Today’s Mortgage Rates September 30, 2025: 30-Year FRM Slightly Higher, Refinance Rates Jump

As of September 30, 2025, mortgage rates have slightly increased for 30-year fixed loans but show mixed trends across other loan types. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose by 3 basis points to 6.62%, while the 15-year fixed rate marginally decreased by 1 basis point to 5.74%. Meanwhile, refinance rates, particularly the 30-year fixed refinance rate, have jumped significantly to 7.65%, an increase of 64 basis points from the previous week (Zillow, 2025). This nuanced shift in mortgage and refinance rates signifies ongoing market adjustments amid Federal Reserve interest rate changes and economic factors influencing lending costs.

Today's Mortgage Rates September 30, 2025: 30-Year FRM Slightly Higher, Refinance Rates Jump

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.62%, up slightly by 3 basis points from last week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate declined marginally to 5.74%.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate increased notably to 7.31%.
• 30-year fixed refinance rate surged to 7.65%, up 64 basis points.
• Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut indirectly influences mortgage rates but spreads remain wide, keeping mortgage rates elevated.
• Mortgage rates expected to average around 6.4% in late 2025 and potentially decline in 2026 according to industry forecasts.

Understanding Mortgage Rates Today: Breakdown by Loan Type

Mortgage rates vary depending on the type and term of the loan. As of today, here is the situation for key loan categories based on data from Zillow:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	APR Weekly Change
Conforming Loans
30-Year Fixed Rate	6.62%	+0.03%	7.23%	+0.18%
20-Year Fixed Rate	6.31%	-0.05%	6.58%	-0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate	5.74%	-0.01%	6.15%	+0.08%
10-Year Fixed Rate	5.84%	0.00%	6.23%	0.00%
7-Year ARM	7.28%	0.00%	7.72%	-0.01%
5-Year ARM	7.31%	+0.17%	8.04%	+0.24%

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	APR Weekly Change
Government Loans
30-Year Fixed FHA	5.71%	-0.09%	6.72%	-0.09%
30-Year Fixed VA	5.93%	-0.13%	6.14%	-0.07%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.36%	+0.04%	6.32%	+0.04%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.58%	-0.28%	5.93%	-0.19%

Source: Zillow, September 30, 2025

Refinance Rate Changes as of September 30, 2025

Refinancing remains an important option for homeowners looking to lower monthly payments or alter loan terms. Current refinance rates show more pronounced increases, particularly for the 30-year fixed refinance loans:

Refinance Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.65%	+0.64%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	6.42%	+0.56%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.26%	No Change

This sizable increase in refinance rates reflects market volatility and wider mortgage-Treasury spreads that have grown post Federal Reserve rate cut.

How Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Affect Mortgage Rates in 2025

On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, from a 4.25%-4.5% range to 4%-4.25%. While this move aims to reduce borrowing costs, mortgage rates do not always fall immediately or proportionately. This is mainly because mortgage rates are tied indirectly to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the prevailing “spread” between mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.176% on September 26, 2025.
• Mortgage rates typically run 1 to 2 percentage points above this yield to cover risk.
• Currently, this spread has widened beyond 2 points, which limits how much lower mortgage rates can fall despite the Fed's rate cut.

This explains why we've seen a modest rise in some mortgage rates and a sharp increase in refinance rates instead of sharp declines. The market is pricing in ongoing risks such as inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, which keeps mortgage costs high relative to general Treasury yields.

Mortgage Rate Trends and Forecasts

Several key organizations have provided forecasts on where rates might head next:

• The National Association of REALTORS® expects mortgage rates to average 6.4% in the latter half of 2025 and possibly dip to 6.1% by 2026.
• Fannie Mae forecasts a similar trend with 6.4% by the end of 2025 and a decline to 5.9% in 2026. They also predict refinance activity will rise from 26% in 2025 to 35% in 2026 due to predicted lower rates.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association projects a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.7% by the end of 2025, falling slightly to 6.5% in 2026.

These outlooks suggest a cautious expectation of gradual rate reductions, supported by continued Federal Reserve policy easing and potential inflation easing, but tempered by ongoing market volatility.

Example Illustration: Mortgage Payment Calculation at Today's Rates

Suppose you are buying a home priced at $350,000 with a 20% down payment ($70,000), financing $280,000 with a 30-year fixed mortgage at today's rate of 6.62%.

• Loan Amount: $280,000
• Interest Rate: 6.62% annually
• Term: 30 years (360 months)

The estimated monthly principal and interest payment would be approximately $1,794. So, the monthly mortgage payment would be about $1,794 excluding taxes and insurance.

If rates decrease to 6.1% as projected in 2026, the payment on the same loan would drop to around $1,698, saving nearly $100 monthly.

Impact on Homebuyers and Refinancers

The slight increase in 30-year fixed mortgage rates means that buyers today face slightly higher borrowing costs, which can affect affordability, especially in markets already tight on inventory. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's rate easing signals some relief may be on the horizon.

Refinancers face a more complex picture. While current refinance rates have jumped substantially, those with higher existing rates above 6.5% still have potential to save by refinancing if rates stabilize or fall in coming months, as forecasted by industry experts.

Mortgage Rate Differences by Loan Type

A few interesting observations from today's data:

• Government-backed loans (FHA, VA) continue to offer substantially lower rates compared to conforming loans, making them attractive options for eligible borrowers.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) such as the 5-year ARM have seen a notable increase, now above 7%, which may deter some borrowers from choosing adjustable terms unless they plan to sell or refinance before adjustment periods.
• Shorter-term fixed loans like 15-year rates remain significantly lower than 30-year rates, highlighting a trade-off between a faster path to homeownership and affordability.

The Role of Inflation and Economic Growth

Inflation remains a key concern, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index holding at 2.9% year-over-year in August 2025 — above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, real GDP growth was a robust 3.8% annualized in Q2 2025.

This combination means the Federal Reserve is balancing between encouraging economic growth and containing inflation. This delicate mix has caused volatility in mortgage rates, Treasury yields, and related financial markets.

Summary of Mortgage and Refinance Rates as of September 30, 2025

Category	Rate	Movement	Notes
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.62%	Up 3 bps	Slight weekly increase
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.74%	Down 1 bps	Slight weekly decrease
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.31%	Up 16 bps	Largest increase among mortgages
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.65%	Up 64 bps	Significant jump weekly
15-Year Fixed Refinance	6.42%	Up 56 bps	Notable increase

The mortgage market today reflects a complex environment influenced by economic indicators, monetary policy, and market sentiment. While rate movements are sometimes subtle on a weekly basis, the trends give insight into lender pricing strategies and what borrowers might expect in the near term. The Federal Reserve's actions and inflation data will continue to shape mortgage dynamics through the end of 2025 and beyond.