Mortgage Rates Could Fall as Weak Jobs Report Looms Today

The financial world is holding its breath this morning, and for good reason. Mortgage rates are poised to either dip or stay put today, February 11th, 2026, as we await the crucial January jobs report. Early signs from the economic scene are pointing towards a softer labor market, which typically translates to lower interest rates for your home loan. This is a big deal for anyone dreaming of buying a house or refinancing their current mortgage.

Mortgage Rates Could Fall as Weak Jobs Report Looms Today

For a while now, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been playing a game of limbo, dancing between 6.11% and 6.18%. It’s been a period of relative calm, but this jobs report has the potential to shake things up… or at least confirm what we've been expecting.

The Big Question: What Will the Jobs Report Say?

Economists are bracing themselves for a rather uninspiring number when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its findings later today. The consensus is that we'll see very little job growth for January, perhaps somewhere in the ballpark of 55,000 to 75,000 new jobs. Now, compared to stronger months, that’s a pretty modest figure.

When the jobs report comes in weak, it’s like a signal to the financial markets that the economy might not be as hot as we thought. This often leads to a drop in what are called Treasury yields. Think of Treasury yields as a benchmark for many interest rates, including mortgages. When they go down, mortgage rates usually follow suit. It’s a pretty reliable cause-and-effect, and it’s why lenders and borrowers alike will be glued to their screens today.

A Predictable Pattern, But With Twists

Having covered the mortgage market for a while, I've learned that while the direction of mortgage rates after a jobs report is often predictable, the exact movement can be a bit of a wild card. It's a bit like knowing it’s going to rain, but not being sure if it will be a drizzle or a downpour.

Generally, there's an inverse relationship at play:

• Good economic news (like strong job growth) is often bad news for mortgage rates. It suggests the economy is chugging along nicely, maybe even overheating, which can prompt the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates to cool things down. Higher Fed rates typically mean higher mortgage rates.
• Bad economic news (like weak job growth or rising unemployment) is usually good news for mortgage rates. It signals economic weakness, which can lead to the Fed cutting rates or investors seeking safer investments, both pushing mortgage rates lower.

However, it’s not always a straight line. Sometimes, the jobs report can be a mixed bag. You might see strong job creation, but maybe wage growth slows down, or the unemployment rate ticks up. These conflicting signals can create a “push-and-pull” effect, leaving mortgage rates in a sort of holding pattern.

What If the Report Isn't So Bad?

Even if today’s report shows a bit more resilience than expected, don't expect rates to skyrocket. Experts believe that even a moderately positive jobs report will likely keep mortgage rates in a “holding pattern” around the 6% mark. Why? Because inflation data hasn’t shown enough of a pickup to make the Federal Reserve think about raising rates. And right now, the Fed’s stance on interest rates is a huge driver of mortgage rate movement.

My Take: It’s All About the Fed and the Bonds

From my perspective, the jobs report is a key piece of the puzzle, but it's not the whole picture. The Federal Reserve's actions, or more importantly, its intended actions regarding interest rates, cast a long shadow over mortgage rates. We're also constantly watching the 10-year Treasury yield. This is where mortgage rates often find their closest ally. Lenders typically add a margin, usually around 1.5% to 2%, to the 10-year Treasury yield to determine your mortgage rate. So, if that yield dips, your mortgage rate likely will too.

Current Mortgage Rates (As of Today, February 11, 2026)

Here's a snapshot of what you might be seeing right now:

Please remember these are averages, and your individual rate will depend on your specific financial situation.

Beyond the Jobs Report: Other Rate Movers

It’s important to remember that the jobs report is just one of several factors influencing mortgage rates today. Here are a few other significant players:

1. The Bond Market and 10-Year Treasury Yields: As I mentioned, this is a huge one. When the global economy feels shaky, investors often flock to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. This increased demand drives up bond prices and, in turn, lowers their yields. A lower 10-year Treasury yield usually means lower mortgage rates.
2. Federal Reserve Policy and the Balance Sheet: While the Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, its decisions on interest rates and its balance sheet have a massive impact. The Fed ended its policy of shrinking its balance sheet in December 2025, which is a move that can inject liquidity into the market and potentially put downward pressure on rates. Plus, there was a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities ($200 billion!), which also boosts demand for mortgages, potentially lowering rates.
3. Inflation and Economic Growth: High inflation is like a corrosive acid on the value of money. Lenders need to charge higher rates to compensate for the fact that the money they get back in the future will be worth less. Conversely, if the economy is growing too fast and consumer spending is through the roof, it can lead to inflation. To prevent this “overheating,” the Fed might hint at higher rates, which influences mortgage rates. On the flip side, fears of a recession usually push rates down as the Fed looks to stimulate the economy.
4. Housing Market Supply and Demand: This one is more about the nuts and bolts of the mortgage industry. If a lender is swamped with people applying for mortgages, they might actually raise their rates to slow down the application queue. On the other hand, if there aren't many homes for sale, fewer people will be applying for mortgages, and lenders might lower rates to try and attract more business.
5. Your Personal Financial Snapshot: This is crucial. While the market sets the stage, your own financial health determines your specific rate. Key factors include:
   • Your Credit Score: A score of 740 and above usually gets you the best deals. Below 620, and you might face higher costs or even a denial.
   • Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio: This is the amount of the loan compared to the value of the home. A bigger down payment (meaning a lower LTV) shows less risk to the lender, which can translate to a lower interest rate.
   • Type of Property: Buying a primary residence is typically less risky for a lender than an investment property or a vacation home, so you'll often see lower rates for those first two.

The Bottom Line

Today's jobs report is a significant event that could provide some clarity for the mortgage market. I’m expecting that the downward pressure from anticipated economic softness will likely keep mortgage rates stable or even nudge them slightly lower. However, always keep an eye on the broader economic picture and your own financial qualifications. Making an informed decision about when to lock in your rate, regardless of today's report, is paramount.