Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 6: 30-Year Refinance Rate Drops by 6 Basis Points

It's a bit of good news for those looking to adjust their home loans: as of January 6, 2026, the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate has ticked down by 6 basis points, settling at 6.56%. While this might seem like a small change, it's a welcome nudge in the right direction after a period of rising rates, and it means potentially a little more breathing room in your monthly budget if you're considering refinancing.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 6: 30-Year Refinance Rate Drops by 6 Basis Points

It’s been a bit of a roller coaster in the mortgage world lately, hasn’t it? After the Federal Reserve made some smart moves and cut interest rates a few times toward the end of last year, we’re seeing these lower refinance rates pop up. Honestly, it feels like ages since rates were this good – in fact, they’re at some of the lowest points we’ve seen in over a year. This has led to a noticeable jump in people wanting to refinance, even though many homeowners are still comfortably sitting on the lower rates they secured a while back.

From my perspective, seeing these rates dip, even by a little, is a positive sign for homeowners. It means that the work the Fed did to try and cool things down and make borrowing more accessible is starting to pay off for those looking to swap out their existing mortgages.

A Quick Look at Today's Refinance Rates

Let’s break down what’s happening with different types of refinance loans right now. It’s not all good news across the board, but the main rate people care about is going the right way.

Data based on Zillow's reporting as of January 6, 2026.

What Does This Mean for You?

These numbers paint a picture, and it’s important to understand how they might affect your own financial decisions.

• For those looking at the long haul (30-year fixed): That drop to 6.56% is definitely something to consider. While it’s not a massive plunge, it’s a step in the right direction. The stability at this rate might give you the confidence to lock it in now, especially with the uncertainty that can always creep into the market later in the year. It means your monthly payments could be a bit lower, or you could potentially pay down your loan faster over time.
• If you prefer shorter loan terms (15-year fixed): You’ll notice that rates have gone up a little here, to 5.66%. This makes those shorter loans a bit pricier than last week. However, it's important to remember that even with this slight increase, 15-year loans are still generally cheaper overall than their 30-year counterparts. It’s a trade-off between a higher monthly payment and paying off your mortgage much faster and saving on total interest.
• For those eyeing adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): The 5-year ARM rate holding steady at 7.16% doesn't offer much excitement. While ARMs can sometimes be a good option if you plan to move or refinance before the rate adjusts, the current elevated rate makes them a less attractive choice compared to the fixed options right now. The risk of rates jumping up later could be a worry for many.

Looking Ahead: A Mixed Bag for Early 2026

As I see it, the refinance market is giving off some conflicting signals right now. On one hand, we have long-term rates easing a bit, which is great news for borrowers seeking predictability. On the other, short-term loans are getting pricier, which might make the gap between them and longer loans feel smaller. And those ARMs? They’re just sitting there, high and unchanged, reminding us that variable rates can be a gamble in today’s economy.

The big economic players – think the Federal Reserve’s next moves, how inflation is behaving, and how many people are actively buying or selling homes – will all continue to play a huge role in what happens with mortgage rates. For now, though, there’s a sense of relative calm. This is a good time for homeowners to really dive into their own situation and see if refinancing makes sense for their personal financial goals.

What’s Driving the Refinance Boom (and What’s Holding It Back)?

It’s fascinating to see the activity in the mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that their Refinance Index has shot up by a massive 86% compared to this time last year. That surge was definitely kicked off by those rate cuts at the end of 2025, prompting a lot of people who took out loans when rates were at their peak in 2023 and 2024 to jump back into the refinancing game.

However, there’s a significant factor that’s keeping this boom from being even bigger: the “lock-in” effect. It’s estimated that about 70% of homeowners out there have mortgages with rates below 5%. For these folks, refinancing to a rate around 6.56% just doesn't make financial sense. They’d be paying more in interest!

Because of this, we're seeing a noticeable shift. Instead of a full refinance, many homeowners are turning to Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and other home equity loans. This allows them to tap into the significant equity they've built up in their homes without giving up those incredibly low primary mortgage rates they’re already enjoying. It’s a smart workaround for many.

Expert Predictions for 2026: What’s the Crystal Ball Saying?

When I look at what the experts are forecasting for 2026, it’s a mixed bag, which is pretty typical in the financial world.

• The Federal Reserve: After those three rate cuts in late 2025 (September, October, and December), they've signaled they’re likely to hit the pause button in early 2026. They’re only projecting one more cut for the rest of the year. This suggests a cautious approach, trying not to overstimulate the economy.
• Fannie Mae has a more optimistic outlook, predicting that rates will start the year around 6.2% and could even dip as low as 5.9% by the end of 2026. That would be a fantastic rate for many homeowners.
• The MBA sees things holding a bit steadier, forecasting rates to stay around 6.4% throughout 2026. They point to inflation as a stubborn factor that could keep rates from falling much further.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is even more optimistic, expecting an average rate of 6.0% for the year. If their prediction comes true, that could really unlock a lot more activity in the housing market.

It’s always wise for borrowers to keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. Why? Because mortgage rates tend to follow this yield more closely than they do the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rates. It’s a key indicator of where borrowing costs are headed.

So, while the small dip today might not seem huge, it’s part of a larger trend that’s making refinancing more accessible than it has been in a while for many. It’s worth exploring your options!