Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 20: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 16 Basis Points

If you've been thinking about refinancing your mortgage, today, January 20, 2026, shows a slight uptick in the most popular long-term fixed rate. According to Zillow, the 30-year fixed refinance rate is holding steady at 6.68% from yesterday, but it's actually 16 basis points higher than it was a week ago, meaning borrowing money is a touch more expensive now than it was seven days prior. This nuanced movement in mortgage rates is crucial for anyone looking to lower their monthly payments or tap into their home equity.

Lenders are adjusting their offers based on a lot of factors, and it’s our job as homeowners to stay informed. Let's break down what's happening with mortgage refinance rates today, according to Zillow's latest data, and what it might mean for your wallet.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 20: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 16 Basis Points

30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: A Familiar Tune

The 30-year fixed refinance rate is the gold standard for many homeowners seeking stability. Today, it’s sitting at 6.68%. While that number didn't budge from yesterday, the fact that it's 16 basis points higher than last week (when it was 6.52%) is a key detail. Think of basis points like tiny steps – a 16-point rise might not seem huge, but it translates to a bit more interest paid over the life of your loan.

For many of us, the 30-year fixed option offers peace of mind. You know exactly what your principal and interest payment will be for the next three decades. This current rate, while stable today, is a reminder that the market can shift. It suggests that lenders have perhaps paused their rate cuts for the moment, but the environment still points towards slightly higher borrowing costs compared to earlier in the month. This is a crucial piece of information if you were holding out for rates to drop significantly.

15-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: The Quick Saver

If you're looking to pay off your mortgage faster and build equity quicker, the 15-year fixed refinance rate is often your best bet. Today, this rate is also holding steady at 5.66%. This is great news for those who prefer shorter terms and are already in a good position to handle slightly higher monthly payments for a shorter period.

While shorter loan terms typically come with lower interest rates, the gap between the 30-year and 15-year options right now isn't as wide as it sometimes is. This can be a trade-off to consider. Some homeowners might opt for the lower monthly payment of a 30-year loan even with a slightly higher rate, while others prioritize paying off their debt sooner.

5-Year ARM Refinance Rate: A Riskier Proposition Today

Where we're seeing a more significant shift is with the 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) refinance rate. This rate has jumped by 20 basis points, moving from 7.13% to 7.33% just today. ARMs are known for offering lower introductory rates, making them attractive to borrowers who plan to sell or refinance before the first rate adjustment period kicks in.

However, this sharp increase is a clear signal. It highlights the inherent risk of ARMs. While you might get a lower rate initially, the potential for future increases is very real. The fact that this rate has gone up significantly in a single day, and now sits higher than the 30-year fixed rate, definitely makes it a less appealing option for many homeowners at this moment. It's a classic example of the trade-off between initial savings and long-term unpredictability.

A Snapshot of the Week: What's Changed?

To really get a grasp on the market, it's helpful to see how things have evolved over the past week, according to Zillow.

As you can see, the 30-year fixed and 5-year ARM have both seen increases in their average rates compared to last week, with the ARM showing the most pronounced upward movement. The 15-year fixed has remained remarkably consistent.

Day-to-Day Fluctuations: What's Happening Right Now?

Let's also look at the day-to-day changes to understand the immediate market temperature.

This table really highlights the story of the day: both fixed-rate options are holding their ground from yesterday, while the 5-year ARM has experienced that significant price hike.

Key Takeaways for Homeowners

So, what does all this mean for you?

• The 30-year fixed refinance rate is stable today, but it's a bit more expensive than it was last week. This means if you were waiting for a perfect moment, it might be good to re-evaluate your comfort level with this week's rate.
• The 15-year fixed rate is showing real consistency. If you prefer a shorter mortgage term, this rate has been a solid rock.
• The 5-year ARM is the most volatile player right now, with a notable increase. This underscores the inherent risk in these types of loans, especially when rates are already on the rise.

Looking Ahead: What's Predicted for Early 2026?

Forecasting the future is tricky, but experts have some pretty solid ideas about where mortgage rates are headed. Analysts from Fannie Mae, NAR, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are generally expecting the 30-year fixed rate to average somewhere between 5.9% and 6.4% in 2026. This optimism is largely based on anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and signs that the housing market will become more affordable.

• Alternative Loans: For those who might not qualify for the absolute best rates, FHA and VA loans could offer even lower options, potentially in the 5.5% to 5.75% range. These are fantastic programs for specific groups of borrowers.
• Savings Potential: Imagine refinancing a $300,000 loan if rates dip below 6%. You could be looking at saving roughly $1,080 per year. That's a pretty sweet deal!
• Risks to Watch: Of course, it's not all smooth sailing. Things like stubborn inflation, unexpected shifts in the job market, and changes in government policy could all impact how far rates can actually drop.

Why the Market is Doing What It's Doing: Trending News and Drivers

It's fascinating to see what's actually moving these rates.

• Refinance Demand is Skyrocketing: We've seen a 40% surge in weekly refinance applications recently, and demand is a whopping 128% higher than this time last year. This shows a lot of homeowners are actively seeking to refinance.
• Government Intervention: A big factor recently was an announcement from President Trump directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The goal was to push rates down and make homeownership more accessible.
• The Federal Reserve's Role: While the Fed has been cutting rates, they're expected to either pause or make only one more cut in 2026. This suggests rates might “hover” around the low 6% range for a good chunk of the year.
• The “Lock-In” Effect: Many homeowners have mortgages with rates below 5%, which is why they're hesitant to refinance. Experts call this a “slow thaw” – while some are refinancing, a large majority are waiting for rates to drop even further before they make a move.

Refinance Opportunities in 2026: Who Benefits?

• 2023-2024 Buyers: If you bought a home in 2023 or 2024 and locked in a rate of 7.25% or higher, refinancing now at rates closer to 6% could save you over $300 per month on a $400,000 loan. That's a significant chunk of change!
• The Rise of HELOCs: For those who can't fully refinance without giving up a great existing rate, many are turning to Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) or home equity loans. This allows them to access cash for renovations or other needs without touching their primary mortgage.
• Digital Innovation: The mortgage process is getting faster. Nearly 86% of applicants now prefer using online tools to speed things up and potentially lower closing costs.

The Bottom Line

As of January 20, 2026, the mortgage refinance rate picture is a bit mixed. We're seeing stability in the most popular fixed-rate options, but a noticeable jump in adjustable-rate mortgages. For homeowners like me, this means it’s crucial to weigh the comfort of a predictable fixed payment against the potential risks of an ARM. With rates still a bit higher than they were last week, careful planning and shopping around are more important than ever if you're thinking about refinancing.