Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in April 2025? Here’s What the Experts Say

Trying to figure out where mortgage rates are heading can feel like trying to predict the weather. One minute it looks sunny, the next there's a chance of rain. If you're thinking about buying a home or refinancing in early 2025, you're probably wondering the same thing I am: Will mortgage rates drop in April 2025? The short answer, based on current data and expert forecasts, is likely no significant drop. Rates are expected to remain fairly stable, potentially seeing a very slight decrease, and hovering around the mid-to-high 6% range for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

It's tough out there for potential homebuyers right now. We've seen rates climb significantly over the past couple of years, and it makes affording a home a real challenge. That's why I've been digging into all the available information to give you a clear picture of what might happen with mortgage rates come April 2025. Let's break down what's influencing these rates and what the experts are predicting.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop in April 2025? Here's What the Experts Say

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now (Late March 2025)

As we wrap up March 2025, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is sitting around 6.75%, according to Bankrate. Even small shifts can make a big difference in your monthly payment. Interestingly, Freddie Mac reported a tiny dip, just two basis points, in the week ending March 27th, bringing their average down to 6.65%. While this is a move in the right direction, it's a pretty small change.

What I find encouraging is that even with these rates, we're seeing some positive signs in the housing market. Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, pointed out that purchase applications have increased this spring. This tells me that even though rates aren't ideal, people are still out there looking to buy, which speaks to the underlying demand in the market.

The Big Players: Economic Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates don't just appear out of thin air. They're heavily influenced by a few key economic factors that I always keep an eye on:

• The Federal Reserve (The Fed) and Their Decisions: The Fed plays a huge role in setting the tone for interest rates across the economy. They control the federal funds rate, which isn't directly the mortgage rate, but it influences borrowing costs for banks, and that eventually trickles down to what we pay for mortgages. In March 2025, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate at 4.5%. This was their second meeting in a row with no change after making three rate cuts in 2024. Experts at Bankrate are forecasting potentially three more rate cuts later in 2025, which could bring the federal funds rate down to 3.75%. However, the next Fed meeting isn't until May, so any impact from future cuts won't be felt in April's mortgage rates. For April, we're likely to see the effects of the current Fed stance.
• How the Economy is Doing (Economic Growth and Inflation): A strong economy can sometimes lead to higher interest rates as demand for borrowing increases. On the flip side, if the economy slows down, rates might ease. Right now, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth for 2025 at 3.3%. Here in the U.S., the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a cooling of economic growth in 2025 and 2026. Inflation is another big one. The Fed wants to get inflation down to around 2%. While it's expected to gradually decline in 2025, projections like the core PCE inflation forecast of 2.8% suggest it will still be above the Fed's target. High inflation can put upward pressure on interest rates, as experts have noted that we might see “higher rates for longer” due to persistent inflation.
• The 10-Year Treasury Yield: This is a really important indicator to watch. The 10-year Treasury yield represents the return investors get on a 10-year U.S. government bond. Mortgage rates tend to follow this yield because mortgage-backed securities are often compared to these safer government bonds. As of late March 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.38%. Forecasts vary a bit, but Bankrate's survey of market professionals suggests it could decrease to around 4.14% by the end of 2025, and Capital Economics has revised their year-end forecast to 4%. Historically, mortgage rates have a spread of about 1.5% to 2.5% above the 10-year Treasury yield. So, if the yield does come down slightly, we might see mortgage rates in the range of 5.8% to 6.8%.

Diving into the Predictions for April 2025

Okay, so with all those factors in mind, what are the experts specifically saying about April 2025? I've been looking at several sources to get a well-rounded view:

• Bankrate's Rate Trend Index: For the very beginning of April 2025, experts surveyed by Bankrate, like Dr. Anthony O. Kellum, don't anticipate much movement. The feeling is that rates will likely stay flat. The reasons? No major changes in the fundamental economic data and a fading of concerns about immediate policy shifts. To me, this signals that we shouldn't expect any dramatic drops right out of the gate in April.
• LongForecast's Outlook: LongForecast actually provides monthly predictions, and for April 2025, they're forecasting an average 30-year mortgage rate of 6.74%. Their range for the month is between a high of 6.91% and a low of 6.55%. This is interesting because it suggests a very slight dip from the current 6.75% average, but nothing substantial. It paints a picture of a relatively stable month.
• U.S. News and Broader Analyst Sentiment: U.S. News has reported that many analysts believe the 30-year fixed rate will likely stay within the 6% to 7% range for the next couple of years, with the bulk of 2025 seeing rates in the mid-6% area. This aligns with the idea of no significant drops in the near term. Business Insider echoes this, suggesting rates might ease a bit throughout 2025, but they're not expecting a return to the really low rates we saw before the pandemic. Even the HomeOwners Alliance notes that while some lenders might be trimming rates slightly in April, persistent high inflation could prevent any major decreases.

Putting It All Together: My Take on April 2025 Mortgage Rates

After sifting through all this data and expert opinions, my own feeling is that we shouldn't get our hopes up for a big drop in mortgage rates in April 2025. It looks like the most likely scenario is that rates will remain pretty much where they are now, possibly with a very minor dip.

Here's a quick summary of what the different forecasts are pointing towards:

Source	Forecast for April 2025	Key Takeaway
Bankrate	Flat, around 6.75%	Minimal movement expected in early April.
LongForecast	Average 6.74% (range 6.55%-6.91%)	Slight potential decrease, but overall stable.
U.S. News	Mid-6% range (6%-7%)	Expect rates to stay within this range throughout 2025.
Business Insider	Slight easing throughout 2025	No major drop anticipated, gradual downward trend.
HomeOwners Alliance	Nudged down, inflation a factor	Some small decreases possible, but high inflation could limit larger drops.

Given that the Fed isn't scheduled to meet again until May, any potential impact from future rate cuts won't be reflected in April's rates. The economic data we have right now suggests a slowing but still growing economy with inflation that's coming down but is still above the target. These factors tend to keep interest rates from falling sharply.

However, and this is something important to keep in mind, the economic landscape can change quickly. Unexpected news or shifts in market sentiment could always lead to some volatility in mortgage rates.

What This Means for You

If you're planning to buy a home or refinance in April 2025, my advice would be to be realistic about where rates are likely to be. Don't wait around expecting a big drop that probably isn't going to happen. Instead:

• Keep a close eye on the market: Stay informed about any new economic data releases and expert analyses.
• Shop around for the best rates: Even in a stable rate environment, different lenders will offer slightly different rates and fees. It pays to compare multiple offers.
• Consider your individual financial situation: Decide what rate and monthly payment you're comfortable with and make a move when you find a suitable option.

One interesting tidbit I came across was Bankrate's mention that some forecasts suggest mortgage rates might even spike briefly above 7% later in 2025, although this isn't predicted for April. This just goes to show that there's still some uncertainty in the market, and rates could fluctuate.

Ultimately, while a significant drop in mortgage rates in April 2025 seems unlikely, the market is constantly evolving. By staying informed and being prepared, you can make the best decisions for your homeownership goals.