Mortgage rates on July 31, 2025, are showing a slight decline for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, dropping by 2 basis points to 6.84% from the previous week's 6.86%, according to Zillow's latest data. The 15-year fixed rate remains steady at 5.90%, while the 5-year ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) decreased slightly to 7.63%.

In refinance rates, the 30-year fixed refinance rate fell by 6 basis points to 7.00%, and the 15-year fixed refinance rate also dropped to 5.84%. Overall, mortgage and refinance rates are showing mild decreases or stability after the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady in July 2025.

Today's Mortgage Rates July 31, 2025: 30-Year FRM Sees a Slight Decline After Fed's Decision

Key Takeaways:

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate down slightly to 6.84% from last week's 6.86%.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate steady at 5.90%.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate decreased to 7.63%.
• 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped to 7.00%.
• Fed held interest rates steady in July 2025, impacting borrowing costs indirectly.
• Mortgage rates are more linked to the 10-year Treasury yield than directly to Fed rate decisions.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) may respond more quickly to Federal Reserve rate changes.

Overview of Today's Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been relatively stable this week with minor decreases noted in key loan types. The most popular mortgage — the 30-year fixed-rate loan — is now averaging 6.84%, which is a slight drop of 2 basis points from 6.86% the previous week. This rate is still higher compared to historical lows seen years ago but reflects current economic conditions influenced by inflation, treasury yields, and Fed policy.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate remains unchanged at 5.90%. Fixed-rate mortgages provide stability for borrowers wanting consistent monthly payments over the life of the loan. ARMs, which adjust rates periodically, show a small decline in the 5-year ARM rate (down 2 basis points to 7.63%).

Table 1: Current National Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Type	Interest Rate	Weekly Change (bps)	APR
30-Year Fixed	6.84%	-0.02%	7.28%
15-Year Fixed	5.90%	0.00%	6.19%
5-Year ARM	7.63%	-0.02%	7.92%
20-Year Fixed	6.61%	+0.23%	7.12%
7-Year ARM	7.56%	+0.80%	7.81%

This table shows that while the 30-year fixed and 5-year ARM rates ticked down, some other products like the 20-year fixed and 7-year ARM saw modest increases.

Refinance Rates as of July 31, 2025

For homeowners considering refinancing, the average 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped from 7.06% last week to 7.00% today—a 6 basis points decrease. This slight decline could provide some relief for homeowners looking to reduce monthly payments or shorten loan terms by refinancing. Likewise, the 15-year fixed refinance rate fell by 6 basis points to 5.84%, and the 5-year ARM refinance rate decreased to 7.87%.

Table 2: National Average Refinance Rates

Refinance Type	Interest Rate	Weekly Change (bps)
30-Year Fixed Refi	7.00%	-0.06
15-Year Fixed Refi	5.84%	-0.06
5-Year ARM Refi	7.87%	-0.04

These refinance rate changes reflect mild market adjustments but show a general downward trend in borrowing costs for refinancing, which could encourage some borrowers to explore this option.

Federal Reserve's Role and Its Impact on Mortgage Rates

In July 2025, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Although there was some speculation about a potential rate cut, the Fed maintained its current level citing ongoing concerns about inflation and employment data (CNBC, Fox Business).

How this matters for mortgages:

• The federal funds rate mainly influences short-term interest rates like credit cards and personal loans directly.
• Mortgage rates, especially fixed-rate loans, are more indirectly influenced and tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield's movement. Investors' expectations around inflation and economic growth weigh more heavily on mortgage rates.
• When the Fed holds rates steady, mortgage rates often remain stable or show slight movements reflecting broader economic factors rather than abrupt changes due to Fed policy.
• For ARMs, a higher federal funds rate can lead to increased rates when adjustments occur, as these loans are tied more directly to short-term interest rates.

Thus, today's small decrease in mortgage and refinance rates is less about the Fed's decision and more about ongoing market adjustments and investor sentiment.

Breaking Down Mortgage Rate Trends by Loan Type

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage: Most homebuyers choose the 30-year fixed mortgage for its predictability and manageable monthly payments spread over three decades. At 6.84%, this rate has nudged down slightly over the last week but remains elevated compared to historical lows of around 3% to 4% seen before 2022. This reflects inflation control efforts and economic uncertainty.
• 15-Year Fixed Mortgage: The 15-year fixed mortgage shows stability at 5.90%. This loan term offers faster principal repayment and lower total interest paid versus the 30-year fixed but usually comes with higher monthly payments, appealing to borrowers who want to build home equity faster.
• Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): The 5-year ARM declined slightly to 7.63%. ARMs often start with lower initial interest rates but adjust periodically after a fixed period based on an index plus a margin. Thus, they can be sensitive to interest rate changes, especially short-term rates influenced by Fed policy.

An interesting note is the 7-year ARM rate increasing by 0.80 basis points this week, signaling some variability in that segment of the market.

Example Calculation: Monthly Payment Impact

Let's compare monthly payments for a $350,000 loan amount under different current rate scenarios to illustrate the cost differences.

Loan Type	Interest Rate	Monthly Principal & Interest Payment*
30-Year Fixed	6.84%	$2,269
15-Year Fixed	5.90%	$2,866
5-Year ARM (est.)	7.63%	$2,533 (initial period)

*Calculation based on principal and interest only, excluding taxes, insurance, or other costs.

This example shows the trade-off between loan term and interest cost. The 15-year fixed has a higher monthly payment but less overall interest paid, whereas the 30-year fixed is lower monthly but higher total interest.

Understanding the Weekly Rate Changes and Why They Matter

Mortgage rate movements tend to be incremental and influenced by many factors:

• Investor demand for U.S. Treasury securities: Higher demand lowers yields, which can lower mortgage rates.
• Inflation expectations: When investors expect inflation to rise, yields on 10-year Treasuries rise, pushing mortgage rates higher.
• Economic indicators: Job growth, consumer spending, and GDP all influence market sentiment and mortgage pricing.
• Fed policy statements: While the Fed directly controls short-term rates, its communications and economic outlook influence long-term rates indirectly.

Government-Backed Loans

Government loans such as FHA and VA loans, designed to help specific homebuyers, have their own rate trends:

Program	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year FHA Fixed	7.05%	Down 0.36%
30-Year VA Fixed	6.32%	No change
15-Year FHA Fixed	5.63%	Up 0.12%
15-Year VA Fixed	5.84%	Down 0.01%

Rates here reflect program terms and risk levels, with VA loans generally lower due to government guarantees.

Market and Personal Experience Insights

Having observed mortgage market cycles, these small weekly rate shifts are quite typical. The slight declines in fixed-rate loans this week might encourage some buyers and refinancers who have been waiting for a dip. However, given the Fed’s cautious stance and inflation concerns, I anticipate mortgage rates will stay within a narrow range in the coming weeks unless there’s a significant economic surprise.

The relative stability in the 15-year fixed and moderate changes in ARMs also suggest borrowers are balancing the cost against flexibility and term length carefully.

As of today, July 30, 2025, mortgage rates remain largely stable, with the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage holding at 6.84%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from 6.86% last week, according to Zillow. Refinance rates for 30-year fixed loans are just a smidge higher than last week at 7.09%. Meanwhile, 15-year mortgage rates inched up slightly for purchases but went down a bit for refinancing.

This overall steadiness occurs amid Federal Reserve signals to keep interest rates steady this summer, although small shifts in adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and government loans have been noted. Homebuyers and homeowners seeking refinancing will find today's mortgage rates to be reflective of a stable but cautious housing finance environment influenced by evolving economic conditions and Fed monetary policy.

Mortgage Rates Today July 30, 2025: Rates Hold Steady Ahead of Crucial Fed Meeting

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Stable at 6.84%, down slightly by 0.02% from last week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate: Up marginally to 5.90% for purchases; refinance 15-year fixed slightly down to 5.92%.
• 5-year ARM rates: Purchase ARM rates fell to 7.58%, while refinance ARM rates dropped to 7.91%.
• FHA 30-year fixed rates sharply decreased to 6.00%, down by 1.40% from the previous week.
• Federal Reserve signals steady rates for now, with no immediate cuts expected in today's meeting.
• Market sentiment indicates a cautious outlook with inflation and employment data influencing mortgage rate trends.
• Home sales and price growth are expected to slow modestly in 2025–2026 but remain positive overall.
• Refinancing demand remains robust with refinance rates close to purchase rates.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview (July 30, 2025)

Mortgage Type	Rate (%)	Weekly Change	APR (%)	Weekly Change
Conventional Loans
30-Year Fixed	6.84	Down 0.01%	7.31	Down 0.01%
20-Year Fixed	6.61	Up 0.23%	7.12	Up 0.34%
15-Year Fixed	5.90	No change	6.20	No change
10-Year Fixed	5.94	Up 0.19%	6.34	Up 0.22%
7-Year ARM	7.56	Up 0.80%	7.81	Up 0.15%
5-Year ARM	7.58	Down 0.15%	7.92	Down 0.10%

 

Mortgage Type	Rate (%)	Weekly Change	APR (%)	Weekly Change
Government Loans
30-Year Fixed FHA	6.00	Down 1.40%	7.01	Down 1.43%
30-Year Fixed VA	6.30	Down 0.02%	6.45	Down 0.08%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.63	Up 0.12%	6.59	Up 0.08%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.92	Up 0.07%	6.18	Down 0.02%

Source: Zillow

Current Refinance Rates Overview (July 30, 2025)

Refinance Type	Rate (%)	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refi	7.09	Down 0.01%
15-Year Fixed Refi	5.92	Down 0.01%
5-Year ARM Refi	7.91	Down 0.04%

Refinance rates remain close to purchase rates, with minor declines providing some relief for homeowners looking to refinance.

What’s Driving Today’s Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates today, including for home purchases and refinancing, are importantly influenced by broader economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies. After late 2024 rate cuts by the Fed, the federal funds rate currently holds steady around 4.25%-4.5%, with further rate cuts expected but not guaranteed this year. The Fed’s indication to hold rates steady at their July 2025 meeting reflects caution amid weak labor market signals and moderate inflation pressures.

President Trump's earlier calls for rate cuts to ease government debt costs remain a contentious topic within Fed circles. The Fed prefers a data-driven approach, wary of inflation risks partially linked to tariffs. These economic considerations cause mortgage rates to hover in the mid to high sixes for fixed loans, with some volatility in adjustable-rate options.

Additionally, the housing market itself plays a role: home sales forecasts predict a slight slowdown to about 4 million homes sold in 2025, slightly below 2024’s figures, with home price growth slowing to 2.5%. The cooling demand reduces upward mortgage rate pressure but aligns with the Fed’s gradual easing cycle.

Federal Reserve’s Impact on Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve's monetary decisions echo directly in the mortgage rate environment. Since the pandemic, the Fed has shifted from near-zero rates to multiple hikes, followed by cautious cuts last year, seeking balance between inflation control and growth support.

• Late 2024: Three rate cuts lowered the fund rate by 1 percentage point to the current level.
• 2025 Forecast: The Fed signals two more rate reductions expected but remains split on when.
• Economic factors: Inflation, tariff-related price pressures, and slowing economic growth all impact Fed decisions.
• Mortgage rate projections: Analysts expect current mid to high 6% mortgage rates to gradually decline to near 5% by 2028 if inflation eases.

Bond markets currently assign a low probability (~5%) of a July 2025 rate cut, leaning more toward cuts later in the year.

Comparing Fixed-Rate Mortgages to Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

Today’s data show that fixed-rate loans remain the dominant choice for borrowers seeking predictable payments, with 30-year fixed loans stable at 6.84%. However, some borrowers might consider ARMs given their slightly fluctuating rates:

• 5-year ARM purchase rate: 7.58%, down by 3 basis points from last week.
• 7-year ARM purchase rate: Up notably by 80 basis points to 7.56%.

While ARMs often start with lower initial rates, their adjustments introduce uncertainty. The recent jump in the 7-year ARM suggests tighter market conditions or lender caution.

FHA and VA Loan Rates: What You Should Know

Government-backed loans through FHA and VA programs often present lower initial rates or easier qualifying criteria:

• FHA 30-year fixed rate dropped significantly to 6.00% (down 1.40%), a notable decrease likely to attract more buyers.
• VA 30-year fixed rate held steady near 6.30%, slightly down from last week.

These loans remain attractive for first-time homebuyers or those with less-than-perfect credit and can sometimes offer lower monthly payments despite similar APRs.

Example: Comparing Monthly Payments on a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

Let’s compare a typical mortgage payment today for a $300,000 loan using two rate scenarios:

Rate	Monthly Payment (Principal & Interest)
6.84%	$1,946
7.06%	$2,006

A 0.22% rate difference translates to about $60 per month, or $720 annually — significant over the life of a loan.

Longer-Term Mortgage Rate Forecast

Industry forecasts by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest:

• Average mortgage rates will stay around 6.5%-6.8% through late 2025.
• Slight declines are expected in 2026 as inflation eases and monetary policy loosens.
• By 2028, rates could approach 5% if economic conditions stabilize.

This forecast aligns with economic growth projections of 1.4% GDP growth for 2025 and a slow but steady increase in home prices.

Housing Market and Mortgage Rate Interaction

Mortgage rates significantly influence buyer behavior and home prices:

• Higher rates mean higher monthly payments, reducing affordability.
• Slower home sales forecast for 2025 reflect buyer caution amid current rates.
• Price growth slowing to 2.5% helps counterbalance rate pressures for buyers.

My Perspective

Given today’s rate environment and economic outlook, I view the current mortgage rates as a plateau after months of fluctuation. The Fed walks a tightrope between managing inflation and supporting growth, resulting in a cautious but stable mortgage market. Buyers should watch the Federal Reserve announcements closely in coming months. Even small shifts of 0.10%-0.20% in rate can impact affordability and refinancing decisions.

Refinance applicants, while facing rates slightly higher than purchase rates, may still find value due to potential loan term restructuring or cash-out possibilities. Government loans like FHA now offer comparatively attractive fixed rates that could benefit many.

This period is not excitingly low-rate like the pandemic era, but rates below 7% might still be manageable in the context of current incomes and home prices, especially given expected slowing home price increases.

Summary Tables of July 30, 2025 Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Loan Type	Purchase Rate (%)	Weekly Change	Refinance Rate (%)	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed	6.84	Down 0.02%	7.09	Down 0.01%
15-Year Fixed	5.90	Up 0.01%	5.92	Down 0.01%
5-Year ARM	7.58	Down 0.03%	7.91	Down 0.04%
FHA 30-Year Fixed	6.00	Down 1.40%	N/A	N/A
VA 30-Year Fixed	6.30	Down 0.02%	N/A	N/A

As of today, July 29, 2025, mortgage rates have shown mixed but mostly slight increases. The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 3 basis points from 6.90% to 6.87% on Tuesday, according to Zillow’s latest data. However, it has edged up slightly to 6.87% this week, a modest increase from last week's 6.86%.

Refinancing rates tell a similar story, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate also rising slightly from 7.06% to 7.08%. These small shifts indicate that the mortgage market is relatively steady but leans slightly higher in the short term, largely influenced by expectations around Federal Reserve policies and economic forecasts.

Today's Mortgage Rates – July 29, 2025: 30-Year FRM Drops, Refinance Rates Rise

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.87%, up 1 basis point from the previous week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rates increased marginally to 5.97%, showing a 3 basis point rise.
• 5-year ARM rates climbed slightly to 7.72%.
• Refinance rates moved similarly, with the 30-year refinance rate going up to 7.08% and the 15-year refinance rate falling a bit to 5.89%.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady in its July meeting to be held today and tomorrow, which may keep mortgage rates stable in the near future.
• Economic forecasts anticipate mortgage rates to remain in the mid-6% range for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
• Small rate changes are impacting housing affordability but not drastically shifting the market landscape.

Detailed Overview of Mortgage Rates Today: July 29, 2025

Mortgage rates are closely tied to economic conditions, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Currently, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the most common loan type for homebuyers, has edged slightly upward to 6.87%. This is a tiny increase of 1 basis point (0.01%) since last week. The 15-year fixed rate, favored for quicker payoff and lower interest costs, rose by 3 basis points to 5.97%. Variable rates like the 5-year ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) also increased marginally to 7.72%.

Mortgage Rates by Loan Type

The following table summarizes the key mortgage rates as of July 29, 2025:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change (Basis Points)	APR*	APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.87%	+1	7.34%	+2
20-Year Fixed	6.32%	-6	6.80%	+2
15-Year Fixed	5.97%	+3	6.28%	+7
10-Year Fixed	5.94%	+19	6.34%	+22
7-Year ARM	7.56%	+80	7.81%	+15
5-Year ARM	7.72%	-1	8.03%	0

*APR stands for Annual Percentage Rate, which includes fees and other costs to give a fuller picture of loan cost.

Government-Backed Loans

Government loans continue to present slightly different rates, influenced by program-specific factors.

Government Loan Program	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	APR Change
30-Year Fixed FHA	7.25%	-15 bps	8.29%	-15 bps
30-Year Fixed VA	6.41%	+10 bps	6.63%	+11 bps
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.48%	-3 bps	6.49%	-2 bps
15-Year Fixed VA	5.89%	+4 bps	6.24%	+4 bps

Where FHA stands for Federal Housing Administration loans, and VA loans denote Department of Veterans Affairs-backed mortgages.

Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates Outlook

Refinancing remains an important part of the mortgage market, allowing homeowners to potentially reduce monthly payments or access equity. As of today, the 30-year fixed refinance rate slightly decreased by 3 basis points this Tuesday to 7.08%, but remains 2 basis points higher than last week. The 15-year fixed refinance rate dropped 5 basis points to 5.89%, and the 5-year ARM refinance rate has gone down 6 basis points to 7.91%.

Refinance Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.08%	-3 bps
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.89%	-5 bps
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.91%	-6 bps

Why Are Mortgage Rates Slightly Rising?

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming July meeting strongly influences mortgage markets. President Donald Trump had urged the Fed to cut interest rates by several points to boost economic growth. However, economic analysts widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady this week. This likely means a period of relative stability for mortgage rates in the near term.

Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates to end 2025 near 6.5%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates hovering around 6.7% through September 2025, stabilizing near 6.3% through 2026. Morgan Stanley and Realtor.com forecasts expect slow easing or marginal dips but nothing drastic, as inflation risks and economic growth remain significant factors.

Mortgage Rates Impact on Monthly Payments

To put rates into perspective, consider the impact on monthly payments for a $500,000 home loan:

Interest Rate	Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
6.87%	$3,317
6.50%	$3,161
7.00%	$3,327

(Using a 30-year fixed loan amortization formula)

Even small percentage changes in rates translate into significant monthly costs, which directly affects housing affordability for many buyers.

Expert Opinion and Market Sentiment

From my experience analyzing this market, the slight uptick in rates reflects ongoing caution by lenders and investors who are watching inflation and economic data closely. While rising rates can deter some potential buyers, the careful balance maintained by the Federal Reserve suggests the market will not see sharp spikes anytime soon.

Homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to remain relatively high compared to historical lows seen in previous years but fairly stable across the coming months. The refinance market is more dynamic with some borrowers able to edge down their rates, especially on shorter-term loans.

Summary Tables: Mortgage and Refinance Rates Overview

Rate Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change
30-year fixed mortgage	6.87%	+1 bp
15-year fixed mortgage	5.97%	+3 bps
5-year ARM mortgage	7.72%	+2 bps
30-year fixed refinance	7.08%	-3 bps
15-year fixed refinance	5.89%	-5 bps
5-year ARM refinance	7.91%	-6 bps

The overall takeaway for July 29, 2025, is that mortgage and refinance rates have experienced small, incremental increases this week, signaling a cautious but steady environment for prospective buyers and homeowners looking to refinance. Fed policies and economic factors will continue to play a critical role in shaping where rates head next.

Are you wondering about mortgage rate predictions for the next 30 days? As of July 21, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 6.78%. My prediction is that mortgage rates will likely stay relatively stable over the next 30 days, fluctuating slightly between 6.5% and 7%. Significant drops are not expected unless the Federal Reserve takes unexpected action or significant economic data changes the market expectations. Let's dive deeper into the factors influencing these predictions and what it means for you.

Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 30 Days: What to Expect

As of July 21, 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at around 6.78%. This is a slight dip from 6.81% just a few days earlier on July 16. Interestingly, rates have been below 7% for the past 26 weeks! This suggests that while there are ups and downs, the mortgage market has been somewhat steady.

To give you a clearer picture, here's how the rates have been trending lately:

• June 2025: Averaged around 6.72%
• Mid-July 2025 (around July 17): Increased slightly to 6.75%

This small variation is due to a mix of things like worries about the economy, the rate of inflation, and what the Federal Reserve is planning.

A Quick History Lesson on Mortgage Rates

To truly understand where we are now, it helps to look back a bit. Mortgage rates have had a wild ride! Remember way back in January 2021? That's when rates hit an all-time low of 2.65%. The Federal Reserve chopped interest rates down to 0% to help the economy recover after the start of the pandemic.

Since then, rates have been climbing because prices on everything have been rising (inflation) and the Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates to try to cool things down. Now, in 2025, we've settled into a range between the mid-6% to low-7%.

To summarise the past month, please check the table below:

Date	30-Year Fixed Rate (%)
June 1, 2025	6.72
June 15, 2025	6.72
July 1, 2025	6.75
July 16, 2025	6.81
July 21, 2025	6.78

What's Behind the Mortgage Rate Rollercoaster?

Lots of different factors come into play when it comes to figuring out where rates are going. Let's take a look at some of the big ones:

• Inflation: When the cost of everything from groceries to gas goes up (which is what inflation is!), interest rates often climb as well. The Federal Reserve tries to slow down the economy when inflation gets too high. If you pay attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), you'll get a good sense of where inflation is headed. Also, recent tariffs (taxes on imported goods) could make inflation worse, potentially causing higher interest rates.
• Federal Reserve Policies: The Federal Reserve (or “the Fed”) is a big player. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on the federal funds rate. That rate influences mortgage rates. The FOMC has a big meeting coming up on July 29-30, 2025. Many experts think they'll hold off on cutting rates because, as mentioned above, of worries about inflation caused by tariffs.
• Bond Market Shenanigans: Mortgage rates tend to closely follow what's happening with 10-year Treasury bonds. If lots of people start buying these bonds, then bond yields can go up or down, which can affect mortgage rates.
• The Economy: How well the economy is doing also matters. If things are looking good (lots of jobs, for example), rates might go up. If the economy seems to be slowing down, rates might dip. Right now, the job market is looking pretty strong, which might push rates slightly upward.
• Global Events: Things happening around the world can also have an impact. For example, trade disagreements, like tariffs, can make the market uncertain.

Mark Your Calendar: Key Events to Watch

Keep an eye on these upcoming events, as they could have an effect on mortgage rates:

• FOMC Meeting (July 29-30, 2025): Many expect the Federal Reserve to pause on cutting rates. If the Fed sounds optimistic about the economy, rates might go up a bit. But if they sound worried, rates could stay the same or even drop a little.
• Economic Data Releases:
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): This report shows how fast prices are rising (inflation).
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): This tracks inflation at the wholesale level.
  • Employment Data: Watch for the Non-Farm Payroll report and the unemployment rate. This data gives us an idea of how healthy the economy is.

These reports usually come out early in August and could cause the market to move around, impacting mortgage rates.

Here is a quick summary of key events:

Event	Date	Potential Impact on Rates
FOMC Meeting	July 29-30, 2025	Potential for small increases or stability based on Fed tone.
Consumer Price Index	Early August 2025	Influence on inflation and Fed actions.
Producer Price Index	Early August 2025	Influence on inflation and Fed actions.
Employment Data	Early August 2025	Influence on inflation and Fed actions.

What's the Outlook for the Next 30 Days?

Okay, so let's put all this together and see if we can get a clearer picture of what to expect in the coming weeks.

The overall consensus seems to be that mortgage rates will likely remain relatively stable. While the recent dip is encouraging, I don't expect a dramatic drop in the next 30 days. Here’s what experts are predicting:

• Moderation and Stability: Mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable and moderate throughout July.
• “Higher for Longer” Environment: Expect mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% for the rest of 2025.
• A “Wait and See” Approach: The Fed will likely monitor the economic data before making any decisions on rate cuts at its July meeting.
• Inflation Concerns: These remain a key factor in keeping rates elevated. Trade measures and geopolitical events contribute to market volatility and could exert upward pressure on rates.

Considering the Fed's cautious stance, and the potential for inflation to remain sticky, it's more likely that rates will stay within the 6.5% to 7% range for the next month.

What the Experts Are Saying:

So, what do the experts think about the next month? Let's check out what several trusted sources say:

• Bankrate: For the week of July 17-23, 2025, half of the experts surveyed think rates will rise, about 31% predict they'll stay the same, and fewer than 20% believe they'll drop.
• MBA: The Mortgage Bankers Association thinks the average 30-year fixed rate will be around 6.8% from July to September 2025.
• Fannie Mae: They are a little more optimistic, predicting around 6.6% for the third quarter.
• Forbes Advisor: The experts they talked to believe rates will likely stay in the high-6% to low-7% range. They think it's unlikely we'll see any major drops because of rising prices (inflation).
• U.S. News: They think rates will likely stay between 6.5% and 7% through 2025. They also mention that changes in government policies could make things uncertain.

Here are some average predictions for 30-year fixed mortgages in Q3 2025 that experts have provided:

Source	Prediction
Fannie Mae	6.6%
National Association of Home Builders	6.75%
Mortgage Bankers Association	6.80%
Wells Fargo	6.65%
National Association of Realtors	6.4%
Average Prediction	6.64%

Based on these expert forecasts, it's reasonable to expect that mortgage rates will probably remain stable or see slight fluctuations in the coming weeks.

What This Means for You

• For Buyers: If you're thinking of buying a home, it's wise to get pre-approved for a mortgage so you know exactly how much you can afford. And don't try to time the market too much. Instead, focus on finding a home that fits your needs and budget.
• For Sellers: If you're planning to sell, now is a pretty good time. While rates might be slightly higher than they were a few years ago, there are still plenty of buyers out there.
• For Homeowners: If you already have a mortgage, it may or may not be the best time to refinance. Run the numbers to make sure it makes sense for your financial situation.

The Bottom Line:  So, to sum it all up: I think mortgage rates will likely stay in a similar zone over the next 30 days, probably bouncing between 6.5% and 7%. The Federal Reserve's next move and upcoming economic data will be key. This is just my best guess based on what's happening in the mortgage world right now. Keep an eye on the news and talk to a financial professional to make the best decision for your particular needs.

As of July 28, 2025, mortgage rates today show a slight upward movement with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 6.90%, up 4 basis points from last week’s 6.86%, according to Zillow. Similarly, refinance rates have seen a notable rise, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate jumping to 7.18%, up 12 basis points from the previous week’s 7.06%. These small increases reflect current economic conditions and hint at a stable but cautious housing finance market in the near term.

Mortgage Rates Today July 28, 2025: Rates Are Slightly Higher, Refinance Costs Climb

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 6.90%, a 4 basis points increase from last week.
• 30-year fixed refinance rates climbed to 7.18%, up 12 basis points, indicating borrowing costs are inching higher.
• Shorter-term mortgage rates also saw minor increases, e.g., 15-year fixed at 5.94% and 5-year ARM at 7.78%.
• Refinances show mixed trends with a slight decrease in 15-year fixed refinance rates to 5.92%.
• Expert forecasts place August 2025 mortgage rates between 6.4% and 6.8%, suggesting stability but no expectation of significant dips yet.
• Economic factors like inflation trends, Federal Reserve policies, and Treasury yields continue to influence these rates.

Mortgage rates represent the interest charged on home loans. They fluctuate daily based on broader economic signals. Today’s rates are slightly higher compared to last week, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in inflation and Federal Reserve actions. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most popular loan product among homebuyers because it offers predictability with stable monthly payments over three decades.

Detailed Mortgage Rate Overview (July 28, 2025)

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.90%	+0.04%	7.36%	+0.04%
20-Year Fixed	6.51%	+0.13%	6.79%	+0.01%
15-Year Fixed	5.94%	+0.04%	6.25%	+0.04%
10-Year Fixed	5.94%	+0.19%	6.34%	+0.22%
7-Year ARM	7.56%	+0.80%	7.81%	+0.15%
5-Year ARM	7.78%	+0.05%	8.04%	+0.01%

Government-backed loans:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed FHA	7.75%	+0.35%	8.79%	+0.34%
30-Year Fixed VA	6.42%	+0.10%	6.62%	+0.09%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.44%	-0.07%	6.45%	-0.06%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.88%	+0.04%	6.21%	+0.02%

What About Refinance Rates Today?

Refinancing allows homeowners to replace their current mortgage with a new one, ideally with a lower interest rate to reduce monthly payments or total interest paid. However, as of July 28, 2025, refinance rates have generally increased.

Refinance Program	Current Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.18%	+0.11%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.92%	-0.02%
5-Year ARM Refinance	8.06%	+0.01%

The rise in 30-year refinance rates to 7.18% is significant and suggests lenders are adjusting pricing due to broader economic conditions. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed refinance rate saw a small decrease, offering some relief for those targeting shorter loan terms.

Expert Expectations About Mortgage Rates: What’s Coming?

Looking ahead to August 2025 and beyond, forecasts from major housing and mortgage lending experts suggest rates will mostly stabilize with no dramatic falls expected soon:

Source	Q3 2025 (August) Forecast	Year-End 2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast
National Association of Realtors (NAR)	~6.4%	6.4%	6.1%
Realtor.com	6.5%-6.7%	6.4%	—
Fannie Mae	6.6%	6.5%	6.1%
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)	6.8%	6.7%	6.3%
Freddie Mac	~6.5%-6.7%	~6.5%	—
Morgan Stanley	6.5%-6.8%	—	Lower if yields drop

What does this mean practically? Most experts agree mortgage rates will hover in the 6.4% to 6.8% range in the near term, which aligns closely with today’s mortgage rates hovering around 6.9%. Some small improvements might occur if inflation eases, and if Treasury yields come down as well, but solid drops seem reserved for next year.

What Drives Mortgage and Refinance Rates Today?

Understanding mortgage rates requires understanding the bigger economic picture. Here are the core factors impacting rates as of late July 2025:

• Federal Reserve Actions: The Fed's decisions on the federal funds rate directly influence mortgage rates. Currently, the Fed has paused rate hikes, waiting to see inflation trends. If inflation cools faster, the Fed might cut rates, lowering mortgage costs.
• Inflation: Persistent inflation keeps pressure on interest rates. The Fed's goal remains to push inflation back to a 2% target. If inflation remains “sticky,” mortgage rates likely remain high or rise.
• Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury note closely. If Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates increase, and vice versa.
• Economic Growth: Stronger economic growth can push rates higher because it raises inflation risks and demand for credit.
• Housing Market Conditions: Limited housing inventory and strong buyer demand can keep prices and borrowing costs elevated.

Contextualizing Today’s Rates With a Simple Example

Let's say you're buying a home priced at $400,000 and financing 80% with a mortgage.

If your 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.90% (today's rate):

• Loan amount: $320,000
• Monthly principal & interest payment ≈ $2,127

If rates were slightly lower at 6.40%,

• Monthly payment would be closer to $2,000, saving roughly $127 per month or about $1,524 annually.

Though these differences might seem small percentage-wise, they add up and can influence buyers' decisions significantly.

Why Are Refis Rates Higher Than Purchase Rates?

Refinance rates tend to be slightly higher than purchase mortgage rates right now because:

• Lenders price refinance loans to account for longer-term interest risk and borrower credit profiles.
• Market conditions and Treasury yields have pushed rates upward overall.
• Borrower demand for refinancing has moderated somewhat, tightening competition among lenders.

Recent Changes Compared to Previous Weeks

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen modestly from 6.86% last week to 6.90% today.
• The 30-year fixed refinance rate increased more steeply from 7.06% to 7.18%.
• Shorter-term rate changes are mostly incremental, except the 7-year ARM mortgage which spiked 0.80%, a noteworthy one-week jump.

These weekly shifts may seem minor but indicate how sensitive rates are to economic news and market expectations.

Summarizing the Economic Drivers Behind Current Rate Trends

Today's mortgage and refinance rates reflect broader economic tensions between the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation and the hopes for economic growth stability. Inflation slowdown could trigger rate cuts down the line, but for now, the Fed is holding stance.

• Inflation data in mid-2025 continues to show resilience.
• Treasury yields remain elevated but have occasional dips.
• Housing market dynamics, including buyer demand and supply shortages, keep mortgage rates from dropping drastically.

This blend of factors means rate increases or decreases will likely be moderate and gradual.

Mortgage rates today, July 27, 2025, remain mostly stable with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate holding steady at 6.88%. Meanwhile, refinance rates have seen a slight increase, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate edging up to 7.10%. These rates suggest a balance between inflation pressures and Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, influencing borrowing costs for homebuyers and those looking to refinance.

Mortgage Rates Today – July 27, 2025: Rates Stable with Slight Shifts in Refinance

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate holds steady at 6.88% as of July 27, 2025.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate slightly increased to 5.93%, a 1 basis point rise.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate also increased modestly to 7.77%.
• Refinance 30-year fixed rate increased slightly to 7.10%.
• Federal Reserve's rate policy continues to impact mortgage trends and future expectations.
• Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae forecasts suggest rates may ease mildly but remain elevated through 2025.
• Borrowing costs remain significant compared to earlier years but stable compared to recent months.

Understanding Mortgage Rates Today – July 27, 2025

Today's mortgage rates are a reflection of broader economic conditions and monetary policies. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which is the most common type of mortgage loan for home purchases, remains unchanged at 6.88%. This stability provides a predictable borrowing environment for buyers locking in long-term loans.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate is slightly higher at 5.93%, which still appeals to borrowers wanting a shorter loan term and lower total interest costs, despite the slight uptick. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), such as the 5-year ARM, have seen a small increase to 7.77%, reflecting uncertainty and market adjustments.

Refinancing costs have seen a subtle increase, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate rising to 7.10%. This uptick may discourage some homeowners from refinancing, given the higher monthly payments compared to past years.

Detailed Mortgage and Refinance Rate Data

Here is a detailed table provided by Zillow with the current mortgage rates by loan type (all figures as of July 27, 2025):

Loan Type	Interest Rate (%)	1-Week Change	APR (%)	1-Week APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.88	0.00	7.36	+0.02
20-Year Fixed	6.41	-0.31	6.75	-0.28
15-Year Fixed	5.93	+0.01	6.25	+0.03
10-Year Fixed	5.94	-0.09	6.34	+0.21
7-Year ARM	7.00	-0.57	7.78	-0.18
5-Year ARM	7.77	-0.06	8.06	-0.06

Government Loan Rates:

Loan Type	Interest Rate (%)	1-Week Change	APR (%)	1-Week APR Change
30-Year FHA Fixed	7.75	+0.48	8.79	+0.48
30-Year VA Fixed	6.27	-0.09	6.49	-0.09
15-Year FHA Fixed	5.91	+0.44	6.87	+0.40
15-Year VA Fixed	5.84	-0.05	6.21	-0.03

Current Refinance Rates as of July 27, 2025

Refinancing helps homeowners reduce their monthly payments or shorten their loan period, but current rates show a small upward trend:

Loan Type	Interest Rate (%)	1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.10	+0.03
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.94	+0.02
5-Year ARM Refinance	8.05	0.00

The refinance rates are reflective of slightly higher borrowing costs relative to purchase mortgage rates. The rise in refinance rates, though small, can impact decisions on when to refinance.

How Federal Reserve Policy Influences Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the cornerstone shaping mortgage rate trends. After a period of aggressive rate hikes designed to curb inflation, the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024. Specifically:

• Fed Rate Cuts in Late 2024: Three cuts totaling 1 percentage point brought the federal funds rate to a 4.25%–4.5% range.
• 2025 Rate Outlook: The Fed signals further cuts but with divided opinion on timing—July, September, or later.
• Inflation and Tariffs: Inflation pressures from tariffs remain, but they are seen as temporary shocks.
• Economic Growth and Employment: Moderate GDP growth and rising unemployment create a case for cuts, but timing remains uncertain.

Mortgage rates tend to lag Fed policy moves, influenced by long-term bond yields and market expectations. Current 30-year mortgage averages around 6.88% compared with 6.7% in 2024. Projections by experts expect that if Fed rate cuts materialize as planned, mortgage rates could gradually fall closer to 5% by 2028.

Example Calculation: What a 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Means for Borrowers

Suppose a borrower takes a $300,000 mortgage at the current 30-year fixed rate of 6.88%.

• Monthly Principal & Interest payment =

Using formula for monthly payment on fixed rate mortgage:

$$ M = P \times \frac{r(1+r)^n}{(1+r)^n -1} $$

Where:

• $$P = 300,000$$ (loan amount)
• $$r = \frac{6.88\%}{12} = 0.005733$$
• $$n = 360$$ (30 years × 12 months)

Calculating:

$$ M = 300,000 \times \frac{0.005733 \times (1+0.005733)^{360}}{(1+0.005733)^{360} -1} \approx 1,976.46 $$

This means the monthly payment for principal and interest alone is about $1,976.46—an important consideration for homebuyers planning their budgets (excluding taxes, insurance, and other fees).

Mortgage Market Trends and Forecasts

• Home Sales: Projected to reach about 4 million in 2025, slightly below 2024 figures.
• Home Price Growth: Expected to continue rising but at a slower pace (~2.5% annually).
• Forecasted Mortgage Rates: ESR Group and Fannie Mae expect mortgage rates to end 2025 near 6.5%, dropping moderately to about 6.1% in 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association: Forecasts 30-year mortgage rates to hover near 6.8% through September 2025, and remain in the mid-6% range through 2026.

Overall, the market anticipates a slow easing of rates but not a rapid decline, influenced by inflation risks and the Fed's cautious approach.

Personal Insight and Experience

From an analytical viewpoint, the current mortgage environment presents a challenge and opportunity. While rates near 7% are high relative to the historically low-interest environment of the past decade, they are holding steady, offering predictability amid economic uncertainty. If you are considering buying a home or refinancing, locking a rate now may protect you from potential future increases.

The slight rise in refinance rates suggests lenders are cautious or anticipating higher loan servicing costs. This, coupled with economic indicators of slower growth and moderate inflation, means borrowers should watch the Fed's upcoming moves closely.

Summary Table of Key Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Rate Type	Rate (%)	1-Week Change (%)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.88	0.00
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.93	+0.01
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.77	+0.02
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.10	+0.03
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.94	+0.02
5-Year ARM Refinance	8.05	0.00

Mortgage rates today, July 26, 2025, generally remain stable with minor fluctuations. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate holds steady at 6.88%, unchanged from last week, while the 15-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 5.91%, and the 5-year ARM increased marginally to 7.76%. Refinance rates have mostly moved down with the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropping to 7.01%, though the 15-year fixed refinance rate nudged up to 5.92%. These trends illustrate a stabilizing mortgage market with some nuanced rate shifts that can affect borrowers differently depending on their loan type and goals.

Mortgage Rates Today July 26, 2025: Stable 30-Year Fixed at 6.88%, Refinance Rates Drop Slightly

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains steady at 6.88%, showing no change from the prior week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 5.91%.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate increased slightly to 7.76%.
• 30-year fixed refinance mortgage rates declined to 7.01%, a 9 basis point drop.
• Experts forecast mortgage rates to average around 6.4% in late 2025 and potentially drop further in 2026.
• Federal Reserve monetary policy is a key driver influencing mortgage rate trends.
• The market shows signs of moderation in home price appreciation and possible growth in home sales as affordability impacts shift.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

As of July 26, 2025, here are the primary mortgage rates across various loan programs sourced directly from Zillow data:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.88%	0.00%	7.35%	+0.01%
20-Year Fixed	6.47%	-0.25%	6.98%	-0.05%
15-Year Fixed	5.91%	-0.01%	6.23%	0.00%
10-Year Fixed	5.94%	-0.09%	6.34%	+0.21%
7-Year ARM	7.00%	-0.57%	7.78%	-0.18%
5-Year ARM	7.76%	+0.01%	8.07%	-0.05%

Government-backed loan programs:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year FHA Fixed	7.17%	-0.09%	8.20%	-0.10%
30-Year VA Fixed	6.40%	+0.04%	6.62%	+0.05%
15-Year FHA Fixed	6.06%	+0.60%	7.03%	+0.56%
15-Year VA Fixed	5.90%	0.00%	6.26%	+0.02%

Current Refinance Rates

Refinancing rates, which are crucial for homeowners considering adjusting their current mortgages, show the following trends on July 26, 2025:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.01%	-0.09%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.92%	+0.06%
5-Year ARM Refinance	8.04%	+0.04%

The decline in the 30-year fixed refinance rate by 9 basis points is encouraging for homeowners looking to reduce monthly payments or tap equity while rates remain moderately high.

The Big Picture: What Influences These Rates?

Mortgage rates today remain elevated compared to historic lows seen a few years ago, but show signs of stability. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate settings and inflation control, continues to play a critical role:

• The Federal Reserve cut rates three times late in 2024, bringing the funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
• Fed officials suggest rate cuts may occur in the second half of 2025 but are split on timing.
• Inflation pressures remain a concern, influenced partly by tariff impacts, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach.

Because mortgage rates typically follow long-term bond yields, especially the 10-year Treasury yield, investor expectations about inflation and economic growth keep mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range currently.

Forecasts: Are Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise or Fall?

Several expert organizations and economists provide forecasts for the remainder of 2025 and looking into 2026:

• National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts mortgage rates averaging 6.4% in late 2025, easing down to 6.1% in 2026 as economic conditions improve and inflation eases.
• Freddie Mac anticipates rates staying higher for longer during 2025 but sees potential for modest rate decreases later, which could increase home sales and refinancing activity.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects 30-year rates to hover near 6.8% through September 2025 and gradually decline to the mid-6% range by the end of 2026.
• Morgan Stanley strategists argue that slower GDP growth in 2026 could lower Treasury yields and hence mortgage rates, improving affordability but the timing and scale remain uncertain.

These forecasts are based on economic models that factor in inflation trends, Fed policy paths, housing supply, and overall economic activity.

Mortgage and Refinance Rate Comparison Table

Category	Current Rate % (July 26, 2025)	Rate Trend This Week	Forecast for End of 2025	Source
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.88%	Stable	~6.4%	Zillow, NAR, Freddie Mac
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.91%	Slight decrease	~5.8%	Zillow, Freddie Mac
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.01%	Decrease	Slight decrease expected	Zillow, Freddie Mac
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.76%	Slight increase	Variable/Ambiguous	Zillow

Example: How These Rates Affect Monthly Payments

For a $400,000 home loan with a 20% down payment ($80,000), here’s how monthly principal and interest payments differ with today's mortgage rate compared to a forecasted lower rate:

• At current 6.88% for 30-year fixed:
  Monthly payment ≈ $2,540
• At forecasted 6.4% rate:
  Monthly payment ≈ $2,408

This difference of about $132 monthly can add up over time, demonstrating why even slight rate movements are important to borrowers.

Broader Housing Market Context

Moderate mortgage rates have contributed to:

• Predictions of increased home sales by 6%-11% in coming years.
• Slower but positive home price appreciation, around 2.5%-4% per year.
• Slight improvements in affordability could encourage more buyers to enter the market, while sellers might begin to list more homes as the rate lock-in effect eases.

Experts like Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economist) emphasize that mortgage rates remain one of the most critical factors shaping housing market demand and supply dynamics.

Final Thoughts: Navigating Today’s Mortgage Environment

As of July 26, 2025, mortgage and refinance rates reflect a period of relative stability but remain elevated compared to previous decades. Borrowers, whether purchasing a home or refinancing, face a landscape where careful loan type and timing decisions can save significant money.

The Federal Reserve’s policy moves, inflation outlook, and economic growth will heavily influence whether these rates inch higher, stabilize, or fall over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Considering all this, one sees a housing market cautiously gearing for growth but mindful of cost pressures, with mortgage rates acting as a linchpin.