Mortgage Rates Today, February 16: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 2 Basis Points

If you're thinking about refinancing your home on this February 16th, 2026, you'll notice that the popular 30-year fixed refinance rate has seen a slight uptick, moving up by just 2 basis points from last week. While it's not a dramatic change, it's a good reminder that mortgage rates can shift, and staying informed is key for making the best financial decisions for your home. We're seeing a bit of a mixed bag out there today, with some rates ticking up and others showing more significant changes, especially when we look at adjustable-rate mortgages.

Mortgage Rates Today – February 16, 2026: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 2 Basis Points

Today's Refinance Rates at a Glance

Let's break down what the numbers are telling us today, according to Zillow's latest data.

Digging Deeper: What These Numbers Mean for You

You might be wondering, “What does a 4 basis point increase really mean?” Well, in the world of mortgages, even seemingly small changes can add up.

• The 30-Year Fixed: This is the workhorse for many homeowners, and today it's sitting at an average of 6.50%. This is a 4 basis point jump from yesterday. While that might sound tiny, if you're thinking about refinancing a significant amount, it can impact your monthly payment. Compared to last week's average of 6.48%, we're seeing a 2 basis point climb. This indicates a gentle upward trend, which suggests lenders are watching the economic signals carefully. It’s not a huge surge, but it’s enough to encourage those who have been on the fence to maybe consider acting sooner rather than later, especially if their current rate is much higher.
• The 15-Year Fixed: For those looking to pay off their mortgage faster, the 15-year fixed refinance rate has also moved up, now averaging 5.50%. This is a 5 basis point increase from yesterday. The appeal of a 15-year loan is its shorter term and typically lower interest rate, helping you save a lot of money on interest over time. However, with rates trending upwards, homeowners will need to weigh that benefit against the higher monthly payment they'll likely see compared to a 30-year loan.
• The 5-Year ARM: This is where we see the most noticeable shift today. The 5-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) refinance rate has jumped up by a significant 30 basis points, landing at 7.12%. This is a pretty big move for an ARM in a single day. ARMs are attractive because they often start with a lower introductory rate than fixed-rate mortgages. However, as this sharp increase shows, they can become more expensive quickly if interest rates rise. This jump is a strong signal to be very cautious if you're considering an ARM right now, or if you already have one, to be prepared for potential payment increases down the line.

Market Insights: Why the Movement?

Understanding why rates change is just as important as knowing the rates themselves. Several factors are influencing these shifts.

• The Federal Reserve's Footing: The Federal Reserve's actions (or inactions) have a huge impact on borrowing costs. We saw them make a few rate cuts in late 2025, which was great for lowering mortgage costs. However, they held the federal funds rate steady at their January 28, 2026, meeting. Now, with some recent reports showing inflation cooling down a bit in January, the market is buzzing with the possibility of another rate cut by June 2026. This kind of news can create uncertainty and lead to minor rate adjustments as lenders try to price in future expectations. My take is that the Fed is playing a careful game, trying to balance economic growth with keeping inflation in check.
• Treasury Yields and Economic Signals: Mortgage rates often move in tandem with the yields on Treasury bonds, especially the 10-year Treasury note. When Treasury yields go up, mortgage rates tend to follow suit, and vice versa. The slight increase in fixed rates today likely reflects some upward movement in Treasury yields, possibly due to strong economic data or market anticipation of future Fed actions. The significant jump in ARM rates is particularly sensitive to these short-term yield fluctuations.
• A Resilient Economy: It’s good news that the labor market is strong and the economy is showing resilience. This is generally a positive sign for overall financial health, but it can also keep interest rates from falling too rapidly. Lenders might be anticipating continued economic strength, which could lead them to keep rates from dropping too much.

Refinance Opportunities: Is Now the Time?

This is the big question on everyone's mind. With rates nudging up, it makes you wonder if you should jump on refinancing or wait.

According to insights from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), refinance activity has actually seen a massive surge – up 101% compared to a year ago! A lot of this is driven by borrowers who took out loans in 2024 and 2025 when rates were higher, likely above 7%. These folks are now seeing opportunities to lower their monthly payments significantly by refinancing.

However, it's important to note that many Americans are currently “locked in” with mortgage rates below 5%. For these homeowners, refinancing right now might not make financial sense unless rates drop considerably lower than today's averages. My personal opinion is that if your current rate is 7% or higher, it’s definitely worth exploring a refinance. Even a small reduction can save you thousands over the life of your loan. But if you're already in that sub-5% range, you're in a great spot and might want to hold off unless there's a substantial drop in rates.

Impact on Borrowers: What Should You Do?

So, what does all this mean for you as a homeowner or potential borrower?

• Homeowners Considering Refinancing: The slight rise in fixed rates today might serve as a nudge for those who have been procrastinating. If you've been looking at refinancing your 30-year fixed or 15-year fixed loan and your current rate is significantly higher than today's 6.50% or 5.50%, it could be a good time to at least get some quotes and see if you can lock in a lower rate before they potentially move higher.
• Those With ARMs: The sharp increase in the 5-year ARM rate to 7.12% is a serious warning sign. If you have an ARM, or are considering one, understand that your payments can change quickly. This is especially true in a market where rates are showing upward momentum. You need to be very comfortable with the possibility of your payments increasing.
• Planning for the Future: It's always wise to remember that even minor changes in basis points can have a big impact on your total interest paid over the 15 or 30 years of your mortgage. Understanding these costs is crucial for your long-term financial planning.

A Quick Summary for Today's Rates

To wrap up, on February 16, 2026, mortgage refinance rates are showing a mixed bag. We're seeing small increases in fixed-rate options, like the 30-year fixed at 6.50%, and a more substantial jump in adjustable-rate mortgages, with the 5-year ARM reaching 7.12%. The market is influenced by Federal Reserve signals, economic performance, and Treasury yields. For many homeowners who took out loans at higher rates in previous years, refinancing remains a smart move to save money. However, those with already low rates should proceed with caution. Staying informed and acting strategically are your best bets for navigating these ever-changing financial waters and securing your homeownership goals.