Mortgage Rates Today July 20, 2025: 30-Year FRM is Stable, Refinance Rates Dip

As of July 20, 2025, mortgage rates remain relatively stable but slightly higher, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate standing at 6.87%, up 3 basis points from last week’s 6.84%, according to Zillow data. Meanwhile, refinance rates for the same loan term have slightly decreased to 7.04%, down 3 basis points from the previous week’s 7.07%.

15-Tear fixed mortgages show a small drop for refinancing at 5.82% and a stable rate for purchase loans at 5.89%. These modest fluctuations reflect ongoing economic dynamics, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, and housing market conditions.

Mortgage Rates Today July 20, 2025: 30-Year FRM is Stable, Refinance Rates Dip

Key Takeaways

• National 30-year fixed mortgage rate on July 20, 2025, is 6.87%, slightly higher than last week’s 6.84%.
• 30-year fixed refinance rate dropped mildly to 7.04% from 7.07%.
• The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for purchases held steady at 5.89%; refinance rates edged down to 5.82%.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) show varied small changes; 5-year ARM refinance is at 7.90%.
• The Federal Reserve’s recent actions and anticipated rate cuts influence mortgage rates over the coming months.
• Mortgage rates may remain elevated through 2025, with forecasts predicting gradual declines starting late 2025 or 2026.
• Affordability remains a challenge with higher rates compared to historical lows but could improve if rates drop as expected.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

The latest data clearly shows a picture of stabilized but slightly rising mortgage rates for home buyers, with refinance rates trending down just a bit, signaling a mixed but cautiously optimistic market. The complex interplay between ongoing inflation concerns, Fed policies, and housing supply keeps rates in a somewhat tight range.

Loan Type	Current Rate	Change vs. Previous Week	APR	APR Change
30-Year Fixed (Conforming)	6.87%	+0.03%	7.33%	+0.03%
20-Year Fixed	6.67%	+0.19%	7.16%	+0.25%
15-Year Fixed	5.89%	0.00%	6.20%	+0.01%
10-Year Fixed	6.03%	+0.25%	6.12%	+0.14%
7-Year ARM	7.73%	+0.15%	8.21%	+0.12%
5-Year ARM	7.76%	-0.12%	8.10%	-0.04%
30-Year Fixed FHA (Govt.)	6.64%	-0.17%	7.69%	-0.14%
30-Year Fixed VA (Govt.)	6.28%	-0.03%	6.50%	-0.02%
15-Year Fixed FHA (Govt.)	5.43%	+0.03%	6.47%	+0.10%
15-Year Fixed VA (Govt.)	5.78%	-0.06%	6.14%	-0.04%

(Data source: Zillow, July 20, 2025)

Refinance Rates as of July 20, 2025

Refinancing home loans remains a hot topic due to fluctuating rates. While purchase mortgage rates crept slightly up, refinance rates have edged a bit lower, possibly making refinancing attractive for certain borrowers, especially those with shorter terms.

Loan Type	Current Rate	Change vs. Previous Week	APR	APR Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.04%	-0.01%	—	—
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.82%	-0.08%	—	—
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.90%	0.00%	—	—

 

The Federal Reserve and Its Influence on Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions are crucial drivers behind mortgage rate movements. In late 2024, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by a total of 1 percentage point through three cuts from September to December, aiming to stimulate economic growth. However, as of mid-2025, the target range remains steady between 4.25% and 4.5%, reflecting the Fed's cautious pace.

During the June 2025 meeting, Fed policymakers indicated they may execute two more rate cuts in 2025, but opinions vary widely on the timing:

• Some officials advocate for cuts as early as July 2025.
• Others prefer to wait until September or later due to inflation uncertainties and economic data.

The median forecast (the “dot plot”) suggests the federal funds rate could fall to around 3.9% by year-end 2025, with further cuts expected in 2026 and 2027. The Fed also monitors how tariffs and inflation play out and is weighing the impact of a projected economic slowdown with GDP growth expected at 1.4% in 2025 (down from 1.7%).

If the labor market softens or inflation pressures ease more than expected, we could see a quicker reduction in rates. However, overall mortgage rates remain elevated and are unlikely to plunge dramatically soon (Sources: Federal Reserve June 2025 meeting notes, Zillow).

Economic Forecasts and Mortgage Rate Projections

Leading organizations provide useful forecasts that help homebuyers and investors anticipate future rate trends:

• Fannie Mae's outlook anticipates mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.5% and drop to 6.1% in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism based on economic growth projections and inflation trends. Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects 30-year fixed mortgage rates to remain mostly unchanged near 6.8% through September 2025, with a modest decline to 6.7% by year-end and 6.6% mid-2026 due to continued inflation risks.
• Morgan Stanley’s strategy team predicts that mortgage rates could fall if Treasury yields decline alongside slowing U.S. GDP growth expected in 2026. This easing might improve housing affordability, though the degree of the decline is uncertain.

For example, on a $1 million home purchase:

• At a 7.0% mortgage rate, the monthly payment would be approximately $5,322.
• If rates fall to 6.25%, monthly payments drop to $4,925, saving about $397 per month, improving affordability marginally for buyers.

Understanding How These Rates Impact Homebuyers and Refinancers

Mortgage rates above 6.5% indicate a challenging environment compared to the historic lows seen in early 2020s but still reflect broader economic conditions and monetary policy. Buyers face higher monthly payments, which can limit affordability and slow down demand, potentially balancing home price growth. For refinancing, small dips offer some relief, but many borrowers weigh closing costs and long-term savings carefully.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), popular with some buyers, show mixed trends in rates. For example, the 5-year ARM refinance rate sits at 7.90%, which may be attractive for borrowers expecting to move or refinance again before the fixed rate period ends, but higher than many fixed options.

Borrower's Calculation Example Using Current Mortgage Rates

Let's consider an example of a 30-year fixed mortgage for a $350,000 home purchase at today’s average rate:

• Purchase Price: $350,000
• Loan Amount: $280,000 (assuming 20% down)
• Interest Rate: 6.87%
• Loan Term: 30 years

Using a standard mortgage calculation formula, the monthly principal and interest payment would be roughly $1,850.60. This underscores how even modest changes in interest rates can significantly affect monthly payments.

Summary of Influences on Today's Mortgage Rates

• Federal Reserve Policies: The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts this year keeps mortgage rates elevated but with the potential for gradual decline.
• Inflation and Tariffs: Inflation remains a concern though less severe than previously feared, contributing to the current rate environment.
• Economic Growth: Slower GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 weigh on rates and housing demand.
• Housing Market Conditions: Moderate supply growth and buyer demand fluctuations continue to influence loan pricing and lender risk premiums.