The budget shenanigans in Washington so far haven't had an effect on the recovery, but an extended period of lower government spending and job cuts will quickly lead to economic stagnation.

The economy is a self-reinforcing mechanism, a small dip in growth will be followed by further declines, even if the first dip was meant to be temporary. With jobs growing at a very modest rate, it won't take much to bring growth to a halt.

Aside from the very real possibility of a government-induced slowdown, the economy is doing well – in the modern sense that it's growing modestly. The number of jobs in February was 1.5 percent higher than last year, a small improvement over recent months, and unemployment fell to 7.7 percent. As usual, the heavy lifting was done by the health care sector – jobs up 2.1 percent – and business services, where jobs increased 2.8 percent. Government jobs were essentially flat, and retail jobs were up 1.8 percent.

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Home construction rarely matches the actual demand for new homes, which can change quickly – there's often too much or too little. Because the US population grows one percent per year about 1.5 million new homes are needed every year. During the boom of the mid-2000s, two million homes were built per year; at the bottom of the bust, that number was 600,000.

In 2012, construction was up to 800,000 homes. This is a clear indicator that demand is even higher and will continue higher for years. Home prices will be rising even when more construction takes place. The economic effect is self-reinforcing because most of the cost of building a new home is in the wages paid to the workers, who in turn can afford a better home for themselves or spend money on cars and other stuff.

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