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How Trump’s 2026 Housing Reforms Aim to Tackle Affordability Crisis

December 21, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

How Trump’s 2026 Housing Reforms Aim to Tackle Affordability Crisis

President Trump’s 2026 housing reforms aim to boost affordability by lowering mortgage rates, cutting red tape on new construction, and possibly introducing new loan types, though the full impact depends on legislative action and economic conditions.

The dream of owning a home feels like it's slipping through the fingers of many Americans. It’s like trying to catch smoke – the harder you grasp, the less you have. For years, we’ve watched home prices climb higher and higher, while our paychecks seem to be stuck in slow motion. This isn't just tough; it's downright frustrating, especially for young families just starting out and for those who have worked hard their whole lives for a piece of the American dream.

How Trump’s 2026 Housing Reforms Aim to Tackle Affordability Crisis

In late 2025, the average home costs around $417,000. That’s about five times the median household income of $83,000. Think about that for a second – you'd need to make close to $80,000 a year just to have a decent shot at affording a median-priced home. And it's not just the sticker price; adding in the cost of borrowing that money, our monthly mortgage payments have jumped up by about 50% since 2020. It's no wonder that fewer people, especially first-time buyers, can get their foot in the door. The numbers are stark: only about 26% of people are buying their first home, a big drop from before 2008.

It's within this challenging environment that President Trump has laid out plans for 2026, promising “some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history.” He sees this as a direct way to bring down the cost of housing and make homeownership attainable again. Based on what’s been said and the initial actions taken, these reforms appear to be a mix of trying to make borrowing cheaper and trying to build more homes faster.

The Roots of the Crisis: A Long Time Coming

To truly understand what Trump’s reforms might do, we need to look at why we got here in the first place. It wasn't an overnight problem. For years, we haven't been building enough homes to keep up with how many people want them. Think of it like a restaurant: if there are more people wanting to eat than there are tables, prices go up. That’s exactly what’s happened with housing.

The issues are many-layered:

  • Supply Shortage: For years, builders haven't been constructing enough new homes. We're facing a shortage of about 2 to 4 million homes nationwide.
  • Strict Rules (Zoning): Many places have strict rules about what you can build where. Often, it’s only single-family homes allowed, which makes it hard to build apartments or townhouses that could house more people more affordably. Studies suggest that over 75% of land in the U.S. is zoned for just single-family homes.
  • Rising Costs: The cost of building materials, like lumber and steel, has gone up. Plus, there's a shortage of construction workers, pushing labor costs higher.
  • Interest Rates: When interest rates for mortgages are low, more people can afford to buy. When they are high, like they have been sometimes, buying becomes much more expensive. The 30-year mortgage rate, which was under 3% not too long ago, has hovered over 6% lately.

The data paints a clear picture of this growing gap.

Year Median Home Price Median Household Income Price-to-Income Ratio Notes
2020 $329,000 $68,400 4.8 Low rates fueled a surge; affordability peaked.
2021 $380,000 (est.) $70,800 5.4 Prices jumped 15%; inventory dropped 50%.
2022 $410,000 (est.) $74,600 5.5 Rates rose to 5.3%; buyers started to pull back.
2023 $417,700 $77,300 5.4 Peak rates at 8%; sales hit 1995 lows.
2024 $419,200 $80,610 5.2 Modest price growth; incomes caught up slightly.
2025 $416,900 $83,150 5.0 Rates eased to 6.7%; ratio stabilized but remained high.

Table: U.S. Median Home Prices vs. Household Incomes (2020-2025). Data based on various sources, including Visual Capitalist and Census Bureau.

As you can see, while incomes have grown, home prices have grown faster. This means that even with slightly better incomes in 2025, the dream of homeownership is still a tough climb for many.

Unpacking the Proposed 2026 Reforms: What’s the Plan?

President Trump has spoken about a two-pronged approach. First, he wants to make borrowing money for a house cheaper. Second, he wants to make it easier and faster to build new homes.

Here’s a breakdown of what his administration is proposing:

1. Making Mortgages More Affordable:

  • Lower Interest Rates: A big part of the plan involves pushing for lower interest rates. Trump has indicated he’ll nominate someone to lead the Federal Reserve who favors “lower interest rates by a LOT.” If 30-year mortgage rates could drop below 6% (they’ve been around 6.21% recently), it could save homeowners over $3,000 a year on a $400,000 loan. Some experts think rates could even go lower, potentially saving buyers even more.
  • Innovative Mortgage Ideas:
    • 50-Year Loans: This idea, floated before, would extend the time you have to pay back your mortgage. While it means a lower monthly payment, it also means you'll pay more in total interest over the life of the loan. Supporters say it makes homes accessible; critics worry about people being in debt longer.
    • “Portable” Mortgages: Imagine you have a great low interest rate on your current home. If you move, this might let you take that same low rate with you to a new home. This could encourage people with low-rate mortgages to sell, freeing up more homes for buyers. It’s estimated this could add around 500,000 new listings each year.
  • Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) Reform: This refers to big companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that help make mortgages available. The plan might involve making it easier for them to lend money, possibly by lowering credit score requirements or offering more support for building new homes.

2. Boosting the Supply of Homes:

  • Deregulation and Cutting Red Tape: This is a major focus. The Housing for the 21st Century Act, a bipartisan bill, is a key piece. It aims to:
    • Streamline Zoning: Encourage local areas to change their zoning laws to allow for more types of housing, like duplexes or apartment buildings, in areas traditionally reserved for single-family homes. This could make it much easier to build denser housing.
    • Pre-Approved Designs: Create a list of approved home designs that builders can use, cutting down the time it takes to get permits. This could shave off 30% to 50% of the time needed for approvals.
    • Faster Environmental Reviews: Speed up the process for reviewing the environmental impact of housing projects.
  • Opening Up Federal Land: The plan includes making about 1.5 million acres of federal land available for residential development. This is a significant amount of land that could potentially be used to build thousands of new homes.
  • Reforming Grants: Changing how federal grants are given out to encourage new home construction.
  • Tariff Rebates and Incentives: Trump has also talked about offering rebates on tariffs for building materials and even tax deductions for auto loan interest if tied to home purchases. This is a bit of a complex mix of his “America First” trade policies with housing goals.

Potential Upsides: The Promise of Relief

If these reforms work as intended, the impact could be significant.

  • More Homes, Lower Prices: The biggest hope is that by making it easier and faster to build, we'll see a lot more homes on the market. Housing industry groups predict that zoning reforms alone could lead to 300,000 to 500,000 more homes being built each year. More supply generally leads to more stable or even lower prices.
  • Easier to Buy: Lower interest rates mean lower monthly payments. For a family looking to buy a $400,000 house at a 6% interest rate, a drop to 5% could save them hundreds of dollars a month. This could unlock homeownership for hundreds of thousands of first-time buyers who are currently priced out.
  • Job Creation: A surge in construction activity is expected to create jobs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that increased building could create around 1.5 million new jobs.
  • Economic Boost: More construction means more spending on materials, more jobs, and more people buying homes, which can give the whole economy a lift.
  • Addressing Inequality: For communities that have historically been shut out of homeownership, especially Black and Hispanic communities where ownership rates are lower, these reforms could offer a much-needed chance to build wealth.

Risks and Criticisms: The Other Side of the Coin

However, not everyone is convinced. There are serious concerns and potential downsides to consider.

  • Conflicting Policies: One of the biggest criticisms is that some proposed policies might actually work against the goal of affordability. For instance, Trump's stance on tariffs on goods like lumber and steel could increase the cost of building materials. Some estimates suggest this could add as much as $17,500 to the cost of a new home, potentially canceling out any savings from deregulation and actually reducing the number of homes built.
  • Budget Cuts Impact: Proposed budget cuts for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are a major worry for many. If programs that help vulnerable people get housing are cut, it could increase homelessness. Reports suggest that proposed cuts could affect hundreds of thousands of people who rely on these programs. This seems to contradict the goal of improving housing for everyone.
  • Long-Term Debt: While 50-year mortgages might lower monthly payments, they mean people will be paying off their homes for a much longer time, potentially paying much more in interest over the years. This could lead to people being burdened with debt for longer.
  • Environmental Concerns: The push to speed up building by reducing environmental reviews worries some groups. They argue that necessary safeguards to protect our environment and ensure homes are built resiliently (e.g., against climate change) might be overlooked.
  • Uncertainty of Implementation: Many of these reforms, especially those involving legislative action like the Housing for the 21st Century Act, will need approval from Congress. Even with a Republican majority, getting a bipartisan bill through can be a long and difficult road. The nomination of a Federal Reserve chair is also a key factor; if that doesn't happen as planned or the new chair doesn't act as expected, the interest rate cuts might not materialize.

My Thoughts on the Matter

From where I stand, observing the housing market for a while now, I see the urgency. The affordability crisis is real and deeply impacts families’ dreams and financial well-being. President Trump’s focus on aggressive reform is a necessary response to the scale of the problem.

I believe the supply-side deregulation aspect of his plan holds the most promise. When you make it easier and cheaper to build, you directly address the fundamental imbalance in the market. Streamlining zoning and permitting processes, and perhaps even making federal land available, could genuinely unlock thousands of new homes. This is where I see the potential for real, tangible relief.

On the other hand, I’m wary of policies that seem to contradict this goal. Tariffs on building materials, for example, strike me as counterproductive. It’s like trying to fill a leaky bucket by plugging one hole while leaving several others wide open. For these reforms to truly succeed, there needs to be a careful balance. We can't afford to increase building costs while trying to lower them for buyers.

The innovation in mortgage products, like portable mortgages, is intriguing. It addresses a specific market friction—people being “locked” into low rates. If implemented smartly, this could indeed help unfreeze the market and bring more supply.

However, the proposed cuts to housing assistance programs are deeply concerning. Housing is a basic need, and as a society, we have a responsibility to help those most vulnerable. Balancing aggressive deregulation with continued support for low-income families and those facing homelessness will be critical. This isn't just about building more homes; it's about ensuring everyone has a safe and affordable place to live.

The effectiveness of these reforms will ultimately depend on how well these different pieces fit together and whether they can pass the necessary legislative hurdles. It’s a bold agenda, and the outcome will likely be a mix of positive advancements and challenging setbacks.

Looking Ahead: The Road to Affordable Housing

The coming year marks a critical juncture for the U.S. housing market. President Trump's 2026 housing reforms represent a significant effort to confront a deeply entrenched affordability crisis. The proposals, focusing on both making financing cheaper and building more homes faster, have the potential to reshape the housing landscape.

The success of these reforms will hinge on several factors:

  • Congressional Approval: Key legislative components, like the Housing for the 21st Century Act, need to be passed by Congress.
  • Economic Conditions: The broader economy, including inflation and job growth, will play a huge role.
  • Federal Reserve Actions: The independence and decisions of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates will be crucial.
  • Balance of Policies: Whether the administration can navigate the trade-offs, particularly between deregulation and potential cost increases from tariffs, will be key.

The pursuit of affordable housing is a complex, ongoing challenge. While these reforms offer a potential pathway forward, they also come with significant questions and potential risks that need careful consideration. For many Americans hoping to own a home, the next two years will be crucial to watch.

Want Stronger Returns? Invest Where the Housing Market’s Growing

Turnkey rental properties in fast-growing housing markets offer a powerful way to generate passive income with minimal hassle.

Work with Norada Real Estate to find stable, cash-flowing markets beyond the bubble zones—so you can build wealth without the risks of ultra-competitive areas.

🔥 HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED! 🔥

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Proposed FY2026 HUD Budget Cuts Could Reduce Housing Assistance for Millions
  • Housing Market Predictions 2026: No Crash, No Boom, Just Rebalancing
  • Will Real Estate Rebound in 2026: Top Predictions by Experts
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029
  • Housing Market Predictions for 2026 Show a Modest Price Rise of 1.2%
  • Housing Market Predictions 2026 for Buyers, Sellers, and Renters
  • 12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026
  • Real Estate Forecast: Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2025?
  • Housing Markets With the Biggest Decline in Home Prices Since 2024
  • Why Real Estate Can Thrive During Tariffs Led Economic Uncertainty
  • Rise of AI-Powered Hyperlocal Real Estate Marketing in 2025
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years: Top 5 Predictions for Future
  • 5 Hottest Real Estate Markets for Buyers & Investors in 2025

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Affordability, Housing Market, Housing Reforms

Proposed FY2026 HUD Budget Cuts Could Reduce Housing Assistance for Millions

December 21, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Proposed FY2026 HUD Budget Cuts Could Reduce Housing Assistance for Millions

Get ready, because the numbers being tossed around for the Fiscal Year 2026 Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) budget are, frankly, eye-opening and a little bit scary. At a glance, we're talking about a proposed cut of around $33 billion, which is a massive 44% reduction from what we’re looking at for FY2025.

Proposed FY2026 HUD Budget Cuts Could Reduce Housing Assistance for Millions

This isn’t just trimming around the edges; it signals a potential fundamental shift in how the federal government helps people find and keep a safe place to live. For anyone who relies on or works within housing assistance programs, this is a conversation we absolutely need to have, and the initial proposals suggest a move away from our current federal “Housing First” model towards a system where states would have more control through block grants.

This isn't just about numbers on a ledger. It’s about real people, families struggling to make ends meet, seniors on fixed incomes, individuals with disabilities, and those battling homelessness. The proposed changes, if enacted as presented by some in Congress, could reshape the entire landscape of federal housing aid, and not necessarily for the better.

The Sharp End of the Stick: Rental Assistance

Perhaps the most significant and immediate impact will be felt in rental assistance programs. The proposals are looking to slash funding for these vital services by a staggering $26.7 billion. This isn't just about reducing the number of vouchers; it's about a complete overhaul. Major programs like Section 8 (the Housing Choice Voucher program), Public Housing, and assistance for the elderly (Section 202) and disabled (Section 811) could be bundled into something new: a State Rental Assistance Block Grant.

What does this mean in plain English? Well, if we look at estimates from the House version of the proposal, it could mean 181,900 fewer households getting the help they need to pay rent. The Senate’s version, while less severe, still projects 107,800 fewer households served. This is a huge number of people who could lose their housing altogether.

And it’s not just about the sheer number of people affected. The proposals suggest introducing a two-year cap on assistance for non-elderly, able-bodied adults. Right now, many people rely on this assistance long-term to stabilize their lives, find jobs, or get an education. Imagine having that lifeline cut off after just two years. It could force people back into unstable situations, making it even harder to get ahead.

For those already on waiting lists for housing assistance, this spells more bad news. With reduced funding, these lists are expected to get even longer, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that many housing agencies could simply stop issuing new vouchers altogether. The dream of affordable housing, already a struggle for many, could become an even more distant reality.

Rethinking Homelessness Services: A Shift in Priorities?

The proposals also aim to restructure how we address homelessness. Programs like the Continuum of Care (CoC) and HOPWA (Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS) are being looked at to be combined into the Emergency Solutions Grants (ESG) program.

This is where things get particularly concerning for those in permanent supportive housing. The proposal includes a new cap, limiting spending on permanent housing to just 30%. Right now, programs are often spending much more on permanent housing solutions, typically averaging around 87-88%. This means a significant shift in resources, pushing more money towards shorter-term emergency shelters and transitional housing.

The warning from advocates is stark: this change could potentially force over 170,000 people currently living in permanent supportive housing back onto the streets or into crowded shelters. This feels like a step backward from a “Housing First” philosophy, which prioritizes getting people into stable housing as quickly as possible, recognizing that it’s the foundation from which they can address other challenges like employment, health, and recovery. Moving away from permanent housing solutions and towards temporary measures could create a revolving door for homelessness, rather than breaking the cycle.

Cutting the Foundations: Community Development Programs

Beyond direct rental and homelessness assistance, the proposed budget also targets essential community development programs for elimination. These aren't just abstract government programs; they are concrete tools that communities use to build and maintain affordable housing and revitalize neighborhoods.

  • HOME Investment Partnerships: This has been a crucial source of funding for building new affordable housing units and preserving existing ones. Its elimination would leave a significant gap for developers and non-profits working to create more affordable options.
  • Community Development Block Grants (CDBG): These grants are incredibly versatile and vital for local communities. They fund everything from fixing up public spaces and infrastructure to supporting local businesses and providing essential public services. Losing CDBG funding would mean towns and cities have less flexibility to address their unique needs, which often includes housing initiatives.
  • Self-Help Homeownership (SHOP) & Native Hawaiian Housing: The proposal aims to completely zero out funding for these programs, which help specific populations achieve homeownership through dedicated support and resources.

Losing these programs means losing the tools communities need to build a stronger, more affordable future. It’s like taking away the bricks and mortar that house development.

Protecting Rights and Ensuring Compliance: Fair Housing and Staffing

The proposals also cast a shadow over our nation's commitment to fair housing. Funding for initiatives designed to combat housing discrimination would be slashed by more than half. Specifically, the Fair Housing Initiatives Program (FHIP), which plays a critical role in handling about 75% of housing discrimination complaints, is slated for complete elimination.

This is deeply troubling. FHIP funds local organizations that actively investigate discrimination and conduct testing to uncover illegal housing practices. Without them, where will people go when they face discrimination? The budget also proposes zeroing out funding for the National Fair Housing Training Academy, which provides vital education for fair housing professionals. Furthermore, the Limited English Proficiency (LEP) Initiative, ensuring equal access for those with language barriers, is also marked for elimination.

This signals a potential shift in enforcement, moving away from proactive efforts to prevent discrimination towards a more reactive approach. The Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity (FHEO) itself would see significant cuts, leading to a reduction in federal staff dedicated to enforcing civil rights laws. This could mean slower investigations and less accountability for those who violate fair housing laws.

On top of all this, the proposal includes a substantial 26% reduction in HUD staff. From around 8,600 full-time employees down to approximately 6,340. This would likely slow down everything from processing applications and distributing funds to carrying out necessary inspections, impacting the overall efficiency of critical housing programs.

The Path Forward: Negotiations and Uncertainty

It’s important to remember that these are proposed budgets. The final outcome will depend on intense negotiations between the House and the Senate. As of late 2025, the House version leans towards deeper cuts, while the Senate’s approach is more moderate, suggesting an increase to keep pace with inflation rather than the deep reductions proposed elsewhere. Congress will ultimately vote on these measures.

From my perspective, these proposed cuts represent a significant threat to the progress we’ve made in addressing housing insecurity and homelessness. They seem to prioritize austerity over the fundamental human need for safe and affordable housing. While fiscal responsibility is important, especially in these economic times, gutting programs that serve our most vulnerable populations feels short-sighted and potentially more costly in the long run, both in human suffering and in increased demand on other social services.

The shift towards state-run block grants could lead to a patchwork of support across the country, with some states potentially offering more robust assistance than others, creating new inequities. The potential reversal of gains in permanent supportive housing for the homeless is particularly alarming, representing a step away from proven solutions.

I truly hope that our lawmakers will consider the real-world consequences of these proposals and seek a more balanced approach that protects and strengthens our vital housing assistance programs. Affordable housing isn't a luxury; it's a foundation for individual well-being and community stability.

Want Stronger Returns? Invest Where the Housing Market’s Growing

Turnkey rental properties in fast-growing housing markets offer a powerful way to generate passive income with minimal hassle.

Work with Norada Real Estate to find stable, cash-flowing markets beyond the bubble zones—so you can build wealth without the risks of ultra-competitive areas.

🔥 HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED! 🔥

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Housing Market Predictions 2026: No Crash, No Boom, Just Rebalancing
  • Will Real Estate Rebound in 2026: Top Predictions by Experts
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029
  • Housing Market Predictions for 2026 Show a Modest Price Rise of 1.2%
  • Housing Market Predictions 2026 for Buyers, Sellers, and Renters
  • 12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026
  • Real Estate Forecast: Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2025?
  • Housing Markets With the Biggest Decline in Home Prices Since 2024
  • Why Real Estate Can Thrive During Tariffs Led Economic Uncertainty
  • Rise of AI-Powered Hyperlocal Real Estate Marketing in 2025
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years: Top 5 Predictions for Future
  • 5 Hottest Real Estate Markets for Buyers & Investors in 2025

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Assistance, Housing Market, HUD

Best Places in Florida to Invest in Real Estate in 2026

December 21, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Best Florida Real Estate Investment Hotspots for 2026

Are you looking to put your money into Florida real estate for 2026? Smart move! If you're asking where the sweet spots are, let me tell you: Jacksonville, Cape Coral, Orlando, and the Tampa Bay area are shaping up to be your top contenders for solid returns and steady growth next year. These cities offer a compelling mix of affordability, job growth, and lifestyle appeal that's hard to beat.

For me, real estate investing isn't just about numbers; it's about understanding the pulse of a place. I've spent years digging into markets, talking to locals, and seeing what makes people want to live, work, and play in a particular area. Florida, with its perpetual sunshine and booming economy, always presents exciting opportunities. But like any investment, you need to know where to look. Forget the hype; let's get down to what's actually working and why.

Why Florida Still Reigns Supreme for Real Estate Investors

Before we dive into specific cities, let's talk about why Florida as a whole remains such a hotbed for real estate investment. It’s not just the beaches, though those certainly don't hurt!

  • Population Growth: People are flocking to Florida. Driven by a lower tax burden, good weather, and increasing job opportunities, the Sunshine State consistently ranks as one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. More people mean more demand for housing, which is music to an investor’s ears.
  • Diverse Economy: While tourism is a huge draw, Florida's economy is no longer a one-trick pony. We’re seeing massive growth in sectors like healthcare, technology, aerospace, and logistics. This diversification creates stable job markets, which in turn leads to steady rental demand and property appreciation.
  • Business-Friendly Environment: Florida actively courts businesses with incentives and a favorable regulatory climate. This attracts companies, which brings jobs, and where there are jobs, there are people looking for places to live.
  • No State Income Tax: This is a big one for residents and businesses alike, making Florida a more attractive place to earn and keep your money.

Now, with that broad picture in mind, let's get specific about the places offering the most promise for your investment dollars in 2026.

Best Places in Florida to Invest in Real Estate in 2026

Based on my research and gut feeling for what makes a market tick, here are the cities I’m keeping a close eye on:

1. Jacksonville, Florida: The Affordable Giant

Jacksonville is turning heads for all the right reasons, especially for investors looking for affordability combined with steady, sustainable growth. It’s a large city with a diverse economy, not solely reliant on one industry. You’ve got significant presence in tech, healthcare, and logistics here.

  • What I Like: The median home price is significantly lower than many other major Florida metros. As of October 2025 data, we’re looking at around $296,000. While prices have seen a slight dip year-over-year, this often presents an excellent buying opportunity. Homes are taking a bit longer to sell (around 74 days), which indicates a more balanced market where buyers have a little more room to negotiate, which is fantastic if you're looking to buy.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: Affordability means lower barrier to entry for investors. The steady job growth in sectors like healthcare and tech attracts a consistent stream of renters, supporting strong rental demand.Areas like Riverside and Jacksonville Beach are not just popular with residents but are also drawing serious attention for rental and resale potential. It’s a city with a solid foundation for long-term appreciation.

2. Cape Coral, Florida: Coastal Charm and Cash Flow Potential

The Cape Coral/Fort Myers area is a perennial favorite, and for 2026, it continues to shine, especially for those eyeing both cash flow from rentals and the appeal of short-term vacation rentals. It's a place where people dream of living the coastal life.

  • What I Like: Cape Coral is often a buyer's market, meaning there's a good amount of inventory to choose from, giving you leverage when making offers. The median sale price is around $345,000, which, considering its waterfront appeal, is quite competitive. With homes moving to pending status in about 65 days, the market is active, but the increasing inventory suggests it's not overheated.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: The demand for waterfront properties is consistently high. This is perfect for vacation rental investors who can tap into the growing tourism and snowbird markets. The new home development is also a sign of a healthy, growing area. My take? This is a prime spot for properties that offer a direct lifestyle benefit to renters, which often translates to higher rental income.

3. Orlando, Florida: Beyond the Theme Parks

When you think Orlando, you probably think Disney World. But let me tell you, this city has matured significantly. It’s rapidly transforming into a major hub for tech and healthcare, driving significant job growth that's attracting a different kind of resident – the long-term professional.

  • What I Like: Orlando’s single-family home median price was around $425,000 in July 2025. While this is higher than some other markets, the modest growth expected combined with burgeoning job sectors makes it a strong bet. The key here is looking at specific submarkets.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: Areas like Lake Nona (a purpose-built health and life sciences hub) and Winter Garden are where the action is. These areas are experiencing new developments and have incredibly strong rental demand from young professionals and families moving in for those high-paying tech and healthcare jobs. It's not just about tourist rentals anymore; this is about attracting stable, long-term tenants.

4. Tampa Bay Area: A Balanced Powerhouse

The Tampa Bay region, encompassing Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater, offers what I consider a highly balanced and promising market. It has everything: a booming job market, a continuous influx of new residents, and that irresistible combination of urban excitement and beautiful beaches.

  • What I Like: In February 2025, the median home price was around $450,000, and it had seen a solid 5.4% increase year-over-year. What's really impressive is how fast homes are selling here – an average of just 33 days in February 2025. This tells me demand is incredibly high. However, I also need to acknowledge the data point suggesting a risk of price falls due to market competitiveness. This means as an investor, you need to be savvy and look for value, perhaps in specific suburbs.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: Tampa itself boasts strong job growth. St. Petersburg is becoming a real hotspot for tech and arts, attracting a younger demographic. For investors looking for more affordable, family-friendly options, surrounding suburbs like Wesley Chapel are fantastic. It’s a diverse market where you can find opportunities at different price points and risk levels. Just be mindful of overpaying; thorough due diligence is crucial here.

5. Port Charlotte, Florida: The Emerging Gem

Part of the larger North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro area, Port Charlotte is often cited as a top buyer's market. It’s a place that’s actively developing its infrastructure, making it increasingly attractive to both retirees and families.

  • What I Like: The data shows a median sale price around $264,000 as of September 2025, with a notable 12.1% decrease in home values over the past year. This suggests the market has cooled, positioning it as an excellent buyer's market with potential for negotiation. Homes are selling in about 63 days, indicating a steady pace rather than a frantic rush.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: Its relative affordability and proximity to stunning beaches mean it has strong appeal for a broad demographic. The ongoing infrastructure development is a positive sign for future growth. I see this as a market with stable rental demand and good potential for resale value increases as the area continues to mature. The average rent was around $1,827 with only a slight decrease year-over-year, showing rent stability.

6. Ocala, Florida: Inland Value and Growth

If you're looking inland and want something a bit more off the beaten path but still showing strong signs of life, Ocala is worth a look. It’s known for its affordability and rapid population growth.

  • What I Like: The median sale price was a very accessible $266,000 in October 2025, showing a 4.0% increase year-over-year. While homes are taking longer to sell (around 73 days), this is more about a balanced market than a struggling one.
  • Why It’s Great for Investors: Ocala offers lower entry costs for investors, which is always appealing. The economy here is growing, particularly in logistics and healthcare, attracting a diverse demographic including families and retirees. This means a broader base for rental demand and appreciation potential.

7. Miami, Florida

While definitely a market for experienced investors, Miami continues to attract global capital. Its luxury property demand remains resilient, and areas like Brickell and Wynwood boast strong rental markets. Be aware that entry prices are high, and insurance costs can be significant, but the potential for robust, long-term appreciation is undeniable for those who can afford it.

My Perspective on Florida’s Real Estate Market in 2026

As I look at these markets, a few key themes emerge for successful investing in 2026:

  • Focus on Fundamentals: Job growth, population trends, and economic diversification are your best friends. Don’t chase fads. Look for cities with strong underlying economic drivers.
  • Understand the Local Nuances: Even within these top cities, neighborhoods can vary wildly. I always recommend doing your homework on specific submarkets. What’s happening with schools, infrastructure, and local development plans?
  • Be a Savvy Negotiator (Where Possible): While some markets are hotter than others, understanding market temperature and inventory levels will empower you to make smart offers. In places like Cape Coral and Port Charlotte, you might find more room to negotiate.
  • Factor in All Costs: Especially with Florida’s insurance market, always build in a buffer for high insurance premiums and potential future increases. Also, consider property taxes, maintenance, and vacancy rates.
  • Think Long-Term: Real estate is generally a long-term play. While some markets can offer quicker returns, focusing on steady appreciation and reliable rental income will serve you best.

Florida’s real estate market for 2026 continues to be a land of opportunity. By focusing on these key cities and understanding the drivers behind their growth, you’ll be well on your way to making a smart investment.

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Want to Know More About the Florida Housing Market?

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Filed Under: Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Florida, Florida Condos, Housing Market

Housing Market Distress Mounts as Foreclosure Activity Rises for Ninth Month in a Row

December 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Distress Mounts as Foreclosure Activity Rises for Ninth Month in a Row

The U.S. housing market is showing clear signs of strain, with foreclosure filings increasing year-over-year for the ninth consecutive month, signaling a troubling shift for many homeowners and a potential inflection point for the real estate sector. This persistent rise in foreclosure activity, as reported by ATTOM, suggests that the economic pressures faced by a growing number of households are translating into tangible distress.

It’s hard not to feel a sense of unease when you see the numbers, and this latest report from ATTOM paints a picture that’s hard to ignore. For the ninth month straight, we’re seeing more homes going into some stage of the foreclosure process compared to the same time last year. This isn't just a blip; it's a trend. In November 2025, a total of 35,651 U.S. properties had foreclosure filings.

While this is a slight dip from October, it's a significant 21 percent jump from November of the previous year. When I look at this data, I see more than just numbers; I see families facing difficult decisions and a market that’s clearly under pressure.

Housing Market Distress Mounts as Foreclosure Activity Rises for Ninth Month in a Row

Why the Climb? Unpacking the Foreclosure Trend

As Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, points out, “Foreclosure starts were up 17 percent from last year and completed foreclosures rose 26 percent.” This indicates that more homeowners are falling behind on their payments and lenders are taking action. While these numbers are still lower than what we saw during the Great Recession, the consistent upward movement is a clear signal that the market is “normalizing,” as Barber puts it. But let’s be honest, for those directly affected, it feels more like a significant struggle against higher housing costs and shifting economic pressures.

From my perspective, several factors are likely contributing to this escalating trend:

  • Elevated Interest Rates: Many homeowners who bought or refinanced when interest rates were at historic lows are now facing much higher payments if they need to move or if their adjustable-rate mortgages reset. This can put a severe strain on household budgets.
  • Inflationary Pressures: The cost of everyday goods and services remains high, squeezing disposable income. When there's less money left after covering essential expenses, mortgage payments can become harder to manage.
  • Job Market Uncertainty: While the job market has shown resilience, there are pockets of instability. Layoffs and reduced hours can quickly lead to homeowners being unable to meet their financial obligations.
  • Stagnant or Declining Home Equity in Some Areas: In some regions, home price appreciation has slowed or even reversed. This can leave homeowners with little to no equity to tap into if they need cash, making it harder to stave off foreclosure.

Where is the Distress Most Pronounced?

The ATTOM report highlights specific states and metropolitan areas that are seeing the brunt of this foreclosure surge. It's important to look at these areas to understand the localized impacts.

States with the Worst Foreclosure Rates (November 2025):

State Foreclosure Rate (1 in X housing units)
Delaware 1,924
South Carolina 1,973
Nevada 2,373
New Jersey 2,511
Florida 2,565

Nationwide, one in every 3,992 housing units had a foreclosure filing. Seeing states like Delaware and South Carolina with rates more than double the national average is a serious concern. These aren't just statistics; they represent communities where people are struggling.

Among larger cities (metro areas with over 1 million people), Philadelphia, PA, recorded the highest foreclosure rate, with one filing for every 1,511 housing units. ATTOM notes this was partly due to a temporary spike from resumed data collection, which is expected to correct itself. However, other major metros also show significant distress:

  • Las Vegas, NV: 1 filing for every 2,013 housing units
  • Cleveland, OH: 1 filing for every 2,114 housing units
  • Orlando, FL: 1 filing for every 2,282 housing units
  • Tampa, FL: 1 filing for every 2,362 housing units

It’s interesting to note that even in these troubled areas, the overall volume of foreclosures remains historically lower than peak crisis times. This offers a sliver of hope, suggesting that perhaps more homeowners have built up equity or have better financial cushions than in the past.

Foreclosure Starts vs. Completed Foreclosures: What's the Difference?

It's crucial to understand the different stages of foreclosure.

  1. Foreclosure Starts: This is when lenders initiate the formal process, often with a notice of default or lis pendens. In November 2025, lenders started the foreclosure process on 23,720 U.S. properties. This is a 17 percent increase year-over-year.
  2. Completed Foreclosures (REOs – Real Estate Owned): This is when the lender repossesses the home. There were 3,884 completed foreclosures in November 2025, an increase of 26 percent from the previous year.

The fact that both starts and completions are rising indicates that the issue is widespread and moving through the pipeline at an accelerated pace.

States Leading in Foreclosure Starts (November 2025):

  1. Florida (2,819)
  2. Texas (2,612)
  3. California (2,090)
  4. New York (1,146)
  5. Illinois (1,075)

Interestingly, some major metropolitan areas, which typically see high numbers, actually experienced decreases in foreclosure starts compared to last year. For example, Boston, Miami, and Sacramento showed declines. This could suggest localized economic recovery in those specific urban centers, or perhaps more effective loss mitigation strategies being implemented there.

Looking Ahead: What Does This Mean for the Housing Market?

The steady rise in foreclosure activity is a strong indicator that the housing market is facing significant headwinds. As an observer of the real estate world, I see this as a natural, albeit painful, correction after years of rapid price growth and low interest rates.

  • Potential Increase in Available Inventory: As more homes enter the foreclosure process and are eventually repossessed, the supply of homes for sale could increase. This might help to stabilize or even slightly decrease home prices in some areas, which could be a welcome development for potential buyers struggling with affordability.
  • Impact on Home Prices: A sustained increase in supply, particularly of distressed properties, could put downward pressure on home prices. However, the extent of this impact will vary greatly by region, depending on local demand, economic conditions, and the sheer volume of foreclosures.
  • Opportunities for Investors: For those with the capital and expertise, rising foreclosures can present opportunities to acquire properties at a discount. However, this market requires careful due diligence and a solid understanding of the risks involved.
  • Challenge for Homeowners: For homeowners facing foreclosure, this is a deeply stressful time. It underscores the importance of proactive financial planning and seeking help from housing counselors or legal aid if needed.

While the situation is concerning, it’s important to remember that we are not in a widespread housing crisis on the scale of 2008. The market has more equity, and lending standards are generally tighter. However, the ongoing rise in foreclosure activity is a clear warning sign that we need to pay close attention to the economic well-being of homeowners and the stability of the housing market.

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Want to Know More About Foreclosure Trends?

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Filed Under: Foreclosures, Housing Market Tagged With: foreclosure, foreclosure rate, Housing Market, REO

Housing Market Trends 2025: Sales, Prices, and Supply Analysis

December 19, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

housing market trends

In 2025, the housing market is showing a more balanced, albeit still watchful, picture. Existing-home sales saw a modest uptick in November 2025, driven by more favorable mortgage rates, but the overall supply of homes remains a key factor to watch for continued price appreciation.

It feels like just yesterday we were navigating the wild swings of the housing market, and I’ve been immersed in it for years, watching trends ebb and flow. What I'm seeing now, based on the latest reports from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), suggests a market settling into a more sustainable rhythm. The November 2025 data paints a nuanced story: sales are inching up, prices are holding steady with slight year-over-year gains, and inventory, while still tight, is showing signs of a slight increase compared to the previous year.

Housing Market Trends 2025: Sales, Prices, and Supply Analysis

A Closer Look at Sales in November 2025

The big news from NAR's November report is that existing-home sales increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month. This sounds small, but it's the third consecutive monthly rise, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate to 4.13 million units. This bump is directly linked to those lower mortgage rates we saw this past autumn. When borrowing becomes cheaper, more people start thinking about buying that new home.

Looking at the bigger picture, year-over-year, sales were down 1.0%. This tells me that while we're seeing improvement in the short term, the market is still reacting to the higher rates experienced earlier. It’s a bit of a tug-of-war between current affordability and past challenges.

Regionally, sales picked up in the Northeast and the South, stayed flat in the West, and dipped a bit in the Midwest. This pattern often reflects where job growth is strongest and where people are feeling more confident about putting down roots.

It’s fascinating to see how different housing types perform. According to the report, single-family homes continue to outperform condominiums. The median price for a condo is still significantly lower than for a single-family home, but we need to remember those ongoing condo association fees, which are climbing and can add a substantial chunk to the monthly housing cost.

Where Are Prices Heading?

This is the question on everyone's mind, isn't it? As of November 2025, the median existing-home price for all housing types stood at $409,200. This marks a 1.2% increase from the previous year. What’s really remarkable is that this is the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. It shows a persistent demand that keeps prices from falling, even with slightly slower sales activity.

  • Single-Family Homes: The median price for a single-family home also saw a 1.2% year-over-year increase, reaching $414,300.
  • Condominiums and Co-ops: These saw a more modest 0.1% increase year-over-year, with a median price of $358,600.

The West region saw a slight 0.9% decrease in median prices year-over-year, with the median price there at a still-high $618,900. This is an interesting counter-trend, and I'll be watching to see if this continues or if it's just a temporary blip in a generally upward trajectory across the country. Meanwhile, the Midwest saw a healthy 5.8% jump in median prices, likely benefiting from more affordable entry points.

The Crucial Factor: Housing Supply

This is where things get really interesting, and frankly, a bit concerning. While sales are improving, inventory is starting to feel the squeeze again. In November 2025, the total housing inventory was 1.43 million units. This is actually down 5.9% from October, meaning fewer homes were listed for sale in the final month of the year.

However, looking year-over-year, inventory is up 7.5% from November 2024. This is a positive sign, suggesting that more homeowners are starting to list their properties, which is essential for a healthy market. Still, we're looking at a 4.2-month supply of unsold inventory. Ideally, a balanced market has about 5-6 months of supply. So, while we're moving in the right direction, we're not quite there yet.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist, pointed out that “inventory growth is beginning to stall.” He also noted that with distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are quite comfortable staying put, especially during the winter months. This reluctance to sell is a significant contributor to the tight supply we're experiencing.

As a seasoned observer of the market, I can tell you that this lack of supply is the primary driver behind sustained price growth. When there are more buyers than homes, prices naturally get bid up. For 2025, addressing this supply issue is going to be paramount for achieving greater housing affordability and stability.

Who's Buying and How Are They Paying?

The NAR report also gives us insights into the buyers. The median time on market for properties in November 2025 was 36 days, up from 34 days the previous month and 32 days in November 2024. This slight increase in how long homes are sitting on the market suggests buyers have a little more breathing room and aren't facing the intense bidding wars of the recent past.

  • First-Time Homebuyers: They accounted for 30% of sales, which is unchanged from the previous year. While this is a steady number, it highlights the continuing challenge for new entrants to the market, especially with higher prices and competition.
  • Cash Sales: 27% of transactions were cash sales, up from 25% in November 2024. This indicates that investors or buyers with significant liquid assets are still a strong force.
  • Individual Investors/Second-Home Buyers: This group made up 18% of transactions, a notable increase from 13% in November 2024. This rise suggests that some investors see opportunities in the current market, likely anticipating future appreciation or rental income.
  • Distressed Sales: These remained at a historic low of 2%, confirming that foreclosures and short sales are not a significant market factor right now.

The Mortgage Rate Factor

Mortgage rates are closely tied to housing affordability and sales activity. In November 2025, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.24%. This is down from 6.25% in October and a noticeable drop from 6.81% a year ago. This moderation in rates is a welcome development and has undoubtedly contributed to the uptick in sales. For 2025, I believe continued stability or even further slight declines in mortgage rates will be a key catalyst for the housing market.

Looking Ahead to 2025: My Take

Based on this data and my own experience, here's what I foresee for the Housing Market Trends 2025:

  • Sales: I expect sales to continue their gradual upward trend. As more inventory comes on the market and mortgage rates remain relatively stable, more buyers will find their way back into the market. However, I don't anticipate a return to the frenzied pace of a couple of years ago. It will be a more deliberate and considered approach for most.
  • Prices: Price growth will likely moderate. While the upward trend will probably continue, the rapid appreciation we’ve seen might slow down. The balancing act between still-limited supply and improving affordability will keep prices moving, but perhaps at a more sustainable pace. We might see some regional variations, with hotter markets continuing to see stronger growth while more stagnant areas might experience flatlining or slight adjustments.
  • Supply: This remains the critical piece of the puzzle. While there are signs of improvement, the lack of affordable housing supply will continue to be a significant challenge throughout 2025. Efforts to boost new construction and encourage existing homeowners to sell will be crucial for the market's long-term health. I expect we'll see more policy discussions around incentivizing building and perhaps innovative solutions to bring more homes onto the market.

In essence, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of continued adjustment and stabilization for the housing market. It’s a market where thoughtful decision-making, backed by solid data and an understanding of the underlying forces, will be key for both buyers and sellers.

2026 Housing Market Forecast for Investors

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Recommended Read:

  • Housing Market Predictions for 2025 by Bank of America
  • Housing Market Predictions for the Next 4 Years: 2025 to 2028
  • Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2024-2026
  • Housing Market Forecast Shows Affordability Crisis to Continue in 2025
  • Housing Market Predictions for Next Year: Prices to Rise by 4.4%
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 5 Years: Top 5 Predictions for Future
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

December 18, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in the Bay Area, or honestly, just curious about what's happening with one of the most talked-about real estate markets in the country, you've come to the right place. Let's dive into the Bay Area Housing Market Forecast.

The short answer? It looks like things are settling down. After some wild swings, the market seems to be finding a more stable footing, with modest price changes expected rather than a huge crash or another runaway boom in the immediate future. But as always with the Bay Area, there are layers to unpack.

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

🏠 Current Average Home Value
$1,087,917 (Zillow)
in the Bay Area (November 2025)
⏱️ Median Days to Pending
21 Days
Time for pending sales
📉 2025 Bay Area Price Forecast
-1.6%
expected decline between November 2025 to November 2026
💹 Sales Dynamics
49.4%
of sales above listing price (October 2025)

 

Where the Bay Area Market Stands Today

Before we look ahead, let's get a feel for where the Bay Area housing market is today. Based on the latest data I'm seeing:

  • The average home value across the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area is sitting around $1,087,917.
  • That's actually down 3.2% compared to this time last year. It tells me things aren't just going up blindly anymore.
  • Homes are moving reasonably quickly, taking about 21 days on average to go into pending status. This is a decent pace, showing continued interest.
  • The median sale price recently clocked in at $1,105,333.
  • And the median list price (what sellers are asking) is currently $949,963.

This snapshot shows a market that's cooling off from the frenzy of previous years but still holds significant value and demand. Buyers might have a little more breathing room than before, but inventory and price points remain high.

A Look at the Forecast

Predicting the future is tough, but experts try their best! Zillow recently shared some insights into what they expect for the San Francisco area market. Here’s a breakdown of their predictions based on available data, looking at a few key dates:

Region Name Forecast Period Starts Forecast Dec 2025 Forecast Feb 2026 Forecast Nov 2026
San Francisco, CA (MSA) Nov 30, 2025 +0.2% -0.3% -1.6%

What does this mean?

  • December 2025: Zillow predicts a tiny increase of 0.2% in home values. This suggests a very slight upward tick, almost flat.
  • February 2026: By early 2026, the forecast shifts slightly negative, predicting a 0.3% drop. This indicates stabilization or a minor dip.
  • November 2026: Looking out a full year from late 2025, Zillow forecasts a larger decrease of -1.6%. This points towards a continued trend of modest price declines over the next year.

So, Zillow isn't predicting a crash, but they aren't forecasting a boom either. Their Bay Area housing market forecast suggests a period of slight depreciation or stabilization through much of 2026. Keep in mind this is for the broader metro area (MSA), which includes surrounding counties.

For context, let's look at nearby San Jose, another key part of the Bay Area:

  • December 2025: +0.6%
  • February 2026: -0.1%
  • November 2026: +0.8%

San Jose's numbers are a bit more mixed, showing a slightly stronger start but still settling into a more moderate range by the end of the forecast period. It's interesting how different parts of the Bay might behave slightly differently!

Bay Area vs. The Rest of the State of California

How does the Bay Area's outlook stack up against other major California cities? It's always helpful to compare. Here’s Zillow’s forecast for various regions in California:

Region Name Forecast Dec 2025 Forecast Feb 2026 Forecast Nov 2026
Los Angeles +0.2% +0.1% +1.2%
Riverside +0.1% +0.4% +2.2%
San Diego 0% -0.4% +1.6%
Sacramento 0% -0.3% -0.5%
San Jose +0.6% -0.1% +0.8%
Fresno +0.2% +0.4% +1.8%
Bakersfield +0.1% +0.3% +2.3%
Oxnard +0.2% 0% +0.9%
Stockton -0.2% -0.5% -0.7%
Modesto +0.1% +0.1% +0.8%
San Fran. +0.2% -0.3% -1.6%

Source: Zillow

From this, we can see a few things:

  • The San Francisco metro area has one of the most negative forecasts looking out to late 2026 among these regions.
  • San Jose shows a slightly more positive outlook by late 2026 than San Francisco.
  • Southern California markets like Los Angeles and San Diego are predicted to see modest growth by late 2026.
  • Inland areas like Bakersfield and Riverside show stronger positive growth predictions by the end of 2026.
  • Sacramento and Stockton are also showing slight declines in their longer-term forecasts, similar to San Francisco.

This comparison suggests the Bay Area, particularly San Francisco, might continue to experience a cooling trend relative to some other parts of California, while areas with potentially lower price points and different economic drivers might see more growth.

The Bigger Picture: National Housing Market Trends

What’s happening nationwide also influences our local Bay Area market. Both Zillow and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have shared their thoughts on the U.S. housing market.

Zillow's National Predictions:

  • Home Values: Expect a modest rise of about 1.2% over the next 12 months. This is driven by ongoing inventory challenges, even with slightly softer demand.
  • Home Sales: They predict around 4.09 million existing home sales in 2025, a small increase from 2024. Things are expected to pick up more steam in 2026 as mortgage rates potentially ease.
  • Rents: Single-family rents are predicted to increase by 2.2%, partly because high mortgage rates are keeping more people renting. Apartment rents might dip slightly.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun's Outlook:

  • Existing Home Sales: Yun is more optimistic, forecasting a 6% increase in 2025 and an 11% jump in 2026. He sees a real recovery coming.
  • New Home Sales: Projected to grow by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, which is great news for tackling housing shortages.
  • Median Home Prices: Modest growth is expected, around 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. This is a return to more sustainable appreciation.
  • Mortgage Rates: Yun sees rates averaging 6.4% in late 2025 and dropping to 6.1% in 2026. He calls lower rates a “magic bullet” for affordability.

My Take on National Trends: The national picture suggests a market moving towards stabilization and modest growth, heavily influenced by mortgage rates. If rates come down as predicted, it could unlock demand nationwide. However, the Bay Area often dances to its own beat due to its unique economic factors and extremely high costs.

So, Will Bay Area Home Prices Drop Significantly? Will it Crash?

This is the million-dollar question, right? Based on everything I'm seeing – the current slight year-over-year dip, Zillow's forecast showing declines through late 2026 for SF, and the national trends pointing towards stabilization – I don't think we're looking at a “crash” in the way some might fear.

A crash usually means a steep, rapid drop in prices across the board, often tied to major economic downturns or market imbalances. While the Bay Area is seeing some price softening, especially compared to the peaks, several factors are likely preventing a nosedive:

  1. Persistent Housing Shortage: We've built far fewer homes than needed for decades. This fundamental supply issue provides a floor for prices. Even with slower demand, there simply aren't enough homes for everyone who wants one.
  2. Strong Job Market (Relatively): Despite tech layoffs, the Bay Area remains a hub for innovation and attracts talent. A healthy (even if evolving) job market supports housing demand.
  3. Interest Rate Sensitivity: The current high mortgage rates are impacting affordability and cooling demand, which explains the price moderation. If rates ease significantly as NAR predicts, it could actually boost prices by bringing more buyers back into the market.
  4. Inventory Levels: While improving slightly, inventory isn't overflowing. Homes are still selling within a reasonable time frame. A market crash typically involves a huge glut of homes sitting on the market.

My assessment? Expect continued moderation. Prices might nudge down slightly more in some areas, particularly for properties that were overpriced during the boom. Sellers might need to be more realistic with their pricing and expectations. However, a widespread, dramatic price collapse seems unlikely given the underlying supply constraints and the region's economic importance. Think stabilization and perhaps minor corrections, not a crash.

A Peek into Late 2026 and Early 2027

Looking further out is even more speculative, but we can try to connect the dots.

If mortgage rates do ease towards the 6-6.5% range by mid-to-late 2026, as NAR suggests, this could stimulate demand. Combined with the ongoing (though slow) improvement in housing inventory, we might see:

  • Increased Sales Activity: More buyers could enter the market, leading to higher transaction volumes.
  • Slight Price Rebound: Depending on how much demand returns versus available supply, prices could start to tick up again modestly towards the end of 2026 and into early 2027. The Zillow forecast shows a slight uptick for San Jose by Nov 2026, which might be an early sign of this.
  • Continued Regional Differences: High-cost areas like San Francisco might still lag behind more affordable regions in terms of price growth.

However, if economic conditions worsen or interest rates stay stubbornly high, the slight price declines forecast by Zillow for the Bay Area could persist longer into 2027. The key factors to watch will be inflation, Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, and the overall health of the tech sector and wider economy.

Wrapping Up: Navigating the Bay Area Market

The Bay Area housing market forecast paints a picture of transition. We're moving away from the rapid appreciation of recent years towards a more balanced, albeit still expensive, market. Expect moderate price adjustments rather than drastic drops. For buyers, this might mean slightly better opportunities and perhaps less competition, especially if they can secure a decent mortgage rate. For sellers, patience and realistic pricing will be key.

It’s a complex market, and while data gives us guideposts, real estate always involves unique local factors. Staying informed and working with knowledgeable professionals is the best way to navigate whatever comes next.

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Also Read:

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  • Bay Area Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast
  • Bay Area Housing Market Booming! Median Prices Hit Record Highs
  • Most Expensive Housing Markets in California
  • SF Bay Area Housing Market Records 19% Sales Growth
  • Bay Area Housing Market Heats Up: Home Prices Soar 11.9%

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Bay Area, california, Home Price Forecast, Home Price Trends, Housing Market, Housing Market Forecast, housing market predictions

Austin vs. Raleigh: Which Tech Hub Has the Stronger Housing Market for Investors?

December 18, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Austin vs. Raleigh: Which Tech Hub Has the Stronger Housing Market for Investors?

For years, investors chasing tech money have looked at two Sun Belt superstars: Austin, Texas, and Raleigh, North Carolina. Both cities have rocketed up the rankings for population growth, job creation, and overall “cool factor.” But if you’re putting your hard-earned capital into property, you need to know which city gives you the better investment.

Austin vs. Raleigh: Which Tech Hub Has the Stronger Housing Market for Investors?

We aren't looking for the better place to live—we are looking for the strongest financial returns. So, let’s answer the million-dollar question right upfront: Austin vs. Raleigh: Which Tech Hub Offers Stronger Real Estate Returns?

The short answer, based on current affordability and market maturity, is that Raleigh, NC, currently offers a more sustainable and less volatile path to long-term returns, while Austin, TX, remains the higher-risk, higher-reward play that requires far more precise timing.

I’ve been tracking the incredible shifts in these competitive markets for over a decade, and what I’ve seen recently suggests that the rules have changed. Austin’s massive run-up has created hurdles, while Raleigh’s measured, diversified growth keeps making it an investor darling. Let’s dive deep into the specific dynamics that make these two cities fundamentally different when it comes to stacking up profit.

The Tale of Two Texas Towns (and the Other One in NC)

When we look at both metros, we are analyzing two distinct styles of economic development. Austin is the flashy newcomer; Raleigh is the quiet anchor.

Feature Austin, TX (The Rocket) Raleigh, NC (The Anchor)
Primary Growth Driver Corporate relocations (Tesla, Samsung, Oracle), Venture Capital (VC) funding. Research Triangle Park (RTP), Universities (UNC, Duke, NC State), Biotech/Pharma.
Market Maturity Highly mature, high prices, rapidly compressed yields. Maturing rapidly, but still maintains a significant affordability gap advantage over Austin.
Population Growth Rate Explosive (Historically among the fastest in the US). Very strong and steady.
State Tax Structure No state income tax. High property taxes. State income tax. Lower property taxes (generally).
Investment Profile Appreciation heavy (Capital Gains). Balanced (Appreciation + Cash Flow potential).

The Beast Under the Bridge: The Austin Model

When I think about investing in Austin, I think about momentum. For a long time, Austin couldn't lose. The city became the premier destination for tech workers fleeing California, driving prices up at an absolutely staggering rate.

The Volatility Factor

In real estate, growth often comes with a bill, and for Austin, that bill is volatility. We saw median prices soar by 40% in a single year during the peak pandemic boom. This level of rapid appreciation is thrilling, but it dramatically increases the risk of market correction—which is exactly what we saw when interest rates climbed.

My personal analysis of Austin's growth trajectory is that it mirrors markets that rely heavily on a constant injection of VC money and “big fish” corporate moves. When the tech sector hiccups or national interest rates rise, the brakes slam harder here than almost anywhere else.

The Property Tax Headache

One major fundamental difference that impacts long-term investment returns in Austin is the property tax situation. Texas prides itself on having no state income tax, but they make up for it aggressively at the local level.

If you are a buy-and-hold investor aiming for cash flow, those constantly rising property valuations mean your tax burden rises annually, often eating away at your net operating income (NOI). In markets like Dallas or Houston, you have higher rent-to-value ratios to absorb this, but in prime Austin, yield compression is severe. Many investors are simply betting on massive appreciation, effectively turning their rental property into an asset where the income is just enough to cover the massive operating costs. That is a dangerous, appreciation-only strategy.

The Steady Hand: The Raleigh/Research Triangle Model

Now let’s look east to Raleigh, the anchor of the Research Triangle Park (RTP), which includes Durham and Chapel Hill. Raleigh is not a new contender, but it didn't get the same blinding media spotlight as Austin, and that’s a good thing for investors.

The Power of Diversification

The key to Raleigh’s resilience is its foundation. Where Austin relies heavily on IT and venture-backed startups, Raleigh’s economy is built upon three pillars:

  1. Academia: The triangle is anchored by three major research universities (UNC, Duke, NC State) that generate a constant, highly educated talent pipeline.
  2. Government: As the state capital, Raleigh has a stable base of state and federal jobs that act as a buffer during recessions.
  3. Biotech and Pharma: The RTP is one of the world's leading centers for life sciences. These companies—think major, stable employers like Pfizer and Merck—are less susceptible to the immediate cyclical downturns that plague the pure tech sector.

When the 2022 market slowdown hit, Raleigh felt the cooling effects, but its descent was far more gentle and controlled than Austin’s sharp drop. Why? Because the job market didn't panic. The pharmaceutical companies still needed scientists, and the universities still needed staff. This translates directly into more stable housing demand.

The Affordability Advantage for Investors

This is the big one. Even after years of growth, Raleigh remains significantly more affordable than Austin, particularly when you look at median home price versus median rent.

In my professional opinion, the stronger the rent-to-value ratio, the stronger the long-term investment.

While Austin’s median prices pushed into the mid-six figures long ago, Raleigh has maintained better entry points. This means:

  • Lower initial capital outlay.
  • Better potential for positive cash flow from day one (or at least much sooner).
  • A wider tenant pool, as housing remains accessible to mid-level income earners, not just highly paid tech execs.

The Critical Factors: Where Investors Need to Look Beyond Price

To truly decide which market offers stronger returns, we have to look past the superficial trends and examine the regulatory and construction environment. This is where real expertise comes in.

1. The Inventory Battle (Permitting and Supply)

When a city has incredible demand, the smart response is to build, build, build. But Austin has had a massive supply problem, worsened by local permitting delays that made it difficult for housing supply to catch up with demand. Developers, driven by high prices, eventually rushed in.

Expert Insight: Austin has experienced a significant surge in multi-family and single-family permitting. While this is necessary, rapid, large-scale supply hitting the market during a slowdown leads to oversupply issues and potential pressure on rental rates. It’s a boom-and-bust cycle.

Raleigh, while also experiencing a construction boom, has maintained a more balanced development pace. This slower pace, while sometimes frustrating for renters, is beneficial for property owners because it prevents catastrophic supply gluts that kill rental price growth.

2. Taxation and Regulation: The State Matters

A common mistake new investors make is ignoring the regulatory differences between states.

Factor Texas (Austin) North Carolina (Raleigh) Impact on Returns
Income Tax 0% State Income Tax Progressive State Income Tax TX sounds better, but NC's slightly higher state taxes often fund better infrastructure, lowering city operational costs.
Property Tax High Rates (Often 2%+) Moderate Rates (Generally below 1.2%) NC wins here for cash flow investors. Lower annual operating expenses directly boost NOI.
Landlord/Tenant Law Generally Landlord-friendly Moderate, Moving toward balance Both states are relatively fair, but local ordinances (like short-term rental rules) must be watched closely.

My opinion is clear: for the long-term rental investor prioritizing cash flow stability, North Carolina’s lower property tax burden provides a foundational competitive advantage over Austin’s structure.

3. Demographic Flow and Wage Divergence

Both cities attract highly skilled workers, but Raleigh is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to wage arbitrage. Tech companies realize they can hire excellent engineers in Raleigh for 15-20% less than they would pay in Austin (or 30-40% less than in Silicon Valley). This allows businesses to expand aggressively without crippling payroll costs, ensuring the job machine keeps churning out new residents needing housing. This constant, slightly less expensive talent flow creates a highly stable rental demand base.

The Rubber Meets the Road: A Cash Flow Comparison

To make this tangible, let’s run a simple side-by-side calculation focusing on the cost of ownership, assuming two similar properties purchased as rentals in desirable sub-markets of each metro area. This example highlights the massive impact of property taxes on your Net Operating Income (NOI).

We will focus purely on the property tax and price differences, which are the main differentiators in annual cash flow for buy-and-hold investors.

Investment Metric Austin, TX (Approximate) Raleigh, NC (Approximate) Key Result for Investors
Purchase Price $550,000 $425,000 Raleigh requires $125k less capital.
Estimated Rent $2,800 / month $2,400 / month Austin rent is higher, but so is the price.
Effective Property Tax Rate 2.1% 1.1% This is the crucial difference.
Annual Property Tax Burden $11,550 $4,675 The silent killer of cash flow in Austin.
Annual Tax Difference N/A Saves $6,875 Raleigh investor pockets nearly $7k more annually before factoring in mortgage.
Monthly Tax Cost $962.50 $389.58 The Raleigh tax is nearly $600/month less.

Note: These figures are approximations used for comparative illustration and do not include mortgage, insurance, or maintenance costs.

What this calculation tells me, as an expert investor, is critical: Even though the Austin property rents for $400 more per month, the Raleigh investor’s annual property tax savings ($6,875) virtually wipes out that rental premium. The Raleigh property starts off with a vastly superior operational cost structure, making positive cash flow much easier to achieve and maintain, especially in the first few years.

The Rental Income Reality Check

The strongest returns are not just about sale price appreciation; they are about the total return—combining cash flow (rental income) and appreciation.

Austin's Compressed Yields

Due to the aggressive price increase, Austin’s cap rates (the ratio of Net Operating Income to property value) have plummeted. If you buy an expensive property but your rent barely covers the mortgage, insurance, and those heavy Texas property taxes, your yield is compressed, maybe even negative. You are effectively betting your entire return on the hope that someone will buy the property for even more money in five years.

Raleigh’s Cash Flow Potential

While Raleigh’s cap rates have also tightened, they are generally healthier than Austin’s, especially in secondary markets around RTP like Cary, Apex, or Durham. An investor in Raleigh has a much higher likelihood of achieving a small but reliable positive cash flow, providing a critical safety net against market dips.

I always advise investors to look for markets where you can be right two ways: through appreciation AND through cash flow. Raleigh provides a better opportunity to execute this dual strategy.

Investment Strategies for Each Market

Because these cities operate on different risk levels, your strategy needs to adapt:

Austin Strategy (High-Risk/High-Reward)

  • Target: Highly specialized niche properties (e.g., luxury rentals near Tesla Giga Factory, short-term rentals near downtown).
  • Focus: Capital preservation and appreciation, not immediate cash flow.
  • Best Play: Land speculation and new development in rapidly expanding submarkets (e.g., Leander, Georgetown) before they fully mature. Requires deep pockets and high risk tolerance.
  • Keywords to Track: Austin luxury housing supply, Central Texas commercial permitting, VC funding rounds.

Raleigh Strategy (Sustainable Growth)

  • Target: Single-family homes in established commuter corridors (e.g., close to I-40 access points) or townhomes near university campuses.
  • Focus: Balanced strategy—steady appreciation supplemented by reliable cash flow.
  • Best Play: Buying properties that appeal to the stable, highly educated workforce employed by RTP. This is the ultimate defensive position for real estate investing.
  • Keywords to Track: Raleigh-Durham biotech job growth, Wake County property tax rates, RTP employee headcount.

My Final Verdict on Returns

When comparing Austin vs. Raleigh: Which Tech Hub Offers Stronger Real Estate Returns, we must recognize that “stronger” doesn't just mean “highest peak.” It means the most consistent, resilient, and repeatable return profile.

Austin is like buying volatile tech stock; the gains can be huge, but the drops are sharp, and your entry point has to be perfect. Raleigh is like a blue-chip stock—steady, reliable, paying a decent dividend (cash flow) while slowly and surely increasing in value.

For the investor who values predictable cash flow, lower operating expenses, and resilient demand driven by diversified institutional anchors, Raleigh, NC, provides the stronger, more secure foundation for long-term real estate returns. Austin still has momentum, but its affordability crisis and tax structure mean the margin for error is razor-thin. Raleigh wins on fundamentals.

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Florida Housing Market Forecast 2026: Another Year of Price Correction

December 17, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Florida Housing Market: Home Price Forecast for 2026

The Florida housing market forecast points to a continued cooling in home prices in 2026, following several years where the Sunshine State's market has taken a different path than the rest of the country. According to the latest projections from Realtor.com®, we can expect a slight average dip in home prices across Florida's eight largest metro areas. While this might sound unnerving, it’s crucial to understand the nuances behind these numbers to make informed decisions.

As someone who has been following Florida's real estate trends closely, I’ve seen firsthand how dynamic and sometimes unpredictable this market can be. While national headlines might paint a broad picture, Florida often has its own unique story. This year, that story involves a shift from the feverish pace of recent years to a more balanced, and in some areas, declining price environment. However, this doesn't mean the dream of homeownership in Florida is out of reach; it simply means a more opportune time might be on the horizon for many buyers.

Florida Housing Market Forecast 2026: Another Year of Price Correction

Understanding the Trends: Why Florida is Different

For a while, Florida seemed to be on a rocket ship, with home prices soaring. But as Realtor.com® senior economist Joel Berner points out, “Florida has had a very different story than the national market over the past several years and a much different outlook.” The primary driver for this divergence seems to be a growing supply of homes hitting the market at a time when demand has softened somewhat.

I've noticed this myself when looking at inventory levels. We've seen a significant amount of new construction, which is fantastic for housing availability, but when combined with shifts in buyer behavior, it naturally leads to a recalibration of prices.

Metro-Level Projections: Where the Biggest Changes Might Happen

The Realtor.com® forecast offers a fascinating look at how different parts of Florida are expected to fare:

  • Average Decline: Across the eight largest metro areas, a projected average decrease of 1.9% in median sales prices for existing homes and condos is anticipated for 2026. This is notably lower than the expected national gain of 2.2%.
  • Miami: A Lone Star? Interestingly, Miami is the only one of these major markets projected to see a positive gain, with an estimated growth of 1.1%. This suggests a continued strong pull for properties in South Florida, perhaps driven by international buyers or a sustained demand for its lifestyle.
  • Gulf Coast Hit Hardest: The Gulf Coast regions are expected to experience the most significant price adjustments. Cape Coral faces a projected decline of 10.2%, followed by North Port at 8.9%, and Tampa at 3.6%. These areas saw substantial price increases previously, and a correction is not entirely unexpected.
  • Other Major Cities: Jacksonville (-1.4%), Orlando (-1.6%), and Palm Bay (-1%) are also anticipated to see modest price declines. Lakeland is projected to have a very small decrease of -0.2%.

The Condo Conundrum: A Major Influence on Prices

When I delve into the data, one thing becomes crystal clear: condos are playing a significant role in the overall price trends in Florida. Realtor.com® data shows that the weakness in the condo market is the main reason for the statewide price softness.

  • Condo Prices Down Sharply: In the first half of 2025, median listing prices for condos were down a significant 10.8% compared to the same period in 2023. For comparison, single-family home prices saw a smaller decline of 3.6% over the same timeframe.
  • Special Assessments and HOA Fees: A major factor impacting condo demand and prices appears to be the rising auxiliary costs of homeownership. Soaring insurance premiums and steep homeowners association (HOA) fees, especially for condos, have become a significant burden. Recent regulatory changes may have also led to an uptick in HOA special assessment fees, which can substantially impact a buyer's monthly expenses and the overall appeal of a condo.

Beyond Price Tags: The Cost of Ownership Matters

It’s not just the sticker price of a home that influences the market. As I mentioned, insurance costs and HOA fees are major concerns for Floridians. I know many homeowners who are feeling the pinch, and this directly affects how much they can afford or are willing to pay for a property.

Governor Ron DeSantis has even pushed for measures like the elimination of property taxes on owner-occupied homes as a potential solution to these rising costs. While such a move could theoretically boost home values, it requires significant political and voter backing, making its immediate impact uncertain.

Factors Shaping Demand and Supply

Several forces are at play in shaping Florida’s housing dynamics:

  • New Construction: The state has seen a high rate of new home building. While this increases the supply of homes, it can also lead to increased competition among builders and potentially put downward pressure on prices if demand doesn't keep pace.
  • Remote Work Slowdown: The surge in remote work during the pandemic fueled demand in places like Florida's “Sun Belt.” As more companies call employees back to the office, this demand driver may be waning, affecting the market.
  • Mortgage Rates: While high interest rates have been a deterrent, any relief on this front could stimulate demand by making it easier for renters to transition into homeownership. This could especially help first-time homebuyers.
  • Builder Response: In response to price cues and market conditions, builders are likely to slow down new construction. This proactive measure can help prevent a severe imbalance between supply and demand in the future.

Affordability: A Mixed Picture

Despite recent price dips, the overall affordability of single-family homes in Florida remains a concern.

  • Single-Family Homes: Even with price declines, the typical single-family home in Florida is listed at about six times the state's median household income for 2025. This is higher than the pre-pandemic average ratio of 5.6 times.
  • Condos: On the other hand, condos have become relatively more affordable. The ratio of condo listing prices to median income is projected to fall to about 4.4 in 2025, down from a pre-pandemic average of 4.6. This suggests that, based purely on listing price, condos are now a more attractive option than before COVID-19.

However, and this is a big caveat I always emphasize, the increased costs of insurance and HOA fees can significantly offset these affordability gains for condos. For buyers, it's crucial to look beyond the asking price and understand the total cost of ownership.

What This Means for You

For potential buyers, this Florida housing market forecast suggests a potential shift in power from sellers to buyers. In areas expecting price declines, there might be more room for negotiation. It could present a more opportune moment to enter the market, especially if you're looking for a single-family home and can absorb the associated ownership costs. For condo buyers, careful due diligence on insurance and HOA fee trends is paramount.

For sellers, the advice is to be realistic about pricing, especially in markets projected for declines. Understanding the local conditions and the specific type of property you're selling is key.

The Florida market is perpetually fascinating. While the forecast indicates a cooling period, it’s not a universal downturn. Miami's resilience and the ongoing affordability improvements in the condo market (when considering listing price alone) show the complexity. As always, staying informed with reliable data from sources like Realtor.com® and consulting with local real estate professionals is the best approach to navigating these evolving trends.

Florida’s Market Is Shifting—Investors Are Staying Ahead

From Cape Coral to Jacksonville, Florida’s housing market is evolving—but turnkey investors are locking in cash-flowing properties while prices and rents remain favorable.

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5 Predictions That Will Define the NYC Housing Market in 2026

December 16, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

5 Predictions That Will Define the NYC Housing Market in 2026

In 2026, I expect New York City homes to sell faster, but don't panic, buyers! We're likely to see more homes hitting the market, so it won't be the wild frenzy of a few years back. For renters, expect a tougher go with rents climbing higher, largely because we just don't have enough apartments to go around.

It's crunch time in NYC's housing market, and frankly, things are getting complicated. I've been keeping a close eye on this city for years, and the trends I'm seeing point to some big shifts ahead for 2026. Based on the latest insights from StreetEasy®, here’s what is on the horizon for both folks looking to buy and those who are renting:

5 Predictions That Will Define the NYC Housing Market in 2026

1. Homes Will Fly Off the Shelves (But There's Still Hope for Buyers!)

Picture this: homes in NYC are going to start selling quicker in 2026. We're talking about the highest number of sales we've seen since 2022! Why? Well, mortgage rates are expected to keep inching down, but they'll still be a bit higher than we'd all like, probably sticking above 6%. This is great news for sellers, and it means buyers will need to be ready to jump when they see something they like.

But here's the good part for buyers: unlike the craziness of 2021 and early 2022, you probably won't have to battle it out with a dozen other people for every single apartment. StreetEasy® data shows that new listings are on the rise, and we’re seeing more homes come onto the market than we have in a while. This means there should be enough good options out there to go around.

Quick Look at Sales Pace:

Year Median Days on Market Trend
2024 (Previous Year Data) Slower Pace
2025 68 days Declining
2026 Expected to decline further Faster Pace Expected

2. Sharing is Caring: Co-Buying on the Rise

Buying a home in NYC is tough. My gut feeling is that more and more people will team up to buy. StreetEasy® found that a huge chunk of folks looking to buy want to do it with someone else – maybe a partner, but increasingly, friends or family are stepping in. This idea of “third-way” ownership, where you buy with people you’re not romantically involved with, makes a lot of sense when prices are high and mortgages are a challenge.

Think about buying a duplex or a triplex: you get your own space, but you’re also sharing bills and making it a bit more affordable. Plus, with more older folks looking to downsize within the city, these kinds of multi-family homes are becoming super desirable.

  • 56% of prospective NYC buyers planned to buy with a co-buyer in a recent survey.
  • This includes buying with friends (9%) and relatives (6%), not just spouses.

However, finding affordable multi-family homes is like finding a needle in a haystack. We need more options, and maybe some smart changes to zoning laws could help create more of these flexible living spaces.

3. Rents Will Keep Climbing (Yep, It's Still Tough Out There)

While the rest of the country might see rents cool down, here in NYC, I predict they'll heat up. We’ve seen rents go up by almost 5% this year already, and with fewer apartments available and people staying put longer, that number is likely to climb even more in 2026.

Even though a bunch of new buildings have been popping up, it’s not enough to fix our massive housing shortage that’s been building for decades. Plus, with jobs feeling a little shaky for some and mortgage rates still high, more people will stay renting. This means more competition for apartments, and that always pushes prices up.

Key Factors for Renters in 2026:

  • Chronic undersupply: Not enough apartments for everyone.
  • Job security concerns: Making people hesitant to buy.
  • High mortgage rates: Keeping homeownership out of reach for many.
  • Declining vacancy rates: Fewer options mean more competition.

4. Forget “Luxury,” Think “New Build” for Affordability

This one might surprise you, but rentals in new buildings are actually starting to look like the more affordable option in 2026. Why? Because there are so many new ones being built, and landlords are using deals like free months of rent to fill them up. Meanwhile, rents in older buildings, especially in popular, well-connected neighborhoods, are skyrocketing.

Since 2019, rents in new buildings (after deals) have gone up about 20%, while older buildings have seen a 23.1% jump. This makes those shiny new apartments a more attractive bet, even if they’re a bit further out from the prime spots.

It's a clear sign: building more housing, whether new or by fixing up existing places, is the best way to tackle rising costs. It’s good to see the city finally making moves with things like the “City of Yes for Housing Opportunity” plan and new tax incentives, but there's still a long way to go.

5. Community is King: Renters Want More Than Just an Apartment

As homeownership slips further away for many, renters are staying renters for longer, and they're looking for more. StreetEasy® data shows the average age of renters is creeping up. This means people want their apartments to feel like home, and that includes having a sense of community and convenience.

New buildings are catching on. They’re adding more shared spaces like lounges, rooftop decks, party rooms, and even coworking spaces. It’s not just about having a roof over your head anymore; it’s about having a lifestyle. These communal areas are becoming a big selling point, and I think this trend will only get bigger.

What Renters are Looking For in New Buildings:

  • Lounges: 61% of newer buildings offer them.
  • Rooftop Decks: A staple in 63% of new rentals.
  • Coworking Areas: Nearly doubles in new buildings (19% vs. 11%).
  • Wellness Spas: Available in 29% of new construction.

It’s all about making rental buildings feel more like a neighborhood within themselves. Property managers who offer these kinds of amenities will definitely win out.

Want Stronger Returns? Invest Where the Housing Market’s Growing

Turnkey rental properties in fast-growing housing markets offer a powerful way to generate passive income with minimal hassle.

Work with Norada Real Estate to find stable, cash-flowing markets beyond the bubble zones—so you can build wealth without the risks of ultra-competitive areas.

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Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

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Los Angeles Housing Market Stumbles as Sales Volume See Notable Dip in November

December 16, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Los Angeles Housing Market Stumbles as Sales Volume See Notable Dip in November

The Los Angeles housing market in November 2025 saw a slight leveling off in prices year-over-year but a notable dip in sales volume, indicating a more cautious buyer sentiment, especially within the fiercely competitive Los Angeles County, despite a modest statewide recovery reported by C.A.R. It's a complicated picture, and I'm here to help you get a clearer view.

Los Angeles Housing Market Stumbles as Sales Volume See Notable Dip in November

I've been keeping a close eye on real estate in our golden state, and the latest numbers from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) for November 2025 really tell a story. While California as a whole seemed to pick up some steam, Los Angeles, particularly the areas I'm most familiar with, showed some different trends. Let's dig into what happened.

You see, statewide, C.A.R. noted that California home sales experienced their highest level since September 2022, climbing to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 287,940 units. That sounds great, right? Sales were up 1.9% from October and 2.6% from November last year. The statewide median home price was $852,680, which was essentially flat compared to November 2024.

But when I look specifically at the Los Angeles Metro Area and Los Angeles County, the picture gets a bit more nuanced, as it always does when we zoom into specific, diverse regions.

Sales Slowdown: A Closer Look at LA's Dip

Here's where Los Angeles really stands apart from the statewide trend. While California saw sales increase, our local market here in LA went the other way.

For the entire Los Angeles Metro Area, sales saw a significant drop of 23.5% from October to November 2025, and they were down 2.7% compared to November 2024. When we narrow it down even further to Los Angeles County itself, the sales figures were even more stark: a hefty 27.6% decrease month-over-month and a 5.4% dip year-over-year.

Area Sales MTM % Change (Nov 2025) Sales YTY % Change (Nov 2025)
California (Statewide) +1.9% +2.6%
Los Angeles Metro Area -23.5% -2.7%
Los Angeles County -27.6% -5.4%

My take on this? It’s not just a blip. This kind of drop, especially against a statewide gain, tells me that buyers in LA are becoming increasingly cautious. Perhaps the high entry price points here make even small swings in interest rates feel more impactful, or maybe it's just that the traditional “off-peak” season affects a dense, high-value market like LA more acutely. Buyers might be waiting for a clearer sign of price stability or more favorable lending conditions.

Median Prices: Holding Steady, But With Caveats

Now, let’s talk about prices. This is usually the first thing everyone asks me about!

The statewide median home price in November 2025 was virtually unchanged from a year ago, sitting at $852,680. However, it did see a 3.9% drop from October.

In the Los Angeles Metro Area, the median price came in at $823,000. This was up slightly by 0.1% from November 2024, but it saw a 2.6% decrease from October 2025.

Zooming into Los Angeles County, the median sale price for November 2025 was a hefty $942,610. This represents a 0.6% year-over-year increase from $937,030 in November 2024. However, like the metro area, it experienced a month-over-month decline of 1.9% from October's $960,620.

Area Median Price (Nov 2025) Price MTM % Change Price YTY % Change
California (Statewide) $852,680 -3.9% 0.0%
Los Angeles Metro Area $823,000 -2.6% 0.1%
Los Angeles County $942,610 -1.9% 0.6%

What does this tell me? While prices in LA County are still experiencing modest year-over-year gains, the month-to-month dips indicate a real sensitivity in the market. Sellers might still have aspirational prices, but buyers are less willing to jump without clear justification. It feels like the market is searching for its footing after a volatile period, finding a new equilibrium where prices aren't soaring but aren't collapsing either. It's a delicate balance.

Inventory and Time on Market: A Shift in Power?

Beyond just sales and prices, I always look at how much inventory is out there and how long homes are sitting. These are crucial indicators of who has the upper hand: buyers or sellers.

  • The statewide Unsold Inventory Index (UII) was 3.6 months in November 2025, up from 3.3 months a year prior. It suggests homes are taking longer to sell.
  • The median time on market statewide was 32 days, up from 26 days in November 2024.

For Los Angeles Metro Area:

  • The Unsold Inventory Index stood at 3.9 months, up from 3.6 months in November 2024.
  • Homes stayed on the market for a median of 36 days, compared to 29 days a year earlier.

In Los Angeles County:

  • The Unsold Inventory Index was 3.8 months, an increase from 3.5 months in November 2024.
  • The median time on market was 33 days, up from 26 days in November 2024.
Area Unsold Inventory Index (Nov 2025) Median Days on Market (Nov 2025) Days on Market (Nov 2024)
California (Statewide) 3.6 months 32 days 26 days
Los Angeles Metro Area 3.9 months 36 days 29 days
Los Angeles County 3.8 months 33 days 26 days

From my perspective, this is a clear signal that the frantic, hyper-competitive seller's market we've seen in recent years has definitely cooled down. Increased inventory means more options for buyers. Longer days on market mean buyers have more time to think, negotiate, and — importantly — conduct due diligence without feeling pressured into a bidding war. This creates more reasonable conditions, which, as a human, I appreciate. For sellers, it means patience and realistic pricing are more important than ever. The sales-price-to-list-price ratio statewide was 98.3%, which tells me that, on average, homes are selling for slightly below their asking price—a definite shift from the days of homes routinely going over asking.

Behind the Numbers: My Take on What’s Really Happening

Pulling back the curtain, these statistics aren't just figures; they represent real people making major life decisions. Here's what I believe is truly at play in the Los Angeles housing market.

Affordability Remains King (or Queen)

Let's be frank: Los Angeles is expensive. Even with statewide mortgage rates averaging 6.24% in November 2025 (down from 6.81% a year prior), the sheer price tag of an LA home is still a massive hurdle. For many first-time homebuyers, and even those looking to move up, the monthly payments on a $942,610 median-priced home in Los Angeles County are simply astronomical, especially when combined with high property taxes and insurance.

I've spoken with countless potential buyers who are qualified on paper but are simply unwilling to stretch themselves thin, especially with other economic uncertainties. The slight year-over-year price appreciation in LA—while statewide prices were flat—only compounds this issue. This ongoing affordability crunch is, in my professional opinion, the biggest differentiating factor for LA compared to other parts of California.

Mortgage Rates: A Double-Edged Sword

C.A.R.'s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine suggests that mortgage rates are expected to continue declining in 2026, but the decrease is unlikely to be dramatic. I agree with this assessment. While lower rates are certainly a welcome relief, they're not a silver bullet for LA.

Think of it this way: if you're looking at a $500,000 house, a half-point drop in interest might save you a few hundred dollars a month, making a real difference. But on a million-dollar home, that same percentage drop might save you more, but the total payment is still very high. It means that while falling rates can spur activity in more affordable markets, their impact is diluted in an ultra-high-cost market like Los Angeles. Buyers here need more than just slightly lower rates; they need a significant shift in either prices or rates to feel comfortable again.

Local Differences: LA County vs. LA Metro

It's subtle in the data, but important to highlight: the Los Angeles Metro Area includes a wider swath of Southern California, potentially bringing down the median price. But Los Angeles County itself, with its diverse array of neighborhoods from Beverly Hills to the San Gabriel Valley, consistently boasts a higher median home price than the broader metro region, and even the statewide average.

For instance, the LA Metro Area median price was $823,000, while LA County was $942,610. This tells me that within the county, you're dealing with arguably the most sought-after and expensive real estate in the state, even more so than many other parts of the larger metro area. My experience shows that micro-markets within LA County can behave very differently based on factors like school districts, commute times, and local amenities. It's never a one-size-fits-all situation here.

Looking Ahead: My Predictions for the Los Angeles Housing Market

Based on C.A.R.'s projections and my own feel for the pulse of Los Angeles, I believe we're heading into a period of continued stabilization rather than dramatic swings.

I expect to see mild, gradual price appreciation in Los Angeles County, possibly slightly outpacing the broader metro area due to its premium nature. Sales volume will likely remain somewhat constrained by affordability, but as mortgage rates ease further, we might see a slow uptick in buyer activity. Inventory will probably fluctuate, responding to both buyer demand and seller expectations.

The unique resilience of Los Angeles, driven by its diverse economy, cultural appeal, and limited land, means that even in slower markets, demand underpins value. It's a market that challenges, but for those who understand its intricacies, it still offers incredible opportunities. My advice? Stay informed, work with experienced professionals, and align your expectations with the current reality of this fascinating and ever-evolving market.

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Recommended Read:

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  • Los Angeles Housing Market: Forecast and Trends 2025-2026
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  • Minimum Qualifying Income to Buy a House in Los Angeles is $219,200
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  • Unveiled: The Top 5 Richest Cities in Los Angeles County You Need to Know About
  • Minimum Qualifying Income to Buy a House in Los Angeles is $219,200

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Los Angeles

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