The real estate market is a dynamic and ever-changing landscape that plays a crucial role in the overall economy. For potential homebuyers, sellers, and investors, staying informed about the current house prices and trends is essential for making well-informed decisions. In this blog post, we'll delve into the recent trends and forecasts for Oregon's housing market.
Oregon Housing Market Trends
What is the housing market like right now? According to the data from Redfin, as of October 2023, the median home price in Oregon stands at $490,500, reflecting a 0.75% decrease compared to the previous year. This figure serves as a critical indicator of the housing market's strength and the affordability of homes. The pace at which these prices change can significantly impact both buyers and sellers in the market.
Fastest Growing Sales Prices in Oregon Metros
For those eyeing specific cities within Oregon, some locales have experienced remarkable growth in sales prices. The top 10 metros with the fastest-growing sales prices include Bethany, OR (24.7%), Sherwood, OR (15.6%), and Klamath Falls, OR (15.4%). These statistics underline the dynamic nature of Oregon's housing market.
Housing Supply in Oregon
With 14,318 homes for sale in Oregon as of October 2023, there's a 9.25% decrease in inventory compared to the previous year. The number of newly listed homes has also seen a 14.2% year-over-year decrease. These figures are essential in understanding whether the market favors buyers or sellers, impacting the time a property spends on the market.
Competitiveness in Oregon's Housing Market
The level of competitiveness in the market is reflected in the data for October 2023. 25.7% of homes in Oregon sold above list price, showcasing a competitive landscape. Additionally, a lower percentage of homes (38.6%) had price drops compared to the previous year, indicating a robust market with fewer concessions for buyers.
Most Competitive Cities in Oregon
For those seeking the most competitive environments within Oregon, cities like Marlene Village, Cedar Hills, and Wood Village top the list. This data, calculated using Redfin's Compete Score™, gives potential buyers valuable insights into the areas with heightened competition.
What is Oregon Housing Market Forecast for 2023-2024?
According to Zillow, the average Oregon home value: $487,750, reflecting a modest decrease of 0.9% over the past year, as of October 31, 2023. Homes in the state are garnering attention, going pending in around 21 days.
Inventory and Listings Statistics
- For sale inventory (October 31, 2023): 14,928 homes are currently available on the market.
- New listings (October 31, 2023): 4,213 properties have entered the market recently, indicating ongoing activity.
Sale and List Prices Metrics
- Median sale to list ratio (September 30, 2023): The ratio stands at 1.000, suggesting a balanced market in terms of pricing dynamics.
- Median sale price (September 30, 2023): $486,358 reflects the middle point of sale prices in the state.
- Median list price (October 31, 2023): Homes are listed at a median price of $523,583, providing insights into seller expectations.
Market Dynamics: Sales Performance
- Percent of sales over list price (September 30, 2023): Notably, 32.2% of sales have been closed above the listed price, indicating competitive demand.
- Percent of sales under list price (September 30, 2023): 45.3% of sales have occurred below the listed price, reflecting varied negotiations and buyer opportunities.
Top Metros With Highest Home Decline Forecast for 2024
In examining the forecasted home decline for 2024, several Oregon metros stand out with noteworthy projections, indicating potential challenges in the real estate market.
Medford, OR: This metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in Oregon is anticipated to experience a decline in home values, starting from -0.3% as of 30th November 2023, deepening to -1.1% by 31st January 2024, and further deteriorating to -3.4% by the end of October 2024. The forecast suggests a substantial negative trend, raising concerns about the local housing market.
Grants Pass, OR: Another MSA in Oregon, Grants Pass, is also expected to witness a decline in home values. Starting with a modest -0.2% on 31st October 2023, the decline is projected to intensify, reaching -0.9% by 31st January 2024, and a more significant decrease of -2.8% by the end of October 2024. These projections highlight potential challenges for homeowners and real estate investors in Grants Pass.
Portland, OR: Despite being a major metropolitan area, Portland is not exempt from the forecasted decline. Commencing with a -0.1% decrease on 31st October 2023, the trend is expected to continue with a projected decline of -0.7% by 31st January 2024 and a more substantial drop of -2.7% by 31st October 2024. These figures underscore the broader challenges facing the real estate market in Portland.
Brookings, OR: This coastal town in Oregon is projected to experience a decline in home values as well. The forecast starts with a -0.5% decrease on 31st October 2023, deepening to -1.3% by 31st January 2024, and a milder decline of -1.9% by the end of October 2024. The projections for Brookings highlight the nuanced nature of real estate dynamics in different regions of the state.
Salem, OR: The capital city of Oregon is not immune to the forecasted home value decline. Beginning with a modest -0.1% decrease on 31st October 2023, the projection deepens to -0.4% by 31st January 2024, and a further decline of -1.2% by the end of October 2024. These figures emphasize the challenges facing Salem's real estate market in the coming year.
Eugene, OR: This metropolitan statistical area is anticipated to experience a decline in home values, starting with a modest -0.2% on 31st October 2023. The forecast projects a continued decrease, reaching -0.6% by 31st January 2024, and a further decline of -0.9% by the end of October 2024. Homeowners and investors in Eugene should be mindful of these projections as they navigate the real estate market.
Corvallis, OR: Another MSA in Oregon, Corvallis, presents a mixed forecast. Beginning with a slight increase of 0.1% on 31st October 2023, the trend takes a negative turn with a projected decline of -0.2% by 31st January 2024 and a more substantial decrease of -0.9% by the end of October 2024. These figures indicate the nuanced dynamics at play in Corvallis' real estate market.
Hood River, OR: This scenic area in Oregon is expected to see a relatively mild decline in home values. Commencing with a 0.1% increase on 31st October 2023, the forecast projects a minor decrease of -0.1% by 31st January 2024 and a further decline of -0.6% by the end of October 2024. Homeowners in Hood River should monitor these trends for informed decision-making.
Albany, OR: The forecast for Albany indicates a relatively stable market. Beginning with a marginal -0.1% decrease on 31st October 2023, the trend continues with a projected decline of -0.3% by 31st January 2024 and a more moderate decrease of -0.2% by the end of October 2024. Albany's real estate market appears to navigate the forecasted challenges with some resilience.
The Dalles, OR: This MSA in Oregon is expected to see a relatively mild decline in home values. Commencing with a -0.2% decrease on 31st October 2023, the forecast projects a consistent decline of -0.3% by 31st January 2024 and a minor decrease of -0.1% by the end of October 2024. The Dalles, while experiencing a decline, appears to maintain stability in its real estate market.
Note: The provided data is based on forecasts and projections, and actual market outcomes may vary. Homeowners, buyers, and investors are advised to consider multiple factors and consult with real estate professionals for a comprehensive understanding of local market dynamics.
Will the Housing Market Crash in Oregon?
It's difficult to predict with certainty whether the Oregon housing market will crash or not in response to rising interest rates. While higher interest rates can have a cooling effect on the housing market, it's important to consider other factors that could impact the market as well.
One such factor is the strength of Oregon's economy. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon's unemployment rate was 3.6% in Oct 2023, which was lower than the national average. Additionally, the state has seen strong job growth in recent years, particularly in industries like technology and healthcare.
Another factor to consider is the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market. While interest rates are rising, there is still a significant shortage of housing inventory in many parts of Oregon, particularly in urban areas like Portland. This can help support home prices even as interest rates increase.
It's also worth noting that while interest rates have risen in recent months, they are still historically low compared to previous decades. This means that while some buyers may be priced out of the market due to higher rates, there will still be many who can afford to buy homes.
Population growth can also have a significant impact on the housing market. Oregon has been experiencing steady population growth in recent years, with many people moving to the state for its natural beauty, job opportunities, and quality of life. According to the United States Census Bureau, Oregon's population grew by 9.3% between 2010 and 2020, making it the ninth-fastest-growing state in the country.
This population growth has increased the demand for housing, which has helped to drive up home prices in many areas of the state. However, it has also led to a shortage of affordable housing, particularly in urban areas like Portland. As a result, policymakers are exploring ways to address this issue, such as increasing funding for affordable housing programs and encouraging the development of more housing units.
Overall, population growth is likely to continue to have an impact on the Oregon housing market in the coming years. While it will help to sustain demand for housing, it may also exacerbate affordability challenges and put pressure on local governments to address these issues. As such, it is important for investors and homebuyers alike to carefully monitor population trends and their impact on the housing market.
Ultimately, whether the Oregon housing market crashes or not will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the strength of the economy, supply and demand dynamics, and interest rates. While rising interest rates can have an impact on the market, it's important to consider these other factors as well when making predictions about the future of the housing market
Sources:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ORSTHPI#
- https://www.zillow.com/or/home-values/
- https://www.redfin.com/state/Oregon/housing-market
- https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/or/real-estate
- https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx
