According to Redfin, in July 2022, home prices in Oregon were up 8.7% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $520,000. On average, the number of homes sold was down 27.5% year over year and there were 5,052 homes sold in July this year, down from 6,927 homes sold in July last year. The median days on the market was 16 days, up 5 days year over year.
In July 2022, there were 16,514 homes for sale in Oregon, up 9.8% year over year. The number of newly listed homes was 6,523 and down 18.4% year over year. The average month of supply is 2 months, up 1 year over year. 40.7% of homes in Oregon sold below list price, down 19.3 points year over year. There were only 41.0% of homes that had price drops, up from 28.0% of homes in July last year. There was a 100.4% sale-to-list price, down 2.6 points year over year.
Oregon Housing Market Forecast
According to Zillow, the typical value of homes in Oregon is $524,718. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Oregon home prices have increased by 13.7% over the past year and 36.3% over the last two years.
Here's Zillow's forecast for some of the metro areas in Oregon. Except for Portland, none of these MSAs of Oregon is predicted to see a home price decline in 2023. Rising home values and listing prices, combined with limited inventory, indicate that Oregon's housing market is tilted toward sellers. This trend will likely continue for the foreseeable future unless inventory grows faster than demand or rising interest rates ultimately dampens the demand to that extent.
| Portland, OR home values are forecasted to decline 0.1% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Salem, OR home values are forecasted to rise 3.3% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Eugene, OR home values are forecasted to rise 4% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Medford, OR home values are forecasted to rise 0.7% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Bend, OR home values are forecasted to rise 3.3% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Albany, OR home values are forecasted to rise 4.2% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Roseburg, OR home values are forecasted to rise 4.2% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Hermiston-Pendleton, OR home values are forecasted to rise 3.5% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Corvallis, OR home values are forecasted to rise 3.6% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
| Grants Pass, OR home values are forecasted to rise 0.3% between July 2022 to July 2023. |
Oregon Real Estate Appreciation Rate
According to Neighborhoodscout, Oregon's median home value is around $455,505. The real estate appreciation rate in Oregon in the latest quarter was 3.26%. In the last twelve months, it has been 20.02%. In the last two years, it has been around 31.25% while the cumulative appreciation rate in the last decade has been around 127.68%. Crane, Bend, and Fossil are among the Top ten highest appreciating cities in Oregon since 2000.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?
There is undoubtedly a slowdown in the pace of home sales in the Oregon housing market, but it is more of a return to normalcy. This is neither a crash nor a bubble; housing demand is still present. The slowdown is ideal for buyers who are weary of being outbid in a hot Oregon real estate market or who are experiencing buyer fatigue.
All-Transactions FHFA House Price Index for Oregon (Quarterly)
- Q2 2022: 824.10
- Q1 2022: 778.33
- Q4 2021: 753.47
- Q3 2021: 733.67
- Q2 2021: 691.43
Factors That May Influence the Oregon Housing Market Outlook
When there is a boom in the housing market, it is partially caused by a rise in job growth and a decline in the unemployment rate. Both of these factors work together to bring about the boom. It is impossible to break the connection that exists between the economy and the market for homes. Both the robustness of the economy and the amount of job creation affect the purchasing power of those who are considering buying a property.
Oregon's economy entered the 2019–2021 biennium with job growth that was faster than the nation, and unemployment rates that were at historic lows. Oregon's job growth slowed in the autumn of 2019, however, and by the end of 2019 job growth was lagging behind the nation slightly. But Oregon’s unemployment rate remained at record low levels and was down to 3.3% as 2020 began.
The COVID-19 virus devastated Oregon’s economy as over 90% of businesses across the state identified as having been negatively impacted by the pandemic during the peak of the crisis. Oregon's economic recovery is inextricably linked to the management and control of the public health crisis. Most forecasts and projections predicted a strong recovery from its most recent recession once a reliable COVID-19 vaccine or treatment is available. The unemployment rate is low and many of Oregon’s sectors have made recoveries since the start of the pandemic.
According to new data released by the Oregon Employment Department, the state's unemployment rate remains low. The state's unemployment rate remained at 3.5% in July 2022, the same as it was in June. This reflects the national unemployment rate. According to OED, both Oregon and national employment rates have remained near record lows over the last five months.
In July, Oregon experienced the highest nonfarm job growth in industries such as leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and private educational services. Retail trade was the only industry to experience significant job losses last month, with 700 jobs lost. As of last month, Oregon had recovered 94% of the jobs it had lost at the start of the pandemic, but not all industries had grown equally. The private sector in Oregon has recovered 99% of its pandemic-caused losses, while the government sector has recovered only 49%.
Population growth, particularly household growth, leads to an increase in housing demand. In the long run, population decline may lead to a decrease in housing demand. In 2021, about 4.25 million people lived in Oregon. This was a slight increase from the previous year when about 4.24 million people lived in the state. In 1960, the resident population of Oregon stood at about 1.77 million people.
However, the Portland metro area, which includes Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Columbia, and Yamhill counties, as well as Clark and Skamania counties in Washington, saw a 0.2% drop in population from July 2020 to July 2021, to an estimated 2,511,612 residents. On the other hand, Central Oregon continued to see rapid population growth — among the fastest in the nation.
The Bend metro area in central Oregon, which includes all of Deschutes County, saw its population grow 2.7% — the 13th fastest growth among the nation’s 355 metro areas — to an estimated 204,801 residents. That’s a boost of about 5,446 people in the year ending July 2021, census numbers show.
Home prices are directly affected by demand, which, according to real estate experts, isn't going away anytime soon. However, they are not rising as quickly as they once did, and Oregon real estate agents predict that prices will level off or rise slightly this year. Some of this is most likely due to rising interest rates.
Moderate price appreciation has historically been accompanied by a six-month supply. Construction has slowed for much of the pandemic, owing to labor shortages and supply-chain issues that have made certain materials difficult to obtain. Oregon's housing supply is still well short of a balanced real estate market.
Sources:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ORSTHPI#
- https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
- https://www.redfin.com/state/Oregon/housing-market
- https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/real-estate
- https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx
- https://www.opb.org/article/2022/08/17/oregon-unemployment-rate-employment-department/
- https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2022/pop-estimates-county-metro.html
- https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2022/03/portland-metro-slammed-the-brakes-on-population-growth-in-2021-census-estimates-show.html
