Today’s Mortgage Rates – October 6, 2025: Loan Rates Drop Modestly for Homebuyers

Today, on October 6, 2025, today's mortgage rates for homebuyers have modestly decreased, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.41%, down 8 basis points from last week’s 6.49%, according to Zillow's latest data. For those looking to refinance, the 30-year fixed refinance rates have slightly increased to 7.10% from 6.99%, showing a mix in market movements. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate also saw a slight decrease to 5.61%, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) rates moved marginally upward. These figures portray a market with relatively stable but slightly varying mortgage costs, influenced by economic factors and federal monetary policies.

Today's Mortgage Rates – October 6, 2025: Loan Rates Drop Modestly for Homebuyers

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.41%, an 8 basis point decrease from last week.
• Refinance 30-year fixed rates rose slightly to 7.10%.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rates for purchase and refinance declined marginally to 5.61% and 5.91%, respectively.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) generally increased modestly, with 5-year ARM rates moving up to 7.08% for purchase, and 7.46% for refinance.
• The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut has had a moderate impact on lowering Treasury yields, indirectly affecting mortgage rates.
• Mortgage rate spreads over Treasury yields remain wide, keeping mortgage rates somewhat elevated despite lower benchmark yields.

Understanding Today's Mortgage Rates: An Overview

Mortgage rates define the cost of borrowing money to buy a home or refinance an existing home loan. These rates fluctuate daily due to a complex mix of economic conditions, government policy, and financial market factors. The key benchmark influencing fixed mortgage rates is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates typically follow, but not always in a one-to-one relationship.

As of October 6, 2025:

Loan Type	Rate (%)	One Week Change	APR (%)	APR One Week Change
30-Year Fixed (Purchase)	6.41	-0.08	6.90	-0.03
15-Year Fixed (Purchase)	5.61	-0.05	5.94	-0.03
20-Year Fixed	6.31	-0.04	6.81	+0.12
10-Year Fixed	5.84	0.00	6.23	0.00
5-Year ARM	7.08	+0.02	7.86	+0.15
7-Year ARM	7.66	+0.24	8.32	+0.53

Source: Zillow Mortgage Data, October 6, 2025

These rates reflect what borrowers with strong credit profiles can expect. Government-backed loans, such as FHA and VA loans, show varied rates—with VA loans providing some of the lowest fixed rates available, for example, a 30-year fixed VA loan at 5.88%.

Today's Refinance Rates: What Homeowners Should Know

The decision to refinance depends heavily on current mortgage rates compared to the original loan rate. Refinancing can lower monthly payments, shorten loan terms, or tap into home equity.

Recent refinance rates are showing a mixed picture:

Refinance Loan Type	Rate (%)	Weekly Change	APR (%)	APR Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.10	+0.11	Data N/A	Data N/A
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.91	-0.05	Data N/A	Data N/A
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.46	+0.05	Data N/A	Data N/A

The increase in 30-year refinance rates to 7.10% could temper enthusiasm for refinancing among some homeowners. However, the slight drop in the 15-year refinance rate makes shorter-term refinancing potentially attractive for others.

Factors Driving Mortgage Rate Changes on October 6, 2025

1. The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut

On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 0.25%, moving the target range to 4.0%-4.25%. This was the first cut in 2025 after a pause. Though the Fed influences short-term interest rates directly, its policy impacts mortgage rates mainly through longer-term Treasury yields.

2. Treasury Yields and Mortgage Spreads

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.12% as of October 1, 2025, helping to push down fixed mortgage rates. However, the spread—the difference between mortgage rates and Treasury yields—remains over 2 percentage points, wider than usual. This spread reflects lender risk premiums and market uncertainty, keeping mortgage rates somewhat elevated despite the drop in Treasury yields.

3. Inflation and Economic Growth

Inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, GDP growth remained strong at 3.8% annualized in Q2 2025. This economic environment keeps mortgage lenders cautious and mortgage rates from falling too sharply.

How Mortgage Rates Have Shifted Over the Past Year

Mortgage rates this year have generally hovered in the mid-6% range for 30-year fixed loans. Earlier in the year, rates started higher but have seen a modest downward trend, particularly after the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut.

Month	30-Year Fixed Rate (%)	15-Year Fixed Rate (%)
October 2024	7.25	6.10
January 2025	6.95	5.95
June 2025	6.50	5.65
October 6, 2025	6.41	5.61

The gradual easing of rates reflects ongoing market adjustments, balancing inflation concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Mortgage Rate Forecasts: What Experts Are Saying

Several respected agencies have weighed in on mortgage rate outlooks:

• National Association of Realtors® expects rates to average 6.4% in the latter half of 2025 and drop to about 6.1% in 2026, emphasizing that rates are a key factor in affordability and market demand.
• Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates will be 6.4% at the end of 2025 and decrease further to about 5.9% in 2026, with refinance activity gaining traction as rates decline.
• Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates elevated volatility, forecasting a 6.7% average 30-year rate by year-end 2025, easing to 6.5% in 2026, with ongoing fluctuations influencing refinance windows.

These forecasts suggest moderate relief for borrowers ahead but highlight that mortgage rates will likely stay above the cyclical lows seen earlier in the decade.

Comparing Loan Types: Conforming vs. Government Loans

Mortgage rates vary by loan type due to differences in risk, loan limits, and insurer backing.

Loan Program	Rate (%)	Weekly Change	APR (%)	Remarks
30-Year Fixed Conforming	6.41	-0.08	6.90	Most common loan type
30-Year Fixed FHA	7.63	+1.87	8.65	Higher rates due to mortgage insurance costs
30-Year Fixed VA	5.88	-0.14	6.00	Lowest rates for eligible veterans
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.31	+0.03	6.27	Shorter term can save interest
15-Year Fixed VA	5.84	+0.04	6.20	Lower than typical 15-year fixed

VA loans remain among the most affordable options, offering the lowest rates without mortgage insurance for qualifying borrowers. FHA loans tend to have higher rates reflecting their insurer risk and borrower profiles.

Implications for Buyers and Refinancers in October 2025

The small decrease in purchase mortgage rates to the low 6.4% range marks a slight easing from highs wrought by inflation and Fed rate hikes earlier. Though not dramatic, this trend can turn into meaningful savings on monthly payments over the life of a new home loan.

Refinancers face a more nuanced situation. The 30-year refinance rate rise to 7.10% might deter some homeowners from refinancing, but the drop in 15-year refinance rates to 5.91% could appeal to those aiming to reduce their loan term and build equity faster.

Example Calculation: Impact of Today's 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Suppose you are buying a home for $350,000 with a 20% down payment ($70,000), financing $280,000.

Interest Rate	Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
6.49% (last week)	$1,770
6.41% (today)	$1,747
Difference	$23 less per month

This small decline in the mortgage rate saves $23 monthly or about $276 yearly, which adds up especially in long-term budgeting.

The Federal Reserve's Role and Market Additional Factors

The Fed’s rate cuts provide some relief in borrowing costs but have not translated to large mortgage rate drops due to the persistent inflation above target and economic growth. Investors' demand for mortgage-backed securities relative to Treasury bonds influences how much lenders need to charge borrowers as a premium for risk.

The current elevated spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields reflects market caution and uncertainty, acting as a barrier to more significant rate declines despite lower benchmark yields.

Summary: Over the years, mortgage rates have fluctuated widely—from historic lows near 3% in recent years to highs above 7%. The current mid-6% range indicates a higher cost of borrowing than the ultra-low rate period of early 2020s but still below historical highs of past decades. Borrowers should consider how today's rates compare to personal financial goals and market forecasts.