Housing Market Alert: Over 600 Metros Will See Prices Decline by 2026

If you've been riding the wild waves of the U.S. housing market, you know it's been anything but boring. After years of dizzying price climbs, many are wondering if what goes up must eventually… well, at least cool down a bit. According to Zillow's latest crystal ball gazing, a significant shift is indeed on the horizon: Over 600 Housing Markets Are Expected to See Price Decline by April 2026. Specifically, Zillow's data points to 608 metro areas, plus the U.S. national average, bracing for a dip in home values over the next year, by April 2026. That’s a big number, and it signals a potential breather for buyers in many parts of the country.

Housing Market Alert: Over 600 Metros Will See Prices Decline by 2026

I've been following real estate trends for a good while now, and one thing I've learned is that the market is always in motion. These forecasts, while not set in stone, give us a valuable peek into what might be coming. So, let's see what it could mean for you, whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just stay put and watch.

The National Scene: A Gentle Cooldown

First, let's look at the big picture across the United States. Zillow is forecasting a national decline in home values of 1.4% through 2025. Now, that might not sound like a massive drop, especially after the double-digit percentage increases we saw in previous years. In fact, Zillow has actually revised this number up from an earlier expectation of a 1.9% decrease, so the projected fall is a bit gentler than previously thought.

Why the downward pressure? A couple of key things are at play:

• Rising Inventory: More homes are coming onto the market. This is partly due to softer sales volume this past spring. When there are more houses for sale, buyers have more choices.
• Buyer Hesitation: Even with more options, buyers haven't been jumping in as eagerly as they typically do in the spring selling season. There's been a good bit of economic uncertainty making people cautious. The good news? Zillow thinks this uncertainty might have peaked.

Think of it like a seesaw. For a long time, there were way more buyers than sellers, pushing prices up. Now, the seesaw is starting to tilt a bit, giving buyers a little more leverage.

But Wait, Some Good News for Sellers? Existing Home Sales Edging Up

It's not all about falling prices, though. Interestingly, Zillow also projects that existing home sales will actually increase to 4.12 million in 2025. That's a 1.4% bump from 2024. This projection is a tiny bit lower than what they thought last month (4.2 million), but it's still an increase.

So, what's supporting these home sales, even if prices are softening?

• Higher Housing Supply: More choice for buyers, as we mentioned.
• Moderating Policy Uncertainty: As things become a bit more predictable on the economic front, people might feel more confident making big moves.
• Small Improvements in Housing Affordability: Even a slight dip in prices, or a stabilization of mortgage rates, can help some buyers get off the fence.

From my perspective, this suggests a market that's rebalancing rather than crashing. Homes are still selling, just not with the same frenzied bidding wars we saw a couple of years ago in many areas. It points towards a healthier, more sustainable pace, which, in the long run, is good for everyone.

Deep Dive: Which of the 600+ Markets Will See the Biggest Drops?

Now for the main event. While the national average is a modest 1.4% drop for 2025, some local markets are bracing for much steeper declines by April 2026.

It seems like many of the areas facing the most significant projected drops are smaller metro areas, particularly in states like Mississippi, Texas, and Louisiana. Let's look at a few of the most impacted, according to Zillow's forecast by April 2026:

RegionName	State	Projected Decline by April 2026
Greenville, MS	MS	-16.2%
Pecos, TX	TX	-14.0%
Bennettsville, SC	SC	-13.9%
Cleveland, MS	MS	-12.5%
Raymondville, TX	TX	-12.1%
Opelousas, LA	LA	-11.3%
Alice, TX	TX	-11.1%
Helena, AR	AR	-11.0%
Zapata, TX	TX	-10.8%
Clarksdale, MS	MS	-10.6%
Houma, LA	LA	-10.2%
Natchez, MS/LA	LA	-9.9%
Bogalusa, LA	LA	-9.9%
Sweetwater, TX	TX	-9.9%
Hobbs, NM	NM	-9.7%

When I see numbers like these, especially for smaller towns, I often wonder about the local economic drivers. Sometimes, these areas might have experienced a boom due to a specific industry, and if that industry slows down, housing can be impacted. Other times, it could be a correction after prices rose very quickly, or broader factors like population shifts. For instance, some of these areas in Texas might have seen activity related to the energy sector, which can be cyclical. Coastal Louisiana towns like Houma and Morgan City (projected -9.5%) are also dealing with long-term challenges like rising insurance costs and storm risks, which can certainly weigh on home values.

It's not just smaller towns, though. Some more well-known, larger metro areas are also on the list for price declines by April 2026, albeit less dramatically:

• New Orleans, LA: Expected to see a -7.1% drop. This city has unique economic and environmental factors that always make its housing market interesting to watch.
• San Francisco, CA: Projected for a -5.2% decline. After years of being one of the hottest markets in the country, driven by tech, a cooldown isn't entirely surprising. Affordability has been a huge issue here, and a price re-adjustment might be overdue.
• Austin, TX: Looking at a -3.8% fall. Austin was another red-hot market, booming with tech and transplants. This looks like a correction after an incredible run-up in prices.
• Urban Honolulu, HI: A -3.5% projected dip. Island markets have their own dynamics, often influenced by tourism and high costs of living.
• Denver, CO: Predicted to see a -3.3% decrease.
• Portland, OR: Also looking at a -3.2% decline.
• Even major hubs like Seattle, WA (-2.7%), Washington, DC (-2.6%), and Pittsburgh, PA (-2.4%) are on the list.

Top 100 U.S. Housing Markets Expected to See Predicted Price Declines

Market	State	Forecast by May 2025 (%)	Forecast by Jul 2025 (%)	Forecast by Apr 2026 (%)
Greenville, MS	MS	-2.1	-6.0	-16.2
Pecos, TX	TX	-1.4	-4.3	-14.0
Bennettsville, SC	SC	-3.4	-7.0	-13.9
Cleveland, MS	MS	-1.0	-4.1	-12.5
Raymondville, TX	TX	-2.2	-5.1	-12.1
Opelousas, LA	LA	-1.8	-4.4	-11.3
Alice, TX	TX	-1.3	-3.6	-11.1
Helena, AR	AR	-1.0	-3.2	-11.0
Zapata, TX	TX	-1.9	-4.2	-10.8
Clarksdale, MS	MS	-1.0	-4.3	-10.6
Houma, LA	LA	-1.2	-3.4	-10.2
Natchez, MS	LA	-2.2	-4.9	-9.9
Bogalusa, LA	LA	-1.5	-4.0	-9.9
Sweetwater, TX	TX	-1.1	-2.9	-9.9
Beeville, TX	TX	-1.3	-3.4	-9.8
Hobbs, NM	NM	0.0	-0.9	-9.7
Magnolia, AR	AR	-1.7	-4.0	-9.7
DeRidder, LA	LA	-0.4	-2.0	-9.6
Morgan City, LA	LA	-1.9	-4.6	-9.5
Indianola, MS	MS	-1.9	-4.1	-9.3
McComb, MS	MS	-1.5	-3.8	-9.2
Selma, AL	AL	-1.8	-3.6	-8.9
Big Spring, TX	TX	0.0	-0.6	-8.9
Forrest City, AR	AR	-1.8	-3.6	-8.7
Natchitoches, LA	LA	-0.8	-2.6	-8.6
Lamesa, TX	TX	-0.8	-2.8	-8.6
Johnstown, PA	PA	-0.5	-2.9	-8.5
Lake Charles, LA	LA	0.3	-0.9	-8.4
Greenwood, MS	MS	-1.1	-3.4	-8.3
Kennett, MO	MO	-1.5	-3.3	-8.2
Vernon, TX	TX	-1.3	-3.0	-8.0
Camden, AR	AR	-1.7	-3.6	-7.7
Ukiah, CA	CA	-0.4	-1.8	-7.6
Alexandria, LA	LA	-1.3	-3.2	-7.5
Fort Polk South, LA	LA	-1.2	-3.2	-7.4
Plainview, TX	TX	-1.2	-3.1	-7.4
Portales, NM	NM	-0.7	-2.6	-7.3
New Orleans, LA	LA	-0.3	-1.5	-7.1
Lafayette, LA	LA	-0.7	-2.0	-7.0
Shreveport, LA	LA	-0.8	-2.5	-6.9
Rio Grande City, TX	TX	-0.7	-2.0	-6.8
Middlesborough, KY	KY	0.2	-1.5	-6.7
Levelland, TX	TX	-1.0	-2.4	-6.7
Meridian, MS	MS	-1.4	-3.3	-6.6
El Dorado, AR	AR	-0.9	-1.9	-6.6
Borger, TX	TX	-1.3	-3.2	-6.6
Carlsbad, NM	NM	-0.5	-1.7	-6.4
Mount Vernon, IL	IL	-0.8	-2.9	-6.4
Snyder, TX	TX	-1.0	-2.6	-6.4
Eureka, CA	CA	-0.6	-1.6	-6.3
DuBois, PA	PA	-0.2	-1.7	-6.3
Beaumont, TX	TX	-0.4	-1.5	-6.2
Roswell, NM	NM	-1.1	-2.4	-6.2
Midland, TX	TX	-0.3	-1.7	-6.1
Vicksburg, MS	MS	-0.9	-2.6	-6.0
Jacksonville, IL	IL	-0.7	-2.2	-6.0
Brookhaven, MS	MS	-0.7	-2.0	-6.0
Hammond, LA	LA	-0.6	-1.8	-5.9
Galesburg, IL	IL	-0.5	-1.8	-5.9
Fairbanks, AK	AK	-0.5	-1.6	-5.8
Laurel, MS	MS	-1.2	-3.0	-5.8
Gaffney, SC	SC	-1.2	-2.8	-5.8
Sikeston, MO	MO	-1.1	-2.6	-5.8
Woodward, OK	OK	-0.8	-2.0	-5.8
Macomb, IL	IL	-0.7	-2.2	-5.7
Fort Madison, IA	IA	-0.7	-2.3	-5.6
Burlington, IA	IA	-0.7	-2.3	-5.6
Monroe, LA	LA	-1.0	-2.3	-5.5
Odessa, TX	TX	-0.2	-0.9	-5.3
Pampa, TX	TX	-0.8	-2.3	-5.3
Jamestown, ND	ND	0.0	-0.9	-5.3
San Francisco, CA	CA	-0.5	-1.9	-5.2
Taos, NM	NM	-0.5	-1.9	-5.2
Kingsville, TX	TX	-0.6	-1.7	-5.1
Uvalde, TX	TX	-1.0	-2.4	-5.1
Altoona, PA	PA	-0.1	-1.2	-5.0
Clovis, NM	NM	-0.3	-1.0	-5.0
Texarkana, TX	TX	-1.0	-2.2	-4.9
Clearlake, CA	CA	-0.4	-1.4	-4.9
El Campo, TX	TX	-0.6	-1.4	-4.9
Troy, AL	AL	-0.6	-1.7	-4.9
Lincoln, IL	IL	-0.2	-1.6	-4.9
Port Lavaca, TX	TX	-0.9	-1.8	-4.9
Santa Rosa, CA	CA	-0.5	-1.6	-4.8
Deming, NM	NM	-0.9	-2.1	-4.8
Pine Bluff, AR	AR	-0.7	-1.9	-4.7
Batesville, AR	AR	-0.8	-1.7	-4.7
Sault Ste. Marie, MI	MI	-1.3	-3.2	-4.7
Marshall, MO	MO	-0.2	-0.8	-4.7
Dumas, TX	TX	0.0	-0.8	-4.7
Ruston, LA	LA	-0.2	-1.1	-4.6
Baton Rouge, LA	LA	-0.5	-1.5	-4.5
Chico, CA	CA	-0.2	-0.8	-4.5
Blytheville, AR	AR	-0.3	-1.2	-4.5
Williston, ND	ND	0.0	-0.7	-4.5
Dyersburg, TN	TN	-1.0	-2.4	-4.5
Silver City, NM	NM	-1.2	-2.3	-4.5
Andrews, TX	TX	0.1	-0.3	-4.4
Wheeling, WV	OH	-0.4	-1.4	-4.3
Corpus Christi, TX	TX	-0.4	-1.1	-4.2
United States		-0.2	-0.5	-0.9

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) Forecast (Forecast as of April 30, 2025) Note: The percentages represent the projected change in Zillow's Home Value Index from the base date of April 30, 2025, to the date specified. This table lists selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) from the provided data with the largest predicted housing price declines by April 2026, plus the U.S. overall forecast.

What does this tell me? It shows that the housing market isn't one single thing. It's a collection of hundreds of local markets, each with its own story. While national trends give us a general idea, what's happening on your street or in your town can be quite different. The broad reach of these projected declines, from small MSAs to big cities, suggests a widespread rebalancing is underway. Many of these areas, especially the larger ones, saw extraordinary price growth during the pandemic-era boom. A correction in such markets can be seen as a return to more sustainable price levels.

What About Rents? A Different Story for Single-Family Homes

If you're a renter, you might be wondering if you'll catch a break too. Well, Zillow's forecast here is a bit of a mixed bag:

• Single-family rents are projected to rise by 3.2% in 2025. This forecast was actually revised upward, meaning they expect stronger growth here than before.
• Multifamily rents (think apartment buildings) are expected to increase by 2.1% in 2025.

So, while home buying prices might be easing in many places, the cost of renting, especially a single-family home, looks set to continue its upward climb. Zillow notes that even though there's an increase in the supply of rental listings, strong demand for single-family rentals will likely keep that rent growth fairly stable.

My take on this? The demand for more space, which became super popular during the pandemic, is still a factor. Also, if buying a home remains challenging for some due to affordability or mortgage rates, they'll likely stay in the rental market longer, keeping demand (and prices) up, especially for those desirable single-family rentals.

So, What Does This All Mean for YOU?

This is the million-dollar question, isn't it? Let's break it down.

For Home Buyers:

If you're looking to buy, this forecast could bring a sigh of relief.

• More Options & Less Competition: Rising inventory means you might not have to make a snap decision or get into crazy bidding wars. You'll have more time to find the right home.
• Potential for Better Deals: In those 600+ markets, falling prices could mean homes become more affordable. You might have more negotiating power with sellers.
• Caution is Key: Don't try to “time the market” perfectly – it's nearly impossible. If prices are falling, you want to be careful not to buy a home that continues to lose significant value. However, if you're buying for the long term (5-7 years or more), short-term fluctuations matter less.
• My Advice: Focus on what you can afford. Get pre-approved for a mortgage so you know your budget. Work with a good local real estate agent who understands the specific conditions in your target neighborhood. Even if prices are projected to fall nationally or in your broad metro, your specific desired neighborhood could behave differently.

For Home Sellers:

If you're thinking of selling, especially in one of the markets expecting a decline, you'll need to be realistic.

• Adjust Expectations: The days of naming any price and getting multiple offers over asking might be on pause in some areas.
• Price Competitively: Your home will need to be priced right from the start to attract serious buyers. Overpricing in a cooling market can lead to your home sitting for a long time.
• Presentation Matters: With more inventory, making your home shine (good staging, repairs, curb appeal) will be even more important.
• My Advice: Don't panic! Homes are still selling. The projected increase in existing home sales shows there's still demand. Get a comparative market analysis (CMA) from a local agent to understand current values. If you don't have to sell right away, you could consider waiting, but there's no guarantee what the market will do next.

For Renters:

The news isn't as rosy here, especially if you're eyeing a single-family rental.

• Expect Rent Hikes: With rents projected to rise, especially for single-family homes, be prepared for potential increases when your lease is up for renewal.
• Competition for Good Rentals: Strong demand means you might still face competition for desirable rental properties.
• My Advice: If you're in a good rental now and can lock in a longer lease at a decent rate, it might be worth considering. If you're looking to move, start your search early and be prepared to act fast when you find something you like.

My Outlook on the Forecast:

As someone who's watched these market cycles come and go, the biggest takeaway for me from Zillow's forecast is that we're heading into a period of rebalancing. The frenetic pace of the past few years was unsustainable. A market where prices cool a bit, inventory rises, and buyers have more breathing room is, in many ways, a healthier market.

Remember, these are forecasts. The actual numbers could be different. So many things can influence the housing market:

• Interest Rates: The big one! If mortgage rates come down significantly, it could boost buyer demand and change these price trajectories.
• The Economy: Job growth, inflation, and overall economic confidence play a huge role.
• Local Factors: Always, always, always remember that real estate is local. A new major employer moving into a town can boost its housing market, while a major employer leaving can have the opposite effect, regardless of national trends.

It’s crucial to look beyond the headlines and understand the specific dynamics of the area you're interested in. The prediction that Over 600 Housing Markets Are Expected to See Price Decline by April 2026 is a significant indicator of a broader cooling trend, but your personal real estate journey will depend on your individual circumstances and your local market conditions.

Stay informed, do your homework, and make the decisions that are right for you. The housing market is always an adventure!