Today’s Mortgage Rates September 29, 2025: Rates Dip Across the Board on Monday

As of September 29, 2025, mortgage rates have dropped slightly across the board compared to last week, making borrowing a bit more affordable for homebuyers and those looking to refinance. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved down to 6.53% from 6.59%, while the 15-year fixed rate dropped more notably to 5.64%, and the 5-year ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) declined to 7.08%. Refinance rates also saw mixed movements but generally rose slightly compared to the prior week, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate inching up to 7.10% from 7.03%.

This subtle decline in mortgage rates today contrasts with the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the mixed economic signals influencing lending markets. Below, we explore the full picture of mortgage and refinance rates, recent trends, and what this means for future borrowers and refinancers.

Today's Mortgage Rates September 29, 2025: Rates Dip Across the Board on Monday

Key Takeaways

• Current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.53%, down 6 basis points from last week (Zillow).
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell 10 basis points to 5.64%.
• 5-year ARM rate dropped by 11 basis points to 7.08%.
• Refinance rates rose slightly, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate increasing 7 basis points to 7.10%.
• The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate recently, but mortgage rates are only mildly affected because the spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates remains elevated.
• Industry forecasts expect modest declines in mortgage rates toward 2026, but persistent inflation may slow this trend.
• Mortgage rates remain a critical factor in housing affordability and demand dynamics.

Current Mortgage Rates on September 29, 2025

Mortgage rates are a crucial part of the housing finance system, directly affecting monthly payments and affordability. Below is a detailed table reflecting current conforming mortgage rates for different loan types and their weekly changes:

Loan Program	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed Rate	6.53%	-0.06%	7.11%	+0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate	6.31%	-0.05%	6.58%	-0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate	5.64%	-0.12%	6.04%	-0.03%
10-Year Fixed Rate	5.84%	0.00%	6.23%	0.00%
7-Year ARM	7.28%	0.00%	7.72%	-0.01%
5-Year ARM	7.08%	-0.06%	7.93%	+0.13%

Source: Zillow Mortgage Rates, September 29, 2025

These shifts show a small but meaningful downward trend in fixed rates and some ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) reductions. The 15-year fixed rate’s drop by 12 basis points is especially relevant for borrowers seeking shorter-term loans with faster equity build-up and less total interest paid.

Refinance Rates Today – What Borrowers Are Facing

Refinance rates are slightly more volatile. Even though the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped 2 basis points on Monday alone, it is still up 7 basis points since last week, highlighting some short-term fluctuations for those looking to tap into home equity or lower payments.

Refinance Loan Program	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.10%	+0.07%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	6.04%	+0.02%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.44%	+0.02%

The current environment means homeowners considering refinancing need to weigh the slightly higher refinance rates against their existing mortgage costs. Generally, refinancing makes sense when current rates are at least 0.75% to 1% lower than the original loan rate.

Understanding Today’s Rate Movements: The Federal Reserve’s Role

In September 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, from a range of 4.25%-4.50% down to 4.00%-4.25%. This was the first reduction in interest rates after several months of stability and follows three cuts in late 2024.

Why does this matter?

• Mortgage rates are indirectly tied to the Federal Reserve rate via the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which currently sits at about 4.176%.
• Mortgage rates usually track Treasury yields but include a “spread” to cover additional risks; right now, this spread is wider than normal.
• Despite the Fed’s cut, mortgage rates have dropped only slightly because this risk premium (“spread”) remains elevated, keeping rates higher than Treasury yields alone would suggest.

The Fed faces a balancing act between controlling stubborn inflation — running at 2.9% annually (core PCE index) — and supporting economic growth, which remains solid with a 3.8% real GDP increase reported for Q2 2025.

What Experts Are Saying About Rate Trends

National Association of REALTORS® Forecast

They expect mortgage rates to average around 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and drop further to about 6.1% in 2026, driven by the easing Fed policy and potentially softer inflation. They call mortgage rates the “magic bullet” impacting affordability and buyer demand.

Fannie Mae September 2025 Forecast

Fannie Mae predicts mortgage rates will end 2025 near 6.4%, slipping to 5.9% in 2026, which is more optimistic than their previous forecast. They also anticipate an increase in mortgage origination to $1.85 trillion this year and $2.32 trillion next year, reflecting more refinancing due to lower expected rates.

Mortgage Bankers Association Outlook

They highlight ongoing interest rate volatility and expect the 30-year mortgage rate to be around 6.7% by the end of 2025, falling to 6.5% by the end of 2026. Refinancing activity is expected to be higher than 2024, but periods of weak refinance demand will persist due to volatile spreads.

How Mortgage Rates Affect Your Monthly Payments: Sample Calculations

To give a clearer picture, let’s look at a 30-year fixed mortgage example loan of $350,000 at the current average rate of 6.53%, compared to last week’s 6.59%.

Scenario	Interest Rate	Monthly Payment (Principal & Interest)	Total Paid Over 30 Years
Current Rate (Sept 29, 2025)	6.53%	$2,212	$796,500
One Week Ago Rate	6.59%	$2,236	$805,000

This slight drop saves $24 a month, or $8,500 over 30 years. While not massive, for many homeowners, every bit of rate reduction helps.

Mortgage Rate and Refinance Rate Trends Compared

Rate Type	Sept 22, 2025	Sept 29, 2025	Change (bps)	Direction
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.59%	6.53%	-6	Down
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.74%	5.64%	-10	Down
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.19%	7.08%	-11	Down
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.03%	7.10%	+7	Up
15-Year Fixed Refinance	6.02%	6.04%	+2	Up
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.42%	7.44%	+2	Up

Personal Perspective: The Nuances of Today’s Mortgage Rate Environment

From my experience analyzing mortgage markets for years, these small rate movements matter a lot to borrowers. Even slight reductions from highs above 7% can breathe life into buyer interest and encourage refinancing, especially if borrowers shop carefully to beat the “spread” margin lenders are applying.

However, the persistent spread—and economic uncertainties—mean borrowers shouldn't expect a dramatic plunge in rates just yet. With inflation still above target and the economy showing resilience, lenders remain cautious.

The lower ARM rates, particularly the 5-year ARM dropping under 7.10%, may appeal to borrowers who plan to move or refinance within a shorter horizon, offering lower initial payments despite future adjustments.

The Housing Market's Outlook Amid Mortgage Rate Changes

The subtle dip in mortgage rates might prompt some rate-locked homeowners to list their properties, potentially easing tight inventory in some areas. Still, with demand remaining steady and prices relatively high, affordability challenges persist, accentuating the importance of small rate improvements.

According to Realtor.com, mortgage rates may ease slowly and average near last year’s levels by year-end, further supported by Fed easing (Realtor.com, 2025). This environment sets the stage for a cautiously optimistic housing market heading into 2026.