Nashville Housing Market: Statistics and Forecast 2025-2026

Thinking about buying or selling a home in Nashville? The current Nashville housing market shows a slight cooling compared to its peak frenzy, with home prices holding steady and inventory slowly increasing, but it's still a competitive environment. Looking ahead to 2025, we're anticipating a gradual recovery and a more balanced market, though predictions are always a bit of a guessing game!

Let's dive deep into what's happening right now and what experts are saying about the Nashville housing market in the coming year.

Nashville Housing Market Statistics in 2025

Housing Market Trends

It’s always helpful to look at the numbers to get a real picture of what's going on. Based on recent data from Realtor.com, here's a snapshot of the Nashville housing market as of September:

• Home Prices: In September, the median listing price for a home in Nashville was $605,000. While this was a slight dip from the month before, it's important to remember that home prices often see a seasonal drop in September. What's really interesting is that the price per square foot actually increased by 0.1% compared to August. This is a bit different from the national trend, where the price per square foot decreased by 0.8%. So, even with a small dip in the overall median price, Nashville's property values are showing a bit more resilience than the rest of the country.
• Housing Inventory (Supply): The number of homes available for sale in Nashville saw a small decrease of 0.2% from August, bringing the total to 3,174 homes. However, when we look at this compared to the same time last year, the inventory is actually 18.7% higher. This is a good sign for buyers, as more homes on the market mean more choices. Nationally, active inventory rose slightly by 0.2% from the previous month. It's still a tighter market here in Nashville compared to the national average when we look at the overall number of homes, but the year-over-year increase is definitely a step in the right direction.
• Time on Market: Homes in Nashville are currently taking an average of 69 days to sell. This is just one day longer than the month before, but it's a noticeable 10 days longer than last year. For comparison, the national average time on the market in September was 62 days. This slower pace of sales, coupled with more inventory, suggests that the market is starting to shift away from the super-heated seller's market we saw a couple of years ago. It's becoming a bit more of a balanced market, giving buyers a little more breathing room.
• Buyer's vs. Seller's Market: Right now, the Nashville housing market is leaning more towards a balanced market, though it can still feel like a seller's market in certain desirable neighborhoods or for highly attractive homes. The increase in inventory and the slightly longer time on market are indicators of this shift. Sellers might need to be a bit more patient and realistic with their pricing than they were previously. For buyers, this means there's a better chance of finding a home that fits their needs and budget, and potentially negotiating a bit.

Here’s a quick look at how Nashville’s recent trends stack up:

Metric	Nashville (September)	National (September)
Median Listing Price	$605,000	(Not provided for comparison)
Price/Sq Ft Change	+0.1%	-0.8%
Homes for Sale	3,174	1,100,407
Inventory Change (YoY)	+18.7%	(Not provided for comparison)
Average Days on Market	69 days	62 days

Source: Realtor.com

It’s clear that while Nashville is still a desirable place to live, the rapid price growth we saw has moderated. This doesn't mean prices are crashing, but rather they are finding a more sustainable pace.

Nashville Housing Market Forecast

Now, let's peer into the crystal ball for the Nashville housing market forecast. Predicting the future of real estate is never an exact science, but economists and housing experts provide valuable insights. Based on data from Zillow and projections from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), here's what we can expect.

Current Home Values and Sales Pace: According to Zillow, the average home value in the Nashville metropolitan area is currently around $451,356. This shows a slight decrease of 0.1% over the past year. Homes are currently going into contract (pending) in about 33 days. This is a bit quicker than the general market trend for listings (69 days), suggesting that homes priced and presented well are still moving efficiently.

Nashville MSA Housing Forecast:

Zillow's predictions offer a granular look at the expected changes in home values.

Timeframe	Expected Home Value Change (Nashville MSA)
October 2025	+0.2%
December 2025	+0.4%
September 2026	+2.1%

What this table tells me is that Zillow expects a period of very modest growth in home values for the Nashville area through late 2025 and into early 2026. The biggest jump is predicted by September 2026, indicating a gradual upward trend as we move further out.

Comparing Nashville to Other Tennessee Cities:

It’s always interesting to see how our local market compares to other parts of the state.

City	Oct 2025	Dec 2025	Sep 2026
Nashville, TN	0.2%	0.4%	2.1%
Memphis, TN	0%	0%	0.9%
Knoxville, TN	0.3%	0.8%	5%
Chattanooga, TN	0.1%	0.5%	2.6%
Clarksville, TN	0.2%	0.6%	2.9%
Kingsport, TN	0.2%	0.7%	3.6%
Johnson City, TN	0.1%	0.5%	3.5%
Jackson, TN	-0.1%	0.1%	1.5%

Source: Zillow

Looking at this, Nashville is projected for pretty stable growth, similar to cities like Clarksville. Knoxville and the Northeast Tennessee cities (Kingsport, Johnson City) are showing stronger growth projections in the longer term (by Sep 2026). Memphis and Jackson are expected to see slower growth. This suggests that while Nashville remains a strong market, other areas within Tennessee are also poised for appreciation.

National Housing Market Forecast:

Let’s zoom out and see how the Nashville housing market fits into the bigger picture of the U.S. housing market.

• Zillow's Outlook: Zillow anticipates that home value growth nationwide will remain flat for much of 2025, bottoming out around December/January, but then expected to recover and reach a peak of nearly 1.9% annual growth by August 2026. They also predict that home sales will end 2025 at around 4.07 million, which is a slight increase from 2024. Rent growth is expected to continue cooling.
• NAR's Optimistic View: Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is sharing a more optimistic outlook. He sees “brighter days” ahead. Here are his key predictions for the U.S. housing market:
  • Existing Home Sales: Expected to rise by 6% in 2025 and a further 11% in 2026. This indicates a significant pickup in activity.
  • New Home Sales: Projected to climb by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026. This growth is crucial for addressing the ongoing shortage of homes.
  • Median Home Prices: Forecasted to see modest increases, with a projected rise of 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. This is a much more sustainable pace than we've seen in recent years.
  • Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the latter half of 2025 and then dip to 6.1% in 2026. Yun calls mortgage rates a “magic bullet” because they significantly impact affordability and buyer demand.

So, Will Home Prices Drop in Nashville? Can it Crash?

Based on all the data and forecasts, a crash in the Nashville housing market is highly unlikely. The word “crash” implies a sudden, sharp decline in values. What we are seeing, and what is forecasted, is more of a stabilization and a return to more normal appreciation rates.

The factors that would typically lead to a crash, like a massive surge in foreclosures or a dramatic economic downturn, don't seem to be on the horizon. While prices might not skyrocket as they did in 2020-2022, they are expected to hold steady and gradually increase. The increased inventory, while making it a better market for buyers, isn't so large that it would flood the market and force prices down significantly.

Looking Further Ahead: 2026 End and Early 2027

Extrapolating from the current forecasts, we can anticipate a continued trend of moderate growth in the Nashville housing market through the end of 2026 and into early 2027.

• Home Prices: By the end of 2026, we could see home prices in Nashville continuing to appreciate at a rate closer to the national average forecast of around 2-4%, perhaps even touching the higher end of that range if mortgage rates continue to ease and inventory remains relatively balanced. We won't see the double-digit jumps of the recent past, but a steady, sustainable climb.
• Home Sales: With the projected decrease in mortgage rates and an increase in affordability, the number of home sales should continue to rise. Buyers who have been on the sidelines may feel more confident entering the market.
• Housing Inventory: Inventory levels are likely to remain a key factor. If new construction continues to keep pace with demand and fewer homeowners decide to move (due to the “lock-in effect” of current lower mortgage rates on their existing homes), the supply might not grow dramatically, keeping the market from becoming oversaturated.

My Take:

As someone who watches the Nashville housing market closely, I think the current trends and forecasts paint a picture of a maturing market. The days of bidding wars on every home are likely behind us for now. This shift creates opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers can be more strategic and less rushed, while sellers can still achieve good prices if their homes are well-presented and realistically priced. The interest rate environment will remain a huge influencer, so keeping an eye on those mortgage rate forecasts is crucial.

The Nashville housing market is still a vibrant and attractive area, and while it's not immune to broader economic trends, it appears poised for continued, stable growth rather than a dramatic downturn. If you're considering a move, now is a great time to get informed, connect with local experts, and prepare for a market that offers more balance than we've seen in a few years.