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California Housing Market Decline: Sales Drop for 4th Straight Month

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

California Housing Market Decline: Sales Drop for 4th Straight Month

The California housing market is showing signs of cooling, with home sales dipping below last year's figures for the fourth month in a row. This trend, primarily driven by persistently high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, means fewer homes are changing hands compared to the same period last year.

I can tell you this slowdown isn't entirely surprising. We've been in a bit of a holding pattern, and the latest report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) confirms what many in the industry have been feeling. Existing, single-family home sales in July dropped by 4.1 percent compared to July of last year, settling at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 261,820 homes.

That's a noticeable dip from the 272,990 homes sold during the same month in 2024. It's the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines, which has pushed the year-to-date sales into negative territory.

California Housing Market Decline: Sales Drop for 4th Straight Month

Why the Slowdown? The Usual Suspects and Some New Twists

It's easy to point fingers at one single cause, but in real estate, it's almost always a mix of factors. The big one, and the one everyone’s talking about, is mortgage rates. Even though they've dipped to their lowest point since last October – averaging 6.72 percent in July – they still remain a significant hurdle for many potential buyers. When you compare this to the much lower rates we saw a couple of years ago, the monthly payment difference is substantial. This effectively prices some buyers out of the market or forces them to look at smaller, less expensive homes.

Beyond mortgage rates, I've seen firsthand how economic uncertainty plays a huge role. When people are worried about their jobs, inflation, or the general direction of the economy, they tend to be more cautious with big financial decisions, like buying a house. This caution translates into fewer people actively searching for homes and making offers.

C.A.R. President Heather Ozur echoed this sentiment, noting that “some buyers stepped back, waiting for more certainty in the market and broader economy.” It’s a rational move for many, and it directly impacts sales numbers.

Home Prices: A Slight Dip, But What Does It Really Mean?

While sales volume is down, home prices haven't taken a nosedive. The statewide median home price in July was $884,050. This is a slight decrease of 0.3 percent from July 2024, when the median price was $886,420. It's also down 1.7 percent from June, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.

This might sound counterintuitive—lower sales but only a small price drop? From my perspective, this is often a sign of a market that's rebalancing rather than crashing. When demand cools, sellers might need to adjust their expectations. However, California’s housing market is notoriously resilient due to supply constraints and consistent demand in many areas. So, a small dip in the median price doesn't mean a fire sale; it suggests a more moderate market.

Jordan Levine, C.A.R.’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, pointed out that with inventory reaching a plateau, the market is indeed cooling. He also offered a hopeful note: “Even with recent price declines, California’s median home price could still see a modest annual increase in 2025, provided the market stabilizes in the coming months.” That's the key phrase: stabilizes.

Regional Pockets of Activity: Not All of California is Moving at the Same Pace

It's crucial to remember that California is a huge and diverse state, and its housing market is equally varied. What's happening in one region might be completely different in another.

Let’s break down some of the regional highlights from the C.A.R. report:

  • Regions Showing Growth:
    • The Far North saw a modest 4.8 percent increase in sales compared to last year.
    • The Central Coast also experienced a bump, with sales up 1.7 percent year-over-year.
  • Regions Experiencing Declines:
    • The San Francisco Bay Area faced the largest regional decline, with sales falling by 4.1 percent. This is an area that often sets the pace, so its slowdown is significant.
    • Southern California and the Central Valley both saw more moderate pullbacks of 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

When we look at median home prices by region for July:

  • Regions with Price Increases:
    • The Central Coast led the way with a 4.9 percent gain compared to last year.
    • The Far North saw a 3.1 percent rise.
  • Regions with Stable or Declining Prices:
    • The Central Valley and San Francisco Bay Area median prices held steady.
    • Southern California experienced a slight 0.7 percent dip.

It's fascinating to see how different economic factors and local supply-and-demand dynamics play out across the state. For instance, areas in the Far North that might be more affordable or have different job markets could be less affected by national economic headwinds.

County-Level Snapshot: Where the Action (or Lack Thereof) Is

Drilling down further, the county-level data paints an even more detailed picture:

  • Counties with Strong Sales Growth:
    • Imperial County was a standout, with an astonishing 116.1 percent jump in sales year-over-year. This often happens in more affordable areas as buyers are priced out of more expensive regions.
    • Mariposa County saw a 91.7 percent increase, followed by Butte County with a 41.6 percent rise. It’s interesting to note that half of the counties with sales gains achieved double-digit growth.
  • Counties with Significant Sales Declines:
    • Mendocino County experienced a sharp 26.7 percent drop in sales.
    • Lake County saw a 22.6 percent decline.
    • Madera County was down 21.3 percent.

On the price front:

  • Counties with Notable Price Increases:
    • Mono County had the biggest surge at 56.5 percent.
    • Santa Barbara County jumped 32.4 percent.
    • Tehama County saw a 27.6 percent increase.
  • Counties with Price Decreases:
    • Trinity County saw the largest drop at 19.2 percent.
    • Mendocino County was down 15.0 percent.
    • Plumas County fell 14.6 percent.

This high-level view shows that while the statewide trend is downward in terms of sales volume, there are specific areas performing very differently. This highlights the importance for buyers and sellers to focus on local market conditions rather than broad generalizations.

Inventory and Time on Market: The Balance of Supply and Demand

One of the key indicators I always look at is the unsold inventory index (UII), which tells us how long it would take to sell the current supply of homes at the current pace. In July, the UII was 3.7 months, up from 2.9 months in July 2024. This is a clear sign that there’s more inventory available relative to the number of sales, which tends to give buyers more negotiating power.

We also saw that total active listings were up a significant 37.7 percent from a year ago, reaching a 69-month high. This is a big deal. More homes on the market mean less competition for buyers and can put downward pressure on prices. However, the report also notes that the pace of growth in active listings has slowed down, which might indicate that new listings aren't coming onto the market as rapidly as they were a few months ago.

And what about how quickly homes are selling? The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 28 days in July. This is up from just 20 days in July 2024. Homes are staying on the market longer, which aligns with the idea of a cooling market and more choices for buyers.

The sales-to-list-price ratio also confirms this shift. It was 98.5 percent in July 2025, down from a perfect 100 percent in July 2024. This means that, on average, homes are selling slightly below their asking price, a departure from the bidding wars we saw previously.

What's Next? Navigating Uncertainty

So, where does this leave us heading into the latter part of the year? The sentiment from C.A.R. is cautiously optimistic. The recent dip in mortgage rates is a positive sign, potentially bringing some buyers back into the game. However, the persistent inflation and economic concerns mean that the market could remain soft through August.

As a professional in this field, I believe the key will be stability – stability in mortgage rates and stability in the broader economy. When people feel more confident about their financial futures, they are more likely to make the significant commitment of buying a home.

For buyers, this period could present opportunities. With homes staying on the market longer and less intense competition, buyers might find more room for negotiation. However, it's still essential to be well-prepared and understand the local market dynamics.

For sellers, patience and realistic pricing are key. While the market isn't as frenzied as it once was, a well-priced and well-presented home can still attract strong interest. Understanding the current market value based on recent comparable sales is more critical than ever.

The California housing market is always evolving. While sales may be trailing last year's levels for now, it’s a complex picture with regional variations and subtle shifts that point towards a market that's finding a new equilibrium. Keeping an eye on mortgage rates, economic indicators, and local inventory levels will be crucial for anyone involved in buying or selling property in the Golden State.

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Filed Under: Growth Markets, Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: california, Housing Market

California Mortgage Rates Today See a Spike of 22 Basis Points – August 20, 2025

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

California Mortgage Rates Today See a Spike of 22 Basis Points - August 20, 2025

Are you keeping an eye on mortgage rates in California? As of today, August 20, 2025, potential homebuyers are facing a noticeable shift. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in California has jumped by 22 basis points, reaching 6.89%. This increase could impact your affordability and overall home-buying strategy, so let's dive into what's happening and what it means for you.

California Mortgage Rates Today See a Spike of 22 Basis Points – August 20, 2025

How Does This Affect You?

A 22 basis point increase might not sound like a lot, but it can add up significantly over the life of a loan. Let's break down how this impacts your wallet:

  • Higher Monthly Payments: With a higher interest rate, you'll pay more each month for your mortgage.
  • Increased Total Interest Paid: Over 30 years, even a small rate increase can result in thousands of dollars more in interest paid.
  • Reduced Affordability: If rates rise, the amount you can afford to borrow might decrease, potentially impacting the type of home you can buy. If you get pre-approved, ensure to get the latest rates so you get an accurate indication of what to expect.

Breaking Down the Numbers: California Mortgage Rates on August 20, 2025

Here's a look at the current mortgage rates in California based on data from Zillow:

California Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.89% up 0.21% 7.06% down 0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate 7.02% 0.00% 7.13% 0.00%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.84% up 0.08% 5.94% down 0.11%
10-Year Fixed Rate 6.01% 0.00% 6.10% 0.00%
7-year ARM 7.44% 0.00% 7.51% 0.00%
5-year ARM 7.38% up 0.11% 7.52% down 0.29%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

California Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.00% down 0.02% 7.00% down 0.03 %
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.05% down 0.13% 6.27% down 0.12%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.50% down 0.03% 6.46% down 0.03%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.66% down 0.17% 6.02% down 0.17%

California Jumbo Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.90% up 0.01% 7.13% down 0.18%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.17% up 0.04% 6.30% down 0.10%
7-year ARM Jumbo 7.42% 0.00% 8.00% 0.00%
5-year ARM Jumbo 8.06% up 0.37% 8.31% up 0.28%
3-year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

Key Takeaways from the Data:

  • The standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is indeed up significantly.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) show mixed movement, especially in the Jumbo loan category, demanding extra caution and meticulous review.
  • Government-backed loans (FHA and VA) show a continued decrease, presenting a silver lining for eligible borrowers.

Comparing California to the National Average

It's worth noting that California mortgage rates today are 19 basis points higher than the national average rate of 6.70%. This might be due to factors specific to the California housing market, such as high demand, limited inventory, and a strong economy.

What Can You Do?

If you're in the market for a home in California, here are some steps you can take to navigate these rising rates:

  • Shop Around: Don't settle for the first rate you see. Compare offers from multiple lenders to find the best deal.
  • Improve Your Credit Score: A higher credit score can qualify you for a lower interest rate.
  • Consider a Shorter Loan Term: While monthly payments will be higher, a 15-year mortgage can save you a substantial amount on interest over the life of the loan.
  • Increase Your Down Payment: A larger down payment reduces the amount you need to borrow, which can lower your monthly payments and overall interest costs.
  • Lock in Your Rate: If you find a rate you're comfortable with, consider locking it in to protect yourself from further increases.
  • Talk to a Mortgage Professional: A mortgage broker or loan officer can guide you through the process and help you find the best loan for your situation. I've personally found their insights invaluable in navigating complex financial decisions.
  • Consider Government Loan Programs: If eligible, explore FHA or VA loans as they may offer more favorable terms than conventional mortgages.


Related Topics:

Jumbo Mortgage Rates Drop Today: 30-Year is Currently at 7.01% – August 20, 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions Next 90 Days: August to October 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 60 Days

Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: July-Sept 2025

Fixed vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages: Weighing the Options

With rates fluctuating, you might be wondering about fixed-rate versus adjustable-rate mortgages.

  • Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Offer stability with an interest rate that remains consistent throughout the loan term. This is good for budgeting and predictability.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): Start with a lower interest rate that adjusts after a set period. While potentially saving money initially, they carry the risk of rate increases. You need to evaluate your risk appetite carefully.

The Importance of APR

As the data shows, the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) is crucial for comparing loans. It reflects the total cost of borrowing. It includes not only the interest rate, but also lender fees, points, and other charges. Focusing on APR provides a more accurate picture of the true cost of your mortgage.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for California Mortgage Rates?

Predicting future mortgage rates is difficult because numerous economic factors can influence the market.

  • Keep an eye on inflation reports and the Federal Reserve announcement, as these often drive rate movements. Market signals now strongly suggest an 85-95% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting, according to tools like the CME FedWatch Tool.
  • Monitor housing market trends in California, as strong demand can put upward pressure on rates.
  • Don't panic! Mortgage rates fluctuate, and there are always opportunities for informed homebuyers to find favorable loans.

Final Thoughts: The jump in California mortgage rates today, highlights the importance of staying informed and prepared when navigating the home-buying process. By understanding the factors influencing rates, exploring your options, and working with experienced professionals, you can make informed decisions and achieve your homeownership goals. Good luck!

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

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Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
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  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
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  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
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  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
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Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: California Mortgage Rates, Interest Rate, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, Mortgage Rates Today

New Housing Construction: Starts Rise, Permits Fall in July 2025

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

New Housing Construction

Are you curious about the state of new housing construction? Do you want to know where the housing market is headed? Here's the bottom line: New housing starts are up, suggesting a potential rebound, but permits are down, indicating caution ahead. July 2025 saw a mixed bag of signals, with starts exceeding expectations but underlying uncertainties persisting.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, overall housing starts increased 5.2% monthly in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units. Overall, permits fell 2.8% monthly to 1.35 million annualized.

New housing construction trends are influencing everything from the size and design of homes to the materials used and the technologies incorporated. In the recent months, we have seen the new housing construction starts fall in the United States.

Housing Starts refer to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during any particular month. Estimates of housing starts include units in structures being rebuilt on an existing foundation.

Building permits, on the other hand, are issued by local governments to allow builders to begin the construction of a new home or to make significant renovations to an existing home. Building permits are usually required for any new construction or remodeling that involves changes to the structural or mechanical systems of a home.

Housing construction refers to the actual building of the residential structure, which includes everything from laying the foundation to framing the walls, installing electrical and plumbing systems, and finishing the interior and exterior of the building.

The sequence of new housing construction events typically goes as follows:

A builder obtains a building permit from the local government, which allows them to start construction on a new housing unit.
Once construction begins, it is counted as a housing start. The construction process continues until the housing unit is completed and ready for occupancy, at which point it is considered part of the housing stock.

So, building permits come first, followed by housing starts, and then housing construction. However, it is important to note that not all permits lead to starts and not all starts to lead to completed construction. Some permits may expire before construction begins, and some starts may be delayed or canceled due to various reasons such as changes in market conditions or financing issues.

New Housing Construction: Starts, Permits, Completions 2025

New Housing Construction: Starts, Permits, Completions 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Building Permits: A Glimpse into the Future

Building permits are like tea leaves for the housing market. They tell us what builders are planning to do in the coming months. When permit numbers decline, it suggests builders are becoming more cautious about starting new projects.

Here's a quick look at the July 2025 permit data:

  • Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits: 1,354,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • This is 2.8% below the revised June rate of 1,393,000.
  • It is also 5.7% below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.
  • Single-family authorizations: 870,000 (a slight increase of 0.5% from June)
  • Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more: 430,000

What does this tell us? While single-family permits saw a tiny uptick, the overall trend is downward. This indicates that builders are becoming less confident in the market's short-term prospects. High interest rates and rising construction costs could be playing a role in this decision to build less.

Housing Starts: Breaking Ground

While permits reflect future intentions, housing starts show us what's actually happening on the ground right now. These are the number of new homes that builders have begun constructing.

Here's the July 2025 housing starts data:

  • Privately-owned housing starts: 1,428,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • 5.2% above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000
  • 12.9% above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000
  • Single-family housing starts: 939,000 (2.8% above the revised June figure)
  • Units in buildings with five units or more: 470,000

This data paints a more optimistic picture than the permit numbers. Housing starts are up across the board, suggesting that builders are still pushing forward with projects, possibly fueled by a need to meet existing demand. Perhaps they are optimistic about the longer term, betting that rates will eventually come down and that demand will continue to grow.

Regional Trends in Housing Starts:

Interestingly, there are significant regional differences in housing starts. Here's a summary of combined single-family and multifamily starts on a year-to-date basis:

  • Northeast: 10.2% higher
  • Midwest: 17.7% higher
  • South: 2.4% lower
  • West: 0.5% lower

The South's surprising drop is interesting. The region is one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S, particularly for single-family construction activity, getting an unexpected boost in July, powered by a building surge. Single-family starts rose 13% on the month and 22% annually.

Housing Completions: Bringing Homes to Market

The final piece of the puzzle is housing completions. This tells us how many new homes are actually finished and ready for occupancy.

Here's the July 2025 housing completion data:

  • Privately-owned housing completions: 1,415,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
  • 6.0% above the revised June estimate of 1,335,000
  • 13.5% below the July 2024 rate of 1,635,000
  • Single-family housing completions: 1,022,000 (11.6% above the revised June rate)
  • Units in buildings with five units or more: 385,000

Completions also rose in July but are lower year-on-year, suggesting perhaps that supply-chain issues from the past are still slowing down construction or that builders are still very cautious about building beyond existing demand.

The Big Picture: What Does It All Mean?

So how do we make sense of these seemingly contradictory numbers? Here's my take:

  • Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Optimism: The drop in building permits suggests builders are wary about the short-term outlook. They're likely factoring in the impact of high interest rates, inflation, and persistent supply chain issues. However, the rise in housing starts indicates they are still committed to meeting existing demand and are perhaps optimistic about the longer-term prospects of the market.
  • Regional Variations are Key: The housing market is not monolithic. Conditions vary significantly depending on the region. The Northeast and Midwest are seeing stronger growth in new construction, while the South and West are experiencing slowdowns. I expect it to be more of a nuanced and hyper-localized trend, given the overall macro-economic picture.
  • Multifamily Driving Growth Multifamily construction has rebounded after falling to a 10-year low in 2024 – mainly to cater to affordability challenges in the single-family market, which have kept young families renting for much longer.
  • Affordability Remains a Major Challenge: Even with the increase in housing starts and completions, affordability remains a significant hurdle for many prospective homebuyers. Persistently high mortgage rates and rising home prices are making it difficult for people to enter the market.

What to Watch For

Going forward, here are some key factors to keep an eye on:

  • Interest Rates: Any significant movements in interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market
  • Inflation: Continued high inflation will put pressure on construction costs and consumer spending
  • Supply Chain Issues: Disruptions to the supply chain can delay projects and increase costs
  • Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about the economy will definitely influence their willingness to buy homes.

While the new housing construction market in 2025 presents a mixed picture, I believe that fundamental demand and supply imbalance could still drive growth. While starts are exceeding permits in some cases, more construction is needed and these numbers are always subject to change. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed will be key for those looking to navigate the complex world of real estate.

New Housing Construction Forecast 2025

So, what does all this mean for the rest of 2025? Here are a few key takeaways and factors to watch:

  1. Interest Rate Sensitivity: The housing market is extremely sensitive to interest rate changes. If rates stay high, affordability will remain a challenge, potentially dampening demand and construction activity.
  2. Construction Costs: Builders are always keeping an eye on the cost of materials and labor. If these costs continue to rise, it could put further pressure on housing prices and construction timelines.
  3. Government Policies: Government policies related to zoning, regulations, and incentives can have a big impact on housing construction. For example, streamlining the permitting process can help builders get projects off the ground more quickly.
  4. Tariffs: There have been discussions on tariffs on materials, especially from countries like China and Canada. These tariffs would further increase the cost of construction and decrease production.
  5. Regulatory Reforms: Regulatory reforms can help decrease the cost to builders and therefore help reduce home prices.

My Thoughts

Having followed the housing market for several years, I believe we're at a bit of a turning point. The days of rapid price appreciation and frenzied buying seem to be behind us, at least for now.

Here are a few of my observations:

  • The need for affordable housing is critical. We need innovative solutions to make housing more accessible to a wider range of people. This could include things like smaller homes, accessory dwelling units (ADUs), and more efficient building techniques.
  • Builders need to adapt to changing consumer preferences. Buyers are increasingly interested in energy-efficient homes, smart home technology, and flexible living spaces. Builders who can meet these demands will be better positioned for success.
  • Local governments play a crucial role in shaping the housing market. By streamlining the permitting process, reducing unnecessary regulations, and investing in infrastructure, local governments can create a more favorable environment for housing construction.

Policy Paths: A Call for Action

Given the persistent affordability concerns, reducing inefficient regulatory costs offers the best policy path to improve attainable housing supply and bring down shelter inflation. This requires a collaborative effort from policymakers, builders, and community stakeholders. We have to find creative solutions that address the challenges facing the housing market.

Conclusion:

The new housing construction trends and forecast for 2025 suggest a market that's still finding its footing. While there are challenges, there are also opportunities. By understanding the key trends and factors at play, you can make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. I believe that a balanced approach, combining thoughtful planning with innovative solutions, is essential to navigating the dynamic housing market of 2025 and beyond.

Recommended Read:

  • New Home Sales Trends and Forecast 2025
  • Pending Home Sales Trends and Forecast 2025
  • Historical Home Sales Data in the United States
  • Single-Family Homes Construction Surges in September 2024
  • High Mortgage Rates Impact New Construction: Builders Pull Back
  • Benefits of Investing in New Construction Real Estate

Filed Under: Housing Market

Jumbo Mortgage Rates Drop Today: 30-Year is Currently at 7.01% – August 20, 2025

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Jumbo Mortgage Rates Drop Today: 30-Year is Currently at 7.01% - August 20, 2025

Are you dreaming of buying a luxury home or a property in a high-cost area? Then you're probably looking into jumbo mortgage rates today. According to Zillow, as of August 20, 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate jumbo mortgage is around 7.01%. However, this is just a snapshot in time. The mortgage world is always changing, and I'm here to break down what's happening with jumbo rates, what's driving them, and what you can expect in the near future.

Jumbo Mortgage Rates Drop Today: 30-Year is Currently at 7.01% – August 20, 2025

What Are Jumbo Loans Anyway?

Before diving into the numbers, let's clarify what a jumbo loan actually is. Simply put, it’s a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limits set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These limits vary by location, but generally, if you need to borrow more than the conforming limit for your area, you'll be looking at a jumbo loan. And because these loans aren't backed by those government-sponsored enterprises, they often come with slightly higher interest rates and stricter qualification requirements.

A Quick Look at Current Jumbo Mortgage Rates

Here's a more detailed look at the rates I'm seeing right now (August 20, 2025 – Zillow):

  • 30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo: 7.01% (down 0.04% from last week) with an APR of 7.33% (down 0.14% from last week)
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo: 6.33% (down 0.02% from last week) with an APR of 6.52% (down 0.10% from last week)
  • 7-Year ARM Jumbo: 7.53% (unchanged from last week) with an APR of 7.70% (unchanged from last week)
  • 5-Year ARM Jumbo: 7.28% (up 0.09% from last week) with an APR of 7.92% (up 0.13% from last week)

As you can see, there's a variety of options available, with varying rates. It's interesting to note that the fixed rates are down from last week, while the 5-year ARM has jumped a bit. This highlights the market's sensitivity to economic news and future expectations.

Understanding the Factors Driving Jumbo Mortgage Rates

So, why are jumbo mortgage rates where they are today? Several factors are at play:

  • The Federal Reserve (The Fed): The Fed's monetary policy decisions are a huge influence on mortgage rates. After aggressively raising rates to combat inflation, the Fed is expected to cut rates soon. We'll delve deeper into this soon.
  • Inflation: Even though inflation has cooled down a bit, it's still a concern. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may be hesitant to cut rates aggressively.
  • The Economy: Overall economic health plays a role. Strong economic growth can lead to higher rates, while a slowing economy can push them down. Right now, we're seeing mixed signals – growth is slowing, but the labor market is still relatively tight.
  • Investor Confidence: The market's overall appetite for risk impacts mortgage-backed securities, which in turn influences mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve's Role: A Deep Dive

Let's zoom in on the Fed because its actions are the biggest driver of mortgage rate trends. Here's a quick recap of their recent activity:

  • 2021-2023: Rate Hike Frenzy: The Fed hiked the federal funds rate by a whopping 5.25 percentage points to fight inflation. This sent mortgage rates soaring to 20-year highs. I remember how frustrating it was for potential homebuyers at the time!
  • Late 2024: The Pivot: The Fed finally paused rate hikes and even cut rates three times between September and December.
  • 2025: A Year of Waiting: The Fed has held steady on rates for the first half of 2025, creating a lot of uncertainty.

Right now (mid-2025), opinions are divided within the Fed. Some members are pushing for immediate rate cuts to stimulate the slowing economy, while others are hesitant due to persistent inflation.

The Anticipated September Rate Cut: What to Expect

The good news is that most market indicators point to a high probability of a rate cut at the September 16-17 Fed meeting. Currently, models like the CME FedWatch Tool suggest an 85-95% chance of a cut. This is built on the expectation of:

  • Cooling Inflation: The CPI has been moderating, which is a positive sign.
  • Weakening Labor Market: Unemployment has risen, and job growth is slowing, giving the Fed more reason to act.
  • Predicted Slowdown: Economic forecasts are pointing towards a slowdown, increasing the need for stimulus.

Keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22. This could offer further clues about the Fed's intentions.

How a September Rate Cut Could Impact You

If the Fed does cut rates in September, here's what I anticipate:

  • Lower Mortgage Rates: A cut should finally initiate a sustained downward trend in mortgage rates, including jumbo rates.
  • Boost to the Economy: Lower borrowing costs should spur business investment and overall economic activity.
  • Market Movement: Expect activity in both the stock and bond markets.

The Fed itself projected two rate cuts in 2025. A September cut would be the first, potentially bringing mortgage rates closer to 6% by the end of the year. Of course, unexpected economic developments could always change the Fed's plans.


Related Topics:

Mortgage Rates Predictions Next 90 Days: August to October 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 60 Days

Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: July-Sept 2025

Key Dates and What to Watch For

Here's a timeline of what's coming up:

Date Event Significance
August 22, 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Fed Chair Powell Speech, potential hints about September decision
September 16-17, 2025 Federal Reserve Meeting Highly anticipated rate cut; updated economic projections will be released
December 2025 Federal Reserve Meeting Opportunity for a second rate cut to complete the projected easing cycle

What This Means for Borrowers Like You

  • Current Homebuyers: While rates are still high, the strong signal for a September cut suggests that relief is on the horizon. Don't give up hope!
  • Refinancers: If you have a mortgage rate above 7%, keep a close eye on the September meeting. This could be the trigger for a new wave of refinancing opportunities.
  • Investors: The bond markets are volatile, especially with the 10-year Treasury yield being sensitive to Fed chatter. A confirmed rate cut would likely push yields lower.

My Final Thoughts

The jumbo mortgage market, like the broader economy, is in a bit of a holding pattern right now. It's a time of watching and waiting. While recent economic data suggests a high probability of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting, there's always room for surprises. If the Fed does cut rates, it could be a great opportunity to jump into the market or consider refinancing an existing mortgage. Of course, it's always best to speak with a qualified mortgage professional to discuss your specific situation and goals.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions 2025 from 4 Leading Housing Experts
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years: 2025-2029
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
  • Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 2 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
  • How Lower Mortgage Rates Can Save You Thousands?
  • How to Get a Low Mortgage Interest Rate?
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 4% Again?

Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: Interest Rate, Jumbo Mortgage Rates, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, Mortgage Rates Today

Mortgage Rates Predictions Next 90 Days: August to October 2025

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 60 Days

If you're wondering where mortgage rates are headed over the next 90 days, between August and October 2025, the short answer is: expect some stability with a slight downward trend. As of now, August 11, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.63%. Most experts predict they'll hover in the mid-to-high 6% range for the next few months, possibly dipping a bit lower by October if the economy cools off. It's not a dramatic drop, but every little bit helps!

Now, let's break down what's behind these predictions and what it all means for you, whether you're buying a home, refinancing, or just keeping an eye on the market.

Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 90 Days: August to October 2025

The Current Mortgage Rate Picture

Before we look ahead, let's take a snapshot of where we stand right now. As I mentioned, Freddie Mac reported an average 30-year fixed rate of 6.63% on August 7th. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) clocked in a slightly higher rate of 6.77% a few days earlier. Bankrate is showing similar numbers, with the 30-year fixed at 6.75%, the 15-year fixed at 5.99%, and 5/1 ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) at 6.01%.

Here's a quick summary

  • 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.63%
  • 30-year fixed (MBA): 6.77%
  • 30-year fixed (Bankrate): 6.75%
  • 15-year fixed (Bankrate): 5.99%
  • 5/1 ARM (Bankrate): 6.01%

What does this mean? We're seeing some stabilization after the higher rates of late 2024. But remember, these are averages. The actual rate you get will depend on your individual credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose.

What's Driving Mortgage Rates? The Key Players

Mortgage rates don't just pop out of thin air. They're heavily influenced by several factors, mainly:

  1. The Federal Reserve (The Fed) and its Policies: What the Fed does has a HUGE impact. They control the federal funds rate, which indirectly influences mortgage rates. The Fed held rates steady at their July meeting, and recent jobs data suggests a potential rate cut later in 2025. This is a big deal because even hints of a potential cut can bring mortgage rates down.
  2. Inflation and Economic Health: Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. If inflation is high, the Fed is more likely to keep rates high to cool things down. But if inflation is under control and the economy is showing signs of slowing, we might see rates decrease. Remember that core inflation sits at 2.8% year-over-year, inching closer to the Fed's 2% target, so this will be closely monitored.
  3. The Bond Market (The 10-Year Treasury Yield): Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. If investors are buying bonds, that pushes yields down, which can then lower mortgage rates. I always think of the bond market as a barometer of economic confidence.
  4. Housing Market Conditions (Supply and Demand): If there are more houses than buyers, sellers might budge on price, and lenders might compete for borrowers by offering lower rates. Conversely, a hot market with limited inventory can keep rates elevated.
  5. Global Events & Geopolitics: While domestic data usually has the biggest impact, unexpected global events can throw a wrench into things.

Expert Predictions: Where are Rates Headed in August-October 2025?

Okay, let's get to the predictions. Here's what the experts are saying:

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Anticipates an average of 6.8% for Q3 2025 (July-September) and 6.7% for Q4 2025 (October-December). This suggests a gradual easing, potentially dipping below 6.7% by October if economic weakness persists.

Fannie Mae: Recent revisions project rates reaching 6.4% by the end of 2025, implying a downward trajectory through Q3 and Q4. This is a slight improvement from earlier estimates of 6.5%.

Here are projections from other sources:

  • Money: Expects rates to stick in the mid-6% range throughout 2025, with potential for some decline.
  • MarketWatch: Forecasts August rates averaging between 6.7% and 6.9%.
  • Yahoo Finance: Sees minimal change, ending 2025 at around 6.7%.
  • Broader Industry Sentiment: Suggests mid-6% as the “new normal” for late 2025.

Let's put this into a table for easier reading:

Source Q3 2025 (Jul-Sept) Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec) End of 2025
MBA 6.8% 6.7% 6.7%
Fannie Mae N/A Toward 6.4% 6.4%
Other Analysts (Avg) 6.7-6.9% 6.5-6.8% Mid-6%

Important Note: These are just predictions! Economic conditions can change rapidly.

My Take: A Gradual Cooling

Based on the data and my own experience following the market, I think we're likely looking at a gradual cooling of mortgage rates, not a steep drop. The Fed will be cautious about cutting rates too quickly, especially if inflation shows any signs of rebounding, though I do think cooling inflation and the July Job report have put some pressure on them. Housing Market Supply and Demand will play a roll, and if rates do drop, that might alleviate some of it. I think it's reasonable to expect rates to remain in that 6.4 – 6.8% range through October.

A Look Back: Why Are Rates Where They Are?

To understand where we are going, you sometimes have to understand where we've been. Last year, and the year prior, mortgage rates hit levels we hadn't seen in decades, climbing above 7%. This was due to the Fed aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation. The current moderation in rates reflects the fact that inflation is starting to ease.

What Does This Mean for You?

Okay, so how does all this affect you?

  • For Homebuyers: A slight dip in rates can make a big difference in your monthly payment. It opens up more properties in your price range and gives you a bit more bargaining power. It also may mean more inventory. If you have been holding off, now may be your time to jump in.
  • For Refinancers: If you locked in a rate above 7% last year, even a small drop to 6.5% can be worth refinancing. It could save you serious money over the life of the loan. Most Experts will recommend refinancing if rates fall 0.5 – 1% below your current rate.
  • For Sellers: Stable rates are good. Lower rates might entice more buyers to enter the market, especially in markets where you know prices are steady amid rate moderation.


Related Topics:

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 6 Months: August to December 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 2 Years: 2026 and 2027

Tips for Navigating the Mortgage Market in the Next 90 Days

Alright, here's some actionable advice for the next few months:

  1. Stay Informed: Keep an eye on those weekly reports from Freddie Mac and the MBA. Knowledge is power!
  2. Get Your Financial House in Order: Boost your credit score, pay down debt, and save for a larger down payment. This will help you qualify for the best rates.
  3. Shop Around: Don't just go with the first lender you find. Get quotes from multiple lenders to see who can offer you the best deal.
  4. Consider a Rate Lock: If you're buying soon, a rate lock can protect you from potential rate increases.
  5. Explore ALL Your Options: An ARM or 15-year loan might be a good choice if you need a lower initial rate.
  6. Talk to a Professional: A mortgage broker or financial advisor can give you personalized advice based on your situation. The fee is absolutely worth it!

The Bottom Line

While the data points to a moderation in the market in the coming months, the exact direction of mortgage rates between August and October 2025 is still murky. Expect rates to hover around 6.5-6.8%. By following these expert tips, you'll be well-equipped to navigate the mortgage market and make the best decisions for your future.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions 2025 from 4 Leading Housing Experts
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years: 2025-2029
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
  • Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 2 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
  • How Lower Mortgage Rates Can Save You Thousands?
  • How to Get a Low Mortgage Interest Rate?
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 4% Again?

Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: Interest Rate, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, mortgage rates, Mortgage Rates Today

Most Expensive Places to Live in the US: Fisher Island Tops List in 2025

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Most Expensive Places to Live in the US: Fisher Island Tops List in 2025

If you’ve ever wondered where the truly jaw-dropping real estate deals happen in America, you’ve come to the right place. The answer, as you might expect, involves a lot of coastal addresses and a healthy dose of exclusivity. Fisher Island, Florida (ZIP code 33109), takes the crown as the most expensive place to live in the U.S., with a staggering median listing price of $11.9 million. According to Realtor.com, this is nearly 27 times more than the national median, giving you an idea of the price difference we’re talking about. It’s a world away from the everyday, a place where “luxury” is the baseline.

The Most Expensive Places to Live in the US: Where the Prices Touch the Sky

For me, looking at these numbers is always fascinating. It's not just about the price tags; it's about what those prices represent: unique locations, unparalleled privacy, and amenities that most of us can only dream of. These aren’t just houses; they're statements. They're often island enclaves, gated communities favored by the ultra-wealthy, and historically significant neighborhoods that continue to hold their value, and then some.

Coastal Dreams and California Riches

A significant trend emerges when you look at the list of the most expensive places: a strong presence of coastal areas, particularly in California. While Fisher Island might snag the top spot, seven out of the top ten most expensive ZIP codes are sprinkled along the California coast, from the glamorous beaches of Malibu to the refined enclaves near Santa Barbara.

Let's break down what makes these places so incredibly costly, shall we?

  • Location, Location, Location: This classic real estate mantra is amplified tenfold here. Oceanfront views, private beaches, and stunning natural beauty are immense selling points.
  • Exclusivity and Privacy: Many of these areas are islands, gated communities, or have limited access. The ability to escape the public eye is a massive draw.
  • Amenities and Lifestyle: We're talking about properties with private helipads, sprawling estates, award-winning golf courses, and access to high-end services that cater to a very specific lifestyle.
  • Scarcity: Unlike most places, these prime spots have a limited amount of land, meaning fewer homes can be built. When demand is high and supply is low, prices naturally soar.

The Reigning Champ: Fisher Island, Florida

As I mentioned, Fisher Island (ZIP code 33109) in Miami Beach is the undisputed king of expensive living. What sets it apart? It's an island accessible only by private ferry, yacht, or helicopter. No public roads mean no drive-by traffic – just pure, unadulterated privacy.

“Fisher Island's housing market is riding the wave of Miami’s ultra-luxury boom because it combines seclusion with inherent scarcity,” Ana Bozovic, a Miami-based real estate agent, told Realtor.com. I completely agree. It’s the best of both worlds: minutes from the vibrant energy of Miami but worlds away in terms of peace and quiet.

Homes here, averaging around 3,800 square feet, command prices that are astronomical, largely due to that unique combination of privacy and oceanfront allure. What’s even more interesting is that interest in Fisher Island properties is actually growing, even as luxury markets elsewhere might be cooling. Realtor.com saw a 4.5% increase in page views per property there year over year.

The top-tier listings there – meaning the most expensive 10% – can reach a mind-boggling $35 million. And it’s not just existing homes; there’s new construction like the Links Estates, featuring 12 single-family homes starting at an eye-watering $30 million. This all points to Miami's growing status as a global luxury hub, and Fisher Island is right at its exclusive center.

California's Luxury Landscape: A Closer Look

Now, let’s talk about California. This Golden State truly dominates the list, with its diverse geography and established reputation for attracting the wealthy and famous.

  • Newport Coast, Newport Beach, CA (ZIP code 92657): Coming in at number two, this area boasts a median listing price of $9.1 million. The truly opulent tier here, the top 5% of homes, can exceed $50 million. Imagine a place where even the “entry-level” luxury is this high.
  • Bel Air, Los Angeles, CA (ZIP code 90077): Synonymous with Hollywood glamour, Bel Air’s median listing price is $8.2 million. Homes here are generally larger, averaging close to 5,800 square feet. Interestingly, online interest in this market has dipped significantly, down by 46% compared to the previous year. It makes you wonder if folks are looking for something different, or perhaps the sheer cost is starting to push people away.
  • Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA (ZIP code 93108): This charming, exclusive community is home to A-listers like Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, and the estate of Oprah Winfrey. With median listings around $7 million, it’s clear that privacy and prestige come at a premium. Montecito is known for its beautiful homes and a relaxed, yet incredibly sophisticated, atmosphere.
  • Hope Ranch, Santa Barbara, CA (ZIP code 93108): Nestled near Montecito, Hope Ranch also features multimillion-dollar listings, with some estates asking for $6.8 million or more. It’s an area known for its equestrian facilities and sprawling properties, offering a more rural feel but with the same high-end appeal.
  • Beverly Hills, CA (ZIP code 90210): Yes, the one from the famous TV show! Beverly Hills continues to be a titan in luxury real estate, with a median listing price of around $6.9 million. What’s interesting here, as real estate agent Richard Schulman points out, is that demand has actually seen a boost after recent wildfires. People are seeking those historically desirable locations, even in the face of natural disasters. He also notes a key difference: Beverly Hills attracts buyers looking for a somewhat more walkable lifestyle, whereas Bel Air tends to appeal to those seeking expansive, secluded estates without sidewalks.
  • Malibu, CA (ZIP code 90265): Known for its stunning beachfront properties, Malibu’s median listing price is around $6 million. However, like Bel Air, Malibu has also been impacted by wildfires, leading to a 46% drop in online views for homes. Despite the challenges, there’s a strong belief in its recovery. Foreign investors are reportedly snapping up burned beachfront lots, betting heavily on a rebuild that will once again make Malibu a prime spot for wealthy homeowners looking for that coveted beach house.

The East Coast's Elite

While California dominates, the East Coast also holds its own in the ultra-luxury market.

  • Bridgehampton, NY (ZIP code 11932): Located in the Hamptons, a playground for the wealthy, Bridgehampton commands a median listing price of $8.5 million. This area is famous for its sprawling estates, manicured lawns, and proximity to both the Atlantic Ocean and charming village life.
  • Water Mill, NY (ZIP code 11976): Also in the Hamptons, Water Mill is a bit more understated but no less expensive, with a median listing price of $6.8 million. It offers a blend of historic homes and modern mansions, all set against a backdrop of picturesque farmland and water views.

Beyond the Top 10: Places Worth Mentioning

  • Rancho Santa Fe, CA (ZIP code 92067): This exclusive community in San Diego County rounds out the top 10 with a median listing price of $6.1 million. What’s notably different here? The homes are huge. The median home size in Rancho Santa Fe is a massive 6,711 square feet, nearly four times the national average. These are estates designed for grand living.
 
 
LUXURY REAL ESTATE

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE
ZIP CODES IN AMERICA

 

Median Listing Prices • 2024 Data

 
2
Newport Coast
Newport Beach, CA
ZIP: 92657
$9.1M
 
👑 #1
1
Fisher Island
Miami Beach, FL
ZIP: 33109
$11.9M
 
3
Bridgehampton
NY
ZIP: 11932
$8.5M
 
4
Bel Air – Los Angeles, CA
ZIP: 90077
$8.2M
 
5
Montecito – Santa Barbara, CA
ZIP: 93108
$7.0M
 
6
Hope Ranch – Santa Barbara, CA
ZIP: 93110
$6.9M
 
7
Beverly Hills, CA
ZIP: 90210
$6.9M
 
8
Water Mill, NY
ZIP: 11976
$6.8M
 
9
Rancho Santa Fe, CA
ZIP: 92067
$6.1M
 
10
Malibu, CA
ZIP: 90265
$6.0M
70%
California Dominance
$7.7M
Average Price
3
States Represented
Data Source: Realtor.com
Infographic by Norada Real Estate Investments

What Drives These Prices?

It’s not just about brick and mortar. These prices are a reflection of a complex mix of factors:

  • Investment Potential: For the ultra-wealthy, prime real estate in desirable locations is seen as a stable, valuable asset, especially in times of economic uncertainty.
  • Tax Havens and Business Hubs: Cities that offer favorable tax environments or are major centers for global business, like Miami, attract international buyers and contribute to higher property values.
  • Brand Name Appeal: Certain ZIP codes, like 90210 or even Montecito, carry a certain prestige and a “brand name” that the affluent are willing to pay a premium for. It's about being part of an exclusive club.
  • Limited Supply, Unlimited Demand: As we’ve seen, many of these locations have finite land or are highly sought after by a small, but very wealthy, group of buyers. This imbalance naturally drives prices up.

While the numbers are astronomical, it’s important to remember that these are the outliers. The vast majority of Americans live in homes that are significantly more affordable. However, understanding these ultra-luxury markets gives us a glimpse into how wealth, desirability, and scarcity converge to create some of the most expensive real estate on the planet. It’s a fascinating world, and one that continues to evolve with global economic trends and the ever-present desire for the ultimate in luxury living.

Invest Beyond High-Cost Zip Codes

With ultra-premium areas like Fisher Island topping 2025’s “most expensive” lists, smart investors are shifting to affordable, high-yield rental markets for better cash flow and diversification.

Norada connects you to turnkey properties in resilient, landlord-friendly cities—so you can build wealth without paying trophy-market prices.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

Recommended Read:

  • Hottest Housing Markets: Top ZIP Codes for 2025 Revealed
  • Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets Where Home Prices Are Soaring
  • Housing Predictions 2025 by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
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  • Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2024-2026
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  • Housing Market Predictions for 2025 and 2026 by NAR Chief
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  • 2008 Forecaster Warns: Housing Market 2024 Needs This to Survive
  • Real Estate Forecast Next 10 Years: Will Prices Skyrocket?

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market, Most Expensive Places to Live, Most Expensive Zip Codes

How Much Will Mortgage Rates Drop Further in August 2025?

August 20, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Mortgage Rates Predictions August 2025: Will Rates Go Down?

Trying to time the market, especially when it comes to something as big as a mortgage, can feel like trying to predict the weather. Will it be sunny skies and low rates, or stormy weather and high costs? If you're wondering, “Will mortgage rates drop further in August 2025?” the answer is probably not drastically. While a slight dip is possible, most experts believe rates will hover between 6.5% and 6.6%. Let's explore why that is and what factors could shift things one way or the other.

How Much Will Mortgage Rates Drop Further in August 2025?

The Current Situation: Where Mortgage Rates Stand Today

As of mid-August 2025, mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since October and purchase application activity is improving as borrowers take advantage of the decline in rates. Getting a mortgage today means dealing with interest rates that are higher than what we saw a few years ago. According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® by Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is around 6.58%.

To really get a feel for this, look at the numbers:

  • 30-Year FRM: 6.58% (Slightly up from last year)
  • 15-Year FRM: 5.71% (A bit better, but you pay more each month)
  • Recent Range: Between 6.08% and 7.04% over the past year

While some might call it stable, “stable” at mid-6% can be a challenge for a lot of people who are trying to buy a home. This makes it tricky. I remember helping my cousin buy his first house in 2021 when the rates were crazy low. He got a steal. Now, it’s a whole different ball game, and that’s why understanding future predictions is important.

Looking Back: A Quick History of Mortgage Rate Swings

Why are rates where they are today? To understand that, we need to take a little trip down memory lane.

  • 2020-2021: The Pandemic Plunge. When COVID-19 hit, the Federal Reserve stepped in and cut interest rates to near-zero. Mortgage rates followed suit, dropping to historical lows. It’s like they were practically giving money away! I remember thinking I should refinance just because, even though I had only bought my house a year before.
  • 2022-2023: The Inflation Surge. Inflation started to climb when the world opened up, and the Fed started raising rates to calm things down. Mortgage rates shot up, too.
  • 2024: Trying to Find Balance. Rates bouncing around, usually between 6% and 7% reflecting the back and forth between inflation and economic expansion.
  • 2025: High But Steady. We're kind of stuck in the high-6% range without any dramatic drops.

This rollercoaster shows us it is not child's play, and there is no definite answer. This is why predictions should be seen as educated guesses, not guarantees.

Expert Expectations: What the Forecasters Are Saying About August 2025

Alright, let’s dive into what the people who study this stuff for a living are saying. I've scoured reports from the big names – NAR, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, MBA, and Freddie Mac – to give you the most comprehensive outlook.

Here’s a quick rundown:

  • National Association of Realtors (NAR): Their chief economist, Lawrence Yun, thinks rates will average around 6.4% in the second half of 2025. He thinks inflation will calm down, and because of that, house sales should rise.
  • Realtor.com: They think we'll be at 6.4% by the end of 2025. August 2025 numbers will probably be around 6.5%-6.7%, so not a huge change.
  • Fannie Mae: They're predicting rates will end 2025 at 6.4% and then drop a bit more in 2026. For Q3 2026, it looks like they're seeing rates around 6%.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): This group is playing it a bit safe. They think rates will stay close to 6.8% and then drop down to 6.7% by the end of the year.
  • Freddie Mac: They think rates are going to be up for a while, but slightly below what they were the prior year.
  • Morgan Stanley: Their economists believe that if the U.S. Treasury yields were to decrease, then this would also affect the interest rates.

To help you picture it all, take a look at this summary:

Source Q3 2025 (Aug) Forecast Year-End 2025 Forecast 2026 Forecast
NAR ~6.4% 6.4% 6.1%
Realtor.com ~6.5%-6.7% 6.4% –
Fannie Mae 6.5% 6.4% 6.0%
MBA 6.8% 6.7% 6.3%
Freddie Mac ~6.5%-6.7% ~6.5% –
Morgan Stanley ~6.5%-6.8% – Lower

The Bottom Line: Most experts seem to agree that mortgage rates in August 2025 will likely be in the 6.5% to 6.6% range. Don't expect any huge drops anytime soon. It looks like the bigger changes will happen later, maybe in 2026 or 2027.

What's Driving Rates? The Economic Factors at Play

Okay, so we know what the experts think, but why do they think that? Let's look at the main things that push mortgage rates up or down.

  1. The Federal Reserve (The Fed): The Fed controls the federal funds rate, which affects everything else, including mortgage rates. They've put the brakes on rate hikes due to inflation. It looks like if things cool down, they will lower rates.
  2. Inflation, Inflation, Inflation: The Fed really wants to get inflation down to 2%. If inflation drops faster than people expect, rates could slide down a bit. But, if something happens to push inflation up again (and there always could be), rates might stay higher.
  3. Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates like to follow the 10-year Treasury note yield.
  4. Economic Growth: A strong economy can mean higher rates.
  5. The Housing Market Itself: Are there a lot of houses for sale, or are people holding on to theirs? Are there a lot of buyers, or are people waiting? Low inventory has been pushing prices up, which can indirectly affect rates.

August 2025: Rate Scenarios and What They Mean

So, what could cause rates actually to go down in August 2025? Let's look at a few possibilities:

  • The Optimistic View (Rates Drop to Around 6.4%-6.5%) This happens if inflation eases faster than expected, encouraging the Fed to cut rates. Treasury yields would also need to come down as well.
    • What it Means: It would be a little easier to buy a home. For example, on a \$1 million house, if rates dropped from 6.74% to 6.4%, your monthly payment would decrease by a couple of hundred dollars.
    • How Likely? Possible, but inflation is still pretty sticky.
  • The Status Quo (Rates Stay Around 6.5%-6.7%) This is what most experts expect. Inflation hangs around and the Fed does nothing.
    • What it Means: Things would keep moving how they're probably moving now. Not cheap, but not getting worse either.
    • How Likely? Very likely, considering how things are playing out.
  • The Worrisome View (Rates Go Above 7%) This might happen if something causes inflation to jump up again. If that happened, the Fed might even have to raise rates again.
    • What it Means: Owning a home would get even harder, and sales would likely drop.
    • How Likely? Not likely, but always on the cards.


Related Topics:

Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028

Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: July-Sept 2025

What This Means for You: Whether You're Buying or Already Own

  • For Homebuyers: It might not be worth waiting for a massive rate drop. While trying to predict the market can be enticing, sometimes its best to jump in.
  • For Homeowners: Should you refinance? Look at your current situation. If rates slide down a bit, and you can reduce your rate by 0.5% to 1%, it could be worth it.

Here's how monthly mortgage payments change with different interest rates:

The Big Picture: What the Housing Market Will Look Like in August 2025

Here's what the overall market might look like then:

  • More Sales: Overall, it seems like sales will climb, likely a slow pace, but still moving in the right direction.
  • Prices Calming Down: Don't expect another big spike in prices. It seems prices are beginning to normalize.
  • More Choices: It may become easier to find inventory as developers get rid of “rate lock.”
  • Sticking Points: Buying a home may still be unaffordable to most.

The Final Word: Patience and Planning Are Key

So, will mortgage rates drop in August 2025? The short answer is probably not by much. Expect rates to stay in the mid-6% range. Major changes may take even longer. Be patient, plan carefully, and don't try to predict impossible outcomes. Keep an eye on the news. Consult with a mortgage professional.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

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Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions 2025 from 4 Leading Housing Experts
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years: 2025-2029
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
  • Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 2 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
  • How Lower Mortgage Rates Can Save You Thousands?
  • How to Get a Low Mortgage Interest Rate?
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 4% Again?

Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: Interest Rate, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, mortgage rates, Mortgage Rates Predictions

Mortgage Rates Today: 5-Year ARM Goes Down by 6 Basis Points – August 19, 2025

August 19, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Drops from 7.56% to 7.54% - June 28, 2025

If you are in the market for a new home or looking to refinance, understanding the current mortgage rate is very important. As of today, August 19, 2025, the national average 5-year ARM (Adjustable-Rate Mortgage) has decreased by 6 basis points, settling at 7.27%, according to data from Zillow. While this might seem like a small change, it signals shifts in the market that I will discuss in this article. Let's break down what it means for you and how the Federal Reserve's decisions are playing a significant role.

Mortgage Rates Today: 5-Year ARM Goes Down by 6 Basis Points – August 19, 2025

A Snapshot of Today's Mortgage Rates

First, here’s a quick overview of how different mortgage types are performing right now:

  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.69% (down 1 basis point from yesterday)
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.79% (down 2 basis point from yesterday)
  • 5-Year ARM: 7.27% (down 6 basis points from yesterday)

Here’s a more detailed look at the conforming loan rates:

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.69 % up0.03 % 7.16 % up0.04 %
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.43 % down0.24 % 6.90 % down0.08 %
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.79 % up0.02 % 6.09 % up0.02 %
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.48 % 0.00 % 5.84 % 0.00 %
7-year ARM 7.45 % down0.08 % 8.12 % up0.12 %
5-year ARM 7.27 % up0.03 % 7.82 % up0.01 %
3-year ARM — 0.00 % — 0.00 %

Source: Zillow – August 19, 2025

Why Focus on ARMs?

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) can be appealing, especially when rates for fixed mortgages are high. The initial rate on an ARM is often lower than a fixed-rate mortgage. In today's market, where the 30-year fixed rate sits at 6.69%, a 5-year ARM at 7.27% may not seem like a deal initially, but understanding the broader economic context is crucial.

The reason I believe ARM rates are really important right now: They directly reflect market expectations about near-term interest rate movements, influenced so much by meetings of the Fed. The small decrease we're seeing today could hint at bigger changes on the horizon.

The Federal Reserve's Influence: A Deep Dive

To really understand where mortgage rates are headed, we need to talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed). Their monetary policy decisions are what mainly drive the trends in these rates.

From 2021 to 2023, the Fed was in full response mode, with actions varying from keeping mortgage rates at historic lows during the pandemic by purchasing bonds, to then switching gears and combatting inflation and aggressively raising the federal funds rate by 5.25 percentage points.

In late 2024, the Fed started to pivot, cutting rates three times between September and December. This decrease was one percentage point, putting the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. Since those end of 2024 cuts, we've had a pause through July 2025, while they took additional measures to consider the economic impact of these decisions.

Economic Factors at Play in 2025

As of today, August 19, 2025, we're seeing a mix of economic factors that are influencing the Fed's decisions:

  • Inflation is Stubborn: Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) remains around 2.7%, and new tariffs could add to the pressure.
  • Growth is Slowing: GDP growth has slowed down, and unemployment has increased to 4.2%. We're also seeing fewer new jobs being created.

Because of these factors, there's a ton of expectation that the Fed will cut rates at their upcoming September 16-17 meeting. You can see the market signals point to a high probability (85-95%) of this happening, based on tools like the CME FedWatch Tool.

Why a September Rate Cut Is Likely

There are three things I think are really pointing toward the Fed making a rate cut next month:

  • Cooling Inflation: The CPI (Consumer Price Index) has come down to 2.7%, which is getting closer to the Fed's target.
  • Labor Market Weakening: With unemployment at 4.2% and fewer new jobs, the Fed has reason to step in and support the economy.
  • Predicted Slowdown: Economic forecasts are suggesting a slowdown, which just makes a preemptive stimulus look more necessary.

Keep an eye out for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22. He's likely to drop more hints about what the Fed will do in September.

Recommended Read:

5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Update for August 16, 2025

Fixed vs. Adjustable Rate Mortgage in 2025: Which is Best for You

How a Rate Cut Will Impact Mortgage Rates

The mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages has hovered close to 6.8% through mid-2025. A cut in September is expected to push rates lower. I believe this will reduce borrowing costs across the board, encouraging business investment and leading to significant movements in both stock and bond markets.

The Fed's own projections from June suggested two rate cuts in 2025. And with a September cut, it could potentially bring mortgage rates down near 6% by the end of the year.

What to Watch Out For

Even though the probability is high, it's important to remember that the Fed's decision isn't guaranteed. If inflation stays higher than expected or the economy shows surprising strength, things could change.

Key Dates and Scenarios

Here are some important dates to keep in mind:

  • September 16-17 Meeting: This is when the Fed will likely make a rate cut. They'll also release updated economic forecasts.
  • December Meeting: This could be when the Fed makes its second rate cut of 2025.

Looking further ahead, the Fed anticipates slowly lowering rates, with the goal of getting them to around 2.25%-2.5% by 2027.

What This Means for You

Here’s how these trends might affect different people:

  • Current Buyers: Although rates are still high, keep an eye on the September meeting. It could bring some relief.
  • Refinancers: If your rate is above 7%, pay close attention to what happens in September. You might be able to refinance at a lower rate.
  • Investors: The bond markets are sensitive to what the Fed says and does. If there's a confirmed rate cut, bond yields will likely go down.

Final Thoughts: The small decrease in the 5-year ARM rate today is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. By keeping an eye on the Fed's actions and understanding the economic factors at play, you can make smarter decisions about your mortgage and financial future.

Capitalize on ARM Rates Before They Rise Even Higher

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with an investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
  • Expect High Mortgage Rates Until 2026: Fannie Mae's 2-Year Forecast
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions 2025 from 4 Leading Housing Experts
  • Mortgage Rates Forecast for the Next 3 Years: 2025 to 2027
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
  • Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 2 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
  • How Lower Mortgage Rates Can Save You Thousands?
  • How to Get a Low Mortgage Interest Rate?
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 4% Again?

Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: Adjustable Rate Mortgage, Interest Rate, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, mortgage rates

Hottest Housing Markets: Top ZIP Codes for 2025 Revealed

August 19, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Hottest Housing Markets: Top ZIP Codes for 2025 Revealed

If you're trying to figure out where the hottest housing markets are right now, the answer is often found in the ZIP codes. The following top 10 ZIP codes in the U.S. showcase where buyer demand is highest and homes are selling the fastest. For 2025, the spotlight shines brightly on Beverly, Massachusetts (01915), along with other areas primarily in the Northeast and Midwest, highlighting a trend of buyers seeking value, location, and lifestyle.

Hottest Housing Markets: Top ZIP Codes for 2025 Revealed

Each year, I eagerly anticipate the Realtor.com's Hottest ZIP Codes report to get a pulse on the real estate market. It provides some serious insight into where people want to live and what they're prioritizing when buying a home. This year's report is especially interesting because it underscores how buyers are adapting to higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. I've always believed that people are smart about where they put their money when it comes to real estate, and these ZIP codes tell a story of buyers strategically seeking value, even in competitive markets.

How Are The “Hottest ZIP Codes” Determined?

Realtor.com uses a unique methodology to identify these sought-after areas. I like how it combines two key factors so it is a well-rounded process:

  • Market Demand: Measured by the number of unique viewers per property on Realtor.com. The more people looking at a property, the hotter the market.
  • Pace of the Market: Measured by how long a listing stays active on Realtor.com. The faster homes sell, the more competitive the ZIP code becomes.

Basically, the hottest ZIP codes have high buyer interest (lots of views) and quick sales (homes don't stay on the market long). The below table lists the top 10 hottest ZIP codes of 2025.

Rank ZIP Code City
1 01915 Beverly, MA
2 08053 Marlton, NJ
3 01453 Leominster, MA
4 63021 Ballwin, MO
5 07470 Wayne, NJ
6 44149 Strongsville, OH
7 06611 Trumbull, CT
8 02864 Cumberland, RI
9 06074 South Windsor, CT
10 43209 Bexley, OH

Key Trends & Takeaways from the List

Here's what I found most interesting about this year's hottest ZIP codes report:

  • Northeast and Midwest Domination: For the third year in a row, the South and West are absent from the list. The Northeast and Midwest continue to see high demand and limited housing supply.
  • Suburban Appeal: The hottest ZIP codes are largely in desirable suburban areas, offering a slower pace of life without sacrificing access to major economic hubs.
  • Homes are Flying Off the (Virtual) Shelf: Listings in the top ten ZIPs are seeing 3.3 to 5.2 times as many views as the average U.S. property, and homes are selling 30–42 days faster.
  • Tight Inventory: Inventory is way down in these hot markets, almost 59% below pre-pandemic levels. This means more competition and faster sales for the properties that are listed.

The Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets by ZIP Code in 2025

Let's dive a little deeper into each of these top 10 ZIP codes and see what makes them so desirable:

  1. Beverly, MA (01915)
    • Metro Area: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
    • The most popular ZIP code in the U.S. for 2025.
    • Median Listing Price: $746,000
    • Days on Market: 16
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 4.6x
    • Why it's hot: Good schools, coastal charm, and commuter rail access to Boston make Beverly a desirable option for those seeking a balance between suburban living and city access.
  2. Marlton, NJ (08053)
    • Metro Area: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
    • Median Listing Price: $495,000
    • Days on Market: 17
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 3.9x
    • Why it's hot: Marlton offers a more affordable option compared to other areas in the Philadelphia metro, with good schools and a convenient location.
  3. Leominster, MA (01453)
    • Metro Area: Worcester, MA
    • Median Listing Price: $441,000
    • Days on Market: 18
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 4.0x
    • Why it's hot: Leominster attracts buyers seeking a lower cost of living compared to Boston, while still having access to the city's amenities. Leominster is also well connected to the more popular Zip code of Boston.
  4. Ballwin, MO (63021)
    • Metro Area: St. Louis, MO-IL
    • Median Listing Price: $350,000
    • Days on Market: 22
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 3.8x
    • Why it's hot: Good schools and a family-friendly atmosphere make Ballwin a popular choice in the St. Louis metro.
  5. Wayne, NJ (07470)
    • Metro Area: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
    • Median Listing Price: $664,000
    • Days on Market: 22
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 3.3x
    • Why it's hot: Wayne offers a suburban lifestyle with a relatively shorter commute to New York City, making it a desirable option for those working in the city. This makes living easier and lifestyle, flexible.
  6. Strongsville, OH (44149)
    • Metro Area: Cleveland, OH
    • Median Listing Price: $423,000
    • Days on Market: 25
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 5.2x
    • Why it's hot: Strongsville provides a family-friendly” environment with strong schools and access to the amenities of Cleveland.
  7. Trumbull, CT (06611)
    • Metro Area: Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT
    • Median Listing Price: $666,000
    • Days on Market: 25
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 5.1x
    • Why it's hot: Trumbull balances suburban living with good schools and a reasonable commute to New York City.
  8. Cumberland, RI (02864)
    • Metro Area: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
    • Median Listing Price: $534,000
    • Days on Market: 26
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 3.6x
    • Why it's hot: Cumberland offers more affordable housing compared to Boston, with a good location near the city of Providence, making it especially suitable for renters.
  9. South Windsor, CT (06074)
    • Metro Area: Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
    • Median Listing Price: $406,000
    • Days on Market: 27
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 5.0x
    • Why it's hot: Good schools and a family-oriented community make South Windsor an attractive choice for those seeking a suburban lifestyle near Hartford.
  10. Bexley, OH (43209)
    • Metro Area: Columbus, OH
    • Median Listing Price: $439,000
    • Days on Market: 25
    • Viewers per Property vs. US Average: 3.4x
    • Why it's hot: Bexley is known for its historic charm, walkable streets, and good schools, attracting buyers looking for something special in Columbus. It also offers a small-town feel with easy access to metropolitan amenities.

The Value Proposition: What Buyers Want

It's interesting to me that even with higher mortgage rates, people are still willing to jump into the housing market in these areas. Why is that? Well, this year's hottest ZIP codes highlight what buyers are prioritizing:

  • Value for Money: Many buyers are looking for areas where they can get more house for their money compared to the surrounding metro area.
  • Suburban Lifestyle with Urban Access: People want the space and safety of the suburbs, but they still want to be able to easily get to the city for work or entertainment.
  • Good Schools: This is always a top priority for families with children.
  • Community: People want to live in neighborhoods where they feel connected to their neighbors and have a sense of belonging.

Big-City Buyers Seeking Suburban Appeal

It's also worth noting that a lot of the interest in these hottest ZIP codes is coming from people who already live in big cities. Buyers from metros like New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C., are looking to escape the high costs and fast pace of urban life, without completely giving up access to those cities. As someone who has lived in both urban and suburban areas, I completely understand this desire!

  • New York City was the top out-of-metro source in 3 of the mentioned ZIP codes.
  • Boston was the top out-of-metro source in 4 of the mentioned ZIP codes
  • Washington, D.C. was the top out-of-metro source in 2 of the mentioned ZIP codes.

These people on average earn 50% more than the national median, making them highly competitive.

Who are these Buyers?

The buyers in the areas with hottest housing markets also share a few common characteristics:

  • Higher-Income Households: The average household income in these ZIPs is around $114,000, much higher than the national average.
  • Good Credit Scores: The average credit score in these areas is 759, compared to 748 nationwide.
  • Larger Down Payments: Buyers in these ZIPs are putting down more money on their homes, likely to lower their monthly payments in this high-interest-rate environment.
  • Established Homeowners: The average age of homeowners in these areas is 56, older than the national average, suggesting more experience and financial stability.

What Does This Mean For You?

Whether you're a buyer or a seller, understanding these trends can help you make informed decisions.

  • For Buyers: If you're looking to buy in one of these hottest ZIP codes, be prepared for competition. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, work with a knowledgeable real estate agent, and be ready to move quickly.
  • For Sellers: If you're selling in one of these areas, you're in a good position. Work with an experienced agent who can help you price your home competitively and market it effectively to attract the most offers.

Final Thoughts

The hottest housing markets are always changing, but some things remain constant. People want a good quality of life, a convenient location, and a sense of community. If you can find a ZIP code that offers those things, you're likely to find a place where homes are selling quickly and prices are holding steady.

While this report gives us a snapshot of the hottest markets right now, it's always important to do your own research and consider your individual needs and priorities when making real estate decisions. I encourage you to explore these ZIP codes and others, talk to local residents and agents, and see if any of these areas might be a good fit for you.

 Invest in the Hottest Housing Markets of the U.S.

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Recommended Read:

  • Top 10 Hottest Housing Markets Where Home Prices Are Soaring
  • Housing Predictions 2025 by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
  • New Tariffs Could Trigger Housing Market Slowdown in 2025
  • Housing Market Forecast 2025: Affordability Crisis Will Continue
  • Lower Mortgage Rates Will Reignite the Housing Demand in 2025
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  • Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2024-2026
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Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Hottest Housing Markets, Housing Market, Housing Market Trends

Today’s Mortgage Rates – August 19, 2025: 30-Year FRM Rises by 5 Basis Points, Refi Rates Jump

August 19, 2025 by Marco Santarelli

Today's Mortgage Rates - August 19, 2025: 30-Year FRM and Refinance Rates Rise

On August 19, 2025, mortgage rates today show a slight increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.72%, up by 2 basis points from 6.70% the previous day and 5 basis points from last week’s 6.67%, according to Zillow’s latest data. Meanwhile, refinance rates are also up, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate rising to 6.97%, a 5 basis points increase from yesterday and 6 basis points higher than last week.

However, not all rates moved upwards: the national average 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 5.76%, and the 5-year ARM mortgage rate dropped to 7.26%. This combination of mixed movement reflects ongoing market uncertainty tied to economic data and Fed policies.

Today's Mortgage Rates – August 19, 2025: 30-Year FRM Rises by 5 Basis Points, Refi Rates Jump

Key Takeaways:

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly to 6.72% (up 2 basis points from the previous day).
  • 30-year fixed refinance rate rose to 6.97%, up 5 basis points from yesterday and 6 basis points from last week.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.76%, down 5 basis points.
  • 5-year ARM mortgage rate decreased to 7.26%, down 7 basis points.
  • Experts predict mortgage rates will remain above 6% through 2025 and only dip below 6% in Q3 2026.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to potentially cut interest rates in September 2025, which might lower mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

For detailed current rates, market drivers, and what these fluctuations mean for homebuyers and refinancers, read on.

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates on August 19, 2025

Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including inflation, employment data, Federal Reserve policies, and broader economic trends. On August 19, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.72%, marginally higher than last week. This slow rise contrasts with some decreases seen in other products like the 15-year fixed mortgage and certain adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).

The modest uptick in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reflects concerns about sticky inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty. Employment reports from early August showed weaker job growth, which generally cools inflation expectations but also signals slower economic expansion. Because mortgage rates closely follow bond yields tied to inflation and growth forecasts, these mixed signals are creating a somewhat volatile but narrow rate range around the mid-to-high 6% level.

Current Mortgage Rate Summary Table (August 19, 2025)

Mortgage Program Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed 6.72% Up 0.05% 7.22% Up 0.10%
20-Year Fixed 6.43% Down 0.24% 6.90% Down 0.08%
15-Year Fixed 5.76% No change 6.08% Up 0.01%
10-Year Fixed 5.48% No change 5.84% No change
7-Year ARM 7.45% Down 0.08% 8.12% Up 0.12%
5-Year ARM 7.26% Up 0.02% 7.86% Up 0.05%

Source: Zillow Mortgage Rates Data, August 19, 2025

Refinance Rates Today – August 19, 2025

Refinance rates reflect opportunities for current homeowners to renegotiate their mortgages. As of today, the 30-year fixed refinance rate increased to 6.97%, climbing 5 basis points from the previous day and 6 basis points higher than last week’s 6.91%. The 15-year fixed refinance rate also moved up to 5.81%, an 8 basis points increase, and the 5-year ARM refinance rate jumped notably by 16 basis points to 7.82%.

Refinance Program Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.97% Up 0.06% N/A N/A
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.81% Up 0.08% N/A N/A
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.82% Up 0.16% N/A N/A

Source: Zillow Refinance Rates Data, August 19, 2025

Economic Factors Affecting Mortgage and Refinance Rates

The higher rates seen in both mortgage and refinance markets recently are influenced by a few key elements:

  • Weak Job Growth and Inflation: Early August’s weak job growth figures tempered expectations for rapid economic expansion but inflation remains somewhat sticky, meaning it is still above comfortable levels. This combination is causing investors to reassess interest rate expectations.
  • Federal Reserve Activity: The Federal Reserve had held rates steady through several meetings in 2025 after aggressive hikes from 2022 to 2023. Recently, the Fed’s signals suggest possible interest rate cuts soon, especially after the July job report showed a slowing economy. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows about a 91% chance of a 0.25% cut by September 2025, which would likely help push mortgage rates down.
  • Long-Term Inflation Risks: Despite expectations for cuts, inflation risks remain, partly due to tariffs and supply chain constraints, which keep interest rates elevated.

The Federal Reserve’s Role and Forecast for Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve has a significant influence on mortgage rates through its decisions on the federal funds rate and monetary policy signals.

From 2021 through 2023, the Fed increased rates aggressively to combat inflation, pushing mortgage rates to 20-year highs. By late 2024, the Fed started cutting rates, but these have mostly paused in 2025 as they assess economic data.

Looking ahead:

  • Analysts at the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae forecast rates to hover in the 6.4% to 6.8% range through the rest of 2025.
  • The Fed’s next key meetings in mid-September and December 2025 will be critical for rate movement.
  • The Fed aims to reduce rates slowly, potentially lowering the cost of borrowing toward 6% by late 2025 or 2026.
  • Market factors remain fluid, so mortgage rates could fluctuate based on economic developments.

How Do Today’s Rates Affect Borrowers?

  • For homebuyers, the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.72% means higher monthly payments compared to recent years but stable within the current range. Buyers should consider their own financial situations and not expect immediate rate drops, though modest declines may occur if the Fed cuts rates next month.
  • For refinancers, the increase to 6.97% for 30-year fixed refinance loans signals caution. Those with very high existing rates (above 7%) might wait for potential Fed rate cuts, but the timing is uncertain. Shorter-term refinance options, like 15-year fixed or ARM products, may offer alternatives.


Related Topics:

Mortgage Rates Trends as of August 18, 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions Next 90 Days: August to October 2025

Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 60 Days

Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 90 Days: July-Sept 2025

Example Calculation: Monthly Mortgage Payment at Today’s Rates

If you take out a $300,000 mortgage with a 30-year fixed interest rate of 6.72%, your monthly payment for principal and interest would be about $1,937.

If the interest rate were a bit lower, say 6.0%, your monthly payment would drop to around $1,799.

That means by getting the lower rate, you’d save about $138 every month on your mortgage payment.

Forecast Summary: What Experts Say

  • National Association of REALTORS® expects average mortgage rates to settle around 6.4% in H2 2025 and dip further to 6.1% in 2026.
  • Fannie Mae forecasts that mortgage rates won’t drop below 6% until Q3 2026.
  • Realtor.com predicts a slow easing of rates to around 6.4% by year-end 2025.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to mostly stay near current levels, ending 2025 around 6.7% and moving toward 6.3% in 2026.

Broader Context: Why Rates Are Staying Elevated Longer Than Expected

Many predicted mortgage rates would fall over the past year, but rates have instead climbed. This is primarily due to persistent inflation and economic factors that kept the Federal Reserve cautious in cutting rates quickly.

This reality highlights why timing the market perfectly is challenging. Borrowers are often better off focusing on their personal financial readiness rather than trying to predict rate movements precisely.

Capitalize Amid Rising Mortgage Rates

With mortgage rates expected to remain high in 2025, it’s more important than ever to focus on strategic real estate investments that offer stability and passive income.

Norada delivers turnkey rental properties in resilient markets—helping you build steady cash flow and protect your wealth from borrowing cost volatility.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Speak with a seasoned Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611‑3060

Get Started Now

Also Read:

  • Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2025: Morgan Stanley's Forecast
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions 2025 from 4 Leading Housing Experts
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026, 2027, 2028
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Forecast for the Next 5 Years
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years: 2025-2029
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 3% Again in the Future?
  • Mortgage Rates Predictions for Next 2 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions for Next 5 Years
  • Mortgage Rate Predictions: Why 2% and 3% Rates are Out of Reach
  • How Lower Mortgage Rates Can Save You Thousands?
  • How to Get a Low Mortgage Interest Rate?
  • Will Mortgage Rates Ever Be 4% Again?

Filed Under: Financing, Mortgage Tagged With: Interest Rate, mortgage, Mortgage Rate Trends, mortgage rates, Mortgage Rates Today

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