As of the current assessment, Oregon leans towards being a seller's housing market. The demand for homes often outpaces the available inventory, leading to competitive bidding and rising prices. Low inventory levels and high demand create favorable conditions for sellers, allowing them to receive multiple offers and potentially sell their homes above asking price.
Oregon Housing Market Trends in 2024
How is the Housing Market Doing Currently?
In February 2024, the median home price in Oregon saw a modest increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year, reaching a median price of $488,300. According to the data from Redfin, however, this uptick in prices was accompanied by a slight decrease in the number of homes sold, down by 3.3% year over year. Interestingly, despite the decrease in sales volume, the median days on the market increased by 2 days, totaling 56 days on average.
How Competitive is the Oregon Housing Market?
The competitiveness of the Oregon housing market is evident from the data on sales prices. Notably, 23.7% of homes sold above their list price in February 2024, albeit a slight decrease from the previous year. Conversely, the percentage of homes with price drops rose to 25.4%, indicating a shift in negotiation dynamics.
Moreover, certain cities within Oregon stand out for their competitive nature. Wood Village, Clackamas, River Road, and others emerge as the top 10 most competitive cities in the state, where buyers often find themselves navigating multiple offers and bidding wars.
Are There Enough Homes for Sale to Meet Buyer Demand for Oregon?
Examining inventory levels provides insight into the balance between supply and demand in the housing market. In February 2024, Oregon saw an increase in the number of homes for sale, up by 1.5% compared to the previous year. Additionally, the number of newly listed homes rose by 7.7% year over year. Despite this increase in inventory, the average months of supply remained steady at 3 months.
What is the Future Market Outlook?
Forecasting the future of the Oregon housing market requires consideration of various factors, including economic indicators and demographic trends. While it's challenging to predict with certainty, analyzing current data can offer some insights.
Furthermore, examining the top 10 metros in Oregon with the fastest-growing sales prices sheds light on emerging trends within the state. Cities like Roseburg, Tigard, and Lake Oswego lead the pack, experiencing notable increases in sales prices, indicating potential areas for future investment.
Top 10 Metros in Oregon with the Fastest Growing Home Price
The Oregon housing market's dynamics vary across different metros. The top 10 metros with the fastest-growing sales prices include:
- Roseburg, OR35.3%
- Tigard, OR18.5%
- Lake Oswego, OR13.2%
- West Linn, OR11.5%
- Gresham, OR10.7%
- Redmond, OR9.7%
- Beaverton, OR7.0%
- Albany, OR6.1%
- Eugene, OR3.9%
- Hillsboro, OR
What is Oregon Housing Market Forecast for 2024 and 2025?
According to Zillow, the average home value in Oregon stands at $487,244, reflecting a 1.5% increase over the past year. Homes in Oregon typically go to pending within approximately 35 days.
For Sale Inventory:
As of February 29, 2024, Oregon boasts 11,181 properties listed for sale. This figure provides a snapshot of the available housing stock in the state, influencing factors such as supply and demand dynamics and pricing trends.
New Listings:
During the same period, 2,567 new listings entered the Oregon housing market. New listings are indicative of market activity and can influence buyer sentiment and competitive dynamics.
Median Sale to List Ratio:
The median sale to list ratio, standing at 0.989 as of January 31, 2024, reflects the relationship between the final sale price of homes and their listed prices. This metric offers insights into pricing strategies and negotiation dynamics within the Oregon housing market.
Median Sale Price and Median List Price:
As of January 31, 2024, the median sale price in Oregon stands at $461,958, while the median list price as of February 29, 2024, is $497,667. Understanding the disparity between these figures provides insights into pricing trends and market competitiveness.
Percent of Sales Over and Under List Price:
Examining the percentage of sales over and under list price offers valuable insights into market demand and pricing dynamics. As of January 31, 2024, 22.3% of sales in Oregon were over list price, while 57.1% were under list price. These figures shed light on competitive pressures and buyer-seller negotiations.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Oregon?
While there may be fluctuations in specific areas or periods, overall, home prices in Oregon have been on an upward trend in recent years. Factors such as population growth, limited housing supply, and strong demand contribute to the overall appreciation of home prices. However, localized factors and economic conditions can influence short-term fluctuations.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Oregon?
The decision of whether it's a good time to buy a house in Oregon depends on individual circumstances and preferences. While the current market may favor sellers due to high demand and low inventory, it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad time to buy. Interest rates remain relatively low as compared to last year, making homeownership more affordable for buyers. Additionally, buying a house is a long-term investment, and timing the market perfectly is challenging. It's essential to consider factors such as personal financial situation, housing needs, and long-term goals when making the decision to buy a house.
Regional Housing Market Forecast for Oregon
Examining the regional housing market forecast for various cities in Oregon provides valuable insights into the localized trends and potential trajectories of real estate markets across the state. From bustling metropolitan areas to charming smaller cities, each region presents unique dynamics influenced by factors such as economic growth, population trends, and industry specialization.
Portland, OR
- Portland, as a major metropolitan statistical area (MSA), exhibits a forecasted 0.2% increase in housing market growth by 31-03-2024, followed by a more substantial 0.5% rise by 31-05-2024. However, the forecast suggests a slight decline of -0.9% by 28-02-2025, indicating potential market stabilization or correction.
Salem, OR
- Similarly, the housing market in Salem, Oregon's capital city, is projected to experience a 0.3% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.6% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast suggests continued positive momentum with a 0.1% rise by 28-02-2025.
Eugene, OR
- Eugene, known for its vibrant culture and outdoor recreational opportunities, is forecasted to see a 0.1% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.2% rise by 31-05-2024. The forecast indicates sustained growth potential with a 0.3% increase by 28-02-2025.
Medford, OR
- Medford, situated in the scenic Rogue Valley, is projected to experience a 0.2% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.4% growth by 31-05-2024. However, the forecast suggests a potential downturn with a -1.4% decline by 28-02-2025.
Bend, OR
- Bend, renowned for its outdoor recreational opportunities and vibrant arts scene, is forecasted to see a 0% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast indicates a significant 1.8% rise by 31-05-2024, suggesting robust growth potential in the mid-term.
Albany, OR
- Finally, Albany, a charming city situated in the heart of the Willamette Valley, is projected to experience a 0.3% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.6% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast indicates continued positive momentum with a 1% rise by 28-02-2025.
Roseburg, OR
- Roseburg, nestled in the scenic Umpqua Valley, is forecasted to see a 0.2% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.6% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast indicates continued positive momentum with a 1.3% rise by 28-02-2025.
Corvallis, OR
- Corvallis, known for its vibrant cultural scene and proximity to Oregon State University, is projected to experience a 0.1% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.4% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast suggests moderate growth potential with a 0.2% increase by 28-02-2025.
Hermiston, OR
- Hermiston, located in Eastern Oregon, is forecasted to see a 0.3% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a more substantial 1% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast indicates robust growth potential with a 1.8% rise by 28-02-2025.
Grants Pass, OR
- Grants Pass, situated in the scenic Rogue Valley, is projected to experience stability with no change in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast suggests a slight decline of -0.3% by 31-05-2024, followed by a more significant -2% decrease by 28-02-2025.
Klamath Falls, OR
- Klamath Falls, known for its stunning natural beauty and outdoor recreational opportunities, is forecasted to see no change in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast indicates positive growth with a 0.5% rise by 31-05-2024, followed by a significant 1.9% increase by 28-02-2025.
Coos Bay, OR
- Coos Bay, situated along the picturesque Oregon Coast, is projected to see a slight decline of -0.1% in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast suggests stability with no change by 31-05-2024, followed by a 0.7% increase by 28-02-2025.
Ontario, OR
- Ontario, located in Eastern Oregon near the Idaho border, is forecasted to experience significant growth in its housing market. The forecast suggests a 0.5% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 1.2% rise by 31-05-2024, and a substantial 4.8% increase by 28-02-2025.
Newport, OR
- Newport, located along the stunning Oregon coast, is forecasted to see stability with no change in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast suggests moderate growth with a 0.4% increase by 31-05-2024, followed by a more substantial 2% rise by 28-02-2025.
Astoria, OR
- Astoria, known for its historic charm and scenic beauty, is projected to experience positive growth in its housing market. The forecast indicates a 0.1% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.5% rise by 31-05-2024, and a further 1.4% increase by 28-02-2025.
The Dalles, OR
- The Dalles, nestled in the picturesque Columbia River Gorge, is forecasted to see a 0.1% increase in its housing market by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.6% growth by 31-05-2024. The forecast indicates continued positive momentum with a 0.9% rise by 28-02-2025.
La Grande, OR
- La Grande, situated in the scenic Grande Ronde Valley, is projected to experience growth in its housing market. The forecast suggests a 0.1% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.6% rise by 31-05-2024, and a further 1.2% increase by 28-02-2025.
Prineville, OR
- Prineville, known for its outdoor recreational opportunities and vibrant community, is forecasted to experience growth in its housing market. The forecast indicates a 0.2% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.7% rise by 31-05-2024, and a further 1.5% increase by 28-02-2025.
Hood River, OR
- Hood River, nestled in the scenic Columbia River Gorge, is projected to see stability with no change in its housing market by 31-03-2024. However, the forecast suggests a slight decline with a 0.3% decrease by 31-05-2024.
Brookings, OR
- Brookings, located along the picturesque Southern Oregon coast, is forecasted to experience growth in its housing market. The forecast indicates a 0.2% increase by 31-03-2024, followed by a 0.7% rise by 31-05-2024, and a further 0.2% increase by 28-02-2025.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?
There is no definitive answer to whether the housing market in Oregon will crash. While certain indicators such as rising home prices and low inventory levels may raise concerns about a potential market correction, various factors contribute to the overall stability of the market. Economic conditions, government policies, and market dynamics all play significant roles in shaping the trajectory of the housing market.
While higher interest rates can have a cooling effect on the housing market, it's important to consider other factors that could impact the market as well.
One such factor is the strength of Oregon's economy. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon's unemployment rate was 4.2% in Feb 2023, which was lower than the national average. Additionally, the state has seen strong job growth in recent years, particularly in industries like technology and healthcare.
Another factor to consider is the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market. While interest rates are rising, there is still a significant shortage of housing inventory in many parts of Oregon, particularly in urban areas like Portland. This can help support home prices even as interest rates increase.
It's also worth noting that while interest rates have risen in recent months, they are still historically low compared to previous decades. This means that while some buyers may be priced out of the market due to higher rates, there will still be many who can afford to buy homes.
Population growth can also have a significant impact on the housing market. Oregon has been experiencing steady population growth in recent years, with many people moving to the state for its natural beauty, job opportunities, and quality of life. According to the United States Census Bureau, Oregon's population grew by 9.3% between 2010 and 2020, making it the ninth-fastest-growing state in the country.
This population growth has increased the demand for housing, which has helped to drive up home prices in many areas of the state. However, it has also led to a shortage of affordable housing, particularly in urban areas like Portland. As a result, policymakers are exploring ways to address this issue, such as increasing funding for affordable housing programs and encouraging the development of more housing units.
Overall, population growth is likely to continue to have an impact on the Oregon housing market in the coming years. While it will help to sustain demand for housing, it may also exacerbate affordability challenges and put pressure on local governments to address these issues. As such, it is important for investors and homebuyers alike to carefully monitor population trends and their impact on the housing market.
Ultimately, whether the Oregon housing market crashes or not will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the strength of the economy, supply and demand dynamics, and interest rates. While rising interest rates can have an impact on the market, it's important to consider these other factors as well when making predictions about the future of the housing market
Sources:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ORSTHPI#
- https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
- https://www.redfin.com/state/Oregon/housing-market
- https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/real-estate
- https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx