Jacksonville Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

The current Jacksonville housing market shows a slight cooling, with home prices dipping a bit from last month, but don't expect a crash. Instead, we're looking at a generally stable market with modest growth expected towards the end of 2025 and into 2026, especially as mortgage rates hopefully ease up.

It feels like just yesterday we were in a frenzy, with homes flying off the market faster than you could say “multiple offers.” But things are shifting, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Understanding these changes is key to making smart decisions, whether you're a first-time buyer or a seasoned homeowner looking to move.

Jacksonville Housing Market Trends Seen in 2025

Home Prices: A Slight Dip, Not a Dive

Let's talk about the numbers. According to Realtor.com's report, the median listing price in Jacksonville in September was $294,950. Now, here's what's interesting: this is a moderate dip from the month before. Usually, we see prices tick up in September. This year, however, the price per square foot actually decreased by 1.1% compared to the prior month.

How does this stack up against the rest of the country? Nationally, the price per square foot also saw a dip, but it was smaller at 0.8%. This tells me that Jacksonville's price adjustments are a bit more pronounced than the national average right now. But don't panic! A slight decrease from the month before, especially when compared to a typical seasonal trend, doesn't mean prices are crashing. It’s more of a sign that the market is recalibrating.

Here's a snapshot based on Realtor.com data for September 2025:

Metric	Jacksonville	National Average
Median Listing Price	$294,950	–
Price Per Square Foot Change (Month-over-Month)	-1.1%	-0.8%

Housing Inventory: More Homes, But Selling Slower

One of the biggest stories in the housing market is always about supply – how many homes are available for sale. In September, Jacksonville had 4,107 homes on the market. This is actually 3.0% less than the month before, which is a bit more of a drop than we usually see at this time of year. However, it's also 8.5% more than this time last year. This is a positive sign for buyers, as it means there's a little more to choose from compared to a year ago.

Nationally, the active inventory actually rose by a tiny 0.2% from the previous month. So, while Jacksonville's inventory tightened slightly month-over-month, the year-over-year increase is a welcome change from the tight markets of recent years.

Time on Market: Homes Taking a Little Longer to Sell

When homes sit on the market longer, it often signals a shift from a red-hot seller's market to a more balanced one. In Jacksonville, homes are now taking an average of 68 days to sell, according to September figures. This is just one day longer than the month before, but it's a significant nine days longer than the same month last year.

For comparison, nationally, homes were spending an average of 62 days on the market in September. So, homes in Jacksonville are still taking a bit longer to find a buyer than the national average, which again points to a market that's not moving at breakneck speed. This gives buyers a bit more breathing room to make decisions and perhaps negotiate.

The Current Market Balance: A Move Towards Buyers?

Based on these trends – slightly lower prices, a year-over-year increase in inventory, and homes taking longer to sell – we're definitely seeing a shift. It's not a full-blown buyer's market yet, but it's certainly leaning more in that direction than it has in a long time. Sellers might need to be more realistic with their pricing and be prepared for a longer selling process. For buyers, this could be an opportunity to find a good deal and have more options.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

Looking ahead is always the million-dollar question, right? What does the crystal ball say for Jacksonville? The forecasts suggest a gradual recovery and stabilization, with some key factors like mortgage rates playing a big role.

Here are some interesting insights into the future. The average home value in the Jacksonville MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) is currently around $350,205. Over the past year, this value has decreased by 3.4%. Homes are also pending sale in about 63 days, which aligns with the longer time on market we're seeing.

Now, let's look at Zillow's forecast for the Jacksonville MSA:

Forecast Period	Projected Home Value Change
October 2025	0.0%
December 2025	-0.1%
September 2026 (1-Year Forecast)	+1.3%

This forecast from Zillow suggests that after a slight dip or flatness through the end of 2025, we can expect to see positive home value growth of 1.3% by September 2026. This indicates a slow but steady climb back up. It's not a massive surge, which is good for long-term stability.

Jacksonville's Forecast vs. Other Florida Cities

It's helpful to see how Jacksonville stacks up against other major cities in Florida. Here's a comparison of Zillow's forecast for home value changes:

Region	Forecast: Oct 2025	Forecast: Dec 2025	Forecast: Sep 2026
Jacksonville, FL	0.0%	-0.1%	1.3%
Miami, FL	-0.1%	-0.3%	2.3%
Tampa, FL	-0.3%	-0.8%	1.0%
Orlando, FL	-0.2%	-0.3%	1.2%
North Port, FL	-0.6%	-1.5%	-0.1%
Cape Coral, FL	-0.6%	-1.6%	-0.3%
Lakeland, FL	-0.1%	-0.3%	1.2%

Looking at this table, Jacksonville's forecast for the end of 2025 is relatively stable compared to some other Florida cities like Tampa and Cape Coral, which are predicted to see larger dips. By September 2026, Jacksonville is projected to see positive growth, similar to Tampa and Orlando, but not as high as Miami. Cities like North Port and Cape Coral are showing a more concerning trend with potential declines even into the longer-term forecast. This suggests Jacksonville might be on a more solid footing than some of its southern Florida counterparts.

National Housing Market Forecast: A Brighter Outlook

What's happening on a national level often influences local markets. Zillow and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) both have predictions that offer a broader view.

Key Predictions from Zillow (Nationwide):

• Home Value Growth: Zillow expects home value growth to recover in 2026 after a flat 2025. They predict annual home value growth to reach a peak of nearly 1.9% by August 2026. This aligns with the idea of a slow but steady return to appreciation.
• Home Sales: The forecast is for home sales to end 2025 at 4.07 million, which is slightly better than 2024. This indicates more activity in the market.
• Rents: Rents are expected to continue cooling, growing at a slower pace than in previous years.

Key Predictions from NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun (Nationwide):

Lawrence Yun has an optimistic outlook, suggesting “brighter days may be on the horizon.”

• Existing Home Sales: Expected to rise 6% in 2025 and accelerate by 11% in 2026. This is a significant increase, pointing to more transactions happening.
• New Home Sales: Projected to climb by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026. Growth in new construction is important for addressing the shortage of homes.
• Median Home Prices: Forecasted to increase modestly, with a projected rise of 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. These are sustainable appreciation rates.
• Mortgage Rates: Anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dip to 6.1% in 2026. Yun calls mortgage rates a “magic bullet” because lower rates make homes more affordable and boost buyer demand.

These national forecasts are quite encouraging. They suggest that the market is moving past its most challenging phase and heading towards more consistent growth and activity, largely driven by potentially improving mortgage rates.

So, Will Home Prices Drop in Jacksonville? Can it Crash?

Based on all the data and forecasts I've reviewed, I don't believe we're looking at a crash in the Jacksonville housing market. While prices have seen a slight dip month-over-month, this seems to be a correction rather than a collapse. The year-over-year inventory increase and longer selling times indicate a market that's becoming more balanced, which is healthy.

The national and local forecasts point towards stabilization and then modest growth. The key driver for significant price drops or a crash would be something like a massive surge in foreclosures or a sudden, severe economic downturn. We aren't seeing those indicators right now.

Instead, the trend seems to be a move away from extreme price appreciation and towards more sustainable growth, especially as mortgage rates are expected to ease. This is good news for both buyers and sellers who are looking for a more predictable market.

A Peek into 2026 and Early 2027

Looking further out, if the current trends hold, we can expect the Jacksonville housing market to continue its gradual recovery. By the end of 2026, I anticipate seeing consistent, modest home price appreciation, likely in the range of the 3-4% predicted nationally.

With mortgage rates potentially dipping closer to the 6% mark, buyer demand should strengthen. This could lead to a slight increase in competition, but it's unlikely to return to the frenzy of a few years ago. The increased inventory we've seen year-over-year should help temper any rapid price spikes.

For early 2027, I’d expect this steady, balanced market to continue. If the economy remains stable and interest rates stay relatively low, we might even see a bit more acceleration in home sales and price growth, but still within a healthy, sustainable range. The ongoing need for housing in a growing region like Jacksonville will continue to support the market.

In essence, the Jacksonville housing market is transitioning. It’s moving towards a more balanced environment where smart decisions, realistic expectations, and a bit of patience will be key for anyone involved in buying or selling. It's an exciting time to be watching our city's real estate!

Jacksonville's Best Neighborhoods for Buying a House

Jacksonville's real estate market is sizzling, and some neighborhoods are hotter than others. If you're an investor looking for areas poised for significant growth, look no further than these top appreciating neighborhoods (Neighborhoodscout):

1. Biltmore: This revitalized historic district boasts stunning Spanish Revival architecture and a vibrant community. Over the past five years, Biltmore's property values have skyrocketed, making it a prime location for investors seeking long-term gains.

2. Paxon/Commonwealth: This up-and-coming area is undergoing a major transformation. With a mix of restored bungalows and new construction, Paxon/Commonwealth offers a unique blend of charm and affordability. Investors can capitalize on the area's potential for significant appreciation as revitalization efforts continue.

3. Edgewood: This historic neighborhood, located just outside downtown Jacksonville, is experiencing a resurgence. With its tree-lined streets and beautiful architecture, Edgewood offers a desirable living environment. Investors can expect to see healthy returns on their investment in Edgewood's flourishing market.

4. Allendale/Grand Crossing: This revitalized area near Ed Duval Park offers a mix of historic homes and modern amenities. Property values in Allendale/Grand Crossing have risen steadily in recent years, and the trend is expected to continue. Investors looking for a stable yet appreciating market should consider this area.

5. Woodstock: This eclectic neighborhood, bordering Riverside and Avondale, boasts a vibrant arts scene and trendy shops. Property values in Woodstock have grown significantly over the past five years, making it a lucrative option for investors.

6. Durkeeville/Edward Waters College: This historically black neighborhood is experiencing a renewal. With Edward Waters College acting as a community anchor, Durkeeville/Edward Waters College is poised for future growth. Investors seeking value and long-term appreciation should keep an eye on this area.

7. Lackawanna: This quiet neighborhood on the Northside offers a mix of affordable housing options. While Lackawanna may not have the same cachet as some other neighborhoods on this list, its potential for future appreciation shouldn't be overlooked. Investors seeking a more under-the-radar option with good upside might find Lackawanna attractive.

8. Edgewood Manor: Located near the Jacksonville International Airport, Edgewood Manor offers convenient access to transportation hubs. The neighborhood boasts a mix of single-family homes and apartments, making it attractive to a wide range of renters. Investors looking for a steady rental income and potential for appreciation can find value in Edgewood Manor.

9. Grand Crossing North: Bordering Grand Crossing, this revitalized neighborhood offers a mix of historic bungalows and new construction. Property values in Grand Crossing North have been steadily increasing, and the trend is likely to continue. Investors seeking to capitalize on an area on the rise should consider Grand Crossing North.

10. Moncrief Park: This historic neighborhood is undergoing a significant revitalization effort. With its proximity to downtown Jacksonville and growing cultural scene, Moncrief Park offers exciting possibilities for investors. While there may be some initial legwork involved, the potential for long-term appreciation is substantial.

Remember: While past performance is an indicator, it doesn't guarantee future results. Before investing in any neighborhood, conduct thorough research, consider your investment goals, and consult with a qualified real estate professional.