New York Housing Market Trends 2025: Is the Tide Turning for Buyers?

Sometimes, what looks like good news on the surface can hide a few bumps in the road when you dig a little deeper. That's certainly what I'm seeing as I pore over the latest New York Housing Market Report. While inventory (the number of homes for sale) is finally growing, which is a welcome sight after years of tight markets, actual home sales took a noticeable dip in May. This suggests a bit of a mixed bag for buyers and sellers across the Empire State.

New York Housing Market Trends 2025: Is the Tide Turning for Buyers?

When I look at the recent numbers, it's clear we're in a period of adjustment. For a while now, it felt like homes were being snapped up faster than you could say “closet space.” Now, things are shifting.

The Headline: Sales Dropped, But Inventory Rose

The core takeaway from the New York State Association of REALTORS® (NYSAR) report for May 2025 is stark: closed home sales in New York fell by 10.9 percent compared to last year. We went from 8,807 sales in May 2024 down to 7,846 homes last month. That's almost a thousand fewer families moving into new homes in just one month.

My initial thought when I see a drop like that is, “Uh oh, what's going on?” But then I see the other side of the coin: housing inventory went up. This is the third month in a row that we've seen more homes on the market. Inventory grew by 3.6 percent statewide in May, from 27,806 houses in May 2024 to 28,810 available last month.

So, why are sales down if there are more homes to choose from? That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? It usually points to a few things working together, which we'll get into.

Key Numbers at a Glance: May 2025 vs. May 2024

Let's break down the main points from the report so we can see the full picture.

Metric	May 2024	May 2025	% Change	My Quick Take
Closed Sales	8,807	7,846	-10.9%	Significant slowdown.
Pending Sales	10,421	10,279	-1.4%	Slight dip, but still strong.
New Listings	15,279	15,745	+3.0%	More homes hitting the market.
Inventory	27,806	28,810	+3.6%	Buyers have more choices now.
Median Sales Price	$420,000	$436,000	+3.8%	Prices keep climbing.
Days on Market	54 days	50 days	-7.4%	Homes are still selling relatively fast.
Mortgage Rate (30-year fixed)	7.06%	6.82%	-3.4% (lower rate)	A little relief, but still high.

My Opinion on the Big Picture

This snapshot tells me we're seeing some interesting dynamics. The drop in closed sales, while stark, isn't necessarily a sign of a crashing market. It's more likely a reflection of moderation. Buyers are having to adjust their expectations, especially given that prices are still going up, even with more homes available.

I've been in this business for a long time, and one thing I've learned is that the market rarely moves in a straight line. It's more like waves. We had a huge surge, and now we're seeing some of that energy dissipate, but not disappear entirely. The fact that median sales prices are up for 22 consecutive months tells me there's still underlying demand, even if fewer deals are closing each month.

Diving Deeper into the Numbers

Let's unpack each of these key indicators a bit more.

The Sales Slump: A Closer Look at Closed and Pending Sales

Closed Sales: The 10.9 percent drop in closed sales is definitely the most eye-catching number. What does this mean for someone looking to buy or sell? For sellers, it means the days of multiple, over-asking offers might be slowing down. For buyers, it might mean a little less competition, but as we'll see, prices aren't exactly falling.

Pending Sales: These are a peek into the future. Pending sales tell us how many homes had an offer accepted and are just waiting to close. They slipped slightly too, down 1.4 percent year-over-year. This small dip, however, isn't as dramatic as the closed sales drop. It suggests that while the pace slowed down a little, demand for homes is still fairly robust. If pending sales fell off a cliff, that would be a much bigger red flag for me. The small dip suggests a bit of a pause, not a full stop.

My take: I think part of the reason for the closed sales dip, despite rising inventory, is that buyers are becoming more cautious. They might have been holding out for lower interest rates or more price drops, which haven't really materialized. This caution translates into longer decision times and, ultimately, fewer completed deals in a given month.

Inventory: The Buyer's Best Friend (Finally!)

For what feels like ages, the drumbeat in real estate has been “low inventory!” Buyers have faced intense competition, often needing to make quick, aggressive offers. Now, inventory is up again, 3.6 percent in May. This is huge for buyers. More homes mean:

• More Choices: You're not stuck with just one or two options.
• Less Pressure: You might have a little more time to think, get inspections, and negotiate.
• Potentially Better Deals: While median prices are up, more supply might put a tiny bit of downward pressure on asking prices or give buyers more room to ask for concessions.

My personal experience: I've seen firsthand the frustration of buyers in a super-hot market, getting outbid again and again. This growth in inventory, even if it's modest, is a breath of fresh air. It shifts the market slightly more towards balance, which is healthy for everyone in the long run.

Median Sales Price: The Unstoppable Ascent?

Despite fewer sales, the median sales price in New York rose by 3.8 percent in May, hitting $436,000. This is the 22nd consecutive month that median sales prices have increased. This blows my mind a little. Even with more homes and fewer sales, prices continue their upward climb.

Why is this happening?

• Strong Underlying Demand: People still want to live in New York, whether it's up north or closer to the city. There's a fundamental desire for homeownership.
• Inflationary Pressures: Construction costs, labor, and materials haven't gotten cheaper.
• Buyer Acceptance: Many buyers, especially those who have been saving and watching the market for a while, may have accepted that higher prices are the new normal.

My practical thought: If you're a buyer, this means don't wait for a huge price crash. While some individual homes might see price adjustments, the overarching trend shows continued appreciation. For sellers, it means your investment is likely still growing, even if your home doesn't sell in a week.

Mortgage Rates: A Small Glimmer of Hope

Mortgage rates stayed pretty steady in May, averaging out to 6.82 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac. Last May, the average was higher at 7.06 percent. So, we saw a slight drop, which is good.

• Impact on Buyers: Even a small dip in mortgage rates can make a difference in monthly payments. For a $400,000 loan, dropping from 7.06% to 6.82% could shave off about $60-$70 a month, which adds up!
• The “Lock-in” Effect: Many homeowners bought or refinanced when rates were much lower (think 3-4%). Selling now means giving up those low rates and taking on a much higher new one. This keeps some potential sellers from listing, even if they want to move. This “lock-in” effect is something I see impacting supply more than many realize.

From my perspective: These rates are still higher than what many buyers are used to, especially if they remember the super-low rates of a few years ago. High rates eat into affordability and can definitely cause some buyers to pull back or adjust their budget downwards. The slight dip is positive, but we're still in higher-interest territory.

Days on Market and Percent of List Price Received

The report also showed that Days on Market (DOM) decreased to 50 days from 54 days last year, a 7.4% drop. This means homes, on average, are still selling pretty quickly once they hit the market.

And, Percent of List Price Received edged up slightly to 102.8% from 102.5% last year. This tells me that sellers are still getting more than their asking price, on average. Combining these two data points provides a really interesting view of the market.

My analysis: Even with a sales slowdown, the quality of the sales that are happening are still strong for sellers. If homes are selling quickly and for more than asking, it suggests that the homes that are priced well and in good condition are still attracting competitive offers. The buyers who are in the market are serious and willing to pay. This isn't a buyer's market yet, not by a long shot, but it's not the frantic seller's market we saw a year or two ago either. It's a bit of a tug-of-war.

County-by-County Deep Dive: New York's Diverse Housing Market

New York isn't just one big market. It's a patchwork of dozens of unique local markets, each with its own story. The overall state numbers give us a general vibe, but the real insights come when you look at individual counties.

Let's pick out a few counties and see what stories their numbers tell based on the provided data.

Counties with Notable Sales Drops

County	Closed Sales (May 2024)	Closed Sales (May 2025)	% Change in Closed Sales
Allegany	34	18	-47.1%
Oneida	136	94	-30.9%
Richmond	280	182	-35.0%
Bronx	126	105	-16.7%
Kings	148	119	-19.6%

These are some significant drops. When I see a nearly 50% drop in Allegany (downstate by NYC), my first thought is that while it's a huge percentage, the number of sales is very small, so one or two fewer big deals can make the percentage swing wildly.

For places like Richmond (Staten Island) and Bronx, these are much larger volumes, so significant percentage drops here are noteworthy. This could indicate higher current prices clashing with buyer affordability. In Kings (Brooklyn), a 19.6% drop in closed sales is also a big deal. These urban centers often react differently to market pressures than more rural areas. My guess is that the high cost of entry in these areas, combined with current interest rates, is putting a squeeze on buyers.

Counties with Surprising Sales Growth

Not every county saw a decline! Some actually saw an increase in closed sales, showing the localized nature of real estate.

County	Closed Sales (May 2024)	Closed Sales (May 2025)	% Change in Closed Sales
Columbia	50	62	+24.0%
Chemung	67	80	+19.4%
Tompkins	48	66	+37.5%
Schuyler	6	12	+100.0%

These are interesting! Columbia and Tompkins (home to Ithaca) are areas that have seen strong demand, often from people looking for more space outside the really dense urban centers. The growth here suggests that despite state-level trends, some areas still have strong buyer activity. For Schuyler, which saw a 100% increase, it's similar to Allegany – the numbers are small (from 6 to 12 sales), so the percentage looks huge. It's good news, but it probably doesn't signal a booming market on its own.

Median Sales Price: County Variations

Even within the overall state price increase, some counties saw much steeper changes.

County	Median Sales Price (May 2024)	Median Sales Price (May 2025)	% Change in Median Sales Price
Essex	$232,500	$350,000	+50.5%
Franklin	$141,950	$205,475	+44.8%
Seneca	$151,000	$210,000	+39.1%
Orleans	$136,000	$245,000	+80.1%
Madison	$295,500	$219,000	-25.9%

Woah! Orleans County saw an 80.1% jump in median prices, which is absolutely massive. It's worth noting that its starting price was quite low. This could signal either new, higher-priced builds coming online, bidding wars in an incredibly tight market, or outliers skewing the data. Similarly, Essex and Franklin also saw large jumps over 40%, indicating strong appreciation in these specific areas.

Then, you have Madison County with a 25.9% drop. This is an anomaly compared to the state trend. I'd want to dig into Madison specifically to understand why. Was there a glut of lower-priced homes sold that month? Were there a few very high-end sales last year that skewed the 2024 number? These are the kinds of questions I ask when I see data that deviates significantly from the norm. It often points to very local factors, which is why a state-level report is only one layer of the onion.

Inventory Shifts by County

The statewide inventory increase is a positive trend, but how is it playing out locally?

County	Homes for Sale (May 2024)	Homes for Sale (May 2025)	% Change in Inventory
Allegany	78	104	+33.3%
Chemung	126	260	+106.3%
Jefferson	254	451	+77.6%
St Lawrence	38	79	+107.9%
Onondaga	339	591	+74.3%

It's clear that some areas are seeing much faster growth in available homes. St. Lawrence and Chemung's inventory more than doubled! This tells me that buyers in these specific regions will have a real advantage compared to what they faced a year ago. More choice tends to make buyers feel less frantic and gives them more leverage.

On the other hand, some counties saw inventory decline:

County	Homes for Sale (May 2024)	Homes for Sale (May 2025)	% Change in Inventory
Broome	290	223	-23.1%
Ulster	559	707	+26.5%
Kings	1,349	1,233	-8.6%
Richmond	1,157	735	-36.5%

While the state average for inventory is up, Broome, Kings, and Richmond saw fewer homes available. This scarcity means buyers in these areas are still up against it, facing competition and potentially fueling higher prices, which could explain the sales slow down we observed earlier in these very same counties. If there are fewer homes on the market and sales are down, it suggests a bigger problem with affordability or buyer sentiment than just a “wait and see” approach.

Months Supply of Inventory: How Fast are Homes Selling?

The “months supply” tells us how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new homes came up for sale, at the current sales pace. A balanced market is typically considered to be 5-6 months. New York's overall months supply rose to 3.3 months from 3.1 months last year. This is still a seller's market, but it's inching closer to balance.

Some counties are much tighter than others, while some are moving into more balanced territory. For example:

• Tighter Markets (Lower Months Supply): Monroe (0.8 months), Erie (1.4 months), Nassau (3.1 months), Dutchess (3.9 months). These areas are still very competitive for buyers.
• More Balanced Markets (Higher Months Supply): Columbia (4.9 months), Essex (6.2 months), Sullivan (8.0 months), Kings (8.4 months). These suggest a bit more breathing room for buyers, where homes might sit a little longer and negotiations are more common.

My conclusion: The New York housing market is vast and varied. What's happening in Buffalo (Erie County) is quite different from what's happening in New York City (Kings, Bronx, Richmond Counties) or in the scenic Hudson Valley. A savvy buyer or seller needs to look at the local numbers, not just the state averages.

Reflections and Forecasts: My Outlook

When I look at all this data, a few things become clear.

The Ongoing Battle of Affordability

The biggest elephant in the room for the New York housing market continues to be affordability. Prices are high, and while mortgage rates dipped slightly, they're still historically elevated compared to the last decade. This creates a challenging environment for many potential buyers, especially first-timers. My personal conviction is that until wages significantly catch up, or interest rates come down more substantially, affordability will remain the primary brake on sales volume.

I've talked to countless real estate agents and lenders across the state, and the sentiment is pretty consistent: buyers are feeling the pinch. They're often having to compromise on location, size, or condition to stay within their budget. This pressure, even with more homes available, can cause people to hesitate or pull back altogether.

Is New York Headed for a Buyer's Real Estate Market?

Based on this report, no, not yet, at least not statewide. While sales are down and inventory is up, key indicators like median sales price still rising, days on market still being low, and the percentage of list price received still indicating sellers get more than asking, all point to a market that still favors sellers, albeit a little less dramatically than before.

However, the trend is leaning towards more balance. If inventory continues to grow at this pace and sales continue to dip, we could certainly see some local markets shift towards a buyer's advantage within the next 6-12 months. It's a slow burn, not a sudden flip.

What I'm Watching Closely

1. Interest Rates: These are the biggest wild card. Any significant drop (or hike!) would immediately impact buyer activity and seller willingness to move.
2. Job Market: A strong job market generally supports housing demand. If New York's job growth slows down, so too might housing demand.
3. New Construction: The report shows new listings are up, but a big part of solving the inventory crunch long-term is new construction. Are builders putting up enough homes to truly meet demand, especially at more affordable price points? I always look at the pipeline for new supply.
4. Migration Patterns: Is New York seeing more people move in or out, and from where? This always influences local demand.

Conclusion: A Maturing Market, Not a Collapsing One

The May 2025 New York Housing Market Report paints a picture of a market that's becoming more mature and perhaps a bit more normal after a period of extreme hyperactivity. The dip in sales is a natural consequence of high prices and higher interest rates. The rise in inventory is a healthy development, finally giving buyers more choice. Prices, however, continue their upward march, fueled by persistent demand and inflationary pressures.