Kissimmee Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026: Will it Crash?

Thinking about buying or selling a home in Kissimmee? You're not alone! The Kissimmee housing market is always changing, so it's important to stay up-to-date. Right now, the market is somewhat competitive. Homes are selling for a median price of $337K, which is a slight decrease compared to last year. This article dives into the key trends influencing the Kissimmee real estate scene, helping you make informed decisions.

Current Kissimmee Housing Market Trends: A Look at What's Happening

Home Sales

Let's start with the number of homes actually being sold. According to Redfin, in December 2024, there were 78 homes sold in Kissimmee. That's a drop of 28.4% compared to the 109 homes sold in December of the previous year. This decrease could indicate a few things, like fewer people actively buying or sellers holding off on listing their properties.

Location	Data	Growth % YoY
Kissimmee, FL	78	-28.4%

Home Prices

Of course, everyone wants to know about prices! As I mentioned earlier, the median sale price of a home in Kissimmee in December 2024 was $337,000. While that's down 0.89% from the previous year, it's important to remember that real estate is local. National trends don't always perfectly reflect what's happening in specific cities.

Location	Data	Growth % YoY
Kissimmee, FL	$336,990	-0.89%
United States	Add Location	Compare

Are Home Prices Dropping?

The data shows a slight year-over-year decrease in median home prices in Kissimmee. However, a small dip doesn't necessarily mean a major crash is coming. It's more accurate to say the market is moderating after a period of rapid price growth. This slight decrease could be a welcome sign for buyers who've been feeling priced out of the market. Also, keep in mind that this data is a snapshot in time. Prices can fluctuate based on the season, interest rates, and overall economic conditions.

Comparison with Current National Median Price

It's interesting to see how Kissimmee compares to the national market. While Kissimmee saw a slight price decrease, the national median price is around $407,500, showing a +6% year-over-year increase (December 2024). This difference highlights the fact that real estate is hyper-local. Kissimmee offers a comparatively more affordable option than the national median price.

Housing Supply

Inventory, or the number of homes available for sale, plays a crucial role. I don't have specific inventory numbers for Kissimmee right now, but generally, a balanced market has about 6 months of housing supply. If there are fewer than 6 months, it's considered a seller's market, and if there are more than 6 months, it's a buyer's market.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the current data, Kissimmee is considered somewhat competitive. Homes receive around 2 offers on average and sell in about 66 days. Last year, homes were selling much faster, around 34 days on average.

The average homes sell for about 3% below list price and go pending in around 58 days. This indicates a slightly more balanced market, but likely still favors sellers.

Market Trends

Several factors are influencing the Kissimmee housing market right now:

• Migration: Interestingly, a significant percentage of homebuyers in Kissimmee are looking to relocate. In the period from November 2024 to January 2025, 38% of Kissimmee homebuyers were searching to move out of Kissimmee, while 62% were looking to stay within the metropolitan area. People are coming into Kissimmee mainly from New York, Miami, and Washington, DC. People are leaving Kissimmee mostly for Cape Coral, Sarasota, and Palm Bay.
• Sale-to-List Price Ratio: Homes are selling for 96.6% of the list price. This is a decrease of 0.65 percentage points compared to last year.
• Homes Sold Above List Price: Only about 11.5% of homes are selling above list price, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-over-year.
• Homes with Price Drops: The percentage of homes with price drops has increased to 19.1%, up 1.8 percentage points from last year.

Location	Data	Growth % YoY
Kissimmee, FL	96.6%	-0.65 pt
United States	Add Location	Compare

Impact of High Mortgage Rates on the Kissimmee housing market

High mortgage rates are definitely playing a role. As of February 2025, mortgage rates are hovering around 7%. This makes buying a home more expensive, potentially cooling demand. When rates are higher, fewer people can afford to buy, and those who can might be looking at lower-priced homes than they initially planned. This can lead to longer days on market and some price adjustments. I personally believe rates will likely fluctuate throughout the year, so keeping a close eye on them is crucial if you're in the market.

In conclusion, the Kissimmee housing market is currently moderating with a slight decrease in median home prices and a longer time on market compared to last year. It's a somewhat competitive market, and factors like migration patterns and mortgage rates are playing a significant role. Whether you're buying or selling, working with a knowledgeable local real estate agent is more important than ever to navigate these trends.

Should You Invest in the Kissimmee Real Estate Market?

1. Population Growth and Trends:

Kissimmee, Florida, is experiencing significant population growth and positive demographic trends, making it an attractive prospect for real estate investors. The city's population has been steadily increasing, indicating a growing demand for housing.

• Steady Population Growth: Kissimmee's population growth is a key factor for real estate investors. A growing population often translates to increased demand for housing, creating a favorable market for property investments.
• Demographic Trends: Analyzing demographic trends, such as an influx of young professionals or families, can provide insights into the type of housing in demand, helping investors tailor their investment strategies accordingly.

2. Economy and Jobs:

The economic landscape and job market in Kissimmee contribute significantly to its real estate investment appeal.

• Economic Growth: A thriving local economy can positively impact the real estate market. Kissimmee's economic growth may lead to increased employment opportunities, attracting more residents to the area.
• Diverse Job Sectors: A city with a diverse range of job sectors can contribute to a stable housing market. Kissimmee's economy, possibly influenced by tourism and other industries, offers investors a chance to diversify their real estate portfolios.

3. Livability and Other Factors:

The overall livability of Kissimmee, including amenities, education, and safety, plays a crucial role in attracting residents and investors alike.

• Amenities and Services: Access to amenities such as parks, restaurants, and entertainment venues enhances the appeal of Kissimmee as a place to live, potentially increasing property values.
• Educational Institutions: The presence of quality schools and educational institutions can attract families, positively influencing the demand for housing in specific neighborhoods.
• Safety and Infrastructure: A safe and well-maintained city with robust infrastructure can create a conducive environment for real estate investment, assuring investors of the long-term viability of their properties.

4. Rental Property Market Size and Its Growth for Investors:

The size and growth of the rental property market in Kissimmee make it an appealing option for investors looking to generate rental income.

• Expanding Rental Market: Kissimmee's growing population and tourism industry contribute to an expanding rental market. Investors can tap into this demand by providing rental properties that cater to various needs.
• Rental Income Potential: A city with a robust rental market provides investors with the potential for consistent rental income. Understanding rental trends and tenant preferences is crucial for maximizing returns.

5. Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing:

Several additional factors make Kissimmee an enticing destination for real estate investment.

• Tourism and Vacation Rentals: The proximity to major tourist destinations, such as Orlando, opens up opportunities for vacation rentals, appealing to a broad market of short-term tenants.
• Development Projects: Ongoing or planned development projects in the city can positively impact property values. Investors should stay informed about infrastructure improvements and urban development initiatives.
• Proximity to Orlando: Kissimmee's proximity to Orlando, a major economic and entertainment hub, adds to its appeal for real estate investors looking for diverse opportunities and potential appreciation.