Norada Real Estate Investments

Will Housing Be Cheaper if the Market Crashes in 2025?

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The question of whether housing will become more affordable if the market crashes in 2025 is a complex one, with various factors influencing the potential outcome. A market crash can indeed lead to a decrease in housing prices, as seen historically, but the extent and duration of such a decrease depend on the underlying economic conditions, the reasons for the market downturn, and the response from policymakers.

Here’s a detailed analysis based on current trends and expert predictions.

Economic Context and Predictions

Current Housing Market Trends

  • Housing prices have been elevated due to limited supply and high demand, exacerbated by rising mortgage rates over the past few years. However, recent trends indicate that mortgage rates are beginning to decline, which may improve affordability for potential buyers.
  • Predictions for 2025 suggest that while home prices may continue to rise, the rate of increase is expected to slow down significantly. For instance, estimates indicate growth rates could be around 2% to 3.9% year over year by the end of 2025.

Impact of a Market Crash

  • Historically, a stock market crash can lead to decreased consumer confidence and spending, which can indirectly affect the housing market. A significant drop in the stock market (e.g., a 20% decline) often results in higher unemployment rates, which can reduce the number of potential homebuyers.
  • However, it’s important to note that a stock market crash does not automatically equate to a housing market crash. In some cases, investors may turn to real estate as a safer investment during stock market downturns, potentially keeping demand stable or even increasing it.

Key Factors Influencing Housing Prices in 2025

  • Mortgage Rates: As the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, mortgage rates are expected to fall further. This could stimulate demand for housing, even if prices are predicted to rise at a slower pace[4].
  • Supply and Demand Dynamics: The availability of homes for sale plays a critical role in determining prices. If more homeowners decide to sell due to falling mortgage rates, this could increase supply and potentially stabilize or lower prices. Conversely, if demand outstrips supply due to lower rates attracting more buyers, prices could continue to rise[3][4].
  • Economic Sentiment: The overall economic climate will influence buyer behavior. If a crash leads to widespread job losses and economic uncertainty, consumer confidence may plummet, leading to reduced demand for homes and potentially lower prices[1][2].

Factors That Could Influence Housing Affordability if the Market Crashes

Government Intervention

One of the key elements to consider is the role of government intervention. In past economic crises, government programs have been instrumental in stabilizing the housing market. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the federal government introduced measures such as the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which helped many homeowners avoid foreclosure and stay in their homes. If a market crash were to occur in 2024, the government's response would likely play a significant role in determining the extent to which housing prices are affected.

Demographic Trends

Another factor to consider is the demographic trends driving housing demand. The Millennial generation, which has been entering the housing market in large numbers, is expected to continue to drive demand for the next several years. This sustained demand could help cushion the impact of a market crash on housing prices.

Shift in Work and Lifestyle Patterns

Additionally, the shift towards remote work, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to changes in housing preferences and demand patterns. Many people are seeking larger homes with dedicated office spaces, often in suburban or rural areas rather than urban centers. This trend could influence the housing market's resilience in the face of a downturn, as the demand for certain types of properties may remain strong.

Investor Activity

Investor activity is another variable that could affect housing prices during a market crash. Investors who purchase properties to rent out or flip have been a significant force in the housing market. Their actions in response to a crash—whether they decide to sell off properties or buy up more in anticipation of a recovery—could have a significant impact on housing prices.

Economic Environment

Finally, the state of the broader economy and the job market will be crucial in determining housing affordability. High levels of employment and income growth can support housing demand and prices, even during economic downturns. Conversely, if a market crash leads to widespread job losses and reduced consumer confidence, the demand for housing could decrease, leading to lower prices.

Summary: While a market crash could theoretically make housing cheaper, current trends and expert analyses suggest that a significant crash is not expected in 2025. Experts predict a cooling down rather than a dramatic crash. Instead, the market may experience a rebalancing, with slower price growth or minor adjustments. Therefore, you should keep a close eye on economic indicators and market forecasts, as these can offer valuable insights into future trends and potential shifts in affordability.

Is the Housing Market Headed for a Crash Again?

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Is the housing market headed for a crash again? Many experts believe that, unlike the disastrous downturn of 2008, the current housing market is more resilient and less likely to crash significantly. While prices have risen dramatically and affordability issues persist, factors such as low inventory and strong demand indicate stability in the market for the foreseeable future.

Is the Housing Market Headed for a Crash Again?

Key Takeaways

  • Current Market Trends: Home prices remain high but may stabilize or increase slightly.
  • Demand vs. Supply: Low inventory continues to push demand upwards.
  • Economic Factors: Inflation and high mortgage rates create challenges but are not expected to lead to a crash.
  • Expert Opinions: Most believe a significant downturn is unlikely due to various market dynamics.

The State of the Housing Market in 2024

In navigating whether the housing market is headed for a crash again, it's essential to consider the current state of affairs. The market has witnessed a dramatic increase in home prices over the past few years. As of 2024, reports indicate that home values have risen approximately 5.4% year-over-year, per the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. Such growth, while impressive, raises eyebrows; many wonder if these prices are sustainable or if they are propped up by speculation and financial manipulation.

What’s Causing the Price Surge?

Several factors contribute to the increasing home prices:

  • Low Inventory: The number of homes available on the market remains lower than needed to meet demand. Homebuilders have struggled to keep pace following the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • High Demand: Despite elevated mortgage rates, many buyers are unwilling to wait, driven by the belief that not buying now could lead to even higher prices later. This has kept competition for homes fierce.
  • Record Low Mortgages: Homeowners who secured lower mortgage rates in the past are reluctant to sell and lose their favorable rates, thereby decreasing available inventory.

Comparative Analysis with Past Crashes

Unlike the catastrophic housing crash of 2008, which was fueled by subprime mortgages and rampant speculation, the current market does not appear to have the same vulnerabilities. According to a Forbes article from December 2023, the general consensus aligns with the view that a similar crash is unlikely due to more stringent lending practices and better overall financial conditions among homeowners (Forbes). Most homeowners now possess significant equity, contrasting sharply with the situation before the 2008 crisis.

However, discussions around housing market stability also surface. Some critics argue that the market is experiencing a bubble, stating that “the U.S. is in a massive housing bubble,” with prices artificially inflated. They suggest that political decisions and economic factors could lead to significant corrections down the line (Strong Towns).

Economic Challenges on the Horizon

While the consensus leans toward optimism, it is crucial to highlight the economic challenges ahead. High inflation rates continue to influence the economy, causing uncertainty among consumers and potential homebuyers. Additionally, mortgage rates have recently soared above 6%, creating a more challenging lending environment. Homebuyers now face increased monthly payments, further constraining affordability for many.

Impact of Interest Rates on the Market

The Federal Reserve's policies around interest rates can significantly impact housing demand. If rates remain high or continue to rise, it could suppress home sales and cool the market. However, forecasts suggest a potential decline in rates as inflation stabilizes, which could revitalize buyer interest (Bankrate). The overall feeling among experts is mixed yet controlled: housing will likely face challenges, but a crash akin to 2008 remains improbable.

The Take From Experts

Expert insights paint a comprehensive picture of the housing market's future. In a recent analysis, it was stated that the ongoing competition and multiple offers for homes will likely drive prices upward, contrary to fears of a downturn (Business Insider). This sentiment is echoed in multiple reports, including surveys from U.S. News, which forecast a continued demand for housing amidst increasing prices, stating there is “no imminent collapse” for the housing market in 2024.

It’s also worth noting the emotional side of home buying. Many families view homeownership as an essential part of their future, which drives commitment despite rising prices. This mindset can act as a stabilizer in the market, even amid economic turbulence.

Local vs. National Market Trends

While national trends give us an overall view, local markets present unique dynamics. Certain areas may experience corrections due to economic downturns, job losses, or an influx of new housing developments. This contrasting scenario highlights that, while the national outlook seems positive, some regions might still struggle. For instance, some analysts predict that specific markets may not enjoy the same level of stability due to local economic conditions and shifts in industry.

Conclusion to the Discussion

As we dive deeper into 2024, the question remains: is the housing market destined for a crash again? The evidence suggests that while there may be challenges, a crash similar to that of 2008 is unlikely. With continued demand, historic low inventory, and more resilient economic fundamentals, many experts remain hopeful that the housing market will continue to evolve without the tumultuous setbacks we've seen in the past.

As individuals and families contemplate home purchases amidst rising prices, it’s crucial to stay informed about market dynamics. Understanding the intricacies of supply and demand, interest rates, and local economic conditions can provide insight into making sound decisions in today’s housing market.

10 Most Vulnerable Housing Markets in 2024: Crash or Correction?

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Are you worried about the future of the U.S. housing market? You're not alone. With whispers of a potential crash echoing around, it's only natural to wonder which markets might be most vulnerable. This article takes a deep dive into the most vulnerable housing markets in 2024, examining the factors at play and analyzing whether a crash is imminent.

The latest data from ATTOM's Q2 2024 Special Housing Risk Report paints a telling picture. The report, which assesses counties based on factors like foreclosure activity, underwater mortgages, affordability, and unemployment rates, highlights some worrying trends. Let's break down what's happening.

California, New Jersey, and Illinois Housing Markets: A Concentration of Risk

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Most Vulnerable Housing Markets in 2024
  • 💵 Heavily Concentrated: The most vulnerable housing markets in 2024 are concentrated in California, New Jersey, and Illinois.
  • 🏠 High Living Costs: Why these states? It's a cocktail of factors. High living costs, driven in part by soaring property prices, have pushed affordability to the brink. Soaring property prices have pushed affordability to the brink, especially in major metro areas like New York City and Chicago.
  • 📈 Rising Interest Rates: Adding to the pressure are rising interest rates. As borrowing becomes more expensive, homeowners who locked in low rates during the pandemic boom might struggle to keep up with payments if their financial situations change.

 

Unveiling the Top 10 Most Vulnerable Housing Markets

ATTOM's Q2 2024 report identifies the top 10 most vulnerable U.S. housing markets. Let's delve into each one:

  1. Madera, CA: With a high percentage of properties underwater and a significant proportion of income needed to buy, Madera faces a challenging environment.
    • 71% of income needed to buy
    • 1% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 756 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 5% June 2024 unemployment rate
  2. San Joaquin, CA: Another Californian county, San Joaquin, grapples with high underwater mortgage rates and foreclosure filings.
    • 71% of income needed to buy
    • 7% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 864 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 4% June 2024 unemployment rate
  3. Butte, CA: Rounding out the top three is Butte, California, facing a trifecta of challenges: high affordability hurdles, a large share of underwater properties, and a concerning foreclosure activity.
    • 69% of income needed to buy
    • 8% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 969 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 9% June 2024 unemployment rate
  4. Henry, GA: Moving east, Henry County in Georgia presents a mixed picture. While affordability appears relatively better, a high percentage of underwater properties raises a red flag.
    • 54% of income needed to buy
    • 9% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 726 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 4% June 2024 unemployment rate
  5. Kaufman, TX: Located in Texas, Kaufman County stands out with a significant portion of income needed for homeownership, indicating a potential affordability crunch.
    • 46% of income needed to buy
    • 1% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 930 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 8% June 2024 unemployment rate
  6. Humboldt, CA: Back in California, Humboldt County experiences a concerning level of foreclosure activity, highlighting the pressure on some homeowners.
    • 71% of income needed to buy
    • 1% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 623 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 7% June 2024 unemployment rate
  7. Solano, CA: Solano County reflects the broader trend in California, with a high percentage of income required for housing, emphasizing affordability concerns.
    • 72% of income needed to buy
    • 0% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 735 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 7% June 2024 unemployment rate
  8. Passaic, NJ: Representing New Jersey, Passaic County contends with a combination of affordability issues and a notable share of underwater mortgages.
    • 73% of income needed to buy
    • 3% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 840 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 8% June 2024 unemployment rate
  9. Merced, CA: Merced County in California faces a significant affordability barrier, with a large percentage of income dedicated to housing expenses.
    • 74% of income needed to buy
    • 0% of properties underwater
    • 1 in every 977 properties with foreclosure filings
    • 4% June 2024 unemployment rate
  10. Shasta, CA: Completing the top 10, Shasta County grapples with a mix of affordability challenges and foreclosure activity, further underscoring California's vulnerability.
  • 72% of income needed to buy
  • 1% of properties underwater
  • 1 in every 658 properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4% June 2024 unemployment rate

Will These Housing Markets Crash?

The big question on everyone's mind: are these vulnerable markets headed for a crash? While it's impossible to predict the future with certainty, a few factors suggest that a full-blown crash might be unlikely, at least in the immediate term.

  • Strong Demand: Despite affordability challenges, demand for housing remains relatively strong in many areas. This is particularly true in markets with robust job markets and population growth.
  • Tight Inventory: Low inventory levels continue to prop up prices in many regions. Until supply significantly outpaces demand, a drastic price correction is less probable.
  • Lessons Learned: The 2008 housing crisis taught both lenders and borrowers valuable lessons. Lending practices are stricter now, and borrowers are generally more cautious.

However, it's important to acknowledge that these markets are walking a tightrope. Continued interest rate hikes, a significant economic downturn, or a sudden surge in unemployment could tip the scales and lead to more severe corrections.

Factors to Watch in the Coming Months

  • Interest Rate Trajectory: The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates will significantly impact the affordability and attractiveness of mortgages.
  • Inflation: Persistent inflation could continue to erode purchasing power and put pressure on household budgets.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy generally supports a healthy housing market. Conversely, a recession or significant slowdown could negatively impact demand and prices.

Navigating Uncertainty: Advice for Homebuyers and Sellers

  • Homebuyers: Proceed with caution. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, factor in potential interest rate increases, and don't overextend your budget. Focus on affordability and long-term value.
  • Home Sellers: Be realistic about pricing. While the market might not be as hot as it once was, a well-maintained and strategically priced home can still attract buyers.

The Bottom Line

While the most vulnerable housing markets in 2024 face real challenges, a catastrophic crash is not a foregone conclusion. However, vigilance and careful analysis are crucial. Keep a close eye on economic indicators, interest rates, and local market conditions to make informed decisions about your real estate investments.

Also Read:

Florida Housing Markets Face Steep Risk: CoreLogic Prediction

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The housing markets in Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL, and two other Florida areas are at very high risk for price crashes in the coming year. As these markets face critical financial turbulence, it's essential for current homeowners, prospective buyers, and investors to navigate the landscape with caution.

Florida Housing Markets at Very High Risk for Price Crash

Key Takeaways

  • High Risk of Price Decline: Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL, along with Gainesville, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, are noted by CoreLogic as having a 70%-plus probability of experiencing a sharp decline in home prices over the next 12 months.
  • Market Risk Indicator: The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) is a valuable resource that assesses the health of housing markets, highlighting areas with potential price corrections.
  • Expectations of Rate Cuts May Fall Short: Although the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates, these adjustments might not be sufficient to stimulate growth in Florida’s cooling housing market.
  • National Trends Contrast with Local Dangers: Despite the national average of home prices increasing 4.7% year-over-year, Florida markets are becoming outliers, showing signs of distress.

CoreLogic's MRI Identifies At-Risk Florida Markets

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) has placed significant emphasis on the state of Florida’s housing markets, singling out areas like Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne and Gainesville as particularly vulnerable Source: CoreLogic.

Why Are These Markets Vulnerable?

To comprehend why these markets are pegged as high risk, it’s crucial to explore the underlying factors influencing these predictions.

Factors Contributing to High Risk in Florida Markets

1. High Mortgage Rates Compressing Affordability

High mortgage rates have become a defining feature of the current housing market, particularly affecting buyers in Florida. As interest rates soar, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive, shrinking the pool of qualified homebuyers. This decline in affordability is especially poignant in fast-growing areas like Palm Bay and North Port, which saw significant price increases over recent years.

The Real Cost of Borrowing

Back in the pandemic years, aggressive lending and low-rate environments led to soaring prices in Florida. Now that the market has shifted, many potential buyers find themselves priced out. In Palm Bay, for example, the sharp rise in interest rates means that monthly payments for new mortgages are more stressful, leading to fewer people entering the market. This can ultimately result in price declines due to a lack of demand.

2. Consumer Sentiment in Flux

Consumer sentiment impacts real estate as much as hard data. Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, highlights that diminished confidence in the economy and housing market can trigger a wait-and-see strategy among potential buyers. As consumers anticipate price drops, they may be less inclined to commit to purchases.

Fear of Missing Out vs. Market Realities

In a state like Florida, where owning a home is often seen as a key milestone, the fear of missing out can clash with stark market realities. When people perceive potential declines, however, they may choose to delay homebuying decisions. This leads to pent-up demand, but when sentiment swings too far in the direction of caution, it creates downward pressure on home prices.

3. Economic Backdrop and Job Market Pressures

In Florida, the traditional economic engines—such as tourism and agriculture—play a significant role in the real estate market. However, economic uncertainties or slowdowns in key sectors can disrupt consumer confidence and lead to decreased housing demand.

Recent shifts in the job market, influenced by global economic trends, could spell trouble for Florida’s housing markets. If layoffs or reduced hiring become prominent in sectors that sustain Florida’s economy, it will impact housing demand substantially, leading to further price adjustments.

4. Accumulating Inventory

Another critical aspect to monitor is the increasing inventory of homes on the market in Florida. In fast-paced housing markets, inventory levels are a telltale sign of market health. Economic shifts and increasing mortgage rates have led many sellers to list their properties, resulting in overcrowded listings.

Areas like North Port and Sarasota have experienced such surges in inventory, causing sellers to become more competitive on pricing in order to attract buyers. This trend can create a seller's market flipping into a buyer’s market, subsequently pushing home values down.

National Trends and Local Concerns

While the nationwide outlook presents a modest year-over-year increase of 4.7% in home prices as of June 2024, many Florida markets are starting to diverge dramatically from these trends.

Comparative Analysis with Other States

Some areas in the Midwest and Northeast have shown robust growth and steady demand. In contrast, places like Palm Bay and Gainesville are wrestling with different realities. While other markets are thriving, Florida’s economic peculiarities render its housing market vulnerable—especially with factors unique to the state such as high insurance costs and dependency on a few key industries.

What Can You Expect?

With the current environment presenting challenges, what should stakeholders in Florida's housing markets be considering?

For Homeowners

If you own a home in one of the at-risk markets, expect that you may need to adjust your expectations regarding your home’s value. Understanding the dynamics of the current market—especially the potential for price declines—will be crucial if you decide to sell. Working with a knowledgeable realtor who understands local market conditions will be beneficial.

For Prospective Buyers

Prospective homebuyers might find opportunities during this volatile market phase. Even though immediate price declines can be concerning, purchasing at a lower price may allow for long-term gains, especially if you are prepared to hold your investment through potential rough patches.

As you consider your options, make sure to secure financing and investigate grants or programs tailored to first-time homebuyers, especially in states that now face a precarious housing situation.

For Investors

For investors, Florida presents both risk and opportunity. A careful analysis of local dynamics will be essential when considering properties. Investors should focus on identifying distressed properties or markets that are likely to recover more quickly. Buying low and holding through cycles can be advantageous, but be sure to assess the local economy’s fundamentals before making any decisions.

Conclusion

The latest CoreLogic report brings to light the high-risk status of several Florida housing markets, highlighting a pivotal moment for anyone involved in real estate across the state.

By focusing on the local factors underlying these shifts in market dynamics, individuals can better position themselves to either capitalise on opportunities or safeguard their investments against potential downturns.

In a landscape where “location, location, location” still reigns supreme, Florida’s unique housing challenges illustrate the importance of localized knowledge and proactive planning.

As the market evolves, buyers, sellers, and investors alike must pay close attention to regional economic signals and adjust their strategies to navigate the landscape effectively.

Also Read:

2024 Housing Market Crash: Is History Repeating Itself?

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The specter of a housing market crash in 2024 hangs heavy in the air, shrouding the industry in a cloak of uncertainty. Mortgage interest rates hovering near 8% have become a cause for alarm, echoing concerns not heard since the economic turmoil of the 1980s. Financial giants like Wells Fargo are sounding the alarm, drawing chilling comparisons to that era's housing market collapse.

These warnings serve as a stark reminder of the potential dangers lurking beneath the surface of the current market. As anxieties escalate, both potential homebuyers and seasoned investors alike are urged to tread cautiously and keep a watchful eye on the market's unpredictable gyrations. Navigating this uncertain landscape requires a keen understanding of economic forces and a dose of healthy skepticism towards the market's current buoyancy.

A Blast from the Past: The 1980s and High-Interest Rates

Those who lived through the early 1980s recall the devastating impact of soaring interest rates on the U.S. economy and the real estate market. With a series of interest rate hikes in the early part of this year, questions arise: Is a housing market crash and a recession on the horizon? Experts suggest that it's more than just a possibility.

The Wake-Up Call to the Federal Reserve

In a significant development, three influential organizations, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR), and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), jointly penned a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Their message highlighted a concerning fact – mortgage interest rates have surged to a 23-year high, dragging down application activity to levels last witnessed in 1996.

The Federal Reserve's aggressive stance on interest rate hikes has raised concerns that a housing market recession akin to the 1980s could be in the making. The central bank has indicated that it will maintain elevated borrowing costs well into 2024 to combat inflation. However, this move is expected to lead to declines in construction and overall housing market activity.

Wells Fargo's economists, Charlie Dougherty and Patrick Barley, expressed their apprehensions in a recent research note. They noted that, “After generally improving in the first half of 2023, the residential sector now appears to be contracting alongside the recent move higher in mortgage rates.”

Impact on Demand and Supply

The rise in mortgage rates could gradually ease once the Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policy. However, financing costs are likely to remain elevated compared to recent norms. This “higher for longer” interest rate environment is expected to not only affect demand but also constrain supply. New construction may dwindle, and prospective sellers may be discouraged from listing their homes for sale due to rising mortgage rates.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has surged from under 4% to nearly 8% since the Federal Reserve initiated its tightening measures in March 2022, according to data from Freddie Mac.

Higher borrowing costs have led to a decline in the construction of new houses in the United States. This has exacerbated the shortage of available homes, incentivizing existing homeowners to hold onto their properties to maintain historically low-interest rates they secured earlier. Data from Redfin indicates that only 1% of Americans sold their houses in the first half of 2023.

Comparing Past and Present: The 1980s and Now

In the 1980s, the Federal Reserve waged a fierce battle against inflation, driving 30-year mortgage rates as high as 19%. The desperate pleas from homebuilders, symbolized by a memorable letter to the Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, highlighted the dire consequences of high-interest rates on the housing sector.

Wells Fargo's economists have drawn a striking parallel between that era and the recent actions of housing industry participants. In a letter to the Fed's board of governors, the National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, and National Association of Homebuilders implored Chair Jerome Powell to reconsider the central bank's ongoing rate-hiking campaign.

Dougherty and Barley noted, “The plea for assistance from housing industry participants, both in the early 1980s and more recently, illustrates the severe impact higher interest rates can have on the residential sector.

Signs of a Housing Market Relapse

As the Federal Reserve maintains its restrictive policy stance and mortgage rates breach the 7% mark, various facets of housing activity have exhibited signs of regression. Home sales, mortgage applications, and indices tracking homebuilder confidence have all experienced declines in recent months.

What Actions Should Home Buyers Take Now?

In these uncertain times, prospective home buyers must be vigilant and well-informed. It's crucial to consider the following steps:

1. Monitor Mortgage Rates Closely

Stay updated on mortgage interest rates as they play a pivotal role in determining the affordability of your potential home purchase.

2. Consult Financial Advisors

Seek advice from financial experts who can guide you through the intricacies of the current market conditions.

3. Be Prepared for Market Fluctuations

Prepare yourself for possible fluctuations in the housing market and have a well-thought-out strategy for different scenarios.

The warning from Wells Fargo regarding a potential 1980s-style housing market crash is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of the real estate sector to rising interest rates. Home buyers and investors should remain cautious and stay informed as they navigate through these challenging times.

44% of Americans Think Housing Market Will Crash in 2024

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The current sentiments and concerns surrounding the housing market crash in the United States have been brought to light by a recent survey conducted by LendingTree. The findings indicate a significant level of apprehension among Americans, with a considerable percentage anticipating a potential housing market crash in the next year.

Americans Think Housing Market Will Crash in 2024

A Pessimistic Perspective:

44% of Americans Fear Imminent Housing Market Crash

Recent findings from a LendingTree survey of over 2,000 U.S. consumers paint a grim picture of the housing market's future. An alarming 44% of Americans believe that the housing market is at risk of crashing in the next year. What's even more surprising is that 35% of Americans actually hope for a market crash, with some nonhomeowners viewing it as their only chance to afford a home.

Key Findings:

  • 44% of Americans anticipate a housing market crash, with another 31% uncertain about the future.
  • 36% of homeowners and 35% of Americans overall express a desire for the market to crash, driven by various motivations such as lowering property taxes and believing it could lead to future stability.
  • Nearly a third of nonhomeowners (32%) see a market crash as their only pathway to homeownership, a sentiment particularly pronounced among Gen Zers (39%) and millennials (38%).
  • Concerns about mortgage interest rates loom large, with 53% of Americans worrying about them remaining high. Additionally, 79% expect rates to rise for at least another year, and 27% believe mortgage rates will soar to 8.00% or higher in the next year.
  • Homeownership challenges persist, with 50% of homeowners feeling stuck due to their current low mortgage rates. Furthermore, 75% of Americans are unsure if they'll ever see rates as low as in 2020 and 2021, and 11% of homeowners doubt their ability to buy a home again.

The Divergence of Concerns:

Whether one owns or rents, the issue of home prices and values dominates thoughts, albeit for different reasons. Nonhomeowners are troubled by high home prices (48%), while homeowners are anxious about decreasing home values (38%). Despite these worries, a majority (62%) of Americans believe that home prices will increase in the next year, with two-thirds (66%) expecting a rise of 5% or more.

The Intersection of Anxiety and Aspiration:

Americans' Belief in an Impending Housing Crash

As of October 2023, the housing market has been tumultuous, marked by 30-year mortgage rates reaching nearly 8.00%—the highest since November 2000. This has significantly influenced public opinion, with a substantial 44% of Americans foreseeing a housing market crash in the next year. Millennials, in particular, express the highest concern, with 52% anticipating a crash. Other age groups, such as Gen Zers (48%), Gen Xers (42%), and Baby Boomers (30%), also share varying degrees of apprehension.

Hope Amidst Uncertainty:

While the majority harbors concerns, there is a notable segment (36%) of homeowners who actually wish for a market crash. Motivations behind this desire include a desire to lower property taxes and a belief that a crash could bring about future stability. Surprisingly, 35% of Americans overall share this sentiment, especially prevalent among Gen Zers (53%), millennials (46%), and those with children under 18 (46%). However, baby boomers (18%) and those with children over 18 (22%) are less inclined towards this perspective.

The Economist's Caution:

LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel cautions against the optimism associated with a housing market crash. While acknowledging the current challenges of high home prices and mortgage rates, Channel points out the potential negative repercussions of a market crash on the broader economy. Drawing parallels to the 2008 housing crisis, he highlights that a crash might not make homeownership more accessible; instead, it could lead to tightened lending standards and widespread job losses.

“It's not impossible for home prices to fall and make a given housing market more affordable,” Channel notes. “It's also not necessarily impossible for the housing market to outright crash next year while the rest of the economy remains relatively okay (though it's very unlikely). But if you're hoping that the housing market will crash and make it easier for you to buy a house, you'll probably be disappointed.

Despite the uncertainties, Channel provides a glimmer of hope for potential homebuyers, emphasizing the importance of considering historical data that indicates the slim likelihood of a housing crash in the next few years. He concludes by underscoring that historical trends show that when the market crashes, it tends to hurt more people than it helps.

The Dilemma of Aspiring Homeowners:

While the specter of a housing market crash looms, for some nonhomeowners, it represents a paradoxical glimmer of hope. Despite the potential consequences, 32% of nonhomeowners believe that a market downturn is their only viable path to homeownership. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among the younger demographic, with 39% of Gen Zers and 38% of millennials without homes expressing this view. Interestingly, it extends beyond age, encompassing those earning $50,000 to $79,999 (41%) and those with children younger than 18 (39%) as the most likely to share this perspective.

Mortgage Rates: A Pervasive Concern

The pervasive concern surrounding mortgage interest rates is palpable, affecting both homeowners and nonhomeowners alike. As of the week of Nov. 9, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 7.50%, contributing to the unease. 53% of Americans express apprehension that these rates will remain high, reflecting a widespread worry that has varying degrees of intensity across different demographics.

Demographic Dynamics of Concern:

  • Those with children younger than 18 (61%), individuals earning $75,000 to $99,999 (60%), and millennials (59%) emerge as the groups most troubled by the prospect of persistently high interest rates.
  • Women (56%) demonstrate a higher level of concern compared to men (49%) when it comes to the impact of interest rates on the housing market.

Projections and Expectations:

Looking into the future, 79% of respondents anticipate rates to rise for at least another year, with 53% of this group believing that rates will rise for over a year or longer. Among these expectations, 27% of Americans foresee mortgage rates reaching 8.00% or higher a year from now. Additionally:

  • 19% believe rates will be between 5.00% and 5.99%
  • 15% anticipate rates between 6.00% and 6.99%
  • 13% expect rates between 7.00% and 7.99%

Notably, Gen Zers are the most optimistic age group, with 21% thinking rates will be between 5.00% and 5.99%. In contrast, 21% of baby boomers anticipate rates between 7.00% and 7.99%.

The Economist's Optimistic Outlook:

Despite the prevailing concerns, LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel provides a glimmer of optimism regarding future mortgage rates. He points out that while rates have risen significantly since the start of 2022, historical trends suggest that this trend may not necessarily continue into 2024. Factors such as cooling inflation and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 could contribute to a decline in rates. Channel cautiously predicts that rates might end up closer to 6.00% or 7.00% rather than the feared 8.00% or higher.

However, Channel underscores the unpredictability of mortgage rates, acknowledging that various factors, such as a resurgence of inflation or elevated bond yields, could keep rates high. In conclusion, he emphasizes that while rates are in constant flux, there are indications that they might start to decrease, albeit gradually, over the next year.

Expert Tips for Navigating the Uncertain Housing Market:

Preparing for Market Changes:

As the housing market remains dynamic and unpredictable, expert advice becomes invaluable for individuals contemplating buying or selling in the upcoming year. Jacob Channel provides insightful tips to help individuals navigate potential market fluctuations:

1. Don't Rely on a Crash as a Savior:

Channel cautions against banking on a market crash as a solution to high prices. While acknowledging the challenges of the current housing market, he emphasizes that waiting for a crash is not a reliable strategy. According to Channel, the housing market is unlikely to outright crash next year. Instead, he anticipates that prices may adjust in certain regions, and interest rates might also experience fluctuations. To overcome affordability challenges, he advises prospective buyers to focus on practical steps like saving and strengthening finances rather than relying on unpredictable market shifts.

2. Plan Wisely, But Seize Present Opportunities:

Planning is crucial, but not at the expense of the present. Channel suggests that giving oneself ample time to save money, improve credit scores, and pay down debts can facilitate the mortgage approval process. However, he warns against becoming overly fixated on future possibilities, as there might never be an “ideal” time to buy. Channel encourages individuals in a favorable position to buy now, reminding them that great opportunities may be missed if paralyzed by concerns about an uncertain future.

3. Stay Informed About Market Dynamics:

Keeping abreast of market changes is crucial, according to Channel. The housing market is in constant flux, and conditions can vary significantly from one location to another. While not advocating obsessive monitoring, Channel suggests having a general awareness of current mortgage rates and home prices in your area. Recognizing that the market's appearance today may differ tomorrow, staying informed allows individuals to make well-informed decisions, whether buying or selling a house.

This information is based on a survey of over 2,000 U.S. consumers conducted by LendingTree, a leading online lending marketplace. Predicting market trends, including the possibility of a housing market crash, involves uncertainties. Therefore, it is recommended to supplement these insights with additional research and expert opinions for a comprehensive understanding of the real estate landscape in the United States for 2024 and beyond.

Where Are Housing Prices Falling 2022?

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Fortune reached out Moody's Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. The financial intelligence business predicted home price changes in 414 markets between 2022 and 2024. Moody's Analytics expects that 210 of the nation's 414 major housing markets will see home prices falling in the next two years and 204 will see home prices rise. 183 of the 413 biggest U.S. home markets are “overvalued” by more than 25%. Boise, Idaho, is 71.7% overvalued, and Flagstaff, Arizona, is 60.6%.

Redfin revealed its “risk score” on Friday, which identifies the home markets that are most vulnerable to a “housing slump.” The greater a market's “risk score,” the more likely it is that house prices will fall year over year.  Redfin examined 98 regional housing markets and evaluated indicators such as home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Among the 98 markets measured by Redfin, Riverside had the highest likelihood of seeing a “housing downturn.”

It was followed by Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Bakersfield, Phoenix, Tampa, and Tucson. Popular migration destinations where home prices soared during the pandemic, such as Boise, Phoenix, and Tampa, are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn amplified and year-over-year home prices decline if the economy enters a recession, a scenario that some economists believe is likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble.

<<<Also Read: Will the Housing Market Crash? >>>

Homeowners in those markets who are considering selling should market their properties as soon as possible to avoid price drops. Rust Belt cities like Cleveland and Buffalo, which are still inexpensive, are the most resilient to a housing market crash. The U.S. housing market slowed significantly in the spring due to rising mortgage rates. Redfin studied which metros are most vulnerable to home-price reductions if the country enters a recession and which are most immune to an economic slump.

Recession-proof northern metros, including Cleveland and Buffalo, NY, are relatively inexpensive. Prospective homebuyers in these places can proceed with confidence. Redfin's examination of 98 U.S. metros with relevant data utilizes home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Each metro is given an overall risk score relative to the others. 100 indicates the highest possibility of a housing market slump, including home-price decreases, while 0 indicates the lowest.

“Recession fears are escalating, mostly because the Fed has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation and cool consumer demand. Higher interest rates led to surging mortgage rates, which have already cooled down the housing market,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “If the U.S. does enter a recession, we’re unlikely to see a housing-market crash like in the Great Recession because the factors affecting the economy are different: Most homeowners have a fair amount of home equity and not much debt and unemployment is low.”

Housing Markets at Risk of Falling Home Prices

If the U.S. enters a recession, Riverside's home market will chill the most. It has the highest danger score of any major U.S. city, 84. It's more likely than other metros to see prices drop year over year during a recession or economic slowdown, according to housing and economic statistics. Riverside, which includes San Bernardino, Ontario, and Palm Springs, has variable house values and was a favorite location during the epidemic for both permanent movers and second-home buyers.

Riverside is followed by Boise (76.9), Cape Coral, FL (76.7), North Port, FL (75), and Las Vegas (74.2).

Sacramento, CA (73.1), Bakersfield, CA (72.2), Phoenix (72), Tampa, FL (70.7), and Tucson, AZ (70.1) round out the top 10.

Many of these housing markets, like Riverside, are popular migration destinations or have quickly growing property prices, both of which increase their likelihood of a housing slump. Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Phoenix were among the 20 fastest-cooling areas in May when mortgage rates reached 5.5%. As the economy continues to decline, prices may fall in many of these metros. Six of the 10 areas most at risk of downturns are among the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving from one metro to another.

Maricopa County (Phoenix) and Riverside County gained more residents from other parts of the U.S. than anywhere else in 2021, according to the U.S. Census. The most vulnerable metros have likewise seen an outsized price rise. North Port has the nation's fastest-growing house values, up 30.5 percent year over year in May, followed by Tampa (28.1 percent) and Las Vegas (26.8 percent ). Overall, nine of the ten most vulnerable locations had faster-growing house values than the national median (the exception is Sacramento, however, home prices there rose more than 40% throughout the pandemic, reaching $610,000 in May 2022).

Several of those metros went from inexpensive to unaffordable during the epidemic, owing in part to the migration of individuals from other locations. Among them is Boise, where the typical home price increased from $330,000 to $550,000 between May 2020 and May 2022, and Phoenix, where it increased from $300,000 to $485,000.

“Boise’s market is already turning around, as a lot of the people who moved to Idaho during the pandemic are either moving back to their hometowns or cashing in and moving to more affordable places. The housing market was hot during the pandemic, largely because of out-of-town buyers,” said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton.

Three at-risk metros are in California and three in Florida. San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco experienced relatively moderate price increases throughout the epidemic, its people tend to have high salaries and considerable home equity, and their housing markets started falling fast in the first half of 2022, mainly owing to collapsing tech stocks. Not all homes in these metros will lose value. Large single-family houses in spread-out areas are recession-proof.

Housing Markets in Which Prices Are Unlikely to Fall

Relatively affordable Rust Belt metros are most resilient in the face of a recession. In case of a recession, Akron, Ohio has the lowest risk of experiencing a housing decline. It has the lowest total risk score of any major US city at 29.6. Low home-price volatility, a low debt-to-income ratio, a small number of second houses, and the fact that properties in Akron are unlikely to be flipped are some of the characteristics that make the city relatively stable.

With an overall risk score of 30.4, Akron is followed by Philadelphia, Montgomery County, PA (31.4), El Paso, TX (32.2), and Cleveland (32.4). The top ten include Cincinnati (32.6), Boston (32.6), Buffalo, NY (33.1), Kansas City, MO (33.4), and Rochester, NY (34.4). Almost all of those metros are inexpensive and have relatively slow-increasing prices, both of which would benefit their housing markets in the event of a recession.

Almost all of the most resilient metros are located in the northern United States, either in the Rust Belt or on the East Coast. Three of them are in Ohio, two in New York, and two in Pennsylvania. In nine of the ten most resilient metros, prices climbed at a slower rate than the national average (El Paso is the exception).

Seven of the 10 metros least in danger of a housing downturn had a median sale price below $300,000 in May, and nine of them were below the $431,000 national median. Affordability benefits property markets in a recession because more people can buy houses, and such locations may attract out-of-town buyers. Boston is pricey, although property prices climbed modestly throughout the epidemic. It's busy and lost residents as remote work became prevalent.

U.S. Metros Most and Least Susceptible to a Housing Downturn in the Next Recession

Ranked by highest to the lowest chance of a housing downturn. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score for each metro, relative to the other metros in this analysis. The highest possible score is 100 and the lowest possible score is 0. The indicators are as follows: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, the year-over-year change in domestic migration, the share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply. Each factor is weighted equally.

U.S. Metro Area

 Overall Score Average Home-Loan-to-Value Ratio, 2021 Percent of Homes Flipped in 2021 Rank: How Quickly Housing Market Cooled in First Half of 2022 Net Domestic Migration in 2021, YoY Share of Second Homes, 2021 Price Growth in 2021, YoY
Riverside, CA 84 83% 4.50% 15 19,204 7.70% 21.00%
Boise, ID 76.9 6 6,782 6.00% 30.90%
Cape Coral, FL 76.7 81% 2.90% 11 7,345 23.40% 23.60%
North Port, FL 75 79% 4.40% 18 8,283 20.20% 23.30%
Las Vegas, NV 74.2 84% 8.30% 12 -15,143 7.60% 18.60%
Sacramento, CA 73.1 81% 5.40% 2 4,157 4.30% 19.30%
Bakersfield, CA 72.2 87% 3.80% 21 6,111 2.50% 17.30%
Phoenix, AZ 72 82% 10.30% 17 -15,530 7.20% 25.40%
Tampa, FL 70.7 85% 7.40% 22 524 8.10% 19.60%
Tucson, AZ 70.1 84% 7.70% 54 -2,677 7.10% 21.50%
San Diego, CA 69.8 81% 5.30% 8 -8,189 3.70% 17.50%
Jacksonville, FL 69.3 85% 7.20% 36 4,136 6.20% 16.60%
Stockton, CA 68.2 84% 4.70% 5 3,578 1.00% 19.30%
Knoxville, TN 67 86% 4.60% 13 4,527 5.20% 18.30%
Orlando, FL 63.8 85% 6.40% 31 -6,536 8.70% 16.70%
Charleston, SC 63.4 85% 3.80% 67 -2,921 7.60% 15.40%
West Palm Beach, FL 63.3 80% 3.10% 30 972 12.00% 17.40%
Fresno, CA 60.6 85% 4.70% 37 2,719 2.90% 17.90%
Raleigh, NC 60.4 83% 8.90% 42 3,430 2.60% 17.50%
Oxnard, CA 59.8 79% 2.50% 28 323 3.30% 16.70%
Salt Lake City, UT 57.7 -3,020 2.00% 22.80%
Columbia, SC 56.9 90% 4.40% 2,296 3.20%
Providence, RI 56.6 85% 2.70% 44 3,664 3.90% 15.40%
Atlanta, GA 56.4 86% 9.90% 47 -4,229 2.20% 19.20%
Miami, FL 56.3 82% 2.90% 53 -5,120 5.90% 18.60%
Charlotte, NC 56.1 85% 10.10% -6,444 2.70% 16.50%
Virginia Beach, VA 55.8 92% 3.20% 80 864 3.40% 8.30%
Tacoma, WA 55.5 9 -3,571 1.70% 19.80%
Detroit, MI 54.8 87% 5.20% 70 -2,062 1.00% 15.40%
Los Angeles, CA 54.8 79% 4.10% 46 -69,329 1.90% 17.30%
Austin, TX 54.6 16 -8,609 3.90% 31.60%
Portland, OR 54.3 82% 3.70% 14 -17,716 2.30% 15.40%
Anaheim, CA 53.9 76% 4.50% 20 -6,644 3.80% 16.00%
Denver, CO 53.8 82% 6.90% 7 -18,063 2.40% 16.70%
Colorado Springs, CO 53.7 87% 5.00% 693 2.50%
Baton Rouge, LA 52.4 89% 3.00% 2,287 2.40% 9.80%
Greenville, SC 52.1 85% 3.50% 32 1,771 4.70% 14.00%
Winston-Salem, NC 51.9 87% 5.10% 2.70% 13.70%
Grand Rapids, MI 51.7 86% 3.60% 29 1,028 2.40% 15.20%
Greensboro, NC 51.7 87% 6.70% 38 -181 2.10% 11.80%
Warren, MI 50.5 86% 2.90% 35 6,180 1.60% 11.40%
Tulsa, OK 50.1 88% 3.40% 45 2,325 2.10% 12.50%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 49.9 82% 3.00% 72 -5,121 7.50% 13.30%
Fort Worth, TX 49.6 50 1,978 1.70% 18.30%
Nashville, TN 49.3 84% 8.30% 48 -6,093 3.40% 17.00%
Allentown, PA 48.6 87% 2.20% 62 3,722 3.40% 14.20%
Camden, NJ 47.9 88% 3.00% 75 4,300 0.50% 17.90%
Houston, TX 47.7 24 -334 2.90% 15.50%
Seattle, WA 47.6 79% 1.90% 4 -37,365 1.80% 17.20%
Nassau County, NY 47.4 80% 3.60% 58 12,296 4.70% 15.20%
Albuquerque, NM 46.8 -1,714 2.80%
New Orleans, LA 46.6 88% 2.90% 23 -3,930 3.40% 10.70%
San Antonio, TX 46.6 40 -138 2.90% 15.10%
San Jose, CA 46.4 74% 2.50% 1 -22,661 0.80% 13.60%
San Francisco, CA 46.3 72% 1.90% 10 -55,918 2.40% 4.80%
Oakland, CA 45.8 78% 2.60% 3 -23,280 1.00% 16.30%
Dallas, TX 45.4 40 -5,685 1.70% 17.90%
Richmond, VA 45.4 87% 3.70% 59 1,995 1.40% 12.30%
Oklahoma City, OK 45.3 88% 5.10% 52 476 1.70% 10.60%
Washington, D.C. 44.2 87% 2.50% 28 -35,800 1.50% 10.10%
New Haven, CT 44.1 87% 2.00% 82 4,492 1.90% 15.80%
Birmingham, AL 43.4 88% 5.90% 68 95 1.40% 8.40%
Little Rock, AR 43.1 89% 4.90% 43 472 1.80% 10.70%
Frederick, MD 42.9 84% 2.00% 25 -58 0.90% 11.70%
Memphis, TN 42.7 87% 7.50% 33 -535 1.20% 13.30%
Honolulu, HI 42.6 79% 0.50% 19 6.20% 7.80%
St. Louis, MO 42.2 86% 3.40% -2,214 1.30% 10.10%
Baltimore, MD 41.9 86% 2.60% 74 6,085 1.40% 8.50%
Bridgeport, CT 41.7 81% 1.10% 88 8,871 2.00% 11.60%
Worcester, MA 40.8 86% 1.80% 57 3,354 1.20% 16.10%
Indianapolis, IN 39.9 41 902 1.40% 13.50%
Newark, NJ 39.3 84% 1.90% 73 7,348 2.80% 13.20%
Wichita, KS 39.3 -1,813 1.10% 12.50%
Lake County, IL 38.6 85% 1.80% 87 2,746 1.70% 14.40%
Louisville, KY 38.6 87% 4.80% 34 -378 1.20% 9.70%
Wilmington, DE 37.8 88% 2.80% 64 738 1.80% 11.30%
Hartford, CT 36.8 86% 1.70% 80 7,182 1.80% 12.00%
Minneapolis, MN 36.8 85% 3.70% 50 -10,673 1.30% 11.10%
Gary, IN 36.7 939 1.20% 9.70%
Pittsburgh, PA 36.4 87% 1.60% 76 -337 1.50% 12.70%
Elgin, IL 35.8 84% 1.10% 60 3,590 0.60% 11.50%
New York, NY 35.4 78% 1.70% 48 -2,01,570 2.80% 12.30%
Syracuse, NY 35.2 86% 2.20% 1,510 3.30% 11.00%
Milwaukee, WI 35.1 86% 3.30% 79 -2,993 1.40% 7.20%
Omaha, NE 35.1 87% 4.90% 56 -237 1.30% 9.70%
Albany, NY 34.5 87% 2.00% 90 3,521 2.80% 13.70%
Chicago, IL 34.4 86% 1.80% 70 -32,998 1.30% 11.70%
Columbus, OH 34.2 85% 3.40% 61 2,507 1.40% 13.50%
Rochester, NY 34 85% 2.00% 86 1,330 3.20% 12.60%
Kansas City, MO 33.4 -1,491 1.30% 10.90%
Buffalo, NY 33.1 86% 2.60% 78 1,877 1.40% 17.00%
Boston, MA 32.6 79% 1.20% 63 -23,964 2.80% 12.20%
Cincinnati, OH 32.6 87% 3.90% 84 -360 1.30% 13.90%
Cleveland, OH 32.4 86% 2.50% 71 225 1.20% 9.50%
El Paso, TX 32.2 89 -24 1.80% 13.90%
Montgomery County, PA 31.4 83% 1.80% 66 6,685 0.80% 11.00%
Philadelphia, PA 30.4 86% 2.00% 64 -15,721 1.40% 10.10%
Akron, OH 29.6 87% 2.70% 83 2,029 1.20% 7.90%

 

Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/metros-recession-risk-housing-downturn-2022/

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