Austin Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

Thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what's happening in the Austin housing market? You're in the right place. The Austin real estate market is currently showing signs of stabilization with median sales prices remaining flat compared to the previous year, but inventory is significantly up. Let's dive into the specifics to give you a better understanding of the current trends.

Austin Housing Market Trends in 2025:

Key Takeaways from the June 2025 Austin Housing Market Report

Based on the latest data from Unlock MLS & ABoR, here's a snapshot of what's happening:

• Median Sales Price: $449,900 (No Change Year-over-Year)
• Closed Sales: 2,823 (Up 2.8% Year-over-Year)
• Sales Dollar Volume: $1.65 Billion (Up 4.5% Year-over-Year)
• Months of Inventory: 5.5 Months (Up 0.7 Months Year-over-Year)
• New Listings: 4,562 (Up 4.8% Year-over-Year)
• Active Listings: 15,360 (Up 18.2% Year-over-Year)
• Pending Sales: 2,706 (Up 3.5% Year-over-Year)
• Average Days on Market: 72 Days (Up 18 Days Year-over-Year)
• Average Close to List Price: 93.9% (Compared to 94.8% in June 2024)

Digging Deeper: Analyzing the Numbers

Let's break down what these numbers really mean for you:

1. Home Price Stability (For Now):

The fact that the median sales price hasn't changed compared to last year is significant. After the crazy price spikes we saw in recent years, this suggests that prices have plateaued, at least temporarily. From my perspective, this is a welcome sign of normalization. The frenzied bidding wars seem to be cooling off, giving buyers a bit more breathing room.

2. More Homes to Choose From:

One of the most noticeable shifts is the substantial increase in active listings (up 18.2%). This means buyers have far more options than they did a year ago. Remember when it was practically impossible to find a house, good or bad, that the banks had not already grabbed? Sellers can't automatically expect to get top dollar anymore.

3. Inventory is Rising:

The climb to 5.5 months of inventory reflects the increased number of homes on the market. The concept of inventory is pretty simple: it represents the time, expressed in months, it would take to sell all the homes currently listed for sale, assuming no new listings come to market. A higher inventory can indicate a buyer's market. This means that, statistically, buyers have some leverage. From my perspective, the sweet spot for a balanced market is usually around 6 months of inventory.

4. Sales Activity:

The rise in closed sales, though modest at 2.8%, hints at a stable level of demand. Also, the slight increase in pending sales (up 3.5%) hints at a level of ongoing buyer interest.

5. Time on Market:

The average days on market have increased significantly. This aligns with the increased number of listings.

6. Sales Volume:

As we see a substantial rise of 4.5 percent year-over-year in sales volume, this rise is driven by a combination of factors:

• An increase in the number of houses that have been sold
• Higher average sales prices as compared to the previous year

7. List price vs. Closed price:

As we see a decline in the percentage of original list price, buyers are able to negotiate better deals now.

What's Driving These Trends?

Several factors are influencing the Austin housing market right now:

• Interest Rates: Mortgage rates play a huge role. As rates fluctuate, it directly impacts affordability and buyer demand. I personally feel like rate stability will be a key factor in shaping the market's direction.
• Job Growth: Austin's booming job market has been a major driver of housing demand. While growth may be moderating slightly, the influx of new residents continues to put pressure on housing.
• Construction: New construction is adding more supply to the market, which can help moderate price increases. However, construction timelines and material costs can be unpredictable.
• Economic Conditions: Overall economic health, both nationally and locally, influences buyer confidence and willingness to invest in real estate. Any economic uncertainty generally causes buyers to pause, which further slows down the market.

My Take on the Austin Market

Here's my personal perspective, based on my years of experience in the Austin market:

The Austin housing market is in a period of transition. The days of runaway price growth seem to be behind us, at least for now. We're moving towards a more balanced market, where buyers have more choices and sellers need to be more strategic.

I believe that rising inventory will continue to be a key theme. As more homes come on the market, buyers will have more power to negotiate. This doesn't necessarily mean prices will crash, but it does mean that sellers need to be realistic about pricing their homes competitively.

It's vital to remember that real estate is local. What's happening in one neighborhood might be very different from another. Factors like school districts, proximity to amenities, and the type of housing stock all play a role.

For Buyers:

Don't feel rushed. Take your time to find the right property and negotiate the best possible deal. Get pre-approved for a mortgage so you know your budget and can move quickly when you find the perfect home. Work with a knowledgeable real estate agent who understands the Austin market and can help you navigate the process.

For Sellers:

Price your home strategically based on current market conditions. Don't overprice it, or it will sit on the market. Make sure your home is in top condition. Buyers have more choices, so presentation matters. Be prepared to negotiate. Buyers may be looking for concessions like closing cost assistance or repairs.

Austin Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026: What to Expect?

Here's the scoop: the Austin housing market forecast suggests a continued slight dip in home values. While not a crash, expect a gradual decrease in the near term. I'll break down the latest predictions and what they mean for you.

Right now, the average home value in the Austin-Round Rock area is around $451,858. That's according to credible real estate sources, and it shows a 5.1% decrease over the past year. So, prices have already cooled off a bit.

What the Experts are Saying: The Forecast

Let's dive into what the data is telling us. Zillow has some specific forecasts for the Austin area, and here's a simplified look at them:

Area	May 2025 Home Value Change
Austin, TX	-0.8%
Dallas, TX	-0.6%
Houston, TX	-0.3%
San Antonio, TX	-0.4%
McAllen, TX	-0.2%
El Paso, TX	0%
Killeen, TX	-0.2%
Corpus Christi, TX	-0.4%

• Near Term (June 2025): Zillow predicts a further 0.8% decrease in home values.
• Mid Term (August 2025): The forecast indicates an additional 2.4% decrease.
• One-Year Outlook (May 2025 to May 2026): Over the next year, Zillow is projecting a decrease of around 4.2%.

As you can see, the data suggests that the housing market correction is not only real, but also expected to persist. This could be great news if you are looking to buy a house for yourself, as you may get better deals to buy a home. However, if you are looking to sell a property, then you might have to reconsider your plans.

How does Austin compare to other Texas cities?

Take a look at the forecast for other major Texas metros:

City	June 2025 Forecast	August 2025 Forecast	May 2026 Forecast
Dallas	-0.6%	-1.5%	-2.2%
Houston	-0.3%	-0.7%	-1.8%
San Antonio	-0.4%	-1.2%	-3.2%
Austin	-0.8%	-2.4%	-4.2%

Austin seems to be experiencing a slightly more significant correction compared to other major cities in Texas. However, let's not worry too much, as this is only a Zillow forecast. The price movement is only determined by demand and other circumstances.

National Trends: What's Happening Across the US?

It’s also worth considering the national housing picture to contextualize the Austin housing market forecast. Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), has a more positive outlook. Here's what he expects:

• Existing Home Sales: Up 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
• New Home Sales: Up 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
• Median Home Prices: Up 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
• Mortgage Rates: Averaging around 6.4% in the second half of 2025, and settling around 6.1% in 2026.

These national trends suggest a potential recovery and stabilization in the broader housing market, so hopefully Austin will follow suit too.

Will Austin Housing Prices Crash? And What About 2026?

Based on the data, a full-blown crash in Austin seems unlikely. Instead, we're looking at a continued, gradual correction. Demand in Austin is still high, and the economy is relatively strong.

As for 2026, it's tough to say for sure, but if national trends hold true, we might see a slight increase in Austin home values. However, this would likely be modest, more in line with inflation and normal market growth.

My Two Cents

Predicting the future is always tricky, but here are a few things I'm watching closely:

• Continued Inventory Growth: I expect inventory to continue to rise in the coming months, giving buyers even more options.
• Moderating Price Growth: While I don't expect prices to plummet, I do think we'll see slower price growth than we've seen in recent years.
• Increased Negotiation: Buyers will have more leverage to negotiate, so sellers need to be prepared to make concessions.
• Focus on Value: Buyers will be more discerning and will prioritize value and quality over simply getting into the market.

I live and breathe this market, and based on what I'm seeing, I think a balanced approach is key. If you're a buyer, take advantage of the current dip and find a property that fits your needs. If you're a seller, be realistic about pricing and be prepared to negotiate. The Austin real estate market remains desirable in the long term, but it's undergoing a shift towards a more sustainable pace.

Is the Austin Housing Market Still Overpriced?

If you're thinking about buying a house in Austin, you're likely wondering: is the market overpriced? The answer, like most things in real estate, isn't a simple yes or no. Let's dive into the data and see what it tells us.

There's no doubt Austin's housing market has been on fire. A strong local economy, booming population, and influx of out-of-state buyers have sent home prices soaring. Studies show Austin homes are among the most overvalued in the nation, with buyers paying well above what the house might be worth based on traditional factors. Boise, Idaho, is the only city with a higher premium!

Before you write off Austin completely, consider this: compared to other major cities, Austin can still be affordable. While the median price tag is high compared to its own history, it's lower than giants like San Francisco or Los Angeles. Austin's cost of living is also generally lower, making homeownership a more realistic goal for some buyers.

Looking ahead, experts are bullish on Austin's long-term prospects. The city's strong and diverse economy is less likely to take a tumble in a downturn, and the growing population suggests continued demand for housing. This could mean your investment appreciates over time.

So, is Austin overpriced? It depends on your perspective and priorities. If affordability is your main concern, the high prices might be a hurdle. But for those seeking a long-term investment in a vibrant city with a healthy economy, Austin could be a good fit.

The most important factor? Understanding your own financial situation and goals. Carefully evaluate your budget and long-term plans before deciding to buy in Austin, or any market for that matter. Don't be afraid to crunch the numbers and talk to a financial advisor to make sure your dream home doesn't turn into a financial nightmare.

Are There Signs of a Housing Bubble in Austin?

While discussions about a housing bubble are common, Austin's current market dynamics suggest a more nuanced reality. While home prices have surged drastically over recent years, the recent market corrections do not necessarily indicate a bubble that is about to burst. Instead, the recent declines signal a recalibration of values within the market.

Economic fundamentals such as strong job growth, diverse industries, and lasting demand for housing help support the market long-term. Nevertheless, potential buyers and investors should remain vigilant and conduct thorough market analysis to understand both local and national economic indicators that could influence Austin's real estate landscape.

Which Neighborhoods in Austin Are Seeing the Most Growth or Decline?

Certain neighborhoods in Austin are emerging as hot spots for growth, driven by ongoing development and lifestyle appeal. Areas like North Austin and East Austin have gained popularity among younger buyers and families due to their vibrant culture, accessibility, and amenities.

Conversely, some traditionally desirable neighborhoods are witnessing slower sales, primarily due to higher prices and mature markets that may not offer much in terms of new inventory. Identifying which neighborhoods are growing or declining entails paying attention to broader market trends, demographic shifts, and the availability of amenities that cater to emerging buyer preferences.

Is Austin Still Attracting Out-of-State Buyers?

Austin continues to attract a significant number of out-of-state buyers, drawn by its dynamic economy, quality of life, and cultural offerings. Although there have been fluctuations in migration trends, the city’s reputation as a tech hub and cultural hotspot maintains its allure for many relocating from states like California, New York, and Illinois.

This influx adds layers to the housing demand, as newcomers seek to take advantage of Austin's unique lifestyle and employment opportunities. As long as the city retains its appeal, it is likely to continue attracting out-of-state buyers, contributing to both local market vitality and growth challenges.

What Impact is Austin's Job Market Having on Housing Demand?

Austin's robust and diverse job market plays a significant role in driving housing demand. Tech industries, educational institutions, and healthcare services provide stable employment opportunities that continue to attract new residents. With companies expanding and relocating to the area, the demand for housing—both for purchase and rental—remains strong.

Additionally, job seekers and young professionals are increasingly drawn to the city's innovative landscape, further fueling residential demand. As long as Austin's economic climate remains favorable, the impact on housing demand is likely to persist, keeping the market dynamic and competitive.

Should You Invest in the Austin Real Estate Market?

Austin's rapidly expanding economic industry is driving more people into the city which is increasing the housing demand. A number of reasons have affected the present situation of the Austin housing market, one of which is the high migration of firms and persons relocating to the city from Texas and out-of-state, which has led to a robust and varied economy that attracts people seeking opportunity.

A surge of people moving in, combined with rapid population growth and low mortgage interest rates, has turned Austin and its surrounding area into a sellers' market. Austin’s engine of job and population growth is not projected to slow down anytime soon—the biggest drivers of residential real estate demand. Its economy has diversified and strengthened over the past two decades.

Companies like Google and Tesla are moving operations to Austin. The software giant Oracle has also relocated its headquarters here. As more companies move here, that means more people looking for homes, and the city is also attractive to outside investors. With a steady influx of job creation in the pipeline, the housing market will continue to post strong numbers. Big companies moving here will also play into what happens to the housing market.

If you're considering real estate investment, Austin, Texas, is a city that should be on your radar. Known for its vibrant culture, strong economy, and population growth, Austin offers numerous opportunities for real estate investors. Let's explore in detail why Austin is a promising destination for real estate investment.

Population Growth and Trends

Population Growth:

• Austin has been experiencing consistent and substantial population growth for many years. The city's population has been steadily increasing, making it one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States.
• The city's appeal to newcomers is driven by factors like its vibrant tech scene, cultural attractions, and overall quality of life.

Trends:

• The population growth trend in Austin is expected to continue, with projections indicating a significant increase in residents over the coming years.
• As the city's population expands, the demand for housing, both rental and owned, is likely to rise, creating opportunities for real estate investors.

Economy and Jobs

Economic Strength:

• Austin's economy is robust and diverse, with a thriving technology sector, a burgeoning startup scene, and a strong presence of major corporations.
• The city consistently ranks high in terms of job creation and economic growth, making it an attractive destination for professionals seeking employment opportunities.

Job Market:

• The city's job market is diverse and dynamic, with a focus on technology, healthcare, education, and entertainment.
• Employment opportunities continue to draw individuals to Austin, contributing to the population growth and housing demand.

Livability and Other Factors

Livability:

• Austin consistently receives high marks for its quality of life. The city offers a vibrant cultural scene, excellent healthcare facilities, and access to outdoor activities.
• It's known for its music and arts culture, making it a desirable place to live for professionals and creatives.

Education:

• Austin is home to top-tier educational institutions, including the University of Texas at Austin. This draws students, academics, and their families to the city, further boosting the demand for housing.

Infrastructure:

• The city has invested in infrastructure and transportation improvements to accommodate its growing population, making it more accessible and commuter-friendly.

Austin Rental Property Market Size and Growth

Rental Market:

• Austin's rental property market is substantial and continues to grow. The city offers a wide range of rental properties, from apartments to single-family homes, catering to a diverse tenant population.
• The city's dynamic job market attracts young professionals, making it an ideal location for rental property investment.

Growth Potential:

• The city's population growth and job market strength contribute to the growth potential of the rental property market. As more people move to Austin, the demand for rental units is expected to rise.
• Investors can explore various rental strategies, including long-term leases, short-term rentals, and vacation rentals, to diversify their real estate portfolio.

Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

Investor-Friendly Environment:

• Austin's business-friendly environment extends to real estate investment. The city offers attractive incentives and a favorable legal framework for real estate investors.
• Real estate investors benefit from a strong property rights regime and a well-regulated market.

Tax Benefits:

• Texas does not have a state income tax, which can be advantageous for investors looking to maximize their returns.
• Investors should explore the tax implications of specific investment strategies, including property taxes and capital gains.

Market Resilience:

• Austin's real estate market has shown resilience during economic downturns, and it is considered one of the more stable markets in the country.
• Investors appreciate the market's ability to weather economic fluctuations and maintain its growth trajectory.

Diversification:

• Investors can diversify their portfolios by exploring various types of real estate, from residential properties to commercial and mixed-use developments, taking advantage of Austin's growing and diverse market.

As a real estate investor, Austin's population growth, strong economy, livability, rental property market size, and other investor-friendly factors make it a compelling choice. However, it's essential to conduct thorough market research, consult with local real estate experts, and tailor your investment strategy to your specific goals and risk tolerance. Austin's real estate market offers exciting opportunities, but informed decision-making is key to success.