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Today’s 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rises Back – June 23, 2025

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Worried about rising interest rates? You're not alone. As of today, June 23, 2025, the national average 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) has risen to 7.08%. This increase, while seemingly small, can have a significant impact on your home buying or refinancing plans. Let's unpack what's happening with mortgage rates right now and how it might affect you.

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rises Back – June 23, 2025

Think of a mortgage as a marathon, not a sprint. Even a slight change in the interest rate can significantly impact how much you pay month to month and overall in the long run for your home. A seemingly small decimal point difference can add up to thousands of dollars over the life of a 30-year mortgage. This is why keeping an eye on these fluctuations is incredibly important, even if you're not actively looking to buy or refinance right now.

What's Happening with Mortgage Rates Today?

Let's dive into the specifics as of today, June 23, 2025, derived from Zillow's latest data:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Averaging 6.88%, down 2 basis points from 6.90% prior day & down 3 basis points from previous week
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Currently at 5.91%, decreased 1 basis point from 5.92% prior day & down 5 basis points from previous week
  • 5-Year ARM: Sitting at 7.08%, up 3 basis points from 7.05% prior day & down 12 basis points from previous week

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.88% down 0.04% 7.31% down 0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.37% down 0.21% 6.80% down 0.16%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.91% down 0.05% 6.19% down 0.07%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% down 0.08% 6.04% down 0.03%
7-Year ARM 7.50% up 0.07% 7.73% down 0.09%
5-Year ARM 7.08% down 0.12% 7.72% down 0.07%
3-Year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.35% up 0.02% 8.38% up 0.02%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.43% up 0.02% 6.66% up 0.05%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.11% up 0.51% 7.08% up 0.51%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.98% up 0.06% 6.34% up 0.10%

Jumbo Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.41% up 0.14% 7.88% up 0.20%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.55% down 0.04% 6.86% up 0.01%
7-Year ARM Jumbo 7.53% 0.00% 8.06% 0.00%
5-Year ARM Jumbo 7.53% down 0.18% 7.97% down 0.12%
3-Year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

What is an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM)?

An ARM is a type of mortgage where the interest rate is fixed for an initial period, and then it adjusts periodically based on a benchmark interest rate. In the case of a 5-year ARM, the rate is fixed for the first five years, after which it can adjust annually.

The Pros and Cons of an ARM:

  • Pros:
    • Lower Initial Interest Rate: ARMs often start with a lower interest rate than fixed-rate mortgages, potentially saving you money in the first few years.
    • Good for Short-Term Homeownership: If you plan to move before the fixed-rate period ends, an ARM can be a cost-effective option.
    • Potential for Rate Decreases: If interest rates fall during the adjustable period, your mortgage payments could decrease.
  • Cons:
    • Interest Rate Risk: The biggest risk is that interest rates could rise significantly after the fixed-rate period, leading to higher monthly payments.
    • Complexity: ARMs can be more complex than fixed-rate mortgages, making them harder to understand.
    • Payment Shock: If rates rise sharply after the fixed period, you could experience “payment shock,” where your monthly payments become unaffordable.

Why is the 5-Year ARM Rate Rising?

Several factors influence mortgage rates, and it's rarely one single event that causes them to fluctuate. Here are some of the primary drivers:

  • The Federal Reserve (The Fed): The Fed's monetary policy decisions, particularly changes to the federal funds rate, have a direct impact on borrowing costs. If the Fed raises rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates typically follow suit.
  • Inflation: Inflation erodes the value of money. Lenders demand higher interest rates to compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power over the life of the loan.
  • The Economy: A strong economy often leads to higher interest rates as demand for borrowing increases. Conversely, a weak economy can lead to lower rates as the Fed tries to stimulate growth.
  • Global Events: Unexpected global events, such as geopolitical instability or economic crises, can create uncertainty in the market and influence interest rates.
  • Investor Confidence: Mortgage rates are also influenced by how investors feel. If investors are confident in the market, rates may remain stable; however, if investors are unsure, rates may rise.

How Does This Affect Homebuyers and Homeowners?

For those looking to buy a home or refinance, here’s what you need to consider:

  • For Homebuyers:
    • Affordability Check: Rising rates mean reduced affordability. Reassess your budget and how much you can comfortably afford each month.
    • Consider a Lock: If you find a rate you like, consider locking it in to protect yourself from further increases prior to closing.
    • Explore All Options: Don't just look at one type of mortgage. Consider fixed-rate options, different ARM terms, and government-backed loans to find the best fit.
  • For Homeowners:
    • If You Have an ARM: Be prepared for potential rate adjustments. Review your loan terms and understand how often your rate can change and what the maximum rate is.
    • Refinance Evaluation: If rates are still lower than your current ARM rate, consider refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage for stability. I always tell my clients to do the math and figure out the break even point and if it makes sense as per future goals.
    • Budgeting: Prepare for potential increases in your monthly payments.

What to Do During Rate Volatility

Navigating the mortgage market can be tricky, especially when rates are fluctuating. Here's my take, based on years of experience helping people achieve their homeownership goals:

  • Don't Panic: Market fluctuations are normal. Making rash decisions based on short-term rate movements is rarely a good idea.
  • Do Your Research: Understand the different types of mortgages and how they work. Don't rely solely on what you hear from friends or family.
  • Get Professional Advice: Talk to a qualified mortgage broker or financial advisor. They can provide personalized guidance based on your specific financial situation and goals.
  • Focus on Long-Term Goals: Consider your long-term financial goals and how buying a home fits into that plan. Don't let short-term rate fluctuations derail your dreams.
  • Shop Around: Don't settle for the first offer you receive. Get quotes from multiple lenders to ensure you're getting the best possible rate and terms.

What to Expect in the Near Future

Predicting the future is impossible, but we can make educated guesses based on economic trends and expert opinions. Keep an eye on:

  • Inflation Data: Watch for upcoming inflation reports, as they will heavily influence the Fed's decisions.
  • Fed Meetings: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meetings and announcements regarding monetary policy.
  • Economic Indicators: Monitor key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment figures, and consumer spending.

Final Thoughts

The rise of the 5-year ARM to 7.08% today highlights the ever-changing nature of the mortgage market. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or a seasoned homeowner, staying informed and seeking expert advice is crucial. Remember, knowledge is power when it comes to making sound financial decisions.

By carefully evaluating your options, understanding the risks and benefits of different mortgage products, and working with trusted professionals, you can navigate the mortgage market with confidence and achieve your homeownership goals.

Capitalize on Lower ARM Rates Before They Rise Again

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

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Mortgage Rates Today – June 23, 2025: Rates Remain Stable With 30-Year FRM at 6.90%

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As of June 23, 2025, mortgage rates in the United States remain stable, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.90%, down slightly from last week's rate of 6.91%. Meanwhile, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage has risen modestly to 5.93%. These figures indicate a slight decline in long-term fixed mortgage rates, which may provide homebuyers and those looking to refinance an intriguing opportunity.

Mortgage Rates Today – June 23, 2025: Rates Remain Stable With 30-Year FRM at 6.90%

Key Takeaways:

  • Current 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.90%
  • Current 15-year fixed mortgage rate: 5.93%
  • Average rates for refinances have decreased, with the 30-year refinance rate now at 7.07%.
  • The housing market is showing signs of recovery, influencing mortgage trends.

Current Mortgage Rates

Here’s a closer look at various mortgage rates available today (June 23, 2025).

Loan Type Current Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change APR
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.90% Down 0.01% 7.32% Down 0.05%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.37% Down 0.21% 6.80% Down 0.16%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.93% Up 0.03% 6.20% Down 0.06%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% Down 0.08% 6.04% Down 0.03%
5-Year ARM 7.03% Down 0.18% 7.73% Down 0.06%

(Source: Zillow)

Current Refinance Rates

For those considering refinancing, here are the current rates (June 23, 2025):

Refinance Type Current Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change APR
30-Year Fixed Refinance 7.07% Down 0.10% 7.32% Down 0.05%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.94% Down 0.08% 6.20% Down 0.06%
5-Year ARM Refinance 5.94% Down 0.52% 7.73% Down 0.06%

(Source: Zillow)

The slight changes in these rates suggest a more stable market, making now a potentially favorable time for buyers and homeowners looking to refinance their existing loans.

Monthly Payments Under Current Rates

Now that we've covered the current mortgage and refinance rates, let’s look at how these rates affect monthly mortgage payments. We’ll calculate the monthly payments for various mortgage amounts under the current average rates.

Monthly Payment on $150,000 Mortgage

At a rate of 6.90% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, the monthly payment would be approximately $990. This includes principal and interest but does not consider other costs such as property taxes and homeowner's insurance.

Monthly Payment on $200,000 Mortgage

For a $200,000 mortgage at the same 6.90% rate, the monthly payment rises to about $1,320. Again, this calculation focuses only on the mortgage payment, not including additional escrow items.

Monthly Payment on $300,000 Mortgage

With a mortgage of $300,000 at 6.90%, expect your monthly mortgage payment to be around $1,980. This figure reflects the principal and interest obligations; other fees may increase your total monthly payment.

Monthly Payment on $400,000 Mortgage

For a broader financial commitment, a $400,000 mortgage at 6.90% translates into a monthly payment of roughly $2,640. The payment structure remains aligned with the fixed-rate model, providing a reliable and predictable payment schedule.

Monthly Payment on $500,000 Mortgage

Lastly, for those needing a larger loan amount of $500,000, the monthly payment would be approximately $3,300 at the same interest rate. This amount, while significant, should be viewed in context with the benefits of homeownership, including potential equity growth over time.

Understanding the Market Context

The current mortgage environment is set against a backdrop of economic recovery, with predictions indicating a potential uptick in home sales throughout 2025. The National Association of Realtors forecasts strong growth in existing and new home sales, anticipating a 6% increase in existing home transactions and a 10% rise in new home sales.

Factors contributing to these trends include:

  • Increased home supply: Home construction rates are projected to pick up, helping to ease the ongoing inventory shortage.
  • Stable interest rates: With mortgage rates projected to average around 6.4% in the latter half of 2025, buyers may find themselves in a more favorable borrowing position, encouraging transactions.
  • Continued buyer demand: Even as rates fluctuate, family formations and lifestyle changes are expected to maintain interest in homebuying.

Economic Indicators Affecting Mortgage Rates

Understanding the broader economic context is essential to grasping how today's mortgage rates are influenced. A few key indicators play a significant role in shaping the trends we see in mortgage rates:

  • Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence is rising as economic conditions stabilize post-pandemic. When people feel optimistic about their financial situations, they're more likely to invest in purchasing homes.
  • Employment Rates: With unemployment rates staying low, more consumers have steady incomes, which boosts the housing market because consumers are in a better position to apply for mortgages.
  • Inflation Rates: Inflation remains a hot topic. The Federal Reserve's actions to combat inflation have direct implications for interest rates. Even just a hint of inflation can impact interest rates, as lenders may charge higher rates to compensate for the differing value of money over time.
  • Federal Reserve Actions: The Fed's decisions regarding interest rates affect the entire economy, including mortgage rates. While they aim to control inflation, any hikes or cuts in the federal funds rate will ripple through to mortgage rates, impacting the housing market.

The Future of Mortgage Rates

Realtors and analysts are keeping a close watch on future mortgage rates. Recent forecasts from key financial institutions draw a mixed picture, yet generally suggest a modest decline in rates over the next year:

  • National Association of Realtors: Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts mortgage rates might lower to an average of 6.4% in the second half of 2025 before further declining to 6.1% in 2026. Yun sees this stabilization as beneficial for buyer affordability, having a profound impact on demand in the housing market.
  • Fannie Mae: In their forecasts, Fannie Mae anticipates rates will end 2025 around 6.1%, providing buyers with better affordability options and potentially enhancing home purchases. Their optimism suggests a growing momentum in housing transactions, as buyers feel less restrained by high interest costs.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: Their projections state that rates will hover around 6.8% throughout the remainder of the year. While they indicate rates may not drastically change in the short term, an improvement in buyer interest will likely lead to increased housing market activity.

Summary:

As we monitor trends throughout June 2025, the steady mortgage rates and favorable predictions regarding home sales and construction indicate a positive shift in the housing market. While today's rates remain relatively high compared to historical lows, they offer opportunities for many — whether you are buying your first home or refinancing your existing mortgage. The shifting dynamics of economic factors, along with anticipated future rate declines, provide a hopeful outlook for potential homebuyers.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

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Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

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US-Iran War: A New Threat to America’s Shaky Economy

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Is the US heading for an economic catastrophe because of a war with Iran? Sadly, the answer is a resounding yes. Direct US military intervention in Iran, particularly the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, throws a massive wrench into an already sputtering US economy. With a contracting GDP, ongoing trade wars, and a looming recession, this conflict could be the tipping point that sends America's economy into a full-blown crisis.

US-Iran War: A New Threat to America's Shaky Economy

A Powder Keg: The Current State of US-Iran Relations

For decades, the relationship between the US and Iran has been a roller coaster of tension and hostility. It all kind of stems from the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and from then onwards, there have been arguments over Iran's nuclear ambitions that only made thing worse.

In June 2025, things went nuclear when Israel launched a unilateral attack. They targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, missile factories, and even senior military officials on June 13th.

Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks, which basically forced the US to step in with its own strikes on Iran's nuclear program. The temperature’s rising fast. Iran's foreign minister is calling this “an act of war,” and let me tell you, everyone's afraid of a bigger regional conflict.

The Trump administration, which supports Israel's goal with threats of further military action if Iran doesn't back down on that nuclear plan, has now shifted from diplomacy to military aggression. I find it a real shame that years of built-up negotiations came down to strikes.

The situation is extremely tense, especially because Iran's parliament is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a super-important oil shipping route. If that happens, it could send shock waves all over the world's economy.

An Economy on Shaky Ground

Let's be honest, the US economy was already in a fragile state even before any bombs started dropping. Several factors were already in play:

  • GDP Contraction: The US economy shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. It might not seem like much (0.3%), but this was the first decline since 2022. A lot of it happened because people were rushing to buy more imports to avoid the higher tariffs.
  • Trade Tensions: The Trump administration's actions, including the implementation of significant tariffs on April 2, 2025, which was nicknamed “Liberation Day,” hurt the economy, created a big stock market crash, and brought economic uncertainty. As an American, I wonder how we can maintain economic stability with these kinds of radical policies happening.
  • Recession Risks: Major financial institutions like J.P. Morgan are saying there's a higher chance of a recession happening. The Federal Reserve itself is saying that there's as much of a chance of a full-blown economic crisis as there is of slow growth. Pretty grim, right?
  • Market Volatility: The S&P 500 has been all over the place, but it did manage to turn positive in May 2025. Still, this inconsistency makes the economy more unpredictable.
  • Consumer and Business Confidence: People and businesses aren't feeling too confident. With trade wars and increased tariffs, they’re holding back on spending and investing.

A Recipe for Disaster: The Economic Impact of War

Wars have a long history of causing economic pain, especially if the economy is already in trouble. The US-Iran war is likely to hit the US economy in several ways:

  • Oil Price Spikes: Iran is a big oil producer, and the Strait of Hormuz is critical for transporting oil. Disruptions to either of these could cause huge price increases. Brent crude prices are already climbing.
    • Higher oil prices mean higher costs for transportation, manufacturing, and just about everything else. This could lead to higher inflation and reduce people's spending power. Now, that sounds horrible!
  • Increased Military Spending: War costs money, A LOT of money. Sending troops, buying equipment, and providing support all add up. This will put a strain on the federal budget, which is already dealing with rising debt.
    • More borrowing means higher interest rates, which reduces investment and slows down economic growth, which is another problem.
  • Market Uncertainty: Wars always make financial markets nervous. The US-Iran conflict has already caused the stock market to bounce around. Investors are running to safer investments like gold and the US dollar, which tells you they're not feeling good about the economy.
  • Global Trade Disruptions: If the conflict affects shipping routes in the Middle East or leads to more sanctions, it could hurt global trade. This would increase the cost of goods and services, further damaging the US economy.
  • Fiscal and Monetary Policy Challenges: The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot. Higher oil prices could cause inflation, and increased government borrowing could limit the government's financial options. This could lead to tighter monetary policies, which could further slow down the economy.

Specific Risks: The US-Iran War's Potential to Worsen the Crisis

The US-Iran war poses specific risks that could exacerbate the economic crisis:

  • Exacerbating Recession Risks: With the GDP contraction and trade tensions, the US is already close to a recession. The war could be what pushes it over the edge by increasing costs and reducing economic activity.
  • Inflation Pressures: Rising oil prices can lead to higher inflation, damaging consumer buying power and increase business costs.
  • Currency Fluctuations: Initially, the US dollar could grow stronger, but after conflict it could lead to devaluation.
  • Reduced Confidence: The war could hurt business and customer confidence, leading to reduced spending and investment, mixing up the issues of trade tensions.

Expert Opinions: A Cause for Concern

Those who work with financials everyday are showing substantial concern about the US-Iran conflict. Al Jazeera has warned that the global economy could face shock because of the tension of trade disturbances. CNN Business reported that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is keeping an eye on the situation. Bloomberg highlighted that the US strikes come at a “fragile time for the global economy.”

The Bottom Line: A Looming Economic Threat

The US-Iran war is a serious threat to the US economy. With trade tensions, a shrinking GDP, and the risk of recession already looming, this conflict could be the breaking point. The potential for higher oil prices, increased military spending, market volatility, and trade disruptions could make the economic crisis even worse, potentially pushing the US into recession or, worse, a financial crisis. I think policymakers need to proceed with caution to reduce risk and prevent further economic issues. One thing I'm sure of is that the future is uncertain.

Secure Your Investments Amid Geopolitical Risk

With rising tensions from a potential US‑Iran conflict, economic volatility is on the horizon. Real estate offers a tangible hedge.

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Do Mortgage Rates Go Down During an Economic Recession?

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Do mortgage rates go down during an economic recession? The short answer is, it's complicated, but often, yes, they do. While there's no guarantee, history shows that in recent decades, mortgage rates often decrease during and after a recession. This is largely due to the Federal Reserve's actions to stimulate the economy, but it's important to remember that every recession is different, and factors like inflation play a huge role. Let’s dive into why this happens, looking at past recessions and what it all means for you.

As someone who's followed the housing market and economy for a long time, I know how confusing it can be. Figuring out if now's a good time to buy a home is a big decision, and understanding how recessions affect mortgage rates is a key piece of that puzzle. I'm going to break down the historical data and the factors that drive these changes in a way that's easy to understand.

Let's find out whether mortgage rates typically drop during economic recessions by examining historical data from major U.S. recessions since 1970, drawing from sources like Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey and other economic analyses.

Do Mortgage Rates Go Down During an Economic Recession?

Historical Analysis of Mortgage Rates During U.S. Recessions

To understand the relationship between mortgage rates and recessions, let’s examine the behavior of 30-year fixed mortgage rates during each major U.S. recession since 1970, based on data from Freddie Mac and other reputable sources.

Recession Period Average Mortgage Rate Range Trend During Recession Key Influences
1973-1975 (Nov 1973 – Mar 1975) 8-9% Stable or increasing High inflation, oil crisis
1980 (Jan 1980 – Jul 1980) 13-14% Increasing Stagflation, Federal Reserve rate hikes
1981-1982 (Jul 1981 – Nov 1982) 16-18% (peaked at 18.63% in Oct 1981) Peaked, then began to decline High inflation, Federal Reserve actions
1990-1991 (Jul 1990 – Mar 1991) ~10% to ~9% Decreasing Stabilizing inflation, economic recovery
2001 (Mar 2001 – Nov 2001) ~8% to ~6.5% Decreasing Federal Reserve rate cuts, dot-com bubble burst
2007-2009 Great Recession (Dec 2007 – Jun 2009) ~6.73% to ~5% Decreasing Federal Reserve quantitative easing, housing market crash
2020 COVID-19 (Feb 2020 – Apr 2020) ~3-4% to <3% Decreasing Federal Reserve emergency measures, low pre-recession rates

1973-1975 Recession

  • Period: November 1973 – March 1975
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates started in the mid-7% range in the early 1970s and rose to around 9.19% by 1974, continuing to climb to 11.2% by 1979 (Atlantic Bay).
  • Trend: Rates did not drop during this recession. The period was marked by high inflation due to the 1973 oil crisis, which drove up borrowing costs as lenders adjusted rates to keep pace with rising prices.
  • Key Influences: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo led to hyperinflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or increase interest rates to combat rising prices.

1980 Recession

  • Period: January 1980 – July 1980
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates averaged around 13.74% in 1980, reflecting the high inflationary environment of the late 1970s.
  • Trend: Rates continued to rise during this short recession, part of a broader trend that saw rates peak in 1981. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb stagflation (high inflation and low growth) kept borrowing costs elevated.
  • Key Influences: Stagflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes to control inflation were primary drivers, making borrowing expensive.

1981-1982 Recession

  • Period: July 1981 – November 1982
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates reached an all-time high of 18.63% in October 1981, the highest recorded by Freddie Mac (Debexpert). They began to decline slightly toward the end of the recession but remained in the double digits.
  • Trend: Rates peaked during the early part of the recession and started to decline as the Federal Reserve’s policies began to tame inflation. However, they remained high throughout the recession period.
  • Key Influences: The Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, raised interest rates to combat inflation, which had risen to 9.5% by 1981. This led to unprecedented borrowing costs, but the subsequent decline in inflation allowed rates to start falling by late 1982.

1990-1991 Recession

  • Period: July 1990 – March 1991
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates were around 10.13% at the start of 1990 and began to decrease, reaching around 9% during the recession and continuing to fall to 6.94% by 1998.
  • Trend: Rates showed a downward trend during this recession, reflecting stabilizing inflation and economic recovery efforts. The 1990s saw a general decline in rates as the economy benefited from low unemployment and solid growth.
  • Key Influences: The stabilization of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s less aggressive monetary policy compared to the 1980s contributed to the decline in rates.

2001 Recession

  • Period: March 2001 – November 2001
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates started at around 8% in early 2001 and dropped to approximately 6.5% by November 2001, according to Freddie Mac data (FRED).
  • Trend: This recession saw a clear decrease in mortgage rates, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts in response to the dot-com bubble burst and economic slowdown.
  • Key Influences: The Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates to stimulate the economy, and the shift of investor focus to fixed-income investments like bonds further reduced mortgage rates.

2007-2009 Great Recession

  • Period: December 2007 – June 2009
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates were around 6.73% in late 2007 and fell to the low-to-mid-5% range by December 2008, reaching 5.4% by 2009.
  • Trend: Rates decreased significantly during this recession, starting even before the official recession period as markets anticipated economic trouble. The decline continued post-recession due to sustained Federal Reserve interventions.
  • Key Influences: The Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing, buying mortgage bonds to drive down interest rates, and the housing market crash reduced loan demand, further lowering rates.

2020 COVID-19 Recession

  • Period: February 2020 – April 2020
  • Mortgage Rates: Rates were already low, averaging 3.72% in January 2020, and fell to 3.31% by April 2020, dropping to a record low of 2.65% in January 2021.
  • Trend: This brief recession saw mortgage rates decrease sharply, continuing a downward trend that led to historic lows in 2021.
  • Key Influences: The Federal Reserve’s emergency measures, including cutting the federal funds rate to near zero, and low pre-recession rates due to a stable economy, drove rates down.

Why Do Mortgage Rates Behave This Way?

Several factors influence mortgage rate movements during recessions:

  • Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve plays a pivotal role by adjusting short-term interest rates. During recessions, the Fed often lowers the federal funds rate to encourage borrowing and spending, which indirectly affects long-term mortgage rates. This was evident in the 2001, 2007-2009, and 2020 recessions, where aggressive rate cuts and quantitative easing led to lower mortgage rates (Investopedia).
  • Inflation: High inflation, as seen in the 1970s and early 1980s, pushes mortgage rates upward as lenders demand higher returns to offset rising prices. Conversely, low inflation or deflationary pressures during recessions can lead to lower rates, as observed in the 1990s and 2000s.
  • Economic Demand: Recessions typically reduce demand for mortgages due to job losses and economic uncertainty. Lower demand can lead lenders to offer competitive rates to attract borrowers, contributing to rate declines.
  • Bond Market Dynamics: Mortgage rates are closely tied to the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. During economic uncertainty, investors often seek safe-haven assets like bonds, increasing bond prices and lowering yields, which pulls mortgage rates down.

Do Mortgage Rates Always Drop During Recessions?

Historical data indicates that mortgage rates do not always drop during recessions. In the 1973-1975 and 1980 recessions, rates were either stable or increasing due to high inflation and economic instability. The 1981-1982 recession saw rates peak at historic highs before beginning to decline. However, in more recent recessions (1990-1991, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2020), rates consistently decreased, often starting before or during the recession and continuing afterward.

This shift reflects changes in Federal Reserve policy over time. Since the 1990s, the Fed has been more proactive in cutting interest rates and implementing measures like quantitative easing to combat recessions, directly impacting mortgage rates. Additionally, lower inflation in recent decades has reduced upward pressure on rates, unlike the high-inflation environment of the 1970s and early 1980s.

Implications for Homebuyers

For homebuyers, a recession can present opportunities if mortgage rates drop, as lower rates reduce borrowing costs and increase affordability. For example, during the 2007-2009 Great Recession, rates fell to the 5% range, making homeownership more accessible for some. Similarly, the record-low rates in 2020-2021 spurred a surge in homebuying and refinancing (LendingTree).

However, recessions also bring economic challenges, such as job losses and reduced consumer confidence, which can make homebuying riskier. Home prices may also decline during recessions due to lower demand, as noted in projections for a potential 2025 recession. Homebuyers should weigh these factors and consult financial advisors to assess their personal circumstances.

In Conclusion

So, to circle back to our original question: Do mortgage rates go down during an economic recession? While it's not a sure thing, historical evidence suggests that they often do, especially in more recent times. This is largely due to the Fed's response to economic downturns, but factors like inflation can also play a role.

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to buy a home during a recession is a personal one. It depends on your financial situation, your risk tolerance, and your long-term goals. By understanding the factors that influence mortgage rates, you can make a more informed decision.

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Today’s 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage is Down by 5 Basis Points – June 22, 2025

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If you're considering a home purchase or refinance, you're likely wondering about the best option for you. As of June 22, 2025, the national average rate for a 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) is 7.03%. Let's explore whether a 5-year ARM is an appropriate option for you, considering the current interest rate environment.

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage is Down by 5 Basis Points – June 22, 2025

Let's dive right in. According to Zillow, here's a snapshot of the key mortgage rates:

  • 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage: 6.90%
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage: 5.92%
  • 5-Year ARM Mortgage: 7.03%

While the 30-year fixed rate remains a popular choice, the 5-year ARM is also a significant contender, particularly for those who don't plan to stay in their homes for the long haul.

A Closer Look at the 5-Year ARM

So, what exactly is a 5-year ARM? It's a type of mortgage where the interest rate is fixed for the first five years. After this initial period, the rate adjusts annually based on prevailing market conditions. Think of it as a hybrid – a bit of the stability of a fixed-rate mortgage combined with the potential for savings (or risks) of an adjustable-rate mortgage.

The current national average 5-year ARM mortgage rate is down 5 basis points from 7.08% to 7.03%.

To put it simply, the current rate is:

  • 7.03% on conforming loans
  • 7.65% on Jumbo loans

Why Consider a 5-Year ARM?

There are several reasons why a 5-year ARM might be an attractive option.

  • Lower Initial Interest Rate: Typically, ARMs offer lower initial interest rates compared to fixed-rate mortgages. This can translate to significant savings in your monthly payments during the first five years.
  • Short-Term Homeownership: If you know you'll only be in the home for a few years, a 5-year ARM could be a great choice. You can take advantage of the lower interest rate during your time there and avoid the risk of rate adjustments.
  • Anticipation of Lower Rates: If you believe interest rates will fall in the future, an ARM could be beneficial. When the rate adjusts, it has the potential to decrease, lowering your monthly payments.

The Risks and Considerations of an ARM

It's essential to understand the potential downsides of a 5-year ARM:

  • Interest Rate Adjustments: The biggest risk is the uncertainty of future interest rate adjustments. If rates rise, your monthly payments could increase significantly.
  • Caps on Adjustments: While ARMs have caps on how much the interest rate can adjust, these caps may not be enough to protect you from a substantial increase in your monthly payments.
  • Complexity: ARMs can be more complex than fixed-rate mortgages. It's crucial to understand the terms and conditions of the loan, including how often the rate adjusts, the index it's tied to, and the caps on adjustments.

Comparing Mortgage Rates: A Detailed Breakdown

To help you make an informed decision, let's compare the current mortgage rates for different loan types as of June 22, 2025:

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.90% down 0.03% 7.37% down 0.02%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.27% down 0.23% 6.75% down 0.15%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.92% down 0.09% 6.23% down 0.08%
10-Year Fixed Rate 6.01% up 0.01% 6.10% down 0.17%
7-year ARM 7.36% up 0.03% 7.83% down 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.03% down 0.30% 7.73% down 0.13%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Source: Zillow

Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.40% up 0.57% 8.44% up 0.58%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.39% down 0.01% 6.57% down 0.04%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 5.63% down 0.15% 6.64% down 0.11%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.89% down 0.04% 6.18% down 0.09%

Jumbo Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.23% down 0.11% 7.63% down 0.13%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.45% down 0.16% 6.72% down 0.15%
7-year ARM Jumbo 7.53% 0.00% 8.06% 0.00%
5-year ARM Jumbo 7.65% down 0.07% 8.05% down 0.06%
3-year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

Is a 5-Year ARM Right for You?

Deciding whether a 5-year ARM is the right choice depends entirely on your individual circumstances. Consider the following questions:

  • How long do you plan to stay in the home? If it's less than five years, an ARM could be a good option.
  • What is your risk tolerance? Are you comfortable with the possibility of your monthly payments increasing?
  • What are your financial goals? Are you prioritizing saving money in the short term or seeking long-term stability?

Fixed vs ARM: Which One Wins?

In the fixed versus ARM debate, there's no universal winner. Both have their pros and cons:

  • Fixed-Rate Mortgage: Offers stability and predictability. Your interest rate and monthly payments remain the same for the life of the loan.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgage: Offers the potential for lower initial interest rates and monthly payments but carries the risk of rate adjustments.

My Final Thoughts and Recommendations

As someone who has navigated the mortgage maze myself, I can tell you that there's no one-size-fits-all solution. I always suggest working closely with a reputable mortgage lender to explore your options and understand the potential risks and rewards. Don't be afraid to ask questions and seek clarification on anything you don't understand.

In conclusion, the 5-year ARM at 7.03% (as of June 22, 2025) can be a strategic financial move if it aligns with your personal circumstances and risk tolerance. Carefully consider your individual situation and consult with a financial professional to make the best decision for your needs.

Capitalize on Lower ARM Rates Before They Rise Again

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

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3 Florida Housing Markets Having the Highest Vacancy Rates

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Is finding the perfect place to live feeling like searching for a needle in a haystack? You're not alone. Many people are struggling with housing costs and availability. While some areas are facing tight markets and rising prices, there are pockets where you might find more options. According to LendingTree's analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau 2023 American Community Survey, three Florida housing markets stand out for having the highest vacancy rates: Cape Coral, North Port, and Lakeland. These areas offer a larger selection of available homes compared to other parts of the Sunshine State and the nation.

Buying a home can be overwhelming, especially as a first-time buyer. With all the market changes, you might wonder where you can get the most for your money or simply find a place to call home. I get it – I've seen firsthand how tricky the real estate world can be as an investor and someone who's closely followed market trends for years. Let’s dive deeper into why these Florida markets have such high vacancy rates and what it could mean for you.

3 Florida Housing Markets Having the Highest Vacancy Rates

Why Florida?

Florida's real estate market is famous for being dynamic, to say the least. People flock here for the warm weather, beautiful beaches, and lack of state income tax.. This constant influx of new residents inevitably impacts the housing market. However, increased building can lead to higher inventory in some regions.

Cape Coral, FL: A Vacancy Rate Leader

Key Data:

  • Vacancy Rate: 25.72%
  • Housing Unit Approvals: 35.82 per 1,000 units

Cape Coral consistently grabs headlines with its impressive vacancy rate. At over 20%, it overshadows many other areas in the U.S. What causes this high vacancy? The main reason is a wave of new construction. A large number of housing unit approvals means that there's a constant supply of new homes hitting the market. This benefits buyers and renters, giving them more choices.

My Thoughts: From an investment perspective, Cape Coral could present a mixed bag. Yes, the high vacancy rate might mean lower prices or more negotiating power. However, consider that the high supply might subdue appreciation in the short term. People who want to customize are attracted towards new construction in Cape Coral.

North Port, FL: Second Highest Vacancy

Key Data:

  • Vacancy Rate: 21.23%
  • Housing Unit Approvals: 31.46 per 1,000 units

Following closely behind Cape Coral is North Port, with a vacancy rate also exceeding 20%. Similar to its neighbor, North Port has seen substantial construction activity.

What's driving the North Port Vacancy:

  • Rapid Development: North Port is a rapidly growing city. New communities are being developed.
  • Demand and Supply: Although many people are trying to find their place in the Sun's city, there is more construction going on than demand.

My thoughts: North Port's growth is exciting, but it's important to analyze the long-term sustainability. Will demand keep pacing up with supply, or will these high vacancy rates last for a while? For potential homeowners or investors, researching the specific neighborhoods and planned developments is essential.

Lakeland, FL: Third Highest Vacancy

Key Data:

  • Vacancy Rate: 16.11%

Lakeland has a relatively high vacancy rate.

Reasons Behind Lakeland's Vacancy:

  • Construction boom: The continuing construction is leading to vacancies.
  • Changing demographics: With more people moving to the suburb areas, it is seeing more vacancy.

My thoughts: The changing demographics in Lakeland may cause fluctuation in vacancy rates. Understanding these trends will be very important for both buyers and investors looking for long-term stability and growth in the area.

Why High Vacancy Rates Matter

High vacancy rates create a unique opportunity for buyers and renters to negotiate prices and find better deals.

Pros:

  • Lower Prices: Increased supply often leads to more competitive pricing.
  • More Options: Buyers and renters have a larger selection of properties to choose from.
  • Negotiating Power: High vacancy rates can give buyers more leverage in negotiations.

Cons:

  • Slower Appreciation: The increased supply can inhibit appreciation in the short term.
  • Impact on Wealth Building: Slow appreciation leads to less equity
  • Neighborhood Concerns: Very high vacancy rates may lead to concerns about community stability.

How to Take Advantage of the Opportunity

If you're considering buying or renting in one of these Florida markets, here's my advice:

  1. Shop Around: Don't settle for the first property you see. Take your time to explore different neighborhoods and compare prices.
  2. Negotiate: Don't be afraid to negotiate the price or rental terms. High vacancy rates mean sellers and landlords want to fill their properties.
  3. Due Diligence: Research the local market trends, planned developments, and potential future growth.
  4. Consider Long-Term Goals: Think about your long-term financial goals for the property, if you buy it.

Beyond Vacancy Rates: Other Market Factors

While vacancy rates are a useful indicator, remember to consider other factors like:

  • Job Growth: A strong job market attracts new residents, which can impact housing demand.
  • Economic Development: New infrastructure and businesses can increase the desirability of an area.
  • Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can affect affordability and buyer demand.
  • Demographics: Shifts in demographics, such as age and income levels, can influence housing needs.

Expert Advice for Navigating the Housing Market

Here are some tips from industry experts that I find insightful:

  • Matt Schulz (LendingTree): “Don’t fall in love with the first property you see. Get your credit in order. Build a strong emergency fund.”

I agree whole heartedly with Matt. Buying a home is a huge financial commitment, so preparation is key.

What does it all mean?

The 3 Florida Housing Markets Having the Highest Vacancy Rates: Cape Coral, North Port, and Lakeland, present unique advantages for buyers and renters. This means more options and negotiating power. Even with these advantages you need to do your research and also your due diligence. Consider all the factors and go for it.

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Mortgage Rates Today – June 22, 2025: Rates Drop Marginally Across the Board

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As of June 22, 2025, mortgage rates have slightly dropped, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.88%, down from 6.89% last week, as reported by Zillow. This downward trend can also be seen in the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate, which decreased to 5.91% from 5.92%. These changes signify a modest yet significant moment for potential homebuyers and those looking to refinance their existing loans.

Mortgage Rates Today – June 22, 2025: Rates Drop Marginally Across the Board

Key Takeaways

  • Current average 30-year mortgage rate: 6.88%
  • Current average 15-year mortgage rate: 5.91%
  • Refinance rates for 30-year fixed loans: 7.20%
  • Rates are slightly down compared to last week for most loan types

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

Understanding today’s mortgage rates is crucial for both homebuyers and those looking to refinance an existing loan. On June 22, 2025, data depict that mortgage rates are experiencing a mild decrease, which could benefit those seeking new loans or considering refinancing their current terms. The following tables summarize the current mortgage rates for various loan types.

Mortgage Rates by Loan Type

Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed 6.88% down 0.05% 7.36% down 0.03%
20-Year Fixed 6.20% down 0.30% 6.68% down 0.22%
15-Year Fixed 5.91% down 0.10% 6.23% down 0.08%
10-Year Fixed 6.01% up 0.01% 6.10% down 0.17%
7-Year ARM 7.36% up 0.03% 7.83% down 0.09%
5-Year ARM 6.99% down 0.35% 7.73% down 0.13%
3-Year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Refinance Rates by Loan Type

Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Refi 7.20% up 0.04% 7.36% down 0.03%
15-Year Fixed Refi 6.06% up 0.04% 6.23% down 0.08%
5-Year ARM Refi 7.50% unchanged — —

Source: Zillow

Trends in Mortgage Rates

Over the preceding weeks leading up to June 22, 2025, there has been a noticeable trend of decreasing mortgage rates. This decline poses an advantageous opportunity for potential homebuyers. Specifically, the 30-year fixed mortgage rates have decreased by 5 basis points this week alone from a previous average of 6.93%, indicating a positive shift in borrowing costs for consumers. This is particularly encouraging for first-time homebuyers who may have found the higher rates of the past couple of years daunting.

Conversely, for those interested in refinancing, the current national average for 30-year fixed refinance loans is 7.20%, which shows a slight increase from the previous week’s rate of 7.16%. The fluctuation in refinance rates reflects broader economic factors, including changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market demands.

Refinancing Options in Today’s Market

Refinancing remains a viable option for homeowners looking to either lower their monthly payments or tap into their home equity. Mortgage rates for refinance options include both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).

  • Fixed-rate loans provide stability in monthly payments, ideal for those looking for predictability over a long term. For example, if you currently have a mortgage at a higher interest rate, refinancing to a lower fixed rate can save you hundreds of dollars each month. This stability can be particularly useful during times of economic uncertainty.
  • Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can initially offer lower rates compared to fixed options, but they carry a risk as rates can change over time. For instance, a homebuyer who secures a 5-year ARM might benefit from a lower initial payment, but if interest rates rise after the initial period, their payments could significantly increase.

According to a report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, rates are projected to remain around 6.8% through September, before trending slightly lower by year-end. This ongoing variability presents a particularly appealing scenario for those looking to refinance, as even a small drop in rates could result in major savings over the life of a loan.

Fannie Mae and Long-Term Forecasts

The long-term outlook for mortgage rates remains cautiously optimistic, with projections from Fannie Mae estimating rates to fall to 6.1% by the end of 2025, and further to 5.8% in 2026. These predictions should excite potential buyers, as lower rates can lead to cheaper mortgage payments. The Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to combat inflation have led to frequent adjustments in interest rates, but the overall forecast suggests a more stable environment for borrowers.

Fannie Mae's updated forecast for home sales has also been revised to 4.92 million, indicating a healthy demand for housing despite economic uncertainties. The continued rise in home sales could lead to increased competition and may even drive prices up, meaning potential homebuyers should stay informed and consider their options carefully.

Economic Influences on Mortgage Rates

The current economic environment plays a significant role in shaping mortgage rates. Global economic conditions, inflation rates, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions heavily influence the mortgage market. As inflation continues to pose challenges, mortgage rates might experience variability that can either hinder or help potential buyers.

Economic reports show that as inflation remains above desired levels, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its cautious approach. For instance, insights from various economic analysts suggest that average mortgage rates might stabilize between 6.8% and 6.9% over the summer months. For prospective homebuyers, understanding these dynamics is vital. Timing the market can often mean the difference between securing a great rate and settling for one that doesn’t match financial goals.

How to Find Your Way Through Getting a Mortgage

When it comes to obtaining a mortgage, it's not just about the rates. Several factors must be considered:

  1. Credit Score: The higher your credit score, the better the interest rate you may qualify for. Lenders typically reserve their best rates for borrowers with excellent credit. Therefore, focusing on improving your credit score can be a strong strategy for securing a favorable rate.
  2. Down Payment: The size of your down payment can significantly influence your mortgage terms. A larger down payment can potentially lower your monthly payments and eliminate the need for private mortgage insurance (PMI), further reducing your overall costs.
  3. Loan Type: Choosing between conforming loans, FHA loans, VA loans, and others can impact interest rates as well. Each has unique benefits and requirements, catering to different borrower profiles.
  4. Lender Fees: Beyond interest rates, potential borrowers should watch out for origination fees, closing costs, and other lender fees that could inflate the overall cost of the mortgage. It's often advisable to compare multiple offers to find the best overall deal.

Homebuyer Sentiment and Market Reaction

As mortgage rates fluctuate, so does the sentiment among homebuyers. A decline in rates typically translates to increased activity in the housing market as buyers rush to secure lower payments. According to recent surveys, buyers are becoming increasingly optimistic about their home-buying prospects as rates have dipped, demonstrating that confidence can play a huge role in market dynamics.

Real estate experts have noted a resurgence in buyer interest in recent weeks, suggesting that potential homebuyers are responding positively to the lower rates. This renewed enthusiasm can, in turn, stimulate growth in the housing market, creating a ripple effect that benefits various sectors of the economy, including construction, renovation, and real estate services.

Summary:

As we observe the trends in mortgage rates, June 22, 2025, stands as a pivotal date for those interested in home loans or refinancing options. With rates dropping slightly for most types of loans, now may be a favorable time to consider taking a plunge into the housing market or refinancing an existing mortgage. Homebuyers and homeowners alike should stay on top of these developments and work closely with their lenders to make the most informed financial decisions, ensuring favorable outcomes even in uncertain economic times.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

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4 States Facing the Major Housing Market Crash or Correction

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Are you feeling a bit uneasy about the housing market lately? You're not alone. For years, it felt like home prices could only go up, up, up! But whispers of a potential slowdown, or even a downturn, are getting louder. If you're a homeowner or hoping to become one, understanding where the risks are highest is crucial. So, which areas should you be watching closely?

The latest data points to California, Illinois, and pockets of Florida and the New York City metropolitan area as the regions facing the most significant risk of a major housing market downturn. Let's dive into why these states are particularly vulnerable and what it could mean for you.

4 States Facing the Major Housing Market Correction Risk

Now, before you panic and start picturing tumbleweeds rolling down your street, it's important to understand what “housing market downturn or correction risk” actually means. It's not necessarily about prices crashing overnight everywhere. It's more nuanced than that. Think of it like this: certain areas have built up imbalances in their housing markets, making them more susceptible to shifts in the economic winds. These imbalances can show up in a few key ways:

  • Unaffordable Homes: When house prices rise much faster than wages, it becomes harder and harder for people to afford to buy. This strains the market, as fewer buyers can enter, leading to potential price stagnation or declines.
  • Underwater Mortgages: This happens when homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their house is actually worth. If prices drop, more people can find themselves in this situation, which can trigger foreclosures as people walk away from homes they can no longer afford and are worth less than their debt.
  • Foreclosures on the Rise: An increase in foreclosures is a sign of distress in the housing market. It can indicate that people are struggling to make payments, often due to job losses, high housing costs, or other financial pressures. Foreclosures add supply to the market, which can further push prices down.
  • Unemployment Spikes: Job losses directly impact housing. When people lose their jobs, they may struggle to pay their mortgages, leading to more foreclosures and less demand for housing overall.

Looking at these factors, recent data from ATTOM, a property data and analytics firm, sheds light on which areas are showing these warning signs most prominently. And honestly, as someone who's been observing real estate trends for a while, these findings aren't entirely surprising, but they are definitely concerning for specific regions.

California: The Golden State's Housing Market Facing a Reality Check?

California, the land of sunshine and dreams, has long been synonymous with sky-high housing costs. For years, it seemed like prices could defy gravity. However, the latest data suggests that the Golden State might be losing some of its luster, at least in certain housing markets. A significant chunk of the counties deemed most at-risk nationwide are located in California – 14 out of the top 50, to be exact! And it's not just limited to one area; the risk is spread across different parts of the state:

  • Inland California Hotspots: Places like Butte County (Chico), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Shasta County (Redding), and counties in the Central Valley like Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus are raising red flags. These are areas that have seen price growth, but perhaps without the underlying economic strength to sustain it.
  • Why Inland California is Vulnerable: Think about it – coastal California has always been expensive, but the pandemic boom sent prices soaring in more affordable inland areas too. People fled crowded cities seeking space and cheaper living. But have wages in these inland areas kept pace with these massive housing price increases? Not really. This has led to a serious affordability crunch. Add to that the potential for job losses in certain sectors, and you have a recipe for a potential downturn. Furthermore, some of these inland markets saw rapid price appreciation during the boom, making them potentially more susceptible to a correction as the market cools.
  • Southern California Concerns: Even Southern California isn't immune. Riverside and San Bernardino counties, often considered relatively more affordable compared to coastal LA or San Diego, are also on the high-risk list. This shows that affordability is becoming a statewide issue.

Let's look at some hard numbers from the report to understand why California is in this position:

Risk Factor California High-Risk Counties (Examples) National Average
Unaffordability Extremely High (e.g., Riverside County 70.4% of wages for homeownership costs) 34%
Foreclosure Rates Elevated (e.g., Madera County 1 in 631 properties) 1 in 1,671
Unemployment Rates Higher than Average (e.g., Kern County 7.9%) 4.2%

These numbers paint a clear picture. California's high-risk markets are struggling with affordability, facing higher foreclosure rates and unemployment compared to the national average. This combination makes them particularly vulnerable if economic conditions worsen or if buyer demand cools off.

Illinois: Chicago and Its Suburbs Under Pressure

Illinois, and specifically the Chicago metropolitan area, is another region flashing warning signs. The report highlights five counties in and around Chicago as being at high risk: Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties. This isn't just about the city itself, but also the surrounding suburban areas.

  • Chicago's Challenges: Chicago has faced a complex set of economic and demographic challenges in recent years. Population decline, high property taxes, and concerns about the state's financial health have weighed on the housing market. While there are still desirable neighborhoods and strong economic sectors, the overall picture is more mixed than in some other major metros.
  • Suburban Strain: The inclusion of suburban counties like Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will suggests that the affordability issues and economic headwinds are spreading beyond the city limits. These areas, while once considered more affordable alternatives to Chicago, may now be feeling the pinch as well.

Here's a glimpse at how Illinois' high-risk counties compare:

Risk Factor Illinois High-Risk Counties (Examples) National Average
Unaffordability Elevated (Though not as extreme as California) 34%
Foreclosure Rates Elevated (Though not as extreme as some other areas) 1 in 1,671
Unemployment Rates Around National Average or Slightly Higher 4.2%

While Illinois might not have the same extreme unaffordability as California, the combination of economic uncertainty, high property taxes, and potentially softening demand makes the Chicago area a region to watch closely.

Florida and the New York City Metro Area: Two Coasts, Shared Vulnerabilities

Florida and the New York City metropolitan area might seem worlds apart, but the report flags them both as having concentrations of high-risk housing markets. This underscores that housing market vulnerabilities are not geographically limited.

  • Florida's Mixed Bag: Seven counties in Florida are identified as high-risk, including Charlotte, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Pasco, Polk, and St. Lucie counties. These are spread across different parts of the state, suggesting the risks are not isolated to one particular area.
  • Florida's Rapid Growth and Potential Overbuilding: Florida has been a magnet for people relocating from other states, drawn by warmer weather, lower taxes, and a perceived lower cost of living (compared to some Northeastern states, at least). This influx of people fueled a massive housing boom. However, rapid growth can sometimes lead to overbuilding. If demand cools off, areas that have seen a surge in new construction could face increased competition and potential price adjustments. Furthermore, certain parts of Florida are more exposed to risks like rising insurance costs due to climate change, which could also impact housing affordability and demand.
  • New York City Metro Area's Persistent Unaffordability: The New York City metro area, including Kings (Brooklyn) and Richmond (Staten Island) counties in NYC itself, and Essex and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey, remains one of the most expensive housing markets in the country. While demand is typically strong in this region, the extreme level of unaffordability is a major concern.
  • NYC Metro Affordability Crisis: Consider this: in Kings County (Brooklyn), a staggering 106.5% of average local wages is needed to cover major homeownership costs! In Richmond County (Staten Island), it's still a hefty 67.6%. This is simply unsustainable for many people. Even slight economic headwinds or interest rate increases could push this already stretched market to its limits.

Here's how Florida and NYC Metro compare on key risk factors:

Risk Factor Florida/NYC Metro High-Risk Counties (Examples) National Average
Unaffordability Extreme in NYC, Elevated in Florida (e.g., Kings County 106.5%, Riverside 70.4%) 34%
Underwater Mortgages Elevated in Florida (e.g., Pasco County 15.8%) 5.7%
Foreclosure Rates Elevated in Florida (e.g., Charlotte County 1 in 198) 1 in 1,671
Unemployment Rates Around National Average or Slightly Higher 4.2%

Florida's vulnerability seems to stem more from potential overbuilding and elevated underwater mortgages and foreclosures in certain areas, while the NYC metro's risk is primarily driven by extreme unaffordability. Both represent different types of pressure on the housing market.

It's Not All Doom and Gloom: Where the Housing Market is Holding Strong

Now, before you get too worried, it's essential to remember that the housing market is incredibly localized. While some areas are facing higher risks, many parts of the country are considered much less vulnerable. The report highlights counties in the Midwest, Northeast, and South as being relatively stable. States like Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania are even pinpointed as having a significant concentration of the least at-risk markets.

  • Midwest Stability: Wisconsin, in particular, stands out with eight counties on the least-at-risk list. This suggests that the Midwest, often characterized by more moderate price appreciation and steadier economies, is proving to be a bedrock of stability in the current housing market.
  • Southern Strength: States like Tennessee and Virginia, especially around areas like Nashville and Richmond, are also showing resilience. These regions often benefit from growing economies, in-migration, and more balanced housing markets.

These less vulnerable areas generally exhibit healthier market metrics:

Risk Factor Least At-Risk Counties (Examples – Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania) National Average
Unaffordability Lower (e.g., Monongalia County, WV 23.8% of wages) 34%
Underwater Mortgages Very Low (e.g., Chittenden County, VT 0.9%) 5.7%
Foreclosure Rates Extremely Low (e.g., Cumberland County, PA 1 in 36,385 properties) 1 in 1,671
Unemployment Rates Below National Average (e.g., Chittenden County, VT 2.1%) 4.2%

These figures demonstrate the stark contrast between the high-risk and low-risk areas. The less vulnerable markets are characterized by better affordability, fewer underwater mortgages, lower foreclosure rates, and lower unemployment – all signs of a healthier and more sustainable housing market.

What Does This Mean for You? Navigating the Uncertain Housing Landscape

So, what should you take away from all this?

  • Location, Location, Location Matters More Than Ever: The housing market is not a monolith. These findings reinforce that your local market conditions are paramount. If you live in or are considering moving to California, Illinois, Florida, or the NYC metro area, especially in the counties highlighted, you need to be extra cautious and do your homework.
  • Don't Panic, But Be Prepared: A “high-risk” designation doesn't guarantee a crash. It simply means these areas are more susceptible to a downturn if broader economic conditions weaken or if buyer demand pulls back. If you're in a high-risk area:
    • Sellers: Be realistic about pricing your home. The days of easy bidding wars might be fading in these markets.
    • Buyers: Don't rush into anything. Take your time, shop around, and make sure you're comfortable with your finances, especially if interest rates remain elevated. You might have more negotiating power than you think.
    • Homeowners: Review your finances. If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, understand how rate changes could impact your payments. Consider building up your emergency savings.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: Whether you're in a high-risk or low-risk market, the fundamentals still matter. Affordability, job security, and responsible borrowing are always key to navigating the housing market, regardless of the current trends.
  • Keep an Eye on Local Data: National reports provide a broad overview, but for your specific area, keep track of local housing market data, news, and expert analysis. Real estate is intensely local, and trends can vary significantly even within the same state.

The housing market is always evolving, and predicting the future with certainty is impossible. However, by understanding the areas facing the greatest risks and the factors driving those risks, we can all make more informed decisions, whether we're buying, selling, or simply watching from the sidelines. For now, keeping a close eye on these 4 states – California, Illinois, and Florida (along with the NYC metro region) – seems like a smart move as we navigate this potentially shifting housing landscape.

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Today’s 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Drops Substantially by 31 Basis Points – June 21, 2025

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Thinking about buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage? You're probably keeping a close eye on interest rates. As of today, June 21, 2025, the national average 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rate is 7.10%. This is a significant drop of 31 basis points from last week. Let's dive deeper into what this means for you and whether a 5-year ARM is the right choice. I will explore current mortgage rate trends, the pros and cons of ARMs, and factors to consider before making a decision.

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Drops Substantially by 31 Basis Points – June 21, 2025

Mortgage rates are constantly in flux, influenced by a variety of economic factors. As of June 21, 2025, here's a snapshot of where things stand, according to the data available from Zillow:

  • 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.89% (down from 6.93% last week)
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate: 5.93% (down from 6.01% last week)
  • 5-Year ARM: 7.10% (down from 7.41% last week)

It's interesting to see the 5-year ARM trending lower than the more popular 30- year fixed rate. While a 0.31% decrease to 7.10% gives some relief, it is still crucial to weigh the pros and cons carefully.

Here's a quick comparison of the rate environment for various loan types:

Program Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.89% Down 0.04% 7.35% Down 0.04%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.93% Down 0.08% 6.23% Down 0.08%
5-Year ARM 7.10% Down 0.24% 7.76% Down 0.10%

What is a 5-Year ARM and How Does it Work?

A 5-year ARM is a mortgage with an interest rate that's fixed for the first five years. After that, the interest rate adjusts annually based on prevailing market conditions. These mortgages are often appealing because they typically offer lower initial interest rates than fixed-rate mortgages. This can translate to lower monthly payments during the initial fixed-rate period.

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Initial Fixed-Rate Period: The first five years, your interest rate remains the same, regardless of what happens in the market.
  • Adjustment Period: After five years, your interest rate adjusts – usually once per year. The adjustment is typically tied to an index, like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate(SOFR), plus a margin.
  • Rate Caps: ARMs come with rate caps, which limit how much the interest rate can increase:
    • Initial Cap: Limits the first interest rate adjustment.
    • Periodic Cap: Limits how much the interest rate can change in subsequent adjustment periods.
    • Lifetime Cap: Sets the maximum interest rate you'll ever pay over the loan's life. I always emphasize to buyers to understand these caps cold.

Advantages of a 5-Year ARM

  • Lower Initial Interest Rate: This is the biggest draw for most people. A lower rate translates to lower monthly payments in the initial years.
  • Potential Savings: If interest rates remain stable or decline after the fixed-rate period, you could save money over the life of the loan if the adjustable rate goes below the fixed rate you could have secured.
  • Good for Short-Term Homeownership: These are very useful if you anticipate moving or refinancing before the adjustment period begins.

Disadvantages of a 5-Year ARM

  • Interest Rate Risk: The biggest drawback. If interest rates rise after the fixed-rate period, your monthly payments will increase, and those increases can be substantial based on market conditions.
  • Complexity: ARMs can be more complex to understand than fixed-rate mortgages. You need to understand the index, margin, and rate caps. I highly recommend speaking with a mortgage professional.
  • Uncertainty: It's hard to predict where interest rates will be in five years, add budget accordingly. This uncertainty can make it difficult to budget for the future.

Is a 5-Year ARM Right for You? Consider These Factors

Before jumping into a 5-year ARM, ask yourself these questions:

  • How long do you plan to stay in the home? If you expect to move within five years, a 5-year ARM might be a great option as you could avoid the adjustment period altogether.
  • What's your risk tolerance? Are you comfortable with the risk that your interest rate, and therefore your monthly payment, could increase significantly in the future?
  • Can you afford higher payments? If interest rates rise substantially, could you still afford your monthly mortgage payments? I highly recommend stress-testing this possibility.
  • What are your long-term financial goals? How does the potential for adjustable rates fit into your overall financial plan?
  • Look at the Margin and Index: The fully indexed rate should be carefully considered and understood.

Comparing Government and Jumbo Loan 5-Year ARM Rates

It's also helpful to consider how the 5-year ARM rates compare across different loan types:

  • Conforming Loans: As highlighted above, the current rate is 7.10%.
  • Jumbo Loans: The 5-year ARM Jumbo sits higher, at 7.90%, reflecting the increased risk associated with larger loan amounts.
  • Government Loans The 5-year ARM is not available.

Fixed vs. Adjustable: A Quick Table

Feature Fixed-Rate Mortgage Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
Interest Rate Remains the same for the life of the loan. Changes periodically after the initial fixed-rate period.
Monthly Payments Predictable and consistent. Can fluctuate, depending on interest rate changes.
Risk Lower, since payments are stable. Higher, due to the potential for rising interest rates.
Complexity Easier to understand. More complex, requiring understanding of indexes, margins, & caps.
Best For Those who value stability and long-term predictability. Those with shorter time horizons or higher risk tolerance.

The Importance of APR (Annual Percentage Rate)

While the interest rate is important, it's also crucial to pay attention to the APR. The APR includes not only the interest rate but also other fees and charges associated with the loan, such as:

  • Origination fees
  • Discount points
  • Other closing costs

Because the APR includes these additional costs, it provides a more accurate picture of the overall cost of the loan. Always compare APRs, not just interest rates, when shopping for a mortgage.

Summary:

The 5-year ARM can be a strategic financial tool if used wisely. Given the current rate environment as of June 21, 2025, with the average hovering around 7.10%, it might be tempting if you're after a lower initial payment. However, it's imperative to weigh the risks carefully. If you're planning on moving in less than five years, or if you are comfortable with the possibility of fluctuating payments, it could be the right choice. But if you crave stability and predictability, a fixed-rate mortgage might be a better fit. Consulting with multiple lenders and financial advisors is essential to assess your particular circumstances and make the right decision.

Remember, knowledge is power. Understand all aspects of a 5-year ARM before committing. Your home is likely the biggest investment you'll ever make, so proceed with caution, do your homework, and make sure it aligns with your long-term financial goals.

Capitalize on Lower ARM Rates Before They Rise Again

With fluctuating adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), savvy investors are exploring flexible financing options to maximize returns.

Norada offers a curated selection of ready-to-rent properties in top markets, helping you capitalize on current mortgage trends and build long-term wealth.

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Mortgage Rates Today – June 21, 2025: 30-Year and 15-Year Fixed Rates Go Down

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As of June 21, 2025, mortgage rates have seen a slight drop. The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.88%, down from 6.91% in the previous week. This decrease reflects recent trends in the housing market and indicates that current mortgage rates are lower compared to previous weeks. Similarly, average refinance rates for various loan types have either decreased or remained steady.

Today's Mortgage Rates – June 21, 2025: Rates Decline Slightly

Key Takeaways

  • 30-Year Fixed Rate: Currently at 6.88%, down 3 basis points from the last week.
  • 15-Year Fixed Rate: Now at 5.93%, experiencing a minor decline.
  • 5-Year ARM: Dropped significantly to 7.05%.
  • 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: Increased slightly to 7.15%.
  • Market Trends: The Mortgage Bankers Association projects stability in mortgage rates for the near future.

Understanding Current Mortgage Rates

Today's mortgage rates are shaped by a variety of factors, including economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and borrower demand. On June 21, 2025, we can observe that borrowers are benefiting from slightly lower mortgage rates for the most common types of loans.

The current average rates for different mortgage types can be summarized as follows, based on recent data from Zillow:

Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed 6.88% -0.05% 7.33% -0.06%
20-Year Fixed 6.44% -0.06% 6.90% 0.00%
15-Year Fixed 5.93% -0.08% 6.21% -0.09%
10-Year Fixed 5.87% -0.13% 6.23% -0.04%
5-Year ARM 7.05% -0.36% 7.74% -0.12%
7-Year ARM 7.56% +0.24% 7.94% +0.02%

This slight downward trend in 30-year fixed rates is remarkable in an environment where larger economic concerns tend to keep interest rates variable. With the Federal Reserve signaling a hold on any rate hikes, this serves to reinforce expectations for stability in mortgage rates throughout the upcoming months.

Current Refinance Rates

For homeowners considering refinancing, the current rates are just as pertinent. The average for a 30-year fixed refinance rate has risen slightly to 7.15%, up 2 basis points from 7.13% observed last week. In contrast, the average 15-year fixed refinance rate has seen a subtle lift to 6.04%, marking a small increase of 1 basis point.

Here’s a breakdown of the current refinance rates based on recent data from Zillow:

Refinance Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed 7.15% +0.02% 7.33% -0.06%
15-Year Fixed 6.04% +0.01% 6.21% -0.09%
5-Year ARM 8.05% N/A N/A N/A

Refinancing opportunities remain attractive, even amidst the small increases observed in certain fixed terms. Homeowners wishing to tap into their home's equity or lock in a lower monthly payment can still find options that make it worthwhile.

Fixed Rate vs Adjustable Rate Mortgages

It’s essential to understand the difference between fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) when evaluating mortgage rates. Fixed-rate mortgages offer stability by maintaining a set interest rate for the life of the loan, which makes budgeting more predictable for homeowners. Conversely, ARMs can adapt over time, often starting with lower initial rates but may increase after a predetermined period based on market conditions.

Currently, the 5-year ARM has seen a notable decrease, landing at 7.05%, whereas the 7-year ARM has experienced a slight uptick to 7.56%. The decision between a fixed and adjustable rate mortgage often depends on individual preferences—especially with the potential variability in monthly payments for ARMs in the future.

Economic Factors Affecting Mortgage Rates

The broader economic environment significantly influences mortgage rates. Key factors include the state of the economy, inflation rates, employment statistics, and the actions of the Federal Reserve. Right now, the Fed is holding steady with interest rates, which reassures the market and keeps mortgage rates relatively stable.

One critical point to note is that mortgage rates tend to rise in line with inflation. Despite recent increases in inflationary pressures, consumers and economists alike are hopeful that a robust job market and continued domestic growth will help to keep rates within a manageable range.

Looking Ahead: Market Predictions

With the economic indicators showing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook, mortgage rates appear poised to remain steady through the latter half of 2025 and into 2026. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, there continues to be modest growth in home purchasing applications relative to last year, which is a promising sign for both sellers and potential buyers.

Fannie Mae's forecast suggests that rates may settle around 6.1% by the end of 2025 and further decline to 5.8% by 2026, indicating a slow but steady improvement in borrowing conditions. This outlook not only helps buyers plan their future home purchases but also comforts existing homeowners contemplating refinancing at more favorable terms.

The Importance of Shopping Around

In a fluctuating market, one of the best strategies for consumers is to shop around and compare offers from different lenders. Rates and terms can vary widely depending on the lender’s qualifications and policies. Homebuyers are encouraged to obtain multiple quotes to ensure they secure the best rate possible. Additional factors often come into play, such as discount points, closing costs, and lender fees, all of which can impact the total cost of the mortgage.

Refinancing: A Viable Option for Homeowners

Refinancing remains a viable option for many homeowners seeking lower rates or better payment terms. With mortgage rates hovering around their current levels, many homeowners may find it advantageous to refinance. Keeping track of rate trends can assist homeowners in deciding the best time to enter the refinancing market.

The current uptick in refinancing rates reflects broader economic conditions, yet many homeowners still find substantial savings. It's essential for homeowners to consider their long-term plans, as refinancing involves costs and should align with their financial goals.

Summary: Mortgage rates on June 21, 2025, showcase a slight decline for fixed-rate mortgages while refinancing rates are mixed, indicating that potential homebuyers and existing homeowners looking to refinance should closely monitor the market. Although there is no rush, as current trends suggest that rates will likely stabilize, making smart decisions today can have lasting benefits in the future.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

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