Las Vegas Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

Thinking about buying or selling a home in Las Vegas? Despite some mixed signals, the Las Vegas housing market trends in 2025 reveal a surprising resilience. While sales are down and inventory is up, defying expectations, the median home price actually increased in June, reaching $485,000. Now, that might sound crazy, but let's dive deep into the numbers and see what's really going on.

Current Las Vegas Housing Market Trends in 2025:

Key Takeaways: The Las Vegas Housing Market in June 2025

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, here's a quick summary of the key trends for June 2025:

• Median Home Price Increase: Single-family home prices edged up to $485,000 in Southern Nevada, a 1% increase from May and a 2.1% jump year-over-year.
• Sales Dip: The number of homes sold decreased by 6.8% from May and 7% from June 2024 (Neighborhoodsinlasvegas.com).
• Inventory Surge: There are significantly more homes listed without offers, up a whopping 70% compared to June 2024.
• Months of Supply Climbing: The housing supply jumped to 3.6 months, an 82.8% increase from last year.
• New Construction Shifts: While new home prices are up, new home sales and permits are down.

Digging Into the Numbers: Single-Family Homes

Let's break down the single-family home market in more detail. These are the houses most people think of when they picture living in Vegas, so it’s important to understand what’s happening with them.

Metric	June 2025	June 2024	June 2023	June 2022	June 2021	June 2020
Homes Sold	1,946	2,093	2,293	2,688	3,543	2,464
Median Sales Price	$485,000	$475,000	$440,990	$480,000	$395,000	$325,000

As you can see, while prices are up compared to last year, the number of homes sold has been declining each year since 2021's peak. This indicates a clear slowdown in market activity. One thing I see here is growth, where the prices are still rising steadily and the increase year after year is still significant.

The Condo and Townhome Market: A More Modest Rise

What about those looking for a more low-maintenance lifestyle? Here's what's happening with condos and townhomes:

Metric	June 2025	June 2024	June 2023	June 2022	June 2021	June 2020
Median Sales Price	$305,000	$295,000	$275,000	$280,000	$216,000	$187,250

While the increase wasn't as dramatic as in the single-family home market, condos and townhomes still saw a year-over-year price increase.

Luxury Homes: Still Living Large?

The luxury market, defined as homes selling for $1 million or more, also saw some movement. While the number of luxury homes sold dipped slightly, the median sales price actually increased.

• June 2025: 150 homes sold with a median price of $1,445,000.
• May 2025: 159 homes sold with a median price of $1,370,000.

This suggests that while some buyers might be hesitant at the lower end of the market, high-end buyers are often less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and overall economic conditions. I think the thing to consider here is the fact that the economy and rising interest rates have very little effect on the very rich.

The Great Inventory Puzzle: Why Aren't Prices Dropping?

This is the million-dollar question. With more homes sitting on the market without offers, why aren't prices falling more dramatically? Several factors could be at play:

• Seller Stubbornness: Some sellers may be clinging to the prices they think their homes are worth, remembering the crazy market of the past few years. I am experiencing a whole hoard of sellers that are under the impression their homes are worth way more than the current valuation.
• Low Interest Rate Lock-In: Sellers who bought or refinanced when interest rates were at rock bottom may be hesitant to sell, as they'd have to buy their next home at a much higher rate.
• Reduced New Construction: Builders are pulling back on new projects, helping somewhat to limit the supply overall.
• Las Vegas's Allure: Ultimately, people still want to move to Las Vegas. The city offers relatively affordable living compared to other major metropolitan areas, plus sunshine, entertainment, and no state income tax.

New Construction: A Builder's Perspective

What's happening in the new construction market?

• Net sales are up 17% from April 2025, but down 30% from May 2024.
• New home permits are down 17% from May 2024.
• Median closing prices for new homes are at an all-time high.

I saw a recent phenomenon where new home builders are having trouble moving new construction. It may be because of an inflation issue with materials.

This mixed bag suggests builders are adjusting to changing demand. While they're pulling back on new projects, the homes they are building are selling at record prices.

What Does This All Mean for You?

So, what's the takeaway? Here's my interpretation of what these Las Vegas Housing Market Trends mean for different players:

• Buyers: Look, it's definitely a better time to buy than it was a year or two ago. You have more negotiating power. Sellers are more open to price reductions and covering closing costs. Just be patient, and don't be afraid to make reasonable offers.
• Sellers: Be realistic about your pricing. Research current comparables carefully. Consider offering incentives to attract buyers. Be prepared to wait a bit longer for the right offer.
• Investors: This is a market that demands careful analysis. Opportunities exist, but it's crucial to do your due diligence and understand the risks involved.

Market Balancing Act

Las Vegas Housing Market Trends indicate a market in transition. The increase in homes listed without offers coupled with a decrease in sales signals cooling, yet median sale prices continue to defy expectations. The rise in inventory and months of supply suggests the market is tilting in favor of buyers, granting them greater negotiating power.

A Market in Transition

The Las Vegas housing market is complex and can feel contradictory at times. While the data points to a slowing market, prices are holding up better than many expected. However, the significant increase in inventory suggests that this may not last forever.

I believe we're entering a more balanced market, where buyers have more leverage and sellers need to be more realistic about pricing. Whether this balance will shift into a full-blown buyer's market or stabilize remains to be seen. Still, I think, ultimately, the long-term prospects for Las Vegas real estate remain positive. The city's population continues to grow, new businesses are moving in, and the entertainment industry is booming. These factors will continue to support the housing market in the years to come.

Las Vegas Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

You're probably wondering, “Where will the Las Vegas housing market head in the next year or two?” The quick answer is, according to the latest forecast, a slight dip is expected in the short term, but not a dramatic crash, followed by a possible surge in demand in 2026. Let's dive into the details.

First, let's see where we are now. As of today, the average home value in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise is $440,327. Which is up 2.6% over the past year. It is important to consider that the “Las Vegas housing market” comprises Single Family Homes, Condo and Townhouses.

Las Vegas Housing Market Prediction

Zillow's predictions offer insights into the near future. Here's what you might expect for the Las Vegas area related to this “housing market forecast.”

Region	Area Type	State	Forecast Date	Price Change by June 30, 2025	Price Change by August 31, 2025	Price Change from May 2025 to May 2026
Las Vegas, NV	MSA	NV	May 31, 2025	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.4%

So, what does this mean?

• Short-Term Dip (June & August 2025): Zillow forecasts a slight decrease in home values in Las Vegas, with a 0.1% dip by the end of June 2025 and an additional 0.3% decrease by the end of August 2025. This suggests a cooling-off period in the summer.
• Slight Decline Over the Year (May 2025 – May 2026): Looking at the longer view, Zillow predicts a 0.4% drop in home values from May 2025 to May 2026. This isn't catastrophic, but it signals that prices are unlikely to skyrocket in the coming year.

How Does Vegas Compare to Other Nevada Markets?

It's always good to compare regional trends within a state. Here's how Las Vegas stacks up against other Nevada metro areas:

Region	Area Type	State	Forecast Date	Price Change by June 30, 2025	Price Change by August 31, 2025	Price Change from May 2025 to May 2026
Reno, NV	MSA	NV	May 31, 2025	-0.3%	-0.9%	-1.6%
Fernley, NV	MSA	NV	May 31, 2025	-0.2%	-0.7%	-1.9%
Carson City, NV	MSA	NV	May 31, 2025	0%	-0.4%	-1.1%
Elko, NV	MSA	NV	May 31, 2025	0.2%	0%	-1.3%

As you can see, many Nevada markets are expecting similar or even larger declines. Elko stands out as a spot where prices are either stable or even growing slightly.

What About the National Picture?

To get a broader perspective, let's look at what's happening nationally. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expects a somewhat brighter picture nationwide:

• Existing Home Sales: Expected to increase 6% in 2025 and a significant 11% in 2026.
• New Home Sales: Predicted to rise 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.
• Median Home Prices: Forecast to increase 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
• Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and drop to 6.1% in 2026.

This positive national outlook contrasts slightly with Zillow's more subdued forecast for Las Vegas, where prices are expected to either dip slightly or stay flat.

So, Will Home Prices Drop or Crash in Las Vegas? 

Based on the data, a housing market crash in Las Vegas seems unlikely for 2025. The forecasts point toward a moderate adjustment rather than a sharp downturn. However, it all comes down to how much more supply is injected in the market.

What Happens in 2026?

Looking ahead to 2026, if the national trends hold true for Las Vegas, we might see a rise in home sales and moderate price increases. What the forecast from major financial institutions has shown is that mortgage rates are expected to decline, which will increase buyer affordability and demand. But until then, it is all in speculation, until new data emerges.

My Thoughts as a Real Estate Professional

In my experience, the Las Vegas market is unique. It's heavily influenced by tourism, entertainment, and overall economic activity in the region. While national trends are important, local factors heavily sway Las Vegas's market. Keep in mind that these are predictions, not guarantees. The housing market can be impacted by many things such as interest rates, migration patterns to the area, or even unforeseen economic shifts.

Should You Invest in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market in 2025?

Las Vegas, known for its glitz and glamour, also offers intriguing possibilities for real estate investors. This section explores the current Las Vegas housing market to help you decide if it aligns with your investment goals.

The Las Vegas real estate market has seen significant movement. While sales activity slowed last year, new listings also declined, creating a more balanced market compared to prior periods. This doesn't necessarily signify a downturn; it suggests a shift from a seller's market to a more neutral environment.

While some price moderation might have occurred, affordability remains a challenge due to limited inventory. So, competition can be intense, particularly for desirable properties.

Reasons to Invest in Las Vegas Real Estate

Las Vegas offers potential advantages for long-term investors:

1. Steady Growth

The Las Vegas metro area boasts impressive growth, attracting new residents thanks to its diversified economy. Tourism, entertainment, gaming, along with technology, healthcare, and education contribute to a stable income base for the population.

2. Rental Market Strength

Las Vegas enjoys a robust rental market, with many residents choosing to rent. This presents opportunities for investors to generate consistent rental income, especially in popular neighborhoods and areas near employment hubs.

3. Proven Resilience

Las Vegas has a history of bouncing back from economic downturns, as evidenced by its recovery from the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. The city continues to see revitalization efforts through new projects and initiatives.

4. Strong Economy and Population Growth

Las Vegas has been experiencing consistent population growth due to its economic opportunities, affordable cost of living, and desirable lifestyle. A growing population creates sustained demand for housing, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.

Las Vegas is a shining beacon in the desert for those fleeing California or simply hoping to make it big. Many others simply come to earn a living serving the many tourists who visit here each year or work at the firms relocating to this tax haven. All of this gives the Las Vegas real estate market a bright future.

The Las Vegas Valley was the 30th fastest-growing metro in the country last year, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Last year the valley added 14,038 new residents, a 0.6 percent increase over 2022, according to the census, and has added 71,098 residents since 2020.

5. Infrastructure Development

Las Vegas has ongoing infrastructure development projects, including new roads, public transportation, and community amenities. These investments can enhance the quality of life and property values, making it an appealing choice for long-term real estate investors.

Several significant projects are shaping Las Vegas's future:

• The Resorts World Las Vegas: A $4.3 billion mega-resort opened in June 2023, offering over 3,500 rooms, a casino, a theater, and more.
• The MSG Sphere at The Venetian: A $1.8 billion entertainment venue expected to open in late 2023 or early 2024, featuring a spherical shape and state-of-the-art technology.
• The Las Vegas Convention Center Expansion: A $980 million project added 1.4 million square feet of space, enhancing the city's event capabilities.
• The Allegiant Stadium: A $1.9 billion stadium that opened in July 2020 as the home of the NFL's Las Vegas Raiders and host for events and concerts.
• The Boring Company's Loop System: A $52 million underground transportation system connects various locations in Las Vegas using autonomous electric vehicles.

6. Economic Diversification

Las Vegas has diversified its economy beyond the entertainment and tourism sectors. The city now boasts thriving industries in technology, healthcare, and manufacturing. Economic diversification contributes to stability and long-term growth potential in the real estate market.

7. Appreciation Potential

The Las Vegas real estate market has historically shown the potential for property appreciation. As the city continues to grow and evolve, property values may increase over time, providing long-term investors with capital gains opportunities.

8. Low Property Taxes

Nevada is known for its favorable tax climate. The state has no personal income tax, and property taxes are relatively low. This can translate into better returns for real estate investors, making long-term ownership more attractive.

9. Tourism and Hospitality

Las Vegas remains a global tourist destination, and the hospitality industry continues to thrive. This ensures a steady flow of short-term rental and vacation rental opportunities, which can be a lucrative segment for long-term investors, especially in the right locations.

10. Education and Workforce

The city has been making investments in education and workforce development. A well-educated and skilled workforce can attract businesses and professionals, leading to increased demand for housing and real estate investment potential in the long term.

11. Wealth of Investment Options

Las Vegas offers a wide range of real estate investment options, from single-family homes to multi-unit properties and commercial real estate. Diversifying your portfolio with different types of properties can provide a solid foundation for long-term financial growth.

Before investing in Las Vegas real estate for the long term, it's crucial to conduct thorough research, understand market conditions, and consult with local real estate experts to make well-informed investment decisions. Long-term real estate investment can be a promising path to building wealth and financial security in this dynamic and growing city.