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Why Housing Prices Are Essentially Meaningless

July 30, 2009 by Marco Santarelli

It took the Wall Street Journal an entire survey to prove what readers of this column have known for months: The housing recovery, as it plays out, will be a localized event, varying greatly city to city, neighborhood to neighborhood, street to street.

The Journal, god bless them, compiled housing data to compare inventory changes, months supply, price drops, unemployment, and default rates across 28 US metro areas. Unsurprisingly, bubble markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami look particularly horrid, whereas areas like Dallas (which avoided much of the housing mania) and cities like Charlotte and Seattle (which are just now seeing price declines accelerate) appear to be holding up rather nicely.

But drilling deeper into the raw data reveals a housing market that's deeply bifurcated, even within individual cities.

As low-end markets experience a sharp increase in buying activity due to supply shortages and vastly lower prices, illiquid high end markets are experiencing violent price swings — typically in the southward direction. This much is already known, and the Journal's study simply shows what we're told ad nauseam: real estate is, in fact, local.

What's far more applicable to home buyers and sellers around the country, however, isn't what a few broad (yet important) data points show about what's happening in a few hundred neighborhoods all lumped together. Instead, it's where individual submarkets are headed. After all, owning a home is an investment in a neighborhood, a street, a community — not necessarily a metropolitan area at large.

Housing prices, by extension — when measured as broadly as a metro area — are basically meaningless.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Housing Market Tagged With: home prices, house prices, housing, Housing Market, Real Estate Market

Should You Invest In The Mississippi Gulf Coast Real Estate?

October 24, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

Mississippi Gulf Coast Real Estate Market Conditions

Hurricane Katrina was our nation’s worst natural disaster – referred to as the “100 Year Storm”.  It destroyed 64,000 homes and 47,000 rental units.  But it also may have provided us with one of the greatest investment opportunities of our lifetime.

Prior to hurricane Katrina, the Mississippi Gulf Coast real estate market was showing significant strength due to the expanding casino market, expanding defense industry and baby-boomers looking for more affordable Gulf Coast living.  In many respects it offered people a similar but more affordable lifestyle than Florida, at a substantially lower cost.

Following the devastation of Katrina, many construction firms concentrated on the areas needing immediate clean up and repair work.  The Governor of Mississippi then announced that there was an urgent need for 100,000 new affordable homes to be built within the following 12 months.  But the true rebuilding of single family homes in the area has only recently commenced.  There were over 100,000 people living in FEMA trailers.  Today 30,000 of those people still live in trailers, and another 40,000 families are living with friends and family due to the severe housing shortage.

Other factors contributing to the increasing housing demand in the Mississippi real estate market include the job growth from larger employers such as the Kessler Air Force Base, the Stennis Space Center expansion, the growing aerospace corridor, shipbuilding, growing international trade zones, and the overall Mississippi business climate.

Additionally, Mississippi changed its gaming laws to allow casinos to build 800 feet onshore.  Many of the local builders were given lucrative construction contracts to repair and rebuild casinos.  Contractors were hired to work around the clock to meet tight deadlines on getting the casinos up and running.  Today the Mississippi gulf coast is the second largest gaming destination in the USA next to Las Vegas.

Recent economic studies show that the Gulf Coast area is recovering.  Statewide, gross state product and employment have surpassed pre-Katrina levels and a reconstruction boom is anticipated for the next five years.  Post Katrina employment growth in the state more than offset jobs that were lost due to Katrina.  Retail sales in the twelve months after Katrina are 19% above pre-storm levels, indicating further strengthening in the economy.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Growth Markets, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

National Real Estate Market Analysis

October 15, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

eppraisal.com released their National Market Analysis Report for the three months ending August 2008. Of the 188 market areas tracked across the U.S., 43.6 percent show a decline in median home values, which is up from 32.4 percent from the previous three months. This ends the upward trend from the last three reports where the number of markets showing an increase in median home values was on the rise.

Most markets in the report are showing signs of leveling out or increasing values, with California being an exception. California again tops the bottom of the list with 27 of the 28 markets tracked by eppraisal.com showing declining median home values. Chico, CA is the only market that is showing signs of rebounding (see figure below). For this report Chico, CA, saw an increase of 1.70 percent to a median sales price of $245,000.

Six California markets saw double digit declines: Madera down 10 percent, Bakersfield down 10.7 percent, Riverside-San Bernardino down 11.1 percent, Modesto down 11.3 percent, Salinas down 14.3 percent, and Merced down 11.5 percent.

Markets in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon continue to gain in value and continue to show signs of a changing market. For example, the Raleigh-Cary, NC, Florence, SC, and the Dayton, OH, markets all saw median home value increases of over five percent. Raleigh-Cary, NC, increased by 8.1 percent to $200,000, Florence, SC, increased by 8.7 percent to $106,000, and Dayton, OH, increased by 10.6 percent to $110,000.

Texas continues to hold on to the postitive trend while Florida starts to dip back into negative waters. In the last report 11 of the 20 areas tracked in Florida by eppraisal.com showed positive increases in median values. This month the number of Florida markets showing increases in home values is down to six: Fort Walton Beach-Destin up 9.7 percent to $203,000, Palm Coast up 8 percent to $175,000, Panama City up 6.7 percent to $176,000, Palm Bay-Melbourne up 5.7 percent to $156,000, West Palm-Boca Raton up 5.6 percent to $285,000 and Jacksonville up 1.7 percent to $183,900. Texas shows the opposite with seven of the 11 areas tracked by eppraisal.com showing increases in median values. At the top of the list sits McAllen-Edinburg with an increase of 7 percent to $115,875, Waco with an increase of 6 percent to 119,621, and Midland with an increase of 4 percent to $172,500.

See the complete list »

Filed Under: Economy, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

Riding Out the Real Estate Market Crash

October 13, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

Riding Out the Real Estate Market CrashReal estate has been regarded as one of the safest investments for quite some time.  However, despite the relative safety of real estate investments, there is always the possibility that the real estate market can fall just like any other investment.

Over the long term, real estate remains relatively safe simply due to the fact that the population of the world continues to increase while land is a limited resource.  When there is an occasional downturn in the real estate market, it is important to recognize certain strategies which can be used in order to keep a real estate investment from becoming a complete loss.

The first thought many people have when they realize the market has turned down is to attempt to sell the property as quickly as possible before the market gets worse.  In reality, most investors have found that it is often better if they can hold onto the property and ride out the market downturn.  While it is possible the market might dip lower before it rebounds, historically real estate markets always come back.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Investments Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

The Future of the Housing Market

October 8, 2008 by Marco Santarelli

The Future of the Housing MarketIn some of the worst housing markets in the country, deflation has reached double-digit proportions.  While housing woes have spread around the country, California appears to be poised to rank among the worse.  One of the primary reasons for this is the fact that in the last few quarters California has experienced the largest rate of deflating home prices.  In fact, home prices in California have fallen to levels that have been unprecedented.

Miami, Florida has also proven to be a difficult market at the moment.  The weak mortgage market and record high rates of foreclosures have led to declining home values as well.  In fact, Miami has been among the worst home markets in the country for two years running. The condo boom in Miami just a few years ago has further fueled the problems that have now spiraled into a massive real estate bust.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Economy, Financing, Foreclosures, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Market

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