Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 18, 2025: Rates Rise Across the Board

Today, mortgage rates have increased across the board, contrary to expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut yesterday. The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.54%, up 12 basis points from last week (6.42%). Similarly, refinance rates surged, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate climbing to 6.87%, up 10 basis points from the prior week. This surprising uptick in mortgage and refinance rates comes despite the Fed lowering its benchmark rate as a risk-management move amidst economic uncertainties.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 18, 2025: Rates Rise Across the Board

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.54%, increasing 12 basis points from last week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 5.61%, up 4 basis points.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rates climbed to 7.44%, an increase of 12 basis points.
• Refinance rates surged, with 30-year fixed refinance at 6.87% and 15-year fixed refinance at 5.64%.
• Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 17 by 0.25%, but mortgage rates rose, highlighting a complex market reaction.
• Forecasts from major organizations expect mortgage rates to average around 6.4%-6.5% for the remainder of 2025, with a slight dip expected in 2026.

Current Mortgage Rates Breakdown for September 18, 2025

Here’s a detailed table of mortgage rates as announced by Zillow for various loan types:

Loan Type	Mortgage Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.54%	+0.09%	6.89%	-0.01%
20-Year Fixed	6.00%	-0.22%	6.44%	-0.13%
15-Year Fixed	5.61%	+0.10%	5.82%	+0.02%
10-Year Fixed	5.79%	0.00%	6.09%	0.00%
7-Year ARM	7.65%	+1.28%	8.25%	+0.81%
5-Year ARM	7.44%	+0.44%	7.89%	+0.21%

Government-backed loan rates:

Program	Mortgage Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed FHA	5.58%	-0.07%	6.59%	-0.08%
30-Year Fixed VA	6.13%	+0.22%	6.34%	+0.24%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.25%	+0.03%	6.22%	+0.03%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.72%	+0.15%	6.07%	+0.18%

Refinance Rates Also Climb on September 18, 2025

Just like mortgage rates, refinance rates have risen, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate hitting 6.87%, a 10 basis-point increase from last week’s 6.77%.

Refinance Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	6.87%	+0.10%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.64%	+0.09%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.40%	-0.16%

Why Did Mortgage Rates Rise Despite the Fed's Rate Cut?

On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, aiming to manage economic risks as job growth slows and inflation remains above the 2% target. Normally, a Fed cut would signal lower borrowing costs, but mortgage rates operate differently.

• Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which is driven by investor demand and inflation outlook rather than the Fed's short-term rate.
• After the Fed's announcement, bond yields increased slightly due to concerns about persistent inflation and global economic uncertainties.
• This led to mortgage rates moving higher despite the Fed's rate cut, showing how mortgage pricing reflects broader market sentiment and future expectations.

Detailed Example Calculation: How Rate Change Affects Monthly Payments

Assuming a $300,000 loan amount with 30-year fixed mortgage:

• At a 6.42% rate (previous week’s average):
  • Monthly payment = $1,893 (principal & interest only)
• At a 6.54% rate (today’s rate):
  • Monthly payment = $1,908

Difference: $15 more per month, or $180 more per year.

While this increase may appear small monthly, it adds up significantly over the life of the loan, highlighting how even slight rate changes impact affordability.

Forecasts for Mortgage Rates in Late 2025 and Beyond

Mortgage industry experts continue to monitor rates closely for the remainder of the year:

• National Association of REALTORS® expects mortgage rates to average 6.4% in late 2025 and decrease to 6.1% in 2026, which would improve affordability.
• Fannie Mae’s August 2025 forecast predicts rates ending 2025 around 6.5%, dipping to 6.1% in 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates a 30-year mortgage rate around 6.7% by year-end 2025, dropping slightly to 6.5% in 2026.
• Realtor.com projects a slow easing back to around 6.4% by the end of the year.

This consensus suggests a gradual softening in rates next year, supportive of buyer demand but subject to inflation and economic data.

Understanding ARM Rates vs Fixed Rates Today

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) like the 5-year and 7-year options have climbed noticeably faster than fixed rates:

• 7-year ARM: +1.28% this week to 7.65%
• 5-year ARM: +0.44% to 7.44%

ARMs fluctuate with short-term interest rates and can spike or fall more rapidly, posing risks and potential opportunities depending on market moves.

Fixed-rate mortgages remain popular for stability, especially in this uncertain period where predicting future rate moves is tricky.

Federal Reserve’s Role and Market Reaction

The Fed's September 17 rate cut was intended to help stave off an economic slowdown, but mortgage markets react more to inflation and bond yields than Fed short-term rates alone. This explains the divergence where consumer borrowing rates rose even as policy loosens.

The Fed signaled more cuts could come but sounded cautious, balancing inflation risks against economic slack. The “dot plot” forecast shows varied views among Fed members, indicating a careful, data-dependent future path.

Impact on Home Buyers and Refinancers

• Homebuyers today face slightly higher borrowing costs than last week, tightening affordability despite hopes for cheaper loans post-Fed cut.
• Refinancers with existing mortgages might find fewer immediate savings due to higher refinance rates, though some segments (like 5-year ARM refinance) saw small decreases.
• It's important for buyers and homeowners to shop rates, as mortgage pricing varies by lender and borrower profile.

Summary Table: Week-over-Week Rate Changes (September 11 – 18, 2025)

Mortgage Type	Previous Rate	Current Rate	Change (bps)	Impact
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.42%	6.54%	+12 bps	Higher costs
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.57%	5.61%	+4 bps	Slightly up
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.32%	7.44%	+12 bps	Higher risk
30-Year Fixed Refi	6.77%	6.87%	+10 bps	Higher cost

Additional Context on Rates from Other Sources

Freddie Mac reported a 30-year fixed rate for early September 2025 at about 6.3% before seeing minor fluctuations following the Fed's cut. Other financial institutions echoed Zillow’s findings, indicating a nationwide theme of rising mortgage rates even as conventional wisdom expected declines.