is a big deal for people like you and me. Here's what it could mean:

  • Borrowers: High borrowing costs mean more pain for now. Credit cards might still have APRs around 20%, new car loans about 7.3%, and 30-year mortgages around 6.91%. If cuts happen, these figures may drop by 0.5% or more.
  • Savers: High-yield savings accounts are still looking good. If you’re getting over 4% on your savings, it’ll stay attractive for a while.
  • Businesses: If businesses are dealing with high loan costs and uncertainty over tariffs, they might hold off on investing. Lower rates could be just what they need.

In other words, if you are currently struggling with costs, two anticipated cuts mean you can be hopeful.

Market Reactions and Broader Context

The markets' reaction to the Fed's combined message of “no cut now, two later” was more or less neutral. Stocks saw some interesting changes: the S&P 500 increased, while the Dow dipped slightly, and so did the Nasdaq.

The broader context includes factors like the potential impact of the tariff policies and political pressures on the Fed. The Middle East situation is also an important factor that can potentially upset energy markets.

Looking Ahead

The Federal Reserve's projections give us a cautious sense of hope after today's decision. The focus remains on keeping inflation under control while keeping an eye on risks. As the Fed navigates these challenges, keep in mind that any real shift will probably occur later in 2025.

So, what's my take? As someone in the business of keeping tabs on the market, I think the Fed is doing what it needs to do. They're signaling that they're aware of the challenges facing both consumers and businesses. It’s a balancing act, but the potential for two rate cuts later this year shows they're thinking long-term. It’s a matter of being patient until we see the economy improving.

Position Your Portfolio Ahead of the Fed’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision could shape real estate returns through the rest of 2025. Whether or not a rate cut happens tomorrow, smart investors are acting now.

Norada Real Estate helps you secure cash-flowing properties in stable markets—shielding your investments from volatility and interest rate swings.

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Mortgage Rates Today June 29, 2025: Rates Dip Slightly But Remain Elevated

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Are you curious about the prevailing mortgage rates today? As of June 29, 2025, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is holding steady at 6.75%, according to Zillow. While there's a slight decrease in mortgage rates from last week, rates remain relatively high. Here's a breakdown of everything you need to know.

Mortgage Rates Today, June 29, 2025: Rates Dip Slightly But Remain Elevated

Key Takeaways:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Averaging 6.75%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week.
  • Refinance Rates: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates also dipped, going down to 6.99%.
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Holding at 5.75%.
  • 5-Year ARM: Increased slightly to 7.58%.

It's important to keep a close eye on the current mortgage rates as you make your financial decisions, whether you're buying a home or refinancing.

Mortgage Rates on June 29, 2025: A Closer Look

As of today, June 29, 2025, mortgage rates show a slight downward trend compared to last week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.75%. This is a decrease of 16 basis points (0.16%) from the previous week's average of 6.91%.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate remains steady at 5.75%. Meanwhile, the 5-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) saw a slight increase, going up 4 basis points to 7.58%. It will be interesting to see any mortgage rate predictions for the rest of the year. I think a lot of people are hoping for rates to go down.

Here's a summary of the current national average mortgage rates according to Zillow:

  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.75%
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.75%
  • 5-Year ARM: 7.58%

Current Mortgage Rates by Loan Type

To provide a more detailed picture, here's a table comparing current mortgage rates for various loan types. This data is updated daily, so you can stay informed about week-over-week changes.

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.75% down 0.17% 7.20% down 0.17%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.32% down 0.26% 6.67% down 0.29%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.75% down 0.22% 6.04% down 0.22%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% down 0.15% 6.04% down 0.03%
7-year ARM 7.29% down 0.15% 7.80% down 0.01%
5-year ARM 7.58% up 0.38% 7.97% up 0.18%
3-year ARM – 0.00% – 0.00%

Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.96% down 0.37% 7.99% down 0.37%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.23% down 0.17% 6.45% down 0.16%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.50% down 0.09% 6.46% down 0.10%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.64% down 0.28% 5.99% down 0.25%

Understanding APR

You'll notice both mortgage rates and APR (Annual Percentage Rate) are listed. The APR is more than just the interest rate; it includes other costs like lender fees, points, and other charges. The APR gives you a better overall picture of the cost of the loan. I think paying close attention to that number is important!

Current Refinance Rates on June 29, 2025: Is Now a Good Time to Refinance?

If you're considering refinancing your home, it's crucial to stay informed about current refinance rates. As of June 29, 2025, the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate is 6.99%, a decrease of 6 basis points from 7.05% on Sunday.

The 30-year fixed refinance rate is down 17 basis points from the previous week's average of 7.16%. The 15-year fixed refinance rate decreased slightly, going from 5.84% to 5.83%. However, the 5-year ARM refinance rate increased by 8 basis points, from 7.74% to 7.82%.

Here's a table comparing refinance mortgage rates for different loan types, including week-over-week changes.

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.75% down 0.17% 7.20% down 0.17%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.32% down 0.26% 6.67% down 0.29%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.75% down 0.22% 6.04% down 0.22%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.78% down 0.15% 6.04% down 0.03%
7-year ARM 7.29% down 0.15% 7.80% down 0.01%
5-year ARM 7.58% up 0.38% 7.97% up 0.18%
3-year ARM – 0.00% – 0.00%

Is Refinancing Right for You?

Refinancing can be a smart move if you can lower your interest rate, shorten your loan term, or switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate mortgage. However, it's important to consider closing costs and other fees. Always do the math to see if the long-term savings outweigh the upfront expenses. Everyone's situation is different.

Why Are Mortgage Rates So High in 2025?

Even though we're seeing slight decreases this week, many people are wondering, “Why are today's mortgage rates so stubbornly high in 2025?” It's a complex question with several factors at play. Here are a few key reasons:

  • Lingering Inflation and Federal Reserve Caution: Inflation continues to be a concern, and the Federal Reserve is being very careful about cutting interest rates too quickly. They don't want to risk inflation spiking again! This cautious approach means we're likely in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment. Higher interest rates translate to higher mortgage rates.
  • Bond Market Dynamics: Mortgage rates are closely tied to the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds. When those yields go up, so do mortgage rates.
  • Economic and Political Factors: Global events, like geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around economic policies can also influence mortgage rates. Investors may demand higher returns on bonds due to economic uncertainty, which can push rates higher.
  • Housing Market Headwinds: Many homeowners are “locked in” to low mortgage rates from previous years, making them reluctant to sell. This reduces the available housing inventory, which can keep prices high. High prices and high mortgage interest rates create affordability challenges for many potential buyers.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2025?

  • No Ultra-Low Rates Reappearing: Those super-low rates we saw during the pandemic? Don't expect them to come back. We're talking about the historical rates like 2% to 3%, so it's unlikely to happen anytime soon.
  • “Higher-for-Longer” is the Name of the Game: Experts are saying we're in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate situation. This means rates will probably stay higher for a while.
  • Expect Gradual Drops: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) might make some cuts to interest rates, but these will likely happen slowly.
  • Mortgage Rates Follow the Fed's Lead: Mortgage Rates tend to mirror the Federal Reserve's actions, so if the Fed cuts its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are likely to follow suit. That's just how it goes.
  • Bond Market Matters: Mortgage rates are also heavily influenced by the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. Currently, those bonds are showing a slight upward trend, which can impact mortgage rates.

In a nutshell, there's a chance mortgage rates could go down a bit in 2025, but it's not a sure thing. Whether they drop and how much they drop depends on what happens with the economy, the Fed's decisions, and what's going on around the world. It's a waiting game!

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

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