Are you thinking about buying or selling a home in Bend, Oregon? Understanding the current Bend housing market trends is crucial for making informed decisions. In short, the Bend housing market is somewhat competitive, with homes selling around the $675,000 mark. While prices are down slightly compared to last year, the market dynamics are shifting, so let’s dive into the details.
Navigating the Current Bend Housing Market Trends:
Home Sales
Let's start with the number of homes changing hands. In January 2025, there were 122 homes sold in Bend. This represents a significant increase of 20.8% compared to the 101 homes sold during the same period last year. This uptick in sales suggests renewed activity in the market, potentially driven by factors like stabilizing interest rates or increased buyer confidence.
Home Prices
Now, let’s talk about the figures that everyone keeps an eye on: home prices. The median sale price of a home in Bend during January 2025 was $675,000. While this is a decrease of 2.8% compared to last year, it's important to put this in perspective.
Are Home Prices Dropping?
Yes, there's been a slight dip year-over-year. However, I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that prices are collapsing. A 2.8% decrease isn’t a massive drop. It could indicate a slight correction after a period of rapid growth.
Comparison with Current National Median Price
How does Bend compare nationally? Well, the national median home price in December 2024 was $407,500, with a year-over-year increase of 6%. This means that, while Bend has seen a small price decrease, the national market is still experiencing growth. Moreover, Bend's median home price remains significantly higher than the national average, reflecting its desirability and unique appeal. This difference likely reflects the higher demand and limited supply in Bend, as well as the area's desirability as a place to live.
Housing Supply
The number of homes available for sale is a critical factor influencing market dynamics. Unfortunately, the data doesn't explicitly state the current housing supply in Bend. However, we can infer from other metrics. The fact that homes are selling in around 66 days suggests that there isn't an overwhelming glut of inventory. If there were a massive oversupply, homes would likely sit on the market for much longer.
Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
Determining whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market requires a balanced view. The data paints a picture of a somewhat competitive market.
- Homes are selling in approximately 59 days.
- The average homes sell for about 1% below list price.
- Sale-to-List Price is at 99.1%, which is +0.2 pt year-over-year
- Homes Sold Above List Price is 12.3%, which is -6.5 pt year-over-year
- Homes with Price Drops is 28.5%, which is +10.8 pt year-over-year
This means that the average homes sell for about 1% below list price and go pending in around 59 days.
Homes sell in around 66 days on average compared to 47 days last year. This is a strong indicator that it leans towards being a balanced market, maybe tilting slightly towards buyers. Sellers might need to be more realistic with their pricing expectations, while buyers have a bit more room to negotiate.
Market Trends
Several trends are shaping the Bend housing market:
- Migration Patterns: Bend continues to attract people from other areas, particularly Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco. This influx of new residents keeps demand relatively high.
- Outbound Migration: Some residents are leaving Bend, with Newport, Phoenix, and Tucson being popular destinations. This outflow could be due to factors like cost of living or lifestyle preferences.
- Sale-to-List Price Ratio: The sale-to-list price ratio is at 99.1%. This means that, on average, homes are selling for slightly below their listed price.
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates play a HUGE role in housing affordability. As of February 2025, mortgage rates are hovering around 7%. This is significantly higher than the rates we saw a few years ago, which impacts affordability and can cool down buyer demand. Here's how:
- Reduced Affordability: Higher rates mean higher monthly payments. This limits the number of people who can qualify for a mortgage and reduces the amount they can borrow.
- Slower Sales: When mortgages are more expensive, buyers become more cautious. They might take longer to make a decision or opt to wait for rates to come down.
- Price Adjustments: High rates can put downward pressure on home prices. Sellers might need to lower their asking prices to attract buyers in a high-rate environment.
Additional Factors to Consider
Beyond the headline numbers, here are a few other things to keep in mind:
- Neighborhood Variations: The Bend housing market isn't monolithic. Different neighborhoods will have their own unique dynamics. For example, areas closer to downtown or with better schools might be more competitive.
- Property Type: Condos, townhouses, and single-family homes can experience different market trends.
- Seasonal Fluctuations: Real estate markets often have seasonal patterns. Spring and summer tend to be the busiest times for buying and selling.
Bend, OR Housing Market: Key Data Points (January 2025)
| Metric | Value | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $675,000 | -2.8% |
| Number of Homes Sold | 122 | +20.8% |
| Median Days on Market | 66 | +19 |
| Sale-to-List Price | 99.1% | +0.2 pt |
| Homes Sold Above List Price | 12.3% | -6.5 pt |
| Homes with Price Drops | 28.5% | +10.8 pt |
My Take on the Bend Housing Market
Based on the data and my own observations, I believe the Bend housing market is in a period of transition. The rapid price growth of the past few years has slowed, and the market is becoming more balanced. While prices are down slightly, demand remains relatively strong, supported by migration patterns and Bend's overall desirability. High mortgage rates are definitely a factor, but they haven't completely derailed the market.
Bend Housing Market Forecast: What's Next for Central Oregon Real Estate?
If you're wondering about the Bend housing market forecast, especially whether prices will rise, fall, or stay the same, here's the bottom line: According to the latest projections, the Bend, Oregon housing market is expected to see moderate growth over the next year. While there might be some slight dips in the short term, forecasts suggest an overall positive trend for home values in the area.
Let's dive deeper into what the data and other factors are telling us about the future of real estate in Bend. As someone who has been observing the Bend real estate scene for a while now, I'm happy to share my insights.
What the Numbers Say: A Detailed Look at the Forecast
Zillow, a well-known name in real estate data, provides some valuable insights into where the Bend housing market might be heading. Here's a breakdown of their latest Bend housing market predictions:
| Region | Feb 2025 Forecast Change | Apr 2025 Forecast Change | Jan 2026 Forecast Change (Year-over-Year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bend, OR | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
Breaking Down the Numbers:
- Near-Term Fluctuations: The forecast for February 2025 indicates a slight dip of -0.1%. This could be due to seasonal factors or short-term market adjustments.
- Spring Bounce? By April 2025, the forecast turns positive, with a projected increase of 0.2%. This aligns with the typical spring buying season, where demand often picks up.
- Looking Ahead to 2026: The most significant figure is the 1.6% increase projected for the year leading up to January 2026. This suggests that while there might be some ups and downs along the way, the overall trend for Bend home values is expected to be upward.
How Does Bend Stack Up Against Other Oregon Markets?
To get a better sense of the Bend real estate forecast, let's compare it to other cities in Oregon:
| Region | Feb 2025 Forecast Change | Apr 2025 Forecast Change | Jan 2026 Forecast Change (Year-over-Year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bend, OR | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| Portland, OR | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.8% |
| Salem, OR | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Eugene, OR | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Medford, OR | 0.0% | -0.2% | -1.3% |
| Albany, OR | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Roseburg, OR | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Corvallis, OR | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
Key Takeaways:
- Bend's Growth Potential: Bend's projected 1.6% growth is among the highest in the state, suggesting a relatively strong housing market compared to other areas.
- Portland's Challenges: Portland is facing a slight decline (-0.8%), which could be attributed to various factors like increased inventory or changing migration patterns.
- Mixed Bag Across the State: Other cities like Salem, Eugene, and Corvallis are expected to see modest growth, while Medford is facing a more significant downturn.
Will Home Prices Drop in Bend? Could a Crash Happen?
This is the question on everyone's mind! While the Bend housing forecast suggests overall growth, the possibility of price drops or a market crash is always a concern. Here's my take:
- No Crash Imminent: Based on the data and my understanding of the Bend market, I don't foresee a major crash. The projected growth, even if modest, indicates stability rather than a sharp decline.
- Price Corrections Possible: However, it's important to remember that real estate markets are cyclical. We might see some price corrections or periods of slower growth, especially if interest rates rise or the economy weakens. The dip in Feb 2025 is probably an example of that
- Long-Term Factors: Bend's desirability as a place to live, with its outdoor recreation, strong job market, and high quality of life, continues to support housing demand. This acts as a buffer against significant price drops.
Possible Forecast for 2026 and Beyond
While it's difficult to predict the future with certainty, here's my educated guess for the Bend real estate market forecast beyond 2025:
- Continued Growth: I expect Bend to continue experiencing moderate growth in home values over the next few years. This will be driven by ongoing demand and limited inventory.
- Slower Pace: However, the pace of growth might be slower than what we saw during the peak of the pandemic boom. A more balanced market is likely, with more inventory and less intense bidding wars.
- Factors to Watch: Keep an eye on interest rates, the local economy, and migration patterns. These factors will play a significant role in shaping the future of the Bend housing market.
Should You Invest in the Bend Real Estate Market?
So, is now a good time to invest in Bend real estate? Here are my thoughts:
- Long-Term Potential: If you're looking for a long-term investment, Bend offers excellent potential. The city's strong economy, desirable lifestyle, and projected growth make it an attractive option.
- Consider Your Goals: Think about your investment goals and risk tolerance. Real estate is a long-term game, and it's important to be prepared for potential market fluctuations.
- Work with a Professional: If you're serious about investing, I highly recommend working with a local real estate agent who understands the Bend market. They can provide valuable insights and help you find the right property for your needs.
In conclusion, the Bend housing market forecast points to continued growth, albeit at a moderate pace. While there might be some short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for Bend real estate remains positive. As always, it's important to do your research, consider your individual circumstances, and make informed decisions.
