Mortgage Rates Today July 26, 2025: Stable 30-Year Fixed at 6.88%, Refinance Rates Drop

Mortgage rates today, July 26, 2025, generally remain stable with minor fluctuations. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate holds steady at 6.88%, unchanged from last week, while the 15-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 5.91%, and the 5-year ARM increased marginally to 7.76%. Refinance rates have mostly moved down with the 30-year fixed refinance rate dropping to 7.01%, though the 15-year fixed refinance rate nudged up to 5.92%. These trends illustrate a stabilizing mortgage market with some nuanced rate shifts that can affect borrowers differently depending on their loan type and goals.

Mortgage Rates Today July 26, 2025: Stable 30-Year Fixed at 6.88%, Refinance Rates Drop Slightly

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains steady at 6.88%, showing no change from the prior week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 5.91%.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate increased slightly to 7.76%.
• 30-year fixed refinance mortgage rates declined to 7.01%, a 9 basis point drop.
• Experts forecast mortgage rates to average around 6.4% in late 2025 and potentially drop further in 2026.
• Federal Reserve monetary policy is a key driver influencing mortgage rate trends.
• The market shows signs of moderation in home price appreciation and possible growth in home sales as affordability impacts shift.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

As of July 26, 2025, here are the primary mortgage rates across various loan programs sourced directly from Zillow data:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.88%	0.00%	7.35%	+0.01%
20-Year Fixed	6.47%	-0.25%	6.98%	-0.05%
15-Year Fixed	5.91%	-0.01%	6.23%	0.00%
10-Year Fixed	5.94%	-0.09%	6.34%	+0.21%
7-Year ARM	7.00%	-0.57%	7.78%	-0.18%
5-Year ARM	7.76%	+0.01%	8.07%	-0.05%

Government-backed loan programs:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change	APR	Weekly APR Change
30-Year FHA Fixed	7.17%	-0.09%	8.20%	-0.10%
30-Year VA Fixed	6.40%	+0.04%	6.62%	+0.05%
15-Year FHA Fixed	6.06%	+0.60%	7.03%	+0.56%
15-Year VA Fixed	5.90%	0.00%	6.26%	+0.02%

Current Refinance Rates

Refinancing rates, which are crucial for homeowners considering adjusting their current mortgages, show the following trends on July 26, 2025:

Loan Type	Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.01%	-0.09%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.92%	+0.06%
5-Year ARM Refinance	8.04%	+0.04%

The decline in the 30-year fixed refinance rate by 9 basis points is encouraging for homeowners looking to reduce monthly payments or tap equity while rates remain moderately high.

The Big Picture: What Influences These Rates?

Mortgage rates today remain elevated compared to historic lows seen a few years ago, but show signs of stability. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate settings and inflation control, continues to play a critical role:

• The Federal Reserve cut rates three times late in 2024, bringing the funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
• Fed officials suggest rate cuts may occur in the second half of 2025 but are split on timing.
• Inflation pressures remain a concern, influenced partly by tariff impacts, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach.

Because mortgage rates typically follow long-term bond yields, especially the 10-year Treasury yield, investor expectations about inflation and economic growth keep mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range currently.

Forecasts: Are Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise or Fall?

Several expert organizations and economists provide forecasts for the remainder of 2025 and looking into 2026:

• National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts mortgage rates averaging 6.4% in late 2025, easing down to 6.1% in 2026 as economic conditions improve and inflation eases.
• Freddie Mac anticipates rates staying higher for longer during 2025 but sees potential for modest rate decreases later, which could increase home sales and refinancing activity.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects 30-year rates to hover near 6.8% through September 2025 and gradually decline to the mid-6% range by the end of 2026.
• Morgan Stanley strategists argue that slower GDP growth in 2026 could lower Treasury yields and hence mortgage rates, improving affordability but the timing and scale remain uncertain.

These forecasts are based on economic models that factor in inflation trends, Fed policy paths, housing supply, and overall economic activity.

Mortgage and Refinance Rate Comparison Table

Category	Current Rate % (July 26, 2025)	Rate Trend This Week	Forecast for End of 2025	Source
30-Year Fixed Mortgage	6.88%	Stable	~6.4%	Zillow, NAR, Freddie Mac
15-Year Fixed Mortgage	5.91%	Slight decrease	~5.8%	Zillow, Freddie Mac
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.01%	Decrease	Slight decrease expected	Zillow, Freddie Mac
5-Year ARM Mortgage	7.76%	Slight increase	Variable/Ambiguous	Zillow

Example: How These Rates Affect Monthly Payments

For a $400,000 home loan with a 20% down payment ($80,000), here’s how monthly principal and interest payments differ with today's mortgage rate compared to a forecasted lower rate:

• At current 6.88% for 30-year fixed:
  Monthly payment ≈ $2,540
• At forecasted 6.4% rate:
  Monthly payment ≈ $2,408

This difference of about $132 monthly can add up over time, demonstrating why even slight rate movements are important to borrowers.

Broader Housing Market Context

Moderate mortgage rates have contributed to:

• Predictions of increased home sales by 6%-11% in coming years.
• Slower but positive home price appreciation, around 2.5%-4% per year.
• Slight improvements in affordability could encourage more buyers to enter the market, while sellers might begin to list more homes as the rate lock-in effect eases.

Experts like Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economist) emphasize that mortgage rates remain one of the most critical factors shaping housing market demand and supply dynamics.

Final Thoughts: Navigating Today’s Mortgage Environment

As of July 26, 2025, mortgage and refinance rates reflect a period of relative stability but remain elevated compared to previous decades. Borrowers, whether purchasing a home or refinancing, face a landscape where careful loan type and timing decisions can save significant money.

The Federal Reserve’s policy moves, inflation outlook, and economic growth will heavily influence whether these rates inch higher, stabilize, or fall over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Considering all this, one sees a housing market cautiously gearing for growth but mindful of cost pressures, with mortgage rates acting as a linchpin.