Las Vegas Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026-2027

The Las Vegas housing market experienced a surprising twist in December 2025, with a significant drop in median home prices to $470,000, a notable 3.9% decrease from November's record high. Despite this dip, home sales actually saw an increase, and with a shrinking number of homes sitting on the market without offers, it signals an interesting, if not entirely predictable, turn of events as we head into the new year.

Las Vegas Housing Market Update – What It Means for 2026

It’s been a rollercoaster for sure, hasn't it? Just when we thought we'd seen prices hit their peak for single-family homes, December threw us a curveball. But as a long-time observer of the Las Vegas real estate scene, I can tell you that these kinds of shifts, while sometimes jarring, often present unique opportunities. Let’s break down what these numbers really mean for you, whether you're thinking of buying, selling, or just trying to understand where our market is headed.

Home Sales: A Surprising Uptick Amidst Price Drops

As I review the report for Southern Nevada, one of the most intriguing aspects of the December report is the increase in home sales. We saw 1,802 single-family houses change hands, which is a healthy 17.2% jump from November. This is particularly interesting because, typically, a sharp price drop might make some buyers hold off, waiting for even lower prices. However, the data suggests the opposite happened.

Let’s look at it this way:

You can see that while December 2025 sales were just shy of December 2024, they were significantly higher than the previous two years. This year-over-year comparison is crucial. It shows resilience.

However, when we zoom out and look at the whole picture for 2025, the story is a bit different. Approximately 28,498 existing homes sold in the Las Vegas Valley last year. This is down almost 9% from the 31,305 homes sold in 2024. This figure is a bit sobering; it's the lowest we've seen since 2007, right before the Great Recession. For context, back in 2021, we had a record 50,010 properties sold. This indicates a tightening of the market in terms of overall transaction volume for the year.

Home Prices: The Unexpected Dip and Its Implications

The big headline for December was undoubtedly the drop in the median sales price of previously owned single-family homes, settling at $470,000. This is a $18,995 decrease from November’s high of $488,995, translating to a 3.9% dip month-over-month and a 1.1% decrease year-over-year.

Here’s a look at how median prices have trended:

Even with this recent drop, it's important to remember that the median price in December 2025 is still significantly higher than in prior years like 2022 and 2023. The all-time high median home sale price for single-family homes in Southern Nevada, set in November 2025 at $488,995, is still a recent memory.

The condo and townhome market has seen more pronounced shifts. The median sales price for these properties in December dropped to $275,000, a 9.5% decrease from November and a 5.2% decrease year-over-year. This segment has also seen a substantial drop from its all-time high set in October 2024.

Housing Supply: A Tightening Grip

Despite the price dip, the housing supply in Southern Nevada remains a crucial factor. In December, we had 3.5 months of inventory on the market. While this is down from 4.6 months in November (a 22.4% decrease), it’s an increase of 29.5% compared to December of last year (which had 2.7 months of supply).

So, what does “months of inventory” mean? Simply put, it’s a measure of how long it would take to sell all the homes currently for sale if no new homes were listed.

• Less than 4 months of inventory: Typically considered a seller's market.
• 4-6 months of inventory: Considered a balanced market.
• More than 6 months of inventory: Typically considered a buyer's market.

Therefore, with 3.5 months of inventory, we are still firmly in seller's market territory. This means sellers generally have the upper hand.

Another telling sign is the number of homes sitting on the market without offers. In December, this number stood at 6,396, a decrease of 9.1% from November. While this is still up considerably from previous years, the month-over-month decrease is significant and suggests that homes are moving faster than they were just a month prior. Coupled with the fact that 45.4% of closings in December happened with homes on the market for 30 days or less, it’s clear that buyers are still acting quickly when they find the right property.

Market Trends: Sellers' Market or Buyers' Market?

Based on the data, the Las Vegas housing market in December 2025 leaned heavily towards a seller's market. The low inventory of just 3.5 months is the strongest indicator of this. Even with the recent price dip, the demand, as evidenced by the rise in sales and the speed at which homes are selling, remains robust enough to keep sellers in a favorable position.

However, the nature of this seller's market is evolving. The fact that prices softened in December after a record high suggests that we might be seeing a stabilization rather than another aggressive climb. This can be a positive sign for the overall health of the market, preventing the kind of speculative bubbles we’ve seen in the past.

From my perspective, this moment presents a unique opportunity. For buyers, the slight dip in prices, combined with the possibility of scoring price reductions and seller-paid closing costs (which are becoming more common as sellers aim to close deals), means you might be able to negotiate more effectively than you could have just a month ago. It's important to act strategically, but waiting too long could mean missing out as inventory remains tight and prices could start to creep up again as we head into the spring.

For sellers, while it's still a seller's market, the days of receiving multiple absurd offers above asking price might be slightly less frequent. Pricing your home correctly from the start and ensuring it's presented in the best possible light will be more important than ever to attract serious buyers quickly.

The Luxury Segment: Still Shining Bright

It's worth noting that the luxury market in Las Vegas continues to be a strong performer. In December, 147 luxury homes (priced at $1 million and over) were sold, a notable increase from November’s 125. The median sales price in this segment also saw a healthy jump to $1,449,950. This data aligns with national reports suggesting that luxury real estate prices in cities like Las Vegas are rising faster than in many other major metropolitan areas. Since 2015, the median price for a luxury home here has increased by an impressive 161%.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Predicting the future is always tricky, but we can make educated guesses based on these recent trends. The cooling off we saw in December, characterized by the price dip, seems to be a recalibration rather than a crash. The underlying demand for Las Vegas housing, driven by population growth and a desirable lifestyle, remains strong.

I anticipate that the spring market will likely see renewed activity and potentially price increases, especially if interest rates remain stable or see favorable adjustments. The inventory levels will continue to be the key indicator to watch. If supply doesn't significantly increase, prices will likely be pushed upward again.

The question of whether median prices will continue to decline is a complex one. My gut feeling, supported by this data, is that the December dip was a temporary correction. We might see fluctuations, but a sustained downward trend throughout 2026 seems unlikely given the limited supply and ongoing demand.

Las Vegas Housing Market Forecast 2026

You're probably wondering, “Where will the Las Vegas housing market head in the next year or two?” The quick answer is, according to the latest forecast, a slight dip is expected in the short term, but not a dramatic crash, followed by a possible surge in demand in 2026. Let's dive into the details.

First, let's see where we are now. As of today, the average home value in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise is $440,327. Which is up 2.6% over the past year. It is important to consider that the “Las Vegas housing market” comprises Single Family Homes, Condo and Townhouses.

Las Vegas Housing Market Prediction

Zillow's predictions offer insights into the near future. Here's what you might expect for the Las Vegas area related to this “housing market forecast.”

So, what does this mean?

• Short-Term Dip (June & August 2025): Zillow forecasts a slight decrease in home values in Las Vegas, with a 0.1% dip by the end of June 2025 and an additional 0.3% decrease by the end of August 2025. This suggests a cooling-off period in the summer.
• Slight Decline Over the Year (May 2025 – May 2026): Looking at the longer view, Zillow predicts a 0.4% drop in home values from May 2025 to May 2026. This isn't catastrophic, but it signals that prices are unlikely to skyrocket in the coming year.

How Does Vegas Compare to Other Nevada Markets?

It's always good to compare regional trends within a state. Here's how Las Vegas stacks up against other Nevada metro areas:

As you can see, many Nevada markets are expecting similar or even larger declines. Elko stands out as a spot where prices are either stable or even growing slightly.

What About the National Picture?

To get a broader perspective, let's look at what's happening nationally. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expects a somewhat brighter picture nationwide:

• Existing Home Sales: Expected to increase 6% in 2025 and a significant 11% in 2026.
• New Home Sales: Predicted to rise 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.
• Median Home Prices: Forecast to increase 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
• Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and drop to 6.1% in 2026.

This positive national outlook contrasts slightly with Zillow's more subdued forecast for Las Vegas, where prices are expected to either dip slightly or stay flat.

So, Will Home Prices Drop or Crash in Las Vegas? 

Based on the data, a housing market crash in Las Vegas seems unlikely for 2025. The forecasts point toward a moderate adjustment rather than a sharp downturn. However, it all comes down to how much more supply is injected in the market.

What Happens in 2026?

Looking ahead to 2026, if the national trends hold true for Las Vegas, we might see a rise in home sales and moderate price increases. What the forecast from major financial institutions has shown is that mortgage rates are expected to decline, which will increase buyer affordability and demand. But until then, it is all in speculation, until new data emerges.

My Thoughts as a Real Estate Professional

In my experience, the Las Vegas market is unique. It's heavily influenced by tourism, entertainment, and overall economic activity in the region. While national trends are important, local factors heavily sway Las Vegas's market. Keep in mind that these are predictions, not guarantees. The housing market can be impacted by many things such as interest rates, migration patterns to the area, or even unforeseen economic shifts.