If you're like most people eyeing the housing market, you're probably glued to mortgage rate charts in 2025. The big question is: what have mortgage rates trends over the past year looked like? According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® by Freddie Mac, as of July 3rd, 2025, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage sits at 6.67%, while the 15-year fixed rate is at 5.80%. Keep reading for a closer look at how we got here and what it might mean for you. Let's dive in.

Mortgage Rates Chart and Trends Over the Past One Year: July 2025

What’s Been Happening?

To understand where we are today, let's take a look back. The last year has been a rollercoaster for mortgage rates, influenced by a mix of economic factors. Inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and overall economic growth (or lack thereof) have all played a role and a constant worry has been the fear of a recession.

Here's a quick rundown of the general movement:

• Summer 2024 (July – August): Rates started relatively high, hovering around 6.95% for the 30-year FRM in early July, but started a descent to 6.35% by late August. The 15-year FRM followed the same with a smaller difference.
• Fall 2024 (September – November): We saw a dip to the lowest point of the year in late September (6.08% for 30-year), but then a gradual climb back up nearing the end of the year.
• Winter 2024-2025 (December – February): Rates peaked, reaching the highest point of the year with 30 year at 7.04% in mid-January, before settling back down.
• Spring 2025 (March – May): A period of relative stability, with rates mostly in the mid-6% range.
• Early Summer 2025 (June – July): A slight downward trend, bringing us to the current rates.

A Closer Look at the Numbers (as of July 3rd, 2025)

Let's break down the specifics so you can see the details (Freddie Mac):

Metric	30-Yr FRM	15-Yr FRM
Current Rate	6.67%	5.80%
1-Week Change	-0.1%	-0.09%
1-Year Change	-0.28%	-0.45%
Monthly Average	6.77%	5.9%
52-Week Average	6.68%	5.86%
52-Week Range High	7.04%	6.27%
52-Week Range Low	6.08%	5.15%

What Does This Mean for You?

Interest rates have a big impact on how much house you can afford and how much your monthly payment will be. Let's say you are thinking about buying a house. Here's what these changes mean for you:

• If you bought a year ago: You might be paying slightly higher interest rate as a house buyer, but hey, nobody's perfect.
• If you're buying now: You're in a similar situation, with rates slightly lower than last year.
• Planning to refinance?: If interest rates go down, now may be a good time to consider refinancing, as you would be on the right side of the trade.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM): The Classic Choice

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is a popular choice for many homebuyers, and there's a good reason for that:

• Stability: The interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan, providing predictable monthly payments.
• Affordability: Spreading payments out over 30 years can make monthly payments more affordable, especially for first-time buyers.

However, it's important to remember that you'll pay more interest over the life of the loan.

15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (FRM): Pay it Off Faster

A 15-year fixed-rate mortgage offers some compelling advantages:

• Lower Interest Rates: Typically, 15-year mortgages come with lower interest rates compared to 30-year loans.
• Faster Equity Building: You'll build equity in your home much faster.
• Less Interest Paid Overall: You'll save a significant amount of money on interest over the life of the loan.

The downside? Higher monthly payments, because you're paying off the loan in half the time.

What Factors Influence Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates don't just appear out of thin air, and they're influenced by a bunch of different things happening in the economy:

• Inflation: One of the biggest drivers. When inflation goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow. The market will push for higher ROI to compensate for inflation.
• Federal Reserve (The Fed): The Fed's monetary policy decisions, like raising or lowering the federal funds rate, impact mortgage rates.
• Economic Growth: A strong economy usually leads to higher rates, as investors demand a higher return on investment.
• Housing Market Conditions: Supply and demand in the housing market also play a role. High demand can push rates up, while low demand can bring them down.
• Global Economic Factors: Events happening around the world can also influence U.S. mortgage rates. Uncertainty with major European countries may cause investors to look for safer bets in the US bond market, improving rates.

My Thoughts on Where Rates Might Go

Okay, so here's where I put on my armchair economist hat. Trying to predict the future of mortgage rates is tough, but here's my take based on what I'm seeing:

• Inflation is Key: If inflation continues to cool down, we could see rates stabilize or even drop a bit.
• The Fed's Next Move: All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Further rate hikes could push mortgage rates higher, while a pause or rate cut could have the opposite effect.
• Economic Growth: A slowdown in economic growth could lead to lower rates, as investors seek safer investments.

I think we'll probably see a period of relative stability in the near term. We are just going to bounce around these numbers and hopefully the market will make up what to do next. But hey, that's just my guess.

Tips for Homebuyers in the Current Market

If you're thinking about buying a home, here's some advice:

• Get Pre-Approved: Know how much you can borrow so you can make offers quickly.
• Shop Around: Don't just go with the first lender you find. Compare rates and fees from multiple lenders.
• Consider All Options: Explore different types of mortgages, like fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, and government-backed loans.
• Improve Your Credit Score: A higher credit score can help you get a lower interest rate.
• Save for a Larger Down Payment: A bigger down payment can reduce your loan amount and potentially lower your rate.

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): A Word of Caution

While fixed-rate mortgages offer stability, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can be tempting with their initially lower rates. However, proceed with caution:

• Rate Adjustments: The interest rate on an ARM can change over time, based on market conditions, therefore resulting in higher, or lower payments. That's a bet, right?
• Risk: If rates rise, your monthly payments could increase significantly, making it harder to afford your mortgage.

I'm personally not a fan of ARMs unless you know for a fact you'll be moving or refinancing within a few years, and even then, the savings might not be worth the risk.

In Conclusion

Mortgage rates trends over the past year have been a mixed bag, influenced by a variety of economic factors. As of July 3rd, 2025, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.67%, and the 15-year is 5.80%. Keep a close eye on inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall economic conditions to get a sense of where rates might be headed. And remember, always do your homework and shop around for the best mortgage for your unique situation.