Mortgage Rates Today, February 9: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 6 Basis Points

If you're thinking about refinancing your home, or even buying a new one, the numbers are telling us something important today, February 9, 2026. The widely followed 30-year fixed refinance rate has nudged up by 6 basis points to 6.61%, according to Zillow's latest data. While this isn't a dramatic jump, it’s a clear signal that borrowing costs are seeing a bit of upward movement, and it’s worth paying attention to.  For a homeowner looking to tap into equity or simply secure a better rate, every fraction of a percent matters.

The good news, however, is that the 15-year fixed refinance rate is holding steady, offering a more budget-friendly and faster payoff option for those who qualify.

Mortgage Rates Today, February 9, 2026: 30-Year Refi Rate Creeps Up 6 Basis Points

Today's Refinance Rates at a Glance

Let’s break down the numbers as of February 9, 2026:

• 30-year fixed refinance rate: 6.61% (This is the one that saw the recent increase.)
• 15-year fixed refinance rate: 5.68% (Holding strong and steady.)
• 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) refinance rate: 7.19% (This option is currently pricier than fixed rates.)

Understanding the Market Context

You might be wondering why these rates move. It’s a complex mix of economic signals, but the 30-year fixed rate is always the one most people watch. At 6.61%, it’s still in a zone that many homeowners might find acceptable, especially when compared to rates seen in recent years past, but the climb means those looking to refinance might want to act sooner rather than later if they see this as a peak.

The 15-year fixed refinance rate at 5.68% is a really attractive option if you can handle a higher monthly payment. The benefit is you'll own your home free and clear much sooner and save a substantial amount on interest over the life of the loan. Its stability right now is a welcome relief in a market that’s showing signs of upward pressure elsewhere.

Then there’s the 5-year ARM. At 7.19%, it’s currently out-priced by both fixed-rate options. For a while, ARMs were making a comeback as rates hovered around 7%, but today, the math just doesn't add up for most people looking for a good deal. Unless you have a very specific plan for moving or refinancing again before the adjustment period, the higher initial rate and the uncertainty of future increases make it a riskier bet.

The True Cost of Refinancing: Beyond the Rate

It's crucial to remember that the interest rate isn't the only cost you'll face when refinancing. My experience tells me people often underestimate closing costs. Typically, you're looking at expenses ranging from 2% to 6% of your new loan amount. For a $300,000 mortgage, that could mean anywhere from $6,000 to a hefty $18,000 in fees. This is money you need to have readily available or factor into your decision.

Here’s a glimpse at some of the common fees you'll encounter:

When I discuss refinancing with clients, I always emphasize shopping around. Lenders have different fee structures, and what one charges for origination, another might waive. It's like buying a car; you wouldn't go to just one dealership, right? The same principle applies to mortgages.

Who Benefits and Who Might Wait?

So, what does this slight tick-up in rates mean for you?

• Homeowners Looking to Refinance: The 6.61% on the 30-year fixed might be a call to action. If you’ve been on the fence, and your financial situation is solid, acting now could be smart to lock in at this level before any further increases. However, don't ignore that solid 5.68% on the 15-year. If that fits your budget, it's a fantastic opportunity to get out of debt faster.
• First-Time Homebuyers: For those looking to purchase, the rates are still stable enough to allow for predictable budgeting. While rates above 6% mean higher monthly payments than we saw during the ultra-low periods, they’re not at crisis levels. Buyers still have a chance to secure a fixed-rate loan and know what their principal and interest payments will be for decades.
• Real Estate Investors: With the 5-year ARM sitting at 7.19%, it's less attractive for investors who often rely on flexibility or short-term holding strategies. The predictability of fixed rates, even at 6.61%, is likely more appealing for long-term investment planning right now.

Deeper Dive: What's Driving These Numbers?

It's not just random fluctuations. The mortgage market is heavily influenced by broader economic conditions, and that includes the Federal Reserve's actions and inflation.

• A Refinance Boom (of sorts): The Mortgage Bankers Association noted a significant jump in refinancing activity, with their index surging by 117% compared to early 2025. This surge is largely driven by homeowners who took out loans when rates were higher than 7% just last year or the year before. They're now seizing the opportunity to refinance into lower rates, even if today's rates are a bit higher than last week's.
• Federal Reserve's Stance: The Federal Reserve made a decision to keep the federal funds rate steady in its January 2026 meeting, leaving it between 3.5% and 3.75%. The general consensus among experts is that the Fed will likely keep rates on hold for most of 2026. However, a small group of analysts are watching inflation closely and believe there might be one or two small rate cuts later in the year if inflation data cooperates. This caution from the Fed translates to a degree of stability in the mortgage market, but it also means we're unlikely to see a dramatic drop in rates anytime soon.
• The Shadow of Negative Equity: A concerning trend highlighted is that nearly 1.1 million borrowers found themselves in negative equity (owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth) by the end of 2025. This is the highest number we've seen since 2018. This problem is particularly pronounced in southern housing markets and affects FHA and VA loans taken out since 2022. This situation can make refinancing difficult, as lenders often require homeowners to have positive equity.

Looking Ahead: The 2026 Outlook

What should we expect for the rest of 2026? Most housing economists are predicting relative stability. They anticipate that **30-year fixed mortgage rates will likely hover in the 6% to 6.5% range for the remainder of the year. There are some more optimistic predictions, like those from Morgan Stanley, suggesting rates could potentially dip to 5.50%-5.75% by mid-2026 if Treasury yields continue to fall. However, the more conservative forecasts from major players like Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association point to an average 30-year rate of around 6.1% for the entire year.

From my perspective, this suggests that while we might see some minor fluctuations – like the 6 basis point rise we’re seeing today – the overall trend for 2026 points towards a relatively stable, albeit higher, interest rate environment compared to the historical lows of recent years. This means homeowners and buyers need to be strategic and understand their options.