North Carolina Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

The North Carolina housing market in 2025 is showing signs of stabilization, not a crash, with a slight dip in average home values over the past year but a steady pace of sales, pointing towards a dynamic rather than a collapsing market. As of September 30, 2025, the average North Carolina home value stands at $332,681, a minor decrease of 0.7% from the previous year (Zillow).

Homes are typically going under contract in about 30 days, indicating continued buyer interest. While some areas might see minor fluctuations, a widespread market crash is unlikely. Let's dive deep into what this means for buyers, sellers, and anyone with a stake in the Tar Heel State's real estate.

North Carolina Housing Market in 2025

I've been watching the housing market for years, and honestly, no two years feel quite the same. It’s a living, breathing thing, influenced by so many factors – from what’s happening globally to local job trends. For North Carolina, 2025 feels like a year of adjustment, a moment where things are finding a new rhythm after a period of rapid change. Forget the doomsday talk; the data suggests something far more nuanced.

Housing Market Trends (September 2025)

Let's get down to the nitty-gritty of where things stand right now, drawing on insights from Zillow, a trusted source for real estate data.

• Average Home Value: As mentioned, the average home value in North Carolina is currently $332,681. This represents a slight 0.7% decrease over the last year. This isn't a sign of impending doom; it's more like a breath of fresh air after a period of rapid price appreciation. Think of it as the market recalibrating.
• Time on Market: Homes are flying off the shelves, or rather, getting signed for pretty quickly. On average, homes are going pending in around 30 days. This speed is a strong indicator that demand is still present, even if prices aren't skyrocketing. Buyers are making decisions, and sellers are finding their buyers.
• Inventory: We have 49,179 homes for sale as of September 30, 2025. This number tells us about the supply side of the equation. A healthy inventory is crucial for a balanced market, and this figure suggests there's a reasonable selection for buyers.
• New Listings: In September 2025 alone, there were 12,041 new homes listed on the market. This influx of new properties is important. It shows that builders and sellers are confident enough to bring more inventory online, contributing to the available choices.
• Sale-to-List Price Ratio: The median sale-to-list ratio is 0.987 (as of August 31, 2025). This means that, on average, homes are selling for just under their listed price. This is a key metric for understanding negotiation power.
• Median Sale Price: The median sale price in August 2025 was $353,333. This is the actual price homes are selling for, and it's an important figure to differentiate from list prices.
• Median List Price: As of September 30, 2025, the median list price is $402,000. The difference between the median sale price and list price highlights the negotiation that’s happening.
• Sales Over/Under List Price: This is where we see the negotiation in action:
  • 21.6% of sales closed over the list price (August 31, 2025). This indicates that in some competitive situations, buyers are still willing to pay a premium.
  • 59.8% of sales closed under the list price (August 31, 2025). This is a significant chunk, and it shows that sellers are increasingly willing to accept offers below their initial asking price to get a deal done.

What does this all add up to? It's a market where sellers might need to be more strategic with their pricing, and buyers have a bit more breathing room to negotiate. The frenzy of bidding wars seems to be cooling, allowing for more thoughtful transactions.

North Carolina Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

Looking ahead, the crystal ball gets a bit clearer when we examine forecasts for the rest of 2025 and into 2026. Zillow's projections offer a fascinating glimpse into regional trends. It’s not a one-size-fits-all story for North Carolina; different areas are poised for different growth trajectories.

Here's a breakdown of projected home value changes by major North Carolina metros, based on Zillow data:

Region Name	Projected Home Value Change (Q4 2025)	Projected Home Value Change (End of 2025)	Projected Home Value Change (End of 2026)
Charlotte, NC	0.2%	0.5%	2.8%
Raleigh, NC	-0.1%	-0.3%	1.4%
Greensboro, NC	0.3%	0.5%	2.1%
Winston-Salem, NC	0.4%	0.9%	3.0%
Durham, NC	0.1%	0.3%	2.2%
Fayetteville, NC	0.3%	0.8%	3.8%
Asheville, NC	-0.1%	0%	1.8%
Hickory, NC	0.3%	0.8%	3.2%
Wilmington, NC	0.1%	0.4%	3.1%
Jacksonville, NC	0.5%	1.4%	4.4%
Greenville, NC	0.3%	0.7%	3.6%
Burlington, NC	0.3%	0.8%	3.7%
Rocky Mount, NC	0%	0%	2.4%
New Bern, NC	0.4%	0.8%	3.7%
Lumberton, NC	-0.4%	-0.8%	1.3%
Goldsboro, NC	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.5%
Shelby, NC	0.2%	0.2%	0%
Pinehurst, NC	0.3%	0.6%	3.8%
Wilson, NC	0.4%	0.8%	4.3%
Mount Airy, NC	0.7%	1.2%	4.1%
Morehead City, NC	0.4%	1.0%	4.2%
Roanoke Rapids, NC	-0.2%	-0.6%	-0.4%
North Wilkesboro, NC	0.7%	1.3%	3.4%
Forest City, NC	0.7%	1.0%	1.9%
Sanford, NC	0.3%	0.8%	4.4%
Albemarle, NC	0.4%	0.9%	4.0%
Cullowhee, NC	0.2%	0.4%	3.8%
Kinston, NC	0.6%	1.2%	5.2%
Boone, NC	0.1%	0.3%	3.9%
Elizabeth City, NC	0.3%	0.7%	3.3%
Washington, NC	0.7%	1.1%	4.2%
Marion, NC	0.1%	0%	1.3%
Rockingham, NC	0.4%	0.9%	0.8%
Henderson, NC	-0.5%	-0.5%	0.9%
Kill Devil Hills, NC	0.1%	0.3%	3.6%
Laurinburg, NC	0.5%	0.8%	4.1%
Brevard, NC	0.2%	0.6%	4.7%

Key Observations from the Forecast:

• General Trend: The projections indicate modest growth for most areas by the end of 2025 and more significant growth in 2026. This reinforces the idea of a stabilizing market rather than a downturn.
• Regional Differences:
  • Coastal and Eastern Areas seem to be poised for stronger growth, with places like Jacksonville, Wilson, Morehead City, Washington, and even Kinston showing robust projected increases. These areas might benefit from continued population shifts and the appeal of coastal living.
  • Major Metros: Charlotte and Raleigh, while showing slight dips or very modest growth in the short term (end of 2025), are projected to see solid appreciation in 2026. This indicates underlying strength in these economic hubs.
  • Areas Showing Declines/Flat Growth: Raleigh and Asheville are projected to have slight negative or flat growth by the end of 2025, while Lumberton, Goldsboro, Shelby, and Roanoke Rapids show flatter or negative growth projections into 2026. These areas might be more sensitive to economic shifts or have less diverse job markets.
• What Drives These Trends? Factors like job growth, migration patterns, interest rates, and the overall health of the state's economy will play a huge role. For instance, strong job markets in Charlotte and Raleigh will likely continue to support demand, while areas with more specialized economies might be more susceptible to fluctuations.

My personal take? It’s always about supply and demand, but also about the type of demand and supply. Are companies moving to these areas? Are people retiring there? Are millennials setting up shop? These underlying human and economic stories are what truly shape housing markets.

Will the North Carolina Housing Market Crash?

Let me be direct: No, I do not believe the North Carolina housing market will crash.

A crash implies a sudden, severe, and widespread downward spiral in home prices, often driven by economic collapse, mass foreclosures, and a complete lack of buyer confidence. The data we're seeing simply doesn't support this scenario for North Carolina.

Here's why I'm confident in this assessment:

• Healthy Inventory: While not overflowing, the inventory levels are not at crisis lows, and new listings are consistently coming onto the market. This prevents the extreme bidding wars seen in recent years and allows for more balanced transactions.
• Steady Demand: Homes are selling within a reasonable timeframe. Buyers are still active, indicating persistent interest in North Carolina's housing. This isn't a market deserted by demand.
• Economic Fundamentals: North Carolina, as a state, has a diverse and growing economy. Major cities are hubs for technology, healthcare, and manufacturing. While there might be regional variations, the overall economic engine is strong enough to support housing demand. The influx of companies and people continues to be a positive factor.
• Mortgage Rate Stability (Projected): While interest rates have been a concern, forecasts generally suggest they will stabilize or even slightly decrease by 2025. This makes homeownership more accessible for a larger pool of buyers, which is crucial for market health.
• No Foreclosure Crisis: Unlike some historical market crashes, we aren't seeing a tidal wave of foreclosures. Homeowners have generally built up equity, and lending standards, while more relaxed than the immediate post-2008 era, are still more cautious than in past speculative bubbles.

What we are likely to see is a return to more normal market conditions. This means:

• Slower Appreciation: Home prices won't skyrocket at the pace we saw a couple of years ago. Growth will be steadier and more sustainable.
• Increased Buyer Negotiation Power: As the median sale to list ratio shows, buyers have more room to negotiate. Sellers may need to be more realistic with their pricing and be prepared for offers that aren't vastly over asking.
• Regional Divergence: As highlighted in the forecast table, some areas will perform better than others. It’s crucial to look at local data, not just statewide averages.

My experience tells me that markets rarely crash without a major systemic shock. While external factors like inflation or geopolitical events can cause ripples, the underlying structure of the North Carolina housing market appears resilient.

What Does This Mean if You Are Buying a Home in North Carolina?

If you're looking to buy a home in North Carolina in 2025, this is actually a pretty good time to enter the market.

• More Choices: With 49,179 homes for sale, you have a wider selection than in recent years. You can afford to be a bit more selective and take your time finding the right property.
• Negotiation Opportunities: The fact that a larger percentage of sales are happening under list price means you have a better chance of negotiating a favorable deal. Don't be afraid to make a reasonable offer.
• Less Competition: While homes are still selling in about 30 days, the intense bidding wars where buyers waived contingencies are less common. This allows for more secure transactions.
• Interest Rate Outlook: Keep an eye on mortgage rates. Even a small dip can significantly reduce your monthly payment and buying power.

My advice: Get pre-approved for a mortgage early. Understand your budget completely. Work with a knowledgeable local real estate agent who can guide you through specific neighborhoods and their current dynamics. Be patient but prepared to act when you find the right home.

Factors to Watch in the North Carolina Housing Market

While I'm optimistic about stability, it's always wise to keep an eye on the factors that can influence the market:

• Interest Rate Fluctuations: Any significant changes in interest rates, up or down, will directly impact affordability and demand.
• Job Market Performance: Continued job growth and new company expansions in North Carolina’s key sectors are vital. Stagnation or significant layoffs in major industries could slow things down.
• Inflation: While inflation has moderated, a resurgence could put pressure on general economic stability and consumer spending, indirectly affecting housing.
• Regional Economic Development: Initiatives that bring new businesses or investments to specific areas can create localized housing booms.
• Demographic Shifts: North Carolina continues to attract new residents. Understanding these migration patterns is key to predicting demand in different regions.

The Bottom Line: A Balanced and Dynamic Market

The North Carolina housing market in 2025 is not heading for a crash. Instead, I see a market that is finding its equilibrium. It’s transitioning from a seller’s paradise to a more balanced environment where both buyers and sellers have opportunities, and negotiation plays a more prominent role. The data, combined with my own observations of the economic and demographic trends, points towards steady growth and stabilization across most of the state, with some exciting potential in specific regions. Understanding these nuances is your key to navigating the Tar Heel State's real estate in the coming year.