The current state of the Maryland housing market presents a nuanced scenario for both buyers and sellers. The increase in average and median sales prices indicates a market favoring sellers. However, the decline in new listings and active inventory suggests a potential shift, making it essential for buyers to navigate with careful consideration. The balance between buyer and seller dynamics requires a vigilant approach from both parties.
Is the Maryland Housing Market Slowing Down?
As of January 2024, the Maryland housing market is under scrutiny, with various key indicators reflecting potential shifts. Let's delve into the data by Maryland REALTORS® to understand if the Maryland housing market is slowing down.
Housing Statistics Overview:
Examining the housing statistics for January 2024 reveals significant insights into the state of the market.
- Units Sold: In the first month of 2024, there were 3,714 units sold, experiencing a modest decline of 3.8% compared to the same period in 2023.
- Average Sales Price: The average sales price witnessed a notable increase, rising by 7.3% to reach $450,033 in January 2024, compared to $419,556 in January 2023.
- Median Sales Price: The median sales price also demonstrated an upward trend, showing a 6.9% growth from $360,000 in 2023 to $385,000 in 2024.
- Units Pending (Under Contract): The number of units under contract increased to 5,024 in January 2024, reflecting a positive shift in buyer activity compared to the previous year's figure of 4,996.
- Active Inventory: The active inventory, however, experienced a decline, with 7,815 units in 2024 compared to 10,438 units in 2023, signaling potential changes in market dynamics.
- Months of Inventory: The months of inventory remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 1.5 in 2023 to 1.4 in 2024.
- Median Days on Market: Properties spent a median of 18 days on the market in January 2024, showcasing a faster pace compared to the 21 days in the same period of the previous year.
- New Listings: The number of new listings declined from 6,535 in 2023 to 5,098 in 2024, suggesting a potential shift in seller behavior.
Analysis and Implications:
Market Trends: The increase in average and median sales prices suggests a robust demand for housing in Maryland. However, the decline in new listings and active inventory could be indicative of a slowdown in seller activity, potentially contributing to a more competitive market for buyers. Montgomery County is the most expensive real estate market in Maryland with a median sales price of $703,203. Allegany County is the least expensive real estate market in Maryland with a median sales price of $151,084.
Buyer-Seller Balance: The rise in units pending under contract indicates a continued interest from buyers, but the reduced active inventory may pose challenges for those in search of diverse options. The months of inventory, though slightly lower, still reflect a relatively balanced market.
Days on Market: The decrease in median days on market is a positive sign for sellers, indicating a quicker turnaround time for property sales. Buyers, on the other hand, may need to act swiftly in this fast-paced market.
Maryland Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025
As of January 31, 2024, the average home value in Maryland stands at $401,305, reflecting a notable increase of 3.5% over the past year. According to Zillow, a prominent real estate data source, the market is dynamic, with homes typically going pending in around 15 days.
Key Housing Metrics
For Sale Inventory (January 31, 2024): The Maryland housing market boasts a robust inventory, with 10,608 homes available for sale as of the end of January 2024.
New Listings (January 31, 2024): The market remains active, witnessing 3,652 new listings in January 2024, showcasing ongoing interest and growth.
Median Sale to List Ratio (December 31, 2023): A key indicator of market competitiveness, the median sale to list ratio as of December 31, 2023, stood at 1.000, underlining a balanced and stable market.
Median Sale Price (December 31, 2023): The median sale price in Maryland reached $364,967 as of December 31, 2023, indicating the overall value of properties in the state.
Median List Price (January 31, 2024): Looking ahead, the median list price for homes in Maryland as of January 31, 2024, is $374,933, providing insights into sellers' expectations in the current market.
Percent of Sales Over List Price (December 31, 2023): As of December 31, 2023, 39.6% of sales were recorded over the list price, underscoring the competitiveness of the market.
Percent of Sales Under List Price (December 31, 2023): Additionally, 35.7% of sales were executed under the list price by the end of December 2023, showcasing diverse opportunities for buyers.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Maryland?
Contrary to a decline in home prices, the Maryland housing market is witnessing an upward trend. The average home value has experienced a 3.5% increase over the past year, reaching $401,305 as of January 31, 2024. This upward trajectory suggests a strengthening market with sustained demand, making it an opportune time for sellers.
Assessing the current state of the Maryland housing market, it leans towards being a seller's market. With a relatively low inventory of 10,608 homes for sale as of January 31, 2024, and a median list price of $374,933, sellers have a competitive advantage. The median sale to list ratio of 1.000 as of December 31, 2023, further indicates the equilibrium slightly favoring sellers, emphasizing their ability to secure favorable terms.
Will the Maryland Housing Market Crash?
As of the available data, there is no imminent indication of a housing market crash in Maryland. The market conditions, characterized by a balanced median sale to list ratio, steady median sale price, and active new listings, point towards a stable real estate environment. However, market dynamics can change, and it's crucial to monitor economic factors and trends for a comprehensive outlook.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Maryland?
For potential buyers, the decision to purchase a home in Maryland depends on various factors. While the market currently favors sellers, opportunities exist for buyers, especially considering the 35.7% of sales recorded under the list price as of December 31, 2023. The key is to carefully assess personal financial readiness, market trends, and individual preferences before making this significant investment.
Ultimately, while some areas may experience shifts in home prices, the overall health and resilience of the Maryland housing market will depend on a multitude of factors. Staying informed and understanding the nuances of regional forecasts will empower individuals to navigate the real estate landscape wisely and make informed decisions based on the latest data.
Regional Housing Market Forecast in Maryland
Baltimore, MD
As of January 31, 2024, the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, is showing positive signs of growth. The forecast indicates a modest increase in the Home Price Index (HPI), with a projection of 0.1% by February 29, 2024, followed by a more substantial uptick to 0.8% by April 30, 2024. Looking further into the future, the forecast predicts a 2% increase in the HPI by January 31, 2025. These projections suggest a steady and optimistic trajectory for the Baltimore housing market over the coming months.
Hagerstown, MD
The housing market in Hagerstown, Maryland, reflects a similar positive outlook. As of January 31, 2024, the forecast anticipates a 0.3% increase in the HPI by February 29, 2024, followed by a more substantial rise to 1.4% by April 30, 2024. Looking ahead to January 31, 2025, the forecast projects a 4.6% increase in the HPI, indicating a robust and growing real estate market in Hagerstown. These figures suggest a favorable environment for both buyers and sellers in the near future.
California, MD
In California, Maryland, the housing market remains stable, showing a gradual but positive trend. As of January 31, 2024, the forecast suggests a 0% change in the HPI by February 29, 2024, followed by a 0.4% increase by April 30, 2024. Looking ahead to January 31, 2025, a 1.4% increase in the HPI is projected. While the growth is moderate, it indicates a steady and sustainable real estate market in California, MD, with potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
Cumberland, MD
Cumberland, Maryland, exhibits positive indicators in its housing market forecast. As of January 31, 2024, a 0.2% increase in the HPI is projected by February 29, 2024, followed by a 1.1% rise by April 30, 2024. Looking further into the future, the forecast anticipates a 2.9% increase in the HPI by January 31, 2025. These figures suggest a promising and growing real estate market in Cumberland, providing potential opportunities for those involved in property transactions.
Easton, MD
The housing market in Easton, Maryland, is poised for growth according to the forecast. As of January 31, 2024, a 0.2% increase in the HPI is expected by February 29, 2024, followed by a 0.9% rise by April 30, 2024. Looking ahead to January 31, 2025, the forecast projects a 3.1% increase in the HPI. These projections indicate a positive trend, suggesting a buoyant real estate market in Easton with potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
Cambridge, MD
Cambridge, Maryland, displays a positive housing market forecast as of January 31, 2024. The projections indicate a 0.1% increase in the HPI by February 29, 2024, followed by a 1% rise by April 30, 2024. Looking further into the future, the forecast anticipates a 4.2% increase in the HPI by January 31, 2025. These figures underscore a flourishing real estate market in Cambridge, MD, offering potential opportunities for those engaged in property transactions.
Overall, the regional housing market forecasts for these Maryland cities suggest positive trends, with varying degrees of growth, providing valuable insights for individuals navigating the real estate landscape in each locality.
Sources:
- http://www.mdrealtor.org/News-and-Events/Housing-Statistics
- https://www.zillow.com/md/home-values/
- https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/01glance/html/pop.html
- https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/01glance/economy/html/economy.html